THE TIMES OF INDIA, NEW DELHI 00 TIMES EVOKE SATURDAY, JANUARY 4, 2020 When we damage Earth, ‘US should help we damage ourselves India leapfrog to Climate change is the world’s worst clean energy’ existential crisis. To fi ght it, we There is a link between the environment, our economic well-being must evoke our better selves Scientist Michael E. Mann, director of the and our children’s future. Our actions are breaking this link University of Pennsylvania’s Earth System n his thought-provoking blog, ‘Wait But Science Center, was a lead contributor to the Why’, Tim Urban postulates that all hu- David Attenborough & Christine Lagarde 2001 IPCC Climate Change Report, which won Imans carry a Primitive Mind and a the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Speaking to Higher Mind within themselves. The Prim- n nature, everything is connect- itive Mind is the ancient animal software ed. This is equally true of a Times Evoke, Mann discussed why India must inside us that drives us to serve the will of healthy environment and a renounce fossil fuels — and who should help it: our genes — survive long enough to pass healthy economy. We cannot sus- the genes on. The Higher Mind contains the tain life without taking care of What is the one most irrefutable human capacity for rationality, self-aware- nature. And we need healthy piece of data showing that climate The ‘hockey stick’ graph ness and wisdom. economiesI to lift people out of poverty change is real and harmful? published in 1998 by The Primitive Mind is endlessly greedy and and achieve the United Nations Sustain- It is the measured rise in carbon 0.4 °C Mann and his colleagues totally immersed in the present. The Higher able Development Goals. dioxide concentrations. From ba- showed how the Earth’s temperature, relatively Mind is reasonable, capable of seeing the big In our current model, these goals seem sic physics, we know this has to 0.2 picture and overriding our primal instincts. to collide and our economic pursuits en- be warming the planet — the ther- stable for 500 years, spiked Nobody is ever in one state of consciousness croach too closely on nature. But nature mometer measurements show sharply in the 20th century all the time. Sometimes, the Primitive Mind is is what makes industry possible. We can- that it is. 0 in charge, at others, the Higher Mind. not have human development without a As for harm, the record heat Yet, tragically, humanity has appar- healthy natural world. waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, -0.2 ently switched off its Higher Mind when The bottom line is that when we dam- superstorms — we wouldn’t be see-

it comes to the environmental crisis loom- age the natural world, we damage our- Greta Thunberg: ing these unprecedented weather -0.4 ing over us. With the Primitive Mind con- selves. Our growing economic footprint Her fears of a world extremes if not for the human- 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 trolling us, we’ve wreaked utter havoc on threatens our own future. With the pro- of climate change caused warming of the planet. YEARS the ecosystem. We’ve hurtled down a high- jected rise in ocean levels and the aver- must be heeded The fi ndings were ANOMALY (°C) ANOMALY way called progress, without pausing to age temperature of the planet, large Climate change is also impacting TEMPERATURE validated by another consider where it might be taking us. Well, swaths of land, even whole countries, multiple species beyond humanity. study in 2013 that it has taken us to a precipice. will become uninhabitable, triggering We are now seeing major classes showed a similar spike in Climate change is a simple, and vital, mass climate-induced migration. fuels or promote overuse and waste. IMF Change must begin now, and it must of animals — like amphibians — temperature after 1850 truth now. The evidence is undeniable. Since the natural and economic research found the implicit global sub- encompass us all. The youth of today disappearing at alarming rates. This beautiful planet is on the brink of worlds are linked, similar principles ap- sidy from undercharging for energy and understand this — think about coura- Climate change is a major cause. The sudden increase in the planet’s catastrophe. And we still don’t get it. We ply to both. In the financial world, we its environmental costs in 2017 was a geous people like Greta Thunberg. They Finally, deforestation’s devastat- temperature has coincided with engage in endless debates when all our would not eat into capital to the point of staggering $5.2 trillion, or 6.5 per cent are calling on older generations to act ing impact on ecosystems leads to humanity’s growing use of fossil fuels choices are just one — we can either save depletion because that of world GDP. now — because it is their futures at stake. the collapse of civilisations. the world, or see it go up in flames as glob- would bring financial The private sector can stop support- Nature is resilient. We can still re- al temperatures rise. ruin. Yet in the natural ing industries that damage the planet verse some of the damage inflicted on Why do you say climate change forcing alternative energy on us. This planet is all we have. And it needs us world, we have done this and instead invest in sustainable our precious planet. But time is running deniers are changing tack? India is suffering climate to activate our Higher Minds to heal the dam- repeatedly. We must treat development. Governments can roll out. If we don’t take decisive action in There is a “deflection campaign” change’s impacts, with unprec- age we’ve done, with compassion and wisdom. the natural world as we out policies to fight climate change and the next 10 to 20 years, the damage will — polluting interests are trying to edented flooding rains and Times Evoke’s special coverage is our ef- would the economic world the destruction of nature, for example, have passed irreversible tipping points. divert attention from the need for extreme heat. fort to reinforce your