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NOVEMBER 16-17, 1984 Menlo Park, California By DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MINUTES OF THE NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EVALUATION COUNCIL NOVEMBER 16-17, 1984 Menlo Park, California by Clement F. Shearer1 Open File Report 85-201 This report is preliminary and has not been edited or reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey publication standards and stratiqraphic npmenclature. llJ.S. Geological Survey, 106 National Center Reston, Virginia 22092 TABLE OF CONTENTS page Preface i 1 Minutes of the November 1984 meeting ^ 1. Agenda for November 1984 meeting 12. List of members, National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council 13. Appendices: A. The Parkfield, California, Prediction Experiment - W. H. Bakun and A. G. Lindh 16. B. Holocene activity of the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek, California - Kerry E. Si eh and Richard H. Jahns 56. C. Terms for Expressing Earthquake Potential, Prediction, and Probability- Robert E. Wallace, James F. Davis, and Karen C. McNally 71. D. USGS, Terminoloqy for Geologic Hazards Warnings 79. 11. PREFACE The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) was established in 1979 pursuant to the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 to advise the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in issuing any formal predictions or other information pertinent to the potential for the occurrence of a significant earthquake. It is the Director of the USGS who is responsible for the decision whether and when to issue such a prediction or information. NEPEC, also referred to in this document as the Council, according to its charter is comprised of a Chairman, Vice Chairman, and from 8 to 12 other members appointed by the Director of the USGS. The Chairman shall not be a USGS employee, and at least one-half of the membership shall be other than USGS employees. The USGS has not published the minutes of earlier meetings of NEPEC. This open-file report is the first in an anticipated series of routinely published proceedings of the Council. -1- NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICITION EVALUATION COUNCIL Friday, 16. November, 1984 Menlo Park, California Council Members Present Dr. Lynn R. Sykes, Chairman, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Columbia University Dr. John R. Filson, Vice-Chairman, Chief, Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering, USGS Dr. Clem Shearer, Executive Secretary, USGS Dr. John Davies, Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dr. Thomas McEvilly, University of Cal ifornia, Berkeley Dr. Mark Zoback, Stanford University Dr. Keiiti Aki, University of Southern California Dr. James H. Dieterich, USGS Dr. William Ellsworth, USGS Dr. Wayne Thatcher, USGS Dr. Robert E. Wallace, USGS Observers Present Paul Seigel, USGS Kerry Sieh, USGS Al Lindh, USGS . Robert Page, USGS George Gryc, USGS Teresa Rodriguez, USGS John Healy, USGS Sandra Schulz, USGS William J. Kockelman, USGS Wanda Seiders, USGS Cynthia Ramseyer, USGS (recording secretary) Edna King, USGS Opening Remarks Chairman Sykes opened the meeting by reviewing several goals he would like to see the NEPEC pursue: to meet several times a year for on-going reviews of high-risk areas; to advise the Director of the USGS of earthquake hazards and earthquake potential at specific sites; to take a more active role in earthquake prediction; and to publish quickly information (scientific papers and data bases) reviewed by NEPEC regarding earthquake potential and predicition. Filson observed that this meeting could be an historic moment for the NEPEC if it should chose to take a more active role. He suggested that NEPEC can "do more than respond to other people's prediction" and that the NEPEC could set a pace that would enable it to present to the country a "systematic review of the situation in seismic areas." Filson also noted that there is a polarization of opinion about long-term and short-term prediction, and that an issue before NEPEC is how to determine criteria for prediction and for advising the USGS Director of earthquake potential and hazard. Sykes reviewed briefly the history of the NEPEC, which was chartered under the 1978 National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, and outlined some of the -2- responsibilities and issues NEPEC might pursue: o need for a mechanism for quick publication of data, o relationship with the media and press, o relationship (reciprocity) with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, o short-term responses to rapidly changing conditions, o review of critical seismic areas, and o determination of language for issuing earthquake hazard warnings. Concerns not on this meeting's agenda, but which nevertheless should be addressed: o A review of the legal status of the NEPEC, especially the personal and professional liability of individuals, in both the Federal and private sectors, who serve on the NEPEC; Council may ask for Dept. of the Interior solicitor's review and advice. o How to minimize or avoid misrepresentations to the public. o Ongoing communication within NEPEC by means of small