Israeli-Palestinian Relations: Whereto?

The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Twenty Years of Strategic Foresight

No. 31 July 2014

‏Israeli-Palestinian Inside ‏Netanyahu and Gantz mark the BESA Center’s Relations: Whereto? 20th anniversary ‏General Amidror joins Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies the BESA Center research associates discuss Israel's options ‏Conflict over West Bank water after the failure of the Kerry process and ‏Is Assad really giving subsequent hostilities. up his chemical weapons? ‏Are IDF ground forces prepared for the future? ‏"Mowing the Grass" in Gaza Strategic Dialogues in India and Germany ‏Marking the BESA Center’s 20th Anniversary

Prime Minister Netanyahu Headlines the Center’s International Conference Also IDF Chief-of-Staff Gantz, Ministers Steinitz and Erdan, and former security chiefs Arad, Arens, Ben-Israel, Dayan, Dichter and Eiland.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu

Netanyahu: "Palestinians must solution” address in June 2009. He also state of its own, which is the state of recognize the right of the Jewish spoke at the center in 1995, as Prime Israel. I hope that it shall be so, so that People to a state, and abandon their Minister in 1999, as Finance Minister in we can advance a real solution to the demand for refugee return." 2005, and as Opposition Leader in 2007 conflict,” concluded Netanyahu. and 2008. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu He also called for Palestinians to give made his eighth major appearance at In his latest BESA Center address, up on their demand for Palestinian the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Netanyahu voiced doubt over the refugees and their descendants to Studies last fall, opening the center’s possibility of a two-state solution, citing return to areas now inside Israel. “The 20th anniversary international the Palestinian leadership’s refusal to Palestinians must abandon their conference with an address on “The recognize Israel as a Jewish state. “In [demand for a] right of return,” he said. State of Israel’s Challenges.” order for the process in which we find ourselves to be significant… in order Netanyahu dwelt on the links of Netanyahu had delivered seven for it to have a real chance of success, the head of the Palestinian national previous addresses at the Begin-Sadat it’s necessary to hear the Palestinian movement in the pre-state days – Mufti Center for Strategic Studies, beginning leadership finally say that it recognizes Haj Amin al-Husseini – with the Nazis. in 1994 through his famous “two-state the right of the Jewish people to a He reminded his listeners that the Minister of Intelligence Dr. Yuval Steinitz IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz

mufti visited Adolf Hitler in 1941 and up its economic pressure on Teheran, Gantz: "Israel's next war will involve 3 promised his aid in getting Muslims not weaken them. "Sanctions have precise missiles, cyber-attacks, mass to enlist in the SS in the Balkan states, cost about $100 billion damage to border invasions." and in the Nazi propaganda efforts. Tehran's economy over the past 18-24 Husseini, he said, is still an admired months, inflation in Iran is currently IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Benny figure among Palestinians. "That is what running at 40 percent a year, and the Gantz delivered a major address to needs to be uprooted,” he said. unemployment rate is between 25%- the conference with his vision of what 30%, with the rate among youth at Israel's next wars could look like. He Netanyahu also addressed the Iranian about 40%," he said. referred to the outbreak of war almost nuclear issue, reiterating his distrust as a forgone conclusion, with only the of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s "Sanctions have effectively cut Iran timing still to be determined. peace overtures to the West and off from the world’s financial system, saying Iran aspires “to rule the entire making it very difficult to do business. General Gantz speculated that stateless Middle East” and destroy the state of At this rate, the Iranian economy will enemies may launch attacks on several Israel. He repeated his insistence that collapse in another year-and-a-half. fronts, including cyber warfare and Iran abandon its uranium enrichment Now is the time to capitalize on this kidnappings. This could include an capacity and plutonium production pressure by forcing an end to the al-Qaeda attack on the Golan Heights, route, saying those apparatuses are nuclear program. It is not the time to rockets on Eilat and a Hamas assault “not necessary at all for [civilian] nuclear let-up on sanctions. The pressure works, on the Erez crossing with Gaza, he said. energy,” and that only a state seeking it is effective! If we add to this pressure "The morning of the war could open a bomb would refuse to give them up. a credible military threat, the chances of with a missile on the Kirya building [the "Iran claims that it wants this capability stopping the Iranian nuclear program Defense Ministry's HQ in Tel Aviv], with for nuclear energy for peaceful needs,” will be greatly improved." a cyber-computer attack on banks, he said. “But seventeen countries in with a mass charge on a border town, the world produce nuclear energy for Steinitz said the combination of a or a tunnel packed with explosives that peaceful needs without one centrifuge credible military threat and diplomacy reaches a kindergarten." for enriching uranium." that succeeded in getting Syria to begin dismantling its chemical weapons Gantz stressed the element of Steinitz: "Iranian economy 18 months stockpiles will work against Iran as well. uncertainty in Israel's strategic and away from collapse." Syria, he said, showed that there was tactical environment. "Unpredictability truth in the slogan “the greater the is a part of the daily routine of every Minister of Intelligence Dr. Yuval Steinitz pressure, the greater the chances for commander in every sector today. On reinforced Netanyahu’s address by diplomacy to succeed." any given day, strategic weapons could arguing that the West ought to ramp- fall into the wrong hands, a bomb ‏Marking the BESA Center’s 20th Anniversary

tunnel leading to the entrance that it must fight against of an Israeli community can terrorist guerrilla organizations be exposed, or a border patrol embedded in civilian areas, can come under a bomb and return to the idea that it attack." is fighting enemy states. This, he said, would add to Israeli In the next war, Gantz said deterrence and cut short any the IDF will confront an future conflicts. enemy possessing advanced capability, decentralized and "Neither Hezbollah, Syria, Iran camouflaged, and operating or the Americans want to see from within a civilian the destruction of Lebanon. If population. In response, he war does break out, treating warned that "Israel will have Lebanon as an enemy would 4 to use firepower that does not end the conflict in three days, Then-Minister of Homeland Defense Gilad Erdan permit full distinction to be not three weeks,” he said. This made between civilians and entails bombing bridges and terrorists; and that blurring "In fact, one out of every 10 homes in other state-affiliated targets, will be expressed operationally in south Lebanon has a rocket launcher though staying clear of civilian sites like undesirable results, which, regrettably, or weapons stored in it. Thus in schools and hospitals, he stressed. constitute an integral element of war." any scenario of a full-scale war, the Israeli home front will be pounded "It’s not right for us to accept the idea Gantz underscored the need to by thousands of rockets for up to of fighting low-intensity counter- preserve the IDF’s ground-maneuver three weeks,” Erdan said. "Hezbollah’s terrorism conflicts. We should move to ability. At the same time, he placed accurate missile stockpile is growing, an interstate conflict system,” Eiland a special emphasis on the use of and the terror organization will seek argued. "This model also applies to technology-intensive means − above to target the most painful places for Gaza, which, since Hamas seized power all those employed by the air force, as Israel, such as national infrastructure there, has become a state in every way." well as upgraded combat intelligence sites, natural gas facilities, electricity for the commanders of frontline units. production centers, and other "In the future, the IDF’s diversity of installations. Our enemies want to combat platforms will be bolstered break the spirit of Israelis, and get them by quantities of autonomous, robot- to stop believing that we can have a like weapons in the air and at sea, and normal life here." maybe even on the ground.” An inter-ministerial committee is Erdan: "Enemies have 200,000 rockets working on a plan, he said, to ensure and missiles pointed at Israel." that basic commodities reach civilians in wartime, and that safe zones for Gilad Erdan, who at the time was people living in 650,000 unprotected Minister of Homeland Defense homes are created. (and remains also the Minister of Communications), told the conference Eiland: "Fight Hamas and Hezbollah as that Israel's enemies, including if fighting enemy states." Hezbollah, have 200,000 rockets and missiles pointed at Israel, and that Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, former around 30 percent of Israel’s population head of the National Security Council, Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland is vulnerable to these attacks. said that Israel should reject the idea 5

Ambassador Zalman Shoval, Prof. Zeev Maghen, Prof. Efraim Karsh, Dr. Daniel Pipes, Prof. Gabi Ben-Dor, and MK Zeev Elkin (from l. to r.)

