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THE INTRODUCTION OF BUILD TO RENT IN November 2019 Accelerating success. MAXIMISE THE POTENTIAL OF DATA

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Joanne Henderson Director | Research +61 410 391 093 [email protected] colliers.com.au/colliersedge RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019

By John Nicolopoulos In the United Kingdom, the Build to Rent sector has grown strongly Manager | Research since its inception in the early 2010s, and as of March 2019, there [email protected] were approximately 32,000 completed units/homes, a further 36,000 under construction and 74,000 in planning (British Property Representing the largest percentage of global workforce by Federation). approximately 2025, Millennials are set to drive demand of BTR Despite this success, BTR initially encountered numerous challenges, development many of which derived from local authorities who struggled to differentiate the model from Build to Sell and affordable housing. The result was the inability to create viable BTR developments. Changes An independent BTR policy and taxation framework is needed to from government and authorities in relation to planning framework enhance opportunities for delivery of supply and policy (lowering tax rates on BTR investments) has since improved sentiment and feasibility. In recent times, the model has attracted high levels of institutional investors looking to capitalise on Opportunities exist outside CBDs where land is more affordable and a deficit of higher quality rental supply and to lock in stable returns. rental demand is strong Whilst the sector continues to expand across the UK, the momentum of BTR in London has been driven by the rising cost of home ownership, employment and lifestyle opportunities. What is Build to Rent?

Build to Rent (BTR) refers to an alternative development model where a developer builds and holds the stock specifically for long term income-generating assets, opposed to the traditional Build to Sell (BTS) model. BTR is an established asset class in both the UK and USA, and as the ‘Australian Dream’ of home ownership has become progressively difficult, the model is beginning to garner interest throughout Australia.

BTR is complex and there are a number of variables that will impact the implementation of the model in Australia. Despite the challenges ahead, opportunities do exist. BTR has proven to be a Global Success With the inevitable introduction of this new asset class into Australia, it is important we gain insights and learnings from the success of other international markets, especially the US and UK given the structural and market similarity to Australia.

In the United States, where the size of the Build to Rent (known as multi-family housing) market has been growing significantly since the 1980s, over 14.5 million residences have been created. Currently, the sector represents the second largest asset class in the nation with the output of multifamily housing hovering around 300,000 units yearly. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, the asset class also contributes US$3.4 Trillion to the economy annually, supporting approximately 17.5 million jobs. The strength of BTR within the US can be associated with the maturity of the market and levels of offshore capital being poured into the asset class (accounts for approximately 25 per cent of institutional property investment – second to office). A simpler planning framework, rezoning of regeneration areas and increased demand for city living have also contributed to the success.

In the US, 36 per cent of households are inhabited by renters (over 43,000,000). If we look at the age distribution of these renters, 50 per cent are aged under 30, just over double the next highest age bracket of 31-44 years old (NMHC). This demonstrates the appetite for rental accommodation from Millennials and Gen Z.