Higher Mind. We will — protecting natural capi- through promotion of clean-technolo- We must work now. For who among systematic change (like a price on Western nations, like the US, put you in touch with people who have dedi- tal so it can provide bene- gy research. us wants to face harsh reproach from carbon) to individual behaviour. with a much greater role in creat- cated their lives to making a difference. We fits well into the future. our grandchildren: “You knew it was But any real solution requires ing this problem through two cen- hope reading their thoughts will light a spark We can ensure that the happening, and you did nothing.” policies incentivising a shift away turies of fossil fuel dependence, in you, helping you be a force for change. price of fossil fuel energy We must treat the natural from fossil fuel burning. This re- must provide assistance to India, Our planet faces the most threatening reflects not only produc- Edited essay based on a conversation quests action by governments. to “leapfrog” past the fossil fuel existential challenge in its history. But you tion costs but also environ- world like the economic between Sir David Attenborough, natural And that’s opposed by polluters. stage to a clean energy economy. have the power to help save it. Get in- mental costs. We must world — protect natural historian, and former IMF managing There’s no reason other formed, get inspired and get empowered. eliminate energy subsidies director Christine Lagarde We often hear climate change is a countries must make the mis- Your time starts now. that encourage new fossil capital for the future December 2019 | Finance & Development 5 |Courtesy IMF ‘Western strategy’ to limit India by takes we did.

You’ve been researching the Sund- iar with local trains. In the event of arbans for decades. What are the a cyclone approaching Mumbai, most important differences you’ve ‘Climate change will hit the poor, working class people will be able to seen there due to climate change? evacuate while the middle classes It was the Sundarbans that opened probably will not. In fact, many mid- my eyes to the threat of climate dle class people will resist being The evidence for rapid climate change change. Even twenty years ago, it but the rich will lose the most’ evacuated, because their flats are was clear that large parts of the their major asset. They will not is compelling. Nasa provides the proof forest faced an imminent risk of Amitav Ghosh is a renowned author and anthropologist who has been writing about want to abandon their flats and inundation. However, these im- cars and move away. Current pacts cannot be ascribed solely to climate change since the 1980s. The Padma Shri awardee and Jnanpith winner spoke Middle class life is based on an GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE level climate change — human interfer- to Times Evoke about crucial environmental changes he has seen while studying the expectation of a certain kind of The planet’s average For millennia, atmospheric ence with the landscape has huge- Sundarbans over the years, how renewable energy could empower the developing stability — this will become in- surface temperature has ly magnified the impacts of sea- creasingly rare as the planetary carbon dioxide had never risen about 0.9°C since 1950 level rise in deltaic regions through- world — and why climate change might be more challenging for the rich than the poor: crisis unfolds. been above this line the late 19th century, a level out the world. change driven largely by Because of dams and barrages, This will certainly impact margin- The climate change debate often as well as the extraction of oil and alised groups. But why do you argue focuses on the West versus the increased carbon dioxide water, river deltas around the globe that richer groups may have a East’s role in creating the problem. and other human-made are sinking at three to four times the harder time dealing with climate But why do you say renewable en- emissions into the atmosphere rate of sea-level rise. change compared to the poor? ergy could ‘shake up the power 800,000 YEARS BEFORE TODAY 0 In the Sundarbans, there is the In my view, the idea that climate equations of the world’? additional factor of cyclonic ac- change is a threat primarily to the Energy is a critical element of tivity. The Bay of Bengal is a no- poor is misleading. The reality is, geopolitics. Since the early 20th Most of the warming 2016 occurred in the past 35 years, toriously cyclone-prone region. people will generally lose in pro- century, the global strategic order 1°C above 1951-1980 baseline Indeed the very word “cyclone” portion to their circumstances. has been based on the control of with the fi ve warmest years was coined in Calcutta in the For instance, the impacts will the flow of fossil fuels — oil, gas on record taking place since 1840s by an amateur English me- probably be disastrous for subsist- and coal. Maritime power is a 2010. Not only was 2016 the teorologist named Henry Pidding- ence-level farmers, in the sense crucial part of this since sixty per warmest year ever, but eight ton. Historically, Bengal, and the that they will be completely pau- cent of the world’s supply of oil of the 12 months — from Sundarbans, have experienced perised. But in aggregate terms, and gas is transported by sea. The January through September, some of the world’s most destruc- the wealthy stand to lose control of the flow of oil and gas excepting June — were the tive storms. In 1737, a cyclone al- the most, partly because across the oceans is a very impor- warmest on record for those most obliterated the city of Cal- Ghosh has studied the they have more to lose, and tant component of Western, and respective months 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 cutta. This storm was accompa- partly because their exist- especially American, strategic nied by an earthquake and a Sundarbans extensively. ence is tied to advanced dominance. storm surge reportedly of 40 feet His books on