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Greater Toronto Area Office Market

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Greater Toronto Area Office Market Research & Forecast Report GREATER TORONTO AREA OFFICE MARKET Second Quarter 2018 Table of Contents Market Summaries GTA Market Overview ....................................................................................................4 Downtown ............................................................................................................... 5 Midtown .................................................................................................................. 6 GTA North-East ....................................................................................................... 7 GTA West ................................................................................................................ 8 Notable Transactions & Key Statistics ...................................................................... 9 Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 10 GTA Market Overview • Toronto continues to lead the top 10 North American Market Indicators Market Q2 Market Q2 Trend Central Business Districts with the lowest vacancy rate Relative to prior period 2017 2018 (1.6%); New York is the second lowest with a of 6.6%. Net Absorption 885,765 46,447 • Robust demand for flexible, sustainable and high- Vacancy Rate 5.8% 4.4% quality space remains a common denominator across the GTA, spurring new office developments in Availability Rate 8.4% 6.6% attempts to satisfy demand. Average Asking Net Rent $19.42 $19.32 • Cadillac Fairview announced the construction of 160 GTA Lease Transactions by Industry Front St W a 46-storey office tower featuring 1.2 M SF GTA Lease Transactions by Industry Q2 2018 in the heart of the Financial Core that is scheduled to open in Q3 2022. 4% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20% Technology, Advertising & Media 37% Information • Three office buildings were constructed this quarter in Healthcare, Education & Government the GTA West market, adding 160,600 SF of new 3% Legal office inventory. 14% Other • IBM is giving back 173,000 SF of their space in the 22% Schedule I Banks Woodbine/Steeles complex, constituting the largest available block of space in the Central East market. The investment market saw a total of $715 M in office sale transactions across the GTA in Q2, down from $1.8 B • Rental rates in regions located near major in Q1. This decline was due to the lack of Downtown transportation systems coupled with new retail transactions, where the largest deal was the sale of the completions or improvements continue to climb faster Parkway Place complex in North York for a total YoY than their counterparts in less-accessible areas. consideration of $256.25 M. The GTA West market saw a Downtown asking net rents grew by 6.1% YoY, while fair amount of transactions this quarter (23% of the GTA the GTA West and Midtown continued to see modest volume), highlighted by the Rogers acquisition of 1004 growth (3.5% and 1.3%). Middlegate Rd in Mississauga for $65 M. GTA Market HistoricalGTA Marketand Forecasted Historical Trend: Performance 2014 - 2020 and Forecast: 2014 - 2020 2,500,000 10.0% 2,000,000 8.0% 1,500,000 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 1,000,000 4.0% 500,000 2.0% 0 0.0% -500,000 -2.0% Vacancy Rate (%) Total Square Feet (SF) -1,000,000 -4.0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Note: 10-Year Historical Absorption is 390,000 SF per Quarter 4 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2018 | Greater Toronto Area / Office | Colliers International Downtown Summary Statistics Q2 2018 Regional Office Market 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 Trend Though Toronto’s Downtown market is the sixth largest central business district (CBD) in North America, it is the Net Absorption 482,863 147,913 tightest, at 1.6% vacancy (down from 1.8% in Q1 2018), for current and prospective tenants. In response to the growing Vacancy Rate 4.5% 1.6% pent-up demand, landlords such as First Gulf and Cadillac Fairview have announced the construction of 25 Ontario Availability Rate 7.3% 3.7% St (460,000 SF) and 160 Front St W (1,450,000 SF). 160 Front St W, slated for occupancy in the fall of 2022, will be Average Asking Net Rent $28.91 $30.68 kicked-off by the Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan, who will be relocating from 5650 Yonge St in the North Yonge Corridor. 25 Ontario St will begin construction without landing an anchor tenant and is slated for completion in Q2 2021. Rental rates across AAA, A and B product continued to climb Downtown Lease Transactions by Industry (+6.12% YoY) this quarter with the largest increase amongst Q2Downtown 2018 Lease Transactions by Industry B-Class product (+11.01% YoY), which has lost 55% of its HEG Legal vacant space over the past five years. As product continues Schedule I 3% 2% to become scarcer and demand increases, rental rates should Banks continue rising above historical averages. 