11th August 2020

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HIGHLIGHTS

• Worldwide cases of COVID-19 have now surpassed 20 million with the global tally now at 20,269,874 cases and 739,445 deaths, with 13,199,405 having recovered according to Worldometer.

• Reuters have reported that France and Germany have decided to exit talks over how best to reform the World Health Organisation due to the United States’ continued desire to take control of the discussions despite having decided to leave the organisation.

• The African Union has called for ‘aggressive and bold’ action after COVID-19 cases on the continent surpassed 1 million.

• A new study published by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has found that Hispanic children were around eight times more likely to be hospitalised by COVID-19 than white children and black children are five times more likely.

• The United States reached a new milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic on 8th August by being the first country to reach 5 million COVID-19 cases, which equates to one in every 66 residents being infected with the virus.

• On 9th August New Zealand were able to celebrate 100 days without a domestic transmission of COVID- 19.

• On 10th August, Greece’s top infectious disease experts formally reported that they have entered a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The potential for a ‘trade war’ between Canada and the United States could occur following a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminium imposed by the Trump administration.

• Protests in Beirut have escalated to violence resulting in more than 100 injured and the death of a Lebanese policeman following the recent port explosion. President Michel Aoun accepted the resignation of the countries cabinet with political leaders calling for more than a third of the sitting MPs to quit parliament in order to force new elections.

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COVID-19

TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES TOTAL DEATHS PATIENTS RECOVERED 739,445 20,269,874 13,199,045

11.08.2020 - Worldometer

COVID-19 – UK

• The total confirmed UK COVID-19 cases as of 10th August is 311,641 with 46,526 deaths. Latest figures can be found here. • The mandatory wearing of facemasks has now been expanded to include museums, places of worship and aquariums in England and Scotland. Additionally, the wearing of a mask is compulsory in England for cinemas and funeral homes, and in Scotland for banks and beauty salons. • After a rise in COVID-19 cases the town of Preston in Lancashire has had to re-impose COVID-19 restrictions. The new restrictions will mean that different households, with the exclusion of social bubbles, will no longer be able to meet in homes, private gardens, pubs, or restaurants. • Wales has eased its lockdown allowing gyms, swimming pools, leisure centres and children’s play areas to reopen. • Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has said there is little evidence of COVID-19 being transmitted in schools, according to a large-scale study due to be published later this year. Schools are planned to reopen from today in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and next month in England. • Hit hard by COVID-19, and relying on advertising for 80% of its revenues, the Evening Standard has announced plans to cut a third of its employees. Over the past three years the Evening Standard has made a loss of £40 million. • As much as 40% of grades submitted by teachers for A-Level exams will be downgraded by the exam regulator Ofqual after teachers were deemed to have marked too softly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. • First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has apologised for how exam results in Scotland have been handled. All school exams in Scotland were cancelled this year due to the pandemic, and pupils’ results were decided by the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) based on teacher assessments. However, the system has been criticised after the moderation metric used resulted in around 125,000 estimates being downgraded which many pupils, parents, and teachers alike have said is unfair. Education Secretary John Swinney is due to announce the government’s plans to rectify the issue today. • The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) has reduced its energy price cap in response to falling prices in the energy market as a result of COVID-19. Consequently, up to 15 million houses are expected to receive lower energy bills this winter. • 40 prison officers in HMP Low Moss in East Dunbartonshire have had to quarantine after a prison officer tested positive for COVID-19. Prisons are also isolating and visits to the effected wing have been suspended. • Up to 750,000 unused COVID-19 kits produced by Randox for use in care homes and for individuals have had to be recalled after concerns over safety standards such as the sterility of the test.

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COVID-19- OTHER COUNTRIES

Australia The 9th August marked Australia’s deadliest day of the pandemic so far with the state of Victoria reporting 17 deaths as a result of COVID-19.

Cuba New COVID-19 measures have been imposed in the Cuban capital, Havana, after a resurgence of the virus. The government have ordered the closure of restaurants, bars, and pools, as well as the suspension of public transport and the blocking of beach access.