climate infrastructure. Unlike fossil fuels, renewable WARMING The oceans have absorbed much of this — more than three times higher change predict far When Hurricane Har- energy does not need to be trans- increased heat, with the top 700m of ocean than the 12-foot wave generated vey struck Houston in 2017, ported across the oceans — wind OCEANS showing warming of more than 0.4°F since 1969 by Cyclone Nargis. greater storms coming some of the wealthiest peo- and solar power can be generated Two other cyclones in the region ple, in one of the world’s locally. Hence, if there were to be killed hundreds of thousands of richest cities, were very a complete switchover globally to SHRINKING ICE SHEETS people — the Backerganj cyclone of toll exacted by cyclones. However, large stretches of once-fertile land badly impacted. Consider Califor- renewable energy, the strategic 1876 and the Bhola cyclone of 1970. cyclones continue to exact a terri- were inundated with salt water. In nia — the recent wildfires there importance of maritime power AND GLACIAL RETREAT The latter is thought to have killed ble cost, especially in the Sundar- the aftermath, there was a huge affected many people who live in (on which Western dominance The Greenland and Antarctic as many as half a million people — bans, since the mangrove forest is outflow of people from the region. the wealthiest parts of the state. has long been founded) would be ice sheets have decreased it is reckoned to be the worst natu- the barrier that protects the inte- I am told that Cyclone Bulbul, Or think of the extreme rainfall drastically reduced. in mass. Data from Nasa ral disaster of the 20th century. rior of Bengal by absorbing the which struck the Sundarbans in events (‘rain-bombs’) that hit There is no such transition shows Greenland lost an In recent years, advance warn- main impact of destructive storms. November 2019, has also caused Mumbai and Chennai over the happening at the necessary scale ing systems and improved evacua- When Cyclone Aila struck in enormous damage. last few years — these urban in the near future. However, we average of 286 billion tons tion have hugely reduced the death 2009, the death toll was, fortunately, One of the predicted effects of floods certainly did not spare mid- can be sure that the present plan- of ice per year between 1993 much lower than with earlier climate change is that it will inten- dle class or wealthy people. etary crisis will lead to significant and 2016, while Antarctica storms. But the long-term ef- sify cyclonic activity — this means In India, the urban working changes in the world’s geopoliti- lost about 127 billion tons of fects have been devastating that the Sundarbans, and the Bengal classes are often much more mobile cal order — these changes are ice per year during the same — many embankments delta, will be hit by many more dev- than middle class people — they already unfolding, and they will time period. The rate of were destroyed, and astating storms in years to come. travel to their villages and are famil- accelerate in years to come. Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade

ICY REALITIES WHY ARCTIC ICE MATTERS Global sea level rose about 226mm 200mm in the last century.

200mm SEA Surface air in the Arctic ice is a huge shield which refl ects The rate in the last two decades, Arctic is warming at solar warming back into space however, is nearly double LEVEL twice the global rate It thus prevents this from being that of the last century and is Temperatures in the Arctic absorbed by the ocean, heating up the accelerating slightly every year RISE over the last fi ve years have waters — and melting more ice exceeded all records since 1900 Losing this ice is the warming 100 Today, the extent of Arctic equivalent of an extra 25 years summer sea ice is at its second of emissions at current rates lowest since the start of This warming, causing the loss of satellite observations in 1979 species habitat in the Arctic, is also PIVOTAL causing the thawing of permafrost PERMAFROST 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 For every one degree Permafrost is a HOW TO PRESERVE Celsius rise in average layer of frozen OCEAN ACIDIFICATION global temperatures, ARCTIC ICE ground, hundreds of permafrost can release It’s crucial to reduce carbon Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of feet deep in the Arctic upto six years of coal, oil emissions via carbon taxes, surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 per cent. This It is over double and gas emissions land use change, etc. increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the size of the USA the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. An added danger Permafrost contains solid ice along Alongside, cutting short- The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the is ‘abrupt thaw’, or the It’s at the northernmost part lived pollutants — like oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year with thousands of years of accumulated solid ice in permafrost also of the earth. But the polar plant and animal life — its layers are black carbon, methane and melting, creating surface tropospheric ozone — is key region is no longer distant from thus rich in carbon stored over millennia depressions, causing the our lives. It is central to how As the Arctic warms, icy ground to warm up further, This can be achieved climate change will impact us permafrost is thawing too and more ice to melt through limiting methane Warming permafrost is causing the Permafrost could thus soon emissions from landfi lls, strict release of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide become as large a greenhouse norms on hydrofl uorocarbons, and methane — a greenhouse gas that’s gas emitter as China — the used in ACs, fridges, etc., and 84 times more potent than CO2 world’s largest emitter reducing diesel emissions Research: NYT, 14 December, 2019; Geophysical Research Letters, June 2019; National Geographic, September 2019 Via climate.nasa.gov