Vol.15. No. 2 /Winter 1991 $6.25 WHAT DO WE BELIEVE? A New Gallup Poll

*-. •

Gerard Piel on Science & Self-Government Illness|Hysteria/ The Barnum Effect Personality Test#/ Prayer / Clairvoyance

Published by the Comm THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. Editor Kendrick Frazier. Editorial Board James E. Alcock, Martin Gardner, Ray Hyman, Philip J. Klass, Paul Kurtz, James Randi. Consulting Editors Isaac Asimov, William Sims Bainbridge, John R. Cole, Kenneth L. Feder, C. E. M. Hansel, E. C. Krupp, David F. Marks, Andrew Neher, James E. Oberg, Robert Sheaffer, Steven N. Shore. Managing Editor Doris Hawley Doyle. Contributing Editor Lys Ann Shore. Business Manager Mary Rose Hays. Assistant Editor Andrea Szalanski. Art Valerie Ferenti-Cognetto. Chief Data Officer Richard Seymour. Computer Assistant Michael Cione. Typesetting Paul E. Loynes. Audio Technician Vance Vigrass. Librarian, Ranjit Sandhu. Staff Lynda Harwood (Asst. Public Relations Director), Leland Harrington, Sandra Lesniak, Alfreda Pidgeon, Kathy Reeves. Cartoonist Rob Pudim.

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Paul Kurtz, Chairman; philosopher, State University of New York at Buffalo. Barry Karr, Executive Director and Public Relations Director. Lee Nisbet, Special Projects Director. Fellows of the Committee (partial list) James E. Alcock, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto; Isaac Asimov, biochemist, author; Irving Biedennan, psychologist. University of Minnesota; Susan Blackmore, psychologist. Brain Perception Laboratory, University of Bristol, England; Henri Broch, physicist, University of Nice, France; Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University; John R. Cole, anthropologist, Institute for the Study of Human Issues; F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif.; L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer; Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K.: Paul Edwards, philosopher, Editor, Encyclopedia of Philosophy; Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K.; Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, executive officer, Astronomical Society of the Pacific; editor of Mercury; Kendrick Frazier, science writer. Editor, THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER; Yves Galifret, Exec. Secretary, I'Union Rationaliste; Martin Gardner, author, critic- Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, California Institute of Technology; Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, broadcaster, Toronto; Stephen Jay Gould, Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ.; C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales; Al Hibbs, scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human understanding and cognitive science, Indiana University; Ray Hyman, psychologist, Univ. of Oregon; Leon Jaroff, sciences editor. Time; Lawrence Jerome, science writer, engineer; Philip J. Klass, science writer, engineer; Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Observatory; Paul Kurtz, chairman, CSICOP, Buffalo, N.Y.; Lawrence Kusche, science writer; Paul MacCready, scientist/ engineer, AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif.; David Marks, psychologist, Middlesex Polytech, England; David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Research Center; Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley; H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president. Bangalore Science Forum, India; Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist, Cornell University. Joe Nickell, author, technical writing instructor, University of Kentucky; Lee Nisbet, philosopher, Medaille College; James E. Oberg, science writer; John Paulos, mathematician, Temple University; Mark Plummer, lawyer, Australia; W. V. Quine, philosopher, Harvard Univ.; James Randi, magician, author; Milton Rosenberg, psychologist. University of Chicago; Carl Sagan, astronomer, Cornell Univ.; Evry Schatzman, President, French Physics Association; Eugenie Scott, physical anthropologist, executive director. National Center for Science Education, Inc.; Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, linguist, Indiana University; Robert Sheaffer, science writer; B. F. Skinner, psychologist, Harvard Univ.; Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia; Robert Steiner, magician, author, El Cerrito, California; Carol Tavris, psychologist, UCLA; Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Northwestern Univ.; Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. (Affiliations given for identifi­ cation only.)

Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kendrick Frazier, Editor, THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 3025 Palo Alto Dr., N.E., Albuquerque, NM 87111. Subscriptions, change of address, and advertising should be addressed to: THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Box 229, Buffalo, NY 14215-0229. Old address as well as new are necessary for change of subscriber's address, with six weeks advance notice. Subscribers to THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER may not speak on behalf of CSICOP or THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made to Paul Kurtz, Chairman, CSICOP, Box 229, Buffalo, NY 14215-0229. Tel.: (716) 834-3222. FAX: (716)-834-0841. Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. Copyright e1990 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, 3159 Bailey Ave., Buffalo, NY 14215-0229. All rights reserved. Subscription Rates: Individuals, libraries, and institutions, $25.00 a year; back issues, $6.25 each. Postmaster: THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is published quarterly. Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall, by CSICOP, Inc. Printed in the U.S.A. Second-class postage paid at Buffalo, New York, and additional mailing offices. Send changes of address to THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Box 229, Buffalo, NY 14215-0229. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Vol. 15, No. 2. Winter 1991 I I ISSN 0194-6730 Journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal I ~l SPECIAL REPORT/GALLUP POLL 137 Belief in Paranormal Phenomena Among Adult Americans George H. Gallup, Jr., and Frank Newport I I ARTICLES Science and Self-Government Gerard Piel 147 The West Bank Collective Hysteria Episode: The Politics of Illness James R. Stewart 153 Acceptance of Personality Test Results Philippe Thiriart 161 Belief in Astrology: A Test of the Bamum Effect Christopher French, Mandy Fowler, Katy McCarthy, and Debbie Peers 166 A Test of Clairvoyance Using the Method of Signal Detection Stuart J. McKelvie and Helene Gagn6 173 Intercessory Prayer As Medical Treatment? An Inquiry Jeff Wltmer and Michael Zimmerman 177 I I NEWS AND COMMENT 115 Government Supports Homeopathy Experiment / "Holy Stones" / Fake Levitation Photo / APA Hoax / Psychic Investment Counseling / Advice for Grandchildren / Soccer Predictions a Bust I I NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER 128 Tipler's Omega Point Theory Martin Gardner I I PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS 135

] BOOK REVIEWS Howard Blum, Out There (Philip J. Mass) 181 Victor J. Stenger, Physics and Psychics (Steven Hoffmaster) 184 Joe Nickell and John F. Fischer, Secrets of the Supernatural (Robert A Baker) 186 Edith Fiore,Encounters (J. R. Corey) 188 Joe Nickell, The Magic Detectives; James ("The Amazing") Randi, The Magic World of The Amazing Randi (Robert A Baker) 190 I SOME RECENT BOOKS 192

ARTICLES OF NOTE 194 FORUM 200 Bad Teaching / Wild Animals / Human Needs LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 209 CSICOP NEWS Skepticism in Europe, Paul Kurtz 218 ON THE COVER: Illustration by R. Martin. Cover design by Valerie Ferenti-Cognetto. The Skeptical Inquirer... "he perfect gift for relatives and friends.

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"1 The Para-Plus Predicament: J Homeopathy in Canada

anadian veterinarian Peter Langer has sold more than C$200,000 worth of water to farmers as an experimental medicine that he claims cures a common udder disease in dairy cows. "But it's very special water," says the 68-year-old owner of Dorchester Laboratories, in a small town 15 kilometers east of London, Ontario. Langer has been selling the contro­ versial "processed" water remedy for the past three and a half years under the auspices of an experimental license from the Canadian federal govern­ ment's agriculture section, known as Agriculture Canada. He says Para-Plus, the remedy's trade name, has already cured mas­ titis, a common dairy cattle infection, ;n hundreds of cows. Many farmers are using Langer's product—which costs $45 for four 25-cc injections— and say they are getting excellent than a century. (See '"Homeopathy," results. One farmer called it a "flipping by Stephen Barrett, SI, Fall 1987.) miracle." Hahnemann's prescientific theories If Langer is right it would have to have never been proved and defy the be a miracle. And it would turn the basic laws of physics, chemistry, and world's scientific community on its biology. ear. Langer's treatment, which he calls That's because Langer's product is a "parabiologic," has been almost based on homeopathy, a theory of universally rejected by the agricultural medicine devised by Samuel Hahne­ scientific community. They say his mann (1755-1843), a German physi­ theory is antiquated, his studies poorly cian, and refuted by scientists for more designed, and his reported successes

Winter 1991 115 based on anecdotal evidence, which is backing or the supportive data that I not considered scientifically valid. have already provided for this one." The parabiologic controversy For their part, the biologies depart­ raises some vital questions. How did ment is looking for scientific evidence Langer get an experimental license for that Para-Plus works, and time is a product that has no basis in modern running out for Langer. Langer, who science? And will the Canadian holds a doctor of veterinary medicine government license him to sell some­ degree (D.V.M.) from the University thing the scientific community calls of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. in virol­ bunk? ogy from Cornell, will not reveal the Officials at Agriculture Canada say exact process he uses to make the they granted the experimental license parabiologic, but says it is "prepared to Langer because mastitis is a serious, from the bacteria most commonly widespread problem for dairy farmers. associated with bovine mastitis." He Mastitis is an infection of a cow's thinks the remedy stimulates an mammary gland, caused by micro­ immunological response in the cow organisms, that results in swelling and through the transfer of energy. redness. Clinical mastitis affects the Langer admits "the mechanisms by milk, making it unusable, and if the which parabiologics work are not yet disease is left untreated it can cause fully understood," but he insists they permanent scarring of the cow's do work. Essentially, Langer is follow­ udder. The usual treatment—antibi­ ing homeopathic principles, which otics—isn't always effective and leaves state that the smaller the dose of a residues in the milk, rendering it substance, the more powerful its unsuitable for sale. Either way, the effect. And Langer admits that, like loss of milk is tough on farmers and most homeopathic remedies, his para­ expensive for consumers. biologic uses dilutions that reduce the Because the disease is so common, original active ingredient past the officials wanted to give Langer's point where any of the substance product a chance to prove itself. He remains. He suggests that an "energy also had done preliminary work with imprint" is left in the water that indications that parabiologics might be activates the "bioenergy" and "electro­ effective, said Doug Alexander, chief magnetic forces" in the cow, bolster­ of the Veterinary Biologies and Bio­ ing its ability to fight disease. (See technology Section of the Animal "The Remembering Water Contro­ Health Division of Agriculture Can­ versy," SI, Winter 1989). Langer even ada. It's important to note that Langer warns users to store the product away is the former chief of the department from magnets, microwaves, and that granted him the license. He held X-rays, because magnetic radiation the position of chief of veterinary will destroy its potency. Scientists call biologies from 1973 to 1979, and was all that nonsense. senior staff veterinarian in the food But Langer points to three years' production branch until his retirement worth of studies in which several in 1987. forms of the parabiologic were field- Langer admits his association with tested on more than 200 cows. He said the department may have helped him Para-Plus has, not surprisingly, been at first, but not anymore. "There's no shown to be perfectly safe with no side favoritism being shown whatever," he effects. He said he has achieved cure said. "They've licensed products in the rates as high as 80 percent in clinical past that haven't had a fraction of the trials and 70 percent in cows induced

116 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 with mastitis in controlled trials. But critics point out that Langer's 'Holy Stones' of double-blind, placebo-controlled trials Newark, Ohio, involved small numbers of cows (30), and that parabiologics have not been Not So Holy After All tested on a range of pathogens that cause mastitis. Critics also point out that mastitis is highly variable and has he spectacular mound and earth­ a spontaneous cure rate that can be work sites of eastern North Amer­ as high as 50 percent. Tica once were assumed to be the Langer has submitted his data and work of a lost white race of "mound- is awaiting a decision. Also, at the builders." The Native Americans, it Nova Scotia Agricultural College in was claimed, were too savage, stupid, Truno, N.S., professor Alan Fredeen and unambitious to have accomplished is conducting a small study using such astonishing engineering feats. Langer's Para-Plus. Fredeen says it is This racist theme is echoed in the not a placebo-controlled trial and the perennial chorus of claims purporting study is not complete. to "prove" that one or another Old In the meantime, scientists have World civilization discovered and questioned the validity of Langer's colonized the Americas long before entire trial, particularly one lasting Leif Ericson and Christopher Colum­ more than three years. "Someone bus ("Anthropology Beyond the somehow should really be questioning Fringe," by John R. Cole, SI, Spring/ how much water you can sell under Summer 1978:62-71; "Deciphering an experimental license," said one Ancient America," by Marshall dairy cattle specialist. McKusick, SI, Spring 1981:44-50). The government said it needs more One of the more popular contenders data from Langer and more time to in this debate has been the so-called evaluate the results. Wallace Samp­ Lost Tribes of Israel, and a handful son, a professor of medicine at Stan­ of graven images from Licking ford University School of Medicine County, Ohio, has been offered as (see his "When Not to Believe the evidence for a prehistoric Hebrew Unbelievable," SI, Fall 1989), says the presence in America. government is on the scientific hot The Newark "Holy Stones" are five seat: If it agrees that Langer's product small stone carvings bearing Hebrew actually works the way he says it inscriptions that reportedly came from works, the repercussions would be enormous. "Not only medicine, but chemistry, physics, astronomy, geology, ecology, every scientific discipline, would have to rewrite all the books," Sampson said.

—Paul Benedetti

Paul Benedetti is a reporter with the Hamilton Spectator, Hamilton, Ontar­ io. He has written numerous articles on alternative health and "holistic" medicine.

Winter 1991 117 within mounds and earthen enclo­ carved his name across two of the sures in and around Newark, Ohio. Holy Stones. Unfortunately, gullible The initial discoveries were made in scholars, grasping at straws to prove 1860 by David Wyrick, an avid pro­ a treasured theory, have failed for ponent of the theory that the Lost more than a century to get the joke. Tribes of Israel had constructed the Alrutz insists that McCulloch's great mounds and earthworks of the demonstration that two of the Holy Ohio Valley. Wyrick's "discoveries" Stones are fakes has no implications were dismissed as frauds by archaeol­ for the authenticity of Wyrick's ogists, but in subsequent years a few original discoveries. McCulloch, him­ additional "Hebrew Stones" were self an advocate of Barry Fell's claims uncovered by seemingly independent of pre-Columbian Old World contacts investigators. These corroborative with America, agrees. However, the finds have been used by Robert only possible substantive test of the Alrutz, retired professor of biology at authenticity of the Holy Stones is the Denison University, to support his recovery of corroborating artifacts by opinion that the Holy Stones are independent investigators. If the only genuine relics of antiquity left by pre- corroborative discoveries are demon­ Columbian Hebrew "discoverers" of strated to be frauds, it becomes America. reasonable to assume that the original Contemporary reports suggested finds are themselves fraudulent. that at least two of the subsequent The Newark Holy Stones were finds were the work of a local practical "discovered" during a period when the joker named John H. Nicol. Nicol science of archaeology was in its believed that Wyrick had faked the infancy. There were no established original Holy Stones and decided to field techniques, and methods of fabricate his own and plant them in recording and analyzing data generally mounds in order to prove just how were not sophisticated. During this gullible people could be. Alrutz dis­ period, serious consideration was missed these reports as apocryphal being given to the notion that Native and concluded that the artifacts were American cultures had been influ­ too sophisticated for Nicol to have enced by various Old World civiliza­ faked. tions, and there was, according to one Recent epigraphic research, author in an 1892 issue of Science, announced in the Newark Advocate of virtually a "constant recurrence of June 6, 1990, has now established frauds" in support of one or another beyond a reasonable doubt that two of these competing theories. of the Holy Stones are clever hoaxes Given such a lively historical con­ perpetrated by John Nicol. J. Huston text it is necessary to view any McCulloch, professor of economics at extraordinary discovery from this Ohio State University, has transliter­ period with a skeptical eye. It is ated the Hebrew inscriptions that important to keep an open mind, but appear on two of the artifacts. The it is useful and legitimate to evaluate English equivalents of the Hebrew nineteenth-century claims on the letters, when read in proper sequence, basis of twentieth-century knowl­ spell out the following: J - H - NCL. edge. In the case of the Newark Holy By adding the vowels, which Hebrew Stones, this means that Wyrick's claim does not apply, McCulloch derived the that ancient Hebrews lived in Licking name J[ohn] - H - NiCoL. It seems, County must be balanced by the utter therefore, that the waggish Nicol lack of corroborating evidence

118 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 obtained by modern investigators and learning; to believe the false, using improved methods of survey rather than the true, so long as it and excavation. If ancient Hebrews strongly appeals to their love of the were present in the Americas, then marvelous. we should find evidence of their And this credulity is, in turn, fostered and encouraged by shrewd settlements: towns, villages, trading empirics who see in it something camps, and so on. For example, it has that may be worked to their own been demonstrated that Vikings were advantage; or stimulated by the present in North America before honest but mistaken enthusiast Columbus by the discovery and exca­ who wishes to believe, and to have vation of the site of L'Anse aux others believe, that these mounds Meadows in Newfoundland. of earth indicate for ancient Amer­ Unfortunately for advocates of the ica a dominion of half-forgotten Holy Stones, no modern archaeolog­ empires of the East. (Gerard Fowke, 1889) ical research project in the Americas has yet located an ancient Hebrew —Bradley T. Lepper settlement. Moreover, scores of twentieth-century scientific excava­ Bradley Lepper is the curator of the tions of Woodland Period sites in Newark Earthworks State Memorials for eastern North America have not the Ohio Historical Society and has been produced a single artifact derived from a visiting lecturer in anthropology at any Old World civilization. Denison University. It also must be pointed out that the Old World colonists would have carried with them much more than a few enigmatic stone carvings. After 1492, and especially after the De Soto amous Levitation and Coronado expeditions in 1539 and 1540, North American Indian popu­ F Photo Is a Fake lations were decimated by European diseases against which they had no immunity. In other words, they had erhaps the most famous photo­ never been exposed to these diseases graph of a person supposedly before. If they had at some time in Plevitating has been shown to be the past been exposed to Europeans a fake. The photograph, of the Bra­ (or Africans, or Asians), then the zilian medium Carlos Mirabelli, was catastrophic population declines of the taken in 1934. It shows Mirabelli, clad sixteenth century would have in a white lab coat, apparently floating occurred sooner, at the time of initial in the air several feet off the ground. contact. Moreover, such a catastrophe In the past, all copies of the photo­ would not be repeated in the sixteenth graph have been reproduced from century because the surviving Indians poor-quality copies. would have built up immunities to the I recently discovered the original foreign diseases. A biologist like print in the Manuscript Room of the Alrutz should understand this. Cambridge University Library in England. This print, inscribed by The truth of the matter probably Mirabelli to the British researcher is, that all this misconception is due Theodore Besterman, who was sent to the readiness of people to accept to Brazil by the Society for Psychical notoriety and bombast for authority Research in 1934 to investigate Mira-

Winter 1991 119 The APA first became aware of the edge this is the first time anyone has hoax in early August, when someone sought to victimize the American who had received a copy handed it to Psychological Association in this way. association officials at an APA confer­ Barry Karr comments: "This sort of ence. By the end of the month, APA's thing isn't unknown. It does happen Media Relations Department had with organizations from time to time." fielded about half a dozen calls con­ cerning the release. —Lys Ann Shore According to Lisa Wyatt, APA's director of public affairs, the hoax Lys Ann Shore is a Washingon, D.C., letter seems to have been sent to writer and editor and a SKEPTICAL "organizations, including publications INQUIRER contributing editor. and individuals that have a special interest in parapsychology." Both the stationery and envelopes used were genuine, indicating that the perpetra­ tor must somehow have gained access Psychic Forecasting to them. The fact that CSICOP received an "original" of the release, III For Investors and not a photocopy, indicated to Executive Director Barry Karr that "someone wanted us to have it." sychics, astrologers, and others Much of the release consisted of who claim to foresee the future lengthy comments attributed to "Dr. Ptake umbrage when asked, "How Gary Vandenbos, a longtime APA come, if you can predict the future, executive." In fact, Dr. Vandenbos does exist: he's the director of pub­ lications and communications at APA. "But that is the only genuine fact in the entire release," says Lisa Wyatt emphatically. Other claims made in the release have no foundation in truth. These false claims are: • that APA has created a "special committee to research, document and investigate all parapsychological claims that it can uncover." • that Dr. Vandenbos was "named to head this committee." • that the committee "would be investigating all forms of paranormal phenomena." • that the committee "will be getting a 1-800 number so that people from across the United States can call in their reports." • that APA will establish "a new APA journal called 'The Journal of American Parapsychology.' " Lisa Wyatt says that to her knowl-

Winter 1991 121 0 Advice to a Grandchild

here is something about a universe that is somewhat becoming a parent or grand­ older. You are a member of the parent that focuses the species Homo sapiens and your T distant ancestors were of differ­ mind. Barry Williams, president of the Australian Skeptics, ent species. You are not the descendant of purpose-built wrote the following for his humans who were designed to newborn grandson. It has dominate our planet, nor are you already been picked up from the the result of experiments by Skeptics' newsletter and pub­ space faring aliens. Your child­ lished in an Australian news­ hood ills will not be cured by paper, and we and many others quartz crystals, vibrations given think it deserves a still wider off by colored threads, or appeals audience. You might consider to supernatural entities. giving it to your own children The world you will live in is or grandchildren: a strange, complex place, full of contradictions. You will encoun­ ter superstition, fear, ideologies, At the moment you were born hatred, dogmas, and many other the solar system had a unique unpleasant things. You will also configuration. This fact is encounter knowledge, love, joy, unlikely to have any effect on beauty, and lots and lots of your future life. Your name people. I hope that you will be contains a certain selection of skeptical, because skepticism letters. Apart from being a label insulates you from all those you will wear for life, there is things that are the fruits of no hidden, esoteric significance unreason. to the letters that make up your I will do everything I can to name. make it that way for you, and You will live on a planet that why not? That's what grand­ is several billion years old and in fathers are for. • you aren't tooling down Wall Street "The Psychic Forecaster." This brings in your Rolls Royce instead of nickel- you the financial wisdom of psychics and-diming it in scruffy carnivals and and astrologers; two full years for only night clubs?" $58, including your Personal Financial Their usual answer is "We don't use Bio-Rhythm Chart, so that "for each our gifts for personal enrichment." month of the year, you'll have charted (Joan Quigley's $3,000-a-month three distinct recurring cycles: your retainer from the Reagan White physical, emotional, and intellectual House for astrological services may cycles." not qualify as "personal enrichment" The sales pitch includes a sample but it surely buys a lot of beans.) of psychic forecasting, predicting that: This denial of avarice among prog- (1) President Gorbachev will be ousted nosticators may be wearing a little from power . . . ; (2) the S&L crisis thin. A recent day's mail brought a will intensify . . . ; (3) another major pitch for a new investment service, air disaster is looming . . .; (4) a well-

122 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 known personality in Washington, International Herald Tribune. How did D.C., is dying of AIDS ...; (5) political they fare? revolution—possible war—will come • Prediction: The final match will to a southern African country; and be between Italy and Argentina. Some several more predictions that sound seers saw Italy winning. Wrong on very much as though their writer has both predictions. When Argentina been reading the daily newspapers. met Italy in the semi-finals, Argentina This monthly revelation is pub­ won. And Italy never made it to the lished by Strategic Communications, final. Notice that this was considered Ltd., of Orlando, Florida, which the most probable situation by soccer modestly describes itself as "one of the analysts; the host country against the nation's largest investment publishing previous World Cup winner is a likely companies." Somehow this major final according to the bookmakers. publisher has escaped the notice of the • Prediction: Cameroon and the editors of the 1990 Gale's Directory of United Arab Emirates will do unex­ Publishers (formerly Ayer's Directory), pectedly well. Cameroon did in fact which lists even the tiniest publisher win against Argentina in their first who seeks mailing privileges. match. This was unexpected. How­ Without the aid of psychic powers ever, both Cameroon and the UAE or astrological charts, one can venture were eliminated early in the contest, a prediction: This new publication will be successful. It will provide the information and assurance for which a certain fraction of the American people has been waiting. Its record may even be no worse than that of some current market newsletters that lack the benefit of occult insights.

—Paul B. Horton

Paul Horton lives in Sun City, Arizona.

Wizards, Clairvoyants See Unclearly, J Boot Soccer Predictions

hree months before the Soccer World Cup, wizards, astrologers, Tand clairvoyants from the Italian Wizards Association gathering in Milan, Italy, predicted some of the results. Their predictions were reported by the Associated Press and published in the April 11, 1990,

Winter 1991 feats than any other medium in history, and whose claims often rest upon photographic evidence, must be seriously re-evaluated. None of the more startling phenomena ever occurred in the presence of any of the non-Brazilians who attended a Mira­ belli seance. Evidence for the mate­ rialization of dead bodies seems to rest largely upon photographs and the claims of Mirabelli's closest associates.

—Gordon Stein

Hoaxer Claims APA Intends to 'Explain J The Unexplainable't first glance, it seemed a bomb- ^^shell: news that the American / \ Psychological Association had founded a new committee for para­ Copies of the Mirabelli photograph, such psychology whose mission would be as this one, make it seem he is levitating, to "explain the unexplainable." There but an examination of an original print was the press release, printed on APA shows that he is standing on a ladder that was removed from the photo by chemical stationery, dated July 20, 1990, and retouching. marked "For Immediate Dissemina­ tion." (CSICOP headquarters received belli, is far clearer than any previously its copy in the mail on August 8.) But seen. almost immediately it became clear Mirabelli is, in fact, standing upon that this so-called press release was a stepladder. The print clearly shows simply a rather unsophisticated hoax. that a stepladder of some sort has been So much was apparent from the naive removed from the photograph by writing style and the lack of a name chemical retouching to give the illu­ and telephone number of a "contact sion that Mirabelli is floating in the person" at the APA. (Genuine press air. The former presence of the ladder releases always carry the name and can be seen in the wavy pattern telephone number of the organiza­ present between Mirabelli's shoes in tion's spokesperson assigned to the photograph. The pattern of the answer reporters' questions about the flowered wallpaper hides the altera­ subject matter.) tion in reprints of the original. The fact that the fake photo is inscribed by Mirabelli to Besterman also shows that Mirabelli was himself aware of the alteration. A telephone call to the Media This deception means that many of Relations Department at the Amer­ the phenomena of Mirabelli, a medium ican Psychological Association offices who was known as perhaps the one in Washington, D.C., confirmed that who claimed more amazing paranormal the "press release" was indeed a fake.

120 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 and the UAE did extremely poorly some of the best international players; according to all accounts. In fact, the and neither was among the first six fastest goal of the whole World Cup leading scorers. In fact, among the was scored precisely against the UAE first six, none were from Argentina (by Yugoslavia). The Federal Republic or the Netherlands. Since the Nether­ of Germany, the winner, was not even lands never made it very far in the mentioned as "doing well." competition, it is hard to judge how • Prediction: Diego Maradona of Van Basten would have scored had his Argentina and Marco Van Basten of team lasted longer. the Netherlands will be the big stars. These were not the predictions of This also was very likely, since Diego an isolated fortune-teller: they were Maradona was considered by most the result of a consensus among observers to be the best soccer player prominent members of the Italian in the world. In any event, he is Wizards Association. This time their apparently the most highly paid (not luck was well below average. in his country, but in Naples, where he is a member of the local soccer —Claude Benski team). Well, neither of these players did very well according to most Claude Benski is secretary general of commentators. In particular, Mara­ France's Committee for the Investigation dona was not even close to matching of Paranormal Phenomena.

L_J

i^j^L^ ^^3 "^^0 ljiv3p*lrer 1 MASON GRUMNITZ. BELIEVES ME MAY HAVE STUMBLED ON A CLUE TO THE CAUSE OF SPONTANEOUS COMBUSTION.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Make plans now to join us at the 1991 CSICOP Conference Co-sponsored by the University of California at Berkeley Physics Department and hosted by the Bay Area Skeptics at the spectacular Claremont Resort Hotel Berkeley / Oakland Hills, California Friday, Saturday, and Sunday May 3, 4, 5, 1991 Keynote Address "In Search of Our Origins" Donald C. Johanson President, Institute of Human Origins, Berkeley

Friday, May 3

7-30 - 9:00 A.M.: Registration 9:00 - 9:15 A.M.: Opening Remarks — Paul Kurtz, CSICOP Chairman 9:15 A.M. - 12 NOON: CONTROVERSIES IN HYPNOSIS Moderator: Robert A. Baker, professor emeritus of psychology, University of Kentucky, Lexington Nicholas Spanos, professor of psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa Ernest Hilgard, professor of psychology, University of California, Berkeley James Kreskin ("The Amazing Kreskin") 12 NOON - 2:00 P.Mu Lunch Break 2:00 - 5:00 P.Mu Two Concurrent Sessions (1) SUBLIMINAL PSEUDOSCIENCE Moderator. Ray Hyman, professor of psychology, University of Oregon, Eugene Eric Eich, associate professor of psychology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver Anthony Pratkanis, assistant professor of psychology, University of California, Santa Cruz Timothy Moore, professor of psychology, Glendon College, York University, Toronto (Continued on next page.) Friday (continued) (2) PSYCHOLOGY QUACKERY Moderator: Barry Beyerstein, professor of psychology, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, B.C. Loren Pankratz, professor of psychology, Oregon Health Sciences University, Portland Gerald Rosen, professor of psychology and psychiatry, University of Washington, Seattle Carol Tavris, author, lecturer, Department of Psychology, UCLA

5:00 - 8:00 P.M.: Dinner Break 8:00 P.M.: KEYNOTE ADDRESS (Wheeler, Auditorium, University of California, Berkeley) "In Search of Our Origins" Donald C. Johnson, President, Institute of Human Origins and professor of anthropology, Stanford University To be followed by optional trip to Chabot Observatory (reservations limited)

Saturday, May 4

9:00 A.M. - 12 NOON: CATASTROPHISM AND EVOLUTION Moderator: Eugenie Scott, physical anthropologist, executive director, National Center for Science Education Walter Alvarez, professor of geology, University of California, Berkeley Richard Muller, professor of physics, University of California, Berkeley Jere Lipps, professor of integrated biology, University of California at Berkeley

12 NOON - 2:00 P.M.: CSICOP Luncheon (optional) "It Must Be Psychic: The Psychology of the Paranormal" Susan Blackmore, psychologist, University of Bristol, U.K.

2:00 - 5:00 P.M.: Two Concurrent Sessions (1) URBAN LEGENDS Moderator: Robert Hicks, analyst, Department of Clinical Justice Services, Commonwealth of Virginia Jan Brunvand, professor of English, University of Utah Alan Dundes, professor of anthropology, University of California, Berkeley William Ellis, associate professor of English and American Studies, Pennsylvania State University, Hazleton (2) TEACHING CRITICAL THINKING WITH THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Moderator: Lee Nisbet, professor of philosophy, Medaille College Steven Hoffmaster, professor of physics, Gonzaga University Richard Malvin, professor of physiology, University of Michigan School of Medicine Brant Abrahamson, social studies educator, Riverside Brookfield High School, Brookfield, 111. (Continued on next page.) Saturday (continued)

6:00 - 7:00 P.M.: Pre-Banquet Social Hour (cash bar)

7:00 - 10:00 P.M.: AWARDS BANQUET (optional) Awards Presentation: Paul Kurtz, CSICOP Chairman Donald C. Johanson, Eugenie Scott, and Susan Blackmore

Sunday, May 5

9:00 A.M. - 12 NOON: Skeptics Groups Discussion Additional Sunday events to be announced. Cooperating organizations: East Bay Skeptics Society and Berkeley Student Skeptics REGISTRATION FORM Preregistration is advised. (U.C. Berkeley students and faculty, no charge. Other students, 25 and under, with I.D., $25.00.) (Registration fee does not include meals or accommodations.) Mail to: 1991 CSICOP Conference, P.O. Box 229, Buffalo, New York 14215 • YES, I (we) plan to attend the 1991 CSICOP Conference. • $125 registration for person(s), includes Keynote Address. $ • $22.50 Saturday Luncheon for person(s) $ • $39 Saturday Awards Banquet for person(s) $ • $10 Keynote Address (this fee is for nonregistrants only) for person(s) $ • Will require bus transportation to Keynote Address. • $5 chartered bus transportation trip to Chabot Observatory for person(s). (Reservations limited.) $ Total $ D Charge my • VISA D MasterCard D Check enclosed (Amt.) $ Acct. # Exp D No, I will not be able to attend the conference, but please accept my contribution (tax-deductible) of $ to help cover the costs of this and future CSICOP special events. Note: The CSICOP Hospitality Room on the lobby floor of the hotel will be open at 5:00 P.M. on Thursday, May 2 (cash bar 7:30 to 11:00 P.M.). This room will be available to registrants for the duration of the conference. ACCOMMODATIONS: Claremont Resort and Tennis Club, Ashby &. Domingo Avenues, Oakland. Telephone 415-843-3000. Single $99, double $99. (The hotel will arrange shared doubles upon request.) Facilities include an olympic-sized heated swimming pool, whirlpool spa, saunas, jogging course, ten day/night tennis courts (complimentary to guests), and four restaurants and a terrace bar. (Registrants will be provided with list of other nearby restaurants.) For more information, call or write to Mary Rose Hays at the CSICOP, Box 229, Buffalo, New York 14215 / Telephone: 71f>834-3222. Notes of a Fringe-Watcher

MARTIN GARDNER

Tipler s Omega 0 Point Theory

rank Tipler is a professor of theory assumes that thinking is a mathematical physics at Tulane purely physical process of the brain, University, New Orleans. He has and that personality dies with the F brain. Nevertheless, I show that the edited a book of papers on relativity and coauthored The Anthropic Cosmo- Omega Point Theory suggests a future universal resurrection of the logical Principle, a 706-page work dead very similar to the one pre­ published by Oxford University Press dicted in the Judeo-Christian- in 1986. Among scientists he is best Islamic tradition. The notions of known for his vigorous opposition to "grace" and the "beatific vision" the hopes of Carl Sagan and others appear naturally in the model. that intelligent life flourishes else­ where than on earth. If our universe is "open" it will In recent years Tipler has been expand forever. Eventually it will ex­ writing papers about what he calls his pire from the cold and all life will end. Omega Point Theory (OPT), research Tipler assumes that the universe is on which has been partly supported "closed" in the sense that space-time by the National Science Foundation. is positively curved by vast amounts Here is his abstract of "The Omega of dark (invisible) matter. All closed Point as Eschaton," a paper in Zygon universes will stop expanding and go (vol. 24, June 1989): the other way toward a big crunch. In most cases, this, too, would wipe I present an outline of the Omega out all life and all "memory" of the Point Theory, which is a model for past. But there are special classes of an omnipresent, omniscient, omnip­ closed universes (too technical to go otent, evolving, personal God who into here) in which the recollapse leads is both transcendent to spacetime to a special type of "crunch" that Tipler and immanent in it, and who exists calls the Omega Point, borrowing the necessarily. The model is a falsifi- term from the unorthodox French able physical theory deriving its key paleontologist Teilhard de Chardin. At concepts not from any religious the Omega Point the temporal tradition but from modern physical becomes eternal, and the entire cos­ cosmology and computer science; from scientific materialism rather mos is "engulfed" by total information than revelation. Four testable pre­ about the universe's history. dictions of the model are given. The This kind of universe, Tipler

128 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 |VAM__'-»

argues, necessarily exists. According to From our perspective, God is "forever what he calls the Final Anthropic growing in knowledge and power." Principle, it is capable of sustaining life From the Omega Point's perspective, indefinitely. God, or the Omega God is the great I AM, "forever Point—for Tipler the terms have the complete and unchanging." same meaning—is a "singularity" of space and time, in a region that But all timelike and lightlike curves traditional religions call "eternity." converge upon the Omega Point. In When this stage is reached, the uni­ particular, all the light rays from all verse will have become a "Person" who the people who died a thousand experiences all history in one blinding years ago, from all the people now "now." Such a God will be omnipresent living, and from all the people who in occupying every part of the uni­ will be living a thousand years from verse, omniscient in knowing all that now, will intersect there. The light rays from those people who died a can be known, and omnipotent in being thousand years ago are not lost able to do all that can be done. forever; rather, these rays will be Tipler prides himself on being an intercepted by the Omega Point. To atheist in the sense that he is not a put it another way, these rays will theist, nor does he believe that there be intercepted and intercepted again is any experimental evidence for his by the living beings who have Omega Point god. Tipler has in effect engulfed the physical universe near the Omega Point. All the informa­ joined the ranks of distinguished tion which can be extracted from "process theologians"—Schelling, these rays will be extracted at the Alexander, Whitehead, Bergson, instant of the Omega Point, who Hartshorne, and others—who see will therefore experience the whole God as evolving as the universe of time simultaneously just as we evolves. Not until the end of history, experience simultaneously the at the Omega Point, does everything Andromeda Galaxy and a person in become a Personal Ultimate Reality. the room with us.