The twentieth anniversary conference was packed throughout its two-day run, and was addressed by a star-studded lineup including: • Zeev Elkin, Deputy Foreign Minister • Prof. Moshe Arens, former Minister of Defense • Ambassadors Yitzhak Levanon and Zalman Shoval • Prof. Robert J. Lieber, Georgetown U. • Avi Dichter, former Director, Israeli Security Agency and • Prof. Sarit Kraus, Bar-Ilan University Minister of Internal Security • Prof. Yehezkel Dror, the Hebrew University • Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Ministry of • Prof. Eytan Gilboa, Prof. Efraim Karsh, Dr. Yaacov Lifshitz, International Affairs Prof. Zeev Maghen, Prof. Shmuel Sandler, and Dr. Eitan • Col. (ret.) Dr. Douglas Macgregor, Burke-Macgregor Group Shamir, BESA Center LLC • Dr. Daniel Pipes, Director of the Middle East Forum • Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein • Maj. Gen. (res.) Prof. Yitzhak Ben-Israel, Chairman, the Israel Space Agency • Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan and Prof. Uzi Arad, former NSC heads • Mr. John Birkler, RAND Corporation • Mr. Uzi Rubin, BESA Center • Ms. Tali Lipkin-Shahak, Israel TV • Prof. Avi Bell, Bar-Ilan University • Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor, Haifa University • Prof. Leo Leiderman, Tel Aviv U. • Prof. Minxin Pei, Claremont McKenna College Professors Efraim Inbar, Uzi Arad, Robert Lieber, Minxin Pei and Leo Leiderman (l. to r.) ‏Marking the BESA Center’s 20th Anniversary

Ms. Tali Lipkin-Shahak, Prof. Yehezkel Dror, Avi Dichter, Prof. Moshe Arens, and Prof. Inbar (l. to r.)

Professors Eytan Gilboa and Avi Bell, Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Prof. Shmuel Sandler, Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan and Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein (l. to r.) and Prof. Yaacov Lifshitz (l. to r.) Awarding BESA Center Supporters

In the presence of Prime Minister Netanyahu, Bar-Ilan Mr. Saul Koschitzky (r.) being awarded by BIU President Prof. Daniel Hershkowitz (c.) and Prof. Efraim Inbar. University President Prof. 7 Daniel Hershkowitz and BESA Center Director Prof. Efraim Inbar awarded certificates of distinction to the center's three key supporters: Dr. Thomas O. Hecht, Mr. Saul Koschitzky and Mr. Muzi Wertheim. In presenting the awards at the opening night of the twentieth anniversary Mr. and Mrs. Muzi Wertheim with Prof. Inbar. conference, Prof. Hershkowitz said that "The BESA Center has become a world-leading think tank of distinction, thanks to your generosity and vision."

Ms. Marion Hecht receiving an award on behalf of her father, Dr. Thomas O. Hecht, from Prof. Hershkowitz. BESA Center associates in roundtable discussion Israeli-Palestinian Relations: Whereto?

‏In April, the nine-month-long US-led diplomatic talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority collapsed. Here, the research associates of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies discuss why the talks failed and what Israel's diplomatic options are for the long term: managing the conflict, making unilateral moves, seeking interim agreements, or driving once again towards a full-fledged two- state arrangement? (This discussion was held prior to Israel's most recent war against the Hamas, 'Operation Protective Edge').

Prof. Shmuel Sandler: collapse of the talks it handed the 8 ‏The talks failed because both sides Palestinians a significant advantage prefer the status quo. For Mahmoud in the 'blame game' which is now Abbas, a curtailed, constricted and poor underway and which will impact on Palestinian state squeezed between Israel's international standing. This Jordan and Israel would be worse than affects the approach of many countries the current situation – in which the towards the Palestinian drive to join PA benefits from lavish attention and international organizations and isolate financial assistance from the world Israel. community. For Israel, the prospect of a Palestinian state, that would very Prof. Eytan Gilboa: likely develop into a Hamas-led entity, ‏Abbas refused to even discuss the controlling the strategic highlands ‘Kerry principles’ for extending the and the Jordan border – is equally talks, in line with years of Palestinian unappetizing. The current instability in recalcitrance. But a great deal of the Arab world and uncertain American Dr. Jonathan Rynhold responsibility for the failed process global leadership also makes Israel very lies with the Americans. The open and reluctant to take significant security risks. ongoing US criticism of Israel, the Dr. Jonathan Rynhold: ‏The fundamental underlying reason the talks failed is that the Palestinians are not prepared to make the required compromises on refugees and security; whereas Prime Minister Netanyahu sincerely wanted the talks to continue. In fact, he took major strides towards compromise on the territorial front. Had the Palestinians agreed to continue the talks, Israel would have released more prisoners and agreed to a partial settlement freeze.

‏Israel made one tactical blunder. Prof. Shmuel Sandler By announcing the expansion of Prof. Eytan Gilboa settlements during the crisis over the warnings of Kerry and Obama correlation to the amounts of money about Israel becoming an "apartheid” that the PA pays to Palestinian terrorists. or isolated state, the relentless focus Senior PA officials should also lose some on settlements including housing of their VIP privileges granted by Israel. starts in Jewish Jerusalem, and the constant praising of Mahmoud Abbas ‏Prof. Shlomo Shpiro: as the “most moderate” Palestinian ‏Indeed, if Abbas is serious about leader Israel could ever hope for, coexistence with Israel he cannot share backfired. This only hardened power and embrace those seeking to Palestinian positions. In short, the wipe Israel off the map and those who narrative that blames the collapse of continue to attack Israeli towns with the talks on Israel ignores American missiles. mistakes and remains wrongly fixated on settlement construction. ‏Ironically, the political stalemate makes Prof. Efraim Inbar security dialogue and cooperation between the IDF and PA police even more necessary – for routine daily Prof. Efraim Inbar: ‏ issues affecting security operations, We ended this latest round in the road closures, PA training programs, Israel-Palestinian conflict with little movement of Palestinians, and more. damage and should not be tempted 9 to take punitive actions against the ‏Prof. Efraim Karsh: PA. We should not forget that hungry ‏Abbas’s decision to strike an agreement neighbors make bad neighbors. Israel with Hamas casts a serious doubt not has no interest in seeing the collapse only on the Palestinian leadership’s of the PA or causing a civilian services commitment to a two-state solution, crisis in the PA. but also on its interest in the attaining of statehood at all. Not that this should Gilboa: That’s true, but Israel still have come as a surprise to anyone. For Uzi Rubin could and ought to respond to Abbas’ nearly a century, Palestinian leaders decision to pursue coalition with the never have missed an opportunity to genocidal Hamas, through carefully- impede the development of Palestinian ‏Uzi Rubin: calculated financial and political civil society and the attainment of ‏‏The talks were destined to fail. There pressures. The PA should be forced Palestinian statehood. This is true about is no middle ground that can serve to pay its enormous debts to Israeli Abbas, as it was about Jerusalem Mufti as a basis for a mutually acceptable, companies such as the Israel Electric Hajj Amin Husseini and PLO leader permanent and comprehensive peace Company, and Western nations should Yasser Arafat. agreement between Israel and the reduce their contributions to the PA in Palestinians. Until such time that one of the sides gives up on its basic tenets – Israel on Zionism and the Palestinians on their so-called right of return – no peace agreement is feasible. Interim agreements or rather arrangements to manage the conflict are what we are left with.

