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Apbn Dan Apbd Kajian Fiskal Regional Tahunan (Annual Regional Fiscal Report) Provinsi Kepulauan Riau Tahun 2017 KATA PENGANTAR Dengan mengucapkan syukur Alhamdulillah, kita panjatkan kepada Allah SWT atas limpahan rahmat dan hidayah-Nya sehingga kita dapat menyelesaikan Kajian Fiskal Regional Provinsi Kepulauan Riau Tahun 2017 dengan baik. Kajian Fiskal Regional diterbitkan oleh Kantor Wilayah Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan Provinsi Kepulauan Riau berdasarkan Peraturan Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan Nomor 30/PB/2013 dan Surat Edaran Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan Nomor SE-61/PB/2017 sebagai sarana untuk membangun komunikasi dua arah dalam pertukaran data dan informasi baik dengan stakeholders internal maupun eksternal. Dengan demikian, diharapkan para pemangku kepentingan dalam hal ini Pemerintah Daerah, Satuan Kerja Pemerintah Pusat, pelaku usaha, serta akademisi di lingkup Provinsi Kepulauan Riau dapat memperoleh masukan dalam merumuskan kebijakan pengembangan ekonomi daerah, sehingga bisa memberikan manfaat untuk pembangunan daerah dan peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat di masa mendatang. Adapun beberapa aspek yang menjadi bahasan utama dalam kajian adalah perkembangan ekonomi regional, perkembangan keuangan pemerintah pusat dan daerah, keunggulan dan potensi daerah, serta tantangan fiskal yang dihadapi daerah. Dalam penyusunan Kajian Fiskal Regional Provinsi Kepulauan Riau Tahun 2017 ini kami banyak memperoleh dukungan dari Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Kepulauan Riau, Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Kepulauan Riau, dan Seluruh Pemerintah Daerah Lingkup Provinsi Kepulauan Riau. Oleh karena itu, kami menyampaikan apresiasi yang sebesar-besarnya kepada semua pihak, semoga kerjasama yang telah terjalin selama ini dapat lebih ditingkatkan di masa yang akan datang. Kami menyadari penyusunan Kajian Fiskal Regional ini masih jauh dari sempurna, untuk itu kami mengharapkan kritik dan saran dalam meningkatkan kualitas Kajian Fiskal Regional ini agar dapat memberikan manfaat yang optimal, terutama untuk kemakmuran masyarakat Kepulauan Riau. Tanjungpinang, Februari 2017 Kepala Kantor Heru Pudyo Nugroho NIP 19721112 199803 1 002 KANWIL DITJEN PERBENDAHARAAN PROVINSI KEPULAUAN RIAU i TIM PENYUSUN KAJIAN FISKAL REGIONAL PROVINSI KEPULAUAN RIAU TAHUN 2017 KANWIL DITJEN PERBENDAHARAAN PROVINSI KEPULAUAN RIAU Penanggungjawab: Kepala Kanwil DItjen Perbendaharaan Provinsi Kepulauan Riau Heru Pudyo Nugroho Ketua Kepala Bidang PPA II Edy Sutriono Wakil Ketua: Haryando Anil Penulis: Dhika Habibi Zakaria Haryando Anil Desain Cover dan Layout: Dhika Habibi Zakaria Kontributor: Jaruli Simanullang Mas Nursanto Benjamin Franklin Marudur Manurung BIDANG PEMBINAAN PELAKSANAAN ANGGARAN II ii RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF Kondisi laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Kepri mengalami perlambatan semenjak 5 (lima) tahun terakhir. