DOCSLIB.ORG

The History Ofthe Sixth IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The History Ofthe Sixth IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling GROPING IN THE DARK The First Decade of Global Modelling Donella Meadows John Richardson Gerhart Bruckmann This book is a real life history of global modelling. It is concerned with the major models and those who make them, the whole craft of modelling, and their principal results. A feature is the honesty, candour, and clarity with which the authors discuss what global modelling taught them about modelling and what it taught them about the world. It could be described as a book on the sociology of a new science struggling with problems too large for the participants but too important to ignore. This exciting and readable book is written forthose who make complex models of complex social systems, those who have to make these systems work, and those who live in and care about the social systems that modellers make and about which decision makers make decisions. Contents HIGHLIGHTS Lessons about the world Lessons about modelling Lessons about global modelling practice THE EDITORS' BIASES CHAPTER ONE. The History of the Sixth IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling A short editorial appreciation A lawyer's story CHAPTER TWO. What are global models and what have they taught us about the world? Models Computer models Global models What we may have learned so far Another way to think CHAPTER THREE. The cast of characters: an introduction to global models The Forrester/Meadows models The Mesarovic/Pestel model The Bariloche model The MOIRA model The SARU model The FUGI model The United Nations global model How global models differ and why How many worlds are there 7 CHAPTER FOUR. The actors have their say: the questionnaire responses by the global modellers The questionnaire The Forrester Meadows models The Mesarovic/Pestel model (contents continued on back flap) Groping in the dark The first decade of global modelling DONELLA MEADOWS JOHN RICHARDSON GERHARTBRUCKMANN JOHN WILEY & SONS Chichester· New York· Brisbane· Toronto· Singapore Copyright © 1982 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. All Rights Reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced by any means, nor transmitted, nor translated into a machine language without the written permission of the publisher. Library ofCongress Cataloging in Publication Data: Meadows, Donella H. Groping in the dark. Includes index. I. Economic history - Mathematical models. I. Richardson, John. II. Bruckmann, Gerhart. III. Title. HC59.M413 330.9 81-14713 ISBN0471100277 AACR2 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data: Groping in the dark. I. Economic history- Mathematical models I. Meadows, Donella II. Richardson, John III. Bruckmann, Gerhart 330.9 HC59 ISBN 0471 100277 Typeset by Photo-Graphics, Yarcombe, Honiton, Devon, England. Printed by J.W. Arrowsmith Limited, Bristol. This Book Is Dedicated to EVERYBODY who is NOT GROPING IN THE DARK A personal introduction This is a message from the editors Donella Meadows John Richardson Gerhart Bruckmann Who want to tell you, in a personal way, About how this book came to be written, How we feel about what it says, How it is organized, And, most important, Why you should take time from Reading other books, working thinking talking sleeping eating loving or whatever To read it. This book began as the official CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS of the Sixth IIASA Symposium on Global Modeling. (For those of you who may not have heard of IIASA, It IS the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. This Institute concerns itself with large-scale problems, and therefore has been interested in global modelling since it was founded in 1972.) It may strike you that Groping in the Dark Does not exactly resemble other CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, Which are VERY VALUABLE BOOKS because they Compile IMPORTANT IDEAS of IMPORTANT PEOPLE Provide a HISTORICAL RECORD of what transpired vii viii Offer DIVERSE PERSPECTIVES on a COMMON PROBLEM Reflect, more or less, the STATE OF THE ART But Unfortunately, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS are also often Disorganized Unfocused Of uneven quality Hastily compiled Somewhat boring, and Unread. And they never have titles like Groping in the Dark. Every editor and author hopes that his or her book will be EXCITING, SIGNIFICANT, DIFFERENT, AND READ BY MILLIONS. This book may not be READ BY MILLIONS But we are pretty sure that it is DIFFERENT And we think that it is EXCITING AND SIGNIFICANT Because it documents the struggle of some of the most interesting people we know to solve some of the most important problems we can think of. (It's not often that you get to listen to very good minds from around the world trying to improve the course of human history And being honest about how hard it is.) We were EXCITED about this Conference before it began, and even more so after it was over So IX We expanded the record of its Proceedings to make it accessible to a wider audience than just those who were there. There are three kinds of people in this wider audience: AUDIENCE # I. Those who make computer models of complex social systems. (The Conference participants and their colleagues) AUDIENCE # 2. Those who are formally responsible for making complex social systems work. (The decision makers and policy formulators we hear so much about) AUDIENCE # 3. Those who live in and care about the complex social systems that the modellers model and the decision makers decide about. In the case of global models, Audience # 3 consists of everyone. We thought a long time about how to make this book Meet the needs of three different audiences and at the same time reflect Our own feeling about the special importance of its