Earners and Their Dependents in the Population in April 1948
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Earners and Their Dependents in the Population in April 1948 by JACOB FISHER* The following article is based on a recent Census Bureau male labor-force participation rate survey of the size and composition of families in the United after age 20 reflects in part the pro- States. It relates the findings to the problem of estimating gressive increase up to about age 35 the number of persons who would have certain kinds of social in the proportion of married women in insurance protection under specified conditions. the female population. The rate for single women remains relatively high OCIAL insurance programs to an dren under age 18 of persons classified at all ages. The extent to which increasing extent have been as earners: and 22 million other per- women stay in the labor market is af- S making provision for the pay- sons (table 1). The civilian popula- fected also by home responsibilities. ment of benefits to dependents or sur- tion of 145 million included 474,000 In April 1948, married women with no vivors. Estimates of beneficiaries and members of the armed forces living children under age 18 were almost costs under such programs, present off post or with families on post. twice as frequently in the labor force and proposed, necessarily involve as- Eighty-flve percent of the popula- as married women with one or more sumptions concerning the relation of tion, in other words, consisted of earn- children under 18. Among widowed the number of dependents to the num- ers and their primary dependents, and and divorced women, labor-force ber of earners. Basic sources of in- 16 percent were neither earners nor membership was more common, for formation on this relationship are the the primary dependents of earners. reasons related to age differences, for family data of the Bureau of the Cen- With such qualifications as will be women with children; for example, sus. Considerable interest attaches noted later, it may be presumed that widowed and divorced women without therefore to the averages and ratios under conditions prevailing in 1948 children under 18 were older on the to be derived from the Census Bu- a program such as national health in- average and less able to And or hold reau’s April 1948 family-composition surance, covering all earners and their jobs. The influence of sex, age, mari- survey. The purpose of the present primary dependents and with a liberal tal status, and home responsibilities article is to present the results of this earnings requirement, would afford on labor-force membership is illus- survey as they bear upon the worker- protection to some 85 percent of the trated in table 4. dependent ratio and to indicate the people in the country. To extend pro- To what extent may it be assumed changes that took place between 1940 tection to any part of the remaining that the number of earners in the and 1948 in underlying family rela- 15 percent would necessitate the es- population in a given month repre- tionships. It should be made clear tablishment of eligibility tests condi- sents the number who would qualify at the outset that the estimates of tioned on elements other than earn- earners, dependents, and insured per- ings or dependency on an earner, as Table l.-Number of earners, primary dependents, and others in the sons offered here have a general rather defined above. These proportions civilian population and percentage than a specific application. They pro- would, of course, be different under distribution, April 1948 vide a basis for an estimate of the other assumptions concerning cover- , numbers who would have certain age and eligibility requirements. kinds of social insurance protection Population groups Earners in the Population under certain conditions; they do not - /l------l- constitute estimates directly applica- Earners comprised over half the Total ________......_____._ 145,087 100 -- ble to any particular program now in population 14 years and over in April Earners *____________....._..__ 58,863 41 effect or proposed. 1948. Eight in every 10 males over ! I Primary dependents_____..___ 63,899 44 For broad social insurance analyti- 13 years of age were either working Wivesl..--..-..--.-.------- 25,136 17 cal purposes, the civilian population of or looking for work. Among men aged Children under 18 * ___._.___I 38,763 I 27 145 million in April 1948 may be di- 25-45, the ages when family responsi- Others-.--.--.---..----.------ 1 22,325 1 15 vided into three groups: 59 million bilities are heaviest, the rate of par- - 1Persons in the labor force, exGhIdingunpaid fam- earners, defined as persons in the la- ticipation in the labor force was as fly workers. bor force that month (excluding un- high as 95 percent. 