NO PUPPET: REX TILLERSON AS

Dougal Robinson January 2017

ALLIANCE BRIEF

Rex Tillerson will approach foreign policy very differently to US President . While Trump’s guiding principle is ‘’, Tillerson espouses an assertive vision of US global leadership. Unlike Trump, Tillerson believes NATO is indispensable, champions the benefits of US alliances, wants the United States to push back against Russian expansionism in Crimea, and does not oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The incoming secretary of state has the foreign policy views of a traditional Republican; he is certainly not ‘Trump-lite’.

Yet Tillerson will enter office with “tremendous Tillerson was initially an outside prospect for the role, respect” from the incoming President.1 Trump has recommended to Trump by former Secretary of Defense described the former ExxonMobil CEO as a “world and secretaries of state Condeleeza Rice class player”, in a different “league” to other candidates and .5 Tillerson impressed Trump during for secretary of state.2 But Tillerson does not have a their interview and was then backed for the role by long relationship with Trump — the two men first met Trump advisers Stephen Bannon and . He last December — so he will need to adjust quickly from follows in the footsteps of senior corporate executives business to government, and secure visible ‘wins’ who have run State or Defense, including George or risk being isolated by the president.3 Tillerson’s Schultz, Casper Weinberger, Bob McNamara and Dick proximity to the president, coupled with his success Cheney. However, each of those had significant prior or otherwise in administration debates, will shape the experience in government or the military, as did the last extent to which the Trump Administration hews to an four secretaries of state: , , undiluted America First foreign policy. Condeleeza Rice and .

Although Tillerson might find this transition difficult, his Oil man to diplomat reputation as a business leader and performance under intense questioning from the Senate Foreign Relations Tillerson faces a steep learning curve as he transitions Committee indicates that he has the temperament and from oil man to diplomat. He has demonstrated many of intellect to be a successful secretary of state. the skills required by a secretary of state — mastering complex political briefs and making strategic decisions leading a $US370 billion company with operations in Foreign policy views over 50 countries.4 Yet Tillerson will need to adjust to the even more complex world of international Tillerson sounded like an establishment Republican diplomacy. during his confirmation hearing. He championed the UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE NO PUPPET: REX TILLERSON AS SECRETARY OF STATE

benefits of US alliances and advocated forward-leaning with a preference for a specific region. The contrast US engagement in the Middle East, Europe and Asia. between the first and second Obama Administrations, with secretaries of state Clinton and Kerry, is instructive Although he acknowledged ’s value as a partner in in this regard. Whereas Clinton dedicated significant his opening statement, Tillerson talked tough on China, time and energy to the pivot/rebalance to Asia, Kerry’s equating China’s island-building in the South China Sea personal interest in and focus on Middle East issues with ’s annexation of Crimea. He criticised the created a perception of reduced diplomatic attention to Obama Administration for its “failure of a response” in Asia. the South China Sea that has allowed China to “keep pushing the envelope”, and said “we’re going to have President Trump is unlikely to charge Tillerson to send China a clear signal that first, the island-building with personal responsibility for the war with ISIS stops, and second, your access to those islands is not or restarting peace talks between Israel and the going to be allowed”.6 Moreover, Tillerson stated that Palestinian Authority. Those tasks have been delegated the United States could not continue to accept “empty to Secretary of Defense Mattis and Trump’s son-in-law promises” China had made about putting pressure on Jared Kushner, respectively, leaving Tillerson freer to over that country’s nuclear and missile focus on Russia and Asia. President Trump may deploy programs.7 These comments should not necessarily be Tillerson to negotiate with Russian President Putin taken literally — Tillerson may have misspoken when due to their long relationship. Trump may also view he called for the United States to blockade China’s a businessman turned secretary of state as the right access to man-made islands in the South China Sea cabinet official to lead the administration’s relationship — but they indicate a preference for a tougher stance with China. In all diplomatic engagement, Tillerson is towards Beijing. unlikely to focus on human rights to the same extent as his predecessors; he refused to condemn and the Philippines for human rights abuses.10