‏In any case, it would be a mistake for Israel to “punish” the Palestinian Authority for its intransigence and to undermine the sustainability of the PA. It is rather in Israel's interest that life in the PA continues apace. ‏Prof. Shlomo Shpiro Prof. Efraim Karsh BESA Center associates in roundtable discussion Israeli-Palestinian Relations: Whereto? (continued)

Inbar: I accept this analysis of the with Jordan a permanent solution; one chronic Palestinian unwillingness to that establishes something short of a settle with Israel, and do not expect Palestinian state. the situation to change anytime soon. The question then becomes: What ‏Dr. Max Singer: are Israel’s options going forward? I ‏There is some childishness to the idea say that time is on Israel’s side, and that the problem of Israeli-Palestinian therefore conflict management is conflict must be solved now. It is more neither a nefarious nor a bad option. All likely to be solved by people who are the talk of Israel’s growing isolation is prepared to wait. exaggerated. ‏A key challenge for leadership is ‏Shpiro: I‏ agree. Events all over the world bringing about a wider recognition and effectively have pushed the Israeli- acceptance in Israel of the unfortunate Palestinian issue to the back burner. The Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum reality that the Palestinians are forcing crisis in the Ukraine renews dormant us to continue the occupation. The Western fears over the re-emergence and help as much as possible with Palestinians have not given us any of Russia as a world power. The savage institution building in the PA. It better alternative to the occupation 10 civil war in Syria, coupled with political should strive for a long-term interim – sinful as it is in principle. Therefore events in Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Yemen, agreement. It should explore a model of Israel has to bear the burden of being exploded the old myth that the Israeli- cooperation such as that shared by the an “occupier” (especially the moral Palestinian conflict alone is the source People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, burden). We need the Israeli center to of instability in the Middle East. Most which have territorial disputes and join the acceptance and defense of Western decision-makers are tired of do not recognize each other, but still the occupation, and to devote efforts the Middle East and are tied up with cooperate economically. to improve the way the occupation is their own economic problems. implemented. ‏Israel might also telegraph its final ‏At the same time, Israel's success in border aspirations by passing a bill that ‏The response everyone should emerging from the global economic would incentivize settlers living on the have to negative features of the crisis of the past five years relatively other side of the separation fence or occupation is not that “we have to unscathed serves as a role model outside of settlement blocs to return to end the occupation” – because that for many Europeans, especially Israel proper. In fact, perhaps we should has been made impossible by the Mediterranean countries such declare an “Israeli Peace Initiative” – our Palestinians, but that “we have to try as Spain, Greece and Italy. Israeli vision of a future settlement. to find ways to make the occupation entrepreneurship, technology and less objectionable.” Our obligation creativity challenge some of the world's ‏Rynhold: The collapse of the to the Palestinians is not to end the biggest corporations. talks could provide Israel with an opportunity to shape significant ‏Perhaps the time of big diplomatic outcomes with international backing. moves is over for the foreseeable For reasons of demography and future. Thus, Israel should concentrate international legitimacy, Israel should on conflict management and take the opportunity to present a plan containment of terrorism, while further for an interim solution that advances developing its economy and its ties partition, including a significant further with old friends and emerging major withdrawal in the West Bank. global players. ‏Gilboa: The two-state solution is fine ‏Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum: as a long-term vision, but in practice ‏Israel should still actively promote the Israel should initiate a plan for an two-state solution as the final goal. interim agreement based on the But since that is not attainable now, it issues the sides have already agreed ‏Dr. Max Singer should work on economic cooperation on. The other alternative is to seek BESA Center associates in roundtable discussion Israeli-Palestinian Relations: Whereto? (continued)

‏Prof. Uzi Arad: “There is no Palestinian leader who is truly willing to end the conflict with Israel.”

occupation that they have forced ‏The eight city-states (which might ‏Prof. Uzi Arad, former director of intelligence upon us. Rather our obligation is be called the Palestinian Emirates), for the Mossad and National Security Advisor to make the occupation as least would comprise the areas of Jenin, to Prime Minister Netanyahu, says that “no harmful to the Palestinians as Nablus, Ramallah, Jericho, Tulkarem, end-of-conflict accord with the Palestinians possible, consistent with our security Kalkilya, the Arab part of Hebron, is on the horizon, because neither Mahmoud requirements. and the Gaza strip. This approach Abbas nor any other Palestinian leader is will most closely map the true prepared to declare an end to all claims ‏Israel must pursue peace, but it must loyalties of Palestinians, and free 85 against Israel. Even when the Palestinians do so patiently. The present situation percent of them from Israeli control; say that they seek an ‘endgame’ deal with is undesirable and even dangerous – while maintaining Israeli security in Israel, they don’t mean it. Rather, their although less so than in any previous the overall area. refugee claims against Israel are permanent decade. In any case, it may be the and unending. Their strategy is to chip away best that can be achieved now and ‏Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror: at Israel, while leaving key issues open and for some years hence. The most important thing is not to festering, and to pass the conflict on to the rush off in any direction without next generation for continuation.” careful consideration, consultation with our allies, and preparation ‏Arad spoke at a Begin-Sadat Center for of the Israeli public. Paradigmatic Strategic Studies conference in March, co- change can be brought about only sponsored by the Security Council for Israel, 11 slowly, and is best implemented prior to the collapse of the Kerry process. when all the relevant regional and Other speakers were Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi international parameters have Dayan, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror, Prof. gelled. Again, this takes time; and Efraim Inbar, and Dr. Jonathan Rynhold. indeed, Israel has the time to move cautiously. Eventually, Israel may ‏Arad: “Israeli leaders such as Ehud Barak have to strike out in new directions, and Ehud Olmert sought to bring finality but then we will be well-placed and closure to Israel’s conflict with the to act with determination and Palestinians, but the other side is just not efficiency. willing to agree on this. Consequently, Dr. Mordechai Kedar Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approach ‏In the meantime, Israel must act has been to advance partial agreements ‏Dr. Mordechai Kedar: to buttress a united Western stand and stage-by-stage accords, which have ‏I think it is time for Israel and against the inclusion of Hamas in some realistic chance of holding. Interim the world to change directions any Palestinian coalition, even in agreements are pragmatic and functional; all-together. We must take Arab a so-called “technocratic” unity the search for grand and comprehensive sociology into account, rather government. peace deals is not.” than Western concepts and considerations – which do not apply ‏Prof. Arad also argued strenuously against in the Middle East. Consider the Israel making any unilateral withdrawals breakup of Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan from Judea and Samaria. “Unilateral moves and Yemen. Similarly, there are deep will bring neither peace nor security to Israel. tribal rifts among the Palestinians, It would be both dangerous and foolhardy and thus there will never be a to do so.” successful unity government that incorporates all Palestinian ‏Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror devoted his Arab population centers in Judea, remarks at the conference to explaining Samaria and Gaza. Consequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s demand that we should recognize and support Palestinian leaders recognize Israel as the local leadership in Arab Palestinian nation state of the Jews. Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi population centers that desire Dayan spoke of the need to retain the Jordan lasting peaceful relations with Israel Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror Valley as Israel’s eastern security border. – as independent city-states. The Myth of Palestinian Centrality

Efraim Karsh

Besa Center STudy The Myth of Palestinian Centrality

Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 108

In a new BESA Center study, Prof. Efraim Karsh deconstructs the myth of linkage between the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the attainment of regional peace and stability. He shows that neither the Arab states nor Palestinian leaders have truly wanted the “liberation of Palestine.”

