Earners and Their Dependents in the Population in April 1948

by JACOB FISHER* The following article is based on a recent Census Bureau male labor-force participation rate survey of the size and composition of families in the United after age 20 reflects in part the pro- States. It relates the findings to the problem of estimating gressive increase up to about age 35 the number of persons who would have certain kinds of social in the proportion of married women in insurance protection under specified conditions. the female population. The rate for single women remains relatively high OCIAL insurance programs to an dren under age 18 of persons classified at all ages. The extent to which increasing extent have been as earners: and 22 million other per- women stay in the labor market is af- S making provision for the pay- sons (table 1). The civilian popula- fected also by home responsibilities. ment of benefits to dependents or sur- tion of 145 million included 474,000 In April 1948, married women with no vivors. Estimates of beneficiaries and members of the armed forces living children under age 18 were almost costs under such programs, present off post or with families on post. twice as frequently in the labor force and proposed, necessarily involve as- Eighty-flve percent of the popula- as married women with one or more sumptions concerning the relation of tion, in other words, consisted of earn- children under 18. Among widowed the number of dependents to the num- ers and their primary dependents, and and divorced women, labor-force ber of earners. Basic sources of in- 16 percent were neither earners nor membership was more common, for formation on this relationship are the the primary dependents of earners. reasons related to age differences, for family data of the Bureau of the Cen- With such qualifications as will be women with children; for example, sus. Considerable interest attaches noted later, it may be presumed that widowed and divorced women without therefore to the averages and ratios under conditions prevailing in 1948 children under 18 were older on the to be derived from the Census Bu- a program such as national health in- average and less able to And or hold reau’s April 1948 family-composition surance, covering all earners and their jobs. The influence of sex, age, mari- survey. The purpose of the present primary dependents and with a liberal tal status, and home responsibilities article is to present the results of this earnings requirement, would afford on labor-force membership is illus- survey as they bear upon the worker- protection to some 85 percent of the trated in table 4. dependent ratio and to indicate the people in the country. To extend pro- To what extent may it be assumed changes that took place between 1940 tection to any part of the remaining that the number of earners in the and 1948 in underlying family rela- 15 percent would necessitate the es- population in a given month repre- tionships. It should be made clear tablishment of eligibility tests condi- sents the number who would qualify at the outset that the estimates of tioned on elements other than earn- earners, dependents, and insured per- ings or dependency on an earner, as Table l.-Number of earners, primary dependents, and others in the sons offered here have a general rather defined above. These proportions civilian population and percentage than a specific application. They pro- would, of course, be different under distribution, April 1948 vide a basis for an estimate of the other assumptions concerning cover- , numbers who would have certain age and eligibility requirements. kinds of social insurance protection Population groups Earners in the Population under certain conditions; they do not - /l------l- constitute estimates directly applica- Earners comprised over half the Total ______...... _____._ 145,087 100 -- ble to any particular program now in population 14 years and over in April Earners *______....._..__ 58,863 41 effect or proposed. 1948. Eight in every 10 males over ! I Primary dependents_____..___ 63,899 44 For broad social insurance analyti- 13 years of age were either working Wivesl..--..-..--.-.------25,136 17 cal purposes, the civilian population of or looking for work. Among men aged Children under 18 *___._.___ I 38,763 I 27 145 million in April 1948 may be di- 25-45, the ages when family responsi- Others-.--.--.---..----.------1 22,325 1 15 vided into three groups: 59 million bilities are heaviest, the rate of par- - 1Persons in the labor force, exGhIdingunpaid fam- earners, defined as persons in the la- ticipation in the labor force was as fly workers. bor force that month (excluding un- high as 95 percent. 2 Nonearners, married to and living with earners. s Noneamen living with an earner parent. paid family workers) ; 64 million Among women, on the other hand, Source: Estimated from Bureau of the Census, primary dependents of earners, de- membership in the labor force was Current Population Reports: Population Character- istics (Series P-20, NOS. 10,16,17,21,22 23) and Labor fined as the nonearner wives and chil- most frequent at about age 20. Force (Series P-60, Nos. 5, 11; Series P-57, No. 70). Women workers tend to drop out of Also PO elation (Series P-S, No. ZO);family-composi- *Division of Research and Statistics, tion anL! labor-force data m Sixteenth Census of the Oface of the Commissioner, Social Security the labor force at marriage or shortly United States: 1940;and unpublished data from the Bureau of the Censusrelating to the years 1940,1947, Administration. thereafter, and the decline in the fe- and 1948.