France Wearing face masks is now compulsory in busy parts of Paris as cases of COVID-19 rise in the capital. The rules apply to all those 11 years old and over, in “certain very crowded zones”. Those breaching the order could get a fine of €135 and six months in prison if found to have violated the order three times. The order will last for a month.

Ghana A BBC investigation has found that some staff in Ghanaian hospitals have been selling essential PPE such as face shields, masks, and suits for personal gain. Lack of PPE has been a severe issue in the country, and more than 2000 medical workers have contracted the COVID-19 since the pandemic began.

Greece Greece reported 203 new cases of COVID-19 on 9th August. The highest daily tally since the start of the outbreak in the country. This latest rise in new COVID-19 cases has led to top infectious disease experts in the country formally reporting that Greece has now entered its second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ireland The Republic of Ireland are currently contending with outbreaks in three of their 26 counties. New restrictions have been imposed in County Kildare, Laois and Offaly with residents only allowed to leave their counties for ‘limited circumstances’ as well as restaurants only being allowed to serve food to small groups outside.

Israel Thousands of Israelis have continued to rally outside the house of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem on Saturday 8th August. Anger is mounting over allegations of corruption and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Your time is up” has been projected onto a building in giant red letters at the protest site.

Italy On 7th August, the number of new COVID-19 cases rose by 38% with 552 more cases than 6th August. Italy have not registered such a rise in new cases since late May.

Malta The Mediterranean island has re-implemented COVID-19 restrictions after a new rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths. The new measures will include restrictions on public gatherings as well as restrictions on nursing home visits, including the requirement for visitors to remain behind Perspex screens.

Morocco The European Union have removed Morocco from its list of countries that the organisation allows non-essential travel too. The list, which contains countries deemed to have the virus under control, now only numbers 10 and includes Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, and Uruguay.

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Norway In a bid to prevent a resurgence of the virus in the country, Norway have advised its citizens to avoid all travel abroad.

Russia It has been reported that the number of deaths in Russia for the month of June has risen 18.6% to 162,758 from last year. These figures are for ‘all-cause mortality’, including COVID-19, and are used to gain a better perspective on the virus’ impact outside of the obvious.

Ukraine In order to control the spread of COVID-19 in the country, the Ukrainian government have made the decision to temporarily close its border with Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia since 2014.

United States of America The USA has continued its resurgence from COVID-19 in the jobs sector having seen the unemployment rate fall from 11.1% to 10.2%, falling for three months in a row. The US economy added 1.8 million jobs in July alone.

Useful Information Sources  UK wide – Public Health England  Scotland – Scottish Government  Northern Ireland – NISRA  COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales – ONS  COVID-19 Statistics – Worldometer – Johns Hopkins University

WORLD NEWS

Afghanistan The Afghan government agreed on Sunday 9th August to release 400 “hard-core” Taliban prisoners in an effort to aid the peace talks. This is the last batch of 5,000 prisoners to be freed as a condition for the Taliban militants to join the peace talks

Brazil Wildfires in the Brazilian Amazon in July have risen by 28% in comparison to last year. The NGO Amazon Conservation have already tracked 62 major fires, up to 30th July, this year. In some better news, deforestation in the region has fallen by 27% in July in comparison to last year.

China China has continued in its retaliation against Canada’s arrest of the Chinese Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou, having sentenced the Canadian national Ye Jianhui to death on 7th August for drug trafficking in Guangdong. Since the arrest of Meng Wanzhou two years ago in 2018 China have sentenced four Canadian citizens to death on drugs charges.

The US treasury department has announced that they have imposed sanctions on the Hong Kong leader, as well as 10 other senior Chinese and Hong Kong officials, in response to the continued suppression of free speech and political freedoms in the territory.

