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State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011

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State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 state and trends of the Washington DC, June 2011 2011 state and trends of the 2011 Environment Department This report was prepared by a World Bank team comprising of Nicholas Linacre, Alexandre Kossoy and Philippe Ambrosi, with important contributions from Manelle Aït Sahlia, Veronique Bishop, Benoît Bosquet, Christophe de Gouvello, Taisei Matsuki and Monali Ranade. 2 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 New Approach for the 2011 Report With the goal of providing a comprehensive discus- sion of the issues that most affected the carbon mar- ket in 2010, the authors of last year’s report have re- structured State and Trends of the Carbon Market for 2011. The report still provides an overview of the size and reach of the carbon markets, as well as the evolu- tion of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms, and offers potential supply/demand scenarios for coming years. However, it no longer includes a detailed breakdown of carbon transactions, as in previous years. Instead, the report provides a more in-depth analytical dis- cussion of the regulation and policy issues that will guide future carbon market development. The findings and opinions expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be cited without permission. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, the countries they represent or of any of the participants in the carbon funds or facilities man- aged by the World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This report is not intended to form the basis of an investment decision. The bound- aries, colors, denominations, and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Section 1 photo credit: Jan Golinski / UNFCCC Section 2 photo credit: Veer Incorporated Section 3 photo credit: Veer Incorporated Section 4 photo credit: Dreamstime LLC Section 2 photo credit: Veer Incorporated Design: Studio Grafik Printing: Westland Printers 2 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 | 3 Acknowledgements The report benefitted greatly from colleagues in the Akiko Nishimae, John O’Brien, Klaus Oppermann, carbon market who provided their written contribu- Molly Peters-Stanley, Vicky Pollard, Leila Pourarkin, tions and perspectives: Olga Christyakova, Martin Neeraj Prasad, Brice J. M. Quesnel, David Rapin, Lawless, and Damien Meadows. Heike Reichelt, Renaud Scardina, Kai-Uwe Barani Schmidt, Guido Schmidt-Traub, Chandra We wish to extend our gratitude to those who offered Shekhar Sinha, Trevor Sikorski, Milo Sjardin, Yvon their cooperation and insights during the elaboration Slingenberg, Sara Stahl, Andy Stone, Aurelien Tignol, of this report: Edwin Aalders, Schwan Badirou Gafari, Sarah Underwood, Laurent Valiergue, John Virgoe, Ellysar Baroudy, Jean-Jacques Barberis, François Alessandro Vitelli, George Waldburg, Xueman Wang, Beaurain, Luca Bertali, Agnès Biscaglia, Martina Vikram Widge, Yevgen Yesyrkenov, Peter Zapfel, Ivan Bosi, Ana Bucher, Marcos Castro, Lance Coogan, Zelenko, Elizabeth Zelljadt. Isabelle Curien, Keith Davis, Karen Degouve de Nuncques, Eduardo Dopazo, Jason Dunn, Saša We would also like to thank all of those who took Eichberger, Emmanuel Fages, Laura Fidao, Greger time to respond to the market survey. Without your Flodin, James Foster, Javier Freire Coloma, Martin responses the report would be less than it is. Finally, French, Pranab Ghosh, Matthew Gray, Pierre we want to thank the many market participants strug- Guigon, Isabel Hagbrink, Katherine Hamilton, gling to make a difference on a critical global issue. Henrik Hasselknippe, Carina Heimdal, Andrew Howard, Robert M. Hunt, Daigo Koga, Werner The State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 re- Kornexl, Ganna Korniyenko, Benoît Leguet, Gautier ceived financial support from the CF-Assist Program, Le Maux, Mark Lewis, Zijun Li, Peter Lloyd, Thomas managed by the World Bank Institute (WBI). Marcello, Allison McManus, Rachel Mountain, 4 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms AAU Assigned Amount Unit EUA European Union Allowance AAUPA AAU Purchase Agreement EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading Scheme AB 32 Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate Assembly Bill 32 FSB Financial Stability Board ACR American Carbon Registry GDP Gross Domestic Product ADB Asian Development Bank GGAS New South Wales Greenhouse Gas AfDB African Development Bank Reduction Scheme AMF Autorité des Marchés Financiers GHG Greenhouse Gas AWG-KP Ad Hoc Working Group on Further GIS Green Investment Scheme Commitments for Annex I Parties under HFC Hydrochlorofluorocarbon the Kyoto Protocol IFC International