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Kuwait Monthly Economic Brief

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Kuwait Monthly Economic Brief AUGUST 2008 KUWAIT MONTHLY ECONOMIC BRIEF Salhiya Complex - Gate 8 - Floor 5 P.O.Box: 1520, Safat, Kuwait 13016 Tel.: +965 245 8383 - Fax: +965 245 8363 Email: [email protected] Kuwait • New York • Cayman Island • Dubai Webpage: www.univestgroup.com NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER / LIMITATION OF LIABILITY Data and information released/provided in this report are provided on an “As Is” basis, without warranty of any kind, including without limitation the warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement. Analysis provided is based on financial and economic data gathered using primary research techniques. Availability of this data and information does not constitute scientific publication. Univest Group does not assume responsibility for any omissions and/or errors in data provided by institutions referenced and quoted in this document. Univest Group and its research team make no representation or warranty, express or implied, including without limitation any warranties or merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or warranties as to the identity or ownership of data or information, the quality, accuracy or completeness of data or information, or that the use of such data or information will not infringe any patent, intellectual property or proprietary rights of any party. Univest Group shall not be liable for any claim for any loss, harm, illness or other damage or injury arising from access to or use of data or information, including without limitation any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, special or consequential damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Appropriate acknowledgment of Univest Group should be made in any publications or other disclosures concerning data or information made available in this report. Kuwait Monthly Economic Brief –August 2008 FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS STOCK MARKET SNAPSHOT Volume (000) Sector Market By the end of August, the value of transactions executed at the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange (KSE) amounted to KD 2,187 million, marking a new Al Qurain Holding 1,284,620 6.49% 2.18% low in trading activity. The average value of trades executed per day Source: Univest Research amounted to KD 99 million, marking a monthly decline of 13.16%. The number of trades executed dropped by 20.54% to 115,764 All Sectoral indices trended higher YTD, with the exception of food and transactions; leading to an average value per deal of KD 18,886. The banking sectors that diverted from the general market trend. The real volume of traded shares accounted for 6.47% of total traded YTD, estate sector continued to be in the lead recording the highest growth in amounting to 3,805 million and marking a monthly drop of 29.93%. its index at 26.83%, followed by the industrial sector that replaced the services sector in the second place, marking a growth rate of 26.67%. Table 1.1 YTD KSE Trading Activity Breakdown The industrial sector marked the highest beta for the end of August Transactions Volume Value followed by investment and services sectors at 1.19, 1.09 and 1.05 respectively. Banking Sector 5.74% 3.21% 10.56% Table 1.4 KSE Sectoral Indices: Volatility vs. Risk Investments Sector 31.09% 33.64% 29.55% YTD ∆ Beta Alpha Insurance Sector 0.17% 0.08% 0.10% Banking Sector -5.95% 0.822 -0.0011 Real Estate Sector 20.20% 21.70% 16.39% Investments Sector 9.70% 1.099 -0.0004 Industrial Sector 9.44% 5.42% 10.02% Insurance Sector 11.05% 0.227 0.0005 Services Sector 26.42% 28.85% 26.16% Real Estate Sector 26.83% 1.022 0.0006 Food Sector 1.21% 1.12% 0.79% Industrial Sector 26.67% 1.190 0.0004 Non-Kuwaiti 5.72% 5.99% 6.43%% Services Sector 23.47% 1.050 0.0004 Source: Kuwait Stock Exchange Food Sector -12.62% 0.321 -0.0011 Table 1.2 KSE Trading Volume Review Non-Kuwaiti Sector 11.85% 0.903 -0.0001 Volume (000) Avg. Daily Volume Avg. Daily Value Source: Univest Research APR 08 8,547,533 388,524,232 159,457,835 MAY 08 8,152,561 370,570,972 147,299,443 KSE YTD ADVANCERS More than 70.00% of the securities traded on KSE were in the red in JUN 08 8,625,553 392,070,568 178,072,335 August, with the volume associated with these securities accounting for JUL 08 5,430,122 246,823,705 113,558,788 93% of total trading activity. YTD, the picture was not that different reflecting the violent correction movement the market has been AUG 08 3,805,384 172,971,977 99,378,445 undergoing, especially over the past few months. YTD TOTAL 58,822,341 334,217,846 154,283,408 