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Metro Manila Office Briefing 2Q 2018 Metro Manila | Office Briefing

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Metro Manila Office Briefing 2Q 2018 Metro Manila | Office Briefing KMC MAGKMC Group Savills Research Research Metro Manila Metro Manila Office Briefing 2Q 2018 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Metro Manila Office Submarkets Future Stock (2021) DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2018-2021) CURRENT STOCK MAP 1 784,898 sq m 370,628 sq m QUEZON CITY C5 CORRIDOR 1,006,102 sq m 373,521 sq m ORTIGAS CENTER MAKATI FRINGE 459,652 sq m GREATER ORTIGAS 1,320,469 sq m MAKATI CBD NAIA 2,024,601 sq m BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 953,851 sq m BAY AREA 400,860 sq m MCKINLEY METRO MANILA CITIES QUEZON CITY SAN JUAN CITY CITY OF MANILA MANDALUYONG CITY 599,206 sq m MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY ALABANG PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY LAS PIÑAS CITY 2 2Q 2018 Metro Manila GRAPH 1 ■ The overall vacancy rate in Metro Manila dropped Stock & Vacancy to 3.0% in 2Q/2018 from the previous quarter’s 3.8%. Net absorption of around 198,200 sq Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Stock m outpaced the 164,300 sq m of new office Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Vacancy Rate 7,000 14% completions during the same quarter. Quezon City was able to significantly reduce its vacancies 6,000 12% to 8.0% of its current stock due to the recovery 5,000 10% of certain outliers in the submarket. 4,000 8% ■ As such, the tight market conditions have caused rental growth to accelerate by 4.4% YoY '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 3,000 6% during the quarter. Much of the acceleration was 2,000 4% observed in the Bay Area where it experienced rental growth of 11.5% YoY during 2Q/2018. 1,000 2% Alabang also had above average growth of 5.0% 0 0% YoY as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F (POGO) tenants settle into the fledgling CBD. Source: KMC Savills Research ■ In the first half of 2018, as much as 294,300 sq GRAPH 2 m of GLA was introduced in the market. So far, Supply & Take-Up robust occupier demand has been sustained and has kept vacancy rates low in most submarkets. Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Supply However, the second half of the year is expected Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Take-Up 1,000 to bring 581,900 sq m of new Grade A office space into the Metro Manila market. Based 800 on the historical trend of office completions, the incoming new supply is still significantly challenging. 600 The POGO sector has taken a foothold in certain '000 sq (GLA) '000 m ■ 400 submarkets, such as Alabang and the Makati Fringe. However, the offshore and outsourcing 200 (O&O) market has been resilient in the Bay Area despite the dominance of the POGO sector. With 0 the impressive performance of both sectors in 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2Q/2018, we have revised our 2018 year-end vacancy rate forecast downwards to 6.7%. Source: KMC Savills Research TABLE 1 BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY Key Figures - Grade A Office 2Q 2018 Makati Ortigas BGC Alabang Quezon City Bay Area CBD Center Average net rental rate 1,084.4 952.1 679.6 662.3 753.2 795.0 (Php/sq m/month) Upper net rental rate 1,550.0 1,250.0 850.0 725.0 825.0 850.0 (Php/sq m/month) Vacancy rate (%) 2.3% 3.3% 2.5% 0.8% 8.0% 0.9% Current stock (sq m) 1,101,074 1,615,250 558,513 440,195 543,427 653,310 Development pipeline 219,395 409,351 447,589 159,010 241,471 300,541 2018-2021 (sq m) * Makati CBD includes Premium Offices kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Makati CBD GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Supply Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Take-Up 1,400 14% 100 1,200 12% 80 1,000 10% 60 800 8% 40 600 6% '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 20 400 4% 0 200 2% 0 0% -20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 5 GRAPH 6 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index 120 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 100 140 20% 120 10% 80 100 0% 60 '000 sq (GLA) m 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 80 -10% 40 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ In the last few months, market absorption has been relatively slow for certain key buildings in the premium business district. Coupled with the increasing number of contract expirations, the vacancy rate increased to 2.3% in 2Q/2018 from 2.1% in the previous quarter. ■ Despite the increase in vacancies, rents in Makati CBD rose by an impressive 4.5% YoY, closing the quarter at Php 1,084.4 per sq m / month. ■ In the second half of 2018, the premier CBD is expected to welcome around 53,000 sq m of new office space from the first tower of the Ayala North Exchange and NEX Tower. Vacancies are expected to rise during the next quarters and may hamper rental growth in 2019. 4 2Q 2018 Bonifacio Global City GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-Up 2,400 12% 400 2,000 10% 300 1,600 8% 1,200 6% 200 '000 sq (GLA) m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 800 4% 100 400 2% 0 0% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 9 GRAPH 10 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index 400 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 300 120 10% 100 0% 200 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 = 2007 3Q 100 80 -10% 100 60 -20% 40 -30% 0 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Despite the additional 60,000 sq m increase to BGC’s Grade A office stock, the vacancy rate declined to 3.3% in 2Q/2018. ■ With the tightening market conditions, the average rental rate grew by a quicker pace at 4.4% YoY to Php 952.1 per sq m / month. ■ We are expecting vacancies to rise in the next 12 months due to the 272,000 sq m of new supply. We still estimate market absorption to continue during this period as demand for BGC offices is sustained. Rental growth may further accelerate as the vacancy rate is estimated to remain low in single digits. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Ortigas Center GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-Up 1,000 15% 300 250 800 12% 200 600 9% 150 100 '000 sq (GLA) m 400 6% '000 sq (GLA) m 50 200 3% 0 0 0% -50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 13 GRAPH 14 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index 300 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 120 10% 200 100 0% '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 3Q 2007 = 2007 3Q 100 80 -10% 100 60 -20% 40 -30% 0 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Vacancies continued to decrease to 2.5% of office stock in 2Q/2018 from 3.4% last quarter as there were no new completions during the quarter. On the other hand, Robinsons Cyberscape Gamma is anticipated to be completed by the next quarter and will add around 43,300 sq m of new office supply. ■ Rental growth recovered to 3.2% YoY in 2Q/2018 from 1.9% YoY the previous quarter. However, the recovery was still below expectations given the very tight conditions in the submarket. ■ The vacancy rate is forecasted to remain low in 2018 as pre-leasing for Cyberscape Gamma was reportedly to be brisk earlier this year. We may see some improvement in rental growth as well with the growing number of new Grade A offices. In the coming 12 months, The Podium West Tower, Jollibee Tower, and GLAS Tower are expected to improve the overall quality of office stock in the submarket and push up rentals that have been trailing behind the premier submarkets of Makati CBD and BGC. 6 2Q 2018 Alabang GRAPH 15 GRAPH 16 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Alabang Grade A Office Stock Alabang Grade A Office Supply Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Alabang Grade A Office Take-Up 600 18% 100 500 15% 80 400 12% 60 300 9% '000 sq (GLA) '000 m '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 40 200 6% 20 100 3% 0 0% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 17 GRAPH 18 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Alabang Rental Growth, YoY Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index 100 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160 30% 140 20% 80 120 10% 60 100 0% 3Q 2007 =3Q 100 '000 sq (GLA) '000 m 40 80 -10% 60 -20% 20 40 -30% 0 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ The additional 38,900 sq m from Filinvest Axis Tower 1 barely made a dent in Alabang as the vacancy rate remained low at a very tight 0.8% of total stock.
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