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Hong Kong business tycoon Jimmy Lai has been arrested for suspected collusion with foreign forces. The businessman has been held under the controversial national security law imposed in June. Mr Lai has been a prominent supporter of the pro-democracy protests that occurred in Hong Kong last year. His media premises

have also been searched by police. Mr Lai is estimated to be worth more than $1 billion and holds dual UK citizenship.

Canada The Trump administration has announced a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminium which could potentially begin a trade war between the two countries as Canada responded by announcing that it would ‘retaliate dollar for dollar’.

India A COVID-19 repatriation flight carrying 190 Indians skidded off the runway whilst landing at Kozhikode killing 18 and injuring 123 more.

Lebanon Protests in Beirut are being planned to pay respects to those who died in the recent port explosion, as well as to call for the overthrow of the country’s political system. The United Nations has said they have not received an official request from the Lebanese government to investigate the blast, but French President Emmanuel Macron has called for an international inquiry. The French president has said the country’s future is “at stake”.

Dozens of protestors have entered the Foreign Ministry in Beirut during a wider demonstration over last week’s port explosion. Sounds of gunfire were also heard from central Martyrs’ Square. The Prime Minister Hassan Diab has made a televised address sating that he will ask for early elections as a way to appease the growing anger of the people of Beirut. Protests on Saturday 8th August left more than 100 people injured, and dozens hospitalised. A Lebanese policeman was killed in clashes with protestors and a fire broke out in a truck in the main square in central Beirut.

A second day of protests on Sunday 9th August has seen an escalation in the violence. A road near parliament was blocked and protestors broke into the housing and transport ministries. Police were forced to use tear gas to try and disperse the protestors who had been throwing rocks as riot police wearing full body armour clashed with protestors.

The US government has said it supports the right to peaceful protest in Lebanon and urges restraint from violence, in a statement from their embassy in Beirut. They have also said the country “deserved leaders who would listen to them”. The UK has pledged a further £20 million in aid, via the World Food Programme run by the United Nations, on top of the £5 million already given in the emergency relief effort.

On 10th August, President Michel Aoun accepted the resignation of the country’s cabinet in the wake of the Beirut port explosion and continued anti-government demonstrations, including the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab. Political leaders are also calling for more than a third of sitting MPs to quit parliament too in order to force new parliamentary elections. It is hoped that a new make-up of parliament would go some way to dealing with the corruption and nepotism that is rife throughout Lebanese politics and which has also been blamed by many for the port explosion.

Mauritius The oil spill in Mauritius reported previously is now creating an ecological disaster as feared. A Japanese bulk carrier ran aground on a reef on the 25th July and has been declared a national emergency by the country’s Prime Minister. Satellite photographs show large amounts of oil spilling out into the pristine waters and onto the shore. The Nagashiki Shipping Company has said it has been hampered by bad weather trying to clean up the spill. The French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged his support, sending in a French military aircraft from the neighbouring island of Reunion with pollution-control equipment. The spill is likely to damage tourism to the area let alone the massive environmental impact to the local marine biodiversity. 6 WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/11th August 2020

Poland Several thousand people waiving rainbow flags have been protesting in the centre of Warsaw on Saturday 8th August. They are demanding the release of a LGBT activist accused of hanging rainbow banners over statues and damaging an anti-abortion campaigner’s van. The protests have been peaceful, but the police arrested 48 people the day before for trying to stop the authorities. The current ruling Law and Justice party says that LGBT rights are part of an invasive foreign ideology that undermines Polish values.

South Korea South Korea has experienced its longest monsoon season for seven years having seen heavy rains for 46 days. This year’s monsoon season has so far resulted in 26 dead and 5,000 evacuated.

United Kingdom Home Secretary Priti Patel’s plans to use the Royal Navy to stop migrants from crossing the Channel to the UK has been labelled dangerous and potentially unlawful. Whilst the Home Secretary has argued that the move would be permitted under International Maritime Law, the French government have said they believe it to be illegal. It is believed that a combined 365 refugees have used the crossing to enter the UK on 6th and 7th August.

