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2014 Global Strategy Outlook Morgan Stanley & Co

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2014 Global Strategy Outlook Morgan Stanley & Co December 2, 2013 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH GLOBAL STRATEGY TEAM 2014 Global Strategy Outlook Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Jason Draho Fertile Soils, Rising Divergences Matthew Hornbach Sivan Mahadevan Adam S. Parker Rashique Rahman “We’re farming the fertile soils on the slopes of the volcano, even Vishwanath Tirupattur though it has already started to smoke.” Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Paolo Batori Investor at a Morgan Stanley Research Conference, 2004 Neil McLeish Our strategic allocation remains equities over bonds, and Hans Redeker Graham Secker corporate bonds over government bonds. The global expansion will Andrew Sheets remain intact per our Economics team’s baseline, and equities and Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ corporate bonds are not overvalued, either outright or relative to Jonathan Garner government bonds. With DM risk asset returns lower but still positive, Viktor Hjort the trend towards the ‘fertile soils’ of alpha that started in 2013 will continue (see Key Investment Ideas, page 3). MS Asset Class Views (6 months) However, we believe we’re in the latter half of the current cycle. Global Asset Allocation – + Equities The current equity and credit bull markets are nearing their fifth Credit anniversary and face a transition from a liquidity-driven world to one Government Bonds that is more growth-dependent. Stronger growth will support profits but Cash also boost volatility, especially in government bond markets. This is the Equities – + ‘smoking volcano’ that will periodically impact markets in 2014. US Europe Challenging regional transitions will provide alpha opportunities. Japan AxJ In Europe, disinflation and richer valuations make differentiation more EM important, and we downgrade European equity and credit markets to Credit – + Neutral overall. Despite challenges, we expect Japan to make further US progress; we remain bearish JPY and bullish Japanese equities. We Europe Asia remain broadly constructive on US equities, housing and spread EM product. Securitized Government Bonds – + EM should continue its broad underperformance. EM does not yet Treasuries trade at a material discount to DM and we believe the fundamental Bunds adjustment process has further to run. Differentiation is an important JGBs EM Local caveat, even within specific markets; we’re bullish on China equities FX – + due to the positive medium-term reform agenda, but cautious on China USD credit because of near-term deleveraging. EUR JPY EM We expect the USD rally to broaden out on the strength of higher relative US growth rates and returns, eventually leading to a breakout Note: The rankings are relative within each asset class from a multi-year range trade. EM FX should underperform but also Note: Jonathan Garner, Adam Parker and Graham Secker provide alpha opportunities; we favour PLN, KRW, ILS and MXN, and are Equity Analysts and they are not opining on fixed income securities. Their views are clearly delineated. underweight BRL, IDR, TRY, RUB, ZAR and INR. Due to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or bonds of the issuers recommended or discussed in this report may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or bonds of the issuers. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications Christel Cowleywith a subject 12/04/13 company, 12:17:33public appearances PM BNP and trading Paribas securities held by a research analyst account.* MORGAN STANLEY RESEA RCH December 2, 2013 Global Strategy Table of Contents Fertile Soils, Rising Divergences ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Government Bonds: Volatility Ahead ................................................................................................................................. 8 FX: EM Weakness, Then USD Strength .......................................................................................................................... 11 Equities: Sticking with DM preference .............................................................................................................................. 14 Credit: A Market of Many.................................................................................................................................................. 17 Morgan Stanley Key Market Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 20 Morgan Stanley Key Economic Forecast Profile .............................................................................................................. 21 Morgan Stanley Government Bond Yield Forecasts ........................................................................................................ 22 Morgan Stanley Global Currency Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 23 Global Strategy Team Contributors to this Report Jason Draho1 +1 (212) 761-7893 [email protected] Felipe Hernandez1 +1 (212) 296-4996 [email protected] Matthew Hornbach1 +1 (212) 761-1837 [email protected] Sivan Mahadevan1 +1 (212) 761-1349 [email protected] Adam S. Parker1 +1 (212) 761-1755 [email protected] Rashique Rahman1 +1 (212) 761-6533 [email protected] Adam Richmond1 +1 (212) 761-1485 [email protected] Vishwanath Tirupattur1 +1 (212) 761-1043 [email protected] Michael Zezas1 +1 (212) 761-8609 [email protected] Paolo Batori2 +44 (0)20 7677-7971 [email protected] Anton Heese2 +44 (0)20 7677-6951 [email protected] James Lord2 +44 (0)20 7677 3254 [email protected] Neil McLeish2 +44 (0)20 7677-7481 [email protected] Anthony O’Brien2 +44 (0)20 7677-7748 [email protected] Hans Redeker2 +44 (0)20 7425-2430 [email protected] Graham Secker2 +44 (0)20 7425-6188 [email protected] Andrew Sheets2 +44 (0)20 7677-2905 [email protected] Jonathan Garner3 +852 2848-7288 [email protected] Viktor Hjort3 +852 2848-7479 [email protected] Geoff Kendrick3 +852 2239-7399 [email protected] Kewei Yang3 +852 3963-0562 [email protected] Le Ngoc Nhan6 +813 5424-7698 [email protected] 1 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC 3 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ 5 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+ 2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ 4 Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ 6 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ 2 Christel Cowley 12/04/13 12:17:33 PM BNP Paribas MORGAN STANLEY RESEA RCH December 2, 2013 Global Strategy – + Equities Credit Government Bonds Fertile Soils, Rising Divergences Cash Neil McLeish Jason Draho Key 2014 Investment Themes Base Case: DM equities remain our top pick but we “We’re farming the fertile soils on the slopes of the volcano, expect only about 10% upside. Corporate bonds should even though it has already started to smoke” continue to outperform government bonds despite rising Investor at a Morgan Stanley Research Conference, 2004 idiosyncratic risk that favours alpha. Remain constructive on US asset prices, but hedge with a long Our strategic asset allocation for 2014 remains the same as it position in US interest rate volatility. EM should continue was throughout 2013: equities over bonds, and corporate to underperform due to an unfinished fundamental bonds over government bonds. Despite strong performance adjustment process. We downgrade European equity this year, the MSCI World P/B multiple is only in line with its and credit markets to Neutral, but peripheral bond 40-year average, DM credit spreads are similarly spreads will likely still grind tighter. The USD rally is undemanding, and critically our Economics team’s baseline likely to broaden out from the EM axis. Remain forecast shows a clearly intact global expansion through 2015 constructive on Japanese equities and bearish JPY. (see 2014 Global Macro Outlook: Five Key Transitions). Bull case: US growth accelerates only gradually, inflation eases further and DM central banks become However, we believe we have already entered the second half even more accommodative across the board. Equities of this market cycle, which has several important implications perform closer to the 2013 experience. summed up in a memorable observation regarding volcanoes from a Morgan Stanley client during a prior cycle. Specifically, Bear case: The transition from liquidity to growth-driven lower market returns and challenging regional divergences markets goes awry. DM inflation trends higher, with US inflation
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