Bulletin, 3 at the end of the year as insured Table 3.-Number of earners in civilian population, by number and type of workers in a social insurance current- primary dependents per earner, April 1948 risk program covering all occupations? [In thousands, except for averages] ( Since some workers employed in the month in question may not earn Primary dependents 1 Average number of the required minimum during the Primary dependents per earner, by type Earners 1 Children d&~c%%s Year, either because of unemployment Total ’ Wife per earner or because their participation in the -p-p___ labor force is seasonal in character, Total ______...______.__.._____._....__ __._ 58,863 63,899 25,136 38,763 1.09 --I------this assumption could result in an No primary dependent-- .__._.. ._-___._.....__. _._ 29,390 ---.-_....’ ______..___._.._. _____..____ overstatement of the number of in- Iprimarydependent ____. __...._ -- ._._....__.. -~~ 12,538 12,538 [ 10,290 2,248 1.00 sured workers. Understatement is Wife.~-----..--.-.-..----.....---~-..-....--.-.. 10,299 10.299 10,290 _---.- ~.._ _._. . . ..__ implicit, on the other hand, in the Childunder .______._--- ___...____..~. 2,248 2,248 _____.__-. 2,248 ;__._._...._. exclusion from the earner count of 2 primary depcndenk- _.______-. _____...._ -__-. Wifeandchild under lS..---..-...--...... -.--.~ persons not in the labor force in the 2childranunderlS.~_~~.~.~~_~....-..-....~-.--. month in question but with qualifying 3ormoreprimilrgdepondents---..- . ..__ ._._.. -~~ earnings in other months of the year Wife and 2 or more children under 18___._ ._ ..___ or in some previous recent period, 3 or more children under 13._._ ___._. ___.. . .._._ The extent to which these offset- 1 Seefootnotes. table 1. ting factors affect the estimates de- Source: Seetable 1. pends in part on the kind of current- risk program to which the discussion ings in most State unemployment in- year-22 percent more than in the is directed. The earnings require- surance laws at present. The discus- survey week in July and 26 percent ment for a cash benefit program- sion that follows is in terms of a more than in the survey week in April unemployment insurance or tempo- current-risk program of the service 1948. rary disability insurance-may be type, with broad coverage and a low In a current-risk program limited higher than for a service benefit pro- earnings requirement. to specified industries, the spread be- gram such as health insurance. In Two considerations are involved : tween covered employment at any one the cash benefit programs, the eligi- the relation of employment during time and covered employment during bility test is designed to qualify for the month (actually during the sur- the year is of course much greater, benefits only persons who are ordi- vey week) to employment during the because to the movement into and out narily dependent on their earnings year, and the relative number of earn- of the labor force must be added the and suffer a substantial earnings loss. ers during the year with qualifying shifts between covered and noncov- The service benefit, on the other earnings. ered employment. In 1943, for ex- hand, is not related to the wage-loss A new. series of releases by the Cen- ample, employment covered under concept and when provided in a pro- sus Bureau’ indicates that gross ad- old-age and survivors insurance was gram with broad coverage can ap- ditions to the labor force averaged 3 40 percent higher for the year as a propriately have a low earnings re- million per month in the first half of whole than for an average month in quirement. In some of the health in- 1949 and that the monthly average that year. surance bills before Congress in the of gross separations was 2.3 million. The second consideration concerns last few years, this requirement has Because of the tendency of seasonai the number of earners during the been set as low as $150 a year, or less and temporary workers to move into year who can meet the minimum than the minimum qualifying earn- and out of the labor force severa. earnings requirement for insured times during the year, an estimat.e status. Table 2.-Number of earners and Data on the distribution of earners number of primary dependents in of the number of additional workers the civilian population, by number during the year based on the sum of by amount of earnings are not avail- of primary dependents per earner, monthly accessions to the labor force able for recent years, but what evi- April 1948 would exaggerate the number of per- dence there is suggests that in a [Number in thousands] sons making such shifts. There is Program with broad coverage and a little doubt, however, that a sizable low earnings requirement, several mil- group is involved. The month with lion more persons than the number the highest level of employment in of earners shown in table 1 would 19,48, for example, was July, when 59 acquire insured status in the course milhon persons were working for pay of a year. Of the civilian population Total ___._...____ 58,863 100 63,899 100 or profit, whereas it has been esti- of 145 million in April 1948, probably -~-__ mated that approximately 72 million at least 61-63 million should be classi- 0 ..______... ..~~ . . . . 29,390 50 _-.._ -__I______l_.__-- _____....~~ . . . . 12,538 21 12.538 ’ Persons had ea.rnings during that fied as insured earners for such 2_...... __... -.-__.~.. I 7,524 !I! 13 15.048 E 3 or more _.._-.---... 9,411 16 38.313 57 a program, rather than 69 million, raising the percent of the population lBureau of the Census, Gross Changes 1 Seefootnotes, table 1. in the Labor Force (Current Population so classified from 41 to 43 or 44 percent. Source: See tabIe 1. Reports, Labor Force, Series P-59). This adjustment wouId not necessarily