working groups that might meet or teleconfer on a regular basis. o Guidelines for NEPEC repsonse to predictions that are presented to NEPEC. o Recommendation that NEPEC continue to follow its previous policy of not making any reviews of foreign predictions unless specifically asked by the USGS Director. AGENDA ITEM: NEPEC's ROLE Wallace agreed that NEPEC should be more active. Also, he stated that earthquake predictions will not be made by individuals but by groups and will evolve with the accumulation and analysis of data. He further noted that the ongoing monthly prediction meetings at the USGS reflect such an evolutionary process, in that it is a group effort between the USGS and private contractors that relies on a redundancy of data. Wallace also noted that raw data and preliminary interpretations of the monthly USGS meetings are on record and printed quickly. Dieterich spoke to NEPEC taking a more active role in long-term forecasting, and the need to identify pre-agreed upon "triggers" that would enable NEPEC to respond quickly in making short-term predictions. He recommended regular reviews of long-term forecasting by the Council as a way to focus the long-and short-term purposes of the NEPEC. -3- Davies spoke to a change of emphasis for NEPEC towards long-term prediction. By so doing, NEPEC could lend credence to the idea that certain circumstances promote further investigation of earthquake potential. Aki, in referring to the Japanese model of earthquake predicition, voiced some concern about the time demands and logistics of calling the NEPEC together on a more frequent or regular basis. McEvilly pointed out that earthquake probability maps and the Parkfield experiment have been developed since the last NEPEC meetings (1/81 and 6/82). FUson pointed out that California earthquake probability maps have not been brought before the NEPEC and have not been formally transferred to the State of California; and that the USGS has previously issued several formal statements regarding earthquake hazards to the State of California and that these statements should be reviewed and either updated or cancelled. Sykes referred to the Japanese model for earthquake prediction and felt that there was a problem with the council in Japan being too large and too formal to make it directly applicable to the United States. The ongoing monthly review at Menlo Park (USGS) could in part suffice as an informal, ongoing mode of earthquake prediction communication and information. Sykes/Filson suggested that specialists be asked to be present at NEPEC meetings to present their data or make evaluations. NEPEC should also be receptive to persons coming before the Council with earthquake predictions; it needs to respond quickly to data that is put before it. Dieterich stated that long-term prediction is necessary: NEPEC must be aware of data on long-term predictions, so as to make an informed judgement about short-term predictions. Ellsworth recommended a NEPEC base of long-term potential data, and a systematic and ongoing review of long-term prediction data by NEPEC, so that if NEPEC is forced to (or decides to) make short-term predictions, the Council has information available on potential long-term behavior. Sykes mentioned that three groups (USGS, Lament, and Caltech) have produced earthquake probability maps that are essentially in agreement with one another: NEPEC should review these yearly or every other year. Zoback mentioned short-term problems confronting NEPEC: 1. NEPEC hasn't yet acquired the background (data) to make judgements about specific sites, and 2. NEPEC needs to familiarize itself with instruments and data related to specific sites. Suggested that the NEPEC needs a system to gather, synthesize, and evaluate data. Sykes responded with a suggestion that to make sure data gets shared quickly and accurately, perhaps data could be kept simultaneously in several locations and be available to qualified users by a dial-up phone capability. -4- Wallace brought up the "Ridgecrest Affair" wherein politics entered into a scientific/technical problem -- this is an issue when the use and application of scientific data comes under political purview and pressure. Thatcher suggested that formal decisions need to be made in a logical sequence: identify areas that need concentrated attention and bring regular updates to NEPEC. Filson felt it was necessary to identify and limit areas of study to specific sites; otherwise NEPEC will be forced into taking a merely responsive rather than active role in earthquake prediction. McEvilly suggested that perhaps NEPEC should remain strictly responsive to prediction data brought to the council, rather than risk a conflict of interest either by reviewing predictions that the Council will have guided by its review process or by soliciting or sponsoring probability studies of certain sites. Filson pointed out that the USGS already has "in house" prediction activities: unusual data should be brought to the Director's attention with NEPEC's evaluation and advice. Aki suggested a prosecuting/defending mode for NEPEC, with the Council acting as a jury, determining the proofs and validity of earthquake predictions.
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