Winter 1991 129 Tipler is a materialist in the sense ters. Organic life will perish. Compu­ that he follows Aristotle in regarding ters will be the new life forms. Because the "soul" as the body's "form"—the at the Omega Point all their programs, pattern of molecules in a brain. We as well as all our programs, are are computers made of organic mat­ preserved, the Omega Point will ter. Our "self" is no more than an resurrect each of us provided it has enormously complex computer pro­ sufficient "grace" to do so. "We shall, gram. When we die we are truly dead, so to speak, live again in the mind of but our program is not lost. The God." As Tipler puts it in a later paper, Omega Point is capable of "resurrect­ "We will be granted eternal life ing" every person who ever lived because it is probable that the Omega simply by giving that person's pattern Point loves us!" a new, transcendent body. Here Tipler adopts the view known as "conditional I should emphasize that this sim­ immortality" or "soul sleeping." It was ulation of people that have lived in probably the view of St. Paul, and has the past need not be limited to just been upheld by thinkers as diverse as repeating the past. Once a simula­ tion of a person and his or her world Karl Barth and John Milton, as well has been formed in a computer of as by such modern Christian sects as sufficient capacity, the simulated the Seventh-Day Adventists and Jeho­ person can be allowed to develop vah's Witnesses. further—to think and feel things Because the brain's pattern derives that the long-dead original person from a set of discrete genes, and being simulated never felt and thought. It is not even necessary for because there are only a finite number any of the past to be repeated. The of possible brain states, not only can Omega Point could simply begin the God recreate all persons who ever simulation with the brain memory lived, but also all who could have lived. of the dead person as it was at the Tipler finds this possibility enhanced instant of death (or, say, ten years by the Many Worlds Interpretation of before or twenty minutes before) quantum mechanics. In this view, implanted in the simulated body of which Tipler strongly favors, the the dead person, the body being as universe is constantly branching into it was at age twenty (or any other myriads of different histories in which age). This body and memory collec­ tion could be set in any simulated all logically possible events occur and background environment the all logically possible universes and life Omega Point wished: a simulated forms exist. "Just as there is an infinity world indistinguishable from the of actual paths which have led to the long-extinct society and physical present state, so there is an infinity universe of the revived dead person; of really existing futures which evolve or even a world that never existed, from the present state." but one as close as logically possible to the ideal fantasy world of the Because the universe gets hotter as resurrected dead person. Further­ it nears the Omega Point, where more, all possible combinations of temperature goes to infinity, it will resurrected dead can be placed in the reach a stage at which life as we know same simulation and allowed to it cannot survive. Our heirs, there­ interact. For example, the reader fore, will have to be a markedly could be placed in a simulation with different species. Tipler believes that all of his or her ancestors and within a century, "certainly within a descendants, each at whatever age thousand years," we will be able to (physical and mental, separately) transfer our mind patterns to compu- the Omega Point pleases. The

130 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Omega Point itself could interact— which the simulated body found speak, for instance—with His/Her itself. In the words of Tertuilian, the simulated creatures, who could simulated body would be ". . . this learn about Him/Her, about the flesh, suffused with blood, built up world outside the simulation, and with bones, interwoven with about other simulations, from Him/ nerves, entwined with veins [a Her. flesh] which ... [is]... undoubtedly The simulated body could be one human." that has been vastly improved over the one we currently have; the laws of the simulated world could be In a later, unpublished paper, modified to prevent a second phys­ "Physics Near the Final State: God and ical death. Borrowing the terminol­ the Resurrection of the Dead to ogy of Paul, we can call the Eternal Life," Tipler defends the simulated, improved and undying possible existence of "realms that can body a "spiritual body," for it will be accurately described as Heaven and be of the same "stuff" as the human Purgatory." (Only the Omega Point mind now is: a "thought inside a knows if there is a Hell.) "A Chris­ mind" (in Aristotelian language, "a tology can be developed in the Omega form inside a form"; in computer Point Theory, but it does not appear language, a "virtual machine inside a machine"). The spiritual body is naturally in the model, and in any case thus just the present body (with the Christology depends on some improvements!) at a higher level of unlikely possibilities in quantum implementation. With this phras­ cosmology." ing, Paul's description is completely Will there be sex in heaven? In the accurate: "So also is the resurrection paper just cited, Tipler says this of the dead. It is sown in corruption- question is often asked by his stu­ it is raised in incorruption: It is sown in dishonor; it is raised in glory; it dents. The answer, he assures us, is is sown in weakness; it is raised in yes. "Sex will be available to those who power: It is sown a natural body; wish it. ... A man like Aquinas who it is raised a spiritual body" (1 Cor. had no interest in sex will not experi­ 15:42-44). Only as a spiritual body, ence it, but people who desire it will." only as a computer simulation, is However, all the difficulties that arise resurrection possible without a in our sex life now "will not exist for second death: our current bodies, the resurrected humans, since the implemented in matter, could not Omega Point can match people: the possibly survive the extreme heat Omega Point should be able to cal­ near the final singularity. Again, Paul's words are descriptive: ". . . culate which amongst all possible flesh and blood cannot inherit the people would be the best mate for a kingdom of God" (1 Cor. 15:50). given person." Nevertheless, it is appropriate to regard computer simulation resur­ To put it more dramatically (for un­ rection as being a "resurrection of married males), it would be possible the flesh" (in the words of the for each male to be matched not Apostles' Creed). For a simulated merely with the most beautiful person would observe herself to be woman in the world, not merely as real, and as having a body as solid with the most beautiful woman who as the body we currently observe has ever lived, but to be matched ourselves to have. There would be with the most beautiful woman nothing "ghostly" about the simu­ whose existence is logically possible! lated body, and nothing insubstan­ Because of the mutability of the ap­ tial about the simulated world in pearance of the resurrection body,

Winter 1991 131 it would be easy to ensure that said space-time curvature. If it turns out male is also the most handsome (or not to be closed, then the OPT will desirable) man to this most beau­ of course be falsified. So far, he tiful woman (provided the man has concedes, because there is as yet no spent sufficient time in Purgatory confirming evidence for the OPT "it to correct personality defects). is premature to accept it." Although Jesus, the Bible, the As for "elbow room" in heaven, Tipler Koran, and all other forms of reve­ speculates: lation play no role in the OPT, Tipler (as we have seen) likes to invoke It would be possible for the Paul—Saint Paul!—as a supporter of Omega Point to simulate an his vision. "The key concepts of the entire visible universe for the personal use of each and every Judeo-Christian-Islamic traditions," resurrected human! ("In my he writes, "are now scientific con­ Father's house are many man­ cepts." Here is how Tipler concludes sions. . . ." The required com­ his 1989 paper: puter capacity is not measurably greater than that required to The hope of eternal worldly simulate all possible visible uni­ 1 123 progress and the hope of indi­ verses (10 " ). Each private vidual survival beyond the grave visible universe could also be 10 turn out to be the same. Far from simulated to contain 10 sepa­ being polar opposites, these two rate planet Earths, each a copy hopes require each other; we of the present Earth, or the Earth cannot have one without the as it was at a different time in 20 other. The Omega Point is truly the past. (There are about 10 the God of Hope: "O death, stars in the visible universe, so 10 where is thy sting? O grave, replacing a mere 10 solar sys­ where is thy victory?" (1 Cor. tems in a visible universe would 15:55) be a minor modification.) This is more Earths than a single human could explore before exhausting I leave it to readers to decide his/her memory storage capacity whether they should opt for OPT as of 1015 bits, to say nothing of the a new scientific religion superior to memories stored while visiting Scientology—one destined to elevate other humans in their private Tipler to the rank of a prophet greater universes. than L. Ron Hubbard—or opt for the view that OPT is a wild fantasy Thus does Tipler construct a color­ generated by too much reading of ful eschatology that he believes is science fiction. based entirely on science. Theology has become a branch of physics. Tipler Martin Gardner's most recent book is The cites several ways his theory can be New Ambidextrous Universe: Sym­ empirically tested, starring with ob­ metry and Asymmetry, from Mirror servations to determine the universe's Reflections to Superstrings.

132 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 CSICOP1990 Washington, D.C. Conference on Audio Cassettes "Critical Thinking and Scientific Literacy" Complete Conference, Sessions l-VIII, $79.95, a saving of $15.25 SESSION I: Scientific Literacy, with Paul Kurtz, Michael Zimmerman, John Paulos, Robert Crease (2 cassettes, $11.90) SESSION II: Critical Thinking in Public Education, with Paul MacCready, Anton Lawson, Richard Schrock, Steven Hoffmaster. (2 cassettes, $11.90) SESSION III: (1) Public Policy and the Paranormal, with Ray Hyman. (2) Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About UFOs But Were Afraid to Ask, with Philip J. Klass (3 cassettes, $17.85). SESSION IV: Keynote Address by Gerard Piel (1 cassette, $5.95) SESSION V: Astronomy and Pseudoscience, with Philip lanna, Andrew Fraknoi, David Morrison, Bernard Leikind (2 cassettes, $11.90) SESSION VI: Psychic Phenomena and the Laws of Physics, with James Alcock, Milton Rothman, Robert Jahn, and Victor Stenger (3 cassettes, $17.85) SESSION VII: Animal Rights and Scientific Research, with Lee Nisbet, Randall Lockwood, Larry Horton, Franklin Loew, Donald J. Barnes, and Richard Malvin (2 cassettes, $11.90) SESSION VIII: Awards Banquet, with Paul Kurtz, Richard Berendzen, Bill Nye the "Science Guy," James Randi, Penn & Teller (2 cassettes, $11.90) ORDER FORM 1990 CSICOP Conference in Washington, D.C. D SESSION I $11.90 D SESSION IV $5.95 D SESSION VII $11.90 D SESSION II $11.90 • SESSION V $11.90 • SESSION VIII $11.90 D SESSION III $17.85 D SESSION VI $17.85 (When ordering individual sessions, please add $1.50 for 1st class postage and handling for each session, or $3.75 for 3 or more.) • Please send the complete set for $79.95 + $3.75 for 1st class p&h. Total $83.70. Total $

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CSICOP • Box 229 • Buffalo, NY 14215-0229 Or call toll free 800-634-1610. In New York State call 716-634-3222. CENTER FOR INQUIRY INSTITUTE Summer Session 1991 — Wed.-Sun., June 19-23 at the State University of New York at Buffalo The Center for Inquiry Institute is jointly supported by CSICOP and CODESH, two scientific and educational nonprofit organizations. The Institute offers courses and curricula to develop knowledge arid appreciation of skepticism, rationalism, free thought, and scientific modes of inquiry. The Summer session will offer three courses: Case Studies in the Paranormal (CSICOP), Evolution vs. Creationism (CSICOP-CODESH), and Humanist Ethics (CODESH). Participants can register for one course ($125), two courses ($225), or three courses ($300). Accommodations, meals, and textbooks are not included. Wednesday, June 19 7:00-10:00 P.M.: Reception Thursday, June 20 9:00 A.M.-12:00 NOON: Humanist Ethics Paul Kurtz, professor of philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo Marvin Kohl, professor of philosophy, State University of New York College at Fredonia Tim Madigan, executive editor, FREE INQUIRY 12 NOON-1:00 P.M.: Luncheon Break 1:00-4:00 P.M.: Evolution vs. Creationism Eugenie Scott, physical anthropologist, executive director, National Center for Science Education H. James Birx, professor of anthropology, Canisius College 4:30-7:30 P.M.: Case Studies in the Paranormal James Randi, author, magician Steve Shaw, magician Barry Karr, executive director of CSICOP 7:30-10:00 P.M.: Dinner and Open Forum Friday, June 21 Courses continue; repeat of Thursday schedule. Saturday, June 22 8:30-10:00 A.M.: Humanist Ethics (continued) 10:00-11:30 A.M.: Evolution vs. Creationism (continued) 11:30A.M.-1:00 P.M.: Case Studies in the Paranormal (continued) 1:00-10:00 P.M.: Canadian trip (optional) A visit to Niagara Falls and to the Shaw Festival Theatre at Niagara-on- the-Lake, Ontario, Canada Sunday, June 23 9:00A.M.-12 NOON: Humanist Ethics (continued) 12 NOON-1:00 P.M.: Luncheon 1:00-4:00 P.M.: Evolution vs. Creationism (continued) 4:30-7:30 P.M.: Case Studies in the Paranormal (continued) 7:30-10:00 P.M.: Dinner and entertainment For registration form and accommodations information, contact Ranjit Sandhu, CSICOP, Box 229, Buffalo, NY 14215, 716-834-3222. Psychic Vibrations

ROBERT SHEAFFER

A great deal has been happening in flying saucer, apparently forgotten, ^^Gulf Breeze, Florida, the now- hidden away under some insulation in t \ undisputed UFO capital of the the garage attic. Using this model, world, since it was last mentioned in news photographers were able to this column (Summer 1989:363). "Mr. create numerous photos of UFOs Ed," the once-anonymous photog­ looking remarkably like those that rapher around whom alien beings and thrust Ed Walters into the limelight. their craft seemed to swarm, has now Walters, of course, denies all knowl­ surfaced as building contractor Ed edge of the model, even though paper Walters, who with his wife, Frances, wrapped around it contains part of a is coauthor of a successful book, The house plan he himself drew up. He Gulf Breeze Sightings: The Most claims that particular plan was not Astounding Multiple Sightings of UFOs drawn up until after he vacated the in U.S. History. Despite its title, the residence, but Gulf Breeze city offi­ book seems to have been singularly cials say the plans are two years older unsuccessful in convincing anyone of than Ed says they are. Walters sug­ the authenticity of Walters's Polaroid gests that the model was probably saucer photos who wasn't convinced planted in his former residence by already. The book has been attacked some "debunker" who, he insists, "will bitterly by a number of seasoned, do whatever [is] necessary to debunk longtime UFO proponents, many of a case." If so, one would expect a whom are still shaking their heads dastardly debunker to leave the sadly at the way MUFON—the largest incriminating model in a place where surviving UFO group—has uncriti­ it would likely be found, and not so cally promoted Walters's yarns. What­ well concealed that it was not discov­ ever faults the book may have, it was ered until the current resident of the good enough to earn Walters a house undertook to modify the cool­ $200,000 advance, according to news ing system. reports, as well as the sale of TV rights But in a development even more for a planned miniseries that may net potentially damaging to Ed's credibil­ as much as $450,000. ity than the discovery of the model, In spite of this abundance of wealth a Gulf Breeze youth named Tom and fame, life has not been a bed of Smith has confessed that he and two roses for Gulf Breeze's most famous other youths, one of them Ed's son citizen. This past June, the Pensacola Danny Walters, assisted Ed in the News Journal reported that the man production of hoax saucer photos. who now lives in the house Walters Worse yet. Smith has a series of five occupied at the time of the alleged UFO photos taken with his own alien blitz had discovered a model camera to substantiate this collabora-

Winter 1991 135 (of which it has plenty). At its head­ quarters in San Jose, the group operates a decent science museum and an excellent mummy exhibit strangely coexisting with a school of arcane mysticism. It has assets worth some­ where between $11 million and $28 million, but apparently lacks the mystical insight to determine any­ thing approaching an exact figure. Last April a group of disgruntled Rosicrucians obtained a court order ousting the Imperator of that sect, Gary L. Stewart, charging him with embezzling $3.5 million, which they claim he squirreled away in the Republic of Andorra. They further charge that Rosicrucian funds were used to pay for Stewart's divorce from his first wife, as well as for his honeymoon with his second. A lawyer representing Stewart denies these tion. But Walters claims that young allegations. Smith took the UFO photos unas­ sisted and that they are genuine. The Rosicrucian Order claims to Veteran saucerer James Moseley trace its roots back to a group orig­ became outraged when Charles Flan- inating around 1500 B.C. that sup­ nigan, MUFON's Florida State Direc­ posedly possessed the Secrets of tor, ordered him not to talk to any Ancient Egypt. However, little is of these youths until the MUFON known of the group's whereabouts hierarchy had a chance to interview until it surfaced again in New York them first! Moseley charges MUFON City in 1915, which merely demon­ with practicing "damage control" by strates how well its secrets have been its insistence on getting to the youths guarded. These same secrets are today first "in order to plug up any holes available to anyone who discovers a in their stories." Nonetheless, Mose­ Rosicrucian ad in a magazine and forks ley is still impressed by Ed Walters's over $135 a year. Exactly what apparent sincerity and is not con­ insights the initiate receives in vinced that the Gulf Breeze UFO exchange for that sum is so secret that photos were faked. the Rosicrucians have never revealed them. However, owing to the broth­ * * * erhood's laxity in guarding its deep mysteries, it has been learned that You've probably seen the Rosicru- students of Rosicrucian science some­ cians' ads offering to help you unlock times receive little experiment kits, the Secrets of the Pyramids and the not unlike the ones sold in toy stores, deep Mysteries of the Cosmos. But a allowing them to experience for July 1 story in the San Jose Mercury themselves the wonders of magne­ News suggests that the Rosicrucian tism, electricity, and other secrets sect seems to be unable to comprehend known to the wise men of Ancient the puzzle of its own financial assets Egypt. •

136 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. IS SPECIAL REPORT / GALLUP POLL Belief in Paranormal Phenomena Among Adult Americans c= GEORGE H. GALLUP, JR.. and FRANK NEWPORT

Americans express a belief in the existence Z^Xof paranormal, psychic, ghostly, and I \ otherworldly experiences and dimen­ sions to a surprising degree. These beliefs, including many that contradict more traditional religions, are almost as common among Amer­ icans who are deeply religious in a traditional sense as in those who are not. Also, according to a new Gallup Mirror of America survey, a majority of Americans are A Gallup national unaware of the New Age movement, and those survey shows that who are aware have a more negative than positive view of its impact on American religion paranormal beliefs and society. are widespread. Yet The poll of 1,236 adults conducted in June belief in astrology 1990 reveals that: • One of every four Americans believe in and the reality of ghosts. UFOs has lessened, • One of every four Americans believe they superstitions are have had a telepathic experience in which they communicated with another person without widely disbelieved, using the traditional five senses. and the New Age • One in six Americans have felt they have movement is been in touch with someone who had died. • One in ten claim to have seen or been in unadmired. the presence of a ghost. • More than half believe in the Devil, and one in ten claim to have talked to the Devil. • One in seven say they have personally seen a UFO (unidentified flying object). • Three in four at least occasionally read their horoscopes in a newspaper, and one in four say they believe in the tenets of astrology.

Winter 1991 137 For each of the following items 1 am going to read you, please tell me whether it is something you believe in, something you're not sure about, or something you don't believe in.

Not Do not Believe sure believe % % % In dejA vu, or the feeling that you have been somewhere or done something before 55 13 32 In the Devil 55 8 37 In ESP, or extrasensory perception 49 22 29 That people on this Earth are sometimes possessed by the Devil 49 16 35 In psychic or spiritual healing or the power of the human mind to heal the body 46 20 34 In telepathy, or communication between minds without using the traditional five senses 36 25 39 That houses can be haunted 29 17 54 That extraterrestrial beings have visited Earth at some time in the past 27 32 41 In clairvoyance, or the power of the mind to know the past and predict the future 26 23 51 In astrology, or that the position of the stars and planets can affect people's lives 25 22 54 In ghosts, or that spirits of dead people can come back in certain places and situations 25 19 56 In reincarnation, that is, the rebirth of the soul in a new body after death 21 22 57 That people can hear from or communicate mentally with someone who has died 18 20 62 In telekinesis, or the ability of the mind to move or bend objects using just mental energy 17 24 59 In witches 14 8 78 In channeling, or allowing a "spirit being" to temporarily assume control of a human body during a trance 11 22 67 That pyramids have a special healing power 7 26 67 That rock crystals have a special healing power 4 20 76

Americans have always been fas­ mental experiences as telepathy, clair­ cinated by the idea that there is some­ voyance, precognition, deja vu, tele­ thing beyond the traditional world of kinesis, and the ability of the mind to experience. These "out of the normal" control and heal the physical body. experiences can involve many differ­ Other "out of the normal" experi­ ent types of occurrences. Some are ences involve the belief that our lives called "psychic" phenomena or, as can be controlled by superstitious author Bernard Gittelson describes occurrences or, in the case of believers them, "anything that appears to over­ in astrology, by the positions of step the confines of known physical planets and stars. Still others involve laws." These include such unusual the mysterious realm of death—and

138 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 19? <*

} / what happens to humans when they Who are these believers in the die; whether or not they return in paranormal? various forms and shapes, and They tend to be baby-boomers and whether or not we can communicate the middle-aged, particularly those with them. And there is the unknown between the ages of 30 and 49. Belief beyond our planet, including UFOs, in "paranormal" experiences cuts visits by extraterrestrials, and the across conventional religious mea­ possibility of life on other planets. sures: almost as many deeply religious All of these types of beliefs and Americans as those who are not occurrences contradict our physical religious profess belief in and experi­ senses and what is known "rationally." ence with the paranormal. Those who follow psychic and para­ normal phenomena claim that they are occurring all around us. As Gittelson Paranormal Beliefs—Trend says in his book Intangible Evidence, (Percent who believe in each item) "Evidence of seemingly paranormal goings-on come in from all over— 1978 1990 from many different fields, from % % many different belief systems, and ESP 51 49 from all corners of the world." Devils 39 55 The results of the survey seem to Deja vu 30 55 support the fact that Americans are Astrology 29 25 very much aware of this type of Clairvoyance 24 26 evidence. All in all, only 7 percent of Ghosts 11 25 Americans deny believing in any of a Witches 10 14 list of 18 paranormal experiences asked by Gallup. Almost one-half say they believe in five or more. And, even Psychic Experiences though actual experience is less frequent than belief, three of four The idea that our minds alone— have experienced at least one such without using the traditional five occurrence, with about half claiming senses—can perform extraordinary experience with more than three. feats or are privy to abilities that we

Winter 1991 139 have barely begun to tap has fas­ accumulate that suggest the mind can cinated us for many years. Scientists in fact have a major influence on the don't claim to understand fully how body and its processes. the brain works, and therefore most About one-half of Americans do not rigorously rule out the idea that polled by Gallup (46 percent) believe there are parts of it that we don't in this spiritual or psychic power, routinely use or activate. although only one-quarter (25 per­ The new Gallup survey shows that cent) claim to have actually expe­ a good number of Americans believe rienced a situation in which they they are already activating their healed their body by mental processes psychic awareness. By far the most alone. common such psychic phenomenon is The idea of mental communication the feeling of deja vu, that a person between two people, living or dead, has been somewhere or done some­ without using the traditional five thing before. [Editor's note: Most senses of sight, hearing, smell, touch, psychologists do not consider deja vu or taste is another form of psychic a "psychic" or paranormal phenom­ phenomenon that has intrigued us enon.] Some have attempted to through the centuries. Tales abound explain this occurrence as a biological of mothers who rush across town one in which brain synapses undergo because they sense their baby is in a brief delay so that we actually sense need, or of lovers who somehow know the same event twice. Others feel that their partner is in danger, or those deja vu is evidence of either reincar­ who know who is on the phone before nation or some form of reliving lives. they pick it up. Whatever the explanation—if any—it Carl Shrager, editor of American is a sensation known to millions. More Psychic magazine, says, "Telepathy is than one-half of all Americans (57 really our sixth sense, the shadow percent) claim to have experienced sense that people accept to varying deja vu. degrees. Knowing who's on the phone Feelings of deja vu are most com­ when it rings is the most common mon among the young. It is almost everyday telepathic experience." twice as likely to have occurred among More than a third (36 percent) of Americans 18 to 29 years of age as Americans say they believe in telep­ among Americans over 50. It also is athy, or communicating with others reported more often among those without using the five senses. One of living on the West Coast and appar­ four (25 percent) claim to have actually ently reflects socioeconomic status, in had a telepathic experience. that it is more likely to be reported Almost one of every five Amer­ by college graduates and those with icans say they believe it is possible higher incomes than the less well to communicate with the dead, and educated and those with lower 17 percent say they have felt in incomes. touch with someone who has already Another very common psychic died. belief among Americans is that the Belief in clairvoyance, or the ability mind can actually participate in heal­ to forecast the future, is reported by ing the body. This belief is now about one in four Americans. Not all becoming more common in the of these people put their money where orthodox medical community as anec­ their mouth is, however. Only about dotal evidence and the experiences 14 percent of them say that they have from other cultures and religions actually consulted a fortune-teller or

140 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Now, as 1 read another list, I want you to tell me whether or not you have ever had each of these types of experiences. First, have you ever:

No Yes No opinion % % % Had the feeling of deja vu and felt you had been somewhere or done something before 56 42 2 Felt that you were in touch with or getting a message from someone who was far away without using the traditional five senses 25 74 1 Been able to heal your body using the power of your mind without traditional medicine 25 72 3 Felt that you were in touch with someone who has already died 17 82 1 Consulted a fortune-teller or psychic 14 85 1 Been in a house you felt was haunted 14 85 1 Felt you were talking to or being talked to by the Devil 10 89 1 Seen or been in the presence of a ghost 9 90 1 Felt that you were here on Earth in a previous life or existence in another body 8 90 2 F"ersonally seen someone moving or bending an object using just mental energy 7 92 1 Consulted an astrologer 6 93 1 Bought or used a rock crystal for its special healing powers 3 96 1 Been personally involved in channeling, by participating in a trance during which a "spirit-being" temporarily assumed control of your body 2 97 1 Bought or used a pyramid for its special healing powers 1 98 1

psychic. lives. Those who believe in astrology A belief in telekinesis—the ability feel that the cosmic forces behind the of the mind to move or change positions of planets and stars are physical objects—is not as widespread. determining factors in what happens Only about 17 percent think it is in our daily lives ("The horoscope is possible—with a smaller 7 percent a mandala, a symbol of the personal saying they have actually witnessed imprint of the quality of energy telekinesis. operable in the universe at the time of birth," according to one New York Superstitions and Astrology City astrologer). Superstitious behavior and astrol­ Superstitious people assume that such ogy are probably the most commonly everyday events or occurrences as a talked-about aspects of paranormal or black cat crossing one's path and the "out of the ordinary" phenomena in breaking of a mirror can affect their American society. Yet, the new Gallup

Winter 1991 141 Poll shows that, perhaps surprisingly, belief in these phenomena is no more Some people are superstitiousand prevalent than belief in other, seem­ try to behave in such a way as to ingly more esoteric experiences mea­ avoid bad luck or "jinxing" them­ sured, such as telepathy and sightings selves, and others are not. How of UFOs. superstitious are you? Would you Fewer than one out of five Amer­ say you are: icans (18 percent) admits to being very % or somewhat superstitious. Another Very superstitious 3 one in four claims to be "not very" Somewhat superstitious 15 superstitious, with over one-half—56 Not very superstitious 26 percent—saying that they are not at Not at all superstitious 56 all superstitious. No opinion It may be that age and experience serve to diminish superstitious behav­ 100 ior. The most superstitious Americans 'Less than 0.5% are those under 30 years of age, of whom 28 percent say they are very And what one or two superstitions or somewhat superstitious. Catholics affect you most? are slightly more superstitious than % Protestants, blacks are more supersti­ Black cat crossing path 14 tious than whites, and, in general, Walking under a ladder 12 there is a tendency among those who Numbers/Friday 13th/Bad things are more religious to claim they are happening in threes 9 the least superstitious. Breaking a mirror 5 The most common American Wearing a special or lucky superstition is the fear of bad luck clothing/dress in a certain when a black cat crosses one's path. order/avoidsome colors 2 The top six superstitions, as reported Speaking ill or good about a person to Gallup: or event makes it happen 2 • A black cat crossing one's path (mentioned by 14 percent of those Picking up pennies/coins who said they were at least a little Following horoscope superstitious). Evil/the devil • Walking under a ladder (12 Knocking on wood percent). Telepathy/ESP • Friday the 13th, or things hap­ Other 11 pening in threes (9 percent). None 4 • Breaking a mirror (5 percent). No opinion 52 • Attempting to wear certain types Note: Totals add to more than 100% due of clothing or avoiding certain types to multiple responses. to obtain good luck (2 percent). • Believing that speaking or think­ impact on one's daily life. This is down ing ill or good about an event or person slightly from Gallup's 1978 measure will make something happen (2 of belief in astrology. One in four percent). Americans also regularly read their About one in four Americans say horoscopes (26 percent read it at least they believe in the basic premises of once a week or more), about the same astrology—that the positioning of as astrology-column measures in 1975 stars and planets can have some and 1988.

142 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Life After Death Do you ever read your horoscope in a newspaper or magazine, or not? What happens when we die? Since the (If Yes:) Do you read it every day, dawn of humanity, this question has a couple of times each week, once been of tremendous importance to a week, once a month, or just every humans focusing on their own mor­ once in a while? tality. Some psychiatrists speculate that dealing with death is the central % psychological force in our lives. Yes, every day 10 Anthropologists and sociologists theo­ Yes, a couple of times each week 10 rize that dealing with death is the Yes, once a week 6 common motif among almost all Yes, once a month 5 religions studied across cultures and Yes, just every once in a while 43 historical time periods. No 26 No opinion 1 One thing is clear from Gallup Poll 110 data: relatively few Americans want to admit that it is all over when death occurs. More than 70 percent believe 'Less than 0.5% in life after death—a number which is now only slightly less than the Do you happen to read any astrology percent found by Gallup in repeated column regularly? measurements since World War II. If there is life after death, what 1988* 1975 form does it take? Of course there are % % the traditional concepts of heaven and Yes 25 23 hell—and past Gallup Polls show No 71 77 that seven out of ten believe in No opinion 4 0 heaven, and about half believe in hell. 100 100 But a good number of Americans 'Note.- Sample size is 500. believe that there may be less con­ ventional things that happen to us when we die. One out of five Amer­ Women are slightly more likely to icans (21 percent) believe in reincar­ read horoscopes than men, older nation—the "rebirth of the soul in a people are more likely than the young, new body after death"—a concept and those with less education are more significantly different from the tradi­ likely than those with college degrees. tional life-after-death beliefs that Belief in astrology is only slightly less form the central component of main­ common among churchgoers, evan­ stream Protestant and Catholic theol­ gelicals, and those to whom religion ogy in this country. is very important in their lives than Despite this, belief in reincarna­ it is among nonbelievers. tion cuts across all of Gallup's tradi­ Nonetheless, there must be some tional religious measures: it is believed passing fascination with astrology in by 24 percent of Catholics, 19 percent even among those who don't profess of Protestants, 21 percent of church to believe in it—the Gallup Poll shows members, 18 percent of those who that 74 percent of Americans admit attend church regularly, and 22 per­ to at least occasionally looking at their cent of all those who are "born- horoscopes. again" Christians. About one in ten

Winter 1991 143 Americans, in fact, go so far as to say UFOs that they themselves feel that they were here on Earth in a previous life Our "normal" frames of reference and or existence in another body. understanding of the world around us What about communicating with would probably undergo the greatest the dead? According to the Gallup disruptions if we ever discover and/ Poll, this type of experience is not or are visited by intelligent life from necessarily out of the question to a planets other than our own. good number of Americans: 17 per­ To about one-half of all Americans, cent feel they have "been in touch with the question is when we come into someone who has already died," and contact with extraterrestrial beings, a total of 18 percent say it is possible not if. Forty-six percent of Americans even if they have not experienced it believe that there are people some­ themselves. what like ourselves living on other Is it possible that after death we planets in the universe." This number come back in a more ghostly or is essentially the same as measured by spiritual form? A surprising one in Gallup in 1973, and thus has appar­ four Americans believes in ghosts— ently not been affected by our increas­ defined as "spirits of the dead who ingly sophisticated exploration of our come back in certain places and in solar system and universe. certain situations." One in ten claims Despite this stability in belief in to have seen or actually been in the intelligent life elsewhere in the uni­ presence of a ghost, and 14 percent verse, the percent of Americans who have been in a house they felt was believe that UFOs are real has haunted. decreased to 47 percent today, down from 57 percent in 1978 and 54 The Devil and Witches percent in 1973. At the same time, the percent of Americans who say they A majority of Americans claim adher­ have seen a UFO is up, to 14 percent ence to a form of a Christian religion, from 9 percent and 11 percent in in which the concepts of heaven and previous years. hell, God and the Devil are central For those who believe they have components. It is therefore not sur­ seen a UFO, the remembrances are prising that Americans maintain a vivid. A 40-year-old woman in New generally persistent belief in the Hampshire, interviewed by Gallup, existence of the Devil. More than one- recalls: "We saw a flashing thing in half of Americans (55 percent) believe the sky on a hot summer night. There in the Devil, a number that has not were quite a few of us who saw it. changed markedly over time. Belief in We called the Boston Globe and appar­ the Devil is strongly prevalent among ently there were quite a few other American Protestants, those who are sightings that night. Of course, "born-again," and those to whom everyone thought we were nuts." religion is very important. Or, as a woman in California re­ About half of Americans go so far counts: "When I was real small, I was as to say that people are sometimes on a trip with my parents. We were possessed by the Devil. out in the country and the car quit Witches don't fare as well. Only 14 and a bright light took off and then percent believe in witches, slightly up the car was able to start again. It was from the 10 percent Gallup measured very strange and we never talked in 1978. about it."

