Report on Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area
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Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report MH11049SRF02July2016 PREPARED BY West Pier Business Campus, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin T. +353 1 488 2900 E. [email protected] rpsgroup.com/ireland Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report Document Control Sheet Client: Grangegorman Development Agency Project Title: Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report Document Title: Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report Document No: MH11049SRD01 Text Pages: 26 Appendices: 5 Rev. Status Date Author(s) Reviewed By Approved By th F01 Final 13 July 2016 RK PS/LK PS/LK LK This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of the Client. It is provided for sole use of the Client and its professional advisors. Information disclosed should be treated as being strictly private and confidential. Any use which a third party makes of this document, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, is the responsibility of such third parties. No responsibility is accepted by RPS for the use of this Document, in whole or in part, for any other purpose. rpsgroup.com/ireland Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 3 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 3 2 PRIMARY SCHOOL PROVISION WITHIN THE GRANGEGORMAN PLANNING SCHEME ........... 5 2.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 5 3 POPULATION PROFILE ...................................................................................................... 7 3.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 7 3.2 CENSUS 2011 ................................................................................................................................ 9 3.2.1 Religious Profile ............................................................................................................... 11 4 SCHOOL PROVISION AND ENROLMENT ........................................................................... 13 4.1 GENERAL PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT ......................................................................................... 13 4.2 EXISTING SCHOOL PROVISION IN DOE CABRA/PHIBSBOROUGH/DUBLIN 7 SCHOOL PLANNING AREA ........... 14 4.3 SCHOOL ENROLMENT IN D7ET ....................................................................................................... 18 4.4 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AND SKILLS PROJECTIONS OF PRIMARY SCHOOL PLACES ............................. 22 4.4.1 General Methodology ..................................................................................................... 22 4.4.2 Demographic projections ................................................................................................ 22 5 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................ 25 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 – Site Context ......................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2.1 – Location of Primary School within Grangegorman Planning Scheme 2012 ........................ 5 Figure 2.2 – Site Context ......................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3.1 – D7 School Catchment and Census Electoral Districts ......................................................... 8 Figure 3.2 – Population Changes 2002-2011 ........................................................................................ 11 Figure 3.3 – Religious Profile 2011 ........................................................................................................ 12 Figure 4.1 – Origin of D7ET Pupils ......................................................................................................... 15 Figure 4.2 – Distribution of Junior Infants in the Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 ................................. 16 Figure 4.3 – Proportion of School Patronage within D7 Catchment 5 and 10 Year Trend ................... 18 MH11049SRF02 i Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 – Population Change Electoral Divisions and Study Area ....................................................... 9 Table 3.2 – Population Change Electoral Divisions and Study Area ..................................................... 10 Table 3.3 – Religious Profile .................................................................................................................. 12 Table 4.1 - Enrolments of Full-Time Students (Number) by Level & Number of Schools ..................... 13 Table 4.2 – Primary School Sizes 2010-2015 ......................................................................................... 13 Table 4.3 – Single Sex Schools 2005-2015 ............................................................................................ 14 Table 4.4 – Breakdown of School Patronage within D7 Catchment 5 and 10 Year Trend .................... 17 Table 4.5 – Proportion of School Patronage within D7 Catchment 5 and 10 Year Trend .................... 17 Table 4.6 – School Enrolment ............................................................................................................... 18 Table 4.7 - Projected junior infant intake based on 113% intake pattern ............................................ 22 APPENDICES Appendix A Department of Education and Skills Capacity Report Appendix B Educate Together Background/Ethos Appendix C Table Data from Department of Education and Skills Appendix D Increase in Enrolments Appendix E Department of Education and Skills Mapping MH11049SRF02 ii Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 School Planning Area - School Provision Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It is clear that the population trends in the overall Cabra/Phibsborough/Dublin 7 school planning area has consistently shown an increase over the period 2002-2011. Within the catchment the key drivers of population growth are the Pelletstown area near Ashtown station and the Electoral districts in proximity to the Grangegorman Campus. Elsewhere in older established neighbourhoods, the population has declined, but the overall trend is positive and higher (nearly double) than that for the overall Dublin City area. The religious denomination of an area is a key driver of school preference. There is greater diversity in the religious (and non-religious) in Dublin City and the environs of the D7ETNS, compared to the State. For the State the percentage of Catholics was 84% compared to 75% for Dublin City, 69.2% for the D7 catchment, and 79.4% in the wider catchment. For the core catchment the percentage of Catholics was 59.1%. The proportion of other stated religions at 18.8% for the core catchment was over twice the national average at 8.4%, while the percentage of no religion was recorded at 17.7% for the core catchment area nearly three times the total compared to the State at 5.9%. For the State the overall trend in primary school enrolment numbers between 2005 and 2015 was an increase of 21.2%. Notwithstanding this increase, the actual number of schools remained relatively stable, with a slight fall of -0.6% over the same period with 3,157 primary schools in 2005 compared to 3,137 in 2015. The overall trend nationally is for larger schools, with a significant decrease in the schools of 50-99 pupils which recorded a fall of 16% or 134 no. schools in that size range between 2010 and 2015. This compares to an increase of 68 no. schools in the 300-499 size range (a 21.9% increase) and an increase of 25 no. schools (or 26.9% of primary schools in the 500+ size range. Single sex schools are generally in decline reducing by 71 in number (or 17%) between 2005 and 2015, while co-educational schools increased over the same period by 119 in number or 4.6%. For the 2015/16 school year, 658 junior infants enrolled in primary schools in the D7 school planning area. For the 2016/17 school year, the projections indicate that up to 785 junior infants will be seeking places. This is an additional 127 junior infants over and above those enrolled for the 2015/16 school year. This represents an increase of 19.3%. The overall enrolment numbers increased by 7.2% over 10 years for all schools. For all Catholic schools the numbers decreased by -1.7%, while the single sex Catholic schools recorded a decrease of -6.0%. In contrast the Co-Educational Catholic schools increased enrolment by 6.6%, while the number of other schools (Church of Ireland, Muslim and Multi-denominational), increased by 66.7% over the same period, albeit from a low base. Given the religious profile of the D7 school planning area, it is anticipated that the existing trend away from single sex Catholic schools will continue. The religious profile of the area is more diverse than the national and City wide average. In light of this, it is considered that the traditional religious model, while still having an important place and choice for parents, that the patronage of schools reflects the belief system(s) of all