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Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More Information Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Global Capital and National Governments To what extent do international financial market pressures influence or con- strain government policy choices? Global Capital and National Governments suggests that international financial integration does not mean the end of social democratic welfare policies. Capital market openness allows investors to react swiftly and severely to government policy, but in the developed world, capi- tal market participants consider only a few government policies when making decisions. Governments that conform to capital market pressures in macroeco- nomic areas remain relatively unconstrained in supply-side and microeconomic policy areas. Therefore, despite financial globalization, cross-national policy di- vergence among advanced democracies remains likely. Still, in the developing world, the influence of financial markets on government policy autonomy is more pronounced. The risk of default renders market participants willing to consider a range of government policies. This conclusion, however, must be tempered with an awareness that governments retain choices. As evidence for its conclusions, Global Capital and National Governments draws on interviews with fund managers, quantitative analyses, and archival investment banking materials. Layna Mosley is the Thomas J. and Robert T. Rolfs Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Her research interests include the impact of global capital markets on policy choices, the governance of international financial flows, and the politics of European financial integration. Mosley received her Ph.D. in Political Science from Duke University in 1999. © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics General Editor Margaret Levi University of Washington, Seattle Assistant General Editor Stephen Hanson University of Washington, Seattle Associate Editors Robert H. Bates Harvard University Peter Hall Harvard University Peter Lange Duke University Helen Milner Columbia University Frances Rosenbluth Yale University Susan Stokes University of Chicago Sidney Tarrow Cornell University Other Books in the Series Stefano Bartolini, The Political Mobilization of the European Left, 1860–1980: The Class Cleavage Mark Beissinger, Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State Nancy Bermeo, ed., Unemployment in the New Europe Carles Boix, Political Parties, Growth and Equality: Conservative and Social Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy Catherine Boone, Merchant Capital and the Roots of State Power in Senegal, 1930–1985 Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective Valerie Bunce, Leaving Socialism and Leaving the State: The End of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia Ruth Berins Collier, Paths Toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America Donatella della Porta, Social Movements, Political Violence, and the State Robert F. Franzese, Macroeconomic Policies of Developed Democracies Gerald Easter, Reconstructing the State: Personal Networks and Elite Identity List continues on page following the Index. © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Global Capital and National Governments LAYNA MOSLEY University of Notre Dame © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City Cambridge University Press Th e Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 8ru, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521521628 © Layna Mosley 2003 Th is publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2003 Reprinted 2006 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data Mosley, Layna. Global capital and national governments. Layna Mosley. p. cm. – (Cambridge studies in comparative politics) Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn-13: 978-0-521-81521-5 – isbn-10: 0-521-52162-9 (pb.) 1. Capital market – Government policy. 2. Finance – Government policy. 3. International fi nance – Government policy. I. Title. II. Series. hg4523 .m67 2002 332 – dc21 2002023442 isbn 978-0-521-81521-5 Hardback isbn 978-0-521-52162-8 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Information regarding prices, travel timetables, and other factual information given in this work is correct at the time of fi rst printing but Cambridge University Press does not guarantee the accuracy of such information thereafter. © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information For my parents, Janie and Steve Mosley © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Contents List of Figures and Tables page xi Acknowledgments xv 1 NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AND GLOBAL CAPITAL: A RECASTING 1 2 FINANCIAL MARKET INFLUENCE ON GOVERNMENT POLICY: THEORY AND HYPOTHESES 25 3 FINANCIAL MARKET INFLUENCE IN DEVELOPED NATIONS: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT 50 4 FINANCIAL MARKET–GOVERNMENT RELATIONS IN EMERGING MARKETS 102 5 POLITICS MEETS MARKETS: DOMESTIC RESPONSES TO FINANCIAL MARKET PRESSURES 157 6 ALTERNATIVE DOMESTIC RESPONSES: CHANGES TO FINANCIAL MARKET–GOVERNMENT RELATIONS 199 7 HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? FINANCIAL MARKETS AND NATIONAL GOVERNMENT POLICIES BEFORE THE FIRST WORLD WAR 249 8 FINANCIAL MARKET–GOVERNMENT RELATIONS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY 304 ix © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Contents APPENDIX 2.1: FINANCIAL MARKET INTERVIEWS 321 APPENDIX 3.1: DATA DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES 323 APPENDIX 3.2: FULL RESULTS FOR MACROINDICATORS MODEL 326 APPENDIX 4.1: THE COMPONENTS OF THE SDDS 327 APPENDIX 4.2: RATING AGENCY METHODOLOGIES 330 APPENDIX 4.3: RATING AGENCY OUTCOMES, 1997 333 APPENDIX 6.1: NATIONS IN CAPITAL CONTROLS DATA SET 337 References 339 Index 373 x © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Figures and Tables Figures 1.1 A Causal Model of Financial Market–Government Relations page 15 2.1 Institutional Investors’ Assets as a Percentage of GDP 27 2.2 Institutional Investors’ Assets, by Instrument, 1998 28 3.1 Inflation Trends, Select OECD Nations 75 3.2 Government Budget Balance, Select OECD Nations 77 3.3 Government Partisanship, Interest Rates, and Policy Indicators, 1981–1995 81 3.4 Government Debt Levels, Select OECD Nations 88 3.5 General Government Outlays, Select OECD Nations 93 3.6 Government Tax Revenue, Select OECD Nations 93 3.7 General Government Consumption, Select OECD Nations 95 3.8 Public Health Care Expenditure, Select OECD Nations 95 4.1 Emerging Market Bond Issues 108 4.2 Secondary Market Transactions in Emerging Market Debt Instruments 109 4.3 Regional Asset Allocation, Bond Funds 118 4.4 Asset Allocation for 25 Largest Emerging Market Debt Funds, September 1999 120 4.5 Bond Fund Asset Quality, 1999 121 4.6 Geographic Allocation of Respondents’ Mutual Funds 134 4.7 Correlations between Institutional Investor and Euromoney Ratings 145 4.8 Emerging Market Bond Indexes, 1994–2001 155 5.1 Swedish Government Bond Rates, 1994–1997 181 xi © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-52162-8 - Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley Frontmatter More information Figures and
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