144 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 actually touched the Earth's surface. Have you heard or read about un­ A much smaller percent of Americans identified flying objects—UFOs? (27 percent) feel that aliens have actually touched down and visited 1973 1978 1990 Earth. % % % Yes 95 93 90 No 5 7 10 The New Age 100 100 100 Many of the types of psychic and paranormal phenomena measured Have you, yourself ever seen any­ in the new Gallup Mirror of America thing you thought was a UFO? poll have been associated with the "New Age" movement—a hard-to- 1973 1978 1990 define conglomeration of beliefs that % % % has spawned a good deal of media Yes 11 9 14 attention, and which has been the No 89 91 85 topic of a considerable amount of con­ No opinion 1 cern within more traditional, mainline 100 100 100 churches. •Less than 0.5% It is very hard to pinpoint what the New Age movement is. (One New Age In your opinion, are UFOs some­ author's attempt goes as follows: "It thing real, or just people's imagi­ is the condition that emerges when nation? I live life in a creative, empowering, compassionate manner. It manifests when I recognize and honor both the 1973 1978 1990 % % % intrinsic wholeness of my world and Real 54 57 47 the value and importance of every­ imagination 30 27 31 thing within it.") But to many it is No opinion 16 16 22 connected with public figures like Shirley MacLaine, and such psychic 100 100 100 activities as channeling, crystal and pyramid power, and belief in Do you think there are people reincarnation. somewhere like ourselves living on One New Age author's essay on other planets in the universe or not? channeling is titled "What Is Channel­ ing and Why Is It So Popular?" and 1973 1978 1989 1990 contends that there is "an extraordi­ % % % % Yes 46 51 41 46 nary upswing in public interest in the No 38 33 48 36 phenomenon we now call channeling." No opinion 16 16 11 18 This upswing is not evident in our national Gallup data: Only 11 percent 100 100 100 100 say they believe in channeling (defined as "participating in a trance during which a 'spirit-being' temporarily assumes control of your body"), and Belief that there is intelligent life only 2 percent say they have ever elsewhere in the universe and that participated in it. UFOs are real apparently does not Similarly small numbers have used mean that this intelligent life has a pyramid or rock crystal for their

Winter 1991 145 purported healing powers (1 percent Have you heard or read about the and 3 percent, respectively). New Age movement? In fact, only about three of ten (29 % percent) Americans say they have Yes 29 heard of the New Age movement, and No 69 for those who have, their view is No opinion 2 decidedly more negative than positive. Forty-nine percent have an unfavor­ 100 able view of the New Age movement, with only 18 percent professing a (The following three questions favorable view. were asked only of those who Unfavorable opinions may reflect had heard of the New Age the concern being expressed by many movement, 386 respondents.) church leaders and theologians. Unfa­ vorable opinions are particularly Do you have a favorable or unfa­ vorable opinion of it? strong among Protestants, evangeli­ cals, and those who attend church % regularly. In fact, about one-third of those who have heard of the New Age Favorable 18 movement feel that it is a threat to Unfavorable 49 traditional religions, a sentiment that No opinion . 33 jumps to 50 percent among "born- 100 again" Christians and is in general higher among the more religious Do you think the New Age move­ Protestants. ment is good for traditional reli­ gions, a threat to traditional Methodology religions, or does it not affect traditional religions either way? The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected % national sample of 1,236 adults, 18 and Good for traditional religions 7 older, conducted June 14-17,1990. For A threat to traditional religion 35 results based on a sampling of this size, Not affect traditional religions one can say with 95 percent confi­ either way 36 dence that the error attributable to No opinion 22 sample and other random effects could 100 be plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, % J i Do you think the New Age 1 v i > question wording and practical diffi­ ment is good for United culties in conducting surveys can society, a threat to society, 01 introduce error or bias into the it not affect society either way. findings of public opinion polls.

% Good for society 13 George H. Gallup, Jr., is co-chairman A threat to society 34 of the Gallup Organization, Frank Not affect society either way 33 Newport is editor-in-chief of the Gallup No opinion 20 Poll. The Gallup Poll is conducted by the Gallup Organization, Inc., P.O. Box 100 310, Princeton, N] 08542.

146 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Science and Self-Govern ment

GERARD PEL

Gerard Piel is Chairman Emeritus of the Scientific American. This was his keynote address at the 1990 C5ICOP conference in Washington, D.C., where he received CSlCOP's In Praise of Reason Award.

welcome this occasion to declare my admira­ tion and thanks for what CSICOP has done I over these many years in the front lines of environmental protection. Your work in the de- pollution of public discourse makes it possible to hope that our citizenry can get on with the task of self-government. It strikes me often that yours must be a thankless enterprise. Most of the time, you are talking to people who are there to assert their Science and First Amendment right to be nuts. You must feel, at times, like Brer Rabbit in his engagement math education with the tarbaby. prepares and That was the experience, certainly, of Edward U. Condon, when he undertook to set the public liberates people straight on unidentified flying objects. Having for citizenship. been labeled "the weakest link in our atomic security" by the House Un-American Activities Reforms like those Committee and having surmounted that slur after Sputnik are without any help from Washington officialdom, again necessary, Ed took on the public service of trying to prove a negative: of persuading the public that the and university U.S. Air Force was not concealing secrets about scientists must UFOs. There followed the most trying years of his life, even worse than his experience with once more lead HUAC. His staff had been penetrated by UFO the way. nuts. Upon publication of the Condon Report, they spent the next half-decade confounding public appreciation of the conclusive evidence laid out in that report. Like the marvelous apparitions that so enchant them, these people turn up everywhere. Your invitation gives me an occasion, further,

Winter 1991 to declare my pride and pleasure in matics), 95 minutes to reading and my long association with Martin writing, and 20 minutes to science and Gardner and my complicity with him social studies. Whatever the time in the blows he struck for the cause given to science in those 20 minutes, of reason in the pages of Scientific its teacher almost invariably learned American—for example, in his unrem­ to hate the subject before she or he itting put-on of Targ and Puthoff. got past the third grade and is now It is wise of CSICOP to hold its putting the children through the same 1990 conference in Washington, D.C. experience. Teachers taught that way An administration that had a White cannot teach science. They teach House house-astrologer has just gone revelation. For the children, the sci­ out of office. For all we know, the ence they are taught has no more Pentagon continues its top-secret grounding in reality than the other research into the paranormal, with things they are told about the world special emphasis on clairvoyance or, with the same awesome authority by as they call it over there, "remote their teacher, their parents, and seeing." And we know all too well that almost every other adult. billions continue to be laid out on the From our high schools one-third of ga-ga notions that inspire the danger­ the students graduate with only one ously destabilizing Star Wars project. year of what is called mathematics; Perhaps holding this meeting here only one-third graduate with three will remind the new occupant of the years of "math." More than half White House that he promised to be graduate with only one year of the Education President. This is a good science; less than one-third have three time to press the urgency of doing years of science. Less than 20 percent something about the fact that some of our high schools teach physics; a large number of our fellow citizens are very much smaller percentage of our unable to tell the difference between students are learning any physics. sense and nonsense. The campaign We need to recall that moment back promise to improve education was in 1957 when Sputnik was taunting qualified by the candidate's tender us with its signals from high overhead. concern for our tax burden. This President Eisenhower came on the gathering should tell him we are ready networks to tell his fellow citizens that to put our money where his lips are— over there, where Sputnik came from, ready to pay taxes for sound public the children were getting seven years education. He should know, more­ of physics and ten years of mathemat­ over, that we are ready to give our ics along with six years of biology and time as well as our money to doing six years of chemistry. Today, we something about the fact that so many know that the same is true for Japan of our fellow citizens cannot distin­ and, in fact, for every other industrial guish fact from fantasy. Our self- country. What is more, the children governing democracy must count a in those countries go to school for as smaller number of such citizens in its many as 240 six- to eight-hour days next electorate. in a year. That compares with the That brings us to the deplorable standard 180 five-hour days exacted state of the teaching of science in our of children in our country. Arithmetic schools. In plain language: our schools shows that the children of other are not teaching science. A recent sur­ industrial countries are getting twice vey shows that 40 minutes is given as much education as ours. each day to arithmetic (not mathe­ President Eisenhower persuaded

148 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Congress to pass the National Defense Education Act and got the first substantial federal dollars spent in our jealously local school systems. To rouse a corresponding sense of crisis about education today, of course, we would have to pass a National Competitive Education Act, directed at an entirely different nation. The Japanese, who are worried about the mismanagement of our economy, would be glad to help, I am sure. On the other hand, defenders of our American educational system make a pretty good case for it. Our libertarian and egalitarian schools produce students who, at graduation from college, are abreast of the graduates from the elitist, disciplinar­ Gerard Piel delivers the keynote address at ian systems of the Old World. By not CSICOP's 1990 annual conference. (Randy attempting to separate sheep from Bancroft/Rocky Mountain Skeptics) goats in the secondary schools, as they do in those other systems, American contact with physical reality. From schools rescue for higher learning experience they learn to abstract many students who would otherwise physical principles and then go on to be lost. manage those concepts mathemati­ In the Eisenhower revelations cally. My not very well hidden mes­ about the teaching of science and sage is that science cannot be taught mathematics in the Soviet Union, I or learned from books. It takes prac­ suggest that there is nonetheless a tice. That means experience in the model for our educators to consider. laboratory and the field. Those six to ten years of exposure to That way of teaching and learning each subject do not press full courses comports better with the role that I upon the students in each year. The feel science and mathematics can and students simply learn a little about the should play in the education of chil­ marvelous diversity of nature each dren for citizenship—in the liberal day. That commends itself as a more education of everyone, not just future natural way for children to learn scientists and engineers. What is physics, for example, than to encoun­ wanted in a self-governing society is ter physics as a six-foot brick wall that self-governing citizens. The truly must be jumped on the first try and sovereign citizen, by definition, can with only one chance to do it in the yield to no authority but his or her course of an education. own judgment. To arrive at that The stretched-out learning gives autonomy, students must learn to find the tiniest students the chance to learn their way, as early in their education physics, first of all, kinesthetically. as possible, to the ground of knowl­ Physics, after all, deals with natural edge. As I said, it takes practice. forces, and our first experience of Students must learn how we know those forces is muscular. Children what we know before they can really should start to learn physics from learn anything else.

Winter 1991 149 The way to the ground of knowl­ The deplorable state of the teach­ edge goes straighter in the sciences ing of science and mathematics in our than in other fields of learning. In the schools must be recognized as a humanities and the social sciences, the symptom of the low priority now less objective evidence presents ambi­ accorded to the entire enterprise of guities that require long experience education in our country. Money, in and mature judgment for their reso­ our conspicuous-consumption cul­ lution. Since children are natural ture, is the measure of status. When scientists they can start, at the very the American people were resettling beginning of their educations, to in the suburbs at the end of World acquire the autonomy of knowing War II and building new schools in the how we know. In the field and labor­ open meadows, the compensation of atory, they learn to surrender deeply teachers recovered somewhat from held convictions to the test of evi­ the low level to which it had fallen dence, to think past the naive physics before the war. In the years since, with which we all grow up, to survive penury in the public sector has taken the ambush that Murphy's Law sets them back to where they started. for the most carefully contrived Our schools today cost the country experiment. The student learns what something on the order of $150 billion was said best by Gunnar Myrdal—and a year. That sounds like a lot in the he was a social scientist—"Facts kick!" Senator Dirksen sense: a billion here Citizens who have learned that lesson and a billion there and pretty soon you early enough will trust no one's are talking real money. But almost all judgment but their own. the money goes to salaries—including The one year that is all the science those of a great many bureaucratic that half of our students get in high supernumeraries as well as teachers— school falls far short of supplying that and to heating and lighting and experience. Science in our schools is repairing the roof. Not much more taught, as I have said, as revelation, than a billion out of $150 billion goes from books, and only with luck is this to books and teaching materials. ever accompanied by experience in the The textbook publishers will tell lab or in the field. In the elementary you that they cannot make any schools, teachers typically have no contribution to curriculum develop­ preparation in science and no grasp ment. They do business on thin of mathematics. In the high schools margins. In California, they are more than half the science teachers confronted by competitive bidding, as have only temporary certificates. if books were fungible, like cement. The qualified teachers, the ones They would be the wrong people to who got reasonable education in the go to for curriculum development sciences 30 and 20 years ago, when anyway. They are much better known the Physical Science Study Committee for their subservience to the prevail­ led the reform of the American high ing low standards of instruction; for school science curriculum, are now their willingness to rewrite history for retiring from the schools. What acceptance in regional markets; for remains is a Gideon's army of discour­ their readiness to give equal time to aged, if still resolute, professionals. creationism where local custom and Those teachers had their careers mythology demand it. rescued from earlier burnout by the If something is to be done about first federal dollars for elementary and the deplorable state of the teaching secondary education. of science and mathematics it will have

150 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 to be done, as it was done before, by the scientific community, more spe­ cifically, by the university professors "Science cannot be taught or in that community. Before Sputnik learned from books. It takes raised the wind and got President practice. That means experience Eisenhower on television, university professors had already got together on in the laboratory and the field." the problem with high school teachers at MIT, organized as the Physical Science Study Committee. The names attempted was to give arithmetic the of Jerrold Zacharias, Francis Fried­ dignity of mathematics by exposing man, and Philip Morrison should be the axioms that underlie the familiar celebrated by all their fellow citizens algorithms. Such, for example, is the for what they did in those years. Their one-to-one correspondence grasped enterprise became the example after by each of us in our earliest pre- which university professors in every literate, kinesthetic experience. The other field proceeded to reform, idea was to excite students with the revise, and update the school curric­ realization that mathematics is an ulum materials. ongoing, experimental enterprise that This volunteer citizen initiative has by no means closed its books. activated a dormant mandate from Some children, including a signif­ the U.S. Congress to the National icant number of girls, one of them my Science Foundation that made it own daughter, loved the new math responsible for science education. and went on into mathematics and Quite outside and on top of the money science. More children, on the other from the National Defense Education hand, flunked the standard sacred Act, NSF proceeded to fund the tests of computational skill. Testing curriculum reform committees of the is the bane of our educational system; professoriate. the dead hand it laid on the new math The physicists produced not merely it lays on all creative enterprise in a textbook but a full battery of teaching. The intervention of the supporting materials. Their library of university professors, in this case, demonstration films is still the best only went to affirm the third R as there is to bring physics vividly to the basic, to the exclusion of mathematics. interest and understanding of adoles­ Now, with the electonic calculator to cents. Their experimental kits for the get arithmetic out of the way, mathe­ laboratory have no black boxes; they matics may soon again return to our expose the beauty of physics bare. schools. The biologists wrote three text­ Within half a decade of the pub­ books. One of them brought the new lication of the Physical Science Study molecular biology into the high school. Committee curriculum, the universi­ The chemists wrote two, and one of ties had to redo their freshman them brought the electron into high courses. Each of the reform efforts in school chemistry. the other disciplines had the same From the university mathemati­ consequential effect. Within a decade, cians came, of course, the new math. the teaching of science in the schools The controversy that followed ought of our country had caught up with the to have established the importance of interest that is excited in the students mathematics as a subject for teaching by the changing world they live in. in the earliest school years. What they Over the decade that it ran, this

Winter 1991 151 remarkable enterprise cost the tax­ to your profession and your citizen­ payer about $1 billion, an average ship. By taking the leadership in expenditure of $100 million a year. exciting this initiative, CSICOP can Most of the $1 billion went to finance undertake the necessary preventive "summer institutes" on university and action that goes along with its dem­ college campuses all across the coun­ onstrated, valuable curative activities try. The teachers went there to learn in the cause of reason. the new curricula. More important, The decline of the teaching of the experience reawakened their own science in our schools manifests itself interest in the subjects they were on all sides in our popular culture and teaching. The cost of the curriculum in the way our body politic conducts reform projects that occasioned this the business of our society. It can be expenditure came, surely, to less than seen in the pollution of the media of $100 million over the decade. communication that CSICOP con­ The bleakest spirit over there in the tends with every day. It can be seen Office of Management and Budget in the power of the single-cause ought to be excited by the idea of pressure groups that substitute feel­ leveraging the $150 billion we spend ing for thinking in the shaping of on elementary and secondary educa­ public policy. The political record of tion with the expenditure of a mere the past four decades shows that the $100 million. In the name of the new American people share no common Federalism, he could dump the cost of body of knowledge or understanding the summer institutes on the states on which to form consensus on such and on the school districts. That would urgent topics as energy, the protection leave a mere $10 million to be spent of the environment, and disarma­ on the curriculum materials. Now the ment. Most people are daunted by the leverage goes up to 15,000 to one. If physical world and suffer an asso­ the bleak spirit harbors a faint glow ciated incapacity to make quantitative of humanity, he will be excited to connections, distinctions, and judg­ think that a mere $10 million can make ments. Too many Americans find it worthwhile for our children to themselves coping with life in the spend the 40 billion child hours in man-made world of today in much the school that they are required to spend same ignorance and superstition as each year. their forerunners in the pristine world It is a cinch to sell this program. of nature. All that is necessary is the surge of The next generation must be better initiative from our university science prepared for self-government. The professoriate on the model of the citizen must have autonomous intel­ Physical Science Study Committee. ligence, ready to seek and face the This time, you will not think that you truth, immune to wishful thinking can solve the problem of science and to external authority. That is the teaching once and for all with a single liberating objective of the teaching of push. You will make the commitment mathematics and science in our a permanent one, integral and natural schools. •

152 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 The West Bank Collective Hysteria Episode The Politics of Illness

JAMES R. STEWART

pisodes of mass hysteria have captivated researchers for years, but have thus far Eeluded the efforts of social scientists to provide a comprehensive, systematic explana­ tion of the causes and processes involved. Mass hysteria typically involves the "contagious" spread of physical symptoms (such as fainting, convulsions, nausea, dizziness, and headaches) along with the adoption of a belief system that attributes causation to a toxic agent (such as insects or gases). Although the victims are firmly convinced their illness is "real," extensive People may take medical and environmental studies fail to identify a chemical or biological cause for the part in episodes of symptoms. With no evidence to support the "real mass hysteria not illness" explanation, the authorities typically label the episode as an example of mass hysteria out of fear but and the whole thing is quietly forgotten. The because they mass-hysteria explanation, however, is usually met with opposition from members of the gain rewards, and afflicted group, who remain convinced of the it can be fun. legitimacy of their illness. Investigations of these outbreaks commonly proceed from an assumption that an accumu­ lation of stress from various sources acts as the underlying cause of the episodes. The stress builds and eventually causes one person to "snap" under the pressure and exhibit an idiosyncratic form of behavior (i.e., symptoms of physical illness). This behavior then spreads throughout the immediately affected group, most commonly occurring in schools or work­ places. The behavior is believed to represent a

Winter 1991 form of release or escape from unplea­ 72 hours and the situation calmed sant situations and, as such, most down. closely resembles an episode of panic During this episode more than 60 in the literature of collective behavior girls were hospitalized with severe (Smelser 1962; Kerckhoff and Black symptoms. Those with milder cases 1968; Klapp 1972; and Rose 1982). were treated by local physicians. Other social scientists, however, Medical personnel conducted a bar­ have suggested a competing model of rage of screening tests on the hospi­ explanation. Instead of focusing upon talized victims, but they were unable the fear and anxiety victims are to offer conclusive results regarding supposedly escaping from in a "pan­ a cause of the complaints. Public- icky" fashion, they look at the possible health personnel conducted a compre­ rewards the participants receive. hensive investigation of the environ­ Rather than viewing participants as ment in and around the school. These involved in an escape/panic, they studies also yielded negative results. perceive the victims to be participating The incident was reported by the local in an illness craze in an effort to glean media and accusations were made rewards (Schuler and Parenton 1943; against both the occupying Israeli McGrath 1982; and Gehlen 1977). Defense Forces and recent Israeli This depiction of mass hysteria as a settlers, who were accused of using craze seems to be the more compelling poisons to terrorize the local Arab population. The Israelis vehemently of the two models and was used to denied the charges and, in turn, analyze the following episode. suggested that local Arabs were attempting to politicize what was On March 21, 1983, scores of school­ actually an episode of mass hysteria. girls in the village of Arrabah on the Their conclusions were based upon Israeli-occupied West Bank were studies of similar episodes reported stricken with a mysterious illness. The and researched in the United Kingdom symptoms included nausea, headache, and the United States. Since neither dizziness, and fainting spells. The first side was able to offer enough convinc­ girl stricken was sent home. Within ing evidence to support their respec­ the next few hours dozens of other tive cases, an uneasy stalemate girls were similarly afflicted. The local developed as the situation quieted public-health officer was called after down during the next few days. the initial cases were reported to the school administrators, but was unable The prevailing calm was short­ to locate the cause of the illnesses. The lived. A new outbreak flared up very health official's investigation seemed quickly when 300 schoolgirls were to precipitate an alarming increase in stricken in the neighboring commu­ the number of cases, and the school nity of Jenin on March 26, 1983. The was forced to close later that morning outbreak was similar to the preceding (Landrigan and Miller 1983:17). episode in the patterned symptoms of Public-health officials returned to the victims, but it was significantly the scene in the evening and noted larger and involved more of a cross- an unusual odor of gas. Although the section of the local population. Almost source of the gas could not be pin­ 400 persons were reported to have pointed, it was generally concluded developed symptoms (Landrigan and that it emanated from an open latrine Miller 1983:19-20). The vast majority pit located nearby. Only a very few were again schoolgirls; but a signif­ cases were reported during the next icant number of adult females also

154 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 developed symptoms, and some of the the site of the first two outbreaks; the adult males who helped transport the other was located one hundred miles afflicted children to hospitals as well away in the extreme southern part of as four soldiers of the Israeli Defense the West Bank area. More than 500 Forces also came down with symp­ persons were involved in this phase toms. Local hospitals were inundated. of the episode. The pattern was similar Many patients had to be transferred to that of the first two waves. In each to hospitals in surrounding of these stricken areas the illness communities. started among girls in a school and Once again medical personnel from then spilled over into the surrounding the local community and area public- community, and each incident appears health officials conducted tests. The to have been triggered by children results again failed to discover an smelling odors that they described as organic or environmental cause of the "sulfurlike" or "gaslike" (Landrigan illness. By this time the episode was and Miller 1983:21). Many of the receiving worldwide news coverage, victims were hospitalized and, like the including accusations by the Pales­ participants in the preceding episodes, tinian Liberation Organization that released in a few days. A few isolated "schools had been sprayed with a reports followed during the next two poisonous gas" by the Israelis (New weeks, but these involved single York Times, March 29, 1983). The individuals and did not spread to United Nations called for an investi­ others. gation. The World Health Organiza­ The final tally indicated that almost tion and the International Committee a thousand persons had been involved of the Red Cross sent teams of medical in this series of incidents. Most were personnel to the area to conduct hospitalized, although only briefly. independent investigations. The There were no fatalities and no Israeli Ministry of Health requested reported lingering effects. that a medical team from the Centers Similar occurrences of "mass hys­ for Disease Control in Atlanta, Geor­ teria" have been frequently reported gia, be dispatched to the West Bank in medical and social-science journals. to conduct an investigation (Landrigan These, however, were generally much and Miller 1983:2). smaller in size than the West Bank During this time the episode was outbreaks. This episode captured the marred by violence. Angry mobs of journalistic fancy of the world news Arab demonstrators protested the media, which featured stories of the "poisonings." During one confronta­ illness on an almost daily basis. Never tion, Arab teenagers were injured by before had an outbreak of mass gunfire from frightened Israeli hysteria been so widely covered or so settlers (Shipler 1983). There were heavily politicized. Speculation also isolated incidents of vigilanteism abounded regarding the cause of the on both sides as tensions escalated. mass illness and seemed to reflect This second outbreak ended abruptly more political than medical consider­ on March 28. No new hospital admis­ ations. Those supporting the "poison sions were reported during the next gas" explanation thought that either week. Israeli soldiers or recent Israeli settlers The third and final wave of ill­ in the West Bank area were terroriz­ nesses occurred April 3. Two different ing the local Arab population with areas were simultaneously struck. poison gas. Schools were considered One was a neighboring community to to be favorite targets because of their

Winter 1991 155 high concentration of population and . . . This epidemic of acute illness the vulnerability of schoolchildren. was induced by anxiety. It may have On the other side were the advocates been triggered initially either by of a "mass hysteria" explanation. psychological factors or by subtoxic These persons attributed the illnesses exposure to hydrogen sulfide. Its subsequent spread was mediated by to a pre-existing emotionally charged psychogenic factors. Newspapers situation (Israeli-Arab hostilities) in and radio reports may have contrib­ which some gullible schoolgirls had uted to this spread. succumbed to an environmental trig­ gering stimulus (sewer gas), and the Drawing from its extensive inves­ resulting spread of symptoms was a tigation, the CDC team cited a textbook example of mass psycho­ number of findings strongly support­ genic illness. ing the mass-hysteria explanation. Persons who subscribed to the First and foremost were the findings poison-gas interpretation included from comprehensive laboratory stud­ local Arab public-health officials (who ies, which produced no evidence of the maintained the illness was real), the existence of any toxic agents in the Palestinian Liberation Organization air, soil, or water of the stricken areas. and their spokesman, Yasser Arafat Tests conducted on blood and urine (who labeled it a planned and sys­ samples of the hospitalized patients tematic crime against Arabs), Radio similarly produced no evidence of toxic Moscow (which issued a statement etiology. Second, the great majority condemning the Israelis for their use of the victims were adolescent girls, of gas), and most third world delegates a group previous investigations had to the World Health Organization demonstrated to be the most vulner­ (who voted to condemn Israel for able to these outbreaks. Finally, the glossing over and rejecting the poison- form and duration of the clinical gas theory in favor of the mass- symptoms were consistent with pre­ hysteria explanation). Other fervent vious mass-hysteria findings. The supporters included local "radical" episodes typically began slowly, PLO supporters who were purported flared-up quickly, and terminated to have encouraged the episode by after a few days. Although the symp­ hanging around the schools and toms were suggestive of a severe hospitals (New York Times, May 21, illness, all of the patients recovered 1983). quickly and suffered no physical after­ effects (Landrigan and Miller 1983:26- Proponents of the mass-hysteria 28). explanation included Israeli public- health officials and a team of two In a limited, parallel investigation, physicians from the Centers for a team dispatched from the World Disease Control in Atlanta (Landrigan Health Organization reached similar and Miller 1983). Unlike previous although watered-down conclusions documented examples of this pheno­ (WHO, 1983). Its support for a "mass menon, the West Bank episode hysteria" explanation was largely involved relatively large numbers and implicit and based upon the inability a geographically dispersed population. of their findings to indicate any Yet these differences could not detract specific toxic cause or set of causes. from sound medical and scientific The WHO report does, however, evidence that clearly supported a make mention of the tension and psychogenic explanation. Landrigan anxiety under which the people of the and Miller (1983:1) concluded: occupied territories lived and the

156 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 compoundingly stressful develop­ students and helped to minimize the mental period of adolescence in opportunity for spread of symptoms females. Both of these observations among students clustered together support a mass-hysteria explanation in the classroom environment. even though the WHO report doesn't come right out and say so. An analysis using the craze model The International Committee of rests upon identifying the valued goals the Red Cross also sent an investiga­ or rewards that may have motivated tor to the area and, based upon his the participants to adopt the sick role. findings, called for a full-fledged For some it may have been a release investigation to be performed by a or escape from a recently arisen avoid­ competent body (ICRC, 1983). They ance dilemma. During the week reached no conclusions about the immediately prior to the first flare- cause of the episode and have refused up, "radical Palestinian factors" had to release the findings of their inves­ been active in encouraging school­ tigations, citing the need for confiden­ children to strike and join demonstra­ tiality in their inquiries. tions commemorating Land Day Landrigan and Miller (1983:29-30) (March 30 was the anniversary of the offered a concluding explanation: killing of six Arabs in anti-Israeli demonstrations in 1976). Masked men 1. The initial outbreak at were reported to have visited several Arrabah appears to have been trig­ schools in the area and called for the gered either by psychological factors students to skip classes and participate or possibly by the smell of escaping in the planned demonstrations. Offi­ H2S from an outdoor latrine. cials found a pamphlet in one of the Although the concentrations of H2S Jenin schools threatening the students at the school in Arrabah are not at and strongly urging them to go on all likely to have reached toxic levels, there may have been sufficient strike (Shipler 1983). These forces of concentration of gas following provocation may have caused an flooding of the latrine during heavy intensive avoidance situation for rains in Spring, 1983 to have pro­ students who were caught between duced a foul odor and consequent the untenable choice of cutting their upper respiratory irritation in a few classes and joining the strike or being students. Previous studies of out­ labeled as pro-Israel. The sick-role breaks of psychogenic illness have behavior would have provided a emphasized that a perception of welcome and legitimate way out. One strange odors or gases by affected could actually participate in a pseudo- individuals have frequently pre­ strike (mass hysteria) without fear of ceded onset of illness (Colligan and Murphy, 1979). being held accountable by either parents or authorities. Nor would the 2. The subsequent spread of the students have to fear being stigmat­ outbreak was due to psychogenic factors. That spread may have been ized as pro-Israel. facilitated by newspaper and radio Another reward was notoriety. reports which described the symp­ Most of the stricken persons were toms in detail and strongly sug­ taken to hospitals for treatment. gested that a toxic gas was the cause of the outbreaks. While in the hospitals, the patients 3. The termination of the out­ were given special care. Some were break was probably related to the treated like celebrities. They received closing of West Bank schools. The the best available care by local medical closing of the schools dispersed the personnel and were accorded a special

Winter 1991 157 status unavailable to patients with field research and interviews, I was mundane conditions. They were struck by the enthusiasm with which viewed as the innocent victims of people adopted an explanation fraught heinous chemical warfare perpetrated with terror and fright. If people truly by the Israeli settlers (Newsweek, April believed that extraterrestrials or 18,1983). satanic cults were killing and mutila­ The schoolgirls also found them­ ting cattle or that big, hairy monsters selves at the center of attention from were making mysterious footprints in the representatives of the World their areas, they should have been Health Organization, the Interna­ exhibiting fear or at least high levels tional Red Cross, and the U.S. Centers of anxiety. Instead they seemed to be for Disease Control. These teams enthusiastically embracing the most questioned large numbers of the fearsome and gory versions of the afflicted girls in their attempts to monster explanations. Rather than establish an etiology of the illness. In being motivated by panic; they seemed addition, the world media showered to show great eagerness to participate them with attention. There was even in these collective delusions. In fact, one instance in which a CBS news interviewees willingly performed team was arrested by Israeli author­ mental gymnastics to believe the ities for encouraging "hospitalized bizarre explanation instead of the school girls to act ill for the camera" more empirically supportable, scien­ (New York Times, April 5,1983). tific account of the cause of dead cattle or mysterious, enlarged footprints. American television networks car­ ried extensive stories on the hospital­ Another way the participants can ized victims, highlighted by examples gain from assuming the sick role is of schoolgirls acting in a frenzied, that it gives them the power to convulsive manner, almost on cue, manipulate persons in positions of everytime the cameras panned in their authority. Previous studies of mass direction. The hospitalized schoolgirls hysteria have shown that victims have depicted on television also gave the 'V higher rates of absenteeism or poorer for victory sign for the benefit of relationships with their supervisors cameras at what appeared to have all than control-group members (Colli- of the earmarks of a fun-filled hospital gan and Murphy 1982:43-45). Those slumber party. They exhibited a who fall victim may have found a way nonchalant concern over their illness. to embarrass or retaliate against Given the seriousness of the symp­ immediate authorities. Surveys toms, the patients' responses seemed administered by the CDC team totally inappropriate. Their attitude showed no significant differences could best be described as la belle between the affected and nonaffected indifference—a lack of concern that schoolgirls with respect to grades, psychiatrists have noted in individual previous use of sick days, or relation­ cases of conversion hysteria. There ships with their teachers. However, were also reports from Israeli sources these were self-administered ques­ claiming that some of the girls had tionnaires and the research team had admitted faking their symptoms no independent measures to check the (Time, April 18,1983). respondents' veracity. As a result, no evidence can be presented that the I have noted a somewhat similar victims used the illness as a weapon attitude characterizing "believers" in against school authorities, but parti­ episodes of cattle mutilations and cipation in the hysteria episode cer- Bigfoot sightings. While conducting

158 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 tainly brought embarrassment to the embarrass, humiliate, and punish the occupying Israeli soldiers and settlers. occupying Israelis in front of the There is no need to present a detailed whole world. The illness provided history of Israeli-Arab hostilities in vivid "proof" of the heinous nature of the West Bank; it is obviously one of the Israelis, who were pictured as the most politically sensitive areas in having used poisoned gas against the world today. Tension has been helpless schoolchildren. The oppor­ extremely high since the Israeli occu­ tunity of powerless persons suddenly pation after the Six-Day War in 1967. finding themselves in a position with Establishment of Israeli settlements in enough political clout to hurt their the area during the past two decades "enemies" could have been a powerful have greatly exacerbated an emotion­ motivator. The advantageous position ally charged situation that was already that victims find themselves in illus­ at the breaking point. Israelis were trates why mass psychogenic illness accused of using both poisonous gas is considered to be a political as well and a mysterious yellow powder (later as a behavioral phenomenon (Colligan identified as pollen) to scare the and Murphy 1982). Palestinians from their rightful home­ The temporary fame enjoyed by land in the West Bank. Newspaper the victims also may have served as headlines and lead stories on radio and a method of gaining prestige among television readily reported the accu­ peers and the larger community. The sation of mass poisoning. And as is illness could have provided instant often the case in episodes of hysteria notoriety and a method of becoming and delusions, the media tended to the center of attention. Phoon share the sensational aspects of the (1982:31) has drawn similar conclu­ story and give less coverage to the sions in a study of outbreaks of occu­ medical refutations of the original pational mass hysteria. Victims, far accounts. from being ridiculed or condemned, Smelser (1962:175-188) has iden­ often receive expressions of concern tified four positive goals or media of and sympathy from parents, work­ exchange that motivate people to mates, and even management. Finally, participate in crazes. They are money/ the pleasantness associated with the property, power, prestige, and psychic carnival atmosphere surrounding the gratification. There is no evidence that episode could have encouraged others any of the West Bank victims realized to join those already sick. The "fun" monetary gains from being stricken associated with spending a few days with the illness, but there is a strong in a hospital ward with friends would case that they did enjoy gains in the have been a psychologically gratifying other three dimensions. experience. It would have been a way The power to manipulate others of establishing in-group ties among could have been beneficial to the the afflicted and creating a cohesive stricken patients. A two- or three-day "we" feeling. It has been suggested medical vacation from school and that participation in episodes of mass family responsibilities with no fear of hysteria is a rewarding experience retribution, along with the pampered (Stahl 1982). The victims share their care received while in the hospital, experiences by displaying the "stereo­ may have been a powerful inducement typed" symptoms and make the be­ for developing symptoms. The acqui­ havior a collective rather than indi­ sition of power was also evidenced by vidual experience. The actors mutu­ the ability of stricken patients to ally reinforce one another.