Prof. Efraim Karsh

No cliché has dominated the discourse but the inverse of the truth. For even ongoing tragedy.” 12 on Middle Eastern affairs more than though the “Palestine question” “Nor have ordinary Arabs evinced any the supposed “linkage” between the has long formed the main common interest in the Palestinian cause. Quite resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli denominator of pan-Arab solidarity the reverse in fact; from their arrival conflict and the attainment of regional and its most effective rallying cry, in the Arab states during the 1948 war peace and stability. neither the Arab states nor Palestinian the Palestinians were deeply resented leaders have truly wanted the and despised by the host societies and According to this argument, since “liberation of Palestine.” this sentiment has changed little over Arabs and Muslims are so passionate the years. Not once has the proverbial about Palestinian statehood, the Karsh: “The former have manipulated ‘Arab street’ driven the Arab regimes to Israeli-Palestinian stalemate feeds the ‘Palestine’ cause to their own war with Israel; it was rather the Arab regional anger and despair, gives a ends while blocking the Palestinians’ masses, indoctrinated for decades with larger rationale to terrorist groups road to statehood, perpetuating the vile anti-Jewish and anti-Israel hatred, like al-Qaeda and to the insurgency refugee problem, and abusing their who have been repeatedly goaded in Iraq, and obstructs the formation guest Palestinian populations. The into violence by their unelected rulers of a regional coalition that will help latter have immersed their hapless so as to divert attention from their own block Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. constituents in disastrous and wholly marginalization and repression.” As President Obama asserted after unnecessary conflicts, while lining his first meeting with Prime Minister their pockets from the proceeds of this As for Palestinian leaders, Karsh shows Netanyahu in May 2009: that for nearly a century they “[Making] peace with the “have missed no opportunity Palestinians…. actually to impede the development strengthens our hand of Palestinian civil society and in the international the attainment of Palestinian community in dealing statehood.” with the potential Iranian threat.” “Had the Mufti of Jerusalem, Hajj Amin Husseini, chosen to lead In a new study released his constituents to peace and in July, BESA Center reconciliation with their Jewish senior research associate neighbors, as he promised the Prof. Efraim Karsh British officials who appointed demonstrates that this him to his high rank in 1921, the argument is not only Palestinians would have had completely unfounded, their independent state over a The Myth of Palestinian Centrality

Efraim Karsh

MIDDLE EAST SECURITY AND Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 108 POLICY STUDIES

The Myth of Palestinian Centrality

Efraim Karsh

Israel and Kazakhstan: Assessing the State of daunting tasks of nation-building and state creation,” asks Karsh, “if they Bilateral Relations 13

Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 108 could drive their hapless constituents Dr. Gil Feiler and Kevjn Lim to lasting dispersal and statelessness Economic, cultural, political, while basking in international military and strategic interests sympathy for the Palestinian plight (including the confronting of Iran) substantial part of mandate Palestine and lining their pockets from the undergird the three-decade- by 1948, if not a decade earlier, and proceeds of this self-inflicted tragedy? old and growing relationship would have been spared the traumatic The attainment of statehood would between Israel and Kazakhstan. experience of dispersal and exile. Had have shattered Palestinian leaders’ Arafat set the PLO from the start on pan-Arab and Islamist delusions, not the path to peace and reconciliation to mention the kleptocratic paradise instead of turning it into one of the established on the backs of their 106 most murderous and corrupt terrorist long suffering subjects. It would have organizations in modern times, a transformed the Palestinians in one Palestinian state could have been fell swoop from the world’s ultimate

The Begin-Sadat Center established in the late 1960s or the victim into an ordinary (and most likely for Strategic Studies early 1970s; in 1979 as a corollary to the failing) nation-state thus terminating

Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty; by May decades of unprecedented South Korea’s Middle East Policy 1999 as part of the Oslo process; or at international indulgence.” Alon Levkowitz the very latest with the Camp David [email protected] summit of July 2000.” “It would have also driven the finalwww.besacenter.org nail in the PLO’s false pretense to be ‘the “Had Abbas abandoned his sole representative of the Palestinian predecessors’ rejectionist path, a people’ (already dealt a devastating Palestinian state could have been blow by Hamas’s 2006 electoral rout) South Korea’s Middle East Policy established after the Annapolis summit and would have forced any governing Dr. Alon Levkowitz of November 2007, or during President authority to abide, for the first time in Obama’s first term, after Netanyahu Palestinian history, by the principles of South Korea’s Middle East policy broke with the longstanding Likud accountability and transparency. Small balances political neutrality with a precept by publicly accepting the wonder, therefore, that whenever cautious policy towards Israel, as two-state solution and agreeing to the confronted with an international or Seoul is concerned that political establishment of a Palestinian state.” Israeli offer of statehood, Palestinian support for Israel will jeopardize its leaders will never take ‘yes’ for an positive standing in the Middle East. “But why should they engage in the answer.” Besa Center STudy ‏Securing the Jordan Valley and Protecting Israel

On a series of field tours, the Begin-Sadat Center studies Israel's security and settlement needs in the Jerusalem hills and Jordan Valley. Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan: "No warning system can replace the defensive space of the Jordan Valley, and Israel must never rely on foreign forces." Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan leads a BESA Center tour at the Sartava lookout in the Jordan Valley.

This spring, research associates of the Israel with the needed room to wage war should be able defend Israel against an 14 Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies against the threat of conventional attack attack from the east. Furthermore, the conducted a series of field tours in the from the outside; and room that allows for Jordan Valley is the eastern buffer zone Jerusalem hills and Jordan River valley, effectively combating terrorism. that prevents the West Bank mountain seeking to evaluate Israel’s long-term region from becoming a full-blown security and settlement needs in these ‏The mountains on the valley’s western terrorist entity, Dayan told the military areas, both in the context of the US-led edge (which range from 900 to 1,400 attaches on his tour. diplomatic process and beyond. meters edge high) create a physical defensive barrier that is traversable only ‏Dayan rejected the plans of some American ‏In addition, the center conducted a through five mountain passes. Thus, even and Israeli officials to replace Israeli forces strategic tour of the Jordan Valley for a limited IDF force deployed in the valley in the Jordan Valley with electronic early foreign military attaches, detection and warning systems and with led by Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi foreign forces, which was the essence of Dayan, who was head of the the security plan proposed by US General IDF Central Command, IDF John R. Allen on behalf of Secretary of Deputy Chief of Staff, and State John Kerry. “No warning system can National Security Adviser to replace the defensive space of the Jordan the Prime Minister. Valley, and Israel must never rely on foreign forces. Foreign troops will not risk their ‏Some of the study missions lives in the war on terror and they will be were hosted and guided by the first to flee the region should a crisis municipal leaders, including develop,” Dayan says. Jordan Valley Regional Council head David Elhayani Dayan also tackled the strategic situation. and Megilot Dead Sea “It’s true that the conventional military Regional Council head Motzi threat to Israel from the east has currently (Mordechai) Dehaman. diminished – with the end of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, the weakening General Dayan cogently and of war-torn Syria, and the impressive clearly laid out the argument stability of Jordan despite the turmoil in for defensible borders the Arab world. Yet this is a very short- that necessarily include term perspective, motivated by the desire the Jordan Valley. Only the to convince the Israeli public that the Jordan Rift Valley (which Jordan Valley is militarily dispensable. Reproduction of map courtesy Israel's Critical Security Requirements ranges between 6 and 14 for Defensible Borders: The Foundation for a Viable Peace, © 2011 This perspective ignores the immense km wide), he says, provides Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. potential for escalated political upheaval ‏Major General (res.) Yaacov Amidror Joins the BESA Center

in the region, including possible Jihadist ‏Amidror: destabilization of Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.” “If the Palestinians do ‏Dayan argues that Israeli negotiators of the not recognize Israel as past twenty years have approached security the nation state of the and diplomacy “with their heads screwed on backwards.” Israel, he says, “must move from Jews – any accord will a policy of security based on international not be worth the paper agreements and diplomatic guarantees to it is written on.” a policy of agreements based on security provided by Israeli forces deployed in ‏"Israel cannot accept defensible spaces. We have to think of defensible borders not only as markers that the accord apparently ensure Israel’s security needs, but as key ‏Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror, the Anne and Greg emerging between the building blocks which guarantee that peace Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the BESA Center US and Iran." treaties will be sustainable.”

Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin- Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror, who recently retired as National Security Advisor Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, goes one to the Prime Minister of Israel and the Head of the National Security Council, has step further. “If Israel wants to maintain a joined the BESA Center as the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Fellow. defensible border along the Jordan Valley it needs to secure the road from the coast to ‏Amidror (66) served with the Israel Defense Forces for 36 years (1966-2002). the valley, via an undivided Jerusalem and via During his long military career, General Amidror was commander of the IDF 15 the West Bank city of Maaleh Adumim. This is Military Colleges, military secretary to the Minister of Defense, director of the the only west-east axis with a Jewish majority, Intelligence Analysis Division (responsible for annual National Intelligence and the only safe route via which Israel can Assessment) in IDF Military Intelligence, head of a large scale technology mobilize troops from the coast to the Jordan project, intelligence chief of the Northern Command, and head of the “Devil’s Valley in a case of military emergency.” Advocate” unit in Military Intelligence.

“Thus Maaleh Adumim is the linchpin in ‏"I am honored to be joining the BESA Center, which is widely-respected as establishing an effective line of defence along one of the most thought-provoking and important think-tanks in Israel," says the valley against aggression from the east. Amidror. "I hope to be able to contribute to the development of new thinking Bolstering the populated Jewish corridor on the major security-diplomatic issues of the day." from Jerusalem to Maaleh Adumim, including ‏In his first two policy papers published at the BESA Center, General Amidror the five kilometre connecting strip of land has tackled the Palestinian and Iranian issues. known as E-1, is necessary to secure the road to the Jordan Valley and prevent the division ‏“Since the signing of the Oslo accords twenty years ago, Israel has adjusted of Jerusalem,” adds Inbar. “Now that the its diplomatic positions significantly towards the Palestinians, while the Kerry process has dead-ended, Israel should Palestinians have not moved one millimeter towards Israel on any issue,” move to reinforce its civilian presence in areas Amidror wrote in April before the American-brokered peace talks collapsed. well within national consensus – such as the “A consistent pattern of Palestinian inflexibility explains Prime Minister Jordan Valley and the E-1 corridor.” Netanyahu’s critical demand that Palestinian negotiators state clearly that they understand that the endgame of talks is to create a Jewish state of Israel Former National Security Advisor Maj. Gen. alongside the Arab Palestinian state. If the Palestinians do not recognize Israel (res.) Yaacov Amidror, the Anne and Greg as the nation state of the Jews – any accord will not be worth the paper it is Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the BESA written on.” Center, points out that in recent talks with ‏Amidror has also warned that Israel cannot accept the accord apparently the Palestinians Prime Minister Binyamin emerging between the US and Iran, in which Iran will be allowed to maintain a Netanyahu insisted upon maintaining “Israeli full nuclear fuel cycle. military forces along the Jordan River” – which is a cautious formulation that does “None of assumptions behind the emerging accord are sound: Neither the necessarily encompass Israeli sovereignty or assumption that a monitoring regime could guarantee identification in real settlement in the area. By contrast, former time of Iranian violations; nor the assumption that the US would act with Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin spoke of alacrity if a breach is identified; nor the assumption that in the real world retaining control over the Jordan Valley “in Iran will truly be deterred by US threats. An agreement along these lines the broadest meaning of that term.” would be far worse than no agreement, and could force Israel to respond independently,” Amidror warned. Conference ‏The IDF of the Future

‏Is it a mistake to downsize Israel's ground forces capabilities?

Dr. Eitan Shamir: "There are real battles ahead against well- entrenched Hamas and Dr. Eitan Shamir Hezbollah armies." Dr. Amir Rapaport

‏In December, the Begin-Sadat Center army was essentially eliminated by US ‏The third shift in the strategic 16 for Strategic Studies held a conference invasion in 2003. The Syrian army too environment relates to domestic to discuss the controversial cuts has been devastated by the civil war in politics. The large civil protest planned in the IDF ground forces. that country, with no end in sight. demonstrations in Israel of 2011 reflect Senior IDF officials and military experts a change in priorities of the Israeli presented their visions for the IDF of the ‏Instead of conventional armies, the IDF public: “More butter, fewer guns.” The future. finds itself occupied with operations result is a growing public pressure on against terror and guerilla organizations the IDF to become more effective and ‏Traditionally, the backbone of the IDF such as Hamas in Gaza, Islamic Jihad less costly. has been based on a large land army, in Sinai, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. comprised of heavy armored brigades The threat to Israel’s home front has ‏Ideally, like every military, the IDF supported by artillery and infantry. also changed, from bombardment by would like to have it all: The new F-35 Most of the ground forces were reserve hostile air forces to rocket and missile jet fighter and state-of-the-art Dolphin units mobilized from their homes in the fire by terror organizations. The country class submarines, the new Namer event of war. A strong air force ensured that most supports and supplies these APC and a new model of the Merkava air superiority of the sky and allowed organizations is a non-Arab state actor tank, and additional batteries of Iron the time for the reserves to deploy. that does not share a border with Israel Dome, Arrow and the new David Sling This system proved highly effective in – Iran. Iran also has a nuclear program missile defense systems. However, Israel’s first decades of existence, when that poses a threat to the entire Middle due to budget pressures, the IDF must the main strategic threat was large East. Under these circumstances Israel compromise and make hard choices. conventional Arab armies threatening must be able to project force thousands to invade Israel’s territory. of kilometers from home. ‏According to conference co-sponsor and speaker, military analyst Amir ‏Conference attendees were told, ‏The second shift relates to the latest Rappaport (publisher and editor of however, that three major strategic technological developments in the IsraelDefense magazine, and a research shifts occurred in the last two to three military (as well as civilian society) and associate at the BESA Center), IDF Chief- decades. First is the change in the the new possibilities they present on the of-Staff, Lt. Gen. (res.) Benny Gantz, has IDF’s main strategic challenge. The battlefield. The introduction of drones clearly decided to invest primarily in air last time the IDF engaged in combat and unmanned vehicles in the air, sea force capabilities, intelligence, special with a conventional army was on and land; networks of digital command operations forces, stand-off precision Lebanese soil against the Syrian army and control; precision fire that can be fire and cyber capabilities; at the in 1982. Since then, the threat from launched from almost any platform; and expense of its more traditional units, conventional armies has diminished. cyber-warfare – all hold the potential mainly the ground forces. This implies Egypt and Jordan signed peace treaties to alter, and in some cases have already that the IDF does not think it will need with Israel (in 1979 and 1994). Iraq’s changed, the way armies fight. to fight a conventional army force in the foreseeable future, nor will it have to concentrate it all in the hands of the air ‏Hacohen also warned the IDF not to conduct large scale ground maneuvers force. Today’s technology, he explained, neglect its ability to deploy a mass in enemy territory. allows for precision fire to be launched army. "A 'smart and small army based from the sea as well, making the IDF a on special forces' is a nice slogan, but ‏Two opposing schools of thought better balanced force. Another aspect sometimes the events dictate the need were presented in the conference. Marom discussed was the importance for large forces to operate. IDF planning The revisionist school supports the of the human factor: motivating soldiers in this regard needs to be reexamined." direction that Gantz is taking, while through the education of values. "Not a conservative school of thought everything is technology, and to put BESA Center research associate Dr. Eitan expresses concern that these changes boots on the ground you need well- Shamir (who organized the conference) will weaken the IDF and make it too motivated soldiers," he said. and Dr. Eado Hecht also argued that the dependent on technology. neglect of the IDFs ground forces poses a risk to Israel’s security. "There are real ‏An enthusiastic supporter of the battles ahead against well-entrenched new IDF direction was Brig. Gen. Gal Hamas and Hezbollah armies," they said. Hirsh, a division commander during the Second Lebanon War and current Proceedings of the conference have deputy commander of the IDF Depth now been published (in Hebrew) in the Command (a command formed in 2011 BESA Center's Colloquia on Strategy and to coordinate the IDF's long range Diplomacy series (no. 28). operations deep in enemy territory). Hirsh argued that the use of flexible 17 special operations forces equipped with excellent intelligence provides the best response for the current threat posed by various terror organizations. Hirsh’s view was supported by Brig. Gen. (res.) ‏Maj. Gen. Gershon Hacohen Avigdor Klein, former Chief Officer of the Armored Corps, who voiced his בניין הכוח של צה"ל Probably the strongest and most approval for reduction in armored forces as part of necessary adaptations original critique of the new IDF the IDF has to make. thinking was offered by Maj. Gen. Gershon Hacohen, the outgoing Corps ‏A different perspective was offered by Commander of the IDF General Staff. Vice Admiral (res.) Eli Marom, former General Hacohen argued that the Commander of the Navy. Marom IDF has become too dependent on stressed the need to diversify IDF technological solutions, rather than precision-fire capabilities and not to developing different strategies to cope דיונים בביטחון לאומי מס' with new threats. 28

