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Mack's Slide Presentation Dark Matter, First Light Katie Mack North Carolina State University Simons Emmy Noether Fellow, Perimeter www.astrokatie.com : @AstroKatie entire Standard Model of Particle Physics Dark Matter Image: dark matter: K. Mack; Andromeda Galaxy: GALEX, JPL-Caltech, NASA What We Don’t Know Origin / particle type Particle mass Thermal history Non-trivial evolution? Particle Zoo One component or many? Non-gravitational interactions (self or SM)? Small-scale behavior (mass of smallest halos) Candidates (incomplete list) ✦ Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) ‣ Something not included in the Standard Model of Particle Physics, generally with weak interactions ‣ May be thermally produced (or not) Annihilating (e.g., SUSY neutralino WIMP) Decaying (e.g., sterile neutrino) Warm (WDM) (e.g., axino) Self-interacting (SIDM) (particle + dark sector force) Axion (e.g., QCD axion / string axion) Fuzzy DM (tiny mass, large deBroglie wavelength) MACHO (e.g., primordial black holes) Candidates (incomplete list) ✦ Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (a.k.a., WIMPs) ‣ Something not included in the Standard Model of Particle Physics Annihilating (e.g., SUSY neutralino WIMP) Decaying (e.g., axino) Warm (WDM) (e.g., sterile neutrino) Self-interacting (SIDM) (particle + dark sector force) Axion (e.g., QCD axion / string axion) MACHO (e.g., primordial black holes) Annihilating WIMPS Key detection signature: ? WIMP annihilation Why annihilating dark matter? ‣ Good candidates in supersymmetry (e.g. neutralino), Kaluza-Klein theory (e.g. B1) ‣ Early thermal equilibrium and freeze-out gives natural production mechanism WIMP Miracle Standard thermal WIMP dark matter • freezes out when no longer in thermal equilibrium with baryons • for weak-scale mass and cross-section, predict correct abundance of DM • discovery opportunities: annihilation, scattering, production Kolb & Turner 1990 Dark Matter: Indirect Detection ? ‣ signature: cosmic rays, gamma rays, neutrinos (annihilation products) ‣ results: inconclusive ‣ the future: giant cosmic ray array (CTA), high- resolution gamma-ray astronomy Galactic Center Gamma Rays Gamma-ray excess in Galactic Center at 1-3 GeV 31-40 GeV WIMP annihilation? In favor: spatial distribution looks plausible; fairly simple WIMP model, possible new hints seen in Andromeda Against: Galactic Center is messy; Daylan et al. 2014 complicated analysis Galactic Center Gamma Rays week ending PRL 116, 051103 (2016) PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 5 FEBRUARY 2016 Statistical distribution appears to be more consistent with point sources (probably pulsars) week ending PRL 116, 051103 (2016) PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 5 FEBRUARY 2016 FIG. 2. (Left) Best-fit source-countLee et al. 2016 functions within 10° of the GC and b ≥ 2°, with the 3FGL sources unmasked. The median and 68% confidence intervals are shown for each of the following PS components:j j NFW (dashed, orange), thin disk (solid, blue), and isotropic (dotted, green). The number of observed 3FGL sources in each bin is indicated. The normalization for the diffuse emission in the fit is consistent with that at high latitudes, as desired. (Right) Posteriors for the flux fraction within 10° of the GC with b ≥ 2° arising from the separate PS components, with 3FGL sources unmasked. The inset shows the result of removing the NFW PS templatej j from the fit. Dashed vertical lines indicate the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles. 0.70 1.6 template is consistent with other estimates in the literature 2.5−þ0.62 %, while that attributed to NFW DM is 2.2−þ2.2 % [12,14]. The model including the NFW PS contribution is (the flux attributed to isotropic PSs is negligible). When no preferredFIG. 2. over (Left) that Best-fit without source-count by a Bayes functions factor within∼10 10°6 (for of the GCPS and templatesb ≥ 2°, are with included the 3FGL in the sources fit, the unmasked. NFW DM The template median and 68% confidence intervals are shown for each of the following PS components:j j 1.1 NFW (dashed, orange), thin disk (solid, blue), and reference, this corresponds to test statistic 2Δ ln L ≈ 36). absorbs 4.1−þ1.2 % of the total flux. As we will discuss later, isotropicWhen the (dotted, 3FGL green). sources The number are masked, of observed the NPTF 3FGL sources pro- inthis each behavior bin is indicated. agrees with The normalization expectations from for the simulated diffuse emission data. in the fit is consistent with that at high latitudes, as desired. (Right) Posteriors for the flux fraction within 10° of the GC with b 2° arising cedure yields a best-fit source-count function given by the In this statistics-limited regime, the fit does not distinguish≥ from the separate PS components, with 3FGL sources unmasked. The inset shows the result of removing the NFW PS templatej j from the orangefit. Dashed band vertical in the leftlines panel indicate of the Fig. 16th,3. Below 50th, and the 84th