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Housing Development Capacity Assessment 2017 Future Proof Area – Waikato District, Hamilton City and Waipa District

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Housing Development Capacity Assessment 2017 Future Proof Area – Waikato District, Hamilton City and Waipa District Housing Development Capacity Assessment 2017 Future Proof Area – Waikato District, Hamilton City and Waipa District 17 July 2018 – final Housing Development Capacity Assessment 2017 Future Proof Area – Waikato District, Hamilton City and Waipa District Prepared for Waikato District Council, Hamilton City Council and Waipa District Council Document reference: Date of this version: 17 July 2018 M.E report author(s): Susan Fairgray, Douglas Fairgray www.me.co.nz Disclaimer: Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability of the information contained in this report, neither Market Economics Limited nor any of its employees shall be held liable for the information, opinions and forecasts expressed in this report. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 1 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 12 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE NPS – UDC ................................................................................................ 12 1.2 NPS OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................. 13 1.3 THE HOUSING DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................ 14 1.4 APPROACH OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................... 16 1.5 DATA SOURCES ................................................................................................................... 20 1.6 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT ................................................................................................. 20 1.7 TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................ 20 1.8 REPORT OUTLINE ................................................................................................................. 21 2 STUDY AREA - URBAN ENVIRONMENT ............................................................................. 23 2.1 GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT ......................................................................................................... 23 2.2 URBAN ENVIRONMENTS AND THE NPS-UDC ............................................................................ 25 2.3 SPATIAL FRAMEWORK – LAND USE ZONES ................................................................................ 25 2.4 INFILL AND GREENFIELD AREAS ............................................................................................... 38 3 DWELLING DEMAND ....................................................................................................... 39 3.1 HAMILTON CITY ................................................................................................................... 39 3.2 WAIKATO DISTRICT .............................................................................................................. 43 3.3 WAIPA DISTRICT .................................................................................................................. 46 4 RESIDENTIAL DWELLING CAPACITY .................................................................................. 49 4.1 PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY ...................................................................................................... 49 4.2 COMMERCIALLY FEASIBLE CAPACITY ........................................................................................ 59 5 SUFFICIENCY OF CAPACITY .............................................................................................. 77 5.1 ASSESSING SUFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................ 77 5.2 HAMILTON CITY HOUSING SUFFICIENCY 2021-2046 ................................................................. 80 5.3 WAIPA DISTRICT SUFFICIENCY .............................................................................................. 100 5.4 WAIKATO DISTRICT ............................................................................................................ 108 6 CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................ 117 APPENDIX A – CLASSIFICATION OF INFILL AND GREENFIELD AREAS ............................................. 120 Figures FIGURE 1 – NPS GUIDANCE POLICIES PB1 TO PB5 ...................................................................................... 14 FIGURE 2 – RELATIONSHIP OF NPS POLICIES WITH CAPACITY ASSESSMENTS ..................................................... 15 FIGURE 3 – HOUSING DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY APPROACH OVERVIEW ........................................................... 17 FIGURE 4 – FUTURE PROOF PARTNERS STUDY AREA ..................................................................................... 24 FIGURE 5 – WAIKATO DISTRICT COUNCIL SPATIAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................... 27 FIGURE 6 – HAMILTON CITY SPATIAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................... 28 FIGURE 7 – WAIPA DISTRICT SPATIAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................... 29 FIGURE 8 – WAIKATO DISTRICT PLAN SECTIONS ........................................................................................... 30 FIGURE 9 – LAND USE ZONES IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ..................................................................................... 31 FIGURE 10 – LAND USE ZONES IN HAMILTON CITY ....................................................................................... 34 FIGURE 11 – LAND USE ZONES IN WAIPA DISTRICT....................................................................................... 37 FIGURE 12 - SHORT-TERM (2017-2021) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN HAMILTON CITY ................ 40 FIGURE 13 - MEDIUM-TERM (2017-2026) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN HAMILTON CITY ............. 41 FIGURE 14 - LONG-TERM (2017-2046) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN HAMILTON CITY ................. 42 FIGURE 15 - SHORT-TERM (2017-2021) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ............ 43 FIGURE 16 - MEDIUM-TERM (2017-2026) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ........ 44 FIGURE 17 - LONG-TERM (2017-2046) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ............. 45 FIGURE 18 - SHORT-TERM (2017-2021) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN WAIPA DISTRICT ............... 46 FIGURE 19 - MEDIUM-TERM (2017-2026) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN WAIPA DISTRICT ............ 47 FIGURE 20 – LONG-TERM (2017-2046) DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS BY LOCATION IN WAIPA DISTRICT ................ 48 FIGURE 21 – INFILL (SUBDIVISION AND REDEVELOPMENT) PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY IN WAIKATO DISTRICT .......... 50 FIGURE 22 – GREENFIELDS PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY (EXCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ................................................................................................................................................. 51 FIGURE 23 – GREENFIELDS PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY (INCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ................................................................................................................................................. 52 FIGURE 24 - INFILL (SUBDIVISION AND REDEVELOPMENT) PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY IN HAMILTON CITY ................ 54 FIGURE 25 - GREENFIELDS PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY (EXCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN HAMILTON CITY ............................................................................................................................................................. 55 FIGURE 26 - GREENFIELDS PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY (INCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN HAMILTON CITY ............................................................................................................................................................. 56 FIGURE 27 - INFILL (SUBDIVISION AND REDEVELOPMENT) PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY IN WAIPA DISTRICT ............... 57 FIGURE 28 - GREENFIELDS PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY (EXCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN WAIPA DISTRICT ............................................................................................................................................................. 58 FIGURE 29 - GREENFIELDS PLAN ENABLED CAPACITY (INCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN WAIPA DISTRICT ............................................................................................................................................................. 59 FIGURE 30 – INFILL (SUBDIVISION) COMMERCIALLY FEASIBLE CAPACITY IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ............................ 60 FIGURE 31 - INFILL (REDEVELOPMENT) COMMERCIALLY FEASIBLE CAPACITY IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ...................... 61 FIGURE 32 – GREENFIELDS COMMERCIALLY FEASIBLE CAPACITY (EXCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN WAIKATO DISTRICT .................................................................................................................................. 61 FIGURE 33 – GREENFIELDS COMMERCIALLY FEASIBLE CAPACITY (INCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS) IN WAIKATO DISTRICT .................................................................................................................................. 62 FIGURE 34 - COMBINED INFILL (SUBDIVISION) AND GREENFIELDS COMMERCIALLY FEASIBLE CAPACITY IN WAIKATO DISTRICT ................................................................................................................................................
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