4 Social Security Table 4.-Percent of civilian population aged 14 years and over in labor force,’ insurance bills. These three classes by age, sex, and marital status of women, April 1948 of dependents in 1948 may have num- bered 5 million or more persons, all of whom are classified in table 1 as - Sex, marital status of women, and number of children -___ - “other persons.” under age 18 65 and Total 14-17 18-24 25-44 4564 over The number of primary dependents, _-__- although it is limited to wives and f,o Total ____.______.-- -____...-.- . . .._ -- _... 56 26 61 63 61 26 children under age 18, does not in- I I -- _- Male~~~..~~.~~~~~...~~~~~~....--~...~~-~-...-.-~~.~~~-. 82 35 79 95 clude all persons in these two classes, Three out of 4 wives in April 1948 Fernele.------.--.--....----.~.---.....-.-~-.-...... -- 2 17 46 Single______._._... ___.. _..._..._...... __ ii were dependent on earner husbands, Married, husband present. __. _ . .._.._...... __ 22 2 25 Nochildrenunderl8-.--.--- _...... _. _...... 28 .-‘1. . ..___ __.-._-. but 20 percent were earners them- 1 or more children under 18..___....._._..._-.....-. 17 ____.... _..._.... ._____. selves and 6 percent were nonearners Othermaritalstatus--.--.----.-...... --.....-. 49 8 No childrenunder 18..---.-.-...... --...-.-...... ii -2. married to retired or disabled men. lormorechildrenunderlB.-..-.....--..-.--..-.... 56 ___ _. -.. __. ,_ -. _.__ - L - The proportion of children under age * The number of ersons in the labor force is larger than the number of persons classified as “earners” in 18 dependent on earner parents-86 the other tables in t 1.1s senes becausethe labor force includes unpaid family workers, who numbered 1,661,OoO percent-was higher than that for in April 1948. dependent wives ; 4 percent were earn- Source: Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports: Pop~lntion Characteristics(Series P-20, Xos. 22, 23) and Labor Force (Series P-50, No. 11; Series P-57, No. 70); and unpublished data. ers and 10 percent were neither earn- ers nor living with an earner parent change the population ratio of 85 per- earners plus primary dependents is (table 5). cent referred to earlier as the probable accordingly a more reliable guide to Not all earners had primary de- coverage of a social insurance current- the coverage of a social insurance pendents. Twenty-nine million earn- risk program taking in all earners and’ system taking in all earners and ers in April 1948, or half the total, had their primary dependents. Those who their primary dependents than the no primary dependents. A little more move into and out of the labor force 41-percent ratio for earners or the than 1 in 5 earners had one primary during the course of the year are ordi- 44-percent ratio for their primary dependent: 1 in 8 had two, and 1 in 6 narily the primary dependents of dependents, taken separately. had three or more primary depend- other earners. Of the 5.8 million non- ents. Because of this uneven distri- members of the labor force in both Primary Dependents in the bution, more than half the primary and Population dependents in the country were at- who worked for pay or profit at some tached to earners with three or more time during the year, for example, 1.2 The foregoing considerations would such dependents (table 2). million were children under 18 years indicate that some of the 64 million The typical dependent of an earner of age and 2.7 million were women primary dependents of earners in the with one primary dependent was a engaged in keeping house, most of population in April 1948, as shown in wife. Wives exceeded children as pri- whom may well have been wives of table 1, should be classified as earn- mary dependents among one-depend- earners. Half the gross additions to ers if employment during the year ent earners almost 5 to 1. There were and separations from the labor force were taken into account. On the somewhat more children than wives, in the period February- were other hand, the 64 million figure does however, among earners with two pri- women engaged in keeping house not include certain relatives who were mary dependents. Among earners when not in the labor force; of the supported in whole or part by earn- gross additions about one-third were ers and who would be eligible for bene- Table 5.-Number and percentage persons aged 14 to 19 years. The fits under another definition of distribution of wives and children dependent. Disabled children 18 under 18 in the civilian population. probable understatement of the num- by status as earner, primary de- ber of earners resulting from the years of age or over, disabled hus- pendent, or other person, April 1948 bands, and nonworking parents sup- exclusion of most seasonal and occa- [Numbers in thousands] sional workers is thus compensated to ported by their children because they some extent by a probable overstate- cannot qualify for age or disability Children ment of the number of primary benefits for one reason or another are Classi6cat~ionof wives under 18 dependents.’ The 85-percent ratio of eligible for dependents’ benefits in and of children un- , some foreign social insurance sys- 2 Bureau of the Census, Work Experience tems, and are proposed for inclusion I- l-l-i- of the Population in 1947 and Work Ex- as beneficiaries under pending health perience of the Population in 1948 (Cur- rent Population Reports, Labor Force, bility requirements that permitted work- Series P-50, No. 8 and No. 15). ers to qualify on the basis of earnings 3Some understatement is also involved during the past several years-as is the in the exclusion from the earner count of case in some health insurance proposals- persons who have retired from the labor additional persons would have insured 1 IGarried, husband present; 133,000dependent force but who retain insured status on status. These two groups could account wives under age 18 are included in both columns. the basis of earnings in the previous year. for a million or more of the 22 million 2 Seefootnotes, table 1. If a program included alternative eligi- persons classified as “others” in table 1. Source: Seetable 1.