contents. Finally we remembered a book that was Different from anything we had ever read before. It is called PLATFORM FOR CHANGE and is by Stafford Beer, the British cybernetician and philosopher. (If you haven't read it, you should.) Remembering that book helped us design this one. Like Platform for Change This book is printed On pages of different colors, Each of which means something. x YELLOW PAGES (like this one) are for our personal thoughts, experiences, and reflections. Every author or editor has these, of course, but they are usually filtered out before publication. Too bad, we think. BLUE PAGES are for important conclusions and highlights from the Conference. When we put something on a blue page if means that We think it is important, and a lot of other people think so too. WHITE PAGES are for the actual proceedings of the Conference. That is, what everyone else (including ourselves when we were playing the role of everyone else) said. GOLD PAGES introduce the field of global modelling and its history. They are intended to help many readers, especially Audiences # 2 and # 3, understand better what is written on the yellow, blue, and white pages. This format may make you uncomfortable. If so, you could ignore the yellow, blue, and gold pages, In which case the book will be much like All CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS you have read in the past. Or You could simply go back to Reading other books, working thinking talking etc. We hope you won't, because We believe that the future is going to be quite different from the past, XI that we all need to make decisions quite different from those we have made in the past, that we need to start looking at the world in a new way, and that THIS BOOK IS ABOUT A NEW AND NEEDED WAY OF LOOKING AT THE WORLD On the next page we shall begin by telling you the story that made us decide to entitle this book GROPING IN THE DARK xii A fable from the past There is more Light here Someone saw Nasrudin searching for something on the ground. 'What have you lost, Mulla?' he asked. 'My key,' said the Mulla. So they both went down on their knees and looked for it. After a time the other man asked: 'Where exactly did you drop it?' 'In my own house.' 'Then why are you looking here?' 'There is more light here than inside my own house.' (From The Exploits ofthe Incomparable Mulla Nasrudin by Idries Shah. Copyright © 1972 by Idries Shah. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, E.P. Dutton.) xiii A fable from the very recent past Once upon a time, in the eighth decade of the twentieth century A.D., there was a global modeller by the name of G. He was unhappy. Often at night he lay awake, his eyes open. He was considered a good teacher, capable of communicating complicated ideas to an uninformed or uninterested audience. But, alas, when it came to the concept of global modelling, a subject dear to his heart, he seemed to fail to communicate, over and over again. He was particularly frustrated when he discussed his craft with a colleague by the name of A, who was also a distinguished scholar and proficient modeller. Both G and A observed a strange phenomenon in their discussions. The words each one used obviously belonged to the English language, their syntax was in order, but somehow the sentences seemed to fly past each other without making any contact or conveying any meaning. Finally, after an especially sleepless night, G resolved to try again. He invited A for a long walk in the quiet and beautiful park that adjoined their research institute. Once again G explained to A the interconnected complex of the world's problems, the need to operate with a comprehensive picture rather than a partial one, the difficulty of understanding the situation intuitively, and the urgency of taking some action with imperfect models rather than waiting for better ones that might come too late.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Mediterranean Ecological Footprint Trends Content
    MEDITERRANEAN ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT TRENDS CONTENT Global Footprint Network 1 Global Footprint Network EDITOR Foreword Promotes a sustainable economy by Alessandro Galli advancing the Ecological Footprint, Foreword Plan Blue 2 Scott Mattoon a tool that makes sustainability measureable. Introduction 3 AUTHORS Alessandro Galli The Ecological Footprint 8 Funded by: of World Regions David Moore MAVA Foundation Established in 1994, it is a family-led, Nina Brooks Drivers of Mediterranean Ecological Katsunori Iha Footprint and biocapacity changes 10 Swiss-based philanthropic foundation over time whose mission is to engage in strong Gemma Cranston partnerships to conserve biodiversity Mapping consumption, production 13 for future generations. CONTRIBUTORS AND REVIEWER and trade activities for the Mediterranean Region Jean-Pierre Giraud In collaboration with: Steve Goldfi nger Mediterranean Ecological Footprint 17 WWF Mediterranean Martin Halle of nations Its mission is to build a future in which Pati Poblete people live in harmony with nature. Anders Reed Linking ecological assets and 20 The WWF Mediterranean initiative aims economic competitiveness at conserving the natural wealth of the Mathis Wackernagel Toward sustainable development: 22 Mediterranean and reducing human human welfare and planetary limits footprint on nature for the benefi t of all. DESIGN MaddoxDesign.net National Case Studies 24 UNESCO Venice Conclusions 28 Is developing an educational and ADVISORS training platform on the application Deanna Karapetyan Appendix A 32 of the Ecological Footprint in SEE and Hannes Kunz Calculating the Ecological Footprint Mediterranean countries, using in (Institute for Integrated Economic particular the network of MAB Biosphere Research - www.iier.ch) Appendix B 35 Reserves as special demonstration and The carbon-plus approach learning places.