‏"Military doctrine is a function of culture; it is never universal but is rooted in time and place. For years the hallmark of the IDF was the initiative and creativity of individual soldiers. Instead of the 'art of war,' today the IDF has become obsessed with the 'science of war' – statistics and numbers of targets hit – but this does not necessarily measure effectiveness. The IDF needs to maintain its ability to adapt to changing circumstances just like some of its rivals are doing. ‏Vice Admiral (res.) Eli Marom Technology cannot solve everything!" warned Hacohen. ‏Is Assad really giving up his chemical weapons?

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham of the BESA Center: "There is good reason to believe that Assad is hiding some of his chemical weapons stockpile. And even if Assad abides by his commitment, Syria’s equally Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham dangerous biological weapons stock will remain.

It was always clear that disarming Shoham suspects that Assad is Convention, and has no international 18 Syria’s chemical arsenal would be a stockpiling advanced weaponry – commitments in that regard. Syria has big challenge. Syria possessed a huge including chemical and biological arms been developing biological weapons chemical weapons arsenal, and the US- – in the heartland of his Alawite sect’s since the 1980s; these elements include Russia timetable for its dismantlement region. He apparently believes these certain bacterial pathogens and toxins was very condensed. Moreover, it was weapons could be useful in ensuring – and perhaps the smallpox virus – that clear from the beginning that the 1,300 his and his sect’s political, and perhaps have reached the level of deployable tons of chemical warfare agents and physical, survival in the event that Syria biological warfare agents. precursor chemicals declared by Assad eventually breaks up. "The international when he signed the Chemical Weapons community must ask what portion of "The Syrians have probably removed Convention underrepresented the Syria’s huge chemical weapons cache all components of their biological full amount he possessed. And since Assad intends to retain and hide even weapons program from facilities then, the Syrian president has been after international inspectors 'complete' that contained both chemical and playing games with the international the process, and where he is likely to biological components and are under inspectors. hide them," says Shoham. the international inspection regime," says Shoham. "But there are three So says Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, "The Syrian army also has a history separate facilities dedicated to the a microbiologist and senior research of smuggling and hiding chemical development, production, and storage associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for stockpiles in remote, unfamiliar areas of of biological weapons: adjacent to Strategic Studies. Shoham is recognized the country. And the weapons could be the port city of Latakia, in Cerin, and as a top Israeli expert on chemical transferred in secret from Syria to Iran, within the framework of the military and biological warfare in the Middle Russia, or Hezballah. This last scenario compounds affiliated with the General East. He is a former senior intelligence is particularly relevant considering that Establishment for Blood and Medical analyst in the Israel Defense Forces and parts of the arsenal are likely to bear Industries (also known as DIMAS), which the Israeli Ministry of Defense. damning indications of Iranian and is directly supervised by the Syrian Russian involvement. Furthermore, Ministry of Defense. These biological Already last fall, Shoham warned there is a real danger that parts of weapons depots must be dealt with." that Syria was acting with deep these stockpiles could be seized by al- ambivalence, if not subterfuge, Qaeda or other terror groups currently regarding its commitment to comply operating in Syria." with UN and OPCW demands to destroy its chemical weapons arsenal and Shoham also warns that the removal infrastructure. plan does apply to the country’s biological weapons complex. Syria is not a party to the Biological Weapons ‏The Dry Facts on West Bank Water ‏Prof. Haim Gvirtzman Rebuts Palestinian Water Libels

Palestinian water shortages are the result of Palestinian policies that deliberately waste water and destroy the regional water ecology. The PA is using water as a weapon against the State of Israel.

but rather in perpetuation of the "In Amman, the Jordanian capital, water is shortages and the besmirching of Israel. supplied to private homes just once every two weeks. In Syria, agricultural fields in "Here is just one little example of the Euphrates Valley are drying up due to Palestinian policy that leads to the upstream diversion of water by the extraordinary water waste," says Turks. In recent years (before the Arab Gvirtzman. "It's an open secret that Spring began), about three million farmers Prof. Haim Gvirtzman most West Bank and Gaza residents and migrated from the Euphrates Valley to the businesses do not pay the PA for the water outskirts of Damascus because their lands they use, in either their homes or fields. had dried up. In Damascus, too, the water A significant public debate was sparked There are simply no water meters on running in the river beds, which used for recently by the assertion of European pumping wells and no water meters at the drinking, is mixed with sewage. In Iraq, Parliament President Martin Schulz that entry to most homes, so it is impossible agricultural fields are drying up because the amount of water available to the for the PA to measure the amount of waters upstream on the Euphrates and average Israeli unfairly overwhelms the money owed by individual consumers. Tigris rivers are being diverted by the 19 amount of water available to the average Of course, people who don’t pay for Turks. There too, millions of farmers lost Palestinian. their water usage have no motivation to their lands." conserve." According to an important BESA Center "In Egypt, enormous amounts of water study by Prof. Haim Gvirtzman, the main Gvirtzman is a professor of hydrology at are lost due to flood irrigation. The Nile issue that should be discussed – and has the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and provides 30 times more water than Israel’s not been sufficiently analyzed – is: What a member of the Israel Water Authority annual usage and Egypt’s population is are the causes of Palestinian water supply Council. He is also a long-time advisor just 10 times greater than Israel. Therefore, problems? of the Israel-PA Joint Water Committee. we would expect to see a water surplus. He authored the BESA Center’s Nevertheless, Egypt suffers from severe Gvirtzman's answer is that water groundbreaking 2012 study on Israel- hunger and thirst due to severe wastage shortages in the Palestinian Authority Palestinian water issues, and now the of water. In North Africa too, there are are the result of Palestinian policies that 2014 brief. The recent article details four insufferable water shortages." deliberately waste water and destroy the ways in which the PA could quickly and regional water ecology. The Palestinians easily double or triple its water resources "By contrast, the State of Israel creates refuse to develop their own significant without assistance or interference from artificial water (desalinated seawater and underground water resources, build a Israel. recycled sewage) and behaves frugally seawater desalination plant, fix massive and effectively, and as a result there is leakage from their municipal water pipes, "Beyond these conclusions, it is no shortage of water, despite having build sewage treatment plants, irrigate worthwhile to consider a broader experienced many years of drought. land with treated sewage effluents or perspective on the water situation in Furthermore, the State of Israel is a net modern water-saving devices, or bill their the Middle East," says Gvirtzman. "The exporter of water! Israel supplies 55 own citizens for consumer water usage – Palestinians live in the shadow of the State million cubic meters of water each year to leading to enormous waste. of Israel, a world superpower in terms of Jordan, and sells 50 million cubic meters water technologies. Consequently, the to the Palestinians." At the same time, they drill illegally into Palestinians enjoy a relative Garden of Israel’s water resources, and send their Eden. Only in Israel, in the West Bank, Gvirtzman: "In the future, if and when sewage flowing into the valleys and and in Gulf States does sufficient, safe, peace is achieved, and cooperation is truly streams of central Israel. In short, the drinkable tap water exist in 96 percent desired by the Palestinians – which alas Palestinian Authority is using water as a of households. Residents in almost every they do not seek at the moment – the weapon against the State of Israel. It is not other country in the region suffer from State of Israel will be ready and able to interested in practical solutions to solve terrible water shortages." assist its neighbors in overcoming their the Palestinian people’s water shortages, water shortages." ‏Conferences in India and Germany ‏The Peretz and Shiendel Sherman Strategic Dialogue Program

The BESA Center’s Peretz and Shiendel Sherman Strategic Dialogue Program allows center experts to advance academic ties with overseas colleagues, while also conducting local interviews and outreach to government officials.