Bulletin, September 1949 5 with three or more primary depend- Table 6.-Number of persons in the civilian population neither earners nor ents, children outnumbered wives al- primary dependents,’ by age, sex, and marital status of women, April 1948 most 3 to 1 (table 31. [In thousemisl -Primary dependents, in the aggre- Persons neither earners nor rimary dependents, by age, sex, and gate, exceeded the number of earners marita Pstatus of women by approximately 9 percent (table 31. The greater number of primary de- Total--- ______.__.______..._.._.______22,325 4,393 10,764 7,258 --- pendents reflects the influence of the Under 18 years______.______...... ______._____._. 4.303 4,393 .- ______... ..------rural family. Data on which to base In families, neither parent an earner . .._____...... __._._-----..- 2,525 2,625 ._.______..____..-- Others.--.....-.-..-.--.------.-.-.-.....--.------.-.-.-... 1,778 1,778 .------estimates of urban-rural differences 18 years and over ______._._.....--.------.-...-...... - .. 18,022 ______10,764 7, ZB are not available for 1948, but 1940 In school______...... ______._...__._ .. 2,260 .------_ 2,260 _____----- census materials suggest that in cities Others.-----.--.------.-...... ---.---.-.- ...... 15,762 .______8,504 7,268 Male- ______--...... _._._...... _.__ ...... 5,801 ------2,912 2,889 and towns there are somewhat fewer Female. ______._.---.------.-... --- ___._....._ -~ 9,961 ______5,592 4,“9; Married, husband present____._ _.______. --.-___-- _..._... 2,188 .- ______1,274 primary dependents than earners, Single___.______--.- .___ _..______.____--______.._.... 1,879 ______whereas primary dependents are half Widowed ______-_.- .__.______.______._____..__.._ 4,732 ..______. 1,7971,473 2,% Divorced, or married, husband absent____ ---___- _._. ----... 1,162 .______1,048 114 again as numerous as earners in the rural population. 1 See footnotes, table 1. Source: See table 1. “Other” Persons in the Population tending school in April 1948 and not Women who were neither earners in the labor force numbered 2.3 mil- nor married to earners comprised the The 22 million individuals in April lion. (Another half million or so in largest of the four groups of “other” 1948 counted neither as earners nor school but working 15 hours or more persons. They numbered 10 million as the primary dependents of earners a week are classified by the Bureau of in April 1948, almost half the total. are, with the exception of recently re- the Census as in the labor force and One-Afth of the women were single, tired workers and their dependents are included in table 1 as earners and three-fifths were widowed, sepa- as well as the survivors of recently rather than as “other” persons.) Data rated, or divorced. The remaining deceased workers, persons who would for 1947 suggest that school attend- fifth, a little more than 2 million, were fall outside the protection of a cur- ance was slightly more frequent in married to men not in the labor force. rent-risk program in which eligibility urban than in rural areas and among Well over half the husbands in these for benefit is based on current or re- men than among women; the school couples were 65 years of age and over. cent earnings or on dependency on attended was at the college or pro- Whether single, married, widowed, earners as wife or child. fessional level in 2 out of 3 cases. or divorced, the 10 million women Four major groups may be distin- Most of the 6 million men not in classified as “others” were engaged for guished within this segment of the the labor force for reasons other than the most part in keeping house for population: children under age 18; school attendance were handicapped themselves or for husband, father, persons 18 years and over attending in earning a living by age or physical children, or other relatives. About 3 school; men out of the labor force or mental impairments: half of them out of 4 were past age 50; 44 per- because of age or disability; and wom- were under age 65. In 1940 the pro- cent were 65 years of age or over. en who have never been in the labor portion of the male population living Some had worked at an earlier age, force or who have left it because of in an institution or unable to work be- but perhaps half or more had never disability or other reasons and who cause of disability was 2 percent at been in the labor force. are not married to men in the labor ages 18 and 19, rising progressively Age, disability, and death of the force (table 6). thereafter to 14 percent at ages 60 family earner are the barriers which Of the 4.3 million children under 18 to 64. After age 65 it becomes in- would keep several million persons years of age in this classification, 1.4 creasingly difllcult to distinguish be- outside the protection of a current- million were living with the mother in tween nonmembership in the labor risk social security system. such as a family setting characterized by the force by reason of disability and non- health insurance, covering earners death or absence of the father. Al- membership by reason of age. The and their primary dependents, while though they were more numerous than eligibility age for retirement benefit for other millions the barriers would in 1940, only about half the widowed in old-age and survivors insurance is be household responsibilities or school or divorced mothers with children set by statute at 65 years, but some attendance. The Arst group in April under 18 years were in the labor force earners reach a terminal point in their 1948 numbered 1’7 million; the second, in April 1948. The remaining 2.9 mil- working life at an earlier age and about 5 million. lion children consisted of 1.1 million many reach that point several years It is sometimes suggested that living with a father not in the labor later. Whether the transition from health insurance benefits should be force because of age or disability, 1 one status to another is due to age or made available to persons receiving million living with relatives, and a to disability is often a wholly subjec- old-age, survivors, and extended dis- little more than 800,000 living with tive judgment or is determined arbi- ability benefits, and to their depend- nonrelatives or in a nonfamily setting. trarily by the eligibility requirements ents. In April 1948, beneficiaries of Persons aged 18 years and over at- of the retirement system. the old-age and survivors insurance,