3 RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019

Challenges to overcome in Australia GST credits, impacting the overall feasibility of the project. There are a number of challenges that are impacting the • Managed Investment Trusts (MITs) are a vehicle that allow implementation of BTR in Australia. Of these, the most prominent offshore funds to be pooled from multiple sources to purchase amongst industry stakeholders are explained below: an income producing asset in Australia. This income is then subject to Withholding Tax. Under current policy settings, foreign Mindset investors (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds etc) will be • There is a strong culture and belief in Australia that home taxed at a rate of 30 per cent on BTR income, rather than the ownership correlates to one’s level of success. The ‘Australian rate of 15 per cent applied to other real estate classes (purpose- Dream’ of home ownership has become increasingly difficult as built student accommodation, retail, industrial, office etc). property values have increased at rapid rates. The perception of renting being a short-term stepping stone to home ownership Demand and Supply dynamics driving the need for still needs to be shifted. The reality is that renting is now a housing options secure and convenient lifestyle decision for an increasing share Australia’s population is expanding at the fastest pace in the of Australians. developed world as skilled migrants flock to our growing economy in search of employment opportunities, education and a better quality of Feasibility life. In 2018, Australia’s population grew by approximately 405,000 • Land in desirable locations across Australian cities, especially people, 248,400 of which came from net overseas migration (NOM); Sydney and , is both difficult to find and extremely a 2.8 per cent increase from 2017 (ABS). According to the United expensive. Locations close to the CBD, transport, universities, Nations World Prospects 2018, the three fastest hospitals etc all come with a premium price tag and are usually growing cities post 2025 will all be located in Australia; Melbourne also sought after by other asset classes. (1.24 per cent), Brisbane (1.18 per cent) and Sydney (1.17 per cent). Taxes and Charges As our population continues to swell, the need to provide more • All Australian states and territories levy an annual Land Tax, housing increases with demographic and social shifts also requiring each with varying thresholds and progressive rates. Regardless a more diverse range of stock. The overall outlook for new releases of the use of the dwelling, the application of the tax remains and completions remains lethargic, resulting in good news for the same as it purely reflects the value of the land. However, landlords; increased levels of demand and amplified competition for there are exemptions where land tax will not apply. In NSW accommodation, forcing upwards pressure on rents. for example, the land tax threshold is $692,000, meaning that In Melbourne’s CBD an average of 1,010 residential units have been anything below this amount does not incur land tax. Because completed annually since 1995, with the current decade averaging of such exemptions, a site or project in single ownership (BTR) approximately 1,600 completions per annum. Despite record will be burdened by heavier taxes compared to a site divided completion levels in 2015 and 2016, vacancy rates continued their amongst a number of owners because apportioned land value downward trend as the market absorbed this stock, highlighting the on individual units will unlikely cross the threshold or will be strength of occupier demand levels. Looking forward we can see a benefitted by a lower tax rate. diminishing pipeline of supply toward 2023 as suitable sites become • Under existing legislation, BTR developments are at a disadvantage less available. The jump in completions in 2020 reflect the response compared to BTS or commercial developments when it comes to the removal of off-the-plan stamp duty concessions for investors to the application of Goods & Services Tax (GST). With BTS in July 2017, forcing many developers to bring their projects forward. developments, GST credits can be claimed back on costs associated Despite this increase, there will still be a 77 per cent decrease in with acquisition and construction provided the property is sold new completions from 2020 to 2023 if every marketed project reaches (within five years). A BTR development is currently classified as a completion. residential development. Because the assets will not be sold and instead be held long-term, the developer will be unable to claim any

Australian Population Growth Residential Apartment Completions in Melbourne CBD - Active Projects

500 3500 450 379 Complete s

400 n 3000 o i t

e Construction 350 l

p 2500 m

300 o Marketed C

226 2000 t 0 0 250 n 0 e '

m 1500 200 r t a p 1000 150 A

f o 100

# 500 50 0 0 1 1 1 7 7 7 3 3 3 9 9 9 5 5 5 8 8 8 6 6 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 0 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total Population Growth Net Overseas Migration Natural Increase Average Average

Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International

4 RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019

In Sydney’s Central City, traditionally a smaller residential market both the strong growth of the overall city as well as the increasing with high levels of office demand and less permissive planning rules, attraction of the CBD which offers unique lifestyle appeal, especially an average of 459 residential units have been completed annually to the fast-growing cohorts of young professionals and university since 1995. Evidently, higher levels of completions were achieved students. throughout the mid-to-late 90s leading toward the 2000 Olympic Home Ownership v Renting Games. Over a ten-year period to 2018 only 1,700 apartments were Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), highlights that brought to the market (170 p.a.) with three of those years returning home ownership is becoming less attainable, reducing from 70 per no completions whatsoever. This decade Sydney’s CBD has cent in 1997-98 to 66 per cent in 2018-19. Over the same period, produced approximately 1,498 apartments compared to Melbourne’s the number of households that owned their home outright (no 32,000. Whilst completions in 2018 and 2019 represent the strongest mortgage), reduced from 40 per cent to 30 per cent. levels since 2007, completions will drop off again by approximately 78% in 2020. Supporting this trend, the ABS’ 2017-18 Survey of Income and Housing report reveals that the proportion of households that rent Similarly, Brisbane’s CBD has primarily been a commercial increased from 27 per cent in 1997-98 to 32 per cent in 2017-18. office market with a relatively small component of residential developments. Due to locational and transport constraints, CBD Within this timeframe, Australia’s population has soared from fringe such as Fortitude Valley, South Brisbane and West approximately 18.7 million in 1998 to approximately 25 million in End have developed into much larger apartment markets than the 2019. The largest cities in Australia (Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane) CBD. However, 2019 has proved to be a record-breaking year for the continue to experience some of the strongest rates of population CBD, with the highest number of completions ever recorded, owing growth in the world, driven by an influx of overseas migrants. Generally, to the completion of Brisbane Skytower. overseas migrants choose rental accommodation as their first housing option, which allows them time to better understand the location, Whilst we are comparing three completely different markets, it’s preferences, affordability etc before purchasing their own property. worthwhile highlighting the variance in drivers and demand across the CBDs of Australian three largest cities. Sydney’s apartment Increasing house prices relative to household income has also market is diverse, and less CBD focused, predominantly due to site contributed to the decline of home ownership rates, along with availability constraints. Similarly, Brisbane’s CBD is largely an office demographic and cultural shifts such as the trend toward later family driven market, with high levels of residential apartment development formation, particularly amongst Millennials. As evident below, renting distributed around its fringes. With strong levels of interstate has become more common amongst all age groups with the rate of migration, tourism and infrastructure investment such as the Cross- renters within each group increasing since 1996. River Rail, rental demand in the CBD is anticipated to increase. Interestingly, families with children are major contributors to the Melbourne’s CBD apartment market has evolved in response to increase in private renting.