Tillerson stated that the United States could not continue to Tillerson and Trump accept “empty promises” China had Although the secretary of state is often regarded as the made about putting pressure on second most important position in the US government, North Korea over that country’s the effectiveness of different secretaries has depended on their relationship with the president and relative nuclear and missile programs. power cabinet. Hillary Clinton was a strong voice in the first Obama Administration, Colin Powell however was frequently overshadowed by Secretary of Defense Tillerson’s approach on most other issues came from Rumsfeld in the first George W. Bush Administration. the Republican playbook. His opening statement Tillerson will probably find an ally in Secretary of labelled ISIS a “grave risk” to the United States.8 He Defense Mattis, who shares many of his broad foreign said that Russia “today poses a danger”, “violated the policy views. A formidable operator, Tillerson will need laws of war”, and called for a “proportional show of more than one ally if he is to avoid costly inter-agency force” to demonstrate strength in the face of Putin’s turf wars, reconcile some significant policy differences expansionism.9 However, Tillerson faced tough with the president, maintain a strong relationship with questioning from Senator over his long the , and shape the Trump Administration’s history of business dealings in Russia — including his foreign policy. relationship with and his acceptance of the Russian ‘Order of Friendship’ in 2013 — and A clear gap exists between Trump’s ‘America First’ will likely be subject to considerable criticism from platform and Tillerson’s recitation of many of the core Republicans if he is perceived to be too friendly towards tenets of Republican foreign policy orthodoxy. At a Putin’s Russia. minimum, Tillerson’s preparedness to disagree with Trump during his confirmation hearing indicates that Unlike most incoming secretaries of state there is little he will be unafraid to have substantive private policy indication that Tillerson will arrive at Foggy Bottom debates with the president.

2 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE NO PUPPET: REX TILLERSON AS SECRETARY OF STATE

In his prepared opening statement to the committee, Implications for Australia Tillerson pledged that the Trump Administration would maintain America’s “indispensable” role in the world, Australia is well placed to engage with Secretary providing “moral leadership” to promote stability, of State Tillerson. He is attuned to Australia, having increase prosperity and advance liberty.11 These sorts overseen major ExxonMobil projects in Australia and of phrases are not remarkable on their own, but they Papua New Guinea, visited Australia for business,15 are significant in the context of President Trump’s and was honoured at a 2012 American Australian nationalist impulses and rejection of the US foreign Association benefit dinner.16 policy establishment. Australian officials will be reassured by Tillerson’s Under questioning from senators, Tillerson distanced approach to Asia, because it accords with Australia’s himself from Trump’s pronouncements on a range national interests. Tillerson values US alliances, of important Asia issues. Asked if he “agreed with opposes Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear President-elect Trump that it wouldn’t be a bad thing if weapons, and wants to reassure US allies and partners countries like Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia had in Southeast Asia. Canberra will welcome this approach 12 nuclear weapons?” Tillerson replied “I do not agree”. and hope that President Trump can be persuaded to He said the United States must do more to “show back- move in Tillerson’s direction on Asia policy. up in the region with our traditional allies in Southeast Asia” that were threatened by Chinese activities in the The same cannot be said for China policy. President South China Sea.13 Tillerson emphatically said “I do not Trump is assembling the most anti-Chinese oppose TPP”, but questioned whether the deal served administration in recent memory and Tillerson’s “all of America’s interests”.14 Additionally, Tillerson comments are a further indication that strategic endorsed a “full review” of the Iranian nuclear deal, did competition between Washington and Beijing is set not support a ban on Muslim immigration and called to rise. Against this backdrop, Canberra will likely find for the United States to push back against Russian it increasingly difficult to maintain the established expansionism in Crimea. Australian foreign policy mantra of an ‘ally in Washington’ and a ‘friend in Beijing’. Domestic debate on the alliance may sharpen.