6 Social Security Table I.-Earners, primary dependents. and others in the population, April was the result of several influences. 1940 and April 1948 The war and postwar boom in mar- [Numbers in thousands] riages raised the number of married women 20 percent-or about twice the relative increase in total population. Population groups, by age, sex, and marital status of WOUXU age No increase took place, however, in Percent change the number of dependent wives rela -~ tive to the total population, since the Total population :______131,669 100 146,087 100 +10.2 -. -- -- more rapid growth in the number of EarnersI:-e ______.______61,323 68,863 working wives restricted the percent- Male ______._..._..______38, co6 iti 422,642 ii -7:; Female____.______._.______12,417 16,221 11 $33:; age gain in dependent wives to the Married, husband present...... ___...._.______3, .B7 3” 6,966 Other~~~.~.~~~-.~~~.~~~---~-...-.~-...---~~~~~~~~~ 8,3$ 9,256 .i +4: 2 lo-percent increase experienced by 14-17____ -.-______.._ -_- ___... ---__-.-.-- .______: 1,775 the total population. 1864.~~-..~..~~-.~.._-~..-.~~~~...-....~.-.~...-.~~~ 48,365 37 “2 “7;: 3E EE 65 and over ______._...... ____.. 2,083 2 , +33: 0 Similar offsetting factors operated Primarydependents’---- ______.. -._- ._._____.__--___ 44 +11.5 to reduce the increase in the relative +s. 8 Children.-_--....--.------...------.---.-...-.~. ;: +12.7 number of dependent children. The total number of children under age Others______._.._____.______23,942 15 -3.1 18 went up 10 percent, or at the same Primary dependents per earner ______1.12 I------1q “Z - - _._. ,_ _ _. _ - _ - __ rate as the total population. With I relatively more widowed and divorced 1 Data for 1940include the 267,ooOmembers of the armed form stationed in the United Ststeqfor 1943the data include 474,999members of the armed forces living off post or with families on post. Famly-composi- mothers at work in 1948 and more tion data limited to the civilian population are not available for either 1949or 1943. 1 See footnotes, table 1. partially handicapped fathers in the Source: April 1940data estimated from labor-force and family-composition volumes in Siztcenth Cmsw of labor force, one would have expected the U. 8.: lLl40. April 1943data froth sources cited in table 1. a substantial rise in the relative num- railroad retirement, and government labor force, the proportion of earners ber of dependent children. A greater- retirement programs and their de- in the population went up from 39 than-average increase did occur, but pendents numbered perhaps X5-3.0 percent in 1940 to 41 percent in 1948. the very large gain in the number of million. In time, and particularly if The ratio of primary dependents was earners aged 14-17 kept it from going the coverage of old-age and survivors the same in both years-44 percent- higher than 13 percent. insurance were broadened and disabil- but the ratio of “other” persons The decline in the number of ity protection added, a substantial dropped from 1’7 to 15 percent. E&n- “other” persons, absolute as well as proportion of the “other” group might ers and primary dependents as a per- relative, resulted from shifts into the qualify for health insurance benefits cent of total population rose from 83 earner and primary dependent groups. on this basis. to 85 percent. Because the number of Expanded employment opportunities earners increased somewhat more reduced by one-fifth the number of 1940-48 Changes . rapidly than the number of primary men aged 18 to 64 years who were The dependents, the number of primary neither earners nor students. The data discussed thus far reflect high marriage rate in the 1940’s and the situation at one point in time- dependents per earner fell from 1.12 to 1.09 (table 7). the increased participation by women April 1948. How stable are the rela- in the labor force resulted in a de- tionships they disclose? What may The growth in the proportion of crease of 26 percent in the number be the influence of population changes earners in the population reflected in of single women 18 years and older and shifts in economic conditions on part a higher median age in 1948 and, who were neither earners nor stu- the relative number of persons who what is more significant, the shift dents. A decline of 11 percent took are earners or the dependents of earn- from large-scale unemployment in place in the number of nonworking ers, on the dependent-earner ratio, 1940 to full employment in 1948, as widowed and divorced women with and on other measures of population well as the more frequent presence in children under 18. The more frequent composition sign&ant for social in- the labor force in 1948 of persons not labor-force membership of partially surance analytical purposes? ordinarily seeking employment. The handicapped fathers and of widowed Between April 1940 and April 1948 number of male earners aged 18 to 64 mothers meant that 29 percent fewer the number of persons in the labor rose 8 percent, only a little more than children under 18 were living in force, excluding unpaid family work- the rate of growth in the total num- families with neither parent an ber of men in this age group. On the ers, increased 15 percent, and the earner. number of wives and children under other hand, the number of children The rise from 83 to 85 percent in age 18 dependent on such workers, 12 14 to 17 years who were earners in- the proportion of earners and Pri- creased 90 percent, the number of percent. The number of persons nei- mary dependents in the population earners aged 65 years and over rose ther earners nor the primary depend- understates the true magnitude of the ents of earners, as defined, declined 33 percent, while married women change in this ratio between 1940 and earners almost doubled in number. 3 percent. Since the total population 1948, since it does not take into ac- gain over these 8 years was 10 percent, The lack of change in the ratio of or less than the rate of growth in the primary dependents in the population (Continued on page 18)

