Risk and Return in Bond, Currency and Equity Markets Ravi Bansal Ivan Shaliastovich ∗ June 2007 ∗Bansal (email:
[email protected]) is affiliated with the Fuqua School of Business, Duke Univer- sity, and NBER, and Shaliastovich (email:
[email protected]) is at the Department of Economics, Duke University. We would like to thank Tim Bollerslev, Riccardo Colacito, Bjorn Eraker, David Hsieh, George Tauchen, Adrien Verdelhan for their helpful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies. Risk and Return in Bond, Currency and Equity Markets Abstract We develop a general equilibrium long-run risks model that can simultane- ously account for key asset price puzzles in bond, currency and equity markets. Specifically, we show that the model can explain the predictability of returns and violations of the expectations hypothesis in bond and foreign exchange markets. It also accounts for the levels and volatilities of bond yields and exchange rates, and the well-known risk premium and volatility puzzles in equity markets. The model matches the observed consumption and inflation dynamics. Using domestic and foreign consumption and asset markets data we provide robust empirical support for our models predictions. We argue that key economic channels featured in the long-run risks model — long-run growth fluctuations and time-varying uncertainty, along with a preference for early resolution of uncertainty — provide a coherent framework to simultaneously explain a rich array of asset market puzzles. 1 Introduction An extensive list of financial puzzles commonly includes the level and volatilities of the nominal yields, failure of the expectations hypothesis in bond and foreign exchange markets (see Fama, 1984; Campbell and Shiller, 1991), exchange rate volatility, and the risk premium and stock-price volatility puzzles in equity markets.