Winter 1991 159 It's time that social scientists take Landrigan, Philip J., and Bess Miller. 1983. a hard look at the underlying assump­ Epidemic acute illness—West Bank." tions upon which previous investiga­ Report to the Centers for Disease Con­ trol, April 20. tions of mass hysteria were based— McGrath, Joseph E. 1982. Complexities, that of unwitting victims being in­ cautions, and concepts in research on voluntarily stricken by psycho­ mass psychogenic illness. In Mass Psycho­ physiological symptoms because of genic Illness, ed. by Michael J. Colligan, James W. Pennebaker, and Lawrence R. stressful environments. Rather than Murphy. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence escaping, the victims may be drawn Erlbaum. to the possibility of getting a couple Newsweek. 1983. A "poison" scare on the of days off from work or school West Bank. April 18:42. without fear of reprisals. Rather than New York Times. 1983. Israel finds no poison at 6 Arab schools, March 29; U.N. calls suffering, victims may actually be for investigation, April 5; World health enjoying the illness. Rather than being agency condemns Israel over West Bank repulsed by some stress stimulus, epidemic, May 13; Israelis dismiss Arab victims may be attracted to the bene­ official in West Bank illness dispute, May 21; Editors' notes, May 21. fits and rewards of becoming ill. Con­ Phoon, W. P. 1982. Outbreaks of mass tracting the disease may represent a hysteria at workplaces in Singapore: form of collective wish-fulfillment Some patterns and modes of presenta­ and, as such, should be analyzed from tion. In Mass Psychogenic Illness, ed. by Michael J. Colligan, James W. Pennebaker, the perspective of a craze. and Lawrence Murphy. Hillsdale: N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum. References Rose, Jerry D. 1982. Outbreaks: The Sociology of Collective Behavior. New York: Free Press. Colligan, Michael J., and Lawrence Murphy. Ross, E. A. 1908. Social Psychology. New York: 1982. A review of mass psychogenic Macmillan. illness in work settings. In Mass Psycho­ Schuler, Edgar, and Vernon J. Parenton. genic Illness, ed. by Michael J. Colligan, 1943. A recent epidemic of hysteria in a James W. Pennebaker, and Lawrence Louisiana high school. Journal of Social Murphy. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Psychology, 17:221-235. Erlbaum. Shipler, David K. 1983. Hundreds fall sick . 1979. Mass psychogenic illness in or­ in West Bank; poison suspected. New York ganizations: An overview, journal of Times, March 28. Occupational Psychology, 52:77-90. Smelser, Neil J. 1962. Theory of Collective Colligan, Michael J., James W. Pennebaker, Behavior. New York: Free Press. and Lawrence Murphy. 1982. Mass Stahl, Sidney M. 1982. Illness as an emergent Psychogenic Illness: A Social Psychological norm or doing what comes naturally. In Analysis. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Mass Psychogenic Illness, ed. by Michael Erlbaum. J. Colligan, James W. Pennebaker, and Gehlen, Frienda L. 1977. Toward a revised Lawrence Murphy. Hillsdale, N.J.: Law­ theory of hysterical contagion. Journal of rence Erlbaum. Health and Social Behavior, 18:27-35. Time. 1983. Ailing schoolgirls. April 18:52. ICRC (International Committee of the Red WHO (World Health Organization). 1983. Cross). 1983. Israel and occupied West Health conditions of the Arab population Bank: An ICRC recommendation. ICRC in the occupied Arab territories, including press release, April 7. Palestine. Report to the Director General, Kerckhoff, Alan C, and Kurt Black. 1968. May 11. The June Bug. New York: Appleton- Century-Crofts. Klapp, Orrin E. 1972. Currents of Unrest: An James R. Stewart is with the Department Introduction to Collective Behavior. New of Social Behavior, University of South York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. Dakota, Vermillion, SD 57069.

160 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Acceptance of Personality Test Results i _l

PHILIPPE THIRIART

Abstract: Is the accuracy of the result of a personality test an important factor in its acceptance by a psychologist's client? In the present experiment, the acceptance of scores in the "Survey of Interpersonal Values" by L. V. Gordon has only a slight correlation with their scientific accuracy (phi = 0.14). Furthermore, acceptance is more closely related to high scores People are more (phi = 0.38). These findings indicate that people are more willing to accept socially desirable willing to accept statements about themselves than those that socially desirable are scientifically accurate. The findings also suggest why many people easily accept state­ statements about ments about their personality that come from themselves than astrologers and palm readers. those that are rofessionals often evaluate the effective­ scientifically ness of their actions based on the satis­ accurate. Pfaction expressed by their clients. However, is a professional in psychology able to rely on the client's satisfaction as a means of validating statements he or she makes about the client's personality? A considerable number of experiments have been conducted in the past concerning what has been called the "P. T. Barnum Effect" (Snyder and Shenkel 1975; Thiriart and Legault 1982; Baillargeon and Danis 1984; Sunerton and Fichten 1984). These experiments consist in having subjects believe that there will be detailed analyses of their personalities (using a person­ ality inventory test or an astrological reading). They are then presented with statements that are true for most people, such as: "You see yourself as being an independent thinker and as not accepting the opinions of others without

Winter 1991 adequate proof." "You possess a presenting subjects with a number of number of personal resources that profiles, one of which is their own and you have not used to your advantage." others selected at random rather than "Deep down, you are more sensitive being inverted. This is what Shawn than you usually let on." Carlson (1985) did using the Califor­ When statements of this nature are nia Personality Inventory (CPI). made, a subject typically reacts by con­ Carlson wondered to what extent sidering them to be very true about test subjects could recognize exact himself or herself, but only moder­ descriptions of themselves when ately true of people in general. The included with descriptions of others. subject tends to believe that these Subjects were to identify their CPI statements reveal important aspects profile from a set of three. The 106 of his or her own uniqueness. The subjects, most of whom were adults, experiment works even when those were able to identify their actual conducting the experiment are junior profile 43 percent of the time, that is, college students, so long as they only 10 percentage points better than behave in a confident manner. the 33 percent one would expect in A second type of experiment in­ a random selection. This rate cor­ volves asking subjects to select their responds to a correlation coefficient personality profile from a number of phi = 0.15 (Guilford 1965: 334). The other personality profiles. Roger L. subjects easily took descriptions of Greene and his colleagues (1979) others as their own. conducted an experiment using Our approach involves a third type H. G. Gough's California Personality of experiment. Psychologists and Inventory. The categories used in the astrologers make statements about results of this test are close to those their clients' personalities, some of of daily experience: sociability, self- which are true and some false. We acceptance, sense of well-being, wanted to measure to what extent responsibility, self-control, tolerance, subjects are able to distinguish be­ and so on. In Greene's experiment, 68 tween true and faked results within students were presented with two the same personality profile. We used personality profiles: one, their actual the Survey of Interpersonal Values de­ profile; the other, a profile created by veloped by Leonard V. Gordon (1976). inverting the more extreme traits of Several other articles have been their actual profile. Random selection published on the general topic (Ruz- would have had about 34 students zene and Noller 1986). Unfortunately, selecting their actual profile and the these articles do not usually give same number selecting the inverted information that allows for measure­ profile. In fact, 48 subjects chose their ment of the effects under observation. own profile and 20 subjects chose the Statistics they use allow one to know inverted profile. This corresponds to only whether the results are signif­ a correlation coefficient phi = 0.41 and icant or not (Thiriart 1983; Nelson, a chi-square 11.53 (Guilford 1965: Rosenthal, and Rosnow 1986). 334). Our hypothesis predicts that there The correlation coefficient 0.41 can is only a slight correlation between the be interpreted as the upper limit of accuracy of a statement describing a one's self-knowledge since this situa­ personality and its acceptance by the tion is the easiest for the subject. It subject. Subjects are barely able to is possible to render the task more differentiate between true scientific difficult, although more natural, by results and faked results. We will also

162 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 try to discover what other factors posed of 2,412 male students and might influence acceptance of the 1,529 female students of college age results. and were tested across the United States. Methodology When the tests are scored, two of the values are faked according to a The sample group is composed of 99 specific procedure. Altogether each female college students and 33 male value is modified an approximately college students (N = 132) with an equal number of times (42 to 47 average age of 18. times). The scores are faked by adding The test employed is Gordon's or cutting 50 percent depending on Survey of Interpersonal Values. It whether the percentile was initially measures the relative importance a above or below the 50th percentile. person gives to the following six For example, a subject who is in the interpersonal values: (1) Conformity: 80th percentile in one of the values, doing what is socially correct, follow­ might be told that he or she is in reality ing regulations closely, doing what is in the 30th percentile. In practice, the accepted and proper, being a confor­ faking procedure inverts the weight mist. (2) Recognition: being looked up of the score. to and admired, being considered A month after taking the test, the important, attracting favorable notice, scores (4 real and 2 fake) are returned achieving recognition. (3) Benevo­ to each subject. They are accompanied lence: doing things for other people, by a printed text explaining each of sharing with others, helping the the interpersonal values listed above, unfortunate, being generous. (4) Inde­ as well as a verbal interpretation of pendence: having the right to do what­ each score. A percentile score from 1 ever one wants to, being free to make to 19 represents a value that is very one's own decisions, being able to do rarely of importance to the subject. things in one's own way. (5) Leader­ A score between 20 and 39 is rarely ship: being in charge of other people, important. A score between 40 and 59 having authority over others, being in is moderately important. Between 60 a position of leadership or power. (6) and 79, a value is often important. A Support: being treated with under­ score between 80 and 99 represents standing, receiving encouragement a value that is very often important from other people, being treated with to the subject. kindness and consideration. Subjects are then asked for each A low score in one of the value value to mentally examine their scales does not imply that the subject behavior to see whether it is similar is pathological or deficient but that the or dissimilar to their score and to subject is indifferent to the particular express their agreement by selecting value in question. In fact, the test was a number from 1 to 6. The subject selected because it is relatively writes "1" when in strong disagree­ innocuous. ment with the result; "2" when in The norm for each value is pre­ disagreement; "3" when in partial sented to the subject in the form of disagreement; "4" when in partial a percentile. The percentile indicates agreement; "5" when in agreement; to the subject the importance he or and "6" when in strong agreement. she gives a value in relation to a After giving their assessments, the standardized group of the same sex. subjects are given their true scores and The standardized groups are com­ told the purpose of the experiment.

Winter 1991 163 Results scores. The table corresponds to a correlation coefficient of phi = 0.38. It is worth noting the average degree (A 12-entry table yields C = 0.41.) of acceptance of the 792 scores by the 132 subjects. (See Table 1.) The TABLE 2 general average of acceptance is 4.07. The relation between subject disagreement Overall, subjects expressed partial (12, and 3) and agreement (4,5, and 6), agreement with their scores, but and low and high scores. disagreed with a third of them. Disagree Agree Total TABLE 1 198 184 382 The relation between disagreement (12, 52% 48% 100% or 3) and agreement (4, 5, or 6), and true and faked scores. 67 343 410 Disagree Agree Total 16% 84% 100% Faked 113 151 264 265 527 792 43% 57% 100% A multiple regression analysis was Actual 152 376 528 done for each of the six values and 29% 71% 100% confirmed that agreement by the subjects was clearly more closely tied Total 265 527 792 to high scores than to accuracy. 33% 67% 100% The correlation between high scores and agreement is particularly What is the correlation that brings strong for the values of benevolence together the fact that a score may be (Beta = 0.64), independence (Beta = faked or actual with agreement or 0.70), and support (Beta = 0.68). disagreement of the subjects? Table (These coefficients are significant to 1 shows that subjects disagree with 0.001.) On the other hand, in the best 43 percent of the faked scores and case, that of benevolence, the relation with 29 percent of the actual scores. between agreement and actual scores A four-entry table allows for the yields only a coefficient of Beta = 0.20. calculation of a correlation coefficient of phi = 0.14. If the table had had 12 Interpretation entries (2 x 6), we would have had a contingency correlation of 0.18 Why do subjects distinguish so poorly (Guilford 1965: 333-338). In both between faked and actual scores? A cases, the coefficient is very close to possible interpretation is that the that reached by Carlson (phi = 0.15). people with whom one compares We then wondered whether there oneself in order to gauge personality was a relation between high scores rarely constitute a representative and the agreement expressed by the sample of the population to which one subjects. Table 2 shows how low belongs. As a result, each person's self- scores (49th percentile and lower) fare image coincides only partly with his compared with high scores (50th or her position in the population. percentile and higher). Subjects dis­ Consequently, subjects in this exper­ agreed with 52 percent of the low iment do not have an assessment of scores but with only 16 percent of high themselves that is accurate enough to

164 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 know which score to reject. Thus, they References reject a number of actual scores (29 percent) and only a minority of faked Baillargeon, }., and C. Danis. 1984. Barnum scores (43 percent). meets the computer: A critical test. Jacques-Philippe Leyens offers the journal of Personal Assessment, 48 (4):415- 419. basis for a second possible interpre­ Beauvois, J. L. 1984. La psychologic quoti- tation. He states: "Only certain per­ dienne. Paris: P.U.F. sonality traits are relevant to describe Carlson, S. 1985. A double blind test of a particular individual and they vary astrology. Nature, 318:419-425. from one person to another; it follows Gordon, L. V. 1976. Survey of Interpersonal Values. Chicago: Science Research Asso­ that only relevant traits are stable in ciates, Inc. each individual" (1983: 175). In addi­ Guilford, J. P. 1965. Fundamental Statistics in tion, statements about a personality Psychology and Education. New York: do not correspond to a working McGraw-Hill. description but rather to a judgment. Greene, R. L., M. E. Harris, and R. S. Macon. 1979. Another look at personal validation. When it is said that a person is Journal of Personality Assessment, 43 nervous, this is not a description of (4):419-423. the person's behavior in standard Leyens, J. P. 1983. Sommes-nous tous des situations, but rather an inferred psycholoaues? Brussels: Pierre Mardaga. judgment based on arbitrarily selected Nelson, N., R. Rosenthal, and R. L. Rosnow. 1986. Interpretation of significance levels situations (Beauvois 1984). One need and effect sizes by psychological only think of a new situation to pro­ researchers. American Psychologist, 41 duce a different inference. Finally, the (11):1299-1301. inference process itself may be marred Nisbett, R., and L. Ross. 1980. Human by error (Nisbett and Ross 1980). In Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social judgment. Englewood Cliffs: everyday life, we easily forget that the Prentice-Hall. personality is not something real that Ruzzene, M., and P. Noller. 1986. Feedback we can observe and describe. Instead, motivations and reactions to personality it is an intellectual construct. interpretations that differ in favorability and accuracy, journal of Personality and Why do subjects so easily accept Social Psychology, 51 (6): 1293-1299. high scores for certain values when Snyder, C. R., and R. J. Shenkel. 1975. The their actual scores for these values are P. T. Barnum effect. Psychology Today, March: 52-54. low? It seems to be a question of social Sunerton, B., and C. S. Fichten. 1984. desirability. For a student in the social Laboratory exercises for psychology sciences, it is socially desirable to think courses: Scientific study of horoscopes. of wanting to act on one's own Tires a part, 5:43-46. (independence), to benefit from the Thiriart, P. 1983. Resultat significatif et telepathie. Tires a part, 4:34-38. understanding and attention of others Thiriart, P., and M. Legault. 1982. The (support), and to wish good for others P. T. Barnum effect ou les pieges du moi. (benevolence). In a lighter vein, one La petite revue de philosophic, 4(1):157-172. might argue that psychologists, astrol­ ogers, and palm readers who wish to Philippe Thiriart teaches psychology at better satisfy their clients should tell College Edouard-Montpetit, 945 Chemin them what they want to hear rather de Chambly, Longueuil, Quebec, Canada, than the strict truth. In any case, to ]4H 3M6. He is also the editor of get along in life is it necessary to know Bulletin des Sceptiques du Quebec. oneself completely? Is it not, perhaps, The experiment discussed in this text was more useful to project a socially conducted in collaboration with Francois desirable image both for others and Berthiaume, professor of psychology at for oneself? College Bois-de-Boulogne in Montreal.

Winter 1991 165 Belief in Astrology A Test of the Barnum Effect i

CHRISTOPHER C. FRENCH, MANDY FOWLER, KATY MCCARTHY, and DEBBIE PEERS

here is no empirical support for the claims of traditional astrological theory (see Culver Tand Ianna 1988; Dean and Mather 1977; Eysenck and Nias 1982; Gauquelin 1979; Jerome 1977; Kelly 1979; Startup 1984). Despite this, the level of belief in astrology in the general population is high and shows no sign of declining. Most people who have their horo­ scopes cast perceive those horoscopes to be an accurate description of their personalities. Why should this be? The simple Several factors have been suggested as Barnum effect playing a role in forming and maintaining a belief in the validity of horoscopes (Dean 1987; Tyson provides the best 1982). One of the most well known is the so- explanation for called Barnum effect, the tendency for people to accept vague, ambiguous, and general state­ belief in astrology, ments as descriptive of their unique personal­ regardless of the ities. professed level of There are two differing reasons given in the literature for naming this inclination to believe belief. "the Barnum effect," although both are based on quotations from P. T. Barnum. The first is that the famous circus-owner maintained that his secret of success was always to have a little something for everyone. Likewise, the typical astrological personality profile consists of a collection of statements carefully selected to enable everyone to see something of themselves in the description. The second, more cynical reason is that Barnum's most infamous phrase was, of course, "There's a sucker born every minute." The best way to appreciate the force of the

166 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Barnum effect is to actually read a of research has been done on the typical Barnum profile. Try it: psychological factors that influence the Barnum effect. Although a You have a great need for other detailed review of these studies is people to like you and admire you. beyond the scope of this discussion You have a tendency to be critical (see Dickson and Kelly 1985; Furnham of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have and Schofield 1987; Snyder, Shenkel, not used to your advantage. While and Lowery 1977), it is clear that the you have some personality weak­ effect is an important factor in the nesses, you are generally able to acceptance of horoscopes (see, e.g., compensate for them. Your sexual studies by Rosen 1975; Snyder 1974; adjustment has presented problems Snyder, Larsen, and Bloom 1976). for you. Disciplined and self- However, not all statements in controlled outside, you tend to be horoscopes are Barnum-type state­ worrisome and insecure inside. At ments. For example, the typical times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right "Aries" is said to be bold, energetic, decision or done the right thing. You assertive, selfish, insensitive, and prefer a certain amount of change aggressive. Surely, not everyone and variety and become dissatisfied would see themselves as fitting this when hemmed in by restrictions and description. But, as Sundberg (1955) limitations. You pride yourself on pointed out, Barnum profiles consist being an independent thinker and of a variety of statements: do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. You Vague, e.g., "You enjoy a certain have found it unwise to be too frank amount of change and variety in in revealing yourself to others. At life"; double-headed, e.g., "You are times you are extraverted, affable generally cheerful and optimistic and sociable, while at other times but get depressed at times"; modal you are introverted, wary and characteristics of the subject's reserved. Some of your aspirations group, e.g., "You find that study is tend to be pretty unrealistic. Secur­ not always easy"; favorable, e.g., ity is one of your major goals in life. "You are forceful and well-liked by others." Typically, a naive subject reading the personality description above would The typical horoscope is a mix of be impressed by its accuracy if told general statements and rather more that the description was based upon specific ones. People tend to be his or her horoscope. This profile was impressed by the specific details that actually first used in a study some 40 appear to fit (and pay less attention years ago (Forer 1949), but its appeal to those that do not), while the general is as strong today as it was then. Barnum-type statements provide It is important to realize that the readily acceptable "padding." Barnum effect does not apply only to It seemed possible to us that personality descriptions supposedly different psychological mechanisms based upon horoscopes. The effect is might be required to explain the found if the profile is said to be based formation and maintenance of belief upon any form of personality assess­ in strong believers compared with ment, including palmistry, objective moderate believers. One possibility psychological tests, projective tests, was suggested by Goldberg (1979). personal interview, graphology, or Some "Virgos" actually will, by chance Tarot cards. A considerable amount alone, have the personality character-

Winter 1991 167 istics typically associated with that other hand, would not be as inclined sun-sign, and similarly for all of the to look for the typical profile because other sun-signs. Such people will be they are unlikely to possess detailed constantly amazed at the accuracy of knowledge of typical sun-sign profiles. horoscopes based upon this informa­ Moderate believers are likely to be tion and are far more likely to take more impressed by the carefully their interest in the subject further selected Barnum-type statements and than those who feel that the person­ to be less able to distinguish between ality descriptions typical for their sun- genuine and false horoscopes. All of signs are not appropriate—such as a these effects would be relative, of timid "Aries." The believer is likely to course, since even moderate believers buy popular books on astrology and may have some knowledge of their be attracted to others with an interest typical sun-sign profiles. in astrology, and some of these others An alternative hypothesis main­ will by coincidence be typical examples tains simply that the Barnum effect of their sun-signs, providing for the will be equally strong for everyone believer seemingly incontrovertible and that some other (unspecified) fac­ proof that astrology is valid. We shall tor is required to account for differ­ henceforth refer to this model as the ences in belief between strong and "Coincidence Hypothesis," as the moderate believers (see Dean 1987, original match between the typical for possibilities). In this case, one sun-sign profile and the individual's would argue that the effectiveness of personality is totally coincidental. horoscopes is due largely to the The scenario above, although spec­ Barnum effect and that genuine horo­ ulative, seemed plausible to us and led scopes are effective only to the extent to some testable hypotheses. If differ­ that they incidentally capitalize on the ent mechanisms are responsible for effect. We would predict a different producing different levels of belief in pattern of results on the basis of this the way described, then we would hypothesis. Both genuine and predict that strong believers would Barnum-type horoscopes would be show less acceptance of the Barnum- judged as accurate by all believers, but type profile than moderate believers, the Barnum profile ought to be judged for the following reasons. Strong as more accurate, as the careful believers would be likely to have more selection of statements would maxi­ knowledge of the typical characteris­ mize the effect. Furthermore, there tics associated with sun-signs, partic­ would be no difference in the per­ ularly the believers' own signs. ceived accuracy of genuine and false Therefore they would be more horoscopes. We shall refer to this impressed by reading a description hypothesis simply as the "Barnum that corresponded to this typical Hypothesis." pattern and contained reference to A third hypothesis, which has specific expected traits than by the already been thoroughly discredited, more general Barnum-type descrip­ can also be outlined. The "Astrological tion. Furthermore, strong believers Hypothesis" would maintain that the would rate horoscopes cast on the position of the stars and planets at basis of their birth details (henceforth birth really does influence the forma­ referred to as "genuine" horoscopes) tion of personality as outlined in as more accurate than randomly traditional astrology. If this were so, selected horoscopes ("false" horo­ everyone, regardless of degree of scopes). Moderate believers, on the belief, ought to rate genuine horo-

168 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 scopes as more accurate than either scope on the basis of the date of birth false or Barnum-type horoscopes. only and produces a profile consisting In order to test these hypotheses, of a dozen statements (a typical data were collected from 52 subjects, example of the output is shown in most of whom were attending a sixth- Figure 1). The program was modified form college. Ages ranged from 16 to to produce output consisting solely of 35, with a mean age of 18. Thirty- the personality profile, omitting the five of the subjects were female. astrological data upon which the Subjects were told that the study was interpretation was based. The false an assessment of three different com­ horoscopes were randomly selected puter programs for casting horo­ horoscopes from the pool of genuine scopes and were initially asked to horoscopes, so that the two pools were provide information on their date, in fact identical. The Barnum horo­ time, and place of birth as well as scope was the same as the one pres­ information relating to their belief in ented earlier except that one sentence and knowledge of astrology. ("Your sexual adjustment has pres­ Several days after collection of the ented problems for you") was omitted initial data, each subject was presented in order to equate the number of with a booklet containing a "genuine" statements in each horoscope. The horoscope, a randomly selected horoscopes were all presented on ("false") horoscope, and a Barnum- computer print-out paper with the type horoscope. The order of the same layout. Subjects were asked to horoscopes was counterbalanced read and rate each horoscope before across subjects. The genuine horo­ considering the next one. scopes were cast using a modified Of the 52 subjects, 7 stated that version of the HOROSCOPICS program they believed in astrology "strongly," (Copyright 1983, Patched by PAS Inc., 31 "moderately," and 14 "not at all." 306 S. Homewood Ave., Pittsburgh, There was a striking difference in PA 15208) run on an IBM XT personal distribution between male and female computer. The program casts a horo­ subjects. All 7 strong believers were

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FIGURE 1: A typical example of the computerized horoscope used in this study.

Winter 1991 169 female, as were 25 out of 31 moderate so, then people are behaving quite believers. Only 3 of. 14 disbelievers rationally in rating its accuracy so were female (chi-square = 19.3, highly. It is therefore important to df = 2, p < 0.0001). This finding is in show that people rate the Barnum line with previous research showing profile as highly accurate while at the that more women than men believe same time not realizing its general in astrology and are interested in their applicability. Therefore we asked horoscopes (e.g., DeFrance, Fischler, subjects to rate how general they Morin, and Petrossian 1971; Gallup found the horoscopes on a scale from 1975; Sobal and Emmons 1982; Wuth- one to four (1 = very general; now 1976). 2 = quite general; 3 = quite applicable As would be expected, level of to you personally; 4 = very applicable belief was significantly correlated with to you personally). Mean ratings are self-reported frequency of reading presented in Table 2. newspaper horoscopes, with self- Once again, these data were ana­ assessed knowledge of astrology, and lyzed using a two-way analysis of with self-assessed influence of astrol­ variance with type of horoscope and ogy on subjects' everyday lives. The level of belief as factors and, once initial questionnaire also included a again, the only significant effect was question asking subjects to write that the Barnum profile was rated as down their sun sign, ascendant, and more applicable than the other two moon sign, if known. This allowed for (F(2, 98) = 5.35, p < 0.01). The gen­ a maximum score of three on this uine and false horoscopes did not rather crude measure of astrological differ in applicability ratings. knowledge, which was also found to A final question on the question­ correlate significantly with belief. naire asked subjects, for each horo­ The second questionnaire asked scope, if they felt that it constituted subjects to rate how accurate they felt evidence for astrological belief. each horoscope was on a scale from Twenty subjects out of 52 felt that one (not at all accurate) to five (com­ the Barnum profile constituted such pletely accurate). The mean ratings of evidence, whereas only 12 and 11, each group are shown in Table 1. respectively, felt this way about the In order to test the experimental false and genuine horoscopes. These hypotheses, data were subjected to a proportions are significantly dif­ two-way analysis of variance with ferent (Cochran's Q = 10.43, df = 2, type of horoscope and level of belief p < 0.01). as factors. The only significant effect There can be no doubt that this was related to type of horoscope (F(2, experiment offers strong support for 98) = 4.95, p < 0.01), and reflected the the Barnum Hypothesis and no sup­ fact that the Barnum horoscope was port whatsoever for the Coincidence rated as much more accurate than the Hypothesis or the Astrological other two. No significant difference Hypothesis, at least for the sample was found between the ratings of the under study. It might be objected that genuine and false horoscopes and no the group of strong believers was interaction was found between type small in comparison with the other of horoscope and level of belief. two groups; but as examination of the It might be objected that the reason tables reveals, there was no sign of that people so readily accept the a trend in favor of either of the latter Barnum profile is that the statements hypotheses. In fact, this group tended in it actually do apply to everyone. If to be more influenced by the Barnum

170 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 TABLE 1 Means (and Standard Deviations) for Accuracy Ratings (on a Scale of 1 to 5) for Barnum, False, and Genuine Horoscopes

Barnum False Genuine Strong Belief (N = 7) 4.14(1.07) 3.29(1.11) 3.29 (0.76) Moderate Belief (N = 31) 3.77 (0.85) 3.00(1.06) 3.16 (0.90) No Belief (N = 14) 3.29(1.49) 3.07(1.14) 2.79(1.25) Entire Group (N = 52) 3.69(1.09) 3.06(1.07) 3.08 (0.99)

TABLE 2 Means (and Standard Deviations) for Applicability Ratings for Barnum, False, and Genuine Horoscopes

Barnum False Genuine Strong Belief (N = 7) 2.96(1.08) 2.33 (0.96) 2.42 (0.94) ModerateBelief(N = 31) 3.29(1.11) 2.86 (0.90) 2.57 (0.79) No Belief (N = 14) 2.97(1.05) 2.26 (0.93) 2.48 (0.85) Entire Group (N = 52) 2.79(1.19) 2.21 (1.05) 2.21 (1.19) profile than the other two groups, these results too widely. The strong although this effect did not reach believers did claim and demonstrate statistical significance. The nonbeliev- more knowledge of astrology than the ers tended to be least influenced by other two groups, but their level of the Barnum effect. Perhaps with knowledge was still not very great, as larger samples these effects would might be expected in a study where have reached significance. the average age of the subjects was To summarize, the Barnum profile 18. A more refined version of the was rated as most accurate and most Coincidence Hypothesis would recog­ personally applicable by all groups, as nize the many levels of astrological predicted by the Barnum Hypothesis. knowledge attainable and the possibly Furthermore, a significantly greater complex interactions that this could number of subjects felt that the produce in studies like this one when Barnum profile, compared with the applied to different subject groups. other two horoscopes, constituted evi­ At the lowest level are those who dence in favor of astrology. No inter­ profess no knowledge of astrology. action was found between level of Next are those who have some vague belief and type of horoscope, thus notion of their sun-sign and its failing to support the Coincidence associated characteristics, followed by Hypothesis. No support was found for those who may take astrology the Astrological Hypothesis. No group seriously enough to buy popular books was able to differentiate the genuine on the subject. The Coincidence from false horoscopes, which were Hypothesis as outlined earlier in this both rated as less accurate and less article applies to these three levels. applicable than the Barnum profile. However, beyond sun-sign astrology For this sample, then, the Barnum we have what Dean (1986-87) refers effect offered the best explanation of to as "the real thing," involving a belief in astrology. However, we may consultation between a professional need to be cautious in generalizing astrologer and a client in which the

Winter 1991 171 astrologer's interpretation is based Americans express belief in astrology. upon as many as 40 interacting chart Gallup Poll. Institute of Public Opinion. October 19. factors, of which sun-sign is only one. Gauquelin, M 1979. Dreams and Illusions of As Eysenck and Nias (1982) discuss, Astrology. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus it is possible that those who are very Books. knowledgeable would not be so influ­ Goldberg, S. 1979. Is astrology a science? The enced by consideration of the sun- Humanist, 39(2):9-16. Jerome, L. 1977. Astrology Disproved. Buffalo, sign, recognizing instead that "real" N.Y.: Prometheus Books. astrology is a much more complex Kelly, I. W. 1979. Astrology and science: A enterprise. critical examination. Psychological Reports, The fact remains, however, that 44:1231-1240. Rosen, G. M. 1975. Effects of source prestige most people who profess a belief in on subjects' acceptance of the Barnum astrology, whether strong or moder­ effect: Psychologist versus astrologer. ate, do not possess much knowledge journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychol­ of the subject. It is of great interest ogy, 43:95. to understand the factors that produce Snyder, C. R. 1974. Why horoscopes are true: The effect of specificity on acceptance of belief in such individuals, and the astrological interpretations. Journal of current study strongly suggests that Clinical Psychology, 30:577-580. we need look no further than the basic Snyder, C. R., D. K. Larsen, and L. J. Bloom. Barnum effect. 1976. Acceptance of general personality interpretations prior to and after receiv­ ing diagnostic feedback supposedly based References on psychological, graphological, and astrological assessment procedures. Jour­ Culver, R., and P. Ianna. 1988. Astrology: nal of Clinical Psychology, 32:258-265. True or False? Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Snyder, C. R., R. J. Shenkel, and C. R. Books. Lowery. 1977. Acceptance of personality Dean, G. 1986-87. Does astrology need to interpretations: The "Barnum effect" and be true? Part 1: A look at the real thing. beyond. Journal of Consulting and Clinical SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 11:166-184. Psychology, 45:104-114. . 1987. Does astrology need to be true? Sobal, J., and C. F. Emmons. 1982. Patterns Part 2: The answer is no. SKEPTICAL of belief in religious, psychic, and other INQUIRER, 11:257-273. paranormal phenomena. Zetetic Scholar, Dean, G., and A. Mather. 1977. Recent 9:7-17. Advances in hiatal Astrology: A Critical Startup, M. J. 1984. The Validity of Astro­ Review 7900-1976. Subiaco, Western logical Theory as Applied to Personality, Australia: Analogic. with Special Reference to the Angular DeFrance, P., C. Fiscbler, E. Morin, and L. Separation Between Planets. Ph.D. thesis, Petrossian. 1971. Le Retour des Astro- Goldsmiths' College, London University; logues. Paris: Cahiers du Club Nouvel 350 references. Observateur. Sundberg, N. D. 1955. The acceptance of Dickson, D. H., and I. W. Kelly. 1985. The "fake" versus "bona fide" personality test 'Barnum effect' in personality assess­ interpretations. Journal of Abnormal and ment: A review of the literature. Psycho­ Social Psychology, 50:145-147. logical Reports, 57:367-382. Tyson, G. A. 1982. Why people perceive Eysenck, H. J., and D. K. B. Nias. 1982. horoscopes as being true: A review. Astrology: Science or Superstition? London: Bulletin of the British Psychological Society, Temple Smith. 35:186-188. Forer, B. R. 1949. The fallacy of personal Wuthnow, R. 1976. Astrology and marginal- validation: A classroom demonstration of ity. Journal for the Scientific Study of gullibility. Journal of Abnormal and Social Religion, 15:157-168. Psychology, 44:118-123. Furnham, A., and S. Schofield. 1987. Accept­ Address correspondence to Dr. Chris­ ing personality test feedback: A review of the Barnum effect. Current Psycholog­ topher C. French, Dept. of Psychology, ical Research & Reviews, 6:162-178. University of London Goldsmiths' College, Gallup, G. H. 1975. Thirty-two million New Cross, London SE14 6NW, U.K.

