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Enhanced Climate Action in Response to 1.5°C of Global Warming

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Enhanced Climate Action in Response to 1.5°C of Global Warming Enhanced Climate Action in Response to 1.5°C of Global Warming Scaling Up Nationally Determined Contributions Imprint Published by ACT Alliance Secretariat actalliance.org Route de Ferney 150 1211 Geneva, Switzerland With contributions from Sara Jane Ahmed, Energy Finance Analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis – IEEFA; Senior Consultant V20 (The Vulnerable Twenty Group); Advisor at the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative, based in Manila, The Philippines Arnold Ambundo, Climate Justice Project Coordinator of ACT Alliance, based in Nairobi, Kenya Elena Cedillo, Regional Representative of the Lutheran World Federation (LWF) Program in Central America, based in San Salvador, El Salvador Sophie Gebreyes, Country Representative of the Lutheran World Federation (LWF) Ethiopia Program, based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Thomas Hirsch, Founding Director of Climate & Development Advice, based in Heidelberg, Germany Frances Namoumou, Stewardship Program Coordinator of the Pacific Conference of Churches, based in Suva, Fiji Bruno Nicostrate, Policy Officer Climate Change and Development of ACT Alliance EU, based in Brussels, Belgium Carlos Rauda, Regional Representative of ACT Alliance for Latin America and the Caribbean, based in San Salvador, El Salvador Md Shamsuddoha, Chief Executive of the Center for Participatory Research and Development – CPRD, based in Dhaka, Bangladesh Isaiah Kipyegon Toroitich, Global Policy and Advocacy Coordinator of ACT Alliance, based in Geneva, Switzerland Martin Vogel, Climate Change Advisor of Church of Sweden and chair of the ACT Alliance Climate Change Group, based in Uppsala, Sweden Hamzeh Bany Yasin, Program Manager of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, based in Amman, Jordan We also thank Nicolas Abuya, Anna Axelsson, Atikul Haque, Ziaul Haque, Hussien Muhsen, Joanna Patouris, Mattias Soederberg, Brooke Takala, Solomon Woldetsadik and Gebreselassie Zegeye for their valuable comments. Research coordinated by Thomas Hirsch, Climate & Development Advice Editors: Rebekah Chevalier and Joanna Patouris Designer: Saskia Rowley Acknowledgement ACT Alliance would like to thank all of the contributing authors of this report for their time and energy in creating this piece. This report is a product of ACT Alliance Global Climate Change Project implemented with the support of Brot für die Welt. cover photo: component/shutterstock R E P O R T Enhanced Climate Action in Response to 1.5°C of Global Warming Scaling Up Nationally Determined Contributions Contents LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................................................1 ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................................................................2 GLOSSARY .................................................................................................................................................................3 EDITORIAL .................................................................................................................................................................4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................5 SUMMARIZED IMPACTS AND ASSOCIATED RISKS OF 1.5/2°C OF GLOBAL WARMING.......................................................................................................................................6 Staying at 1.5°C and achieving the SDGs are mutually interdependent ...............................6 Risks of a 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenario for sustainable development and how countries should prepare for it ...............................................................................................7 Costs of adaptation and mitigation for 1.5°C-consistent pathways ..................................... 11 Without steep increases of mitigation targets, 1.5°C warming may be reached by 2030 ..........................................................................................13 Scaling up NDCs is a humanitarian, human rights, development and justice imperative .................................................................................................................................15 POTENTIALS AND BENEFITS OF SCALING UP NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS .................................................................................16 The Case of the Republic of the Marshall Islands .........................................................................16 The Case of the Republic of the Philippines ....................................................................................28 The Case of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh ........................................................................41 The Case of The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan ...........................................................................53 The Case of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia .......................................................64 The Case of the Republic of Kenya ....................................................................................................... 74 The Case of the CA4 in Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua ......................................................................84 The Case of the European Union ...........................................................................................................97 ACT ALLIANCE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS — HOW TO ENABLE NDCS IN LINE WITH 1.5°C .................................................................................. 106 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................................ 108 List of figures Figure 1: Risks of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming for sustainable development in selected regions Figure 2: Estimated costs of adaptation Figure 3: Map of the Republic of the Marshall Islands Figure 4: Linkages between climate risks, adaptation and SDGs in a 1.5/2°C scenario for the RMI Figure 5: Institutional framework for managing the National Climate Change Policy Figure 6: Climate change national priority areas in the RMI Figure 7: Overview of proposed flagship programmes and related lighthouse projects for the RMI Figure 8: Associated risks of climate change in the Philippines Figure 9: 1.5°C benefits v. 2°C and above in the context of the Philippines Figure 10: NFSCC mitigation result areas Figure 11: NFSCC adaptation result areas Figure 12: NCCAP priorities and outcomes Figure 13: Priorities in the current NDC of the Philippines Figure 14: Updated mitigation/adaptation areas by sector (to be finalized in updated NDC) Figure 15: Potential sustainable development co-benefits of a more ambitious NDC Figure 16: Climate smart local public-private partnership projects Figure 17: Climate change impacts in Bangladesh and their likely implication on the SDGs Figure 18: Energy sector plan and policies and their relevance to SDG Figure 19: Projected emissions reductions in the power, transport and industry sector by 2030 Figure 20: Adaptation and mitigation targets and their estimated cost Figure 21: Governance arrangements for NDC-NAP implementation framework Figure 22: Bangladesh’s BAU emissions by 2030 for all sectors included in the NDC analysis Figure 23: Significance of adaptation actions in the context of a 1.5°C scenario and the relevance for SDGs Figure 24: Map of Jordan Figure 25: Temperature deviation from baseline: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios Figure 26: Linkages between climate risks, adaptation and SDGs in a 1.5/2°C scenario for Jordan Figure 27: Sectoral breakdown of Jordan’s total emissions of GHGs Gg of CO2eq in 2012 Figure 28: Climate policy priorities in terms of targets and overall mitigation and adaptation strategies Figure 29: Jordan’s primary energy mix 2020 and 2040 Figure 30: The institutional framework for climate change in Jordan Figure 31: Likely procedural and legal gaps for NDC implementation and measures to overcome them Figure 32: Map of Ethiopia Figure 33: Linkages between climate risks, adaptation and SDGs in a 1.5/2°C scenario for Ethiopia Figure 34: National commitment and alignment across the government Figure 35: Overview of proposed flagship programmes and related lighthouse projects in Ethiopia Figure 36: Kenya’s main climate risks and vulnerabilities Figure 37: Kenya’s emission reduction potential and the NDC targets by sector Figure 38: Kenya’s projected emission reductions relative to baseline Figure 39: Climate change–related frameworks and policies in Kenya Figure 40: Map of Central America Figure 41: Main characteristics of CA4 countries Figure 42: The Central American Dry Corridor Figure 43: Climate Risk Index of CA4 countries Figure 44: Evolution of the returns of the main products of the basic basket in the region. Scenarios B2 and A2 Figure 45: Linkages between climate risks, adaptation and SDGs in a 1.5/2°C scenario for CA4 Figure 46: Guiding documents in CA4 countries to respond to the challenges of climate change Figure 47: Overview of proposed flagship programmes and related lighthouse projects Figure 48: EU Climate finance contributions (2013-2016) Enhanced Climate Action in Response to 1.5°C of Global Warming: Scaling Up Nationally Determined Contributions | 1 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank BAU Business as usual BCCSAP Bangladesh Climate
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