Particle Filters: a Hands-On Tutorial
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A Neural Implementation of the Kalman Filter
A Neural Implementation of the Kalman Filter Robert C. Wilson Leif H. Finkel Department of Psychology Department of Bioengineering Princeton University University of Pennsylvania Princeton, NJ 08540 Philadelphia, PA 19103 [email protected] Abstract Recent experimental evidence suggests that the brain is capable of approximating Bayesian inference in the face of noisy input stimuli. Despite this progress, the neural underpinnings of this computation are still poorly understood. In this pa- per we focus on the Bayesian filtering of stochastic time series and introduce a novel neural network, derived from a line attractor architecture, whose dynamics map directly onto those of the Kalman filter in the limit of small prediction error. When the prediction error is large we show that the network responds robustly to changepoints in a way that is qualitatively compatible with the optimal Bayesian model. The model suggests ways in which probability distributions are encoded in the brain and makes a number of testable experimental predictions. 1 Introduction There is a growing body of experimental evidence consistent with the idea that animals are some- how able to represent, manipulate and, ultimately, make decisions based on, probability distribu- tions. While still unproven, this idea has obvious appeal to theorists as a principled way in which to understand neural computation. A key question is how such Bayesian computations could be per- formed by neural networks. Several authors have proposed models addressing aspects of this issue [15, 10, 9, 19, 2, 3, 16, 4, 11, 18, 17, 7, 6, 8], but as yet, there is no conclusive experimental evidence in favour of any one and the question remains open. -
Kalman and Particle Filtering
Abstract: The Kalman and Particle filters are algorithms that recursively update an estimate of the state and find the innovations driving a stochastic process given a sequence of observations. The Kalman filter accomplishes this goal by linear projections, while the Particle filter does so by a sequential Monte Carlo method. With the state estimates, we can forecast and smooth the stochastic process. With the innovations, we can estimate the parameters of the model. The article discusses how to set a dynamic model in a state-space form, derives the Kalman and Particle filters, and explains how to use them for estimation. Kalman and Particle Filtering The Kalman and Particle filters are algorithms that recursively update an estimate of the state and find the innovations driving a stochastic process given a sequence of observations. The Kalman filter accomplishes this goal by linear projections, while the Particle filter does so by a sequential Monte Carlo method. Since both filters start with a state-space representation of the stochastic processes of interest, section 1 presents the state-space form of a dynamic model. Then, section 2 intro- duces the Kalman filter and section 3 develops the Particle filter. For extended expositions of this material, see Doucet, de Freitas, and Gordon (2001), Durbin and Koopman (2001), and Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004). 1. The state-space representation of a dynamic model A large class of dynamic models can be represented by a state-space form: Xt+1 = ϕ (Xt,Wt+1; γ) (1) Yt = g (Xt,Vt; γ) . (2) This representation handles a stochastic process by finding three objects: a vector that l describes the position of the system (a state, Xt X R ) and two functions, one mapping ∈ ⊂ 1 the state today into the state tomorrow (the transition equation, (1)) and one mapping the state into observables, Yt (the measurement equation, (2)). -
Applying Particle Filtering in Both Aggregated and Age-Structured Population Compartmental Models of Pre-Vaccination Measles
bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/340661; this version posted June 6, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. Applying particle filtering in both aggregated and age-structured population compartmental models of pre-vaccination measles Xiaoyan Li1*, Alexander Doroshenko2, Nathaniel D. Osgood1 1 Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada 2 Department of Medicine, Division of Preventive Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada * [email protected] Abstract Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young children under 5 globally. While the use of ongoing surveillance data and { recently { dynamic models offer insight on measles dynamics, both suffer notable shortcomings when applied to measles outbreak prediction. In this paper, we apply the Sequential Monte Carlo approach of particle filtering, incorporating reported measles incidence for Saskatchewan during the pre-vaccination era, using an adaptation of a previously contributed measles compartmental model. To secure further insight, we also perform particle filtering on an age structured adaptation of the model in which the population is divided into two interacting age groups { children and adults. The results indicate that, when used with a suitable dynamic model, particle filtering can offer high predictive capacity for measles dynamics and outbreak occurrence in a low vaccination context. We have investigated five particle filtering models in this project. Based on the most competitive model as evaluated by predictive accuracy, we have performed prediction and outbreak classification analysis. -
