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Executive Summary Executive Summary n September 6, 2017, Hurricane Irma hit the Islands of Barbuda and Antigua with catastrophic effects. Hurricane Irma made landfall as a category 5 Ostorm (Saffir-Simpson scale), generating winds in excess of 180 miles per hour (mph) or 290 kilometers per hour (km/h). The storm’s eye passed directly over Barbuda exposing the island to the to the extraordinary eye wall winds for more than three hours. This was accompanied with a significant storm surge of 5 to 11 feet (ft), which resulted in flooding reported to reach some 600 meters (m) or 0.37 miles inland. While out of the path of the eye, Antigua, located approximately 29 miles to the south of Barbuda, experienced tropical storm force winds. Compounding the situation, on September 18, Hurricane Maria (also a category 5 storm) affected the island of Antigua. Although Hurricane Maria did not make landfall, Antigua was exposed to the north-eastern quadrant of storm and experienced again tropical storm force winds and associated rainfall. On 13 September, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda requested support from the World Bank Group to develop an assessment of the damage and needs. A parallel request was made to the European Union (EU). In response, a joint United Nations (UN), EU, World Bank, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) mission visited Antigua and Barbuda from September 26-October 7. The mission aimed to support the Government in undertaking a recovery needs assessment, based on the characterization of the effects and impacts of the disaster. The recovery needs assessment concludes that the total damage1 of the hurricanes Irma and Maria for Antigua and Barbuda comes to EC$ 367.5 million (US$ 136.1 million), while losses2 amount to approximately EC$ 51.2 million (US$ 18.9 million). Recovery needs3 amount to EC$ 600.1 million (US$ 222.2 million). 1 Damage are defined as affected (damaged or destroyed) physical assets. 2 Losses are defined as changes in economic flows resulting from the disaster (e.g. loss of in- come, higher operational costs, exceptional expenditures resulting from the need to address immediate effects of a disaster etc.). 3 Recovery needs are calculated on the basis of the PDNA results for disaster effects and disas- ter impacts. Recovery needs are determined by factoring in the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure and physical assets; the resumption of production, service delivery and access to goods and services; the restoration of governance and decision making processes; and the reduction of risks. 2 Hurricane Irma Recovery Needs Assessment: A Report by the Government of Antigua and Barbuda Table 1: Summary of Hurricane Irma effects on Antigua and Barbuda Disaster Effects (US$) Disaster Effects (EC$) Recovery Needs Damage Losses Total % Damage Losses Total EC$ US$ Sector Infrastructure Transport 16,166,400 318,500 16,484,900 10.17% 43,649,340 860,040 44,509,380 78,459,340 29,059,015 Electricity 3,304,300 259,100 3,563,400 2.20% 8,921,739 699,600 9,621,339 22,275,000 8,250,000 Water & Sanitation 291,900 0 291,900 0.18% 788,000 0 788,000 938,000 347,407 Telecom 702,400 37,000 739,400 0.46% 1,896,440 100,000 1,996,440 1,896,440 702,385 Social Housing 49,805,600 2,405,900 52,211,500 32.22% 134,475,168 6,496,050 140,971,218 214,968,745 79,618,054 Health 1,784,300 65,200 1,849,500 1.14% 4,817,620 175,987 4,993,607 19,817,620 7,339,859 Education 2,626,296 261,251 2,887,548 1.27% 7,091,000 705,379 7,796,379 17,163,131 6,356,715 Productive Tourism 59,038,700 13,567,430 672,606,12 49.62% 159,404,478 36,632,062 196,036,540 188,268,275 69,728,991 Agriculture 148,100 370,400 518,500 0.32% 400,000 1,000,000 1,400,000 700,000 259,259 Fisheries 301,900 159,300 461,200 0.28% 815,000 430,000 1,245,000 1,000,000 370,370 Cross-cutting Governance 797,500 753,800 1,551,300 0.96% 2,153,151 2,035,240 4,188,391 6,159,850 2,281,426 Culture 1,152,700 764,300 1,917,000 1.18% 3,112,308 2,063,500 5,175,808 3,990,808 1,478,077 Environment – – – – – – – 13,500,000 5,000,000 DRM – – – – – – – 31,000,000 11,481,481 Total 136,120,090 18,962,170 155,082,260 100% 367,524,244 51,197,858 418,722,102 600,137,208 222,273,040 1 US$ = 2.7 EC$ Executive Summary 3 Macroeconomic impacts The combined value of destroyed assets and disruptions Hurricanes Irma and Maria will, therefore, have a signifi- in the production of goods and services is equivalent to cant negative impact in the short term on the overall per- about 9 percent of the country’s gross domestic product formance of the national economy and likewise quality of (GDP, current terms) in 2016. The effect of the storms