Residential Apartment Completions in Sydney CBD - Change of Tenure Active Projects 50%

1200 ) 40% 34.9% 34.5% Complete ( % 34%

1000 s 32.1% 31% 32.1%

s 30.9% g 29.6% n

Construction n

o 28.1% i i l t 30% l e l

800 e p w m D o

C

600 d t 20% e n i e p m t

a 400 p c u A O 10% f o 200 #

0 0% 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Owned Outright Owned w/ Mortgage Rented 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2006 2011 2016

Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International, ABS Residential Apartment Completions in Brisbane CBD - Rate of Private Renting by Age Group

Active Projects 50.00 45.00 1200 40.00 Complete 1000 35.00 Construction t s

n 30.00 n e o i 800 C t

r e 25.00 l p P e

m 600 20.00 o C

t 15.00 n e 400

m 10.00 r t a

p 5.00 A 200

f o 0.00 # 0 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 years 1 1 1 7 7 7 3 3 3 9 9 9 5 5 5 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 1

1 years years years years years years years and over 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International, Australian Government Productivity Commission

5 RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019 Housing Affordability Identifying the top renter The term ‘Housing Affordability’ refers to the relationship between expenditure on housing (mortgage payments or rents) and suburbs household income. Strong market conditions over the past 30 Within these capital cities we have identified the top three suburbs years have increased the median house price in our major cities by for renters. These rankings have been determined by the number unprecedented numbers: of private dwellings occupied by renters. Despite the number of • 502 per cent increase in Sydney differences across the cities, the shared fundamentals include strong population growth, distance to employment, transport links and • 513 per cent increase in Melbourne lifestyle amenity. These findings show that a range of opportunities • 488 per cent increase in Brisbane exist for developers throughout markets in the CBD, middle and As such, housing affordability in Australia has broadly declined outer rings. We note that the median rents listed below represent since the 1980s and in recent times, many people have been unable the combination of both old and new stock and do not represent an to obtain the financial requirements to enter the property market. achievable return for a new Build to Rent project. All age groups except the 65+ bracket have decreased in home Sydney ownership rates since 1986 with 25-34 year old’s (Millennials) impacted the most, decreasing by 13 per cent. According to 2016 Census Data, the top three suburbs for renters in Greater Sydney were: Whilst Millennials are not considered the sole customer of the BTR model, analysis of the US and UK shows that they make up a The of Parramatta is located approximately 24 kilometres substantial pool of tenants. With that in mind, there is a substantial west of Sydney’s CBD. In 2018, Parramatta lead the state in opportunity to provide more rental accommodation for this population growth from overseas migration, attracting 2,606 new demographic across our major cities, especially Sydney, Melbourne residents. As the secondary Central Business District within and Brisbane. According to 2016 Census data, Millennials make up a Metropolitan Sydney, Parramatta has grown into the major hub significant percentage of the population throughout these cities and of Western Sydney, offering employment, transport, shopping and evidently, the number of renters has increased since the previous lifestyle amenity. Approximately 46.4 per cent of the population Census in 2011. within Parramatta are aged between 25-39 years old, highlighting its popularity amongst young families and professionals. Greater Sydney: • The three largest age brackets fall between 25-39 years old Randwick is positioned approximately 6 kilometres south-east of (23.4 per cent of population) Sydney’s CBD. The suburb attracts a number of renters due to its proximity to the CBD, beaches, University of NSW, parkland and • 34.1 per cent of dwellings are rented (up from 31.6 per cent in hospitals. According to Census data, 32.5 per cent of residents are 2011) aged between 25-39 years old, once again highlighting the appeal to Greater Melbourne: young professionals and families. Randwick’s world-class medical • The three largest age brackets fall between 20 – 34 years old and research facilities such as the Prince of Wales Hospital, Royal (23.7 per cent of population) Hospital for Women and Sydney Children’s Hospital has created a • 30 per cent of dwellings are rented (up from 27.2 per cent in strong and diverse tenant pool. 2011) Blacktown is located in Greater Western Sydney, approximately Greater Brisbane: 34 kilometres west of Sydney’s CBD and is known for its diverse • The three largest age brackets fall between 20 – 34 years old population, forging a reputation as a multicultural melting pot. (22.6 per cent of population) Approximately 26.8 per cent of residents are aged between 25-39 • 34.5 per cent of dwellings are rented (up from 33 per cent in years old and there is a high percentage of 0-4 year old’s (8 per 2011) cent) compared to the rest of Metropolitan Sydney (6.5 per cent) indicating a strong presence of young families. With only 15 per cent of dwellings being flats or apartments, we have determined the Rate of Private Renting by Household Type median rent for houses to be more relative.