172 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 A Test of Clairvoyance Using the Method Of Signal Detection

STUART J. McKELVIE and HELENE GAGNE

espite years of intensive research, ESP (extrasensory perception) experiments Dhave not produced a finding that meets the scientific criterion of replication under controlled laboratory conditions (Marks 1986). Although some positive results have been reported, the methods by which they were =£% obtained and statistically analyzed have been criticized (Diaconis 1978; Hansel 1980; Hines Students classified as 1988; Hyman 1989; Alcock 1990). believers or nonbelievers in Recently, in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, D. D. the paranormal were tested Jensen (1989) has suggested that modern twice in a signal-detection psychophysics offers a paradigm for testing task. In one of the two paranormal perceptions. In the method of signal conditions (clairvoyance), detection, the observers are presented with a no signal was ever given, series of trials in which a signal does or does but half of the trials were not occur and, for each trial, are asked to state randomly designated by whether or not they detect a signal. At the end computer as containing of the experiment, each response can be "pseudosignals."In both the classified as a "hit" (responding yes when a signal signal and no-signal is present), "false-alarm" (responding yes when conditions, detection a signal is absent), "miss" (responding no to a performance was similar for signal), or "correct rejection" (responding no to the two groups, and no no signal). (See Table 1.) As Jensen explains, evidence of clairvoyance the beauty of this method is that it permits the was found. experimenter to go beyond the simple hit rate, which might be taken to measure accuracy of detection, and to calculate two measures, d' and beta, which respectively provide uncontami- nated measures of sensitivity to the signal and the degree of response bias (the general tendency to say yes or no). Surprisingly, we have not been able to locate any reports in which this method has been

Winter 1991 173 TABLE 1 Classification of Responses in the Signal Detection Task Response

Trial Yes No

Signal Present Hit Miss Signal Absent False-alarm Correct Rejection applied to test ESP in a laboratory of their scores on the Survey of Para­ setting. We accomplished it here by normal Beliefs (Tobacyk and Milford testing subjects in two conditions. In 1983) from a larger sample of 136 the standard signal-detection condi­ undergraduates. The scores of believ­ tion, signals were presented on half ers and nonbelievers fell in the upper of the trials. In the ESP or clairvoyance and lower 30 percent of the original condition, no signal was ever pres­ distribution, respectively. ented. However, in both conditions, Design and Procedure. Each subject subjects were told to expect a signal was tested individually on an Apple half of the time; and, in the clairvoy­ He computer in both conditions, with ance condition, half of the trials were half receiving the signal condition first designated at random by computer as (200 trials) and half the no-signal "pseudosignal" trials. Thus it was (clairvoyance) condition first (200 possible to calculate d' for each subject trials). On each trial, a series of 20 in both conditions. Clairvoyance letters flashed rapidly at random loca­ would allow a subject to "know" when tions on the screen. On no-signal the pseudosignal trial occurred; and trials, the letters were all Os; but on so, if clairvoyance were present, the signal trials, 19 were Os and one was mean value for d' would exceed zero a Q. Subjects were told that a Q would in the no-signal condition. be presented on half of the trials and In addition, the factor of belief in that they should respond after each the paranormal was included, since trial by pressing one key if they de­ Palmer (1971) claims that the data tected it and another one if they did support a small, but genuine, super­ not. The computer program (Perera iority of believers over nonbelievers 1983) converted each subject's re­ in ESP tasks (the "sheep-goat" effect). sponses to hits, false-alarms, d', and However, there is also evidence that beta. believers subjectively rate their per­ formances as higher than those of Results and Discussion others (Blackmore and Troscianko 1985; Benassi, Sweeney, and Drevno Table 2 displays the mean scores in 1979). It might therefore be expected each condition for believers and that believers would respond more nonbelievers. Two-way analyses of leniently (decreasing beta) than non- variance (Condition x Belief) were believers, particularly in the clair­ performed on each of the four mea­ voyance condition. sures. In each case, the only significant Subjects. Subjects were 53 under­ effect was Condition: F(l, 51) = 30.11, graduates classified as believers 14.37, 104.42, and 24.06, for hits, (N = 26) or nonbelievers (N = 27). The false-alarms, d', and beta, respectively, two groups were chosen on the basis (p < .01 in all cases).

174 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 TABLE 2 Mean Scores on Each Measure in Each Condition

Condition Hits False-alarms d' Beta Signal Believers 51.3 33.1 0.48 1.15 Nonbelievers 49.4 31.6 0.50 1.10 No-Signal (Clairvoyance) Believers 36.0 36.4 -0.01 1.00 Nonbelievers 40.0 40.0 0.00 0.97

It can be seen that there were more Troscianko 1985). The present result hits and fewer false-alarms, leading to does not support the contention that higher d' scores in the signal condition the effect simply reflects general than in the no-signal (clairvoyance) response leniency. condition, showing that subjects were This application of the signal- more accurate at detecting signals in detection method provides no evi­ the signal condition. Moreover, in the dence of clairvoyance in either believ­ no-signal condition the mean d' score ers or nonbelievers and found similar was 0 for both believers and non- performance measures (d' and beta) believers. Although the percentage of for believers and nonbelievers in both hits in the no-signal condition was 35 signal and no-signal conditions, with to 40 percent, suggesting some ability both groups showing sensitivity in the to detect the pseudosignals, it was signal condition and zero sensitivity accompanied by a similar percentage in the no-signal condition. of false-alarms. This implies that hits on signal trials did not necessarily indicate true detections. Hence, d' = 0, References a result that is consistent with other Alcock, J. 1990. Science and Supernature, laboratory attempts to demonstrate Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. ESP, and inconsistent with the sheep- Benassi, V. A., P. D. Sweeney, and G. E. goat effect (Palmer 1971). Drevno. 1979. Mind over matter: Per­ ceived success at psychokinesis. Journal Finally, there was no evidence that of Personality and Social Psychology, believers were more lenient than 37:1377-1386. nonbelievers in responding, since the Blackmore, S., and T. Troscianko. 1985. mean values for beta were similar for Belief in the paranormal: Probability judgements, illusory control, and the the two groups in both the signal and "chance baseline shift." British journal of clairvoyance conditions. Previous Psychology, 76:459-468. demonstrations (Benassi et al. 1979; Diaconis, P. 1978. Statistical problems in ESP Blackmore and Troscianko 1985) of research. Science, 201:131-136. greater leniency in believers were Hansel, C. E. M. 1980. ESP and Parapsychol­ ogy: A Critical Re-Evaluation. Buffalo, found for post hoc estimates of N.Y.: Prometheus Books. performance in psychokinesis tasks, Hines, T. 1988. Pseudoscience and the Para­ suggesting that the effect may be normal. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. confined to subjective evaluations, to Hyman, R. 1989. The Elusive Quarry. a task involving perceived control, or Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. to both, i.e., to situations involving an Jensen, D. D. 1989. Pathologies of science, precognition, and modern psychophysics. illusion of control (Blackmore and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 13:147-160.

Winter 1991 175 Marks, D. F. 1986. Investigating the para­ instrument development and implications normal. Nature, 320:119-124. for personality functioning. Journal of Palmer, J. 1971. Scoring in ESP tasks as a Personality and Social Psychology, 44:1029- function of belief in ESP. Journal of the 1037. American Society for Psychical Research, 65:373-408. Perera, T. B. 1983. Signal Detection (computer Stuart McKelvie is in the Department of program). New York: Life Science Asso­ Psychology, Bishop's University, Lennox- ciates. (Ed. by Dirk Houben, Hunter College of CUNY.) ville, Quebec ]1M 1Z7, Canada. Helene Tobacyk, J., and G. Milford. 1983. Belief in Gagne is now with the Ontario Prevention paranormal phenomena: Assessment Clearing House in Toronto.

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176 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Intercessory Prayer As Medical Treatment? An Inquiry

JEFF WITMER and MICHAEL ZIMMERMAN

he use of prayer as a medical treatment has been in the news quite a bit of late, with Tthe government successfully prosecuting parents whose avoidance of traditional treat­ ment in favor of prayer led to the death of their sick minor children. The critical question that must be addressed to parents, doctors, and the courts alike is: Can prayer have beneficial medical effects? While this question is by no means new, it has received surprisingly little A review of the critical evaluation over the years. Prayer can be divided into two types: personal sparse literature and intercessory. The former occurs when and a survey of individuals pray on their own behalf, while the latter occurs when a prayer is offered on behalf editors of 38 of another individual. Personal prayer might medical journals well have a therapeutic effect by elevating the psychological state of the person praying, raises troubling perhaps in much the same way Norman Cousins concerns. (1979) claims humor works. Intercessory prayer, if the targeted person is aware that he or she is being spoken for, might yield similar psycho­ logical benefit arising from the knowledge that others care deeply enough to pray. Much more interesting for study are the possible therapeutic effects of intercessory prayer when the person being prayed for remains entirely unaware of the prayers. One of the first to discuss the possible medical use of this type of prayer was Sir Francis Galton (1883), who hypothesized that monarchs were far more likely to be the objects of prayer than were commoners. If intercessory prayer actually

Winter 1991 177 provided medical benefits, Galton sis is not persuasive and there is no hypothesized, then the former should way to assess the efficacy of the live longer than the latter, all else prayers. Procedurally, Byrd reported being equal. Although all else clearly that the intercessors were given was not equal, no trend in the hy­ pertinent updates on the conditions of pothesized direction was found. the patients for whom they were A century after Galton's work was praying. Such interim reports are at published, Randolph Byrd (1988) odds with the usual double-blind published a paper in the Southern protocol. Medical Journal purporting to demon­ Because Byrd's results were intri­ strate the significant therapeutic value guing, if not fully substantiated, we of intercessory prayer in a coronary- began to wonder if any other studies care unit of San Francisco General attempted controlled examinations of Hospital. Summaries of Byrd's claims the effects of intercessory prayer. An were published in the popular press exhaustive literature search turned up and prompted considerable attention. only two additional papers (Joyce and Using a double-blind design, Byrd Weldon 1965; Collipp 1969), neither randomly assigned patients entering of which provided statistical support the unit to either a control or an for the efficacy of intercessory prayer. experimental group. Members of both Joyce and Weldon studied 19 matched groups were given standard medical pairs of patients with rheumatic care, but only members of the exper­ disease in a double-blind, randomized imental group were prayed for daily trial. In the 12 pairs for which there by volunteers from local churches. was a difference in patient response, Patients were unaware that they were the treatment patient (the one for part of a study. At the conclusion of whom others prayed as part of the the study Byrd assessed the course of trial) fared better than the control treatment for each patient and con­ patient seven times, while the control cluded that members of the experi­ patient fared better five times. Col- mental group fared significantly lipp's (1969) study reported a trial in better. which church members prayed for ten Byrd's paper, while piquing our children with leukemia, who were interest in the general field of inter­ compared with eight control children cessory prayer, raised a number of with the disease. The difference in statistical and procedural questions in survival between the two groups was our minds. Statistically, Byrd's paper not statistically significant. is unsatisfactory because it did not Given the widespread belief in the treat patients as individual entities. In power of prayer, we were quite a multivariate analysis of complica­ surprised to find that such a dearth tions arising after hospital admittance, of controlled, randomized studies Byrd found that his experimental exists in the literature. There are a subjects suffered statistically fewer number of reasons why this might be complications than did his controls. the case. One possibility is the "file Unfortunately, many of the compli­ drawer" phenomenon: researchers, cations listed are not independent of knowing that journals favor signifi­ one another so that a single patient cant positive findings, might not was more likely to manifest a range submit work failing to show statisti­ of symptoms rather than just one. cally significant differences between Because of this problem Byrd's analy­ control and experimental groups.

178 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 And, even if such work is submitted, others from persons quite angered editors might reject it because of the that anyone would conduct a scientific lack of statistical significance. Such a trial involving prayer, not a single negative publication bias has been well piece of evidence of any controlled documented in other fields (e.g., see trials beyond the three we had already Begg and Berlin 1988). Furthermore, discovered was mentioned. editors wise enough to know the value Rather than hearing from persons of reporting carefully conducted who believe in the benefits of inter­ scientific work, even if it shows no cessory prayer as a result of a scientific statistically significant differences study, we heard a series of anecdotes. between control and experimental Some believe because they have "seen groups, might reject manuscripts it work" (e.g., they know someone dealing with intercessory prayer, who recovered from serious illness be­ thinking that studies of supernatural cause of prayer). Others have been power are inherently nonscientific. told that prayer works. And time and Still other editors might shy away time again we heard from persons from publishing work simply because who, although they had conducted no it is controversial. Indeed, when the controlled studies themselves, gave us second edition of Galton's book was the names of others who they thought published, the material on interces­ had done so. We pursued each of these sory prayer was omitted for this leads only to find people who had reason (Pearson, 1924-1930, vol. 3B). conducted no trials, but "knew" of Given all of these possibilities, we people elsewhere who they thought anticipated that a sizable body of had run controlled studies, and so on. unpublished work in this area might Sometimes, amusingly, these trails exist. In an attempt to tap into some went full circle. It is worth noting that of this material, we wrote to the the vast majority of respondents were editors of 38 medical journals, asking either practicing or retired medical if their journal had ever published a doctors. paper on the subject. We also asked Our concerns are twofold. One is whether the journal had ever received, that advocates of any medical treat­ but rejected, a manuscript on the topic. ment have an obligation to conduct Finally, we asked editors to publish a appropriate studies before making request for information. That request extensive claims regarding effective­ asked readers to contact us if they ness. In the case of intercessory were aware of any controlled studies, prayer, these studies have yet to be either published or unpublished, undertaken. Note that we are not assessing the efficacy of intercessory making a statement here about prayer. It also invited readers to send whether or not intercessory prayer is us the names of persons who might effective. (Indeed, while one of us is know of such material. an atheist, the other is a Christian.) The responses from the editors Neither are we advocating that clinical were unequivocal. None of those who trials of intercessory prayer be con­ responded had either published or ducted—we are not the ones who rejected a single manuscript on the claim that intercessory prayer is an topic of intercessory prayer. The effective medical treatment. Rather, response to our published queries was we demonstrate the present lack of also unequivocal. Although we scientific evidence supporting the received a barrage of letters and phone claim that intercessory prayer is calls, some from firm "believers," beneficial.

Winter 1991 179 Our other concern is deeper and to those editors who took the time to more troubling. All of us are tempted respond to our survey, to those who to take our own limited experiences published our request for information, and necessarily (because we are and to those respondents who took human) biased observations and the­ the time to contact us. ories seriously. We also tend to rely on authority in making decisions References about the worth of various methods Begg, C. B. and J. A. Berlin. 1988. Publication and agents. In the area of intercessory bias: A problem in interpreting medical prayer, we see people confusing data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, anecdotal evidence with scientific 151:419-463. research. In fact, many people were Byrd, R. C. 1988. Positive therapeutic effects very eager to tell us why they think of intercessory prayer in a coronary unit population. Southern Medical Journal, that intercessory prayer is therapeu­ 81:826-829. tic, but were quite disappointed (and Collipp, P. J. 1969. The efficacy of prayer: occasionally quite distressed) when we A triple-blind study. Medical Times, told them that we were looking for 97:201-204. evidence from controlled scientific Cousins, N. 1979. Anatomy of an Illness. W. W. Norton: New York. studies. Such confusion should alarm Galton, F. 1883. Inquiries into Human Faculty not only all scientists, but anyone and Its Development. London: Macmillan. concerned about the health and safety (Second edition published in 1907 by of others. Dent.) Joyce, C. R. B., and R. M. C. Weldon. 1965. It is particularly troubling that The objective efficacy of prayer: A medical practitioners seem so willing double-blind clinical trial. Journal of to confuse anecdote and verifiable Chronic Diseases, 18:367-377. Pearson, K. 1924-1930. The Life, Letters and pattern. That such was the case might Labours of Francis Galton. Cambridge, well point out a real shortcoming of U.K.: Cambridge University Press. medical education. Jeff Witmer is a statistician in the Acknowledgments Department of Mathematics, and Michael Zimmerman is associate dean of the We thank Abby Frucht for suggesting College of Arts and Sciences and a improvements in an earlier draft of professor in the Department of Biology, our manuscript. We are also grateful Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH 44074.

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180 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Book Reviews

Examining Another UFO True Story'

Out There: The Government's Secret Quest for Extraterrestrials. By Howard Blum. Simon & Schuster, New York, 1990. 288 pp. Cloth, $19.95.

PHILIP J. KLASS

n the opening page of Out There: U.S. Space Command. The Government's Secret Quest for The Navy Space Surveillance Sys­ I Extraterrestrials, former New York tem is an "electronic fence" that Times reporter Howard Blum, whose stretches across the southern states earlier books include one on the from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans. Walker spy family, assures his readers: It was built in the late 1950s, following "This is a true story. I verified every the launch of the first Soviet satellites, name, every incident, date and con­ to maintain a running inventory of all versation." The publisher's blurb on objects in space—both satellites and the review copy characterizes the space debris—that pass over the book as a "startling expose that reads United States. with the dramatic narrative drive of As Blum describes the incident, a novel but... it is absolutely true!" Navy Commander Sheila Mondran The cornerstone of Blum's book is was on duty in Space Command's his claim that in early 1987 the underground command center, deep Pentagon's Defense Intelligence inside Cheyenne Mountain near Colo­ Agency (DIA) secretly launched a new rado Springs, when a computer dis­ investigation into UFOs—Unidenti­ play showed that a strange, fied Flying Objects. Approximately 18 uncatalogued object was passing years earlier the Pentagon had through the electronic fence. Accord­ announced that after two decades it ing to Blum, the object was perform­ was closing down the Air Force's ing "crash dives followed by sudden investigatory effort because it had climbs at astonishing speeds." found no evidence that any UFOs Had Blum checked, he would have were either extraterrestrial or Soviet discovered that the Navy's electronic craft. fence could not possibly detect such Blum claims the Pentagon's new maneuvers—as I earlier learned when interest in UFOs was triggered by an I wrote a technical article on the extraordinary incident shortly before system. Furthermore, the system does Christmas 1986. It allegedly involved not provide a "real-time" display in the the Navy Space Surveillance System, Space Defense Center, which Blum a key element in the global Space claims Mondran was viewing. Surveillance Network operated by the Blum's dramatic scenario of events

Winter 1991 181 alleged to have triggered the Penta­ DIA intelligence analyst with a long­ gon's renewed interest in UFOs is time interest in UFOs, according to riddled with errors. For example, he Blum, managed to convince his agency reports that Commander Mondran, that "the time had at last come to after parking her car outside convene a top-secret working group Cheyenne Mountain, rode a military to investigate the possibility that bus inside and "took a polished steel extraterrestrials were making contact elevator . . . descending almost 2,500 with this planet." feet." There is no such elevator—as Although Blum claims to have I know from my several visits to the talked briefly with Colonel Phillips by underground center. The only eleva­ telephone, the only officer with that tor is a three-story freight elevator. name who shows up in Army records The military bus would have de­ is a lieutenant colonel who retired livered Commander Mondran to the three years before the purported UFO "ground floor" of the command center group was formed. Pentagon tele­ inside Cheyenne Mountain. She phone directories for 1987-88 show an would have walked up one flight of "H. E. Phillips," but he is a Navy stairs to the Space Defense Center, commander, not an Army colonel. To which is on the second floor, not the avoid any possibility of Pentagon third floor as Blum reports. (Blum "disinformation," I checked the Uni­ claims he called Space Command's versity of Southern Illinois, in Car- public-affairs office to ask which floor bondale, where Blum says Phillips it was on as an example of his graduated with a degree in engineer­ meticulous research.) ing. The university could not find any In response to my request to Space record of a Harold E. Phillips. Command's public-affairs office, According to Blum, the most vex­ Major Tom Niemann told me he could ing problem that confronted Phillips find no record that a Commander as chief of the UFO Working Group Sheila Mondran had ever been sta­ was to find a "highly promising" UFO tioned there. When he checked with report for the panel to investigate. the Navy, Niemann told me, they Blum writes: "For a time, the colonel could not find any record of an officer was convinced he had found his in­ named Sheila Mondran. vestigative target in Gulf Breeze, Blum describes experiments Florida. The sightings in this southern allegedly conducted by the DIA using town were shared by a variety of wit­ "remote viewers" ("psychics"), who he nesses, and there was even a blurred claims demonstrated the ability to film of what many responsible ob­ "see," and thus pinpoint, the location servers swore was a UFO. It turned of submerged Soviet and U.S. subma­ out the Air Force was testing a classi­ rines. When the DIA learned of the fied low-flying plane in the area." extraordinary UFO incident, Blum This explanation is seriously claims, it brought in three psychics to flawed. The object that appeared on "see" retroactively what the object Ed Walters's Polaroid prints was a looked like when it penetrated the saucer-shaped object with illuminated electronic fence 48 hours earlier. portholes—hardly an appropriate All three of the psychics drew design for a "low-flying surveillance sketches of "rounded, wingless air­ plane." This explanation also is ruled craft," Blum tells his readers. Armed out if one accepts Walters's claim that with these sketches of flying saucers, he saw four-foot high creatures being Army Colonel Harold E. Phillips, a "beamed down" from the UFO.

182 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 There was a slight blurring of the Eventually Colonel Phillips learns background in a few of Walters's of the "Top Secret MJ-12 papers," photos, due to camera motion during made public by three UFOlogists in the one-second time-exposure used the spring of 1987, which claim that for the night photos, but the image the U.S. government recovered a of the UFO was not blurred. This crashed saucer and several alien bodies logically prompted even some long­ some 40 years earlier. If the MJ-12 time "UFO-believers" to conclude that claims were true, clearly somebody the photos were hoaxed double expo­ forgot to brief top DIA officials who sures made with a small model. had approved the creation of the new Recently, a small model flying saucer UFO Working Group. Blum provides similar to the UFO in the Walters an evenhanded pro/con treatment, photos was discovered hidden in the indicating he himself is unsure attic of the house in which he lived whether the papers are authentic. when he took his UFO photos. I appear in Blum's book as the Next, according to Blum, Colonel person whose research indicates that Phillips's interest focused on reports the MJ-12 papers are counterfeit. of night sightings of a giant UFO Blum offers a not-unflattering sum­ reported by many observers in Hud­ mary of my career as a technical son Valley communities north of New journalist and skeptical UFO- York City. "But then, just when investigator. I was rather surprised at Colonel Phillips was on the verge of his reference to my "jaunty, pencil- recommending that the Working thin figure," because we have never Group dispatch a photographic team" met and I have been 10 pounds to the area, according to Blum, he overweight for 30 years. (We did talk received a newspaper report that the by telephone on several occasions.) I giant UFO was nothing more than a counted 24 other factual errors in the small group of small-aircraft pilots five pages in which Blum highlights engaged in a prank. The hoax had been my career. featured in the November 1984 issue During my January 20, 1989, of Discover magazine—more than telephone conversation with Blum, he three years earlier. admitted: "All I have now is a nice, Phillips finally discovers a "perfect weird story, and you can poke a candidate" for the UFO Working thousand holes in it." That aptly Group to investigate: Elmwood, a summarizes the tale he tells in Out small town in central Wisconsin. There, which could more accurately be Elmwood's citizens often report seeing titled "Spaced Out." UFOs, and its mayor had announced plans to build a $50-million UFO landing site. Blum claims that Phillips A veteran aerospace journalist in sent two covert agents to Elmwood, Washington, D.C., Philip ]. Klass is also which prompted Blum's own visit. He the author of UFO Abductions: A arrived in time for Elmwood's annual Dangerous Game, UFOs: The Public "UFO Days" festival and devotes Deceived, and other books critically about one-sixth of his book to his examining UFO claims. This review first interviews with local citizens. appeared in the Los Angeles Times.

Winter 1991 183 Physics, Psychics, And a Hidden Agenda

Physics and Psychics: The Search for a World Beyond the Senses. By Victor J. Stenger. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, N.Y., 1990. 323 pp. Cloth, $22.95.

STEVEN HOFFMASTER

ne seldom sees a book as uneven as Victor Stenger's OPhysics and Psychics. Parts of it provide unique insights into the natural world. And other parts can most charitably be called biased diatribes. I had very much looked forward to reading this book. I enjoyed Milton A. Rothman's A Physicist's Guide to Skepticism and thought his use of physical principles to analyze psychic claims was quite clear. After all, there is just too much unquestioned accep­ tance of silly paranormal claims. Another book, with a different per­ spective, looking at a scientific apprai­ sal of the pseudoscientific couldn't hurt. Or could it? My problems start with the title. The book is indeed about physics and psychics. It also makes frequent refer­ ence to the history and philosophy of Stenger introduced it only to use as science and to religion (in just over a background against which to judge 300 pages). All of those topics have psychic claims. If so, it is one-sided and been covered in far longer treatises, selectively presented to prove points which are themselves superficial. that are not as universally clear as It is no surprise that what the Stenger might portray them. author does best is the physics. As a For instance, in particle physics particle physicist he constantly uses there are now three different neutri­ the standard model as an example to nos (plus three anti-neutrinos), three "prove" his many claims. Much of his other leptons (plus three correspond­ presentation of the standard model ing anti-leptons), six proposed quarks appears in Chapter 2. This presenta­ (and, yes, six anti-quarks), eight tion, of course, is correct. But it is not gluons, a photon, perhaps a graviton, particularly well motivated, nor does W and Z bosons, and . . . Well you it do much to portray the excitement get the picture. Yes the system works of the field in particular, or of science better than any other option we now in general. It can be argued that have (with at least 25 fundamental

184 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 particles and more anti-particles). have been programmed (pp. 13, 29, How simple a system is this? Occam's 301) to make it so. (Sounds sort of Razor has a few dents in it. And I have Lysenko-ish, doesn't it?) Further, he not even mentioned Squarks, Slep- argues, all this is consistent with the tons, and Photinos. standard model and materialism. This By far the best section in this book may be correct, but it seems to me is Chapter 10, "The Spooks of Quan­ that there is little hard data for such tum Mechanics." In it one finds an a conclusion. excellent summary of the most widely His selections from the history and accepted interpretation of quantum philosophy of science often misrepre­ mechanics, the experimental verifica­ sent the works from which they are tions of Bell's Inequality, and its very drawn. One quickly learns that there serious challenge to what we would is no uniquely correct interpretation call macroscopic reality. In particular, in these fields as there is in physics. in this chapter there is a fair consid­ There are many pathways to go from eration given to other reasoned inter­ the initial development of an idea to pretations of QM theories. The its final culmination. This is an idea author clearly shows that the argu­ often lost on those who are closely ments often heard from paranormal- involved in physics and who have lived ists about the connections between in a world of correct and incorrect psychic communication and quantum theories. To cite a few examples; mechanics are based on what Michael Thomas Kuhn (p. 62) was in a Ph.D. Radner and Daisie Radner call "spur­ program in physics; Maxwell spent a ious similarity." The current interpre­ great deal of his time trying to evolve tation of quantum mechanics is not a functioning mechanical ether to consistent with superluminal para­ explain how his electromagnetic normal claims. waves traveled through "empty" space There is some interesting specula­ (p. 258); and to group Stephen Hawk­ tion on intelligence and evolution in ing with Fritjof Capra (p. 268) in Chapter 13, "Emergence." And, in discussing "their" theories of the uni­ general, where Stenger is writing verse is patently unfair. Finally, about physical science, the presenta­ Stenger's use of the term anomaly is tions are clear, concise, and relevant, often itself an anomaly. However, the further he gets from When Physics and Psychics deals physics, the weaker and less convin­ with psychics it does so on a fairly cing his arguments become. superficial level. Although most of While attempting to explain how Chapters 5 through 9 are a discussion one goes from the microscopic world and analysis of psychic claims, seldom of quantum mechanics and the stand­ is any particular claim given more than ard model to that of the macroscopic three or four paragraphs. And much world of our everyday experience, of that is drawn directly from other Stenger correctly points out that as sources where there is a much better of now we cannot always clearly draw presentation of the material. On the direct scientific links from one to the other hand, perhaps only the general other. In an attempt to avoid resorting background material is needed to to anything sounding even remotely show that the case for psychic phe­ mystical, he claims that much of our nomena is weak. To Stenger's credit, now counterproductive behavior, each chapter has an extensive listing both religious and secular, can be of references for the reader who explained by assuming that our genes wishes to pursue a particular topic.

Winter 1991 185 However, it seems to me that fewer In a time when it is difficult to get topics, covered in more detail, would students interested in science, such have allowed the author to more ably arguments are clearly counterproduc­ demonstrate his contentions about tive. To say that science and religion psychic research. are inherent antagonists seems a bit All of the concerns above are of an overstatement. And to group relatively minor when compared to everyone who believes in God as the not-so-hidden agenda of the members of one grand category who author: to show that all religion is we could better do without is just unnecessary. People have been dis­ wrong. I have known too many fine cussing religion for centuries. The people who were both deeply religious materialism versus religion argu­ and superior physicists to have any ments have been made over and over real sympathy for this argument. (I again. The fact that they are still being have also known quite a few mate­ made would seem to indicate neither rialists who were just plain jerks.) side has an overwhelmingly convin­ If Stenger's intentions were to cing case. To paraphrase Stenger: favorably present the case against because the standard model does not psychic phenomena and to promote require a spiritual existence, and there the materialist view of nature, he is no material indication of anything would have been more effective spiritual, Occam's Razor forces us to leaving out the religious polemic and conclude that there is no God. He then allowing the readers to reach their proceeds to link all psychic proponents own conclusions. with all types of religion and to claim that there is no material evidence for any of them and hence they should Steven Hoffmaster is a professor of physics be jettisoned as unneeded human at Gonzaga University, Spokane, relics of a less objective era. Washington.

Exploring, and Solving, Supernatural Mysteries

Secrets of the Supernatural. By Joe Nickell with John F. Fischer. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, N.Y., 1988. 200 pp. Cloth, $19.95.

ROBERT A. BAKER

eaders unfamilar with the work investigated and solved over the past of Joe Nickell, a CSICOP Fellow decade. R and one of the nation's premier Best known perhaps for his Inquest skeptical investigators, can quickly on the Shroud of Turin and his accurate overcome this deficiency by reading prediction of the shroud's age, Nickell Secrets of the Supernatural, a collection also turned his considerable Sherlock- of ten occult mysteries Nickell has ian skills to the reputed ghost in

186 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Toronto's MacKenzie house, the tigator and professional magician— riddle of the Crystal Skull, so-called goes to extreme lengths to avoid. The spirit pictures produced by "spirit true investigator, in his view, is as guides," the mysterious disappearance bias-free as possible and functions of Oliver Larch (or Lerch) who sup­ between the two extremes. In his posedly "walked off the face of the words, "To him, or her, mysterious earth," a fascinating case of identical phenomena are not to be uncritically twins known as "the two Will Wests," heralded as proof of transcendent a group of psychic prospectors "witch­ realms, neither are they annoyances ing" for hidden gold, and the case of to be dismissed or debunked at all some mysteriously moving coffins in costs. Instead, to the investigator, a vault on the island of Barbados. In mysteries are to be solved." collaboration with John F. Fischer, a This sort of objectivity is the forensic analyst in Orlando, Florida, hallmark of all scholarly and scientific Nickell also looked into an alleged inquiry, and Nickell's work should be "bleeding door" in an eastern Ken­ studied closely and carefully by all tucky farmhouse, the miraculous students and researchers planning image of the Virgin Mary in a church investigations of their own. Finally, at Guadalupe, and a number of cases Nickell is wise enough to warn readers of "spontaneous human combustion." against "extrapolating too much from Each of the ten cases in Secrets reads the few examples herein. They do not like a well-crafted detective story, and represent proof against all 'super­ the reader derives the same sort of natural' occurrences. . . . The unique satisfaction here that comes from any nature of some of the solutions urges mystery's resolution. Although the that we investigate mysteries on a ten cases represent only a small sam­ case-by-case basis." Like all first-rate ple of the literally hundreds of super­ investigators, Nickell in these various natural claims, they are clearly cases employs a wide range of representative enough to show what methods and techniques: microchem- happens when such paranormal ical analyses, witness interviews, conundrums are subjected to careful controlled experiments, site inspec­ scientific scrutiny. Without exception, tions, historical research, physical they surrender their mystery to the measures, folklorist and iconographic probings of the investigators and turn studies, instrumental analyses, spe­ out to have simple, natural explana­ cialists and experts—whatever is tions after all. necessary or required to get the job In both his Introduction and an done. Afterword, Nickell provides some Many alleged scientists feel the useful words of advice for all would- investigation of unusual or preternat­ be explorers of the occult jungle. First ural phenomena like those reported in he cautions against excessive credul­ this book is unworthy of their con­ ity: "While we should be open to 'new' cern. If we are to win the battle for ideas, we should not wish to become the public mind, however, such an quite as open as, say, a refuse can." attitude must be rejected. As Nickell Nor, conversely, should we be so notes, "So profound are the implica­ closed-minded that we reject, out-of- tions of these popularly perceived hand and beforehand, the phenomena experiences, that the question is not we purport to study. This is the whether such phenomena will be in­ attitude of the "debunker" and one vestigated but how." With researchers that Nickell—a former private inves­ like Nickell and Fischer on the prowl

Winter 1991 187 the proponents of paranormal marvels Robert A. Baker is professor emeritus of are, admittedly, nervous. Poor super- psychology at the University of Kentucky, nature has fewer secrets to protect. Lexington, and the author of What Is But don't despair, ordinary Nature has Hypnosis? recently published by Prome­ an endless supply! theus Books.

Therapists' Dubious Roles With Abductees' Encounters: A Psychologist Reveals Case Studies of Abductions by Extraterrestrials. By Edith Fiore, Ph.D. Doubleday, New York, 1989, 342 pp. Cloth, $17.95.