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Kepri berada pada angka 2,01 persen (yoy) dan yang merupakan angka terendah dibandingkan dengan angka pertumbuhan ekonomi pada periode yang sama selama kurun waktu 2012-2017. Melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi Kepri di dorong oleh lesunya sektor industri pengolahan (43,91 persen), konstruksi (20,42 persen) dan pertambangan (18,08 persen) yang merupakan sektor dominan dari sisi penawaran. Dari sisi permintaan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Kepri dipengaruhi oleh Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto (PDRB) (38,13 persen) dan Konsumsi Rumah Tangga (37,45 persen). Inflasi Kepri 2017 terjaga di 3,61 persen (target 4±1%), penyumbangan inflasi tertinggi ada pada kelompok bahan makanan yang sangat sensitif terhadap kondisi cuaca dan gelombang laut (menghambat jalur distribusi). Dengan IPM sebesar 73,99, Kepri berada pada peringkat IPM ke-empat tertinggi di Indonesia. Hal tersebut mengindikasikan keberhasilan percepatan pembangunan di Kepri khususnya dalam bidang pendidikan, kesehatan dan ekonomi. Namun bila dilihat secara parsial, masih terdapat 3 Kabupaten/Kota yang memiliki IPM di bawah Nasional (70.18) yakni Kabupaten Karimun (69,84), Kabupaten Lingga (62,44), dan Kabupaten Kepulauan Anambas (66,30). Tingkat kemiskinan (6,13 persen) dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) (7,16 persen) mengalami peningkatan, diduga merupakan dampak dari lesunya pertumbuhan ekonomi di Kepri yang sangat dipengaruhi oleh kondisi perekonomian global. Tren negatif pertumbuhan ekonomi Kepri dianggap sebagai penyebab mayor turunnya pendapatan Pemerintah Pusat. Realisasi pendapatan Pemerintah Pusat tahun 2017 sebesar 7,43 triliun, turun -4,65 persen dari tahun 2016 yang sebesar Rp7,78 triliun. Penambahan basis pajak dari hasil program Tax Amnesty 2016-2017 belum mampu memperbaiki penerimaan pajak di akhir 2017. Namun terjadi peningkatan belanja Pemerintah Pusat sebesar Rp1,08 triliun dari belanja Pemerintah Pusat tahun 2016 sebesar Rp5,22 triliun. Kondisi ini menyebabkan melebarnya celah defisit APBN Kepri sebesar 7,80 persen (yoy) dengan nominal Rp5,63 triliun. Defisit APBN Kepri tersebut belum memperhitungkan PNBP Sumber Daya Alam (SDA) yang dicatat langsung sebagai penerimaan di Pusat. Selanjutnya, Alokasi Dana Transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa untuk Kepri pada tahun 2017 mencapai Rp7,55 triliun, turun -7,65 persen dibandingkan tahun 2016. Harga migas yang terus terkoreksi turun di tahun 2017 merupakan salah satu satu faktor pendorong anjloknya total penerimaan Transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa pada tahun 2017. KANWIL DITJEN PERBENDAHARAAN PROVINSI KEPULAUAN RIAU iii Selain penggunaan instrumen dana APBN, pemerintah pusat berupaya mendorong laju perekonomian Kepri melalui penyaluran Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR). Penyaluran KUR pada tahun 2017 mencapai Rp390,69 triliun mengalami penurunan 37,89 persen dari penyaluran tahun lalu. Penurunan tersebut diduga karena gaung rencana kebijakan pemerintah yang akan menurunkan suku bunga KUR menjadi 7 persen, sehingga masyarakat menahan diri untuk melakukan peminjaman KUR di tahun 2018. Berdasarkan sektor ekonomi, penyaluran KUR 2017 didominasi oleh sektor perdagangan dengan 65,24%, sedangkan berdasarkan skema penyaluran didominasi oleh KUR Mikro dengan porsi 58.02%. Jika dilihat letak geografis Kepri yang bertetangga dengan Malaysia dan Singapura, seharusnya penyaluran KUR skema TKI menjadi skema yang dominan di salurkan di Kepri. Namun di tahun 2017 tidak terdapat penyaluran KUR TKI di Kepri. Rendahnya penyaluran ditengarai bersumber