70.00

60.00 Suburb 1 Bed/week 2 Bed/week 3 Bed/week

50.00 Parramatta (apartment) $450 $500 $620 t

n 40.00 e C Randwick (apartment) $500 $630 $880 r 30.00 P e 20.00 Blacktown (house) - $380 $420

10.00 Source: Domain 0.00 Couple family One parent Couple family Other family Lone person Group Other with children family without household household households children 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Source: Colliers International

6 RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019

Interestingly, only one of the three are located within 10 kilometres of Melbourne the CBD. As BTR begins to be introduced into the Australian market, According to 2016 Census Data, the top three suburbs for renters in it’s worth noting that opportunities around areas such as Parramatta Greater Melbourne were: or Blacktown provide developers with consistent population growth, strong rental demand and relatively cheap land. The suburb of Melbourne unsurprisingly took out the number one By way of comparison, let’s analyse the top three suburbs within 10 spot with high levels of demand coming from young professionals kilometres of Sydney’s CBD. The top suburbs in descending order and students. Approximately 48.3 per cent of the population are Randwick (6km), Ashfield (8km) and Chatswood (10km). within the suburb are aged between 20-29 years old. With record population growth, strong white-collar jobs growth, demand is is an inner western suburb of Sydney, approximately 8 Ashfield anticipated to continue at high levels, especially with a forecasted kilometres from the CBD. Ashfield is highly regarded for its proximity undersupply post 2022-23. to the CBD, transport, parks and heritage streetscapes. The dominant age bracket is between 20-34 years old, representing 34.7 per cent South Yarra is an inner-city suburb approximately 4 kilometres from of the total population (compared to the Metropolitan Sydney average the CBD. The suburb is extremely popular with Millennials due to its of 23.9 per cent). In terms of tenure, 51.3 per cent of all occupied proximity to retail, entertainment and transport links. Approximately dwellings were being rented, compared with the state average of 31.8 46.6 per cent of the population are aged between 20-34 years old. per cent. With a median house price hovering around $1,700,000 (REIV), home ownership is unattainable for most, reflected in the fact that 64.5 is located approximately 10 kilometres from the CBD Chatswood per cent of dwellings are occupied by renters (compared with the and acts as the major commercial and transport node in the Lower Metropolitan Melbourne average of 30.8 per cent). Approximately 78 North Shore. With several large organisations based in Chatswood, per cent of all dwellings are either flats or apartments. employment opportunities have increased demand for residential and retail amenities. The most prevalent age group is between 25-39, St Kilda is a beachside suburb located approximately 6 kilometres representing 29.1 per cent of the population (Metropolitan Sydney south-east of the CBD. The suburb has typically been a mecca for average of 24.3 per cent). Much like Ashfield, Chatswood also has a tourists, backpackers, musicians and artists. In recent times, the strong Asian influence with 20.7 per cent of residents born in China, suburb continues to undergo gentrification with a host of new high- compared with the Metropolitan Sydney average of 5.1 per cent. end developments, restaurants and bars. Approximately 44.4 per Approximately 47.1 per cent of all occupied dwellings are inhabited by cent of residents are aged between 25-39 years old and 62.9 per renters. cent of occupied dwellings are inhabited by renters.