Bulletin, September 1949 7 Table 2.-Contributions and taxes under selected social Table 3.-Federal appropriations and expenditures under insurance and related programs, by specified period, Social Security Administration programs, by specified 1947-49 oeriod. 194850 [In thousands] [In thousands]

Retirement, disabiIity, am Unemployment insurance survivors insurance I Item Expendi-’ Eupendi- 4ppra- L”FS APPra- tures Rail- / through pria- ’ through road ty;2ss‘, / JUlY tions 1 July Period State un- Federal u~;;N$- 19482 19492 em,P,11OE;-unem- ______ment I------contri- ezi lmur- Tocal ______._...___..._...-.... [%I,604,6401 $195,963~$1,991,956~ .$212,978 butions 1 tribu- butions 3 taxes 1 ance tions 1 plopeerOrn- contri- butions Federal Security Agency, Social Security Administration...... 45,332 3,803 53,854 3,322 Department of Commerce, Bu- $145,148 reau of the Census- _.- 102 8 102 9,816 Departmerlt of the Teasury J-.-.. (4) 1.084 (9 *,15!: Grants to States_._._. -__- -..-- 9499.750, 143,937 1, 193,090 151,819 JUlY...... 63,057 J 112.097 1.586 _____-- August _...... _.. --.. 379.573 152.242 12.924 c! Unemployment insurance and September __..--_ 7.968 10.978 242 12 employment service adminis- October-m. . . .._ 58,804 35,185 1,653 tration..~...... ---..-.---.-.. 64,524 35,266 November-.. _... 357,617 176.088 12.336 2.40; Old-ageassistance~.~..... -.- 57,957 87,088 December._..._ -- . .._ 7,OHZ 8.707 1,531 3 Aidtotheblind ____~-..-.-...-.. 1,845 2,694 Aid to dependent children..-.-.. 16,451 24,799 1949 Malcrnal and child health serv- January...... 38 039 14,492 2.5F4 ices...... ~~~~~...... 1,353: 11,ooO 653 February.~~..~.~~.~ .~ 279.829 152,784 19 Services for crippled children.... 1,250’ 7.500 483 March ...... _...... 25,937 9.032 2.495 Child welfare services--. ..-.- 542 3.500 835 April . ..-...... _...... 75.191 3.098 6 Emergency maternity and infant May ...... _...... 391,411 11,423 caTe.-.-...... --.-..-.--..-.-.. 15 ._..-_.... -_--...-__ June...... _...... 5.806 1.i18. 2,2& July...... - ...... 57.549 4.589’ 1 BeneAt payments, old-age and sur- I sivorsinsurance- ~~...- $607,036/ 6 46,962 7 745.000 6 55,859 Reconversion unemployment bene- 1 Represents contributions of employees and employers in employments fitsforseamen...- . . . . --._-.--..- 2,429 164-.----.__. 213 covered by old-age and survivors insurance. 1 Represents employee and Government contributions to the civil-serrice - Canal Zone, and Alaska Railroad retirement and disability funds; in recent 1 Excludes unexpended balance of appropriations for preceding fiscal year. years Government contributions are made in 1 month for the entire fiscal year. 2 Includes expenditures from unexpended balance of appropriations for pre- 3 Represents deposits in State clearing acconnts of contributions plus penal- ceding fiscal year. ties and interest collected from employers and, in 2 States, contributions from 3 Bmounts expended by the Treasury in administering title II of the Social employees; excludes mntribotions collected for deposit in State sicknessinsur- Security Act and the Federal Insurdnce Contributions ACE, reimbursed from ance flmds. Data reported by State agencies; corrected t.o 4ug. 19, 1949. the old-age and survivors insurance trust fund to the general fund of the Treas- ‘Represents taxes paid by employers under the Federal Unemployment WY. Tax Act.. 4 Not available becausenot separated from appropriations for other purposes. 0 Represents July contribntions of $17.3million from employees, and contri- 5 appropriation for 194748-$3 million--available until June 30, 1949. butions for fiscal year 194-49 of $235.4million from the Federal Qovernment 1 Actual pnymentd from the old-age and survivors insurance trust fund. and $2.0million from the District of Columbia for certain District government : Estimated expenditures as shown in 1949-50budget. employees. Source: Federal appropriation acts and 1349-50budget (appropriations) ; Dailp Stakment o/the K S. Treasvry and reports from administrative agencies Source: Daily Slalemenl of the I% S. Twaswy mxlessotherwise noted. (expenditures!.