• In November, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies • In December, the center hosted a day-long discussion of associates Gilboa, Inbar, Rubin, Shpiro and Teitelbaum strategic issues, including the future of NATO and social participated in a Germany-Israel strategic dialogue in Berlin, resilience, with visiting scholars from the Bundeswehr co-sponsored by the Aspen Institute. The dialogue was held Universitat, the command college of the German military. on the day after the P5+1 announced its Geneva accord with the Iranians, providing the participants with fertile material for debate. • In January, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies associates Gilboa, Inbar, Rubin and Teitelbaum participated in an India-Israel strategic dialogue in New Delhi, co-sponsored by the Indian Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA). The BESA Center and IDSA have been conducted an annual strategic dialogue together for more than a decade. Talks focused on the role of the US, China’s ascendance, missile and naval defense, intelligence cooperation, nuclear challenges, terrorism, the Arab upheavals and other issues of shared concern. 20 • In November, the center hosted a discussion on Singaporean approaches to national security and the combat of terrorism with visiting scholars Dr. Damien Cheong, Ms. Sulastri Osman, Dr. Norman Vasu and Prof. Kumar Ramakrishna – from the S. Singaporean scholars Dr. Damien Cheong, Ms. Sulastri Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Osman, Dr. Norman Vasu and Prof. Kumar Ramakrishna.

‏Conference Intelligence and Security in the Middle East

Organized by BESA Center research associates Prof. Shlomo Shpiro (chairman of the BIU political Studies department and chairman of the International Intelligence History Association) and Dr. Jonathan Rynhold (director of the Argov Center for the Study of Israel), this conference explored a wide range of topics relating to Israel’s intelligence services and their operations in the Middle East. Sessions were devoted to the interaction between intelligence services and the media, propaganda and psychological warfare, and future intelligence battlefields including cyberspace and the home front. Gen. André Ranson, former director of French military intelligence, gave the keynote address. Among the speakers: Mr. Amir Bohbot, Senior Military Correspondent, Walla; Mr. Menachem Navot, former Deputy Head of the Mossad; Mr. Yaacov Kedmy, former Head of “Nativ”; Mr. Eitan Glazer, former Senior Shin Bet officer; Mrs. Ariela Ringel- Hoffman, Yediot Ahronot; Dr. Ron Schleifer, Ariel University; Dr. Glen Segell, INSS; Brig. Gen. (res.) Efraim Lapid; Maj. Gen. (res.) Yiftach Ron-Tal, Chairman, Israel Electric Corp.; Dr. Yoaz Hendel, Institute for Zionist Strategies; Mr. Erez Gen. André Ranson, former director of French military intelligence. Kreiner, former Head of the National Information Security Authority; and Dr. John Nomikos, Research Institute for American and European Studies. LECTURES

Dr. Chuck Freilich, a former Prof. Steven R. David, Professor of Prof. Eliot A. Cohen, the Robert E. Israeli Deputy National Security International Relations and Vice Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies Advisor and author of Zion’s Dean for Undergraduate Education at SAIS Johns Hopkins University Dilemmas: How Israel Makes at Johns Hopkins University, and and a member of the BESA Center’s National Security Policy, lectured a member of the BESA Center’s International Academic Advisory Board, in November on “Israeli National International Academic Advisory lectured in December on “The Big Stick: Security Decision-Making.” Board, lectured in June on “Obama: Force and American Foreign Policy in The Reluctant Realist.” the Age of Obama and Beyond.”

Nebojša Radmanović, a Sung-Kyu Kwak, a senior Prof. P.R. Kumaraswamy, member of the Presidency of Korean diplomat who served director of the Gulf Studies Bosnia and Herzegovina from in Iran and is now a visiting Program at Jawaharlal Nehru Republika Srpska, lectured in scholar at the BESA Center, University in New Delhi, December on “The Balkans in lectured in March on “The lectured in May on “India’s International Relations.” Iranian Leadership.” Elections and Foreign Policy.”

Dr. Amin Tarzi, director of Prof. Raphael Israeli of the Mr. Uzi Rubin, a senior research the Middle East Studies at Hebrew University lectured associate as the BESA Center and the Marine Corps University in June on “Why the Recent former director of Israel’s Arrow in Quantico, Virginia, Malaise was Neither Arab missile program, lectured in June lectured in May on “Iran’s nor Spring.” on “Missiles and Weapons of Mass Nuclear Politics.” Destruction in the Syrian Civil War.” ‏Selected BESA PERSPECTIVES PAPERS 215 216 217 Forty Years to the What Does “Getting the Bomb” Washington Must Strike Iran, Yom Kippur War Mean? Not Bargain with It Prof. Efraim Inbar Dr. Max Singer Prof. Efraim Inbar The Israeli victory in 1973 was The West is headed towards an Iran is just buying time until it has a marred by pain over casualties and agreement with Iran, who will not nuclear break-out capability and the disappointment with the country’s produce nuclear weapons but further ability to threaten world security. The leadership. Forty years later, Israel enrich uranium and plutonium. US must act militarily to stop Iran and prospers as a powerful nation with a However, it is possible that Iran will restore its international credibility. strong, resilient society. be able to produce several bombs, too quickly to be stopped.

218 220 221 Kerry’s Antagonism Unmasked The West’s Hubris: Is the Price of Israel vs. the Iran-Hizballah the Iraq War a Nuclear Iran? Axis David M. Weinberg Dr. Jonathan Rynhold Yaakov Lappin John Kerry has abandoned America’s honest broker stance The West was arrogant thinking it The IDF and the Iran-Hizballah axis 22 in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, could transform Iraq into a stable are in the midst of a long-term laying out the consequences for democracy in 2003. Believing that military build-up, preparing for the Israel of disobeying America, Iran can be dissuaded from its possibility of a full-scale eruption but doing no such thing for course without the credible threat of the ongoing covert struggle the Palestinians if they remain of military strikes is an even greater between them. intransigent. show of hubris.

222 223 224 France and the Iranian Nuclear A Strike on Iran: Complex, But The Geneva Interim Accord: Program Possible A Bad Deal Dr. Tsilla Hershco Prof. Efraim Inbar David M. Weinberg France’s bold move to hold up a An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear The interim accord reached in nuclear deal between the P5+1 and infrastructure is a risky and Geneva regarding Iran’s nuclear Iran reflects its broader policy and militarily-complicated endeavor, but program is a bad deal that genuine concern about a nuclear Iran. within reach. Israeli ingenuity and enshrines Iran’s status as a nuclear determination could lead to a great threshold state and paves Tehran’s operational and political success. path towards a nuclear bomb.

