GROPING IN THE DARK The First Decade of Global Modelling Donella Meadows John Richardson Gerhart Bruckmann This book is a real life history of global modelling. It is concerned with the major models and those who make them, the whole craft of modelling, and their principal results. A feature is the honesty, candour, and clarity with which the authors discuss what global modelling taught them about modelling and what it taught them about the world. It could be described as a book on the sociology of a new science struggling with problems too large for the participants but too important to ignore. This exciting and readable book is written forthose who make complex models of complex social systems, those who have to make these systems work, and those who live in and care about the social systems that modellers make and about which decision makers make decisions. Contents HIGHLIGHTS Lessons about the world Lessons about modelling Lessons about global modelling practice THE EDITORS' BIASES CHAPTER ONE. The History of the Sixth IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling A short editorial appreciation A lawyer's story CHAPTER TWO. What are global models and what have they taught us about the world? Models Computer models Global models What we may have learned so far Another way to think CHAPTER THREE. The cast of characters: an introduction to global models The Forrester/Meadows models The Mesarovic/Pestel model The Bariloche model The MOIRA model The SARU model The FUGI model The United Nations global model How global models differ and why How many worlds are there 7 CHAPTER FOUR. The actors have their say: the questionnaire responses by the global modellers The questionnaire The Forrester Meadows models The Mesarovic/Pestel model (contents continued on back flap) Groping in the dark The first decade of global modelling DONELLA MEADOWS JOHN RICHARDSON GERHARTBRUCKMANN JOHN WILEY & SONS Chichester· New York· Brisbane· Toronto· Singapore Copyright © 1982 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. All Rights Reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced by any means, nor transmitted, nor translated into a machine language without the written permission of the publisher. Library ofCongress Cataloging in Publication Data: Meadows, Donella H. Groping in the dark. Includes index. I. Economic history - Mathematical models. I. Richardson, John. II. Bruckmann, Gerhart. III. Title. HC59.M413 330.9 81-14713 ISBN0471100277 AACR2 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data: Groping in the dark. I. Economic history- Mathematical models I. Meadows, Donella II. Richardson, John III. Bruckmann, Gerhart 330.9 HC59 ISBN 0471 100277 Typeset by Photo-Graphics, Yarcombe, Honiton, Devon, England. Printed by J.W. Arrowsmith Limited, Bristol. This Book Is Dedicated to EVERYBODY who is NOT GROPING IN THE DARK A personal introduction This is a message from the editors Donella Meadows John Richardson Gerhart Bruckmann Who want to tell you, in a personal way, About how this book came to be written, How we feel about what it says, How it is organized, And, most important, Why you should take time from Reading other books, working thinking talking sleeping eating loving or whatever To read it. This book began as the official CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS of the Sixth IIASA Symposium on Global Modeling. (For those of you who may not have heard of IIASA, It IS the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. This Institute concerns itself with large-scale problems, and therefore has been interested in global modelling since it was founded in 1972.) It may strike you that Groping in the Dark Does not exactly resemble other CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, Which are VERY VALUABLE BOOKS because they Compile IMPORTANT IDEAS of IMPORTANT PEOPLE Provide a HISTORICAL RECORD of what transpired vii viii Offer DIVERSE PERSPECTIVES on a COMMON PROBLEM Reflect, more or less, the STATE OF THE ART But Unfortunately, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS are also often Disorganized Unfocused Of uneven quality Hastily compiled Somewhat boring, and Unread. And they never have titles like Groping in the Dark. Every editor and author hopes that his or her book will be EXCITING, SIGNIFICANT, DIFFERENT, AND READ BY MILLIONS. This book may not be READ BY MILLIONS But we are pretty sure that it is DIFFERENT And we think that it is EXCITING AND SIGNIFICANT Because it documents the struggle of some of the most interesting people we know to solve some of the most important problems we can think of. (It's not often that you get to listen to very good minds from around the world trying to improve the course of human history And being honest about how hard it is.) We were EXCITED about this Conference before it began, and even more so after it was over So IX We expanded the record of its Proceedings to make it accessible to a wider audience than just those who were there. There are three kinds of people in this wider audience: AUDIENCE # I. Those who make computer models of complex social systems. (The Conference participants and their colleagues) AUDIENCE # 2. Those who are formally responsible for making complex social systems work. (The decision makers and policy formulators we hear so much about) AUDIENCE # 3. Those who live in and care about the complex social systems that the modellers model and the decision makers decide about. In the case of global models, Audience # 3 consists of everyone. We thought a long time about how to make this book Meet the needs of three different audiences and at the same time reflect Our own feeling about the special importance of its contents. Finally we remembered a book that was Different from anything we had ever read before. It is called PLATFORM FOR CHANGE and is by Stafford Beer, the British cybernetician and philosopher. (If you haven't read it, you should.) Remembering that book helped us design this one. Like Platform for Change This book is printed On pages of different colors, Each of which means something. x YELLOW PAGES (like this one) are for our personal thoughts, experiences, and reflections. Every author or editor has these, of course, but they are usually filtered out before publication. Too bad, we think. BLUE PAGES are for important conclusions and highlights from the Conference. When we put something on a blue page if means that We think it is important, and a lot of other people think so too. WHITE PAGES are for the actual proceedings of the Conference. That is, what everyone else (including ourselves when we were playing the role of everyone else) said. GOLD PAGES introduce the field of global modelling and its history. They are intended to help many readers, especially Audiences # 2 and # 3, understand better what is written on the yellow, blue, and white pages. This format may make you uncomfortable. If so, you could ignore the yellow, blue, and gold pages, In which case the book will be much like All CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS you have read in the past. Or You could simply go back to Reading other books, working thinking talking etc. We hope you won't, because We believe that the future is going to be quite different from the past, XI that we all need to make decisions quite different from those we have made in the past, that we need to start looking at the world in a new way, and that THIS BOOK IS ABOUT A NEW AND NEEDED WAY OF LOOKING AT THE WORLD On the next page we shall begin by telling you the story that made us decide to entitle this book GROPING IN THE DARK xii A fable from the past There is more Light here Someone saw Nasrudin searching for something on the ground. 'What have you lost, Mulla?' he asked. 'My key,' said the Mulla. So they both went down on their knees and looked for it. After a time the other man asked: 'Where exactly did you drop it?' 'In my own house.' 'Then why are you looking here?' 'There is more light here than inside my own house.' (From The Exploits ofthe Incomparable Mulla Nasrudin by Idries Shah. Copyright © 1972 by Idries Shah. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, E.P. Dutton.) xiii A fable from the very recent past Once upon a time, in the eighth decade of the twentieth century A.D., there was a global modeller by the name of G. He was unhappy. Often at night he lay awake, his eyes open. He was considered a good teacher, capable of communicating complicated ideas to an uninformed or uninterested audience. But, alas, when it came to the concept of global modelling, a subject dear to his heart, he seemed to fail to communicate, over and over again. He was particularly frustrated when he discussed his craft with a colleague by the name of A, who was also a distinguished scholar and proficient modeller. Both G and A observed a strange phenomenon in their discussions. The words each one used obviously belonged to the English language, their syntax was in order, but somehow the sentences seemed to fly past each other without making any contact or conveying any meaning. Finally, after an especially sleepless night, G resolved to try again. He invited A for a long walk in the quiet and beautiful park that adjoined their research institute. Once again G explained to A the interconnected complex of the world's problems, the need to operate with a comprehensive picture rather than a partial one, the difficulty of understanding the situation intuitively, and the urgency of taking some action with imperfect models rather than waiting for better ones that might come too late.