“Debt Rescheduling in Comparative Perspective,” October 1998, paper prepared for the World Bank for use in the World Bank Publication Global Economic Prospects and The Developing Countries, 19998/9 ((Washington D.C.: World Bank). DEBT RESCHEDULING IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE Vinod K. Aggarwal Berkeley APEC Study Center 802 Barrows Hall, #1970 University of California Berkeley, California 94720-1970 Tel.: 510-642-2817 Fax: 510-643-1746 Email:
[email protected] OCTOBER 1998 Paper prepared for presentation at a World conference on “Capital Flows in Crisis,” Washington, D.C., October 27-28, 1998, sponsored by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee. I am grateful to Mike Hunzeker, Moonhawk Kim, and Brandon Loew for valuable research assistance. The Asian crisis, while affecting many countries in the region, is clearly a misnomer. The reasons behind the current crises in several of the affected countries differ greatly, and the policy approaches followed by these countries have similarly varied. This paper examines two Asian countries, Indonesia and South Korea, as well as the case of Russia, to analyze how efforts to cope with debt problems have evolved. The range of outcomes to this point is very large: Russia is currently in default and in the midst of negotiations, Indonesia has completed several agreements on its debt, while South Korea appears to be the furthest along in recovering following an agreement with commercial banks in January 1998. By focusing on the conduct of debt-related discussions in these countries, and comparing the developments we have seen to previous debt rescheduling attempts, I hope to shed light on the factors influencing the variety we have seen in negotiations.