Finance Corporation AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term IEA International Energy Agency Collaborative Action IFI International Financial Institution CAPEX Capital Expenditures IFRS International Financial Reporting Standard CARB California Air Resources Board IMF International Monetary Fund CAR Climate Action Reserve IRR Internal Rate of Return CCP central counterparties J-VETS Japan-Voluntary Emissions Trading Scheme CCS Carbon Capture and Storage JI Joint Implementation CCX Chicago Climate Exchange JISC Joint Implementation Supervisory CDM Clean Development Mechanism Committee CER Certified Emission Reduction KM Kyoto Mechanism CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp LBFR Law on Banking and Financial Regulation CFTC Commodities Future Trading Commission LDC Least Developed Country CH4 Methane LEDS Low Emission Development Strategies CMM Coal Mine Methane lCER Long-term Certified Emission Reduction CMP Conference of the Parties serving as the LFG Landfill Gas Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol LoA Letter of Approval CPF Carbon Partnership Facility LRET Large-scale Renewable Energy Target CO2 Carbon Dioxide LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent MAD Market Abuse Directive COP Conference of the Parties MCCF Multilateral Carbon Credit Fund CPA CDM Programme Activity MDB Multilateral Development Bank CPRS Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme MiFiD Markets in Financial Instruments Directive CP-1 First Commitment Period under the Kyoto MOP Meeting of the Parties Protocol MRET Mandatory Renewable Energy Target CRE Commission de régulation de l’énergie MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification CRT Climate Reserve Tonne NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action DNA Designated National Authority NCCP National Climate Change Policy DOE Designated Operational Entity NDRC National Development and Reform EB Executive Board of the CDM Commission EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and N2O Nitrous Oxide Development NAP National Allocation Plan EC European Commission NPV Net Present Value ECX European Climate Exchange NZ ETS New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme EE Energy Efficiency NZU New Zealand Unit EIT Economy in Transition OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation EITE Emission-intensive, Trade-exposed and Development ER Emission Reduction OTC Over-the-Counter ERPA Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement pCER Primary Certified Emission Reduction ERU Emission Reduction Unit PDD Project Design Document ESC Energy Savings Certificate PFC Perfluorocarbon ESS Energy Savings Scheme PIN Project Idea Note ETS Emissions Trading Scheme PMR Partnership for Market Readiness EU European Union PoA CDM Programme of Activities 4 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 | 5 POI Proof of Identity SF6 Sulfur Hexafluoride PP Project Participant SME Small and Medium-size Enterprise R&D Research and Development SRES Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme RE Renewable Energy tCO2 Ton of Carbon Dioxide REC Renewable Energy Certificate tCO2e Ton of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and tCER Temporary Certified Emission Reduction Forest Degradation UN United Nations REDD+ Extends REDD by including sustainable UNEP United Nations Environment Programme forest management, conservation of forests, UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on and enhancement of carbon sinks. Climate Change REMIT Regulation on Energy Markets Integrity and VAT Value-added Tax Transparency VCS Voluntary Carbon Standard RET Renewable Energy Target VCU Verified Carbon Units RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative VER Verified Emission Reduction RMU Removal Unit WB World Bank sCER Secondary Certified Emission Reduction WCI Western Climate Initiative SCF Strategic Climate Fund WTI West Texas Intermediate SEI Sustainable Energy Initiative WTO World Trade Organization 6 | |State State and and Trends Trends of of the the Carbon Carbon Market Market 2010 2010 6 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010 | 7 Contents Acknowledgements 3 Overview 9 Introduction 11 1. International Developments—Cancun Conference and the Post-2012 Environment 13 1.1 Improvements to the Clean Development Mechanism and Continuing Support for Market Mechanisms 14 1.2 Climate Finance and the Establishment of the Green Climate Fund 16 1.3 Recognition of Developing Country Contributions to Mitigation and a Better Representation of Forestry-related Activities 16 1.4 Beyond Cancun—Market Perceptions 17 1.5 Conclusions 18 2. Domestic Policy Developments—A Story of Fragmentation 21 2.1 Annex I Countries 22 2.2 Non-Annex I Countries 33 2.3
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