J. R. COREY

ou may have been abducted by events "buried in the subconscious aliens and not know it! Accord­ mind" and, second, the Freudian Ying to California clinical psychol­ dogma that discovering causes of ogist Edith Fiore, some of the ten most some psychological or behavioral common signs of alien abduction in­ disorder ensures a cure for it. clude: "inability to account for periods The "subconscious mind" is not a of time," "waking up with unusual scientifically valuable or falsifiable body sensations," and "appearance of concept. There is no proof that you mysterious marks on the body." or I have—or don't have—a "subcon­ Sounds like common occurrences for scious." All we know is that some Uncle Ferd, who was frequently memories are difficult to recall. There abducted by Jack Daniels or Jim Beam. is no evidence, beyond anecdotal, that This author appears to be serious, retrieving certain memories relating however. Since discovering under to the causes of our problems relieves hypnosis that she had once beamed those problems. There is no evidence up to a UFO, Fiore has found that that "hypnosis," let alone "hypnotic many of her patients have had similar age-regression," can facilitate experiences, sometimes with trau­ memory. The forensic use of hypnosis matic results. Encounters gives the case in enhancing' eyewitness testimony histories of 13 of these people. The has been severely criticized (Wagstaff therapeutic technique Fiore uses with 1989), and laboratory studies have them is called "hypnotic age- found that "hypnotized" witnesses regression," which she says "gets to may make more errors than control the cause of symptoms and problems subjects. Sanders and Simmons (1983) of all sorts and results in immediate reported showing a videotape portray­ and lasting cures" (p. xvi). This state­ ing a crime to 100 college students. ment rests on two dubious assump­ One week later the subjects were tions: first, that "hypnotic age- asked to identify the criminal in a regression" enhances memory for videotaped police lineup. Half of the

188 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 subjects were hypnotized and the show and "hypnotically regressed" the control subjects were not. The control host, who reported seeing a UFO. The subjects made more correct identifi­ hypnotherapist stated on the show cations and answered more questions that Downey was indeed hypnotized about the incident correctly than the and had recalled a real incident of UFO hypnotized subjects. "Hypnotized" contact. Downey then announced to people may be more suggestible, but the audience, which included some less accurate. members of the New York Area Fiore's patients were told about her Skeptics, that he had faked the whole belief in extraterrestrial abductions thing. and the fact that she was writing a So why am I writing this review book about such incidents before they and preaching to the converted? were "hypnotized." Being informed Because I am concerned about the that the therapist herself had been profession and practice of psychology. abducted and being aware of the It's bad enough that there is an extensive supermarket-tabloid litera­ abundance of nonempirical (and anti- ture on the subject could further empirical) therapeutic methods prime the patients' fantasies. And abounding in psychotherapy. This is fertile fantasies they are. The aliens a situation similar to that of medicine apparently are intensely curious about a century ago, when untested cures human anatomy, especially the like bloodletting caused iatrogenic naughty parts. They remove one illness. In the present case, if these woman's ova, probe various orifices people were not actually abducted, are of others with strange instruments therapists like Fiore and the 26 others right out of Bones's medical bag, and listed in the back of her book actually operate on one person's brain without causing, rather than treating, psycho­ leaving a scar. There is a powerful logical problems? inducement to fantasize these things and end up as a case in the therapist's References book (soon to be a movie?). Further­ more, some of these people (or people Sanders, G. S., and W. L. Simmons. 1983. with identical stories) have ended up Use of hypnosis to enhance eyewitness testimony: Does it work? Journal of on various television talk-shows— Applied Psychology, 68:70-77. further fame and attention for pro­ Wagstaff, G. F. 1989. Forensic aspects of ducing a good fantasy. hypnosis. In Hypnosis: The Cognitive- Behavioral Perspective, 340-357, ed. by Fiore is not alone. She lists 26 other N. P. Spanos and J. F. Chaves (Buffalo, alienists at the end of the book. These N.Y.: Prometheus Books). people are said to be hypnotherapists who work with abductees or contac- /. R. Corey is a professor of psychology tees. I had seen one of them. She at the C. W. Post Campus of Long Island appeared on the Morton Downey, Jr., University, Brookville, N.Y.

Winter 1991 189 Fun-Filled Reading for Young, Inquisitive Minds

The Magic Detectives: Join Them in Solving Strange Mysteries. By Joe Nickell. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, N.Y., 1989. 115 pp. Paper, $7.95.

The Magic World of The Amazing Randi. By James ("The Amazing") Randi. Bob Adams, Inc., Holbrook, Mass. 120 pp. Paper, $9.95

ROBERT A. BAKER

ritten for young folks in the Each of the 30 mysteries captivates ten to teen-years age group, and engages the reader and in each WJoe Nickell's Magic Detectives story at least one or two clues are is a splendid vehicle for awakening carefully embedded in the text. The interest in both the world of the subsequent solutions are simple, clear, paranormal and the skeptic's efforts and enlightening. Nickell is also to provide scientific explanations of careful to avoid the error many unreasonable claims. In a delightful authors make in "writing down" to and entertaining manner Nickell gives their audience and totally destroying the young reader a mystery with all youthful credibility. No one wants several clues to its solution. Once the to be talked to or treated "like a child." hook is set he then asks the reader The book makes a perfect present to think up a reasonable, common- for any skeptic's son or daughter, niece sense solution. Successful or not, by or nephew, grandchild, or any other then turning the book upside-down ten-year-old or teen you know. As a the solution or explanation is pro­ text for use in the classroom it will vided. Clearly written and also clev­ serve as an admirable antidote to the erly illustrated by the author, the book paranormal propaganda pestering us provides 30 of the most popular and at every turn. A note to teachers and well known occult classics set in a a list of references are also provided. mystery format. Included are such Although James Randi's skeptical legends as the Amityville Horror, angle is more oblique, he is equally firewalking, the Geller effect, the successful in his efforts to awaken Bermuda Triangle, the Shroud of young people's interest in the art of Turin, haunted houses, ghosts, talking magic and the professional magician. horses, fairies, spirit pictures, Bigfoot, Randi's Magic World consists of 24 ancient astronauts, faith healers, clever and carefully selected magic Bridey Murphy, and spontaneous tricks offered by young or young-at- human combustion. heart professional magicians from all Although written for youngsters, over the globe. Represented are adults will find that the stories have Jocquin Ayala from Mexico, Alan the same appeal as potato chips or Nguyin from Vietnam, as well as peanuts—after the first sample you artists from Italy, the USSR, Canada, won't stop until you shamefully find Switzerland, France, Jamaica, Ireland, yourself reading "A Note to the Puerto Rico, and South Africa, plus Teacher" at the end of the book. 13 well and less well known professional

190 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 "Walking on Fire," from The Magic Detectives. conjurors from the United States. The with relative ease and a minimum latter include Harry Blackstone, amount of practice, using ordinary, Nathan Burton, David Copperfield, easily obtained household items. Goldfinger and Dove, Penn and Teller, Every skeptic who has ever Robert Steiner, and Randi himself. addressed a young audience has Randi's format consists of brief biog­ stressed the importance of learning raphies of the magicians, a concise magic if one plans to become a serious presentation of the artist's favorite investigator of the paranormal. Ran­ trick and how to perform it, and some di's Magic World provides an enter­ general principles of successful stage taining introduction to magic as either presence and presentation given in a a vocation or avocation, and his choice final section. Also provided is a list of of performers to emulate should be props required for the tricks, a glos­ inspirational. It is a neat educational sary of magic terms, addresses of package. The same can also be said dealers in magic supplies, and the about Nickell's primer for skeptics. names and addresses of magic socie­ Together the two books provide a ties and professional publications. complementary and fun-filled trip for The tricks and deceptions of con­ young inquisitive minds. They also set juring skill consist of successful a splendid example for other skeptics predictions; ESP and mind-reading to follow when they sit down in front illusions; card tricks, coin tricks, tricks of their word processors. Well-crafted with handkerchiefs and napkins; tricks books in the skeptical vein for young with string, shoelaces, magazines, readers are few and far between, and rubber bands, pencils, a glass, and even the truth in the aphorism "As the the book itself, which contains a twig is bent, so grows the tree" still picture of a black hole. Most can be holds. More power to writers like carried out by the average youngster Nickell and Randi. •

Winter 1991 191 Some Rece Books I ' "ask- mz?:- ~ - i

Cold Fusion Research: A Report of the persuasion strategies, fallacies, influ­ Energy Research Advisory Board. U.S. ences on data collection, and overcom­ Energy Research Advisory Board. ing obstacles to critical thinking. National Technical Information Ser­ vice, Springfield, Va., 1989. $17.00 Evolution and the Myth of Creation- (fiche: $8.00). In April 1989 the ism. Tim M. Berra. Stanford Univer­ Secretary of Energy ordered his sity Press, Stanford, Calif., 1990. 198 advisory board to examine the cold­ pp. Index. $7.95, paper; $29.50, cloth. fusion experiments that professors Zoologist provides a basic guide to the Pons and Fleischmann had announced facts in the evolution debate. Written and which others were attempting to for the open-minded reader who duplicate. The Board's study, com­ would like to better understand the pleted in November 1989, concludes technical issues of evolution but is that the phenomenon appears to be confused by the political/educational neither a nuclear process nor a poten­ controversies swirling about the tial form of usable energy. They subject. Basically a brief elaboration of recommend against special funding the evidence for evolution, but doesn't but are "sympathetic toward modest pull any punches in its criticism of support for carefully focused and creationists. cooperative experiments. . . ." There is a lengthy bibliography.—Robert Facts, Fallacies, and Frauds in Psy­ Lopresti chology. Andrew M. Colman. Hut­ chinson, London, 1990. 225 pp. Index. Critical Thinking in Clinical Practice. Critical examination of many subjects Eileen Gambrill. Jossey-Bass Publish­ of popular interest. Topics include ers, San Francisco, 1990. 432 pp. anorexia, body image, bulimia, ESP, Index. $29.95, cloth. The author hypnosis, intelligence, nature- shows how cultivation of critical- nurture, obedience, race, and twins. thinking skills by psychologists, psy­ chiatrists, social workers, and coun­ Philosophy of Science and the Occult, selors can help them make more 2nd ed. Edited by Patrick Grim. State accurate decisions about their clients University of New York Press, Albany, and so provide better service. She N.Y., 1990. 395 pp. Index. $10.95, notes that surprisingly little attention paper. Introduces the philosophy of is devoted in professional training to science through examination of the sources of error that can lead clinicians occult and examines the occult rigor­ astray. Examples of common errors ously enough to raise central issues she has encountered include being in the philosophy of science. Presents over-reliant on small, biased samples, divergent views on astrology, para­ not recognizing pseudoexplanations, psychology, and quantum mechanics and having a false sense of accuracy mysticism to emphasize topics stand­ about predicting future events. Chap­ ard to the philosophy of science. ters deal with such topics as reasoning, Authors represented include Paul

192 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Feyerabend, Michel Gauquelin, Ivan cloth. Psychologist provides valuable Kelly, G. A. Dean, Clark Glymour, examination into one of the most Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn, Antony interesting and misunderstood sub­ Flew, Fritjof Capra, Robert P. Crease, jects about human mind and behavior. and N. David Mermin. Discusses popular misconceptions about hypnosis; recent and contem­ Relativism Refuted: A Critique of porary views; what hypnosis is, is not, Contemporary Epistemological and what it does and doesn't do; Relativism. Harvey Siegel. D. Reidel hypnosis and pain; and abuses and Publishing Co., Dordrecht, 1987. 210 misuses of hypnosis. Baker attempts pp. $64.00, cloth. Useful critique of to bring together "a large body of epistemological relativism, a view­ experimental, empirical, and practical point scientists and other skeptics evidence that has been accumulated increasingly encounter in arguing over the past 20 years that is begin­ issues of the paranormal with other ning to clear up the confusion and scholars. misunderstanding surrounding the concept of hypnosis and 'hypnotic Scientific Fraud: Hearings. U.S. Con­ mystery.'" The analysis adds to the gress, House of Representatives, demise of the belief in a special state Committee on Energy and Com­ called "hypnosis." Instead it is more merce, Subcommittee on Oversight a communication between an author­ and Investigations. Government ity figure calling himself or herself a Printing Office. Washington, D.C., hypnotist and a second person com­ 1989. In 1989 Congress investigated plying with the requests and sugges­ claims that research done with federal tions of the first. money and reported in the journal Cell had been partly fabricated. The case Wings of Illusion: The Origin, Nature is not directly related to the para­ and Future of Paranormal Belief. John normal, but witnesses discuss such F. Schumaker. Prometheus Books, issues as scientific responsibility, the Buffalo, N.Y., 1990. 183 pp. Index. professional ethics involved in con­ $19.95, cloth. Clinical psychologist ducting and reporting experiments, writes of the human appetite for the fate of whistle-blowers, and the illusion and reality-defying belief, a advisability of Congress getting phenomenon he calls "the paranormal involved in such matters.—Robert belief imperative." An inquiry into Lopresti why paranormal beliefs are so com­ mon, what functions they serve, and They Call It Hypnosis. Robert A. what price we pay for adhering to Baker. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, them. N.Y., 1990. 313 pp. Index. $21.95, —Kendrick Frazier

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Winter 1991 193 Articles Of Note i

Bullard, Thomas E. "UFO Abduction Dawson, Michael E. "Where Does the Reports: The Supernatural Kidnap Truth Lie? A Review of The Polygraph Narrative Returns in Technological Test: Lies, Truth, and Science." Psycho- Guise." Journal of American Folklore, physiology, 27(1):120-121, 1990. 102(404):147-170, April/June 1989. Review of a study by a science board Bullard analyzes UFO-abduction sto­ of the British Psychological Society ries as folktales, delineating their that is highly critical of polygraph structure, common elements, and testing. themes. He compares them to the kidnappings that appear in tales of Evans, William A., et al. "Science in fairies, demons, etc. the Prestige and National Tabloid Presses." Social Science Quarterly, Crosariol, Beppi. "Cold Fusion and 71(1):105-117, March 1990. The cov­ the Media." Queen's Quarterly, erage of science in the New York Times 96(4):815-822, 1989. A report on the and the Philadelphia Inquirer is com­ popular media's reaction to claims of pared with that in the National cold fusion. It concludes that the Enquirer and The Star. The two types unconventional methods used to of papers offer similar proportions of announce the claims raised false science news, but differ in the com­ hopes, but also resulted in faster prehensiveness and authority of their scrutiny of the claims. coverage. The author suggests that both types minimize the process of Davidson, Keay. "When Worlds Col­ science by reporting results in "bits lide." San Francisco Examiner, August and pieces." 29, 1990, Bl. Reporter's excellent critical investigation into Howard Fish, Lydia M. "General Edward G. Blum's Out There, the latest UFO- Lansdale and the Folksongs of Amer­ conspiracy exploitation book. David­ icans in the Vietnam War." Journal of son called a number of Blum's sources American Folklore, 102(406):390-411, and found many repudiations of October-December 1989. Lansdale statements attributed to them; in was a top American intelligence other cases, no such person could be officer. The main subject of this article found. "I have not only been mis­ is his collection of folksongs from the quoted, but misquoted terribly," a Vietnam war, but there is a fascinating former White House official men­ description of his use of local super­ tioned in the book told Davidson. stitions as weapons of psychological Davidson quotes New York Times warfare: specifically, vampire legends investigative journalist Seymour in the Philippines and astrology in Hersh (also mentioned): "I resent a Vietnam. former colleague of mine . . . writing a book in which he drops my name Fisher, Arthur. "Much Ado About. in an effort, I think, to lend credence . . ." Mosaic (National Science Foun­ to what I believe are nutty theories." dation), 2l(2):12-23, Summer 1990. A

194 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 good, clear, balanced history of the ideas," says Robert Park of the Amer­ cold-fusion controversy. ican Physical Society), it nevertheless does support daring, expensive, and Kelly, Ivan W., Roger Culver, and controversial studies, such as the Peter ]. Loptson. "Astrology and $192-million LIGO gravity-wave Science: An Examination of the observatory. The situation is compli­ Evidence." In Cosmic Perspectives, 207- cated in astronomy by an extreme 231, ed. by S. K. Biswas, D. C. V. shortage of telescopes and observing Mallik, and C. V. Vishveshwara, time. Another issue is the tendency Cambridge University Press, New of funding agencies to support pro­ York, 1989. Detailed scientific critique jects that promise "dazzling and of astrology. spectacular" results to the neglect of more mundane-sounding subjects, Lievrouw, Leah A. "Communication such as ceramics and solid-state and the Social Representation of physics, that may be more important. Scientific Knowledge." Studies in Mass Meanwhile the National Science Communications, 7(l):l-9, March 1990. Foundation does have a new program The article outlines the process by of "small grants for exploratory which scientific theories are made research," although it is intended to available to the general public and the get fresh, new researchers started, not reasons that some ideas are easier to help mature ones fight their scientific popularize than others. Cold fusion is enemies. See also, Rolf M. Sinclair's used as an example. interesting follow-up letter, Science 249:972, August 31, 1990, lamenting Macintosh, J. J. "Reincarnation and and rebutting Marshall's "overused Relativized Identity." Religious Studies, literary scenario of the unappreciated 25:153-165, June 1989. Critique of maverick versus the closed-minded reincarnation by Canadian philos­ establishment." States Sinclair: "Any opher who argues it is logically discussion of an 'uphill battle for impossible. A difficult article, heavy acceptance' should include such coun­ going with modal logic. terexamples as relativity, quantum mechanics, DNA, and the quark model, all of which gained acceptance Marshall, Eliot. "Science Beyond the as fast as word got around. The Pale." Science, 249:14-16, July 6,1990. question could better be phrased, Inquiry into dealing with maverick, What are the dynamics that make unorthodox ideas within the scientific some ideas take months and others community, with special reference to take decades to find their equilibria?" "heretical" views of astronomer Hal ton C. Arp (opposing the standard model of redshift theory) and physicist Masek, Bruce. "Biofeedback." Harvard Hannes Alfven (about space plasmas). Medical School Health Letter, 15(10):1- What is the proper balance of public 4, August 1990. Explains how biofeed­ funding between "mainline" scientific back works, when it's effective, and ideas and "unconventional" ideas that what it isn't particularly good for. virtually all other scientists feel are untenable? Looks at both sides of the Murphy, Cullen. "The Way the World issue and points out that while federal Ends." Wilson Quarterly, 14(l):50-55, funding of science generally does Winter 1990. A cheerful overview of avoid "maverick" proposals ("most the current eschatology boom, com­ screwy ideas just turn out to be screwy paring recent theories on the world's

Winter 1991 195 demise with earlier panics, such as the by devil worshipers has resurged in events of the year 999. Cullen sug­ the U.S." and gained acceptance via gests that the popular "end of history" tabloid television. Psychologists, social theory and related ideas may be part workers, and prosecutors have joined of this end-of-millennium fever. parents in a subculture of "tent- revival beliefs in their children's Nathan, Debbie. "What McMartin imagined victimization" and "abuses Started: The Ritual Sex Abuse Hoax." of a child-protection movement gone Village Voice, June 12, 1990, pp. 36- mad," which the author says is wreak­ 44. Probing investigation into the ing harm on civil liberties, the accused, latest round of Satan scares, beginning day-care, women's rights, and with the McMartin day-care case. children. Places these ritual sex-abuse scares into the context of "moral panics" like Taubes, Gary. "Cold Fusion Conun­ the Salem witch trials and McCar- drum at Texas A&M." Science, thyism. " 'Ritual abuse' is today's 248:1299-1304, June 15, 1990. Inves­ mythic expression of deep-seated tigative report that is first to raise the worries over sweeping changes in the question of possible fraud (a sugges­ family." In this case "many feminists tion of spiking of test cells with and progressives have bought into the tritium) in certain cold-fusion exper­ hysteria, too." These fears have been iments at Texas A&M that had pos­ reinforced by "another strand of itive results. The case is not yet irrationality—the rise of paranoia resolved. about Satanism, in which religious —Kendrick Frazier and belief in child-torturing conspiracies Robert Lopresti

WHY THERE AJ^e NO P3M=WJOKavVxl_ £U5(N&eSBS IK) THE WOf^L-D.

196 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 THE VOICE OF INQUIRY A Radio Magazine Because CSICOP has received an increasing amount of mail expressing distress at the lack of skeptical perspectives in radio and television programs, we have begun to participate in a new venture called the "Center for Inquiry." The Center for Inquiry will be a media production facility designed to develop and produce radio, television, and videotape programming that promotes skepticism, critical thinking, and the scientific method. Now there are seven installments of "The Voice of Inquiry," the radio magazine program co-sponsored by CSICOP. Purchase your own Voice of Inquiry tapes and listen at your convenience. All programs are a half-hour long (Dolby stereo cassette). $6.95 each 3 for $18.00 All 7 for $41.00 • 103A. "Satanism in America": Shawn Carlson, Gary O'Sullivan, Phillips Stevens, Robert Hicks • "Critical Thinking": Steve Allen, Paul MacCready • "Spontaenous Human Combustion": Joe Nickell • "African-Americans and Humanism." • 103B. "Does the Full Moon Affect Human Behavior?" Ivan Kelly, James Rotton, Roger Culver, Nick Sanduleak • "Sex in the 1990s" • "What Secular Humanism Is and Isn't" • Secular Organizations for Sobriety." • 103C. "Out-of-Body and Near-Death Experiences": Susan Blackmore • "The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence," Thomas McDonough • "The Logic and Virtue of Skepticism": Ray Hyman • "Euthanasia." • 104A. ALL CSICOP PROGRAM "CSICOP 1990 Conference Report": James Randi, Penn Jillette, Paul Kurtz, Barry Karr, Bill Nye the "Science Guy," and others. • "Why We Believe the Incredible": James Alcock, Ray Hyman • "Hands-On Skepticism": Bernard Leikind. • 104B. "Was Ancient Egypt Black?": Teaching About Religion in Public Schools" • "Global Humanism. • 105A. "Why Astrology Won't Go Away": Shawn Carlson, Andrew Fraknoi, Paul Kurtz • "Can Reason Alone Make Us Moral?" • "The New Age": Robert Basil, Jay Rosen, Ted Schultz, Brad Steiger. • 105B. "Magic and Deception": Kendrick Frazier, Henry Gordon, Steve Shaw, Bob Steiner, Jamy Ian Swiss • "Contraception" • "The New Castastrophism": David Morrison, James Oberg.

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the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. C The Center for Inquiry will be built in two phases on a 1.82- acre site adjacent to the State University of New York at Buffalo (SUNYAB) Amherst Campus, one of North America's largest university campuses. This location offers maximum access to university resources in a setting conducive to productivity and growth. The property, a long, narrow lot with frontage on a major suburban artery, has been acquired using existing funds.

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College Science Courses: Many of today's young people place more trust in the astrological signs Killing the Germ than in real science. In fact, many feel that real science is more pseudoscien- Of Interest tific than pseudoscience! It is easier for VINCENT F. SAFUTO them to understand the supposed characteristics of a "Virgo" than the physical characteristics of quasar 3C he recent articles by Carl Sagan 273 in Virgo. During a "Halley Rally" (1990) and Glenn T. Seaborg four years ago, a 16-year-old girl told T(1990) in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER me about an astronomy class that was regarding the sad state of science offered at a local high school. She education in the United States were registered for it because of her interest interesting but theoretical. I agree in astronomy. Many others registered totally with the conclusions of both for it because they thought it was a articles: We need to teach science bet­ class in astrology. It didn't matter, ter and understand it more. As a though, because the teacher knew student at a local community college, nothing about either topic. I have had the opportunity to experi­ Florida's community colleges re­ ence firsthand exactly what is wrong quire students to take six credits in with science teaching at the junior- science. These are six of the most college level and gauge its effect on dreaded credits in the whole curricu­ students. lum, according to some students. Hav­ The poor quality of science instruc­ ing had their interest in science beaten tion at precollegiate levels is evident out of them in high school, they are in the beliefs of students at the college not highly motivated to take any more I attend. Astrology is uncritically courses in it. The specific course I took accepted by some students and many was Earth Science. The way it was others believe "there must be some­ presented and its effect on the level thing to it." As a reporter for the of science interest bear close scrutiny. college newspaper, I wrote feature Although I have no complaints articles on science and was asked to about the topics covered (meteorol­ "dumb-down" many stories because ogy' geology, plate tectonics, and even my editors found them incom­ astronomy), the way they were pre­ prehensible. Students were often ig­ sented led many in the class to an even norant of basic scientific principles. My deeper dislike of science. Science was articles on astrology and biorhythms shown to be not a fascinating endea­ brought forth such comments as vor of discovery and insight, but a "You're causing people to lose hope in boring listen-to-lectures, take-notes, the future." A few students told me and a fill-in-the-dots-of-the-multiple- that they could not understand the choice-test marathon. All theory and need to take six credits of science since no practical applications makes science they were not majoring in science. very dull.

200 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 At-*,[Staj+ieai

The teacher was a physics teacher As an amateur astronomer, I ea­ who, I am told, is even more boring gerly awaited the unit on astronomy in his normal subjects. I found him and advised my classmates to stay in to be a fascinating person in one-on- the class for it. I hoped that, when one conversations. We had several they were exposed to the wonders of interests in common and I enjoyed space, my fellow students would talking with him in his office. He could better understand the value of science. not transfer that ability to the one- Again, we were very much disap­ on-forty lectures in the classroom, pointed. There were no tapes or films though. He often wasted time. Out on astronomy. The teacher spent of a 75-minute class, he devoted 10 much time talking about time. Dec­ to 15 minutes to taking attendance. lination and Right Ascension were The antiquated movie projector was discussed to death. Sidereal time, solar a challenge to his abilities: once he time, and lunar time had to be under­ spent 20 minutes loading a film. stood. At one point, the teacher The teaching aids were museum commented that "the astrological pieces. Although the teacher brought signs are in the zodiac." He would in rock samples from his own collec­ often mention, in passing, all the tion to emphasize points during the topics he couldn't talk about: black unit on geology, he had little to work holes, galaxies, quasars, neutron stars, with in the other units. The films and so on. dated back to the late fifties and early His discussions of the solar system sixties. There were a few videotape basically reminded students that there presentations, but they were quite were nine planets. He was not aware dull. that Neptune has rings until I

Winter 1991 201 informed him of that fact. He com­ science the way it is currently being mented that some people thought that taught. Interest must be developed crystals could heal, that astrology if it is not present. The way to do seemed to have some basis in fact, that that is not by putting students to sleep the International Star Registry sold in class. Students must "do" science, stars, and that learning science was not just read about it or take notes mainly learning vocabulary. All with­ on it. out the other side of the argument: The alternative is to create a crystals have not been proved to heal generation turned off by science or anything, astrology is statistically so misinformed that they find real invalid and scientifically impossible, science hard to believe and pseudo- the ISR's designations have no author­ science easily accessible, like "Mr. ity or validity, and learning science is Buckley" in Carl Sagan's recent article. learning how the universe and nature work. References Talking with my fellow students after the final exam, I found two Sagan, Carl. 1990. Why we need to under­ groups: a vast majority who loathed stand science. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 14:263-269. science because of the course (none Seaborg, Glenn T. 1990. The crisis in pre- science majors) and a tiny minority college science and math education. who loved science in spite of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 14:270-275. course (all majoring in science-related fields). From these results, it is obvious Vincent F. Safuto is a free-lance writer, that what we need at all levels, college journalism student, amateur including the college level, is a hard astronomer, and occasional astronomy look at how science is presented to the teacher. He recently taught a course at non-science major. the South Florida Science Museum titled We cannot continue to teach "Pseudoscience: Nonscience or Nonsense?"

science. The advocates of paranormal Pseudoscientific Beliefs beliefs and pseudosciences are often perceived as harmless entertainers, and the Slaughter good "copy" for the media, or amusing eccentrics. It is sometimes difficult to of Wild Animals convince even a rational audience of F. K. DONNELLY the harm caused by paranormal beliefs, apart from the enormous time wasted by preoccupation with such believe the advocacy of skepticism things as astrology, palmistry, tea-leaf and rationalism has more imme­ readings, pyramid power, iridology, I diate social implications than has phrenology, physiognomy, etc. been otherwise perceived. Too often There is, however, one very impor­ skeptics are seen as an irrelevant tant and alarming environmental group obsessed with, at worst, the issue that provides a graphic illustra­ exposure of relatively harmless cranks tion of the damage caused by pseudo- or, at best, the protection of the gulli­ scientific belief structures. I refer to ble public from the wiles of the un­ the carnage perpetrated against large scrupulous promoters of pseudo- wild animals by poachers. Large

202 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 horned animals are slaughtered to whole organism. In the case of the serve a worldwide market based on trade in rhino and stag horns we are the belief that horns or tusks possess dealing with an alleged correspon­ medicinal or other powers to enhance dence between human male virility sexual performance or promote male and the hardness of a nonsexual body prowess. Rhino horns are used in part of a genetically remote species. Oriental cultures as a medicine, while In my view the rationalist initiative ivory from elephants is highly prized in this critical area should be threefold: in certain parts of the Middle East as 1. In our criticism of pseudoscience handles for daggers. Even the North and paranormal beliefs of various American black and brown bears are types we should be determined to being slaughtered for the supposed expose the more fundamental notion medicinal qualities of their various of correspondences. This false belief body parts. Conservationists, envi­ underlies astrology, palmistry, phre­ ronmentalists, government agencies, nology, physiognomy, and possibly and even the promoters of tourism the practice of homeopathy. To the have warned that many species in extent that the notion of "correspon­ Africa and elsewhere are endangered dences" persists at all, it supports the by this horrible and largely illegal structure of pseudomedical beliefs traffic. that now threaten the very existence Environmentalists have sounded of many species of large mammals. the alarm and many governments 2. We should be prepared to work have tried to stop the assault against with responsible cultural and ethnic such magnificent creatures. Skeptics groups in an educational effort to and rationalists also have their part undermine these traditional yet false to play in the preservation of these and ultimately tragic therapies. In species. Our role must be a supple­ doing so we do not need to assume mentary educational one. We must a stance of cultural superiority in point out that the belief underlying relation to our audience. Skeptics the whole process is really a form of know only too well that the belief in the notion of "correspondences," "correspondences" is also deeply whereby superficial similarities rooted in "Western" culture. between two phenomena are believed 3. We should be prepared to work to have special significance. Thus the with environmental groups to elim­ astrologer might link the position of inate the demand for these animal Mars, the red planet, to blood and war parts through our joint educational and ultimately to a bellicose person­ efforts. ality. Likewise in some European folk I trust the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER cultures, red hair is believed to be the readership will recognize the urgency mark of a short-tempered person. of this problem. Similarly the palm reader and iridol- ogist each believe that their particular F. K. Donnelly is a professor of history chosen body part contains decipher­ at the University of New Brunswick, able clues to the performance of the Saint John, N.B., Canada.

Winter 1991 203 * Something for Nothing:Work (1973). In this classic we are told of the development of "orgone A Common Theme energy" and its use as a cure for cancer and to alleviate emotional distress. in the Paranormal Reich built orgone accumulators— rectangular boxes with sides made out STEVEN HOFFMASTER of alternate layers of organic and inorganic materials. Later on, Reich used "orgone energy" in his "cloud­ pon reading Lawrence Jerome's buster" to end droughts and to shoot (1989) recent book on crystal out stars while fighting evil (melanor) power, I had a horrible feeling in the universe. Roughly speaking the U cloudbuster was a series of parallel that I had been there before. It all seemed much too familiar. We are metal pipes that could be aimed at the talking serious deja vu. Words like offending party. These pipes were "energy field," "water purification," connected to running water by metal­ "healing power," and "the lost conti­ lic cables that served as conductors for nent of Atlantis" began to bring tiny the good energy (orgone) or bad beads of perspiration to my forehead. energy (melanor). Was this a first for me, a true We should be thankful for small psychic experience? Or was it some­ cosmic miracles, I suppose. During the thing much more mundane? A pico­ middle of the pyramidic phase of this second's thought took care of that. phenomenon, several books on Pen­ Having read several books more than dulum Power appeared. In Nielsen and a decade ago on pyramid power, and Polansky's (1977) Pendulum Power, one later having lectured on it, I recog­ can find all the claims previously nized that many of the same claims mentioned. In fact the book reads very that were made there are now being much like one on pyramids, except made for crystal power. now we have pointed objects (some­ One of the pyramid power classics, times crystals) swinging on strings. Serge V. King's (1977) Pyramid Energy This never really caught on. Perhaps Handbook, claims that the pyramid has there is some sort of exclusivity mysterious healing powers, can be principle working here. In any case, dangerous in overdoses, and can re­ most of us had our lives considerably energize the body, relieve emotional altered by the absence of a lot of distress, and of course improve one's pendulum drivel. sex life. These can be found in most If we go even further back in time, books of the pyramid genre and are we see that perpetual-motion efforts listed in Catherine Bowman's (1987) (Ord-Hume 1977) have a lot in com­ Crystal Awareness. Bowman also mon with pyramids/crystals. All points out (repeatedly) that the best promise a relatively large output place to meditate with crystals is inside (fairly easily) for a correspondingly a frame pyramid. small input. Many of today's rabid If we go further into the past, a environmentalists show some of the nearly similar development can be same traits as they argue (vehemently, seen in the work of Wilhelm Reich. of course) for the maintenance of a Probably the best summary of Reich's pristine earth while keeping current work is given in David Boadella's standards of living. Apparently they Wilhelm Reich: The Evolution of His are unaware of the inherent trade-offs

204 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 present in the use of energy. an equal footing with cosmic auras. Clearly there is some human need A scientifically literate and aware that is being served by all this. person, on the average, is much less Otherwise it would not keep re­ likely to simply "wish upon a star" to appearing in only slightly disguised make things better. The reasoning forms. Typically life is not uniformly associated with scientific training pleasant. Most of us have some rather presumably allows someone to think bad times. And most of us either ride through a particular problem and to them out or work through them. fairly accurately assess various alter­ Wouldn't it be nice if these troubles native solutions. would just go away? Wouldn't it be Much of life is likely to remain nice if Mother or Father or pyramids nonrational. The creation of a work or crystals would solve our problems of art, be it a painting or a novel, can for us? It is so terribly difficult and hardly be done by coloring in the unpleasant trying to solve them numbers or following a prescribed ourselves. In fact some appear to be formula. Even in science, the work of so complex that the solutions are not the truly great is not completely at all obvious. rational. The mental images of Ein­ It is often difficult to accept that stein, the mystical background of the world is not particularly fair or Newton, and the familiar story of that in some cases we are relatively Kekule and the benzene ring clearly helpless to redress wrong or evil. We show this. These are truly marvelous. all have unfulfilled personal relation­ It is the misuse of this side of human ships. We have seen or experienced nature that should distress us. We all horrible illness. And we are aware of need a little escapism. However, the many other terrible injustices. At continual recourse to wishful thinking these times, resorting to discussions or unlikely world systems in order to of the violation of the law of conser­ get quick fixes and avoid the real vation of energy is not likely to be problems will only, in the long run, greeted with much sympathy. Like­ make such problems worse. wise, pointing out that the pheno­ mena in question are inconsistent References with the informational and statistical approaches to the second law of Boadella, David. 1973. Wilhelm Reich: The thermodynamics is not particularly Evolution of His Work. New York: Dell. productive. Bowman, Catherine. 1987. Crystal Aware­ ness. St. Paul, Minn.: Llewellyn. This is not meant to imply that Jerome, Lawrence E. 1989. Crystal Power. nothing can be done about the irra­ Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus. tional approaches to life. Certainly the King, Serge V. 1977. Pyramid Energy Hand­ scientific illiteracy of much of the book. New York: Warner. United States makes us more suscep­ Nielsen, Greg, and Joseph Polansky. 1977. Pendulum Power. New York: Warner/ tible to the irrational solutions men­ Destiny. tioned above. Most of the "more Ord-Hume, Arthur W. J. G. 1977. Perpetual intelligent" books written about Motion: The History of an Obsession. New pyramids, crystals, etc., have the York: St. Martin's. trappings of science and they can be awfully convincing to those with a Steven Hoffmaster is in the Physics weak or nonexistent science back­ Department at Gonzaga University, ground. To such people something like Spokane, WA 99258. He is chairman the conservation of energy is often on of CSICOP's Education Subcommittee.