On 7th August fire crews in Surrey were sent to tackle a 40-hectare wildfire that has spread across Chobham Common. The fire continued to blaze into 8th August when the fire service declared a major incident and ordered the evacuation of 100 homes.

Five Extinction Rebellion (XR) protesters were arrested on Sunday 9th August after pouring fake blood over the steps of Trafalgar Square, in protest against the deaths of indigenous peoples in Brazil. XR activists gathered alongside protesters from HS2 Rebellion, the Internationalist Solidarity Network, and the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB) to raise awareness of how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting Brazil’s indigenous peoples. According to APID, the mortality rate of indigenous people is double that of the rest of the population of Brazil.

This comes days after a similar protest by XR-offshoot Animal Rebellion, who turned the Trafalgar Square fountains red to represent the “blood on the government’s hands,” calling for an end to animal farming and claiming that UK farming practices could lead to a future animal-transmitted pandemic. Further Animal Rebellion protests are planned for September. As lockdown restrictions continue to ease, we may yet see large-scale XR demonstrations this year similar to those in 2019.

United States of America A top US counterintelligence official has warned that Russia, China, and Iran will all try and interfere in the 2020 presidential election. The three countries have been using online disinformation to try and influence voters, stir up disorder and undermine American voter confidence according to the official. Multiple reviews by US intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia acted to boost President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2016 election at the expense of rival Hilary Clinton. The president has referred to the likelihood of “cheating” at the ballots as far more voting will be made by postal ballots this year due to the COVID-19 virus, which will be more vulnerable to fraud.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have predicted an ‘extremely active’ hurricane season with as many as 25 named storms. So far there have already been nine named storms. The previous record occurred in 2005 with 21 named storms. For a storm to be named it has to have sustained winds of 39 mph or greater.

Venezuela The two former American soldiers who have been accused of staging an attempted coup against President Maduro have been sentenced to 20 years in prison. The men were arrested in May 2020 with 13 others whilst trying to enter Venezuela by sea from Colombia.

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INSIGHTS

Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.

THE COVID-19 GOLD RUSH On 5th August 2020, the gold price per ounce topped $2,000 for the first time, going as high as $2,055 on the day and overtaking the former record high of $1,920.20 set in 2011. The price of gold has risen by 34% since the beginning of the year and by $200 two weeks prior to an ounce topping $2,000, with the World Gold Council reporting in the first half of 2020 that financial investors had added a record 734 tonnes to their portfolios worth $39.5 billion. Elsewhere, on the London Bullion Market, Chief Executive of the London Bullion Market Association, Ruth Cromwell, has reported that more gold is being traded every day than ever previously recorded, with a new record, set on 30th July, seeing 89.36 million ounces changing hands. This article will therefore seek to answer why the price of gold topped $2,000 and why is it one of the most favoured assets to acquire during the COVID-19 pandemic.

To an extent, the rising cost of gold is a self-fulfilling prophecy as the increased popularity of gold presents opportunity and creates momentum, two of the primary drivers for gold demand as listed by Juan Carlos Artigas, the Head of Research for the World Gold Council. The momentum of a rising asset as well as the perceived opportunity for people to make money from it leads to the price continuing to rise which in turn creates a shortage due to people hoarding gold and therefore pushing prices higher. Despite demand for gold in the form of jewellery having reduced by 50% to 572 tonnes in the important gold jewellery markets of China and India, gold in terms of investment has increased significantly with 922 tonnes of gold so far this year being added to investor stockpiles. In addition to this, gold prices have also been inflated by disruptions to the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of the virus, gold mines have been forced to shut and to cease production in order to prevent its spread, therefore reducing the supply of gold. The gold that is produced is then subject to strict travel restrictions and oftentimes elevated exporting costs, which further raises the price of gold. Read more.