The number of advancing stocks comprised 28.50% of market's total listed Source: Univest Research securities; with their respective traded volume comprising 39.13% of market's outstanding total YTD, down from the July-level of 48.36%. The Advancers/Decliners Volume Ration dropped for the second month in a At the securities level, the top three companies volume-wise were in raw from 1.04 to 0.32 by month-end. order: As Safwa Group Holding (ALSAFWA.KSE), National Ranges Company (MAYADEEN.KSE) and Ektitab Holding (EKTITAB.KSE) at 8.34%, 5.64% and 4.63% respectively YTD. MENA Holding Group (MENAHOLD.KSE) continued to be in the lead, recording the highest YTD growth with its share price rising by the equivalent of 1,580 Fils in absolute terms to 1,840 Fils. Table 1.3 Most Actively Traded Securities Volume (000) Sector Market Table 1.5 Top Gainers YTD As Safwa Group Holding 4,904,520 28.91% 8.34% Close Change YTD National Ranges Co 3,318,240 19.56% 5.64% MENA Holding Group 1,840 1,580 607.69% Ektitab Holding 2,722,870 13.76% 4.63% Aref Energy Holding Co 410 210 105.00% Soukouk Holding 2,122,460 10.73% 3.61% Abyaar Real Estate Development Co 690 305 79.22% Page 1 Kuwait Monthly Economic Brief –August 2008 Close Change YTD BANKING SECTOR Kuwait Building Materials Manufacturing 620 270 77.14% The banking sector's index closed at 13,992.30 points in August, marking a monthly drop of 3.33%. YTD, the index had recorded a decline of 5.95%. National Slaughter House 355 147 70.67% The average value per deal in the banking sector stood at KD 33,931, marking a drop of 3.47% from the July-level. The highest values in this Source: Kuwait Stock Exchange category were recorded by National Bank of Kuwait (NBK.KSE), Kuwait Finance House (KFIN.KSE) and Commercial Bank of Kuwait (CBK.KSE) at KSE YTD DECLINERS KD 53,186, KD 41,408 and KD 39,590 respectively. Out of a total of stocks traded on KSE, 69.00% recorded a decline in By August-end, the value of trades executed stood at KD 2,868 million, their respective share prices YTD with shares traded associated with marking a monthly increase of 5.21%. The value of trades in the sector decliners comprising 60.40% of total volume executed. International comprised 10.56%, down from the previous month's level of 10.92%. Financial Advisors (IFA.KSE) and Mushrif Trading & Contracting Company (MTCC.KSE) recorded the steepest decline at 60.11% and Chart 1.2 Banking Sector Value Index 55.80% respectively. Mobile Telecommunication Company (ZAIN.KSE) ranked third in the decliners' roster losing 54.97% of its share price value 128.00 01/01/2008 - 08/31/2008 High: 16,944.30 (03/12/2008) since the beginning of the year; the equivalent of 2,100 Fils in absolute 126.00 Close: 13,992.30 (08/31/2008) Low: 13,797.20 (08/28/2008) terms. 124.00 122.00 120.00 Table 1.6 Top Decliners YTD 118.00 116.00 Close Change YTD 114.00 112.00 International Financial Advisors 355 - 535 - 60.11% 110.00 108.00 106.00 Mushrif Trading & Contracting Co 305 - 385 - 55.80% 104.00 102.00 Mobile Telecommunications Co 1,720 - 2,100 -54.97% 100.00 98.00 International Finance Co 290 - 290 - 50.00% 96.00 94.00 KSE Index 08 Hajj & Umrah Services Consortium 490 - 480 -49.48% 92.00 Banking Sector Index 08 90.00 14 per. Mov. Avg. (Banking Sector Index 08) Source: Kuwait Stock Exchange KUWAIT STOCK INDEX Source: Univest Research KSE index dropped by 530 points in August closing at 14,446.70 points. KFIN, NBK and Burgan Bank (BURG.KSE) continued to lead the trading Despite this monthly drop, YTD the index managed to record an activity in terms of value accounting for 70.54% and 7.68% of the increase of 15.50%. KSE's weighted index recorded a YTD change of sector's and KSE's outstanding total respectively. 0.28% down from the previous month's level of 4.96%, closing in the process at 721.28 points by month-end. Volume-wise, Boubyan Bank (BOUBYAN.KSE) ranked first capturing 17.86% of sector's total, followed by KFIN and BURG at 15.97% and Chart 1.1 KSE Value Index 15.93% respectively. Table 1.7 Banking Sector's Top Five: Ranked by Value 127.00 01/01/2008 - 08/31/2008 High: 15,654.80 (06/24/2008) Close: 14,446.70 (8/31/2008) Low: 12,507.70 (01/02/2008) 125.00 Deals Volume Value 123.00 121.00 Kuwait Finance House 26.89% 15.97% 32.81% 119.00 National Bank of Kuwait 16.76% 19.42% 26.26% 117.00 115.00 Burgan Bank 11.06% 15.93% 11.47% 113.00 111.00 Boubyan Bank 17.42% 17.86% 8.07% 109.00 Commercial Bank of Kuwait 6.00% 6.81% 6.99% 107.00 105.00 Source: Kuwait Stock Exchange 103.00 101.00 KSE Index 08 YTD, all securities in the sector were in the red with KFIN joining its 99.00 KSE Weighted Index 08 peers recording a YTD drop of 6.25%.
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