We can expect Tillerson to push for the Australia is nonetheless well placed to try to shape Trump Administration to balance Chinese Tillerson’s thinking on China. Although Tillerson had deep engagement with political leaders across assertiveness in Asia by supporting the world during his career as an oil executive, he is allies and partners, as well as deepening relatively unknown in China.17 He will therefore need US economic integration in the region. to build relationships quickly with his counterparts in Beijing, and will likely be open to Australian counsel on his emerging approach to China.

Taken together, these comments reveal that Tillerson Tillerson left ExxonMobil less than a month ago, so his clearly believes in the value of US allies and partners to foreign policy views are still evolving. We do not have a US strategy in Asia. His stance on the TPP demonstrates good sense of who Tillerson listens to on foreign policy, that he sees some economic and strategic value to an other than Center for Strategic and International Studies agreement that Trump has now abandoned. We can (CSIS) President and former Clinton Administration therefore expect Secretary of State Tillerson to push Deputy Secretary of Defense .18 Moreover, for the Trump Administration to balance Chinese we do not know who will be the deputy secretary of assertiveness in Asia by supporting allies and partners, state. as well as deepening US economic integration in the region. But it will nonetheless be difficult for Tillerson What is clear, however, is that Tillerson believes the to persuade President Trump to abandon campaign United States should play an active and assertive comments or adopt positions that do not accord with leadership role in global affairs, and he will not hesitate his worldview. to disagree with President Trump.

3 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE NO PUPPET: REX TILLERSON AS SECRETARY OF STATE

Endnotes

1. Rebecca Savransky, “Trump: Tillerson ‘a 10. Stephen Collinson, “Rubio, Tillerson critics clash world class player and dealmaker’”, The with nominee over human rights”, CNN, 12 Hill, 11 December 2016: http://thehill.com/ January 2017: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/11/ homenews/administration/309879-trump- politics/marco-rubio-rex-tillerson-human-rights/ tillerson-a-world-class-player-and-dealmaker 11. Tillerson, “Senate Confirmation 2. Ibid, and Michael D. Shear and Maggie Haberman, Hearing Opening Statement”. “Rex Tillerson, C.E.O., Chosen as 12. Associated Press, “Tillerson differs with Trump on Secretary of State”, 12 December 2016: https:// Japan, S Korea having nuclear capability”, Japan www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/us/politics/ Today, 12 January 2017: https://www.japantoday. rex-tillerson-secretary-of-state-trump.html com/category/politics/view/tillerson-differs-with- 3. Senator , Chairman of the Senate trump-on-japan-s-korea-having-nuclear-capability Committee on Foreign Relations, told his 13. Brunnstrom and Spetalnick, “Tillerson says China committee that “Mr Tillerson… had never should be barred from South China Sea islands”. met Mr Trump… until a month ago”, Bob 14. Nicole Gaouette, “Tillerson fails to win Corker, “Corker: The world’s at its best when over key GOP senators”, CNN, 12 January American leads” (Opening remarks introducing 2017: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/11/ Rex Tillerson at his nomination hearing), 11 politics/tillerson-confirmation-hearing/ January 2017: https://www.corker.senate.gov/ 15. Tillerson has visited Australia to check in on Exxon’s public/index.cfm/news-list?ID=48B377C6- Bass Strait joint venture BHP Billiton situated south B828-4F0E-9992-76A193C270F8 of Victoria, and the $US54 billion Gorgon liquefied 4. Ellen R. Wald, “8 Reasons Exxon’s Rex Tillerson natural gas project off the north-west coast of Could Succeed As Secretary Of State”, Forbes, Western Australia in which Exxon has a 25 per 10 December 2016: https://www.corker.senate. cent stake in partnership with Chevron and Shell. gov/public/index.cfm/news-list?ID=48B377C6- John Kehoe, “Rex Tillerson is Donald Trump’s B828-4F0E-9992-76A193C270F8 big business bet for the new administration”, 5. Theodore Schleifer, Elise Labott and Gregory Australian Financial Review, 16 December 2016: Krieg, “GOP heavyweights with ties to Exxon http://www.afr.com/leadership/rex-tillerson-is- pushed Tillerson”, CNN, 13 December 2016: donald-trumps-big-business-bet-for-the-new- http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/13/politics/ administration-20161215-gtc6ce#ixzz4VzH561lu rex-tillerson-robert-gates-condoleezza-rice/ 16. http://www.americanaustralian. 6. Tillerson’s approach to the South China Sea org/?page=PreviousBD dispute may be shaped by his experience at 17. The Wall St Journal reports that “In China… ExxonMobil. In 2009 he was involved in a deal [Tillerson’s] contact with government leaders with the Vietnamese government that involved has been limited to building a large refinery and drilling for more than 13 million acres of natural petrochemical facility in Fujian province”. Justin gas in areas of ’s exclusive economic Scheck, James Marson and Damien Paletta, zone that overlap with China’s nine-dash line. “Global Deals That Made Exxon’s CEO Now Quotes are from David Brunnstrom and Matt Pose Big Test”, Wall St Journal, 13 December Spetalnick, “Tillerson says China should be barred 2016: http://www.wsj.com/articles/deals-with- from South China Sea islands”, , 12 vladimir-putin-helped-fuel-rise-of-secretary- January 2017: http://www.reuters.com/article/ of-state-nominee-rex-tillerson-1481626925 us-congress-tillerson-china-idUSKBN14V2KZ 18. Tillerson has served on the board of trustees 7. Ibid. of Washington think tank CSIS. Hamre claims 8. Rex Tillerson, “Senate Confirmation Hearing to have spent over 100 hours speaking with Opening Statement”, 11 January 2017: Tillerson in the last decade. Blake Hounshell, http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/ “Rex Tillerson’s 3.a.m. Phone Call”, 14 December doc/011117_Tillerson_Opening_Statement.pdf 2016: http://www.politico.eu/article/rex- 9. Ibid. tillersons-3-a-m-phone-call-yemen-china/