226 228 229 Yemen under Attack Saudi-Israeli Relations: Erdogan Is in Trouble Balancing Legitimacy and Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay Security Prof. Efraim Inbar Yemen is on the verge of becoming a The Turkish Prime Minister is facing Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum failed state, as the interim government unprecedented political pressure that struggles to fight terrorist groups, such Given its history and concern for the might precipitate the end of his rule. as al-Qaeda, that have made Yemen a legitimacy of its rule, the Saudis are base of operations. more likely to draw closer to Iran than to collaborate with Israel. Selected BESA PERSPECTIVES PAPERS 230 231 233 Egypt and the Threat of Winning the BDS Battle India Advances in Naval Arms Islamic Terror Race with China Dr. Jonathan Rynhold Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay Dr. Micha’el Tanchum To defeat BDS, the government Egypt’s new rulers are faced with a should let Israeli society and pro- India regards China’s efforts to terror problem emanating from the Israel groups abroad take the lead, enhance its naval presence in the Sinai, led by radical jihad groups. and focus the debate on Israel’s Indian Ocean as undermining its The US and international community legitimacy. strategic position. India has beefed must support the Egyptian regime to up its naval capabilities in response. prevent Egypt from turning into the next Syria.

234 235 236 Canada’s Consummate Support The Threat of the “Salafi India-Israel Defense for Israel Crescent” Cooperation David M. Weinberg Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay Alvite Singh Ningthoujam Canada strongly defends Israel, Attempts by al-Qaeda and other Defense relations between India consistently before any other radical Sunni Islamist groups to and Israel are flourishing and will 23 country in the world. Prime Minister challenge the Shia Crescent (Iraq, continue to be strong. Stephen Harper is a valuable ally Syria, and Lebanon) must be viewed and trusted friend. as a serious security threat.

237 240 242 The Boycott Mirage Is the GCC in Peril? Recognition of Jewish Israel is Critical for Palestinians Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror A collapse in Israeli-Palestinian peace Tension over Qatar’s support for the talks will not lead to an international Muslim Brotherhood has damaged An agreement between Israel boycott of Israel. Jerusalem’s robust relations between Doha and its Gulf and the Palestinians must include trade relations with many countries neighbors. The days of the GCC may Palestinian recognition of Israel as will not freeze over an impasse in be numbered. the nation state of the Jews, or it is negotiations. not worth the paper it is written on.

248 249 253 China is the Likely Winner in Living with Iran: Israel’s Hit Hamas Hard to Create a Ukraine Strategic Imperative Different Strategic Balance Against Islamic Terrorism David P. Goldman Prof. Louis René Beres and Prof. Hillel Frisch After decades of negotiations General John T. Chain between Moscow and Beijing for a Iran must never be allowed to It is time for a full-scale offensive long term natural gas mega-contract, believe that Israel’s strategic forces against Hamas and the other it seems that Russia has finally are somehow too vulnerable to Islamist-Jihadist groups in Gaza. relented to China’s terms. first-strike attack, or too destructive for operational military use. The BESA Center Mowing the Grass: The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University seeks to contribute to Israel’s Strategy for Protracted the advancement of Middle East peace and security by conducting policy-relevant research Intractable Conflict on strategic subjects, particularly as they relate to the national security and foreign policy of Israel. Founded by Thomas O. Hecht, a Canadian Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Eitan Shamir Jewish community leader, the Center is a non- partisan and independent institute dedicated Six months before Israel launched to the memory of the late Israeli prime minister Operation Protective Edge to 105 Menachem Begin and the late Egyptian president halt Hamas rocket and missile Anwar Sadat. fire from the Gaza Strip, BESA Obama’s Best Friend? Center associates Inbar and International TAhedvisory Alarming Board Evolution of Shamir outlined Israel's need Thomas O. HechtUS Ph.D.,-Turkish Founder Relations and Chairman to constantly "mow the grass" Saul Koschitzky, Vice Chairman in order to degrade enemy Prof. Moshe Arens,Dr. Ariel Ms. Marion Cohen Hecht, Mr. Robert capabilities. Hecht, Prof. Riva Heft-Hecht, Hon. Shlomo Hillel, Mr. Joel Koschitzky,Shifts Amb. in Turkey’s Yitzhak domestic Levanon, Sen.political "Our assumption is that Israel Joseph I. Lieberman,orientation Mr. Robert have K.led Lifton, to a changeMaj. Gen. in will remain is a situation of (res.) Daniel Matt,Ankara’s Rt. Hon. perceptions Brian Mulroney, of its Mr.foreign Seymour D. Reich, Amb. Meir Rosenne, Mr. Greg protracted intractable conflict policy roles and capabilities. Rosshandler, Amb.The USZalman has misunderstood Shoval, Amb. Norman and for the long-term," explains Prof. Spector, Mr. Muzi Wertheim. Inbar. "Consequently, Israel needs largely ignored this shift, failing a strategy to manage continuous conflict against hostile non- International toAcademic understand Advisory the implications Board of state groups. We explain that the use of force in such a conflict Prof. DesmondTurkey’s Ball, Australian transformation National Universityunder the is not intended to attain impossible political goals, but rather is Prof. Ian Beckett,AKP. University A strong of and Northampton comprehensive a strategy of attrition designed to temporarily deter the enemy Prof. Eliot Cohen,policy SAIS, towards Johns Hopkins Turkey Universityis long and bring about periods of quiet along Israel's borders." Prof. Irwin Cotler,overdue. McGill University Prof. Steven R. David, Johns Hopkins University The two scholars show in their (Hebrew-language) study that Prof. Yehezkel Dror, Hebrew University this Israeli approach is substantively different from the current Prof. Lawrence Freedman, King’s College London Western strategic thinking on dealing with non-state military Prof. Patrick James, University of Southern California challenges. Their review of Operation Defensive Shield (2002), Prof. Robert J. Lieber, Georgetown University the Second Lebanon War (2006), Operation Cast Lead (2008- 2009), and Operation Pillar of Defense (2012), shows that Israel Executive Council evinced great restraint for lengthy periods of time in the face Prof. Eytan Gilboa (Chairman), Prof. Elisha Haas, of enemy attacks before striking back forcefully to destroy the Dr. Thomas O. Hecht, Prof. Daniel Hershkowitz, capabilities of its foes. Prof. Efraim Inbar, Prof. Daniel Levy, Prof. Zemira Mevarech, Prof. Shmuel Sandler, Prof. Shlomo "This is constant, hard work," says Dr. Shamir. "Keeping the Shpiro, Prof. Haim Teitelbaum. enemy off balance and reducing its capabilities requires Israeli military readiness and a willingness to use Center Director force intermittingly, while maintaining a healthy and Prof. Efraim Inbar resilient Israeli home front despite repeated military offensives." “It indeed must be frustrating to all Director of Public Affairs and Bulletin Editor David M. Weinberg Israelis,” adds Prof. Inbar, “but a war of attrition against the Hamas is probably our fate for the long term, and Program Coordinator we will quite frequently need to strike Gaza in order Hava Waxman Koen keep the enemy off balance.” Production Editor (English) The Inbar/Shamir study was originally published in Liana Kalkopf Rubin Beyad Halashon Communications / www.mesh.co.il the prestigious Journal of Strategic Studies. Production Editor (Hebrew) Alona Briner Rozenman

Administration ‏The Saul and Esther Beckman Ortal Nahum Internship in Mideast Peace and Security ‏The BESA Center was pleased this summer to award the first Saul and Esther Beckman Internship in Mideast Peace Bar-Ilan University North American address: and Security. The scholarship was awarded to Ariel Vishne, Ramat Gan 52900 Israel 5485 Pare St., Montreal an outstanding student in Middle East history at Bar-Ilan Tel. 972-3-531-8959 Quebec Canada H4P 1P7 University, who will become a research intern at the BESA Fax 972-3-535-9195 TEL: 514-735-1155 Center for eight months. [email protected] FAX: 514-735-3361