Série des Documents de Travail n° 2020-03 The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Piracy Laws on Markets with Asymmetric Piracy: The Case of the French Movie Industry Christophe BELLEGO1 Romain DE NIJS2 Les documents de travail ne reflètent pas la position du CREST et n'engagent que leurs auteurs. Working papers do not reflect the position of CREST but only the views of the authors. 1 CREST-ENSAE. E-mail :
[email protected] 2 CREST - ENSAE and Ecole Polytechnique. E-mail:
[email protected] The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Piracy Laws on Markets with Asymmetric Piracy: The Case of the French Movie Industry * Christophe Bell´ego and Romain De Nijs March 7, 2020 Abstract Using the French anti-piracy law known as HADOPI as a natural experiment, we study the asymmetric effects of online piracy on cinema admissions. Applying four estimation strategies at different levels of observation (town, movie, country, and consumer), we find that the introduction of the law is associated with a 9% increase in the market share of American movies. This increase occurs at the expense of other movies. Although we find an increase in overall admissions, this effect is not statistically significant. These findings primarily originate from a high initial level of asymmetric piracy between American and other movies, which was attenuated by the anti-piracy law, resulting in a fiercer competition between movies. The results can also be explained by the behavior of younger consumers, and might be caused by consumers' budget or time constraints. We exclude positive shocks on the relative quality of American movies, the advent of 3D movies, supply side reactions by firms, and word of mouth effects of illegal downloads as explanations for this redistributive effect.