    [Show full text]
  • Building a Sustainable and Desirable Economy-In-Society- In-Nature
    SCIENCE | ENVIRONMENT State of the World 2013 2013 STATE OF THE WORLD is Is Sustainability Still Possible? SUSTAINABILITY “State of the World 2013 assembles the wisdom and clarity of some of the earth’s finest thinkers, visionaries, and activists into a dazzling array of topics that merge to offer a compellingly lucid and accessible vision of where we are—and what is the wisest and healthiest course for the future.” OF THE WORLD STATE —NINA SIMONS, Cofounder, Bioneers Still Possible? “This edition forges a new path for the State of the World series, and for environmental thinking in general. A pivotal book that marks a defining moment for our species.” — RICHARD HEINBERG, Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute, and author of The End of Growth “State of the World 2013 is a powerful collection of articles, and the vision behind it is impressive. Here is a book that gets beyond ‘sustainababble’ and asks the tough, essential questions. It should make readers more determined than ever to do their part in avoiding planet-wide disaster—and better informed about how to do that.” — PETER SINGER, Professor of Bioethics, Princeton University, and author of Animal Liberation, One World, and The Life You Can Save Sustainability gets plenty of lip service, but the relentless worsening of key environmental trends reveals much of that attention to be “sustainababble.” From climate instability and species extinctions to approaching scarcities of freshwater, minerals, and energy, worrisome limits to human economic activity look more pressing each year—all while our political institutions seem impotent to address the challenge. THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE, in this edition of the celebrated State of the World series, takes an unflinching look at what the data say about the prospects for achieving true sustainability, 2013 what we should be doing now to make progress toward it, and how we might cope if we fail to do so.
    [Show full text]
  • Evaluating the Interconnectedness of the Sustainable Development Goals Based on the Causality Analysis of Sustainability Indicators
    sustainability Article Evaluating the Interconnectedness of the Sustainable Development Goals Based on the Causality Analysis of Sustainability Indicators Gyula Dörg˝o 1,† , Viktor Sebestyén 2,† and János Abonyi 1,* 1 MTA-PE “Lendület” Complex Systems Monitoring Research Group, Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Egyetem u. 10, P.O. Box 158, H-8201 Veszprém, Hungary; [email protected] 2 Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Pannonia, Egyetem u. 10, P.O. Box 158, H-8201 Veszprém, Hungary; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] † These authors contributed equally to this work. Received: 20 June 2018; Accepted: 15 October 2018; Published: 18 October 2018 Abstract: Policymaking requires an in-depth understanding of the cause-and-effect relationships between the sustainable development goals. However, due to the complex nature of socio-economic and environmental systems, this is still a challenging task. In the present article, the interconnectedness of the United Nations (UN) sustainability goals is measured using the Granger causality analysis of their indicators. The applicability of the causality analysis is validated through the predictions of the World3 model. The causal relationships are represented as a network of sustainability indicators providing the opportunity for the application of network analysis techniques. Based on the analysis of 801 UN indicator types in 283 geographical regions, approximately 4000 causal relationships were identified and the most important global connections were represented in a causal loop network. The results highlight the drastic deficiency of the analysed datasets, the strong interconnectedness of the sustainability targets and the applicability of the extracted causal loop network.
