College of Agriculture Sugarcane Yield Gap in Brazil

1 University of São Paulo “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture Sugarcane yield gap in Brazil: a crop modelling approach Leonardo Amaral Monteiro Thesis presented to obtain the Doctor degree in Science. Area: Agricultural Systems Engineering Piracicaba 2015 2 Leonardo Amaral Monteiro Agronomist Sugarcane yield gap in Brazil: a crop modelling approach Advisor: Prof. Dr. PAULO CESAR SENTELHAS Thesis presented to obtain the Doctor degree in Science. Area: Agricultural Systems Engineering Piracicaba 2015 Dados Internacionais de Catalogação na Publicação DIVISÃO DE BIBLIOTECA - DIBD/ESALQ/USP Monteiro, Leonardo Amaral Sugarcane yield gap in Brazil: a crop modelling approach / Leonardo Amaral Monteiro. - - Piracicaba, 2015. 131 p. : il. Tese (Doutorado) - - Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. 1. Saccharum spp 2. Produtividade potencial 3. Produtividade atingível 4. Produtividade média 5. Déficit hídrico 6. Manejo agrícola 7. Sustentabilidade I. Título CDD 633.61 M775s “Permitida a cópia total ou parcial deste documento, desde que citada a fonte – O autor” 3 I would like to dedicate this Thesis for my family 4 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like give my sincerely thanks: Firstly, to God for all the opportunities in my life; To my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Paulo Cesar Sentelhas, who became a friend, but mainly by his advices, confidence and support during all the steps of my Ph. D. course; To Angélica Jaconi, my deepest gratitude for support myself in all moments; To the University of São Paulo, mainly to Agricultural College “Luiz de Queiroz” for the opportunity to conclude this degree; I also extend my acknowledgements for all professors who effectively contributed with my professional formation; To the employees Ângela Márcia Derigi Silva, Francisco Bernardo Dias, Fernando Luiz Novelo, Robinson Tuon and Davilmar Aparecida Colevatti by their help in the admistrative issues; To Dra. Dalziza Oliveira from IAPAR for the meteorological data series from state of Paraná; To CAPES, by the financial support through the program “Science without Borders”, which gave me the opportunity for an internship in Germany during 8 months (Proc.: 10590/13-7); To Dr. Claas Nendel from ZALF Institute, in Germany, by the valuable opportunity to accomplish an internship in Müncheberg, when I improved my English and German skills; To my housemates Fernando Henrique Barroso Toledo (Zumbi), José Carlos Pöppl Neto, Leandro Garcia da Costa and Murilo Vianna; To my graduation colleagues, mainly to those which were responsible by the funny moments during the coffee break at “Cúpula”; To the fraternity house “Matadouro” for the kind reception and great moments during the last period of my Ph. D.; And finally, to CAPES by the Ph. D. scholarship. 6 7 “Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle. As with all matters of the heart, you’ll know when you find it.” (Steve Jobs) 8 9 CONTENTS RESUMO ....................................................................................................................................... 11 ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. 13 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 15 1.1 Literature Review.................................................................................................................... 18 1.1.1 General aspects of sugarcane crop ...................................................................................... 18 1.1.2 Climate and sugarcane production ...................................................................................... 20 1.1.3 Crop simulation models ....................................................................................................... 26 1.1.4 Use and applications of gridded weather data ................................................................... 29 1.1.5 Yield gap analysis ................................................................................................................ 30 References...................................................................................................................................... 32 2 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF A SIMPLE AGROMETEOROLOGICAL MODEL TO ESTIMATE SUGARCANE YIELD UNDER OPERATIONAL FIELD CONDITIONS .......................................................................................................................... 43 Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 43 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 43 2.2 Material and Methods ............................................................................................................. 45 2.2.1 Sugarcane yield model description ..................................................................................... 45 2.2.1 Operational sugarcane yields .............................................................................................. 49 2.2.2 Model calibration and evaluation........................................................................................ 52 2.2.3 Statistical Analysis ............................................................................................................... 54 2.3 Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................... 55 2.3.1 Model calibration ................................................................................................................. 55 2.3.2 Performance of the sugarcane yield model ........................................................................ 56 2.4 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 60 References...................................................................................................................................... 60 3 ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE-DERIVED WEATHER DATA SYSTEM (NASA/POWER) FOR SOME BRAZILIAN REGIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON SUGARCANE YIELD SIMULATIONS ............................................................................... 65 Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 65 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 65 3.2 Material and Methods ............................................................................................................. 68 10 3.2.1 Locations selected as sources of weather data ................................................................... 68 3.2.2 NASA/POWER gridded weather database description..................................................... 69 3.2.3 Sugarcane yield simulations description ............................................................................ 70 3.2.4 Weather data and yield simulation statistical analysis ...................................................... 71 3.3 Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................... 72 3.3.1 Comparison of observed and gridded weather data........................................................... 72 3.3.2 Impact of gridded weather data on yield simulations ........................................................ 84 3.4. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 89 References ..................................................................................................................................... 89 4 SUGARCANE YIELD GAP IN BRAZIL: MAGNITUDE, CAUSES AND POSSIBLE STRATEGIES TO ITS MITIGATION ...................................................................................93 Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 93 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 93 4.1.1 Current sugarcane production in Brazil.............................................................................. 94 4.1.2 Yield concepts, approaches and their conditioning factors ............................................... 96 4.1.3 Objectives ............................................................................................................................. 99 4.2 Material and Methods ........................................................................................................... 100 4.2.1 Weather and soil data ........................................................................................................ 100 4.2.2 Operational yield data and yield model description ........................................................ 102 4.2.3 Potential and Best Farmer’s yield simulation .................................................................. 103 4.2.5 Yield Gap

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