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March 4 Primaries Brainroom Briefing Book March 4 Primaries Brainroom Briefing Book Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel Table of Contents Delegates Available on March 4 – p. 3 Vermont – p. 4 Democrats in Vermont – p. 5 Republicans in Vermont – p. 6 Profile of Vermont – p. 6 Past Primary Results from Vermont – p. 8 Ohio – p. 9 Republicans in Ohio – p. 10 Democrats in Ohio – p. 11 NAFTA – p. 12 Mortgage Crisis – p. 13 Economic Troubles in Ohio – p. 14 Profile of Ohio – p. 15 Past Primary Results from Ohio – p. 17 10th District Democratic Primary – Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio) – p. 18 Texas – p. 19 Democrats in Texas – p. 20 Democrats Spending Heavily in Texas – p. 21 Republicans in Texas – p. 21 Republican Cross-Over Voters – p. 22 Two Contests for the Democrats – p. 23 Profile of Texas – p. 25 Hispanic Voters in Texas – p. 25 Black Voters in Texas – p. 28 Turnout Indicators and Predictions – p. 31 Past Primary Results from Texas – p. 33 14th District Republican Primary – Rep. Ron Paul (R–Texas) – p. 34 Rhode Island – p. 35 Democrats in Rhode Island – p. 36 Republicans in Rhode Island – p. 36 Profile of Rhode Island– p. 37 Past Primary Results from Rhode Island– p. 38 Endnotes – p. 40 2 Delegates Available on March 4 State Democratic Republican Ohio 141 85 Rhode Island 21 17 Texas 193 137 Vermont 15 17 Total 370 256 3 VERMONT Polls Open 7:00 AM (EST) – Polls Close 7:00 PM (EST) Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates Vermont Open There is no 15 in the primary 17 in the primary primary party registration in 10 district level 17 statewide Vermont. 5 statewide Registered Total: 17 voters are 8 super-delegates (GOP delegate total eligible to includes 3 pledged RNC participate in Total: 23 delegates.) either primary. Pledged district level Pledged delegates are delegates are allocated winner-take-all by statewide according to the primary vote. vote in each CD, with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold. Introduction Despite its late primary and relatively small number of delegates, Vermont could matter after all in who becomes the Democratic presidential nominee.1 The second-smallest state by population, Vermont will send fewer than two dozen delegates to each of the parties' nominating conventions. And its March 4 primary comes late in the game; many expected both major parties' nominations to be settled by then.2 Unlike recent presidential campaigns when the nomination has been decided by early March, the Vermont primary could play a role this year in choosing the Democratic nominee to run against McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.3 Obama and McCain have big leads over their rivals in the few Vermont polls. Obama had the support of 57 percent of likely Democratic primary voters and Clinton had 33 percent, the most recent Rasmussen poll found. Among likely Republican primary voters, McCain led with 69 percent, while Huckabee had 17 percent and Ron Paul had 5 percent. The poll by the New Jersey-based firm of Rasmussen Reports was based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 24 with 1,527 likely Vermont voters. Of those surveyed, 1,013 said they would vote in the Democratic primary and 514 in the GOP primary. Because of the larger number of respondents, Rasmussen's poll of likely Vermont Democratic primary voters had an error margin of three percentage points, while the Republican primary poll's error margin was 4.5 percentage points.4 4 Obama and Clinton have paid staff in Vermont and have opened campaign offices. Both have also run television advertising. No Republican candidate, including McCain, has paid staff or offices in the state. Vermont Republicans are bracing for the likelihood that turnout in the state's March 4 presidential primary will tilt strongly toward the Democrats, but are confident that, come this fall, Republican McCain will do well here. "I expect you'll see a turnout for the Democrats that's three or four times as much as the Republicans in the primary," said former House Speaker Walter Freed of Dorset. "I wouldn't be surprised to see some Republicans participate in the Democratic primary." Freed and several other Vermont Republicans who have been involved in statewide politics over the years say a heavy Democratic turnout in March should not be seen as a predictor of how the state will vote in the fall. Jill Krowinski, executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party, said a potential record turnout in Vermont in the Democratic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raises the party's visibility with new voters. Krowinski said a huge turnout will also pay dividends for the party for months afterward by attracting