    [Show full text]
  • The Origins and Impact of Environmental Conflict Ideas
    STRATEGIC SCARCITY: THE ORIGINS AND IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICT IDEAS Elizabeth Hartmann Development Studies Institute London School of Economics and Political Science Submitted for the degree of PhD 2002 1 UMI Number: U615457 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615457 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 rM£ S£S F 20 ABSTRACT Strategic Scarcity: The Origins and Impact of Environmental Conflict Ideas Elizabeth Hartmann This thesis examines the origins and impact of environmental conflict ideas. It focuses on the work of Canadian political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon, whose model of environmental conflict achieved considerable prominence in U.S. foreign policy circles in the 1990s. The thesis argues that this success was due in part to widely shared neo-Malthusian assumptions about the Third World, and to the support of private foundations and policymakers with a strategic interest in promoting these views. It analyzes how population control became an important feature of American foreign policy and environmentalism in the post-World War Two period. It then describes the role of the "degradation narrative" — the belief that population pressures and poverty precipitate environmental degradation, migration, and violent conflict — in the development of the environment and security field.
    [Show full text]
  • Professlonal Engllsh Medlcl NE and Dlagnostlcs Навчальний Посiбник
    MlHlcTEPcTBo освIти l нАуки укрА[ни Нацiональний авiацiйний унiверситет О. Г, Шостак, В. l, Базова PRoFESSloNAL ENGLlSH MEDlcl NE AND DlAGNoSTlcS навчальний посiбник КиТв 2015 ь- Еи_ встуII KypciB напря- Навча-гьrшай посiбrrик уrшадеrпш1 дIя студенть I_tv прог- му пi.щоmвки 6.051402 <Бiомедична iюrсенерЙ>, Назчальними (за професiйним. спряму- рамами мсциIIJIIни <<Iноземна мова i*.о*tо передбачено вивчення студеЕтами напряму <<Бiомедrтчtrа 1 ха- irженерiш десяти модулiв, що визначае струкгуру посlоника !а- Принципи побудови ракгер виIOтадеш{я навчаJIьного MaTepia,Try, посiбьм виповiдають також формаry Програми з англiйськоi курсу ESP l{о"" дrr" студекгiв немовних спецiа:ьностей, завданням та вимогам Болонського процесу. основна мета нrrвч€lJl"rrоrо посiбrпш<а - н2IвIIити майбугrriх фа- xl хьцьзбiомедщчноiiяженерiiосноВzl}\,IпрофесiйногоспiлкУвапня аrглйською мовою. Автори також ставиJIи перед собою завдання перекJlад/, рзвинути у оryдеrггЬ cTiйKi н{lвички читанЕя, реферу- в"r"{Я технiчноi лiтератури з метою oтриманIUI 1 використання rе- необхiдrоi дlя професiftrоi дiяльностi iнформачii,-ПосiбrшшС 0го можIIивlсть прове- умiшryе тексти дIя щrгff*щ що дае hiB навчаJъноrо деннЯ дисrсусЙ та максиIшаjБного заJýленrrя сryдекrЬ до завданrш з W2 процесу. Система вправ дозвоJuIс вимадачевi обиратлл ура- й**;" iнд.вiдrЙrло< здiбноСrей сryдеrrГiв (нагп,rсаШ11 Рефератiв, Ыш*ч* доповЙей викоIlrlнtlf рiзноманiпшо< коruунiмцiйшпоi вправ). TBopd шдл rив,m-Гьноiдiяльносгi, що гр5пrrуIorься ImypиBI@( з I*rJ,KoBo- ,"йrrrr* д""рел, пi,щrлrцrють моrшацiю сryдеrrгiв, а змiстовi iндшi- peaJБHolvfy жшггi ryашнi завдаш{я допомагitють розв!шrуш необхiдli В KoMyHiKжlrBHi навlrчr<и та здатнiсть до са},Iовираження, У посiбlшку викIIадено основи грitматики англйськоi мови. Слов- нrшс TepMiHiB до кожного роздiлу дOпомагае краще оволодiтк jIексичним матерiалом та дае змOry Еоповнити словниковии запас, засвоенtrя лексичного та rраматиqного матерiалу допоможе сту- сЕряму- деrrговi орiсrrryватиоя в zlнгломовнiй лiтераryрi фахового кIHIUI, брати участь у мiхсrародншr конфереrщiях, MODULE 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Ecological Footprint
    ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT HK 2019 CONTENTS MESSAGE FROM THE 02 ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DIRECTOR OF CONSERVATION 04 GLOBAL TREND If everyone led the lifestyle of Hong Kongers, 4.2 Earths would be required to fulfil our resource needs, a significant increase from the 2016 figure of 3.9 Earths. Hong Kong’s 06 HONG KONG TREND Ecological Footprint is the second worst per-capita in the Asia-Pacific region and tenth worst globally. 08 PRODUCTIVE LAND & SEA Half of the Hong Kong’s Ecological Footprint comes from food (21%), clothing (15%), personal transportation (8%), and electricity (7%). 10 FOOD 21% Since the 1970s, Hong Kong’s economy has seen an average of 8.9% growth of GDP in real 12 CLOTHING 15% terms annually. Its Ecological Footprint recorded an annual 5% growth till the mid-90s. During the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and 1998, both GDP and Ecological Footprint 14 CASE STUDIES dropped. As GDP dropped so did our strain on natural resources. Consistent trends of GDP and Ecological Footprint were seen during the SARS outbreak in 16 CHANGE THE WAY WE LIVE 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. Since 2009, the economy started to recover, and the Ecological Footprint has worsened ever since. With the continual growth of our GDP, our Ecological Footprint may continue to increase if we adopt a business-as- usual approach. A shift in our daily habits, coupled with support from business and government, can help to stem the runaway consumption that is impacting the habitats and natural resources we depend on.
