Table of Contents Executive Summary
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TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................. 6 LESSONS LEARNED……………………………………………………………………….8 1 SETTING ..................................................................................................................11 1.1 COUNTRY PROFILE...................................................................................................11 1.2 GOVERNMENT MECHANISMS FOR DEALING WITH CLIMATE-RELATED IMPACTS .............12 1.3 CLIMATE-RELATED AND OTHER NATURAL HAZARDS AFFECTING VIETNAM...................14 1.3.1 Tropical cyclones (typhoons) .............................................................................14 1.3.2 Floods ...............................................................................................................16 1.3.3 Drought.............................................................................................................17 1.3.4 Other weather-related hazards...........................................................................18 1.3.5 Diseases and pests .............................................................................................19 1.3.6 Earthquake, depression, cracking and landslides caused by geological activities19 1.4 LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN VIETNAM RELATING TO EL NIÑO...........................20 1.5 HISTORICAL INTEREST IN EL NINO BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST AND/OR IMPACT OF THE 1997-98 EVENT ................................................................................................21 2 THE 1997-98 EVENT...............................................................................................23 2.1 FLOW OF INFORMATION ON THE 1997-98 EL NINO WITHIN VIETNAM ..........................23 2.2 PREVIOUS MENTION OF EL NIÑO IN THE MEDIA ..........................................................24 2.3 TELECONNECTIONS AND EXPECTED EFFECTS OF EL NIÑO...........................................24 2.4 CLIMATE-RELATED ANOMALIES AND IMPACTS OF THE 1982/83 EL NIÑO EVENT .........28 2.5 CLIMATE-RELATED ANOMALIES AND IMPACTS OF THE 1997/98 EL NIÑO EVENT .........40 2.6 RELIABILITY OF ATTRIBUTIONS OF DISASTERS TO EL NIÑO..........................................65 3 RESPONSES.............................................................................................................65 3.1 GOVERNMENT REPORTS OR STATEMENTS ISSUED BEFORE AND AFTER THE IMPACTS OF THE 1997-98 EL NIÑO APPEARED AND RESPONSES AFTER THE EVENT .........................65 3.2 NATIONAL RESEARCH IN VIETNAM ON CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS AND EL NIÑO ......66 3.3 NATIONAL PLANS TO RESPOND TO DISASTERS ............................................................67 3.4 IS EL NIÑO EXPLICITLY CONSIDERED TO BE A DISASTER IN VIETNAM? .........................69 3.5 INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH ON EL NIÑO AND VIETNAM .............................................70 Vietnam - 1 4 FORECASTING BY ANALOGY............................................................................70 4.1 IF A PERFECT FORECAST HAD BEEN AVAILABLE AS EARLY AS OCTOBER 1996 (KNOWING WHAT IS NOW KNOWN ABOUT THE ACTUAL IMPACT), WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN DONE DIFFERENTLY?.........................................................................................................70 4.2 WHAT ARE THE REALISTIC OBSTACLES THAT MIGHT HAVE PREVENTED THESE THEORETICAL ACTIONS BEING TAKEN?............................................................................................71 4.3 CAN EL NIÑO CONSIDERATIONS BE ADDED EXPLICITLY TO NATIONAL DISASTER PLANS?71 4.4 IDENTIFY THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE WAY YOUR COUNTRY RESPONDS TO EL NIÑO-RELATED CLIMATE ANOMALIES...................................................................72 4.5 DID THE 1997/98 EL NIÑO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON YOUR COUNTRY'S RESPONSE TO THE FORECAST IN EARLY 1998 OF AN EXPECTED LA NINA EVENT?..............................76 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................77 ANNEX...............................................................................................................................81 Vietnam - 2 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. GDP by sectors ____________________________________________________11 Figure 2. Governmental Mechanism dealing with climate related disasters _____________14 Figure 3. Monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in Eastern Sea. ____________________15 Figure 4. Tracks of tropical storms - October - in last ten El Niño years. ______________26 Figure 5. Tracks of tropical storms - October - in last ten La Niña years_______________27 Figure 6. Monthly frequency of landfall tropical cyclones in Vietnam._ Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7. Variation of SST anomalies of NIÑO 3 and NIÑO 3.4 regions in 1982-1983 El Niño episodes _________________________________________________________29 Figure 8. Variation of SOI in the 1982-1983 El Niño Episode _______________________30 Figure 9. Variation of overall cloud cover anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Caumau, Buon Ma Thuat and Can Tho_________________________________________31 Figure 10. Variation of low cloud anomalies in the 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Caumau, Buon Ma Thuat and Can Tho_________________________________________31 Figure 11. Variation of overall cloud cover anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Phu Lien, Hanoi, Vinh and Dien Bien______________________________________32 Figure 12. Variation of low cloud cover anomalies in the 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Phu Lien, Hanoi, Vinh and Dien Bien______________________________________32 Figure 13. Variation of overall cloud cover anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Hue, Da Nang and Quang Ngai ___________________________________________33 Figure 14. Variation of low cloud cover anomalies in the 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Hue, Da Nang and Quang Ngai ___________________________________________33 Figure 15. Variation of rainfall anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Can Tho, Buon Ma Thuat and Cau Mau _______________________________________________34 Figure 16. Variation of rainfall anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Da Nang and Quang Ngai ______________________________________________________35 Figure 17. Variation of rainfall anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Dien Bien and Hanoi ___________________________________________________________35 Figure 18. Variation of rainfall anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Phu Lien and Vinh ________________________________________________________________36 Figure 19. Variation of sunshine anomalies in 1982-1983 El Episode in Can Tho, Buon Ma Thuat and Ca Mau _________________________________________________36 Figure 20. Variation of average temperature anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Buon Ma Thuat, Ca Mau and Can Tho _________________________________37 Figure 21. Variation of average temperature anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Hue, Da Nang and Hanoi ________________________________________________38 Vietnam - 3 Figure 22. Variation of average temperature in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Hanoi and Dien Bien_____________________________________________________________38 Figure 23. Variation of average temperature in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Phu Lien and Vinh ____________________________________________________________39 Figure 24. Variation of evaporation anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Can Tho, Buon Ma Thuat, Da Nang and Hanoi _______________________________________39 Figure 25. Tropical cyclone number active in El Niño episode_______________________40 Figure 26. Variation of SST anomalies of NIÑO 3 region in El Niño Episodes __________41 Figure 27. Variation of SOI in 1982-1983 and 1987-1998 El Niño episodes ____________42 Figure 28. Variation of overall cloudiness anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Can Tho and Buommathuat _________________________________________________43 Figure 29. Variation of overall cloudiness anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Hue, Da Nang and Quang Ngai ___________________________________________44 Figure 30. Variation of overall cloudiness anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Hanoi, Phu Lien, Vinh and Dien Bien ________________________________________44 Figure 31. Variation of low cloudiness anomalies in the 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Can Tho, Buon Ma Thuat and Ca Mau _________________________________________45 Figure 32. Variation of low cloudiness anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Hue, Da Nang and Quang Ngai ______________________________________________46 Figure 33. Variation of low cloudiness anomalies in 1982-1983 El Niño Episode in Hue, Da Nang and Quang Ngai ______________________________________________46 Figure 34. Variation of rainfall anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Can Tho, Buonmathoat and Ca Mau ___________________________________________47 Figure 35. Variation of rainfall anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Hue and Da Nang ________________________________________________________________48 Figure 36. Variation of sunshine anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Can Tho, Buonmathuat and Ca Mau ___________________________________________49 Figure 37. Variation of sunshine anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Hue, Dang and Quang Ngai ______________________________________________________49 Figure 38. Variation of average temperature anomalies in 1997-1998 El Niño Episode in Can Tho, Buon Ma Thuat and Ca Mau ______________________________________________________50 Figure 39. Variation