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Housing Land Supply Mar 2013

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Aylesbury Vale District Housing Land Supply Position as at end March 2013 Introduction This document sets out the housing land supply position in Aylesbury Vale District as at 31st March 2013. It uses the locally-derived housing target from the proposed submission Vale of Aylesbury Plan (VAP) Strategy. Lists of sites included in the housing land supply are given in Appendices 1 and 2. Assessment of current housing land supply The current supply of housing land in the District is made up from: Sites with planning permission; Sites that do not yet have planning permission, but that have been approved in principle, subject to the completion of a Section 106 or planning obligation agreement; Sites that are allocated in the Aylesbury Vale District Local Plan but that do not yet have planning permission or approval subject to a Section 106 agreement. All sites for 5 dwellings or more that are included in the supply have been individually assessed as being available, suitable and achievable. Wherever possible we have obtained up- to-date estimates of build rates from housing developers. All sites for under 5 dwellings that have full planning permission have been included in the supply, but the overall total has been subjected to a 10% discount to account for the fact that some sites will not be implemented. Summary of housing land supply position Total number of dwellings (net of losses) Deliverable sites with 5,094 planning permission Deliverable sites not yet with 3,010 planning permission but approved subject to S106 Deliverable sites identified in 108 AVDLP but not yet with planning permission or approved subject to S106 Total deliverable supply 8,212 2013-2031 Note that the site at Newton Leys for 350 dwellings has been excluded from the supply, because this site goes towards meeting the requirement in the now-revoked South East Plan for the South West Milton Keynes urban extension (North East Aylesbury Vale), and such a requirement is not included in the housing target in the proposed submission VAP strategy. 1 Out of this total supply, the number of dwellings expected to be delivered in the next two five year periods is: Total Deliverable 4,461 supply 2013-2018 Deliverable 3,965 supply 2014-2019 It can be seen that 4,461 dwellings are deliverable within the 5 year period 2013-2018 (an average annual figure of 892 dwellings). When these figures are compared against the trajectory of housing delivery that has taken place within the district, they indicate that there is sufficient supply to deliver an increased level of housing over the next 5 years, compared to earlier years (the average annual number of dwellings completed over 2008-2013 was 866). A target of 13,500 dwellings in the District for the 2011-2031 period is included in the proposed submission VAP Strategy. Total requirement Annual average Average over 5 year 2011-2031 requirement period District Total 13,500 675 3,375 Tables are set out below showing the calculations of housing land supply based on the locally- derived VAP Strategy housing target. This is shown firstly for the period 2013 to 2018, and then for the period 2014 to 2019. In accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework (paragraph 47) a buffer of 5% is added to the requirement1. Note that the site at Newton Leys for 350 dwellings has been excluded from the supply, because this site goes towards meeting the requirement in SEP for the South West Milton Keynes urban extension (North East Aylesbury Vale), and such a requirement is not included in the housing target in the proposed submission VAP strategy. 1 The NPPF states that where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing, the buffer should be increased to 20% (moved forward from later in the plan period). The average annual number of dwellings completed from 2008-2013 was 866, and the average over the longer time period from 2003 to 2013 was 801. So against the proposed VAP target of 675 completions per year, there is no record of persistent under delivery. The now-revoked South East Plan contained a much higher annual target of 1,345 dwellings per year. Although this number of completions has not been met in recent years, there has consistently been a large supply of deliverable sites in the district (amounting to in excess of 7,300 dwellings in all years since 2007). However, the economic downturn and the accompanying effects upon the housing market mean that developers were not bringing sites forward at rates sufficient to meet the former South East Plan targets. This was a result of market-led decisions by developers, rather than a lack of deliverable housing land supply. 