Winter 1991 205 Back Issues of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 15% discount on orders of $100 or more ($6.25 for each copy. To order, use reply card insert.) FALL 1990 (vol. 15, no. 1): Neural Organization in Sasquatch footprints, Freeland and Rowe. The lore Technique: Treatment or Torture, Worrall. The of levitation, Stein. Levitation 'miracles' in India, Spooks of Quantum Mechanics, Stenger.Scienc e and Premanand. Science, pseudoscience, and the cloth of Sir William Crookes, Hoffmaster. The 'N' Machine, Turin, Nickell. Rather than just debunking, encourage Cumming. Biological Cycles and Rhythms vs. Bior- people to think, Seckel. MJ-12 papers 'authenticated'? hythms, Wheeler. The Mysterious Finger-Lift Levita- Klass. A patently false patent myth, Sass. tion, Gardner. 1990 CSICOP Conference. WINTER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 2): Special report: The SUMMER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 4): Ghosts make news: 'remembering water' controversy, Gardner and Randi; How four newspapers report psychic phenomena, Bibliographic guide to the 'dilution controversy.' Klare, Thinking critically and creatively, Wade and Pathologies of science, precognition, and modern Tavris. Police pursuit of satanic crime. Part 2, Hicks. psychophysics, Jensen. A reaction-time test of ESP and Order out of chaos in survival research, Berger. precognition, Hines and Dennison. Chinese psychic's pill- Piltdown, paradigms, and the paranormal, Feder. bottle demonstration, Wu Xiaoping. The Kirlian Auras: Searching for the light, Loftin.Biorhythm s and technique, Watkins and Bickel. Certainty and proof in the timing of death, Lester. Relativism in science, creationist thought, Leferriere. Gardner. FALL 1988 (vol. 13, no. 1): Special report: Astrology SPRING 1990 (vol. 14, no. 3): Why we need to and the presidency, Kurtz and Bob. Improving Human understand science, Sagan. The crisis in pre-college Performance: What about parapsychology? Frazier. science and math education, Seaborg.Polic e pursuit of The China syndrome: Further reflections on the satanic crime, Part 1, Hicks. The spread of satanic- paranormal in China, Kurtz. Backward masking, cult rumors, Victor. Lying about polygraph tests, Mclver. The validity of graphological analysis, Furnham. Shneour. Worldwide disasters and moon phase, Kelly, The intellectual revolt against science, Grove. Reich Saklofske, and Culver. St. George and the dragon of the rainmaker, Gardner. creationism, Gardner. SUMMER 1988 (vol. 12, no. 4): Testing psi claims WINTER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 2): The new catastro- in China, Kurtz, Alcock, Frazier, Karr, Klass, and Randi. phism, Morrison and Chapman. A field guide to critical The appeal of the occult: Some thoughts on history, thinking, Lett. Cold fusion: A case history in 'wishful religion, and science, Stevens. Hypnosis and reincar­ science'? Rothman. The airship hysteria of 1896-97, nation, Venn. Pitfalls of perception, Wheeler. Wegener Bartholomew. Newspaper editors and the creation- and pseudoscience: Some misconceptions, Edelman. An evolution controversy, Zimmerman. Special report: investigation of psychic crime-busting, Emery. High­ New evidence of MJ-12 hoax, Klass. The great Urantia flying health quackery, Hines. The bar-code beast, mystery, Gardner. Keith. Occam's Razor and the nutshell earth, Gardner. FALL 1989 (vol. 14, no. 1): Myths about science, SPRING 1988 (vol. 12, no. 3): Neuropathology and Rothman. The relativity of wrong, Asimcro. Richard the legacy of spiritual possession, Beyerstein. Varieties Feynman on fringe science. Luis Alvarez and the of alien experience, Ellis. Alien-abduction claims and explorer's quest. Mailer. The two cultures, ]ones. The standards of inquiry (excerpts from Milton Rosen­ 'top-secret UFO papers' NSA won't release, Klass. The berg's radio talk-show with guests Charles Gruder, metaphysics of Murphy's Law, Price. The Unicorn at Martin Orne, and Budd Hopkins). The MJ-12 Papers: large, Gardner. Part 2, Klass. Doomsday: The May 2000 prediction, SUMMER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 4): The New Age—An Meeus. My visit to the Nevada Clinic, Barrett. Morphic Examination: The New Age in perspective, Kurtz. A resonance in silicon chips, Varela and Letelier. Abigail's New Age reflection in the magic mirror of science, anomalous apparition, Durm. The riddle of the O'Hara. The New Age: The need for myth in an age Colorado ghost lights. Bunch and White. The obligation of science, Schultz. Channeling, Alcock. The psychology to disclose fraud, Gardner. of channeling, Reed, 'Entities' in the linguistic WINTER 1987-88 (vol. 12, no. 2): The MJ-12 papers: minefield, Thomason. Crystals, Lawrence. Consumer Part I, Philip ]. Klass. The aliens among us: Hypnotic culture and the New Age, Rosen. The Shirley MacLaine regression revisited. Baker. The brain and conscious­ phenomenon, Gordon. Special report: California court ness: Implications for psi, Beyerstein. Past-life hypnotic jails psychic surgeon, Brenneman. regression, Spanos. Fantasizing under hypnosis, Reveen. SPRING 1989 (vol. 13, no. 3): High school biology The verdict on creationism, Gould. Irving Kristol and teachers and pseudoscientific belief, Eve and Dunn. the facts of life, Gardner. Evidence for Bigfoot? Dennett. Alleged pore structure FALL 1987 (vol. 12, no. 1): The burden of skepticism, Sagan. Is there intelligent life on Earth? Kurtz. Medical tales and space-age myths of creationist evangelism; Controversies: Chiropractic, Jarvis; Homeopathy, Mclver. Creationism's debt to George McCready Price, Barrett, M.D.; Alternative therapies, Jones; Quackery, Gardner. Pepper. Catching Geller in the act, Emery. The third WINTER 1985-86 (vol. 10, no. 2): The moon was full eye, Gardner. Special Report: CSICOP's 1987 and nothing happened, Kelly, Rotton, and Culver. Psychic conference. studies: The Soviet dilemma, Ebon. The psycho- SUMMER 1987 (vol. 11, no. 4): Incredible cremations: pathology of fringe medicine, Sabbagh. Computers and Investigating combustion deaths, Nickell and Fischer. rational thought, Spangenburg and Moser. Psi Subliminal deception, Creed. Past tongues remem­ researchers' inattention to conjuring, Gardner. bered? Thomason. Is the universe improbable? Shotwell. FALL 1985 (vol. 10, no. 1): Investigations of fire- Psychics, computers, and psychic computers, Easton. walking, Leikind and McCarthy. Firewalking: reality or Pseudoscience and children's fantasies, Evans. illusion, Dennett. Myth of alpha consciousness, Thoughts on science and superstrings, Gardner. Special Beyerstein. Spirit-rapping unmasked, V. Bullough. The Reports: JAL pilot's UFO report, Mass; Unmasking Saguaro incident, Taylor and Dennett. The great stone psychic Jason Michaels, Busch. face, Gardner. SPRING 1987 (vol. 11, no. 3): The elusive open mind: SUMMER 1985 (vol. 9, no. 4): Guardian astrology Ten years of negative research in parapsychology, study, Dean, Kelly, Rotton, and Saklofske. Astrology and Blackmore. Does astrology need to be true? Part 2: The the commodity market, Rotton. The hundredth answer is no, Dean. Magic, science, and metascience: monkey phenomenon, Amundson. Responsibilities of Some notes on perception, D. Sagan. Velikovsky's the media, Kurtz. 'Lucy' out of context, Albert. The nterpretation of the evidence offered by China, Lo. debunking club, Gardner. Anomalies of Chip Arp, Gardner. SPRING 1985 (vol. 9, no. 3): Columbus poltergeist: WINTER 1986-87 (vol. 11, no. 2): Case study of West I, Randi. Moon and murder in Cleveland, Sanduleak. Pittston 'haunted' house, Kurtz. Science, creationism Image of Guadalupe, Nickell and Fischer. Radar UFOs, and the Supreme Court, Seckel, with statements by Klass. Phrenology, McCoy. Deception by patients, Ayala, Gould, and Gell-Mann. The great East Coast UFO Pankratz. Communication in nature, Orslan. Relevance of August 1986, Oberg. Does astrology need to be of belief systems, Gardner. true? Part 1, Dean. Homing abilities of bees, cats, and WINTER 1984-85 (vol. 9, no. 2): The muddled 'Mind people, Randi. The EPR paradox and Rupert Sheldrake, Race,' Hyman. Searches for the Loch Ness monster, Gardner. Followups: On fringe literature, Bauer; on Razdan and Kielar. Final interview with Milbourne Martin Gardner and Daniel Home, Beloff. Christopher, Dennett. Retest of astrologer John FALL 1986 (vol. 11, no. 1): The path ahead: Oppor­ McCall, lanna and Tolbert. 'Mind Race,' Gardner. tunities, challenges, and an expanded view, Frazier. FALL 1984 (vol. 9, no. l): Quantum theory and the Exposing the faith-healers, Steiner. Was Antarctica paranormal. Shore. What is pseudoscience? Bunge. The mapped by the ancients? Jolly. Folk remedies and new philosophy of science and the 'paranormal,' human belief-systems, Reuter. Dentistry and pseudo- Toulmin. An eye-opening double encounter, Martin. science, Dodes. Atmospheric electricity, ions, and Similarities between identical twins and between pseudoscience, Dolezalek. Noah's ark and ancient unrelated people, Wyatt el al. Effectiveness of a reading astronauts, Harrold and Eve. The Woodbridge UFO program on paranormal belief. Woods, Pseudoscien- ncident, Ridpath. How to bust a ghost, Baker. The tific beliefs of 6th-graders, A. S. and S. ]. Adelman. unorthodox conjectures of Tommy Gold, Gardner. Koestler money down the psi-drain, Gardner. SUMMER 1986 (vol. 10, no. 4): Occam's razor, Shneour. SUMMER 1984 (vol. 8, no. 4): Parapsychology's past Clever Hans redivivus, Sebeok. Parapsychology eight years, Alcock. The evidence for ESP, C. E. M. miracles, and repeatability, Flew. The Condon UFO Hansel. $110,000 dowsing challenge, Randi. Sir Oliver study, Klass. Four decades of fringe literature, Dutch. Lodge and the spiritualists, Hoffmaster. Misperception, Some remote-viewing recollections, Weinberg. Science, folk belief, and the occult, Connor. Psychology and mysteries, and the quest for evidence, Gardner. UFOs, Simon. Freud and Fliess, Gardner. SPRING 1986 (vol. 10, no. 3): The perennial fringe, SPRING 1984 (vol. 8, no. 3): Belief in the paranormal Asimov. The uses of credulity, de Camp. Night walkers worldwide: Mexico, Mendez-Acosta; Netherlands, Hoe- and mystery mongers, Sagan. CSICOP after ten years, bens; U.K., Hutchinson; Australia, Smith; Canada, Gordon; Kurtz. Crash of the crashed-saucers claim, Klass. A France, Rouze. Debunking, neutrality, and skepticism study of the Kirlian effect, Watkins and Bickel. Ancient in science, Kurtz. University course reduces para- (continued on next page) Back issues (cont'd) all the time. Singer and Benassi. Recent perpetual motion normal belief, Gray. The Gribbin effect, Roder. Proving developments, Schadewald. National Enquirer astrology negatives, Pasquarello. MacLaine, McTaggart, and study, Mechler, McDaniel, and Mulloy. Science and the McPherson, Gardner. mountain peak, Asimov. WINTER 1983-84 (vol. 8, no. 2): Sense and nonsense FALL 1980 (vol. 5, no. 1): The Velikovsky affair — in parapsychology, Hoebens. Magicians, scientists, and articles by Oberg, Bauer, Frazier. Academia and the psychics, Ganoe and Kirwan. New dowsing experiment, occult, Greenwell. Belief in ESP among psychologists, Martin. The effect of TM on weather, Trumpy. The Padgett, Benassi, and Singer. Bigfoot on the loose, Kurtz. haunting of the Ivan Vassilli, Sheaffer. Venus and Veli- Parental expectations of miracles, Steiner. Downfall of kovsky, Forrest. Magicians in the psi lab, Gardner. a would-be psychic, McBurney and Greenberg. Para­ FALL 1983 (vol. 8, no. 1): Creationist pseudoscience, psychology research, Mishlove. Schadewald. Project Alpha: Part 2, Randi. Forecasting SUMMER 1980 (vol. 4, no. 4): Superstitions, Bainbridge radio quality by the planets, Dean. Reduction in and Stark. Psychic archaeology, Feder. Voice stress paranormal belief in college course, Tobacyk. Huma­ analysis, Klass. Follow-up on the 'Mars effect,' nistic astrology, Kelly and Krutzen. Evolution vs. creationism, and the Cottrell tests. SUMMER 1983 (vol. 7, no. 4): Project Alpha: Part SPRING 1980 (vol. 4, no. 3): Belief in ESP, Morris. 1, Randi. Goodman's 'American Genesis,' Feder. Battling UFO hoax, Simpson. Don Juan vs. Piltdown man, de on the airwaves, Slavsky. Rhode Island UFO film, Emery. Milk. Tiptoeing beyond Darwin, Greenwell. Conjurors Landmark PK hoax, Gardner. and the psi scene, Randi. Follow-up on the Cottrell SPRING 1983 (vol. 7, no. 3): Iridology, Worrall. The tests. Nazca drawings revisited, Nickell. People's Almanac WINTER 1979-80 (vol. 4, no. 2): The 'Mars effect' predictions, Donnelly. Test of numerology, Dlhopolsky. — articles by Kurtz, Zelen, and Abell; Rawlins; Michel and Pseudoscience in the name of the university, Lederer Francoise Gauquelin. How I was debunked, Hoebens. The and Singer. metal bending of Professor Taylor, Gardner. Science, WINTER 1982-83 (vol. 7, no. 2): Palmistry, Park. The intuition, and ESP, Bauslaugh. great SRI die mystery, Gardner. The 'monster' tree- FALL 1979 (vol. 4, no. 1): A test of dowsing, Randi. trunk of Loch Ness, Campbell. UFOs and the not-so- Science and evolution, Godfrey. Television pseudo- friendly skies, Klass. In defense of skepticism, Reber. documentaries, Bainbridge. New disciples of the para­ FALL 1982 (vol. 7, no. 1): The prophecies of Nostra­ normal, Kurtz. UFO or UAA, Standen. The lost panda, damus, Cazeau. Prophet of all seasons, fames Randi. van Kampen. Edgar Cayce, Randi. Revival of Nostradamitis, Hoebens. Unsolved mysteries SUMMER 1979 (vol. 3, no. 4): The moon and the and extraordinary phenomena. Gill. Clearing the air birthrate, Abell and Greenspan. Biorhythms, Hines. 'Cold about psi, Randi. A skotography scam, Randi. reading,' Randi. Teacher, student, and the paranormal, SUMMER 1982 (vol. 6, no. 4): Remote-viewing, Marks. Krai. Encounter with a sorcerer, Sack. Radio disturbances and planetary positions, Meeus. SPRING 1979 (vol. 3, no. 3): Near-death experiences, Divining in Australia, Smith. "Great Lakes Triangle," Alcock. Television tests of Musuaki Kiyota, Scott and Cena. Skepticism, closed-mindedness, and science fic­ Hutchinson. The conversion of J. Allen Hynek, Klass. tion, Beyerstein. Followup on ESP logic, Hardin and Morris Asimov's corollary, Asimov. and Gendin. WINTER 1978-79 (vol. 3, no. 2): Is parapsychology SPRING 1982 (vol. 6, no. 3): The Shroud of Turin, a science? Kurtz. Chariots of the gullible, Bainbridge. Mueller. Shroud image, McCrone. Science, the public, The Tunguska event, Oberg. Space travel in Bronze and the Shroud, Schafersman. Zodiac and personality, Age China, Keightley. Gauquelin. Followup on quantum PK, Hansel. FALL 1978 (vol. 3, no. l): An empirical test of astrol­ WINTER 1981-82 (vol. 6, no. 2): On coincidences, ogy, Bastedo. Astronauts and UFOs, Oberg. Sleight of Ruma Falk. Croiset: Part 2, Hoebens. Scientific crea- tongue, Schwartz. The Sirius "mystery," Ridpath. tionism, Schadewald. Follow-up on 'Mars effect,' Rawlins, SPRING/SUMMER 1978 (vol. 2, no. 2): Tests of three responses by CS1COP Council and Abell and Kurtz. psychics, Randi. Biorhythms, Bainbridge. Plant percep­ FALL 1981 (vol. 6, no. 1): Gerard Croiset: Part 1, tion, Kmetz. Anthropology beyond the fringe, Cole. Hoebens. Test of perceived horoscope accuracy, Lackey. NASA and UFOs, Klass. A second Einstein ESP letter, Planetary positions and radio propagation, lanna and Gardner. Margolin. Bermuda Triangle, 1981, Dennett. Observa­ FALL/WINTER 1977 (vol. 2, no. 1): Von Daniken, Story, tion of a psychic, McIntyre. The Bermuda Triangle, Kusche. Pseudoscience at SUMMER 1981 (vol. 5, no. 4): Investigation of 'psy­ Science Digest, Oberg and Sheaffer. Einstein and ESP, chics,' Randi. ESP: A conceptual analysis, Gendin. The Gardner. N-rays and UFOs, Klass. Secrets of the extroversion-introversion astrological effect, Kelly and psychics, Rawlins. Saklofske. Art, science, and paranormalism, Habercom. SPRING/SUMMER 1977 (vol. 1, no. 2): Uri Geller, Profitable nightmare. Wells. A Maltese cross in the Marks and Kammann. Cold reading, Hyman. Tran­ Aegean? Loftin. scendental Meditation, Woodrum. A statistical test of SPRING 1981 (vol. 5, no. 3): Hypnosis and UFO astrology, McGervey. Cattle mutilations, Stewart. abductions, Klass. Hypnosis not a truth serum, Hilgard. FALL/WINTER 1976 (vol. 1, no. 1): Dianetics, Wallis. H. Schmidt's PK experiments. Hansel. Further Psychics and clairvoyance. Fine. "Objections to comments on Schmidt's experiments, Hyman. Atlan- Astrology," Westrum. Astronomers and astro­ tean road, Randi. Deciphering ancient America, physicists as astrology critics, Kurtz and Nisbet. McKusick. A sense of the ridiculous. Lord. Biorhythms and sports, Fix. Von Daniken's chariots, WINTER 1980-81 (vol. 5, no. 2): Fooling some people Omohundro. Letters to the Editor

Resolving parapsychology laboratory for lack of funds. To carry out the sort of definitive research that Near the end of his review of Ray Marks envisages would be expensive Hyman's The Elusive Quarry (Summer and, ironically, the foundations that 1990) David Marks writes: "The fact is could afford to finance it tend to be that the major questions of parapsychology influenced by people, like Marks himself, could all be resolved one way or another who are so contemptuous of parapsy­ in a period of no longer than three years chology that they would be reluctant to [author's italics]. In all the major areas— do so. However, if Marks can suggest PK, ganzfeld, and precognition—prop­ how we might circumvent this difficulty, erly controlled large-scale experiments I feel sure that the parapsychological could be conducted, analyzed, and community would welcome this reported by cooperative teams of disbe­ prospect. lievers, skeptics, and believers." I am writing to support this proposal John Beloff and to appeal to your readers to agitate Department of Psychology for its implementation. I myself touted University of Edinburgh just such a scheme at the 1981 conven­ Edinburgh, Scotland, U.K. tion of the Parapsychological Associa­ tion with my paper "Why We Need a Commission of Inquiry." Whatever we Mythology Not New Age ourselves may believe, it is surely scandalous that the existence of psi Over the past several years of reading should still be a matter of opinion and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER I have come to that even Ray Hyman has to admit that expect well-researched articles. Thus I he does not have "the faintest idea" was somewhat disappointed by Murray whether psi exists. There is surely no L. Bob's article (News & Comment, more important project that CSICOP Summer 1990) about the "replacement" could undertake than to collaborate on of New Age thought, specifically dealing such an undertaking, and I am confident with mythology. that the Parapsychological Association The point in comparing Joseph would cooperate. Perhaps the American Campbell and Bill Moyers to Shirley Association for the Advancement of MacLaine was unclear. Does Bob argue Science could act as overseers. that Campbell intended to set up The only serious obstacle that I can mythology as the latest pseudoscientific see is the financial one. Marks is surely craze? If so, it is an argument with little being too sanguine when he says, airily, merit. Campbell was a scholar of that "the research could be funded by mythology and religion, not a believer the usual organizations and benefac­ himself. Nor did he advance any par­ tors." Could he be more specific? The ticular myth system as superior to fact is that it has always been extra­ others. Indeed, one of the first things ordinarily difficult to get funding for Campbell said in The Power of Myth was: anything connected with parapsychol­ " . . . You don't need mythology. I don't ogy. Even the highest-quality research believe in being interested in a subject is no longer safe and, recently, Charles just because it's said to be important." Honorton has had to close down his He also argued that any new myth/

Winter 1991 209 philosophy for us in the present must at the New Age section of bookstores. be based upon reason. Martin Gardner's books might be there If, on the other hand, Bob blames if the store owner thought it a good Campbell and Moyers for making marketing strategy. Nor can we take the mythology a popular subject again, and word of recognized New Age muckety- therefore responsible for all the whacko mucks: MacLaine can and does cite Goddess cults on the loose, he needs a Einstein, Kant, and Edison. lesson in logic. As a teacher myself, there But consider this: I believe few may be nothing more infuriating than skeptical inquirers would object to a student who insists upon twisting finding a moral lesson in Noah and the meanings and misunderstanding what is Ark, discussing psychological rebirth by taught. If a drunk driver demolishes making an analogy to reincarnation, or your parked car, are you to blame for enjoying a romantic moonlit walk. But leaving it where he could hit it? Of when symbols are taken as facts—a course not; neither should Campbell be biblical deluge cited in opposition to taken to task for such nuttiness (espe­ evolution, a "past life" marriage used to cially since he harped upon the meta- justify an affair with someone else's phoric nature of myth and the need to spouse, or weird behavior said to be apply reason in studying it). caused by lunar effects—some funda­ Speaking of metaphor, Bob's refer­ mental line has been crossed. One ence to "primitive" people eating brains characteristic of New Age thinking is to gain intelligence leads me to suppose that it robs metaphors of their potential Bob to be relatively naive on mytholog­ philosophical value as analogies and ical teachings. Such an act (much like hauls them into the precise, factual the wearing of an animal's skin, etc.) is world of science, where myths no longer a metaphor of taking on the character­ have even a symbolic leg to stand on. istics of that animal, not a literal If this makes sense, consider Joseph assumption of increasing brain power. Campbell. Our thinking becomes The difficulty for most people is in muddled, Campbell suggests, when we realizing that most myths (including "concretize" metaphors. To take myths, today's active religions) were never metaphors, and symbols seriously meant to be read literally. doesn't mean to take them literally. My objection to Bob's treatment of Christopher J. Sirola Campbell does not diminish my appre­ Department of Physics ciation of the many sound points Bob and Astronomy makes in his valuable article. I don't buy University of Pittsburgh everything in Joseph Campbell's work Pittsburgh, Pa. either. But why decry this thoughtful maverick as New Age? We need to separate philosophers from fruitcakes. When Bill Moyers asked Joseph Camp­ bell if he believed in reincarnation, Gary Hubbell Campbell replied that he believed in the Kent, Ohio metaphor of reincarnation, a significant qualification. Campbell's scholarly exploration of mythic symbols is a far I am distressed at Murray L. Bob's cry from the channeling fads of pam­ implication of Joseph Campbell's Power pered celebrities. of Myth as some kind of witchcraft by Sadly, Murray L. Bob's listing of New juxtaposing Campbell in the same Age tendencies assigns Campbell to the paragraph with Shirley MacLaine. same level of hell as faith healers, con Campbell is a historian, not a voodoo artists, and—God help us—Shirley shaman. He tells us that myth has had MacLaine. Bob has neglected to define a tremendous hold on the human mind a key term. What is "New Age"? through the ages. But he urges us to We can't say New Age is what sells treat myth as myth and not concretize

210 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 it by turning it into religion as humans the majority does not rule." Science is are wont to do. characterized by the progressive expan­ Also, Bob's shotgun approach to sion of our ability to predict the behavior addiction and AA-type groups seems to of the physical world. I do not believe put him into the league of those who that this progress, however, should be look at addiction as a problem requiring interpreted as some sort of asymptotic only willpower for recovery. AA has approach to grasping "nature's own helped thousands overcome their addic­ language." After all, progress has come tions through voluntary action. If Bob by way of major revisions in the way doesn't like the "higher power" aspect we think of nature (for example, from of AA, I would recommend to him the thinking of gravity as action at a new group, Secular Organizations for distance, to gravity as a property of the Sobriety, or SOS. geometry of space-time, to gravity as a manifestation of local gauge invari- Paul Popenoe ance). Lafayette, Calif. Gardner accuses me of promulgating the "wild theme . . . that physicists do not discover the laws of nature. They Relativism in science invent them. Newton didn't discover the law of gravity. He invented it." But Martin Gardner clearly had such a good Gardner himself says, "Nobody denies time making me the bete noire of any that scientists invent theories by crea­ rational person in the Summer 1990 tive acts similar to those of poets and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ("Relativism in artists." So why is he so unhappy when Science") that I feel almost like the I say the same thing? Perhaps he would Grinch who stole Christmas for saying have been less enraged had I said that that I agree with much of what he says, what Newton did discover is that the and many of the points he seems to think law of gravity he invented is a useful he is making against my views were also way of describing the world, including made in my book. among many other things, the motion Gardner concludes his argument of the planets. If Gardner wants to say against "relativism" by saying, "Nobody that Newton invented a theory whose denies that science is a human tool, or success demonstrated that he had that its history is influenced by cultural discovered a law of nature, then Gardner forces in all sorts of interesting ways. will presumably have to add that this Nobody denies that scientists invent law of nature was repealed as a result theories by creative acts similar to those of Einstein's work. of poets and artists. But once a theory I think part of the problem may be is formulated, it is tested by a process that Gardner takes literally statements that, in the long run, is singularly free I use metaphorically. He quotes me of cultural bias. False theories are not talking about the mutability of history. shot down by a change in language, but Certainly he does not disagree that we, by the universe." I heartily agree and like the historians in Orwell's 1984, say so at length in Inventing Reality. I continually rewrite history. Presumably would prefer not to use the word false, Gardner is upset by my statement that however, which I reserve for mathe­ the past is transformed by language. But matical and logical proofs. I think the this is simply a metaphorical way of word limited is both more accurate and pointing out that the past is only a less pejorative. present reality in the form of a collection I do not "see the history of science of artifacts and the stories historians tell as a series of cultural preferences." I about those artifacts. The past, insofar thought I made that clear in the exten­ as we are concerned, is transformed sive section where I approvingly quote when new evidence leads historians to Sam Ting's statement, "Science is one rewrite history. of the few areas of human life where Gardner becomes very exercised

Winter 1991 211 when I say, "The laws of physics are Mr. Gardner replies: our laws not nature's." He concludes from this that I am saying, "We are the The basic disagreement between Gregory and gods who shape reality." But his inter­ me is that he is a pragmatist who defines pretation is nonsense. The laws of truth as the passing of tests, whereas I, physics are our laws because, as Einstein following Aristotle, define truth as corres­ says, they are "free creations of the pondence with an external world. The very human mind, and are not, however it title of Gregory's book, Inventing Reality, may seem, uniquely determined by the implies that "reality" is a product of human external world." Of course we are not experience rather than a structure "out there" free to say whatever we like—not if we toward which science moves closer and closer want what we say to lead to predictions in its descriptions, even though it may never that agree with experiments. Nature reach absolute accuracy. constrains, but does not dictate. Gregory writes that "insofar as we are I do have a fundamental disagree­ concerned" history is transformed when ment with Gardner, however. I do not historians revise their opinions. But this is find relativity and quantum mechanics trivial and obvious. It means no more than to be "a benign refinement" of classical that historians change their minds. The physics. I do not think that Einstein deeper question, which Gregory evades, is simply "added qualifications to New­ whether there is a fixed, timeless past that tonian physics." Einstein fundamentally is unaltered by changing opinions. altered our views of the nature of space Gregory seems unaware that pragma­ and time and shook a deep-seated belief tism has been on the skids for half a century, that Newton had somehow discerned not so much because it is "wrong," but the mind of God when he invented because it is too confusing a language. Look mechanics. The only way in which into any recent book on the philosophy of Einstein's general relativity resembles science, and you are unlikely to find a single Newton's theory of gravity is that the reference to John Dewey. As to reasons for two theories make similar predictions the decline, which I attribute mainly to under certain circumstances—conceptu­ Alfred Tarski's precise definition of semantic ally and mathematically the theories are truth, see the chapter on "Why I Am Not profoundly different. Quantum theory a Pragmatist" in my Whys of a Philo­ made even more fundamental changes sophical Scrivener. in our view of the physical world, It goes without saying that Newton eliminating the hope that we could "invented" the law of gravity and Einstein predict the behavior of individual atomic "invented" relativity, in the sense that they systems and forcing us to accept that thought of these conjectures and wrote them some physical systems can never be truly down. The deeper question, which Gregory "separated." ignores, is whether in devising conjectures, The view of language and reality I and having them strongly confirmed by explore in the book is a product of the testing, scientists "discover" facts and laws momentous impact that relativity and that slowly get closer to accurate descriptions quantum mechanics have had on our of a structure "out there," not made by us. understanding of the physical world. I Astronomers may alter their opinions about share much of my view of this impact the mass of Pluto, but that doesn't mean with Bohr, Heinsenberg, and Einstein, that Pluto keeps altering its mass. If science as well as with almost every contem­ is not getting asymptotically closer to porary physicist. (I am not familiar with objective truth, there is no way to explain Shirley MacLaine's views on fundamen­ its steadily increasing predictive power. tal physics.) It is a commonsense realism, assumed by almost all philosophers and scientists, and Bruce Gregory by all ordinary people, that Gregory is Harvard-Smithsonian Center reluctant to affirm. If he did so, he would for Astrophysics have called his book "Discovering Reality." Cambridge, Mass. In his letter, Gregory backs away from his

212 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 more outrageous statements by calling them ever prove anything about the relation­ metaphors, but that is precisely the trouble. ship between child abuse and MPD. Such metaphors serve no useful purpose. We all know that science is fallible and keeps Laurie Endicott Thomas changing. Using metaphors that blur the Edison, NJ. distinction between what scientists say and what writers of stories say is to introduce nothing but confusion to the understanding That curious Urantia Book of science. The letters about The Urantia Book from D. Julio Edwards and Terry Kruger (Summer 1990) show both strongly Multiple personality believe in the revealed truth of that disorder curious volume. No one can argue rationally against private religious In "Police Pursuit of Satanic Crime, Part convictions, which are not subject to II" (Summer 1990), Robert Hicks cites evidential inquiry. However, I noted Goleman as considering epilepsy to be implied claims in favor of UB's "truth" a symptom accompanying personality supposedly based on rational evaluation changes in persons with multiple per­ of evidence. This is a whole different sonality disorder (MPD). Perhaps he has ballgame—and this particular game has it backward. Maybe the signs and already been played out. From symptoms he attributes to MPD actually November 1989 through March 1990. result from the epilepsy. Psychomotor I corresponded at some length with epileptic seizures are often unrecognized Edwards and with Kruger regarding and untreated. evidence in favor of UB's ideas. The Did any of the investigators who exchange typified what happens when reported that MPD results from physical occult claims in all their absurdity are and sexual abuse during childhood taken at face value and examined under produce any corroborating evidence of the everyday standards of science and abuse? (I suppose that comparison with logic. The Kansas City Committee for a control group is too much to ask for.) Skeptical Inquiry collected this corres­ Or did they simply accept the testimony pondence in a pamphlet, "UB ... or Not of one or more of the "personalities"? UB? (That Was the Question)," and Because many of the "personalities" distributed copies to all similar groups seem to be delusional or to have serious listed in the back of this journal. memory disorders, this acceptance may Actually, only half the dialogue was be unwise. The investigators may have included, since Edwards and Kruger selected the accounts that jibed with ignored or declined repeated requests to their theories about childhood trauma. publish their own (presumably) best Perhaps the investigators unwittingly knowledgeable position in favor of UB. encouraged subjects to confabulate or Plausible reasons for this disinclination even fabricate memories of traumatic on the part of articulate, pro-UB spokes­ experiences that did not occur. In men will, I feel, suggest themselves to particular, I doubt any revelations that readers of the remaining material. occur only after years of in-depth It is therefore interesting to note the therapy. same tired arguments being recycled Even if an investigator somehow without a blush by the same proponents, managed to prove that a person had been and the same dubious cosmic scenario abused during childhood, it would not being touted yet more fervently despite prove that the abuse caused the disorder. (apparently) unanswerable challenges to Because MPD (unlike child abuse) is rare its evidential basis. and arises long after the proposed causes, it is difficult to study prospec­ Sam Gill tively. I therefore doubt that anyone will Kansas City, Mo.

Winter 1991 213 A year or so ago I suggested to the who is buying the latest Shirley SKEPTICAL INQUIRER that if it had not MacLaine opus or the newest book on already done so it might have a look at crystal power. Instead, I try to refer The Urantia Book. Whether or not my them to a more rational book on the suggestion sparked it, I want to thank subject if I can, and without trying to Martin Gardner, and the editors, for his impose on their right to buy whatever painstaking and quite charitable critique they want. Luckily, we do carry a large of that pleonastic hodgepodge of fun­ number of skeptical titles, mainly from damentalist flapdoodle. Prometheus Books. Before joining the chorus of Of course, our metaphysical and Gardner's castigators, one would do well occult section is very large, as in most to have a look at this monumental bookstores, and very popular. But, it condescension in the Foreword of The seems to me, more and more people are Urantia Book, by the E.T. known as the finding the skeptical titles mixed in with "Chief of the Corps of Superuniverse the credulous ones and are buying them. Personalities": We've sold out of Randi's Faith-Healers twice in the past six months or so. Our In the minds of the mortals of Uran­ copies of Gardner's Science: Good, Bad tia—that being the name of your & Bogus are gone now, too. Also, on my world—there exists great confusion newsstand I carry the SKEPTICAL respecting the meaning of such terms INQUIRER. I place six copies with the New as God, divinity, and deity.... Because Age magazines, and six with the science/ of their [Urantians'] conceptual pov­ nature titles. And, if I have any copies erty associated with so much idea­ tional confusion. . . ." left over when the returns are due (usually just one copy), I strip the covers for credit and put the magazines in our Conceptual poverty about the meaning employee break room (where it is read). of the word God? Shades of Aquinas, You can rest assured that, here in the Augustine, Spinoza! Tampa Bay area at least, people are using I hope Martin Gardner will give us their intelligence more than you'd think. more on Urantia and its claim to extraterrestrial authorship. Although my name is the same, I am Greg Simpson not the MJ-12 UFOlogist. Clearwater, Fla.