motivated people drawn into politics by the excitement of the presidential race. All signs point to large turnout by independent voters in Vermont, a state that has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections and one that allows independents -- the largest sector of the state's electorate -- to pick which party's primary they want to participate in when they show up to vote. According to a poll of likely Vermont primary voters conducted last week by the American Research Group Inc. polling company, independent voters by a 2-1 ratio say they will be voting in the Democratic primary March 4.5 Voters in Vermont choose one party's presidential primary ballot, and whatever ballot they choose will be public record. This is because the Legislature and political parties agreed that instead of requiring voters to register with a party, voters would have to publicly disclose which party ballot they are voting so that the Vermont primary will count toward the party's delegate selection process.6 Democrats in Vermont Both candidates have been running television ads in the state.7 The Obama campaign announced, on Feb. 25, that it will open three additional offices in Bennington, Brattleboro and Rutland -- bringing the total number of offices in Vermont to seven.8 As of Feb. 26, the Obama campaign had 10 paid staffers in Vermont. On Feb. 26, the Clinton camp announced the opening of its second Vermont campaign office, in Rutland. The other one is in Burlington. Vermont campaign spokeswoman Carly Lindauer said there were nine paid staffers in the state, but that no more offices will be opened. "We have folks organizing throughout the state," Lindauer said. Supporters are staffing phone banks, doing honk and waves on street corners and talking to people about their support for Clinton.9 5 Obama's campaign plans an intense get-out-the-vote effort over the weekend, with volunteers staffing phone banks in seven locations across the state, according to spokesman Ted Brady. Chelsea Clinton hit the campaign trail in Vermont on behalf of her mother Friday (Feb. 29). Neither Hillary Clinton nor Obama are expected to campaign in Vermont before Tuesday's election. On Thursday, Obama picked up endorsements from 41 Vermont lawmakers.10 On Feb. 18, the co-founders of Ben & Jerry's Homemade Inc. announced at a news conference hosted by Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., that they were supporting Obama. Leahy, along with a number of top state Democrats, is backing Obama.11 As of Jan. 31, according to figures kept by the Federal Election Commission, Vermonters had contributed more than $506,969 to Obama, versus less than $55,269for Clinton.12 Anthony Gierzynski, a political scientist at the University of Vermont, said all signs point to an Obama victory in Vermont. But he said it would be worth Clinton's while to keep a presence in the state, given that Vermont could send a split delegation to the Democratic convention in Denver. "Clinton's state is across the lake," Gierzynski said. "She's going to do well enough to win some delegates here. But I suspect he'll win by a rather large margin."13 Republicans in Vermont McCain is certain to win Vermont, making the state less of a battleground on the Republican side. Since the GOP primary is winner-take-all, there's less incentive for Huckabee to campaign in the state and try to peel off some of Vermont's GOP delegates. The real excitement is on the Democratic side.14 McCain stumped in the state recently, but Democrats Obama and Clinton haven't.15 McCain's Feb. 14 trip to Vermont was his third visit to the state. He visited Vermont during his first presidential campaign in 1999 and again in 2006.16 Ron Paul has people going door-to-door talking to voters, plus radio and newspaper ads running around the state -- all organized and funded by Paul supporters in Vermont without help from Paul's national campaign office. McCain's operation, by comparison, has no staff working in Vermont and is being run from New Hampshire by Jim Barnett, a McCain aide and former chairman of the Vermont Republican Party. Huckabee appears to have no presence in the state. Paul is not expected to make a campaign visit to Vermont. In addition to running for president, back home he is facing a stiff March 4 GOP primary challenge for re-election to his House seat.17 Profile of Vermont Vermont, which is holding its presidential primaries March 4, had a 2007 population of about 620,000. Vermont has a higher median age, a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of blacks and Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 67 percent of Vermont’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election; the national rate was 64 percent.
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