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Israeli-Palestinian Relations: Whereto?

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Israeli-Palestinian Relations: Whereto? The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Twenty Years of Strategic Foresight No. 31 July 2014 Israeli-Palestinian INSIDE Netanyahu and Gantz mark the BESA Center’s Relations: Whereto? 20th anniversary General Amidror joins Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies the BESA Center research associates discuss Israel's options Conflict over West Bank water after the failure of the Kerry process and Is Assad really giving subsequent hostilities. up his chemical weapons? Are IDF ground forces prepared for the future? "Mowing the Grass" in Gaza Strategic Dialogues in India and Germany MARKING THE BESA CENTER’S 20th ANNIVERSARY Prime Minister Netanyahu Headlines the Center’s International Conference Also IDF Chief-of-Staff Gantz, Ministers Steinitz and Erdan, and former security chiefs Arad, Arens, Ben-Israel, Dayan, Dichter and Eiland. 2 Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu Netanyahu: "Palestinians must solution” address in June 2009. He also state of its own, which is the state of recognize the right of the Jewish spoke at the center in 1995, as Prime Israel. I hope that it shall be so, so that People to a state, and abandon their Minister in 1999, as Finance Minister in we can advance a real solution to the demand for refugee return." 2005, and as Opposition Leader in 2007 conflict,” concluded Netanyahu. and 2008. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu He also called for Palestinians to give made his eighth major appearance at In his latest BESA Center address, up on their demand for Palestinian the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Netanyahu voiced doubt over the refugees and their descendants to Studies last fall, opening the center’s possibility of a two-state solution, citing return to areas now inside Israel. “The 20th anniversary international the Palestinian leadership’s refusal to Palestinians must abandon their conference with an address on “The recognize Israel as a Jewish state. “In [demand for a] right of return,” he said. State of Israel’s Challenges.” order for the process in which we find ourselves to be significant… in order Netanyahu dwelt on the links of Netanyahu had delivered seven for it to have a real chance of success, the head of the Palestinian national previous addresses at the Begin-Sadat it’s necessary to hear the Palestinian movement in the pre-state days – Mufti Center for Strategic Studies, beginning leadership finally say that it recognizes Haj Amin al-Husseini – with the Nazis. in 1994 through his famous “two-state the right of the Jewish people to a He reminded his listeners that the Minister of Intelligence Dr. Yuval Steinitz IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz mufti visited Adolf Hitler in 1941 and up its economic pressure on Teheran, Gantz: "Israel's next war will involve 3 promised his aid in getting Muslims not weaken them. "Sanctions have precise missiles, cyber-attacks, mass to enlist in the SS in the Balkan states, cost about $100 billion damage to border invasions." and in the Nazi propaganda efforts. Tehran's economy over the past 18-24 Husseini, he said, is still an admired months, inflation in Iran is currently IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Benny figure among Palestinians. "That is what running at 40 percent a year, and the Gantz delivered a major address to needs to be uprooted,” he said. unemployment rate is between 25%- the conference with his vision of what 30%, with the rate among youth at Israel's next wars could look like. He Netanyahu also addressed the Iranian about 40%," he said. referred to the outbreak of war almost nuclear issue, reiterating his distrust as a forgone conclusion, with only the of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s "Sanctions have effectively cut Iran timing still to be determined. peace overtures to the West and off from the world’s financial system, saying Iran aspires “to rule the entire making it very difficult to do business. General Gantz speculated that stateless Middle East” and destroy the state of At this rate, the Iranian economy will enemies may launch attacks on several Israel. He repeated his insistence that collapse in another year-and-a-half. fronts, including cyber warfare and Iran abandon its uranium enrichment Now is the time to capitalize on this kidnappings. This could include an capacity and plutonium production pressure by forcing an end to the al-Qaeda attack on the Golan Heights, route, saying those apparatuses are nuclear program. It is not the time to rockets on Eilat and a Hamas assault “not necessary at all for [civilian] nuclear let-up on sanctions. The pressure works, on the Erez crossing with Gaza, he said. energy,” and that only a state seeking it is effective! If we add to this pressure "The morning of the war could open a bomb would refuse to give them up. a credible