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#97 7 - 13 June 2002 16 pages Rs 20 Monsoon moods 9 EXCLUSIVE PUSKAR○○○○○○○○○○○○○ GAUTAM ○○○○○○○ he Maoists have benefited greatly Royal soundbites from the political disarray in T Kathmandu. And they seem to be (Excerpts from an unofficial using the time to re-strategise while waiting translation of King Gyanendraís interview with Nepal Televisionís for the Congress’s internal crisis to play Durga Nath Sharma on 5 June.) itself out, and perhaps prepare for what DENOUEMENT Baburam Bhattarai calls their “decisive his Nepali proteges have memorised that There is an ominous calm. Is a storm near? offensive”. line. It is conceivable that the Maoists will They need a big push at this time to wait to make one last attempt to stop the avenge the massive defeat in Khara in which escalation of the conflict to a dramatic new the army says at least 200 guerrillas were level. The Koirala faction of the Congress killed. Then, there is the need to carry out has re-opened back channels with the something spectacular near Kathmandu to Maoists, and the Maoists, in a classic two- force the government to give up its track strategy, have kept the door to surrender-before-talks stance. It has become negotiations open. Prachanda’s last When we came to the throne it was an pretty clear to the Maoists that overrunning statement on May Day, hinting at unexpected and unimaginable an army garrison in the far-west does not negotiations , was one of the most concilia- situation…I couldn’t have ever imagined make the powers-that-be in Kathmandu sit tory he has ever made. But by repeatedly SANJAY things would turn out that way. The up and take notice. rebuffing these offers, Deuba’s government biggest and most encouraging thing was Security sources tell us that captured has come out looking hardline. And that we were able to face the challenge Maoists have been speaking of preparations although Britain, the United States and Dead Maoist guerrillas after the Battle for Khara on 28 May. with the people’s support. That was most underway for major attacks on military or India have supported the government’s important. infrastructure targets. The shootout in stance, the Europeans now seem to think 3. Start the process of dialogue for socio- their struggle. In their analysis, the Shining Nepalis I have met have told me that Changu Narayan on Tuesday in which six there is no reason why there shouldn’t be economic reforms and lasting peace; and Path and the Colombian revolutions failed those responsible for making democracy alleged Maoists were killed was one of the secret talks. 4. Have an all-party caretaker government to because they let Strategic Balance drag on flourish are not playing the role they most serious skirmishes inside the Valley so The Maoists also face increasing oversee elections, in which the Maoists for too long. In Nepal, the Maoists think a should be. And until that happens, the benefits democracy far. Reports from the hinterland confirm internal pressures. Hardliners in the military may also participate. quick push when the state is vulnerable will cannot bring peace CK Lal p2 that there is assembly-line manufacture of wing are impatient, and ethnic militant “These actions may bring the Maoists into take them to victory. But they don’t seem and security to the Past imperfect, improvised explosives, and massive forced allies like the Khumbuwan Mukti Morcha the political process,” Shrestha told us. to have reckoned with some other factors. citizens. future uncertain recruitment from every family of one young have split over whether or not to stay with “Otherwise the elections may not mean The security forces are now banking on Why look at man or woman. Thousands of boys and the Maoists. The militia is feeling the heat anything.” For their part, the Maoists seem superior intelligence, and have also launched a elections negatively? I feel the govern- girls have fled to the towns and Kathmandu from the security forces, and also losing convinced that the government will not psy-war campaign with posters, pamphlets, ment, political parties, different classes in the past month. local support due to its extortion, food willingly create these conditions, and are television programmes and even an exhibition of society, have to look at it as a positive The Maoists appear to have decided looting and forced recruitment. All this therefore consolidating their forces for of captured Maoist artefacts at Tundikhel. thing, and prepare for free elections on that the time is ripe for their “war ki par” could indicate that the Maoists have an offensive. The idea is to portray the Maoists as anti- the specified dates. (do or die) moment. Baburam Bhattarai decided that it is now or never. The Maoists were considerably encour- people and unpatriotic. And India is the wild The continuity of the institution of himself hints as much in his interview with Mulyankan editor Shyam Shrestha says aged by the ease with which they razed the card. The Maoists know that their big monarchy rests on the faith, trust and respect of the Nepali people. the Maoist paper Jana Awaj on 9 April, this actually presents an opportunity for garrison in Gam, and may have figured that push will not be successful if the Indians Those who cannot deliver (develop- where he said: “It is likely that the decisive peace, and that the run-up to the elections they are now ready for conventional battles continue their crackdown on their ment) should not blame the system. leap forward can be taken in the next could be when the Maoists and the against the army. However, the defeat at cadre in India. Our peace-loving country today is few months.” government might reach a compromise. His Khara two weeks ago proved that the army’s Nepal is now polarised between the caught in a spiral of violence. If all sides One contributing factor to this is the four-step peace plan goes like this: night-time air support and the quality of revolutionaries and the reactionaries, and are committed to the well-being of the political infighting, which is coming to a 1. Lift the emergency; command can easily tip the balance both could invite outside interference. nation and the people, we believe a head, and the polarisation among 2. Declare a ceasefire to provide space for against them. But Nepalis have a third choice: side with solution can emerge from an approach parliamentary parties. Mao Zedong said political activity and let the economy The Maoists may feel that they have forces of democracy, and press for compatible with the constitution. “hit the enemy when it is in a crisis,” and recover; reached the “Strategic Balance” phase of progressive reforms. I want to tell the Nepali people: Live as Nepalis, be proud to be Nepalis. Let us learn to work for our nation and for its good. This nation will not ask you to make sacrifices, you have to step forward to do so. That is my message. “The government must urgently improve governance” Nepali Times: What is the Canadian position on future organisations as well as partnerships between civil society, More promises development assistance to Nepal in view of the current Canada is Nepal’s tenth largest government and the private sector to improve access to basic The government told donors Thursday it insurgency? donor with annual aid of Rs 350 services and increase productive capacities. We are happy with had come out with an “immediate action Peter Sutherland: Canada remains committed to assisting the million. Canadian ambassador to the results, but more importantly, we see around us strength- plan” to get its reform drive started. The government and the people of Nepal in their efforts to reduce Nepal, Peter Sutherland, speaks to ened Nepali institutions within local and central government as plan contains a list of promises the poverty. We have been development partners for over 30 years Nepali Times of aid priorities, well as civil society. It is with these partners that we will continue government says it will fulfil. One donor and intend to continue to support Nepali efforts towards to support poverty reduction and efforts towards equitable and told the government: “We’ve heard all equitable and sustainable development. In this difficult and Nepal’s capacity to use sustainable development. this before, what is the guarantee that environment, where the security of the women and men assistance effectively. What is your assessment of the governmentís present you will do it this time?” The pledges working with Canadian projects is our primary concern, we are ability to use foreign assistance effectively? come from a caretaker government that actively adjusting our programming and approaches so that There is scope for the government to increase its ability to does not even have a finance minister. they remain effective. We are finding that the programs which effectively and efficiently use foreign assistance. It needs to All eyes are now on the 2002/03 annual have been able to strengthen communities are the most address urgently issues of governance such as corruption, civil budget, which will be announced as an resilient in the current insecure environment. service reform and broad based participation at the grass roots ordinance in mid-July. Have your priorities for aid changed over the years? level. The present political instability and insurgency have During the 1970s and 80s, Canadian development assistance further constrained the government’s ability to expedite successfully supported the opening up of Nepal’s remote areas development in a balanced manner. In my view, the govern- by sharing Canadian technology and approaches to rural ment has to devolve more authority and resources to local Weekly Internet Poll # 37 access—particularly in the aviation sector.