Lecture 8 the Kalman Filter
EE363 Winter 2008-09 Lecture 8 The Kalman filter • Linear system driven by stochastic process • Statistical steady-state • Linear Gauss-Markov model • Kalman filter • Steady-state Kalman filter 8–1 Linear system driven by stochastic process we consider linear dynamical system xt+1 = Axt + But, with x0 and u0, u1,... random variables we’ll use notation T x¯t = E xt, Σx(t)= E(xt − x¯t)(xt − x¯t) and similarly for u¯t, Σu(t) taking expectation of xt+1 = Axt + But we have x¯t+1 = Ax¯t + Bu¯t i.e., the means propagate by the same linear dynamical system The Kalman filter 8–2 now let’s consider the covariance xt+1 − x¯t+1 = A(xt − x¯t)+ B(ut − u¯t) and so T Σx(t +1) = E (A(xt − x¯t)+ B(ut − u¯t))(A(xt − x¯t)+ B(ut − u¯t)) T T T T = AΣx(t)A + BΣu(t)B + AΣxu(t)B + BΣux(t)A where T T Σxu(t) = Σux(t) = E(xt − x¯t)(ut − u¯t) thus, the covariance Σx(t) satisfies another, Lyapunov-like linear dynamical system, driven by Σxu and Σu The Kalman filter 8–3 consider special case Σxu(t)=0, i.e., x and u are uncorrelated, so we have Lyapunov iteration T T Σx(t +1) = AΣx(t)A + BΣu(t)B , which is stable if and only if A is stable if A is stable and Σu(t) is constant, Σx(t) converges to Σx, called the steady-state covariance, which satisfies Lyapunov equation T T Σx = AΣxA + BΣuB thus, we can calculate the steady-state covariance of x exactly, by solving a Lyapunov equation (useful for starting simulations in statistical steady-state) The Kalman filter 8–4 Example we consider xt+1 = Axt + wt, with 0.6 −0.8 A = , 0.7 0.6 where wt are IID N (0, I) eigenvalues of A are -
Dynamic Detection of Change Points in Long Time Series
AISM (2007) 59: 349–366 DOI 10.1007/s10463-006-0053-9 Nicolas Chopin Dynamic detection of change points in long time series Received: 23 March 2005 / Revised: 8 September 2005 / Published online: 17 June 2006 © The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 2006 Abstract We consider the problem of detecting change points (structural changes) in long sequences of data, whether in a sequential fashion or not, and without assuming prior knowledge of the number of these change points. We reformulate this problem as the Bayesian filtering and smoothing of a non standard state space model. Towards this goal, we build a hybrid algorithm that relies on particle filter- ing and Markov chain Monte Carlo ideas. The approach is illustrated by a GARCH change point model. Keywords Change point models · GARCH models · Markov chain Monte Carlo · Particle filter · Sequential Monte Carlo · State state models 1 Introduction The assumption that an observed time series follows the same fixed stationary model over a very long period is rarely realistic. In economic applications for instance, common sense suggests that the behaviour of economic agents may change abruptly under the effect of economic policy, political events, etc. For example, Mikosch and St˘aric˘a (2003, 2004) point out that GARCH models fit very poorly too long sequences of financial data, say 20 years of daily log-returns of some speculative asset. Despite this, these models remain highly popular, thanks to their forecast ability (at least on short to medium-sized time series) and their elegant simplicity (which facilitates economic interpretation). Against the common trend of build- ing more and more sophisticated stationary models that may spuriously provide a better fit for such long sequences, the aforementioned authors argue that GARCH models remain a good ‘local’ approximation of the behaviour of financial data, N. -
Bayesian Filtering: from Kalman Filters to Particle Filters, and Beyond ZHE CHEN
MANUSCRIPT 1 Bayesian Filtering: From Kalman Filters to Particle Filters, and Beyond ZHE CHEN Abstract— In this self-contained survey/review paper, we system- IV Bayesian Optimal Filtering 9 atically investigate the roots of Bayesian filtering as well as its rich IV-AOptimalFiltering..................... 10 leaves in the literature. Stochastic filtering theory is briefly reviewed IV-BKalmanFiltering..................... 11 with emphasis on nonlinear and non-Gaussian filtering. Following IV-COptimumNonlinearFiltering.............. 13 the Bayesian statistics, different Bayesian filtering techniques are de- IV-C.1Finite-dimensionalFilters............ 13 veloped given different scenarios. Under linear quadratic Gaussian circumstance, the celebrated Kalman filter can be derived within the Bayesian framework. Optimal/suboptimal nonlinear filtering tech- V Numerical Approximation Methods 14 niques are extensively investigated. In particular, we focus our at- V-A Gaussian/Laplace Approximation ............ 14 tention on the Bayesian filtering approach based on sequential Monte V-BIterativeQuadrature................... 14 Carlo sampling, the so-called particle filters. Many variants of the V-C Mulitgrid Method and Point-Mass Approximation . 14 particle filter as well as their features (strengths and weaknesses) are V-D Moment Approximation ................. 15 discussed. Related theoretical and practical issues are addressed in V-E Gaussian Sum Approximation . ............. 16 detail. In addition, some other (new) directions on Bayesian filtering V-F Deterministic -
Monte Carlo Smoothing for Nonlinear Time Series