Despite being the furthest from the CBD, Chatswood commands In 2018, the suburb of Melbourne gained more residents from the higher rent of the three suburbs. As Sydney’s fourth largest overseas migration than any other Victorian suburb. The influx of commercial centre, incorporating lifestyle, educational and residents, motivated by education, employment and lifestyle, continue recreational amenity, employment opportunities continue to push to push demand levels and apply upwards pressure on rents. residential demand. Chatswood also benefits from it’s own railway station, providing easy access to the CBD.

Suburb 1 Bed/week 2 Bed/week 3 Bed/week Suburb 1 Bed/week 2 Bed/week 3 Bed/week

Randwick (apartment) $500 $610 $850 Melbourne (apartment) $450 $610 $900

Ashfield (apartment) $400 $650 $690 South Yarra (apartment) $400 $550 $805

Chatswood (apartment) $550 $650 $950 St Kilda (apartment) $370 $495 $723

Source: Domain Source: REA October 2019

7 RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019 Brisbane Conclusion According to 2016 Census Data, the top three suburbs for renters in Despite the challenges ahead, there are a number of opportunities Greater Brisbane were: that exist for BTR investment across Australia’s largest cities. There Caboolture (54km from the CBD) are various markets around Australia in which a BTR investment • 47.2 per cent of dwellings occupied by renters case could be created. It is imperative that developers conduct thorough research and demographic analysis to ensure they identify Redbank Plains (35km from the CBD) who their market is and what they value to ensure yields and returns • 54.8 per cent of dwellings occupied by renters are maximised. Moving forward, the success of the BTR model will revolve around its ability to differentiate from the private rental sector North Lakes (26km from the CBD) through the level of service (management), security, design, amenity • 41.5 per cent of dwellings occupied by renters and tenure. The ability to adopt the mentality of ‘customers’ rather Caboolture, Redbank Plains and North Lakes are all situated in outer than ‘tenants’ will be imperative. suburban locations. Their municipalities (City of Ipswich and Moreton Currently, BTR is not treated as a standalone asset class, despite Bay) represent some of the fastest growing parts of Greater Brisbane, residential housing being a $6.6 Trillion asset in Australia (as of occupying large geographical areas and attracting a high number of September 2019). If the Government and industry can work together renters due to the stock age and relative affordability. Evidently, a high to create the framework for improved policy, address taxation proportion of occupied dwellings are occupied by renters compared concerns and streamline development approval, then the BTR model with the Metropolitan Brisbane average of 35.8 per cent. has the scope to become a meaningful real estate investment for By way of comparison, we have analysed the top three suburbs local and international institutions that also delivers upon a range of within 10 kilometres of Brisbane’s CBD. The top suburbs in community and policy objectives including a more diverse stock of ascending order are Nundah (8km), Coorparoo (4km) and New Farm quality housing choices. (2km).

Nundah, situated approximately 8 kilometres north-east of the CBD, exudes a vibrant village vibe with an abundance of retail, lifestyle and transport amenities within walking distance. As such, it attracts a high number of singles and young professionals. According to the most recent Census data, approximately 26.7 per cent of residents are aged between 25 and 34, substantially greater than the Metropolitan Brisbane average (15.7 per cent). With many people in that age bracket not in a position to purchase a property, it’s no surprise that 57.4 per cent of dwellings in Nundah are occupied by renters.

Coorparoo is located approximately 4 kilometres south-east of the CBD, making it appealing to renters with 44.3 per cent of dwellings occupied by tenants. Many young families flock to Coorparoo due to the number of highly regarded schools that the suburb is zoned to. The transport links and proximity to the CBD also appeal to young professionals and singles. Approximately 31 per cent of residents are aged between 20-34 years old, highlighting the wide demographic the suburb appeals to.

New Farm, one of the most exclusive and highly sought-after suburbs in Brisbane, is located approximately 2 kilometres north of the CBD. Home to a large population of young professionals and families (35 per cent of residents aged between 25-39 years of age), New Farm’s leafy surrounds, convenience to the CBD and vibrant community make it one of the most in demand inner-city hotspots. Flats and apartments are the predominant dwelling in New Farm, making up 75.2 per cent of all occupied dwellings. Tellingly, 57.2 per cent of all dwellings are occupied by renters.

Suburb 1 Bed/week 2 Bed/week 3 Bed/week

Nundah (apartment) $318 $385 $460

Coorparoo (apartment) $310 $365 $495

New Farm (apartment) $330 $440 $690

Source: REA October 2019

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