4 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE NO PUPPET: REX TILLERSON AS SECRETARY OF STATE

About the author

Dougal Robinson

Dougal Robinson is a Research Fellow in the Alliance 21 Program at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. His primary focus is the relationship between the Trump Administration and Congress and its implications for Australia.

Dougal was previously at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, where he worked on Australia’s bilateral relationship with both the United States and China. Previously, he was a tutor in US politics and foreign policy at the University of Sydney, an intern and project research assistant in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, and completed a non- partisan placement on the foreign policy staff of Senator Marco Rubio as an American Australian Association-Australian National University Congressional Research Fellow.

Dougal holds a First Class Honours degree in Government and International Relations from the University of Sydney.

Cover photo: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson at his Senate confirmation hearing (Office of the President-elect/greatagain.gov)

This report may be cited as: Dougal Robinson, “No puppet: Rex Tillerson as secretary of state,” United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, January 2017.

5 The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney deepens Australia’s understanding of the United States through research, teaching and public engagement. Through rigorous analysis of American politics, foreign policy, economics, culture, and history, the Centre has become a national resource, building Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping American society — and critically — their implications for Australia.

The Centre’s Alliance 21 Program is a multi-year research initiative that examines the historically strong Australia- United States relationship and works to address the challenges and opportunities ahead as the alliance evolves in a changing Asia. The Australian Government and corporate partners Boral, Dow, News Corp Australia, and Northrop Grumman Australia support the program’s second phase, which commenced in July 2015 and is focused on the following core research areas: defence and security; resource sustainability; alliance systems in Asia; and trade, investment, and business innovation.

The Alliance 21 Program receives funding support from the following partners. Research conclusions are derived independently and authors represent their own view not those of the United States Studies Centre.

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