7% This quarter saw the leasing of many current and future large-block availabilities. Tim Hortons announced in early FIRE Other Q2 their intentions to relocate from Oakville to the Financial 43% Core by year-end, Google inked an expansion at 100 Adelaide 17% St W and elected to renew its lease at 111 Richmond St W, and OneEleven, one of Canada’s leading tech-ventures signed a 50,000 SF lease at 325 Front Street West to reflect its continued growth. Harlequin has also announced it will be TAMI relocating from the Central East submarket, to occupy two 28% floors at 22 Adelaide St W. Lastly, CIBC Square’s first phase, 81 Bay, has attracted multiple suitors looking to secure their future tenancy and is now rumoured to be fully leased. DowntownDowntown Market Historical Market and Forecasted Historical Trend: Performance 2014 - 2020 and Forecast: 2014 - 2020 2,000,000 6.0% 1,500,000 4.5% 3.6% 1,000,000 3.0% 1.6% 500,000 1.5% 0 0.0% Vacancy Rate (%) Total Square Feet (SF) -500,000 -1.5% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Note: 10-Year Historical Absorption is 265,000 SF per Quarter Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2018 | Greater Toronto Area / Office | Colliers International 5 Midtown Summary Statistics Q2 2018 Regional Office Market 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 Trend The Midtown market hit yet another record-low vacancy rate of just 1.3% (a -30 bps decline from Q1 2018) as it reported a solid Net Absorption 47,005 51,293 51,293 SF of positive absorption this quarter. Net asking rental rates also grew by 1.3% YoY; the increase was primarily driven Vacancy Rate 3.0% 1.3% by the Yonge-Bloor submarket which saw a hike of +6.5% YoY. For the first time in more than ten years, the Midtown is Availability Rate 4.9% 3.6% set to take on new supply as the construction at the Bathurst College Centre is nearing completion and is slated to open Average Asking Net Rent $22.33 $22.61 in fall 2018. Once completed, it will add 70,000 SF of office space to the total inventory; 40,000 SF of which is already pre-leased. There is an additional 360,000 SF of planned office developments in the pipeline for the Midtown market that could offer some ease ot the much-tightened market. Midtown Lease Transactions by Industry The City of Toronto received nine residential/mixed-use Q2Midtown 2018 Lease Transactions by Industry development applications in the past three months across the Midtown market, most of which are located within the Yonge- Eglinton submarket. The increase of development activity in this submarket is very much anticipated as the construction TAMI of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT is well underway, targeting 12% completion in 2021. FIRE From an investment standpoint, the overall transaction volume Other 46% in the Midtown market was $111 M spread across all asset 18% classes. The multi-family sector was the leading asset this quarter (67%) followed by retail (28%), while office recorded just one office condo sale transaction. The most notable deal this quarter pertains to the sale of 41-45 Spadina Road, a low- HEG rise multi-family building for almost $21 M, corresponding to 24% $872,917 price per unit. Midtown MarketMidtown Historical Market and Forecasted Historical Trend: Performance 2014 - 2020 and Forecast: 2014 - 2020 100,000 10.0% 1.3% 50,000 1.0% 5.0% 0 0.0% -50,000 -5.0% -100,000 -10.0% -150,000 -15.0% -200,000 -20.0% Vacancy Rate (%) Total Square Feet (SF) -250,000 -25.0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Note: 10-Year Historical Absorption is 11,750 SF per Quarter 6 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2018 | Greater Toronto Area / Office | Colliers International GTA North-East Summary Statistics Q2 2018 Regional Office Market 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 Trend Despite experiencing a statistically weak quarter, the GTA North/East Market’s vacancy continues to decline YoY (-0.1% Net Absorption 72,344 (305,078) YoY). The large sources of negative absorption were IBM’s office at 3600 Steeles Ave E (172,000 SF), and Harlequins’s Vacancy Rate 5.7% 5.6% office at 225 Duncan Mill (111,000 SF). Should these two vacancies be discounted, the Central East submarket fared a Availability Rate 5.9% 7.4% healthy quarter of absorption (+37,508 SF) relative to its 10- year historical average (-13,821 SF per quarter). Average Asking Net Rent $15.54 $15.96 The North Yonge Corridor has struggled in recent quarters with tenants such as SAP and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan relocating to the Downtown Core, coupled with the premise that vacancy has nearly doubled over the past five years.
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