    [Show full text]
  • A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: the 30-Year Update
    do nellameado ws.o rg http://www.donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/ A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update By Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows Chelsea Green (United States & Canada) Earthscan (United Kingdom and Commonwealth) Diamond, Inc (Japan) Kossoth Publishing Company (Hungary) A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update The signs are everywhere around us: Sea level has risen 10–20 cm since 1900. Most non-polar glaciers are retreating, and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer. In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had to live on incomes averaging $2 a day or less. Meanwhile, the richest one- f if th of the world’s population has 85 percent of the global GNP. And the gap between rich and poor is widening. In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimated that 75 percent of the world’s oceanic f isheries were f ished at or beyond capacity. The North Atlantic cod f ishery, f ished sustainably f or hundreds of years, has collapsed, and the species may have been pushed to biological extinction. The f irst global assessment of soil loss, based on studies of hundreds of experts, f ound that 38 percent, or nearly 1.4 billion acres, of currently used agricultural land has been degraded. Fif ty-f our nations experienced declines in per capita GDP f or more than a decade during the period 1990–2001. These are symptoms of a world in overshoot, where we are drawing on the world’s resources f aster than they can be restored, and we are releasing wastes and pollutants f aster than the Earth can absorb them or render them harmless.
    [Show full text]
  • Investigations Into the Club of Rome's World3 Model : Lessons for Understanding Complicated Models
    Investigations into the Club of Rome's World3 model : lessons for understanding complicated models Citation for published version (APA): Thissen, W. A. H. (1978). Investigations into the Club of Rome's World3 model : lessons for understanding complicated models. Technische Hogeschool Eindhoven. https://doi.org/10.6100/IR79372 DOI: 10.6100/IR79372 Document status and date: Published: 01/01/1978 Document Version: Publisher’s PDF, also known as Version of Record (includes final page, issue and volume numbers) Please check the document version of this publication: • A submitted manuscript is the version of the article upon submission and before peer-review. There can be important differences between the submitted version and the official published version of record. People interested in the research are advised to contact the author for the final version of the publication, or visit the DOI to the publisher's website. • The final author version and the galley proof are versions of the publication after peer review. • The final published version features the final layout of the paper including the volume, issue and page numbers. Link to publication General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.
    [Show full text]
  • Solving the Human Predicament
    InteRnational Journal of Environmental STudieS, Vol. 69, No.4, August 2012, 557-565 Solving the human predicament PAUL R. EHRLICH* AND ANNE H. EHRLICH Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA The authors offer an ecological frame of reference for political action to change the economic and social trends now deepening the human predicament: overpopulation and continuing population growth, overconsumption by rich societies, resource depletion, environmental degradation, and inequitable distribution of wealth within and between societies. Certain points often overlooked include: the demographic contribution to environmental deterioration; climate disruption, global toxification, and a decay of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and economic growth of the rich, which hurts everyone in the long term. Perpetual economic growth is biophysically impossible; the culture gap impedes solutions; and all the factors are intertwined. Potential solutions include: empowering women and providing family planning services to all sexually active people; reducing overconsumption and helping the poor; overhauling education systems, including universities; adapting to changes that are inevitable; and improving food production and distribution systems. Hope comes from growing worldwide grassroots movements. KeYwords: Overpopulation; Excess consumption; Environmental deterioration; Economic growth; Culture gap; Empowerment of women Introduction Civilisation has reached a scale at which it has begun to influence dramatically the cru-
    [Show full text]
  • The Limits to Growth: the 30-Year Update