EARNERS AND DEPENDENTS showed a decline of 15 percent. The Summary (Continued from page 7) proportion of earners of $150 or more Persons protected by a social insur- count the difference in the extent to in the population increased possibly ance current-risk program limited to which employment was actually avail- from some 36 to 41 percent, but the earners and their dependent wives and able to the labor force. Unemploy- relative number of primary depend- children under age 18, but covering all ment in 1948 averaged only 2 million ents remained at the same level, employments and having a low earn- monthly; by prewar standards, earn- namely, 44 percent. The two groups ings requirement, would have com- ings were high. In 1940, on the other combined represented 80 percent of prised froln 80 to 85 percent of the hand, unemployment averaged 8 mil- the population in 1940 and 85 percent population in 1940-48, the ratio vary- lion and earnings were low. Esti- in 1948.’ ing with economic conditions. mates made in the Division of The variation in the ratio is ac- Research and Statistics in another *fir other estimates of zhe earner- counted for primarily by differences connection suggest that perhaps 47 dependent ratio and of the distribution in the proportion of earners. As em- million persons in the population in of earners by number of dependents, ployment and business opportunities April 1940 had earnings of $150 or based on the 1940 census, see Jacob Fisher, increased during the decade, the rela- more in 1939 and that the primary “Earners and Dependents in Urban Fami- tive number of persons qualifying as lies in Relation to Family Income,” Social dependents of such earners numbered Security Bulletin, April 1047: Marvin earners also increased but not the 58 million. On this basis, the number Bloom, “The Dependents of Workers: relative number of primary depend- of earners increased 26 percent be- Selected Data on Numbers and Types,” ents, which remained fairly stable (44 tween 1940 and 1948, primary de- Social Security Bulletin, : percent in both 1940 and 1948). Some and Workers and Dependents in Urban pendents were 10 percent more nu- Families (Bureau of Research and Statis- persons formerly dependent upon merous, while the “other” category tics Memorandum No. 64). . earners became earners in their own

18 Social Security Table I.-Estimated pay rolls in employment covered by selected programs 1 in relation to civilian wages and salaries, by specified period, 1938-49 [Corrected to Sept. 9,1949]

Wages and salaries 2 Pay rolls covered by-

Railroad re- Period Old-age and State unem- tirement and Total Civilian 3 survivors pl0yment unemploy- insurance 1 insurance 3 ment insur- ance 6

Amount (in millions)

Calendar year: 1938.._.._...... _.__------.-...... --.--.-...... -.-.--...... - ...... S$ ;;; 8;; ;;; $29,026 1939...... _...------.-...... -.-..-.- ...... ___-...... _.._...... 32,222 23‘2: “% 1940...... -.-.-----..-...... -.----..-...... -.---...... - ...... _ 49:587 48:996 35,668 32:450 2:273 1941...... _.___.____--...-...... -....-..-...... ------...... --- - ._...... 61,708 59,846 45,463 42,146 2,687 1942.._ .. ._. ..- ...... -...-.- -...... -----.- ...... ___...... _ ._--_. ... . 81.681 75,396 58,219 54,796 3,382 1943...... _...... _._.__--...-.-...... ---.--.-...-....-....- ...... _ _ __..... 105,328 90,850 69,653 66,117 4,085 1944.._____. .__..._...... _._.----...---.-.....------..-...-...--- - .._ ... _._.._. _..... 117,076 96,370 73,349 69,139 4,507 1945...______.._._...... _...._._. -___-__...... ___.__.....-. .. ._..._ ...... ____._.._ 117,541 95,064 71,560 66,642 4,514 1946....__.___._ ...... _ __ ._.._._...... _---...... -_- .____...... _ ...... 111,741 103,979 79,260 73,402 4.866 1947...._.______...... _._.._ ...... ___...... _. _...... _...... 122,164 118,28i 92,600 86,596 5, 107 1948.._...... _ .. ______...... ---- .- -...... _ ...... _ ...... _.._ .. 135,255 131,345 103,000 95,741 5,485 1948 January-March...... _. -_- _...... _. -_- _...... _.._...... _..___.... 31,634 30,691 24,200 22,495 1,348 April-June...... ______._...... _._.- ...... _...._ ...... _.__ ...... _. .._._ .... 32,697 31,742 24,800 23,047 1,318 July-September . .._____._...... _...... _..-...... __._...... 34,192 33,212 25.900 23,983 1,391 October-December- _. __._ .__._...... _..._ ._ ...... _...... __...... _ .. .___.._. .-._ .__. 36,732 35,700 28,100 26,217 1,428 1949 January-March ___.. ._ .___.__._ _.-.. . ..-. ._ ..-.. .___.__ ._ 33,669 32,639 24,500 (3 1.300