2 Housing land supply for 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2018 District VAP requirement 3,375 Pre-2013 oversupply 687 Adjustment to requirement * -191 Total 5 year requirement 3,184 Total 5 year requirement 3,343 plus additional buffer of 5% Total projected supply 4,461 from deliverable sites Projected supply as 133.4% percentage of (6.7 years) requirement *This adjustment takes account of the number of actual housing completions in the period 2011 to 2013. This has exceeded the VAP requirement. The oversupply is subtracted from the VAP requirement for the remaining 18 years of the VAP period. So the requirement for the first five years is decreased by 5 x 687 / 18. Housing land supply for 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2019 – using VAP target District VAP requirement 3,375 Pre-2014 oversupply 999 Adjustment to requirement * -294 Total 5 year requirement 3,081 Total 5 year requirement 3,235 plus additional buffer of 5% Total projected supply 3,965 from deliverable sites Projected supply as 122.6% percentage of (6.1 years) requirement *This adjustment takes account of the number of actual housing completions in the period 2011 to 2013 and the number of projected completions from 2013 to 2014. This has exceeded the VAP requirement. The oversupply is subtracted from the VAP requirement for the remaining 17 years of the VAP period. So the requirement for the first five years is decreased by 5 x 999 / 17. Details of individual sites The tables in Appendices 1 and 2 list all the individual sites that make up the housing land supply figures given in the tables above. 3 Appendix 1: List of sites contributing to the projected housing supply Estimated number of completions Deliverability commentary Status as at Total number 2013-2031 * 2013-2018 2014-2019 Available Suitable Achievable 31/03/2013 of dwellings (five years) (five years) Aylesbury - With Planning Permission Berryfields Major AVDLP & 3000 2541 1041 1110 Under construction. Contact made with Development Area (MDA) Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Weedon Hill MDA AVDLP & 1037 197 197 127 Under construction. Estimated completion (Buckingham Park) Permission rate from developers/agents. Stoke Mandeville Hospital AVDLP & 330 137 137 102 Under construction. Contact made with (south part & some land Permission developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. outside allocation), Lower Road Gatehouse Quarter Permission 370 234 234 164 Under construction. Contact made with developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Berryfields House (Berryfields AVDLP & 235 235 212 223 Contact made with developers/agents. MDA) Permission Estimated completion rate provided. Hartwell Sidings, Oxford Road Permission 75 75 75 75 Assumed to be completed by 2016/17. (extension of time limit applied for) Former Bearbrook House, AVDLP & 75 75 75 50 Contact made with developers/agents. Oxford Road Permission Estimated completion date provided. Mandeville School, Ellen Permission 34 32 32 8 Under construction. Contact made with Road developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Jansel Square, Brentwood Permission 20 20 20 0 Contact made with developers/agents. Way, Aylesbury Estimated completion date provided. 4 Walton Court Centre, Permission 21 21 21 0 Contact made with developers/agents. Aylesbury Estimated completion date provided. Garage site, Orwell Drive, Permission 12 12 12 0 Under construction. Contact made with Aylesbury developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. Garage court, Gilmore Road, Permission 5 5 5 0 Under construction. Contact made with Aylesbury developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. Sites < 5 dwellings (see 44 44 29 appendix 2 below) Aylesbury Total - With Planning Permission 3628 2105 1888 Rest of District - With Planning Permission Land to south of the A421 and Permission 700 672 672 472 Under construction. Contact made with east of A413, London Road, developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Buckingham Former Princess Mary’s AVDLP & 400 52 52 0 Under construction. Contact made with Hospital, Wendover Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Verney Road, Winslow AVDLP & 218 114 114 104 Under construction. Contact made with permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Former Pitstone cement works AVDLP & 164 12 12 0 Site nearing completion. permission Bridge Street, Buckingham AVDLP & 103 25 25 0 Site nearing completion. permission Land off Brickhill Way and Permission 98 24 24 0 Under construction. Contact made with Sandstone Close, Calvert developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Green Tingewick Road, Buckingham Permission 86 86 58 86 Completions assumed to commence in (extension of time 2016/17. limit applied for) 5 Haddenham & Thame Permission 71 71 71 36 Under construction. Contact made with Parkway Station, Thame Road, developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. Haddenham Former Spicer Hallfield, Permission 48 6 6 0 Nearing completion. Banks Road, Haddenham Manor Lodge, Winslow Road, Permission 16 1 1 0 Nearing completion. Wingrave Cobb Hall Road, Newton Permission 15 15 15 15 Site to be marketed. Assumed to be Longville completed by 2016/17.
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