    Donella Meadows Jorgen Randers Dennis Meadows Chelsea Green (United States & Canada) Earthscan (United Kingdom and Commonwealth) Diamond, Inc (Japan) Kossoth Publishing Company (Hungary) Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update By Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows Available in both cloth and paperback editions at bookstores everywhere or from the publisher by visiting www.chelseagreen.com, or by calling Chelsea Green. Hardcover • $35.00 • ISBN 1–931498–19–9 Paperback • $22.50 • ISBN 1–931498–58–X Charts • graphs • bibliography • index • 6 x 9 • 368 pages Chelsea Green Publishing Company, White River Junction, VT Tel. 1/800–639–4099. Website www.chelseagreen.com Funding for this Synopsis provided by Jay Harris from his Changing Horizons Fund at the Rockefeller Family Fund. Additional copies of this Synopsis may be purchased by contacting Diana Wright at the Sustainability Institute, 3 Linden Road, Hartland, Vermont, 05048. Tel. 802/436–1277. Website http://sustainer.org/limits/ The Sustainability Institute has created a learning environment on growth, limits and overshoot. Visit their website, above, to follow the emerging evidence that we, as a global society, have overshot physcially sustainable limits. World3–03 CD-ROM (2004) available by calling 800/639–4099. This disk is intended for serious students of the book, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (2004). It permits users to reproduce and examine the details of the 10 scenarios published in the book. The CD can be run on most Macintosh and PC operating systems. With it you will be able to: • Reproduce the three graphs for each of the scenarios as they appear in the book.
    [Show full text]
  • Overconsumption and Sustainability (Sample Essay
    The following are general comments about the structure and contents of an academic essay written for university – they are not prescriptive and intended as an educational guide only. Assignment 1- Essay Date of Assignment Q: Discuss the idea that ‘overconsumption in both developed and developing nations’ is a serious threat to true sustainability’. Commented [A1]: There is no need to write the question at the top of your assignment. This is just for information purposes only. Your introduction should paraphrase the question, so that the reader understands. It can be said that a growing trend of overconsumption, particularly in Western industrialised nations, is rising considerably. This phenomenon extends to a wide range of goods and products Commented [A2]: The essay starts with some background information to set the scene and orientate the reader. which at one time were built to be repaired and reused, but now deemed too expensive to do so, are simply tossed aside to make way for a brand-new version of themselves. Additionally, it can be said that in particular developed nations, individuals consume and purchase far too many products Commented [A3]: The introduction is also the perfect place to restate the question-so that the reader knows what it is you’ll be which are all too quickly consumed and not reused, repaired or recycled; and after their usefulness discussing –see comment A1 above. has passed are simply discarded or sent to landfill refuse sites. The overconsumption of goods and products therefore is seen as a true threat to achieving sustainability in the 21st century and will continue to be ever more problematic until action is taken to curb this trend.
    [Show full text]
  • Critiques of Malthusian Population Trap (A Perspective of Islamic Economics) Faishol Luthfi1, Bagus Pratama Susanto1, and Tika Widiastuti2
    2nd ICIEBP The 2nd International Conference on Islamic Economics, Business, and Philanthropy (ICIEBP) Theme: “Sustainability and Socio Economic Growth” Volume 2019 Conference Paper Critiques of Malthusian Population Trap (A Perspective of Islamic Economics) Faishol Luthfi1, Bagus Pratama Susanto1, and Tika Widiastuti2 1Post-Graduate Program Student of Islamic Economics Science Major, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia 2Lecturer of Post-Graduate Program of Islamic Economics Science Major, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia Abstract An essay of a pastor and political economics expert Thomas Robert Malthus in 1978 concerning the population principles explained that the rate of population growth was measured by geometrical progression (1,2,4,8, and so on) while the rate of food production growth was measured by arithmetic progression(1,2,3,4, and so on). The essay implied, that there will be a situation where the amount of food or resources will not be sufficient to meet the human needs. Another effect is poverty which will obstruct Corresponding Author: the economic development. Islamic economics contradicts the theory of Malthusian Faishol Luthfi Population Trap and views population growth as something suggested. [email protected] Keywords: Malthus, the study of population, Islamic economics Received: 10 February 2019 Accepted: 14 March 2019 Published: 28 March 2019 Publishing services provided by Knowledge E Faishol Luthfi et al. This article 1. Introduction is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Malthus is an expert who is well known on his expertise in population matters. Within Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and discussions of economic theory and population his name is almost always involves redistribution provided that the wether in those who revise his theories, criticize it, and even some debunk it.
    [Show full text]