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Reflections on the Origins of the Revolution of 1979 in Iran: Why History Matters

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Reflections on the Origins of the Revolution of 1979 in Iran: Why History Matters Durham Middle East Papers REFLECTIONS ON THE ORIGINS OF THE REVOLUTION OF 1979 IN IRAN: WHY HISTORY MATTERS Michael Axworthy Durham Middle East Paper No. 99 THE ANN LAMPTON MEMORIAL LECTURE Durham Middle East Papers Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Durham University Al-Qasimi Building Elvet Hill Road Durham REFLECTIONS ON THE ORIGINS OF THE REVOLUTION OF Durham Middle East Papers No. 99 DH1 3TU IISSN 1476-4830 1979 IN IRAN: WHY HISTORY MATTERS Tel: +44 (0)191 3345680 October 2019 The Durham Middle East Papers series covers all aspects of the economy, politics, social science, history, literature and languages of the Middle East. Authors are invited to submit papers to the Editorial Board for consideration for publication. The views expressed in this paper are the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher or IMEIS. All Rights Reserved. This paper cannot Michael Axworthy be photocopied or reproduced without prior permission. Durham Middle East Paper No. 99 © Michael Axworthy and Durham University, 2019 About The Institute Editorial Board The Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies (IMEIS), within the Professor Anoush Ehteshami Dr Colin Turner School of Government & International Affairs, is a Social Science-focused Exofficio member Reader in Islamic Thought in academic institute of excellence, research-led in ethos, with a track-record of Professor of International Relations the School of Government and internationally acclaimed research outputs across all sub-areas of its activity. in the School of Government and International Affairs Success in this respect obtains largely from the interdisciplinary nature of International Affairs the Institute’s activities and the fruitful interaction of political economists, Dr Carly Beckerman political scientists, historians and Islamicists, as well as with colleagues from Professor Clive Jones Art editor Professor of Regional Security in Assistant Professor in the Anthropology, Arabic, Archaeology, Geography, Business – all linked together the School of Government and International Relations of the Middle by their collective focus on the study of the Middle East and the Muslim world International Affairs, Durham East in the School of Government and in the widest sense. University International Affairs Dr May Darwich Assistant Professor in the About the Papers International Relations of the Middle East in the School of Government and Established in the early 1970s the multidisciplinary series includes topics on International Affairs all aspects of the social sciences and arts in the Middle East, written by leading and emerging scholars in their respective fields. Advisory Board Professor Rory Miller Professor James Piscatori Georgetown University, Doha Australian National University Professor Beverly Milton-Edwards Sir Harold Walker, KCMG Queen’s University, Belfast Member, Luce Foundation Mr Richard Muir, CMG Chair, Luce Committee 4 5 THE ANN LAMPTON MEMORIAL LECTURE INTRODUCTION A few years ago I was having coffee with some neighbours where we live in 2018 Cornwall, when their teenage son abruptly asked me why there had been a revolution in Iran in 1979. Michael Axworthy was a noble scholar, and policy analyst, whose gentleness He knew I was an historian specialising in Iran, and thought I should be able to manifested itself in his sensitivity towards his subject matter and in his answer what was to him a very natural question. After a moment’s hesitation, exchanges with his peers and students. For this he was universally loved. I decided I should do my best to reply rather than evade the question or laugh But Michael’s scholarship remains a testament of his laser-sharp mind and it off, so I did my best. tremendously rich reservoir of knowledge. His insightful and lucid writings on Iran stand him out as one of this century’s greatest commentators on that Like many simple questions, it is one country and a man of integrity whose analytical judgements single him as the question that is quite difficult and complex what has been referred to as a ‘humane western interpreter’ of that country. “... to answer, and is capable of many Michael gave one of his last public speeches here in Durham in March 2018 and different answers. But any historian of electrified us with his powerful reinterpretation of the 1979 Islamic revolution invites a complex modern Iran has to take some kind of in Iran. He was an outstanding Lambton Lecturer and it is fitting that we have view on it, and the different views taken the pleasure of publishing one of his last pieces of writing. His untimely death answer ...” by different historians often reflect, in has been a blow to the field and to those who valued his calmness, passion and turn, the different