2 Nonearners, married to and living with earners. s Noneamen living with an earner parent. paid family workers) ; 64 million Among women, on the other hand, Source: Estimated from Bureau of the Census, primary dependents of earners, de- membership in the labor force was Current Population Reports: Population Character- istics (Series P-20, NOS. 10,16,17,21,22 23) and Labor fined as the nonearner wives and chil- most frequent at about age 20. Force (Series P-60, Nos. 5, 11; Series P-57, No. 70). Women workers tend to drop out of Also PO elation (Series P-S, No. ZO);family-composi- *Division of Research and Statistics, tion anL! labor-force data m Sixteenth Census of the Oface of the Commissioner, Social Security the labor force at marriage or shortly United States: 1940;and unpublished data from the Bureau of the Censusrelating to the years 1940,1947, Administration. thereafter, and the decline in the fe- and 1948. Bulletin, September 1949 3 at the end of the year as insured Table 3.-Number of earners in civilian population, by number and type of workers in a social insurance current- primary dependents per earner, April 1948 risk program covering all occupations? [In thousands, except for averages] ( Since some workers employed in the month in question may not earn Primary dependents 1 Average number of the required minimum during the Primary dependents per earner, by type Earners 1 Children d&~c%%s Year, either because of unemployment Total ’ Wife per earner or because their participation in the -p-p___ labor force is seasonal in character, Total ________..._______.__.._____._....__ __._ 58,863 63,899 25,136 38,763 1.09 --I--------- this assumption could result in an No primary dependent-- .__._.. ._-___._.....__. _._ 29,390 ---.-_....’ ________..___._.._. _____..____ overstatement of the number of in- Iprimarydependent ____. __...._ -- ._._....__.. -~~ 12,538 12,538 [ 10,290 2,248 1.00 sured workers. Understatement is Wife.~-----..--.-.-..----.....---~-..-....--.-.. 10,299 10.299 10,290 _---.- ~.._ _._. ..__ implicit, on the other hand, in the Childunder .____ _________._--- ___...____..~. 2,248 2,248 _____.__-. 2,248 ;__._._...._. exclusion from the earner count of 2 primary depcndenk- _._______-. _____...._ -__-. Wifeandchild under lS..---..-...--......-.--.~ persons not in the labor force in the 2childranunderlS.~_~~.~.~~_~....-..-....~-.--. month in question but with qualifying 3ormoreprimilrgdepondents---..- . ..__ ._._.. -~~ earnings in other months of the year Wife and 2 or more children under 18___._ ._ ..___ or in some previous recent period, 3 or more children under 13._._ ___._. ___.. .._._ The extent to which these offset- 1 Seefootnotes. table 1. ting factors affect the estimates de- Source: Seetable 1. pends in part on the kind of current- risk program to which the discussion ings in most State unemployment in- year-22 percent more than in the is directed. The earnings require- surance laws at present. The discus- survey week in July and 26 percent ment for a cash benefit program- sion that follows is in terms of a more than in the survey week in April unemployment insurance or tempo- current-risk program of the service 1948. rary disability insurance-may be type, with broad coverage and a low In a current-risk program limited higher than for a service benefit pro- earnings requirement. to specified industries, the spread be- gram such as health insurance. In Two considerations are involved : tween covered employment at any one the cash benefit programs, the eligi- the relation of employment during time and covered employment during bility test is designed to qualify for the month (actually during the sur- the year is of course much greater, benefits only persons who are ordi- vey week) to employment during the because to the movement into and out narily dependent on their earnings year, and the relative number of earn- of the labor force must be added the and suffer a substantial earnings loss. ers during the year with qualifying shifts between covered and noncov- The service benefit, on the other earnings. ered employment. In 1943, for ex- hand, is not related to the wage-loss A new. series of releases by the Cen- ample, employment covered under concept and when provided in a pro- sus Bureau’ indicates that gross ad- old-age and survivors insurance was gram with broad coverage can ap- ditions to the labor force averaged 3 40 percent higher for the year as a propriately have a low earnings re- million per month in the first half of whole than for an average month in quirement. In some of the health in- 1949 and that the monthly average that year. surance bills before Congress in the of gross separations was 2.3 million. The second consideration concerns last few years, this requirement has Because of the tendency of seasonai the number of earners during the been set as low as $150 a year, or less and temporary workers to move into year who can meet the minimum than the minimum qualifying earn- and out of the labor force severa.