Percent of civilian wages and salaries

Calendar year: 1938._ ...... _.._._._..._.__...... --- ...... _...._...... _...... _. 100.0 68.4 61.7 4.8 1939..__...... -...-.--..--...... -.--...... _.__...... _ ...... _ 100.0 71.1 64.1 4.8 1940...... ~.~.~~~~~...~...~...... ~.~~~~...... ~.~~.~...... ~~ ...... 100.0 72.8 66.2 4.6 1941...... ~..~~...... ~.~~~.~...... ~ ...... _ __.-...... 100.0 76.0 Xl.4 4.5 1942._..._ ...... ______...... _..__ _...... ____...... __. _...... 100.0 77.2 72.7 4.5 1943...______....._...... _...... -.-....----...... ~~.~..--.-...... ~~~ ...... _.._ .. 100.0 76.7 72.8 1944...... _~_.____ .. -_.-.-._-...... _...._.____...-. _...... __._...... __.__...... --. 100.0 76.1 71.7 2:: 1945...... ___...... ___...... _____...... ____...... __. 100.0 75.3 70.1 4. 7 1946... .._...... _. __...... --...... _ ...... _.___...... 100.0 i6.2 70.6 4.7 1947...... _.....______...... -.....---- .- -_-.-.-. .._._ _...... _._____...... _.:. 100.0 78.3 73.2 4.3 1948.._ ...... -._._...______...... ----- ...... __ ...... _.__...... _. 100.0 78.4 72.9 4. 2 1948 January-March...-...... -.---...--...... -.--.---...... -.--- ...... 100.0 78.9 73.3 4.4 April-June.. . .._...._._...... ---.-..-.....-...... - - __...... _.___ _. .._...... _. 100.0 78.1 72.6 4.2 July-September...... ---.-.----...... -.----...... -..-.- ...... _ 100.0 78.0 72.2 4.2 October-December..~~...... ~.~.~~~~~~...... ~.~~~~~~~~...... ~.~~~~~~...... ~.~ 100.0 78.7 73.4 4.0 1949 January-March .__..._..._._._.____----.-...... -.------._...._._.______----- ______100.0 75.1 (7) 4.3 - I - 1Includes data for Alaska and Hawaii. Pay rolls covered by State unemploy- 1 Taxable wages plus nontaxable wages earned in employment covered by pro. ment insurance programs in these 2 Territories have ranged from $18million to gram; excludes earnings of railroad workers covered by State laws through June $78miilion a quarter. 1939. Data for 1948and 1949preliminary. 2 Total represents estimated wages and salaries paid in cash and in kind in ccn- 6 Taxable wages plus nontaxable wages in excess of $300a month. Data for tinental United States and, in addition, pay of Federal civdian and military per- 1948and 1949preliminary. sonnelin all other areas; civilian wagesandsalaries includeemployee contribut:ons 7 Not available. tc social insurance and related programs. 3 Quarterly data adjusted to correct for distribution of bonus payments. Source: Data on wages and salaries from the Office of Business Economics, 4 Taxable wages plus estimated nontaxable wages in excessof $3,000earned in Department of Commerce; data 0x1pay rolls for selected programs based on re- employment coverod by program. ports of administrative agencies.

right in 1948, on either a full-time or The more frequent employment of primary dependents consist in the occasional basis, but this loss to the wives and children of earners in good main of individuals not in the labor dependent group was made up by the times is reflected in a drop in the num- force because of age or disability, their addition of persons dependent on indi- ber of primary dependents per earner. dependents, the survivors of deceased viduals shifting from the nonearner Under conditions prevailing in 1940. workers, adult students, and single to the earner class as employment this ratio was 1.12; in 1948 it was 1.09. women engaged for the most part in levels rose. Persons neither earners nor their keeping house for relatives.

Bulletin, September 1949 19