on life for the people of Antigua and Barbuda. Antigua and Barbuda’s real GDP growth rate is estimated to be minus 1.1 percentage points in 2017. In other words, while GDP growth for 2017 was estimated at 4.6 percent, a post-storm estimate now anticipates a 3.5 percent GDP growth rate. Figure 1: Hurricane Irma impact on Antigua and Barbuda GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of GDP growth Percent 0 2016 2017 2018 Baseline GDP growth before Hurricane Irma Estimation of real GDP growth rate after Hurricane Irma Source: World Bank, ECCB, CDB 4 Hurricane Irma Recovery Needs Assessment: A Report by the Government of Antigua and Barbuda Sector Summaries Hurricanes Irma and Maria produced the most significant in Barbuda partly explains the financial importance of the effects on the productive and social sectors. The individual effects in this sector. However, the financial estimation of sector that sustained the greatest damage was tourism, ac- the recovery needs identifies housing as the sector with the counting for 44 percent of total damage costs, followed by most financial needs, followed by the tourism and transport housing which accounted for 37 percent of all damage. The sectors. Other needs that may be smaller in financial terms highest level of production losses are also in the tourism sec- are equally critical for the early recovery of the population tor, owing to the loss of the entire high season in Barbuda, and its economy, such as the resumption of basic services and is estimated at 76 percent of total losses. Consequent- (utilities, health and education) and reestablishment of ly, the tourism sector suffered the highest total effects4 from livelihoods. Sector summaries highlight are about Barbuda hurricanes Irma and Maria (including both damage and only, except for those sectors where substantial damage and losses). The high value of the five affected hotel investments losses were also experienced in Antigua. 4 Effects are the combination of both damage and losses (changes in flows) Figure 2: Damage, Losses and Recovery Needs by sector (M EC$) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Housing Tourism Transport DRR Electricity Health Education Environment Others n Damage n Losses n Recovery Needs INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORT Combined damage and loss estimates for infra- Damage and losses structure were EC$56.9M (US$ 21M). Damage EC$ 44.5M (US$ 16.5M) Recovery Needs and losses in infrastructure were dominated by EC$78.5M (US$ 29M) the transportation (roads) sub-sector (although this sub-sector mostly concerned Antigua). Re- Roads—Damage related primarily to the crushed lime- covery needs amount to EC$ 103.5.5M (US$ stone road network including 73 miles of roadway in An- 38.3M), including critical basic infrastructure tigua and 5 miles of the Barbuda network. Vehicle stock in Barbuda is all assumed at least partially damaged. needs in Barbuda. Network rehabilitation includes resurfacing of 36 miles of the damaged critical roadway in Antigua and 5 miles in Executive Summary 5 Barbuda (over the first year following the disaster). This connecting Barbuda with Antigua will require the replace- also includes the rehabilitation of a bridge/seawall struc- ment of an equipment tower and realignment of micro- ture on Antigua. Barbuda’s only gas station was structur- wave antenna hardware to restore communications. ally damaged, although a more thorough assessment is needed to determine whether to rebuild or rehabilitate it. WATER AND SANITATION Ports—On Barbuda the main cargo and ferry pier south of Codrington suffered significant damage. Sand sedimenta- Damage and losses tion has decreased the effective channel depth, restricting EC$ 0.79M (US$ 0.3M) size of vessels able to use the facility. This will require Recovery Needs dredging and a revised bathymetric survey of the port EC$ 0.9M (US$ 0.35M) approaches and facilities. The Port of St. John’s suffered physical damage along the western end. All water sources on Barbuda were damaged by Hurricane Irma. Groundwater suffered contamination from the infil- Airport—Codrington airport on Barbuda experienced sig- nificant damage forcing its closure to commercial traffic. tration of surface pollutants and saltwater intrusion from The terminal building requires extensive roof and interior storm surge. Rainwater harvesting systems were damaged repairs, and the security fence needs replacement. In ad- and cisterns have been contaminated with debris. The dition, the runway required rehabilitation (already under- public desalination (reverse osmosis) plant was flooded taken at the time this report was written).
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