William L. Moore Hemet, Calif. Undergraduate course I am developing a lower-level under­ graduate course on "Science and Pseu- A book-seller's thank you doscience" that will be part of a new Science and Society program at the As a reader of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER University of North Carolina at Wil­ for the past few years, I want to say mington. Oriented toward liberal-arts thank you for such a fascinating and students who have only a limited thought-provoking magazine. background in science, it will describe I am currently the newsstand super­ basic characteristics of the scientific visor and a sales clerk in a large book­ method and analyze various areas that store in Clearwater, Florida, and see we would generally characterize as what the public is buying in the para­ pseudoscientific. "Fringe" areas will also normal and fringe-science realm. Not be discussed. One overall goal is to help surprisingly, we do sell quite a lot of the students develop their own evalua­ credulous books on all the various New tion skills so that they will more critically Age subjects. Needless to say, it's dif­ analyze claims to knowledge. ficult at times for me not to openly At this time, I am considering McCain denigrate a customer at the cash register and Segal's The Game of Science, Stano-

214 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 vich's How to Think Straight about fiction (The Wolfen, The Hunger, Cat Psychology, and Radner and Radner's Magic) and apocalyptic or "doomsday" Science and Unreason as texts, with novels (Warday, Nature's End). By the additional liberal readings from SI. time he conceived Communion, the alien- I would appreciate receiving course abduction genre (and the related "satanic outlines from anyone who has taught cult-survivor" genre) was a hot seller. a similar course or any suggestions that Is it the word "true" in the book's and SI readers might have, including topics movie's subtitles that has stimulated all that should be covered, good articles to this serious academic analysis? I could assign, and classroom exercises that write an article on the nature of "truth" would give students firsthand experi­ and "experience" from an anthropolog­ ence in the difference between seeing ical perspective that would justify his use and believing. of the word (and our credulity). But based on simple probability, and the solid Robert T. Brown evidence available, the first explanation Department of Psychology to consider is that Strieber is continuing University of North Carolina what he has demonstrably done so well. Wilmington, NC 28403-3297 Like Stephen King, Strieber's success lies not in a sparkling writing style, nor in careful attention to logic or chronol­ Strieber's joke ogy, but in an extremely clever imag­ ination. And the successful writer of Now we have three serious academic fiction, recognizing the commercial discussions of the real meaning of value in publicity, may act publicly from Whitley Strieber's "experiences" as this imagination, "as a. tool of his craft," described in Communion, the book and as Story put it. the movie. Robert Baker (SI, Winter Whitley Strieber must be delighted 1987-88) offers some explanations from at all this very serious discussion of his psychology, labeling them "hypnopom- work. pic hallucinations." Bill Ellis (Spring 1988), through the perspective of Phillips Stevens, Jr. comparative folklore, urges us to rec­ Department of Anthropology ognize that even responsible, stable University of Buffalo, SUNY people can have unusual perceptual Buffalo, N.Y. experiences. And technical writer Ronald Story (Spring 1990) says he believes that Strieber "is giving an Airship sightings honest account of his hallucinations and delusions." Regarding Robert Bartholomew's article All these writers are sincere, and all (Winter 1990) on the 1896-97 airship base their assessments in sound aca­ hysteria, I've seen a reference to what demic theory, and their accounts are seems to have been a "third wave" of interesting and valuable. But only Ellis such sightings in July/August 1897, well acknowledges (and dismisses) an earlier, after the flap ended in the United States simpler, and far more likely explanation and centered in British Columbia, for Strieber's narratives. Ernest Taves Canada. Numerous sightings were (Fall 1987), following the principle of reported over a matter of weeks in Occam's Razor (correctly, pace Ellis), Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver showed that the best explanation is that Island, from a steamer at sea, by most Strieber is "playing a joke" on his of the local dignitaries of Rossland (in readers. the B.C. interior), and by "thousands of But even this is a level above the most Vancouver citizens." As in the parent likely explanation. Come on, everybody, American craze, many observers back to basics: Whitley Strieber is a assumed they were seeing August successful writer of science and horror Andree's Arctic balloon, or else some

Winter 1991 215 new invention being secretly tested by Quakes as punishment night. Descriptions varied from "a luminous globe apparently about four Robert Sheaffer in "Psychic Vibrations" feet in diameter" to "a very bright red (Summer 1990) mentions a creationist's star surrounded by a luminous halo, interpretation of the October 1989 cigar-shaped," occasionally dropping a earthquake in San Francisco. There is "shower of sparks like the spluttering a long history of such misinterpretation. of an arc light." In 1906, when the great earthquake and My source is an article titled "British fire wiped out much of San Francisco, Columbia's First Visitors from Outer it was generally assumed among the Space," in a popularized local history religious community that this most magazine called Canada West (D. devastating earthquake in U.S. history Pethick, vol. 9, no. 1, Spring 1979). The was God's punishment against the most article does not, unfortunately, provide wicked community in the country. Yet full references, but most of its quotes while almost every building in the appear to be taken from the Victoria northeast quarter of the city was Colonist. As the title indicates, the author destroyed, a portion of the notorious (perhaps predictably) gives the 1897 flap Barbary Coast, including a famous much the same treatment as others have whisky distillery, remained unscathed. given Ezekiel's wheel-within-a-wheel or This led a San Francisco newspaper to Elijah's fiery chariot—in fact, reference publish the following poem: is made to both those stories in the article's first paragraph. Altogether, the If, as they say, God spanked the town piece is a nice second-order example of For being overfrisky, Bartholomew's "redefinition of the Why did He burn His churches down ambiguous." And save Hotaling's Whisky? To do my ancestors credit, other interpretations put forward at the time Hotaling Place, an alley that extends included ignis fatuus, cloud reflections of north from the Transamerica Pyramid surface-based lights, and mirages pro­ building, was named to honor the famed duced in the hot midsummer air. The distillery. Thought you'd want to know. Colonist interviewed "prominent mem­ bers of the [Victoria] natural history John McCarroll society," who replied as one "that there San Francisco, Calif. was nothing mysterious about the light seen, but that people had been prepared for something uncanny and conse­ The letters column is a forum for views on quently felt bound to see it." matters raised in previous issues. Brief letters (less than 250 words) are welcome. We Rebecca Bradley reserve the right to edit longer ones. They English Department should be typed double-spaced. Due to the Kuwait University volume of letters, not all can be published. Safat, Kuwait Address them to Letters to the Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, 3025 Palo Alto (This letter was received before the Iraqi Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87111. invasion of Kuwait.—ED)

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STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, Aver. no. Actual no. MANAGEMENT, AND CIRCULATION copies of copies of (Required by 39 U.S.C.) each issue single issue during published preceding nearest Date of filing: September 28,1990 12 months filing date Title: The Skeptical Inquirer A. Total no. copies Frequency of issue: Quarterly printed Complete mailing address of known office of (Net press run) 42,060 43,392 publication: 3159 Bailey Ave., Buffalo, NY 14215 B. Paid and/or Complete mailing address of the headquarters of requested circulation general business offices of the publisher: 1. Sales through 3159 Bailey Ave., P.O. Box 229. Buffalo, NY dealers and carriers. 14215 street vendors and Publisher CSICOP, Inc. (Committee for the counter sales 1.156 1,215 Scientific Investigation of Claims of the 2. Mail subscriptions 33.795 34,317 Paranormal), 3159 Bailey Ave., P.O. Box 229, C. Total paid and/or Buffalo, NY 14215 requested circulation 34,951 35,523 Editor Kendrick Frazier, 3025 Palo Alto Dr., N.E., D. Free distribution by mail, Albuquerque, NM 87111 carrier, or other means. Managing Editor Doris Doyle, P.O. Box 229, samples, complimentary. Buffalo, NY 14215 and other free copies 2,394 2.579 Owner CSICOP, Inc. (Committee for the E. Total distribution Scientific Investigation of Claims of the (Sum of C and O) 37.345 38,111 Paranormal, Inc.), F. Copies not distributed 3159 Bailey Ave.. P.O. Box 229, Buffalo, NY 1. Office use, left over. 14215 unaccounted, spoiled Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other after printing 4,715 4,281 security holders: None 2. Return from news agents 0 0 G. Total (Sum of E, F 1 and 2) 42.060 42,392 CSICOP News

Skepticism in Europe: Brussels Conference Tackles Diverse Issues PAUL KURTZ

aranormal beliefs are as widely information and research data. These accepted on the European con­ organizations are relatively small, but Ptinent as they are in other parts virtually all of them publish their own of the world. Although many Euro­ magazines or newsletters, which have peans suppose that their societies are an average circulation of 500 to 1,000 too sophisticated to fall for the kind readers. These include the Skeptic, of errant nonsense prevalent else­ published in the U.K., Skepter in the where, a recent congress of European Netherlands, the NIVFO Bulletin in skeptics demonstrated how false this Norway, La Alternativa in Spain, supposition is. Europeans are appalled CICAP in Italy, Skeptikko in Finland, at the steady stream of books, movies, and Skeptiker in Germany. and television programs that come The influence of the skeptics from North America touting the groups far outweighs their numbers; paranormal, and they are also familiar for they are often the only reliable with the superstitious belief systems source of scientific information about that persist in the Third World. Yet popular paranormal claims. Their something analogous exists in Europe. services are constantly sought out by After all, since Europe was prey to the other scientists, members of the most violent forms of ideological media, and interested laypersons. propaganda earlier in this century, CSICOP in no small way is respon­ from fascism to Stalinism, why should sible for the formation of these it be immune to the paranormal groups—most often a group was mythologies of today? Some European formed as a result of the efforts of newspapers seem even more sensa­ European readers of the SKEPTICAL tionalist, if that is possible, than those INQUIRER and/or visits from members in the United States. of CSICOP's Executive Council, most In response to this rising tide of often James Randi, Ray Hyman, or paranormal belief, in recent years we myself, or from former executive have witnessed the formation of 19 director Mark Plummer. We would European skeptics groups, including like to point out that these autono­ one in the Soviet Union. Although mous groups speak only for them­ entirely independent and autono­ selves and that CSICOP is not re­ mous, these groups work coopera­ sponsible and cannot be held liable for tively with CSICOP and the what is said by these groups or SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and exchange individuals.

218 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 The fourth conference of European of alternative health cures, such as skeptics was convened August 10 to holistic medicine and homeopathy. In 11, 1990, in Brussels, Belgium. It was our view, adequate scientific verifica­ cosponsored by CSICOP and SKEPP tion has not been made to support (Studielcving Voor Kritsche Evalvtie Van these fields. The European skeptics at Pseudowetenschop en het Paranormal), our meeting agreed that many of these the newly formed Flemish-speaking practices can be dangerous to the group in Belgium. There is also a public health. Unfortunately, govern­ French-speaking skeptics group head­ ment and health professionals are quartered in Brussels, the Comite Para; hesitant to criticize questionable and, although this group was not therapies because of the economic and active in organizing the conference, it political power of their advocates. did have representatives in attend­ Indeed, Amardeo Sarma, head of the ance. The conference brought skeptics group in western Germany, together some 120 delegates from 20 pointed out that when the new nations, including 14 European coun­ European Parliament convenes, it will tries. We met on the campus of the enact legislation for all of Europe. He Free University of Brussels (Vrieje is fearful that this will permit free Universteit Bruxelles). The three pre­ reign to quacks and charlatans, who vious European congresses were held are now permitted to practice in some during the 1980s in Paris, London, and countries and are regulated or re­ Bad Tolz, near Munich. stricted in others. The opening session on Saturday, Lars Jepson, of Denmark, described August 11, was devoted to "The State the situation in his country. He said of Paranormal Belief in Europe." As that, although the Danes have a the moderator of this session, I tradition of rationalism and enlight­ pointed out that science is interna­ enment, the New Age has recently tional in scope, as is skepticism. The made considerable inroads on the problem we face—the proliferation of public consciousness. He focused on paranormal claims and the need for the use of homeopathy and other responsible, scientific evaluation of "natural medicines" and also took them—is worldwide, particularly so issue with the government's endorse­ since, when a paranormal claim is ment of dowsing. Alain Mey, a repre­ made, it is immediately known from sentative from France, deplored the New York to Paris and from Moscow sale of homeopathic medicines in most to Beijing. This in no small way is due pharmacies in his country. to the international wire services, but Michael Hutchinson described the the problem is exacerbated by the fact level of belief in Britain. He pointed that the media are dominated by five out that the U.K. group was the first or six conglomerates who package and of the European skeptics organiza­ sell the paranormal to the public tions and is now in its tenth year, with worldwide. In any case, the purpose branches in Manchester, Wessex, and of CSICOP is to keep alive the interest Wales, and includes the London Stu­ in the scientific approach to such dent Skeptics group. Of special inter­ claims and especially to cultivate in the est is the considerable impact that wider public an appreciation for the skepticism has had on the British use of the scientific method and critical press. Much of this is no doubt due thinking in appraising claims to truth. to the valiant efforts of James Randi, Of special concern in this session who over the years has been a regu­ was the popularity among Europeans larly featured guest on many tele-

Winter 1991 219 offered by the French telephone company to its more than five million subscribers, who can ask questions on any paranormal topic—from acupunc­ ture and horoscopes to parapsychol­ ogy, UFOs, and fringe-health cures. Professor Broch provides information based on careful scientific research. Professor Cornelis de Jager, profes­ sor of space research at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, gave a stimulating, amusing talk on "Astrology, Pyramidology, and Cyclopsophy." He analyzed the methods and the criteria used in scientific research and discussed some of the most popular pseudosciences. He pointed out that the "religion of the Great Pyramid" was based on the Susan Blackmore reviews her research on out-of-body experiences. "accidental coincidence of the pyra­ mid's structural data with funda­ vision programs in the U.K. Indeed, mental astronomical data," and he the television production company then went on to develop an analogous Open Media covered the Brussels pseudoscience based on his bicycle, conference and is building an entire which showed equally surprising coin­ program around CSICOP. Imme­ cidences. diately after the Brussels meeting, Ray Hyman, of the University of Open Media came to Buffalo to film Oregon, discussed how to be a "good a segment at CSICOP headquarters. skeptic." It is important, he said, that In Britain, the London Observer, the we be fair-minded and careful in Manchester Guardian, the Independent, appraising the research of others. and Reuters news service reported the James Randi highlighted some of his conference. The event was also investigations of the paranormal. covered by newspapers and television Afterward Randi was extensively stations in Belgium and by reporters questioned by members of the from the Netherlands, West Ger­ audience about his recent criticism of many, Portugal, the Middle East, and a homeopathy experiment conducted elsewhere. at a French laboratory. His investiga­ The second conference session on tion was done in cooperation with the Saturday dealt with a variety of topics. British science magazine Nature, quite Susan Blackmore, a psychologist from independent of CSICOP. the University of Bristol in the U.K., Astronomers Jean-Claude Pecker reviewed her research on out-of-body and Evry Schatzman of the French experiences and described her efforts Academy of Sciences were next on the to explain this phenomenon in normal program. Professor Pecker, an out­ psychological terms. standing critic of astrology, focused on Henri Broch, a physicist from the astrology's misuse of statistics. University of Nice, described his work Schatzman attempted to explain the on a special data bank. His Minitel rise of paranormal belief in sociological computer information service is terms. He feels it is due in part to the

220 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 gates from the Soviet Union were also present during the earlier session but did not make a presentation. At a special reception on Friday evening, August 10, two CSICOP awards were presented: Cornelis de Jager, head of the Dutch skeptics group, received the In Praise of Reason award for his notable contri­ butions to science and his vigorous criticism of pseudoscience. Henri Broch received the Distinguished Skeptic award for his pioneer work with Minitel and making scientific critiques of the paranormal available to a wider audience in France. Some important practical results came out of the Brussels conference. Henri Broch describes Minitel, his computer­ Much of this is consistent with the ized databank on the paranormal. new mood in Europe as the unification of the continent approaches. Efforts diminished influence of the scientific are being made to coordinate political, and academic community and to the economic, scientific, and cultural banality of mass culture. activities in time for "Europe 1992." Professor E. Veermish, a philo­ A similar attitude prevails among sopher at the University of Ghent, skeptics groups. The German- argued that many paranormal claims speaking delegates from Germany, should be rejected a priori because Austria, and Switzerland decided at they are contradicted by basic scien­ tific laws. Some members of the audience sharply disagreed and argued that this should not preclude inves­ tigation, since there may be a need to modify scientific principles. It was clear that there were two brands of skepticism being displayed here. The Italian and Spanish groups reported that they have received a good deal of national attention in their countries. The representatives from Italy included three skeptical activists under the age of 21. The Spanish group worked closely with faculty members of the University of Balboa. Of special interest was the paper given by Dr. A. Gertler, head of the skeptics group in Rossdorf, Germany (formerly East Germany). Gertler discussed the dangers of alternative medicine to the public health. Dele­

Winter 1991 221 the congress to expand their cooper­ October 1991 in Amsterdam. This ation by making Skeptiker magazine conference will be organized by the available to a wider German-speaking Netherlands group. Both the Spanish population. The French-speaking and Italian groups have volunteered representatives from France, Belgium, to host a European meeting in 1992. and Switzerland also discussed Coming on the heels of the skeptics expanding Afis magazine, published conference in Mexico City in by Michel Rouze, and making it November 1989, the Brussels meeting available to a wider readership. demonstrated anew the key roles that The Spanish delegates discussed the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and CSICOP with a member of the Mexican group continue to play in increasing the ways of improving the information public's appreciation of scientific re­ flow between Spain and Latin America search and critical thinking and the and making their magazines better need for cooperation among skeptics known to each other's readers. The throughout the world. Dutch- and Flemish-speaking Belgians likewise resolved to work together Paul Kurtz is the founder and chairman more cooperatively and to expand the of CSICOP and professor of philosophy readership of the magazine Skepsis. at the State University of New York at The conferees decided to meet in Buffalo.

WHO'S THERE?f

222 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Vol. 15 Local, Regional, and National Organizations The organizations listed below have aims c/o Ho & Moss, Attorneys, 72 Kneeland similar to those of CSICOP and work in St., Boston, MA 02111. cooperation with CSICOP but are indepen­ MICHIGAN. MSU Proponents of Rational dent and autonomous. They are not affiliated Inquiry and the Scientific Method with CSICOP, and representatives of these (PRISM), Dave Marks, 221 Agriculture organizations cannot speak on behalf of Hall, Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, CSICOP. MI 48824. Great Lakes Skeptics, Carol Lynn, contact, 1264 Bedford Rd., Grosse UNITED STATES Pointe Park, MI 48230. ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Emory Kim- MINNESOTA. Minnesota Skeptics, Robert W. brough, 3550 Watermelon Road, Apt. McCoy, 549 Turnpike Rd., Golden Valley, 29A, Northport, AL 35476 (205-759- MN 55416. St. Kloud ESP Teaching 2624). Investigation Committee (SKEPTIC), ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptical Society Jerry Mertens, Coordinator, Psychology (TUSKS), James McGaha, Chairman, Dept., St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, 2509 N. Campbell Ave., Suite #16, MN 56301. Tucson, AZ 85719. Phoenix Skeptics, Michael Stackpole, Chairman, P.O. Box MISSOURI. Kansas City Committee for 62792, Phoenix, AZ 85082-2792. Skeptical Inquiry, Verle Muhrer, Chair­ man, 2658 East 7th, Kansas City, MO CALIFORNIA. Bay Area Skeptics, Rick Moen, 64124. Gateway Skeptics, Chairperson, Secretary, 4030 Moraga, San Francisco, Steve Best, 6943 Amherst Ave., Univer­ CA 94122-3928. Berkeley Skeptics, Daniel sity City, MO 63130. Bain, Contact, U.C. Berkeley, 300 Eshle- man Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720. East Bay NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science & Skeptics Society, Daniel Sabsay, President, Reason, John Geohegan, Chairman, 450 P.O. Box 20989, Oakland, CA 94620 (415- Montclaire SE, Albuquerque, NM 87108; 420-0702). Sacramento Skeptics Society, John Smallwood, 320 Abbott Road, Santa Bob Lee, President, 1417 57th St., Sacra­ Fe, NM 87501. mento, CA 95819. Southern California NEW YORK. Finger Lakes Association for Skeptics, Susan Shaw, Secretary, P.O. Box Critical Thought, Ken McCarthy, 107 5523, Pasadena, CA 91107; San Diego Williams St., Groton, NY 13073. New Coordinator, Ernie Ernissee, 5025 Mount York Area Skeptics (NYASk), William Hay Drive, San Diego, CA 92117. Wade, contact person, 97 Fort Hill Road, Huntington, NY 11743-2205. Western COLORADO and WYOMING. Rocky Mountain New York Skeptics, Tim Madigan, Chair­ Skeptics, Bela Scheiber, President, P.O. man, 3159 Bailey Ave., Buffalo, NY 14215. Box 7277, Boulder, CO 80306. NORTH CAROLINA. N.C. Skeptics, Michael DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, DELAWARE, MARY­ J. Marshall, Pres., 3318 Colony Dr., LAND, and VIRGINIA. National Capital Jamestown, NC 27282. Area Skeptics, c/o D. W. "Chip" Denman, 8006 Valley Street, Silver Spring, MD OHIO. South Shore Skeptics, Page Stephens, 20910. 6006 Fir Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44102 (216-631-5987). FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics, Gary Posner, PENNYSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating 6219 Palma Blvd., #210, St. Petersburg, Committee of Pittsburgh (PICP), Richard FL 33715 (813-867-3533). Busch, Chairman, 5841 Morrowfield GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics, Keith Blanton, Ave., #302, Pittsburgh, PA 15217 (412- Vice Pres., P.O. Box 654, Norcross, GA 521-2334). Delaware Valley Skeptics, 30091. Brian Siano, Secretary, Apt. 3F, 4406 ILLINOIS. Midwest Committee for Rational Walnut St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. Inquiry, Ralph Blasko, Chairman, P.O. SOUTH CAROLINA. South Carolina Commit­ Box 2792, Des Plaines, IL 60017-2792. tee to Investigate Paranormal Claims, INDIANA. Indiana Skeptics, Robert Craig, John Safko, 3010 Amherst Ave., Colum­ Chairperson, 5401 Hedgerow Drive, bia, SC 29205. Indianapolis, IN 46226. TENNESEE. Tennessee Valley Skeptics, KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Daniel O'Ryan, Secretary, P.O. Box Educators and Skeptics (KASES), Chair­ 50291, Knoxville, TN 37950. man, Prof. Robert A. Baker, 3495 Cas- tleton Way North, Lexington, KY 40502. TEXAS. Austin Society to Oppose Pseudo- science (ASTOP), Lawrence Cranberg, LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of President, P.O. Box 3446, Austin, TX Rational Inquiry and Scientific Methods 78764. Houston Association for Scientific (BR-PRISM), Henry Murry, Chairman, Thinking (HAST), Darrell Kachilla, P.O. P.O. Box 15594, Baton Rouge, LA 70895. Box 541314, Houston, TX 77254. North MASSACHUSETTS. Skeptical Inquirers of New England, Laurence Moss, Chairman, (continued on next page) Texas Skeptics, John Blanton, President, INDIA. B. Premanand, Chairman, 10, Chet- P.O. Box 111794, Carrollton, TX 75011- tipalayam Rd., Podanur 641-023 Coimba- 1794. West Texas Society to Advance tore Tamil nadu. For other Indian organ­ Rational Thought, Co-Chairmen: George izations contact B. Premanand for details. Robertson, 6500 Eastridge Rd., #73, IRELAND. Irish Skeptics, Peter O'Hara, Odessa, TX 79762-5219 (915-367-3519); Contact, Dept. of Psychiatry, Airedale Don Naylor, 404 N. Washington, Odessa, General Hospital, Steeton, Keighly, West TX 79761. Yorkshire, UK BD20 6TD. WASHINGTON. Northwest Skeptics, Philip ITALY. Comitato Italiano per il Controllo Haldeman, Chairman, T.L.P.O. Box 8234, delle Affermazioni sul Paranormale, Kirkland, WA 98034. Lorenzo Montali, Secretary, Via Ozanam WISCONSIN. Wisconsin Committee for 3, 20129 Milano, Italy. Rational Inquiry, Mary Beth Emmericks, MALTA. Contact: Vanni Pule', "Kabbalah," Convenor, 8465 N. 51st St., Brown Deer, 48 Sirti St., The Village, St. Julian's. WI 53223. MEXICO. Mexican Association for Skeptical Research (SOMIE), Mario Mendez- AUSTRALIA. National: Australian Skeptics, Acosta, Chairman, Apartado Postal 19- P.O. Box E 324 St. James, NSW 2000. 546, Mexico 03900, D.F. Regional: Australian Capital Territory, NETHERLANDS. Stichting Skepsis, Rob P.O. Box 555, Civic Square, 2608. New Nanninga, Secretary, Westerkade 20, South Wales, Newcastle Skeptics. Chair­ 9718 AS Groningen. person, Colin Keay, Physics Dept., New­ NEW ZEALAND. New Zealand Skeptics, castle University 2308. Queensland, P.O. Warwick Don, Dept. of Zoology, Univ. of Box 2180, Brisbane, 4001. South Austra­ Otago, Dunedin, NZ. lia, P.O. Box 91, Magill, S.A., 5072. NORWAY. NIVFO, K. Stenodegard, P.O. Victoria, P.O. Box 1555P, Melbourne, Box 2119, N-7001, Trondheim. Skepsis, Vic, 3001. West Australia, 25 Headingly Terje Emberland, Contact, P. B. 2943 Road, Kalamunda, W.A., 6076. Toyen 0608, Oslo 6. BELGIUM. Committee Para, J. Dommanget, SOUTH AFRICA. Assn. for the Rational Chairman, Observatoire Royal de Bel- Investigation of the Paranormal (ARIP), gique, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Marian Laserson, Secretary, 4 Wales St., Brussels. SKEPP, Tim Trachet, Chairman, Sandringham 2192. de Smet de Naeyerlaan 167, 1090 SPAIN. Alternativa Racional a las Pseudo- Brussels. sciencias (ARP), Luis Miguel Ortega, CANADA. National: Chairman, James E. Executive Director, P.O. Box 6.112, Alcock, Glendon College, York Univ., Bilbao. 2275 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario. SWEDEN. Vetenskap och folkbildning Regional: Alberta Skeptics, Elizabeth (Science and People's Education), Sven Anderson, P.O. Box 5571, Station A, Ove Hansson, Secretary, Sulite Imavagen Calgary, Alberta T2H 1X9. British 15, S-161 33 Bromma. Columbia Skeptics, Barry Beyerstein, SWITZERLAND. Conradin M. Beeli, Con­ Chairman, Box 86103, Main PO, North venor, Miihlemattstr. 20, CH-8903 Vancouver, BC, V7L 4J5. Manitoba Birmensdorf. Skeptics, John Toews, President, Box 92, UNITED KINGDOM. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER St. Vital, Winnipeg, Man. R2M 4A5. Representative, Michael J. Hutchinson, 10 Ontario Skeptics, Henry Gordon, Chair­ Crescent View, Loughton, Essex LG10 man, P.O. Box 505, Station Z, Toronto, 4PZ. British & Irish Skeptic Magazine, Ontario M5N 2Z6. Quebec Skeptics: Jean Editors, Toby Howard and Steve Don­ Ouellette, C.P. 282, Repentigny Quebec, nelly, 49 Whitegate Park, Flixton, Man­ J6A 7C6 (514-498-7977). chester M31 3LN. London Student Skep­ FINLAND. Skepsis, Matti Virtanen, Secre­ tics, Michael Howgate, President, 71 tary, Kuismakuja 1S18, SF-00720 Hoppers Rd., Winchmore Hill, London Helsinki. N21 3LP. Manchester Skeptics, Toby FRANCE. Comite Francais pour l'Etude des Howard, 49 Whitegate Park, Flixton, Phenomenes Paranormaux, Claude Manchester M31 3LN. Wessex Skeptics, Benski, Secretary-General, Merlin Gerin, Robin Allen, Dept. of Physics, Southamp­ RGE/A2 38050 Grenoble Cedex. ton University, Highfield, Southampton GERMANY. East German Skeptics, A. S09 5NH. West Country Skeptics, David Gertler, Chairman, Inst, for Forensic Medi­ Fisher, Convenor, 27 Elderberry Rd., cine, Humboldt Univ., Berlin 1040. Society Cardiff CF3 3RG, Wales. for the Scientific Investigation of Para- U.S.S.R. Edward Gevorkian, Science & Religion, Science (GWUP), Amardeo Sarma, Con­ Ulyanovskaya 43, Kor 4, 109004 venor, Postfach 1222, D-6101 Rossdorf. Moskova. The Committee for the Scientific investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Paul Kurtz, Chairman Scientific and Technical Consultants (partial list) William Sims Bainbridge, professor of sociology, Illinois State University. Gary Bauslaugh, dean of technical and academic education and professor of chemistry, Malaspina College, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada. Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Washington, D.C. Barry L. Beyerstein, professor of psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Martin Bridgstock, lecturer, School of Science, Griffith Observatory, Brisbane, Australia. Vern Bullough, dean of_natural and social sciences, SUNY College at Buffalo. Richard Busch, magician, Pittsburgh, Pa. Shawn Carlson, physicist, Berkeley, Calif.-Charles J. Cazeau, geologist, Tempe, Arizona. Ronald J. Crowley, professor of physics, California State University, Fullerton. Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. J. Dath, professor of engineering, Ecole Royale Militaire, Brussels, Belgium. Felix Ares De Bias, professor of computer science, University of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain. Sid Deutsch, professor of bioengineering, Tel Aviv University, Israel. ). Dommanget, astronomer, Royale Observatory, Brussels, Belgium. Natham J. Duker, assistant professor of pathology, Temple University. Barbara Eisenstadt, educator, Scotia, N.Y. Frederic A. Friedel, philosopher, Hamburg, West Germany. Robert E. Funk, anthropologist, New York State Museum & Science Service. Sylvio Garattini, director, Mario Negri Pharmacology Institute, Milan, Italy. Laurie Godfrey, anthropolo­ gist. University of Massachusetts. Gerald Goldin, mathematician, Rutgers University, New Jersey. Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president. Interstellar Media. Clyde F. Herreid, professor of biology, SUNY, Buffalo. Philip A. Ianna, assoc. professor of astronomy, Univ. of Virginia. William Jarvis, chairman, Public Health Service, Loma Linda University, California. I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, University of Saskatchewan. Richard H. Lange, chief of nuclear medicine, Ellis Hospital, Schenectady, New York. Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archaeology, University of So. California. Bernard J. Leikind, staff scientist, GA Technologies Inc., San Diego. Jeff Mayhew, computer consultant, Aloha, Oregon. Joel A. Moskowitz, director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas Mental Health Services, Los Angeles. Robert B. Painter, professor of microbiology. School of Medicine, University of California. John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and engineering, Iowa State University. Steven Pinker, assistant professor of psychology, MIT. James Pomerantz, professor of psychology, Rice University; Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy, SUNY, Buffalo. Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Robert H. Romer, professor of physics, Amherst College. Milton A. Rothman, physicist, Philadelphia, Pa. Karl Sabbagh, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England. Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and medicine. University of Wisconsin-Madison. Steven D. Schafersman, geologist, Houston. Chris Scott, statistician, London, England. Stuart D. Scott, Jr., associate professor of anthropology, SUNY, Buffalo. Al Seckel, physicist, Pasadena, Calif. Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, SUNY, Buffalo. Elie A. Shneour, biochemist; director, Biosystems Research Institute, La Jolla, California. Steven N. Shore, astronomer, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Md. Barry Singer, psychologist, Eugene, Oregon. Mark Slovak, astronomer. University of Wisconsin-Madison. Douglas Stalker, associate professor of philosophy. University of Delaware. Gordon Stein, physiologist, author; editor of the American Rationalist. Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Laboratory, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Ernest H. Taves, psychoanalyst, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics, University of Pittsburgh, editor of Language.

Subcommittees Astrology Subcommittee: Chairman, I. W. Kelly, Dept. of Educational Psychology, University of Saskat­ chewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 0W0, Canada. College and University Lecture Series Subcommittee: Chairman, Paul Kurtz; Lecture Coordinator; Ranjit Sandhu, CSICOP, Box 229, Buffalo, NY 14215-0229. Education Subcommittee: Chairman, Steven Hoffmaster, Physics Dept., Gonzaga Univ., Spokane, WA 99258-0001; Secretary, Wayne Rowe, Education Dept., Univ. of Oklahoma, 820 Van Vleet Oval, Norman, OK 73019. Electronics Communications Subcommittee: Chairman, Barry Beyerstein, Dept. of Psychology, Simon Fraser Univ., Burbaby, B.C. V5A 1S6 Canada; Secretary, Page Stevens, Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101. Legal and Consumer Protection Subcommittee: Chairman, Mark Plummer, c/o CSICOP, Box 229, Buffalo, NY 14215-0229. Paranormal Health Claims Subcommittee: Co-chairmen, William Jarvis, Professor of Health Education, Dept. of Preventive Medicine, Loma Linda University, Loma Linda, CA 93350, and Stephen Barrett, M.D., P.O. Box 1747, Allentown, PA 18105. Parapsychology Subcommittee: Chairman, Ray Hyman, Psychology Dept., Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97402. UFO Subcommittee: Chairman, Philip J. Klass, 404 "N" Street S.W., Washington, D.C. 20024. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation ©If

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal attempts to encourage the critical investigation of para­ normal and fringe-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of view and to disseminate factual information about the results of such inquiries to the scientific community and the public. To carry out these objectives the Committee: o Maintains a network of people o Convenes conferences and meetings interested in critically examining claims of the paranormal. o Publishes articles, monographs, and books that examine claims of the o Prepares bibliographies of published paranormal. materials that carefully examine such claims. o Does not reject claims on a prion o Encourages and commissions grounds, antecedent to inquiry, but research by objective and impartial rather examines them objectively and inquiry in areas where it is needed. carefully.

The Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization. THE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is its official journal.