dari maraknya praktek TKI ilegal sehingga calon TKI, TKI dan Purna TKI tidak memiliki dokumen resmi dan untuk mengajukan pinjaman KUR. Alokasi dan realisasi APBD lingkup Kepri dalam tren membaik pada tahun 2017. Capaian realisasi pendapatan APBD turun 2,43 persen dari tahun 2016, namun secara nominal realisasi tahun 2017 yang lebih tinggi Rp55,96 miliar dari tahun 2016. Kebijakan penyaluran DAK Fisik Tambahan Penyelesaian Tahun 2016 yang di- carry over ke tahun 2017 membawa dampak positif pada celah fiskal APBD lingkup Kepri. Dari sisi pelaksanaan APBD, kinerja pendapatan asli daerah pada tahun 2017 dapat dikatakan cukup baik dengan indikasi peningkatan PAD sebesar 27,11 persen dari tahun 2016. Terjadi peningkatan pada komponen hasil pengelolaan kekayaan daerah yang dipisahkan sebesar 65,40 persen. Hal ini di dorong oleh penerimaan laba atas penyertaan modal pada BUMD yang melebihi target yang telah ditetapkan. Dari alokasi belanja APBD, hampir semua urusan mengalami kenaikan anggaran dengan rata-rata peningkatan 48,31 persen. Berdasarkan porsinya, urusan yang mendapatkan porsi alokasi terbesar merupakan urusan Administrasi Pemerintahan (35,38 persen), Pendidikan (19,37 persen), Kesehatan (11,32 persen), dan Pekerjaan Umum (10,55 persen). Porsi belanja tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan Pemda menitikberatkan pada pelayanan pada masyarakat, pembangunan sumber daya manusia melalui pendidikan dan kesehatan, serta pembangunan infrastruktur untuk menunjang perekonomian. Hal tersebut juga tergambar dari, pengalokasian belanja berdasarkan jenis belanja. Jeni Belanja Langsung yang berhubungan langsung dengan pencapaian program dan kegiatan Pemda memiliki porsi terbesar yaitu sebesar 58,34 persen, dibandingkan dengan porsi Belanja Tidak Langsung sebesar 42,66 persen. Namun dari sisi eksekusi APBD, Belanja Langsung BIDANG PEMBINAAN PELAKSANAAN ANGGARAN II iv hanya terealisasi sebesar 88,22 persen lebih kecil dari realisasi Belanja Tidak Langsung yang terealisasi sebesar 94,22 persen. Kemudian untuk mengukur kesehatan fiskal masing-masing Pemerintah Daerah di Kepri, dilakukan Ten Point Test yang dikembangkan oleh Kenneth W. Brown (1993). Dalam ten point test, setiap rasio yang digunakan mengarah pada empat aspek kesehatan fiskal yaitu pendapatan, pengeluaran, posisi operasi dan struktur utang. Dari hasil tes di peroleh bahwa Pemda Kabupaten Bintan memiliki tingkat kesehatan fiskal paling baik di Kepri. Pemda Kabupaten Bintan berhasil menggeser Pemda Kota Batam yang pada tahun 2016 berada pada posisi terbaik, memperoleh nilai tertinggi di 2 (dua) indikator penilaian yaitu: (1) Kemampuan mendanai Belanja Daerah, dan (2) Optimalisasi SiLPA. Dari sisi Belanja Konsolidasian, komposisi belanja didominasi oleh belanja yang bersifat konsumtif. Komposisi belanja barang dan belanja pegawai yang masing-masing porsinya sebesar 40,88 persen dan 28,19 persen jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan belanja modal sebesar 21,63 persen. Dari analisis dampak kebijakan fiskal kesejahteraan regional, diketahui bahwa laju tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat tidak linier dengan peningkatan alokasi anggaran oleh pemerintah. Ketidaklinearan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan anggaran yang digunakan oleh pemerintah tidak serta merta meningkatkan
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