break, percentiles.different models for the PS distribution at high significance the source-count function agrees well with that found by (however, if we repeat the analysis using Pass 8 data up to the unmasked fit. In this case, the contributions from the June 3, 2015, corresponding to an average exposure 0.70 1.6 isotropictemplate and is consistent disk-correlated with other PS templates estimates are in negligible. the literature increase2.5−þ0.62 of%∼,30% whileand that a attributed slight improvement to NFW DM in is angular2.2−þ2.2 % The[12,14] flux. fraction The model attributed including to the the NFW NFW PS PS component contribution is is resolution,(the flux the attributed Bayes factor to isotropic in favor PSs of is NFW negligible). PSs increases When no 1.0 6 PS templates2 are4 included in the fit, the NFW DM template 5.preferred3−þ1.1 %, while over the that NFW without DM by template a Bayes absorbs factor ∼ no10 sig-(for from ∼10 to ∼10 in the 3FGL masked analysis; in the 1.1 nificantreference, flux. this corresponds to test statistic 2Δ ln L ≈ 36). 3FGLabsorbs unmasked4.1−þ1.2 % analysis,of the total the flux. Bayes As factor we will in discuss favor of later, InWhen the masked the 3FGL analysis, sources the Bayes are masked, factor for the a model NPTF that pro- NFWthis PSs behavior increases agrees from with∼10 expectations6 to ∼109), but from there simulated is still a data. containscedure yields a NFW a best-fitPS component, source-count relative function to one given that does by the strongIn this preference statistics-limited for unresolved regime, PSs. the The fit does Bayes not factor distinguish for not,orange is ∼10 band2, substantially in the left panel reduced of relative Fig. 3. to Below the result the break, for a modeldifferent with models disk and for isotropic the PS distribution PSs, relative at to high one significance with no thethe unmasked source-count case. function Masking agrees the 3FGL well with sources that removes found by PSs,(however, is ∼106, ifwhile we repeat the Bayes the factor analysis for using a model Pass with 8 data NFW, up to mostthe unmasked of the ROI fit. within In this∼5 case,° of the the GC, contributions reducing photon from the disk,June and 3, isotropic 2015, PSs, corresponding relative to one to with an no average PSs, is ∼ exposure108. statisticsisotropic markedly, and disk-correlated especially for PS any templates signal peaked are negligible. at the Theincrease Bayes factors, of ∼30% best-fitand source-count a slight improvement function parame- in angular GC.The Furthermore, flux fraction attributed in the masked to the NFW ROI, PS non-NFW component PS is ters,resolution, and DM the flux Bayes fractions factor for in favor the 3FGL of NFW masked PSs increases and templates1.0 can absorb a substantial fraction of the excess. unmasked analyses2 are4 summarized in Table I. 5.3−þ1.1 %, while the NFW DM template absorbs no sig- from ∼10 to ∼10 in the 3FGL masked analysis; in the Fornificant example, flux. if only disk and isotropic PS templates are To3FGL validate unmasked the analysis analysis, procedure, the Bayes we generate factor simulated in favor of added,In the the masked flux fraction analysis, attributed the Bayes to the factor disk for template a model is that dataNFW using PSs the increases best-fit fromparameters∼106 to from∼10 the9), butunmasked there is IG still a contains a NFW PS component, relative to one that does strong preference for unresolved PSs. The Bayes factor for 2 not, is ∼10 , substantially reduced relative to the result for a model with disk and isotropicFIG. 3. Same PSs, as relative Fig. 2, to except one with with no the unmasked case. Masking the 3FGL sources removes PSs, is ∼106, while the3FGL Bayes sources factor masked.for a model with NFW, most of the ROI within ∼5° of the GC, reducing photon disk, and isotropic PSs, relative to one with no PSs, is ∼108. statistics markedly, especially for any signal peaked at the The Bayes factors, best-fit source-count function parame- GC. Furthermore, in the masked ROI, non-NFW PS ters, and DM flux fractions for the 3FGL masked and templates can absorb a substantial fraction of the excess. unmasked analyses are summarized in Table I. For example, if only disk and isotropic PS templates are To validate the analysis procedure, we generate simulated added, the flux fraction attributed to the disk template is data using the best-fit parameters from the unmasked IG FIG. 3. Same as Fig. 2, except with 3FGL sources masked. 051103-4 051103-4 Galactic Center Gamma Rays 5 BUT: Re-analysis by Leane & Slatyer (2019) show that method might miss DM; annihilation could account for whole signal FIG. 2. Flux posteriors when an artificial DM signal with increasing normalization is injected into the Fermi data, and the data are analyzed with NFW PS, Disk PS, Isotropic PS, DM, Bubbles, Isotropic and Galactic Di↵use templates (note if any template has flux peaked below 0.1% (other than DM), it is omitted from the plots for simplicity).
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