Monte Carlo Smoothing for Nonlinear Time Series Simon J. GODSILL, Arnaud DOUCET, and Mike WEST We develop methods for performing smoothing computations in general state-space models. The methods rely on a particle representation of the filtering distributions, and their evolution through time using sequential importance sampling and resampling ideas. In particular, novel techniques are presented for generation of sample realizations of historical state sequences. This is carried out in a forward-filtering backward-smoothing procedure that can be viewed as the nonlinear, non-Gaussian counterpart of standard Kalman filter-based simulation smoothers in the linear Gaussian case. Convergence in the mean squared error sense of the smoothed trajectories is proved, showing the validity of our proposed method. The methods are tested in a substantial application for the processing of speech signals represented by a time-varying autoregression and parameterized in terms of time-varying partial correlation coefficients, comparing the results of our algorithm with those from a simple smoother based on the filtered trajectories. KEY WORDS: Bayesian inference; Non-Gaussian time series; Nonlinear time series; Particle filter; Sequential Monte Carlo; State- space model. 1. INTRODUCTION and In this article we develop Monte Carlo methods for smooth- g(yt+1|xt+1)p(xt+1|y1:t ) p(xt+1|y1:t+1) = . ing in general state-space models. To fix notation, consider p(yt+1|y1:t ) the standard Markovian state-space model (West and Harrison 1997) Similarly, smoothing can be performed recursively backward in time using the smoothing formula xt+1 ∼ f(xt+1|xt ) (state evolution density), p(xt |y1:t )f (xt+1|xt ) p(x |y ) = p(x + |y ) dx + . -
Time Series Analysis 5
Warm-up: Recursive Least Squares Kalman Filter Nonlinear State Space Models Particle Filtering Time Series Analysis 5. State space models and Kalman filtering Andrew Lesniewski Baruch College New York Fall 2019 A. Lesniewski Time Series Analysis Warm-up: Recursive Least Squares Kalman Filter Nonlinear State Space Models Particle Filtering Outline 1 Warm-up: Recursive Least Squares 2 Kalman Filter 3 Nonlinear State Space Models 4 Particle Filtering A. Lesniewski Time Series Analysis Warm-up: Recursive Least Squares Kalman Filter Nonlinear State Space Models Particle Filtering OLS regression As a motivation for the reminder of this lecture, we consider the standard linear model Y = X Tβ + "; (1) where Y 2 R, X 2 Rk , and " 2 R is noise (this includes the model with an intercept as a special case in which the first component of X is assumed to be 1). Given n observations x1;:::; xn and y1;:::; yn of X and Y , respectively, the ordinary least square least (OLS) regression leads to the following estimated value of the coefficient β: T −1 T βbn = (Xn Xn) Xn Yn: (2) The matrices X and Y above are defined as 0 T1 0 1 x1 y1 X = B . C 2 (R) Y = B . C 2 Rn; @ . A Matn;k and n @ . A (3) T xn yn respectively. A. Lesniewski Time Series Analysis Warm-up: Recursive Least Squares Kalman Filter Nonlinear State Space Models Particle Filtering Recursive least squares Suppose now that X and Y consists of a streaming set of data, and each new observation leads to an updated value of the estimated β. -
Adaptive Motion Model for Human Tracking Using Particle Filter
2010 International Conference on Pattern Recognition Adaptive Motion Model for Human Tracking Using Particle Filter Mohammad Hossein Ghaeminia1, Amir Hossein Shabani2, and Shahryar Baradaran Shokouhi1 1Iran Univ. of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran 2University of Waterloo, ON, Canada [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract is periodically adapted by an efficient learning procedure (Figure 1). The core of learning the motion This paper presents a novel approach to model the model is the parameter estimation for which the complex motion of human using a probabilistic sequence of velocity and acceleration are innovatively autoregressive moving average model. The analyzed to be modeled by a Gaussian Mixture Model parameters of the model are adaptively tuned during (GMM). The non-negative matrix factorization is then the course of tracking by utilizing the main varying used for dimensionality reduction to take care of high components of the pdf of the target’s acceleration and variations during abrupt changes [3]. Utilizing this velocity. This motion model, along with the color adaptive motion model along with a color histogram histogram as the measurement model, has been as measurement model in the PF framework provided incorporated in the particle filtering framework for us an appropriate approach for human tracking in the human tracking. The proposed method is evaluated by real world scenario of PETS benchmark [4]. PETS benchmark in which the targets have non- The rest of this paper is organized as the following. smooth motion and suddenly change their motion Section 2 overviews the related works. Section 3 direction. Our method competes with the state-of-the- explains the particle filter and the probabilistic ARMA art techniques for human tracking in the real world model. -
Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering Estimation of Ebola
Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering Estimation of Ebola Progression in West Africa 1, 1 2 1 Narges Montazeri Shahtori ∗, Caterina Scoglio , Arash Pourhabib , and Faryad Darabi Sahneh approaches is that they provide an offline inference of an Abstract— We use a multivariate formulation of sequential outbreak that is inherently dynamic and parameters of model Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola change during disease evolution, so we need to keep tracking virus propagation and available incidence data to simultane- ously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters when new data become available. Furthermore, parameters. This method has the advantage of performing since lots of factors such as intervention strategies could the inference online as the new data becomes available and affect on parameters, we expect that the basic reproductive estimates the evolution of basic reproductive ratio R0(t) of the ratio changes during the disease evolution. Therefore we Ebola outbreak through time. Our analysis identifies a peak in need techniques that are able to trace new data as they the basic reproductive ratio close to the time when Ebola cases were reported in Europe and the USA. become available. Towevers et al. [6] estimated the basic reproduction ratio, R0(t), by fitting exponential regression I. INTRODUCTION models to small successive time intervals of the Ebola Since December 2013, West Africa has experienced the outbreak. Therefore, they obtained an estimate of temporal largest Ebola outbreak with more than 20,000 infected cases variations of the growth rate. Their application of regression reported [1]. Secondary infections have also been reported models ignores the systemic epidemiological information in Spain and the United state [2]. -
Floor Plan-Free Particle Filter for Indoor Positioning of Industrial Vehicles
Floor Plan-free Particle Filter for Indoor Positioning of Industrial Vehicles Ivo Silvaa, Adriano Moreiraa, Maria Jo~ao Nicolaua and Cristiano Pend~aoa aAlgoritmi Research Center, University of Minho, Portugal Abstract Industry 4.0 is triggering the rapid development of solutions for indoor localization of industrial ve- hicles in the factories of the future. Either to support indoor navigation or to improve the operations of the factory, the localization of industrial vehicles imposes demanding requirements such as high accuracy, coverage of the entire operating area, low convergence time and high reliability. Industrial vehicles can be located using Wi-Fi fingerprinting, although with large positioning errors. In addition, these vehicles may be tracked with motion sensors, however an initial position is necessary and these sensors often suffer from cumulative errors (e.g. drift in the heading). To overcome these problems, we propose an indoor positioning system (IPS) based on a particle filter that combines Wi-Fi fingerprinting with data from motion sensors (displacement and heading). Wi-Fi position estimates are obtained using a novel approach, which explores signal strength measurements from multiple Wi-Fi interfaces. This IPS is capable of locating a vehicle prototype without prior knowledge of the starting position and heading, without depending on the building's floor plan. An average positioning error of 0.74 m was achieved in performed tests in a factory-like building. Keywords indoor positioning, particle filter, Wi-Fi fingerprinting, sensor fusion, industrial vehicles 1. Introduction Factories of the future rely on the automation of vehicles to increase productivity in processes such as delivering raw materials and dispatching finished products. -
Kalman-Filter Control Schemes for Fringe Tracking
A&A 541, A81 (2012) Astronomy DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201218932 & c ESO 2012 Astrophysics Kalman-filter control schemes for fringe tracking Development and application to VLTI/GRAVITY J. Menu1,2,3,, G. Perrin1,3, E. Choquet1,3, and S. Lacour1,3 1 LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, UPMC, Université Paris Diderot, Paris Sciences et Lettres, 5 place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon, France 2 Instituut voor Sterrenkunde, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, 3001 Leuven, Belgium e-mail: [email protected] 3 Groupement d’Intérêt Scientifique PHASE (Partenariat Haute résolution Angulaire Sol Espace) between ONERA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS and Université Paris Diderot, France Received 31 January 2012 / Accepted 28 February 2012 ABSTRACT Context. The implementation of fringe tracking for optical interferometers is inevitable when optimal exploitation of the instrumental capacities is desired. Fringe tracking allows continuous fringe observation, considerably increasing the sensitivity of the interfero- metric system. In addition to the correction of atmospheric path-length differences, a decent control algorithm should correct for disturbances introduced by instrumental vibrations, and deal with other errors propagating in the optical trains. Aims. In an effort to improve upon existing fringe-tracking control, especially with respect to vibrations, we attempt to construct con- trol schemes based on Kalman filters. Kalman filtering is an optimal data processing algorithm for tracking and correcting a system on which observations are performed. As a direct application, control schemes are designed for GRAVITY, a future four-telescope near-infrared beam combiner for the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). Methods. We base our study on recent work in adaptive-optics control.