sectors of opinion humanity. We will forever be grateful to have had the chance to host him in and political groupings that were involved in 1979. Because the revolution Durham, enjoy his company and to have received his wisdom. was violent and divisive, so too the opinions of Iranians and others about it are often strong and intransigent. So the question invites a complex answer Professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami that may bring violent disagreement down upon it. Nonetheless, it is the duty May 2019 of an historian to make the attempt. To give an outline account and set the scene for the uninitiated, the bare facts of the revolution can be quite briefly told. It began in a period of economic uncertainty, after the oil-fuelled boom of the early 1970s had begun to falter, with rising inflation and unemployment. In 1977 the Shah’s government relaxed some of its previous repressive measures, permitting the reappearance of some expressions of dissent from the liberal left. But an attack in a government-backed newspaper on the exiled Ayatollah Khomeini in January 1978 led to a demonstration by religious students in the shrine city of Qom in which a number of demonstrators were shot and killed by police. 6 7 Fuelled by condemnations from each stage in the development of One point I would like to make Khomeini outside Iran and from the revolution, of each event and “There are today is that the revolution of other clerics within, a cycle of further incident, because only then was 1979 was not successful because demonstrations and shootings it possible to understand how a all Iranians thought the same followed, after intervals of 40 days succession of actions and responses many different way, but because for a brief time a each time. The demonstrations altered the perspective of a whole large majority of Iranians, despite (mainly involving young students and population so that it came to reject differences between the social and people from the bazaars) got larger the authority of a government it had answers to ideological groups to which they and more violent, and the number previously accepted as normal (this belonged, came together, accepting of dead increased. Over the summer process of rejection is something that the question the leadership of Ayatollah and early autumn workers frustrated Ryszchard Kapucynski also writes Khomeini, to demand an end to at low pay joined demonstrations and about interestingly in his book Shah the monarchy. It is important to went on strike – the strikes in the oil of Shahs2 ). In my book Revolutionary of what grasp this, because after 1979 those industry being especially damaging. Iran I also followed a narrative groups again diverged, and have On 8 September (afterwards known as method, and wrote about the 40 – day had their own partisan views of the Black Friday) martial law was declared cycle between days of mourning that happened...” revolution since, and what went and a large number of demonstrators became days of protest in the first wrong. There are many different were killed in Tehran. After this the half of 1979 as a Revolutionary Lung, answers to the question of what Shah lost whatever credibility he had breathing life into the revolutionary happened in 1979, as I said at the left and the general wish (aligning movement. outset. with Khomeini’s long-standing demand) was for him to go. Strikes Kurzman is a sociologist, and he called Of course there was one group who and demonstrations continued and his analysis an anti-explanation, but never agreed with the revolution increased in intensity, especially in one might more properly call it an and never accepted Khomeini, even the religious season of Ashura in historical explanation3 – indeed the for a short period, and that was the December. Troops began to desert, kind of historical explanation that supporters of the monarchy. One and on 16 January 1979 the Shah emphasises the reconstruction of may take Gholam Reza Afkhami flew out of the country. Khomeini the pressures acting on people and and his book The Life and Times returned on 1 February, troops loyal groups at specific points of time, of the Shah4 as representative of to the Shah’s government gave up the when decisions are made. More this group. As I wrote in a review struggle ten days later and at the end specifically, in that respect, it has of that book for Prospect magazine of March a nationwide referendum similarities to the kind of history in 20095 , Afkhami and other gave overwhelming support for an advocated and practiced, albeit in monarchists have a problem with Islamic Republic. a different context, by the school the 1979 revolution. Their view of British 20th century historians is that the Shah was a strong, There you go – those are just the that included Lewis Namier, Herbert competent king who wanted the bare bones of a narrative. It may tell Butterfield and Maurice Cowling. best for his people and did great us part of the why, but only part.
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