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2004/12/31-Sandia Report No. SAND2004-6258, "Guidance On

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2004/12/31-Sandia Report No. SAND2004-6258, SANDIA REPORT SAND2004-6258 Unlimited Release Printed December 2004 Guidance on Risk Analysis and Safety Implications of a Large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Spill Over Water Mike Hightower, Louis Gritzo, Anay Luketa-Hanlin, John Covan, Sheldon Tieszen, Gerry Wellman, Mike Irwin, Mike Kaneshige, Brian Melof, Charles Morrow, Don Ragland Prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550 Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Approved for public release; further dissemination unlimited. Issued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy by Sandia Corporation. NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, make any warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represent that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors. Printed in the United States of America. This report has been reproduced directly from the best available copy. Available to DOE and DOE contractors from U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Telephone: (865)576-8401 Facsimile: (865)576-5728 E-Mail: [email protected] Online ordering: http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available to the public from U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Rd Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: (800)553-6847 Facsimile: (703)605-6900 E-Mail: [email protected] Online order: http://www.ntis.gov/help/ordermethods.asp?loc=7-4-0#online SAND2004-6258 Unlimited Release 2 Printed December 2004 Guidance on Risk Analysis and Safety Implications of a Large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Spill Over Water Mike Hightower and John Covan Energy Systems Analysis Department Louis Gritzo, Anay Luketa-Hanlin, and Sheldon Tieszen Fire Science and Technology Department Charles Morrow Nuclear and Risk Technologies - Experiments and New Programs Department Gerry Wellman Structural Mechanics Engineering Department Mike Irwin Environmental Restoration Department Mike Kaneshige Explosive Projects/Diagnostics Brian Melof Explosive Materials/Subsystems Don Ragland, Technical Writer/Editor Energy Infrastructure and DER Department Sandia National Laboratories P.O. Box 5800 Albuquerque, NM 87185 Abstract While recognized standards exist for the systematic safety analysis of potential spills or releases from LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) storage terminals and facilities on land, no equivalent set of standards or guidance exists for the evaluation of the safety or consequences from LNG spills over water. Heightened security awareness and energy surety issues have increased industry’s and the public’s attention to these activities. The report reviews several existing studies of LNG spills with respect to their assumptions, inputs, models, and experimental data. Based on this review and further analysis, the report provides guidance on the appropriateness of models, assumptions, and risk management to address public safety and property relative to a potential LNG spill over water. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors received technical, programmatic, and editorial support on this project from a number of individuals and organizations both inside and outside Sandia National Laboratories. We would particularly like to express our thanks for their support and guidance in the technical evaluations and development of this report. The U.S. Department of Energy was instrumental in providing coordination, management, and technical direction. Special thanks go to DOE personnel in the Office of Oil and Natural Gas, DOE Office of Fossil Energy, for their help in supporting the modeling, analysis, technical evaluations, and risk guidance efforts. To support the technical analysis required for this project, the authors worked with many organizations, including maritime agencies, LNG industry and ship management agencies, LNG shipping consultants, and government intelligence agencies to collect the background information on ship and LNG cargo tank designs, accident and threat scenarios, and LNG ship safety and risk management operations needed to assess LNG spill safety and risk implications. The following individuals were especially helpful in supporting our efforts, providing information, coordinating contacts, and reviewing technical evaluations. Capt. Dave Scott – U.S. Coast Guard Dr. Robin Pitblado – Det Norske Veritas Eric Linsner – PRONAV Ship Management Mike Edens – Office of Naval Intelligence Richard Hoffmann – Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chris Zerby – Federal Energy Regulatory Commission To help in technically reviewing this report, the DOE commissioned an External Peer Review Panel to evaluate the analyses, conclusions, and recommendations presented. The Peer Review Panel consisted of experts in LNG spill testing and modeling, fire modeling, fire protection, and fire safety and risk management. The panel’s comments and suggestions were extremely valuable in improving the technical presentation and organization of the report. The authors would like to thank the following members of the External Peer Review Panel for their valuable comments, suggestions, and directions. Dr. Paul Croce – Vice President and Manager of Research, FM Global Dr. Carlos Fernandez-Pello – Professor of Fire Sciences, University of California Berkeley Dr. Ron Koopman – Consultant on LNG spills and modeling Dr. Fred Mowrer – Associate Professor of Fire Protection Engineering, University of Maryland 4 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Safety Analysis and Risk Management of Large LNG Spills over Water....................... 15 1.1.1 LNG Spill Prevention and Mitigation........................................................................ 15 1.1.2 LNG Breach, Spill, and Hazard Analyses................................................................ 16 1.2 Safety Analysis Conclusions ......................................................................................... 20 1.2.1 General Conclusions............................................................................................... 21 1.2.2 Accidental Breach Scenario Conclusions................................................................ 21 1.2.3 Intentional Breach Scenario Conclusions................................................................ 21 1.3 Guidance on Risk Management for LNG Operations over Water.................................. 22 1.3.1 Guidance on Risk Management for Accidental LNG Spills ..................................... 22 1.3.2 Guidance on Risk Management for Intentional LNG Spills ..................................... 23 2 BACKGROUND.................................................................................................................... 25 2.1 History and Description of LNG..................................................................................... 26 2.1.1 Growth of International LNG Transportation............................................................ 26 2.1.2 LNG Transportation by Ship.................................................................................... 27 2.1.3 LNG Properties ....................................................................................................... 28 2.2 Growing Interest in LNG Safety and Security................................................................ 29 3 RISK ASSESSMENT OF LNG SPILLS OVER WATER ...................................................... 31 3.1 Risk Analysis Elements of a Potential LNG Spill ........................................................... 31 3.2 LNG Spill Risk Assessment and Management Process................................................ 32 3.3 The Elements of an LNG Spill over Water..................................................................... 34 3.3.1 LNG Cargo Tank Breaches..................................................................................... 36 3.3.2 LNG Spill Dispersion after a Breach........................................................................ 37 3.3.3 Potential Consequences from an LNG Spill over Water.......................................... 37 3.4 Evaluation of Four Recent LNG Spill Modeling Studies ................................................ 39 4 ACCIDENTAL LNG BREACH, SPILL, AND HAZARD ANALYSES ................................... 43 4.1 Analysis of Accidental Breach Scenarios of an LNG Cargo Tank ................................. 43 4.2 Spill and Hazard Analysis of an Accidental Breach of a Cargo
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