DOCTORS AND NURSES AVOIDING COVID-19 TESTING AMID INSURANCE CONCERNS It has been reported that some doctors and nurses are postponing their COVID-19 tests due to fears they will be left without insurance if they test positive. Additionally, healthcare workers applying for mortgages have delayed tests due to concerns that their income protection applications could be rejected. The British Medical Association have been quick to identify the problem and have written to insurers requesting that medical professionals are not left without cover. If tested positive for COVID-19, insurance companies have been deferring applications which can leave healthcare workers without cover for as long as three months. Healthcare workers applying for a mortgage are able to do so without income protection and critical illness cover, however, it is unfavourable particularly to those working in such high-risk environments. Some insurers are also failing to differentiate between the antigen and antibody tests, and this could potentially lead to an application being deferred even though the applicant no longer has any symptoms of the virus. There are obvious concerns surrounding medical practitioners not being tested for the virus whenever possible, and especially as the UK tries to fine tune the track and trace system. The British Medical Association have said that: “It’s essential that staff with symptoms are able to seek an antigen swab test and that this should not result in any disadvantage compared to someone who has had symptoms of COVID-19 but not undergone a test”. The Association of British Insurers have said that they do not want to discourage anyone from having a COVID-19 test, and have written to the British Medical Association to reassure them that they will be treating healthcare workers the same as all applicants during this time when applying for life insurance or income protection. The core of the problem revolves around the standardised 8 WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/11th August 2020

questions asked by insurers regarding a person’s interaction with COVID-19. When applying policies, insurers will ask four questions: have you had COVID-19 symptoms in the last month? Have you had to self-isolate in the last month? Have you tested positive for COVID-19 in the last month? Have you had confirmed contact with someone with COVID-19 in the last month? If answering yes to any of these questions, it is likely that the application will be postponed from one to three months. However, complications arise in regard to healthcare professionals answering questions three and four. Although the Association of British Insurers have said that healthcare workers will be treated the same during the application process, some insurers have since confirmed that they will look at question four differently for healthcare workers to acknowledge that this is a likely outcome of their job, and they would be wearing personal protective equipment. More information for medical professionals and their rights regarding insurance can be found here.

BELARUS: EUROPE’S LAST DICTATORSHIP On 10th August Alexander Lukashenko won his sixth term in office after allegedly receiving 80.23% of the vote. Following the result President Lukashenko’s election victory was endorsed by Xi Jinping of China, Vladimir Putin of Russia and the premiers of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Moldova, and Azerbaijan. However, elections in the country have not been considered free and fair since 1995, a year after Lukashenko first entered power in 1994. Ursula Von Der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, has called for election results to be published after accusations of rampant electoral fraud, with the opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, describing the vote as ‘massively rigged’ and calling for a recount. Despite Tikanovskaya only officially receiving 10.09% of the vote, having run in place of her imprisoned husband, many have considered the former teacher the true victor having presented what many are calling the first major threat to Lukashenko’s power in 26 years. In the lead up to the election many, largely young, Belarussians, ignored President Lukashenko’s threats to crush illegal rallies and the country saw the largest demonstrations for change in over a decade, galvanised by the strength of Tikhanovskaya’s candidacy as well as Belarus’ economic slump and the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the lead up to Election Day the Human Rights Centre Viasna have reported that more than 2,000 people had been detained by police, with Tikhanovskaya having to go into hiding herself on 8th August only emerging on 9th August to cast her vote, after nine of her campaign staff were arrested by authorities. After an exit poll on 9th August showed that Lukashenko would win a sixth term of office the largest mass protests since 1994 took place across the country and are expected to continue into the week. It has been reported that police are using stun grenades, rubber bullets and water cannons in an attempt to disperse protesters and Viasna have so far reported scores of injuries, 120 arrested and one dead after being hit, allegedly on purpose, by a police van. In response to the protests senior members of the European Union have released a statement declaring that they ‘will continue to closely follow the developments in order to assess how to further shape the EU’s response and relations with Belarus’.

With Belarus-Russia relations severely strained at present and the appetite for social change currently high, now could potentially be the time for Belarus to shake off its status as the last dictatorship of Europe.

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