military threat, the chances of with a missile on the Kirya building [the "Iran claims that it wants this capability stopping the Iranian nuclear program Defense Ministry's HQ in Tel Aviv], with for nuclear energy for peaceful needs,” will be greatly improved." a cyber-computer attack on banks, he said. “But seventeen countries in with a mass charge on a border town, the world produce nuclear energy for Steinitz said the combination of a or a tunnel packed with explosives that peaceful needs without one centrifuge credible military threat and diplomacy reaches a kindergarten." for enriching uranium." that succeeded in getting Syria to begin dismantling its chemical weapons Gantz stressed the element of Steinitz: "Iranian economy 18 months stockpiles will work against Iran as well. uncertainty in Israel's strategic and away from collapse." Syria, he said, showed that there was tactical environment. "Unpredictability truth in the slogan “the greater the is a part of the daily routine of every Minister of Intelligence Dr. Yuval Steinitz pressure, the greater the chances for commander in every sector today. On reinforced Netanyahu’s address by diplomacy to succeed." any given day, strategic weapons could arguing that the West ought to ramp- fall into the wrong hands, a bomb MARKING THE BESA CENTER’S 20th ANNIVERSARY tunnel leading to the entrance that it must fight against of an Israeli community can terrorist guerrilla organizations be exposed, or a border patrol embedded in civilian areas, can come under a bomb and return to the idea that it attack." is fighting enemy states. This, he said, would add to Israeli In the next war, Gantz said deterrence and cut short any the IDF will confront an future conflicts. enemy possessing advanced capability, decentralized and "Neither Hezbollah, Syria, Iran camouflaged, and operating or the Americans want to see from within a civilian the destruction of Lebanon. If population. In response, he war does break out, treating warned that "Israel will have Lebanon as an enemy would 4 to use firepower that does not end the conflict in three days, Then-Minister of Homeland Defense Gilad Erdan permit full distinction to be not three weeks,” he said. This made between civilians and entails bombing bridges and terrorists; and that blurring "In fact, one out of every 10 homes in other state-affiliated targets, will be expressed operationally in south Lebanon has a rocket launcher though staying clear of civilian sites like undesirable results, which, regrettably, or weapons stored in it. Thus in schools and hospitals, he stressed. constitute an integral element of war." any scenario of a full-scale war, the Israeli home front will be pounded "It’s not right for us to accept the idea Gantz underscored the need to by thousands of rockets for up to of fighting low-intensity counter- preserve the IDF’s ground-maneuver three weeks,” Erdan said. "Hezbollah’s terrorism conflicts. We should move to ability. At the same time, he placed accurate missile stockpile is growing, an interstate conflict system,” Eiland a special emphasis on the use of and the terror organization will seek argued. "This model also applies to technology-intensive means − above to target the most painful places for Gaza, which, since Hamas seized power all those employed by the air force, as Israel, such as national infrastructure there, has become a state in every way." well as upgraded combat intelligence sites, natural gas facilities, electricity for the commanders of frontline units. production centers, and other "In the future, the IDF’s diversity of installations. Our enemies want to combat platforms will be bolstered break the spirit of Israelis, and get them by quantities of autonomous, robot- to stop believing that we can have a like weapons in the air and at sea, and normal life here." maybe even on the ground.” An inter-ministerial committee is Erdan: "Enemies have 200,000 rockets working on a plan, he said, to ensure and missiles pointed at Israel." that basic commodities reach civilians in wartime, and that safe zones for Gilad Erdan, who at the time was people living in 650,000 unprotected Minister of Homeland Defense homes are created. (and remains also the Minister of Communications), told the conference Eiland: "Fight Hamas and Hezbollah as that Israel's enemies, including if fighting enemy states." Hezbollah, have 200,000 rockets and missiles pointed at Israel, and that Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, former around 30 percent of Israel’s population head of the National Security Council, Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland is vulnerable to these attacks. said that Israel should reject the idea 5 Ambassador Zalman Shoval, Prof. Zeev Maghen, Prof. Efraim Karsh, Dr. Daniel Pipes, Prof. Gabi Ben-Dor, and MK Zeev Elkin (from l. to r.) The twentieth anniversary conference was packed throughout its two-day run, and was addressed by a star-studded lineup including: • Zeev Elkin, Deputy Foreign Minister • Prof.
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