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Climate Change Climate Change Volume V, Issue 2 April 2006 Risk Alert A report for clients and colleagues of Marsh on risk-related topics Climate Change: Business Risks and Solutions Contents Introduction . 1 Climate Change Science . 2 Climate Change and Natural Disasters . 3 Climate Risks and Opportunities . 6 Regulatory Risks and Opportunities . 6 Shareholder Risks and Opportunities . 9 Litigation Risks. 11 Reputational Risks and Opportunities . 13 Competitiveness Risks and Opportunities . 13 Developing Climate Risk Management Strategies . 14 Corporate Preparedness . 16 Insurance Coverage Issues. 18 Overall Insurance Industry Impacts . 18 Environmental Insurance . 20 Property Insurance . 21 Directors and Officers Liability Insurance . 22 Weather Risk Management . 24 Renewable Energy Risks . 25 Carbon Trading. 28 Carbon-Trading Strategy. 29 Conclusion . 31 Web Sites of Interest . 32 Abbreviations and Acronyms in This Issue . 32 Acknowledgments . 33 Marsh publishes Risk Alert to keep its clients and colleagues informed on critical issues related to risk. For additional copies, please contact [email protected]. This report is also available for download at http://www.marsh.com. Author: Tom Walsh Editor: Meike Olin, CPCU, CIC Production Manager: Christine Reilly Publisher: Timothy Mahoney Climate Change at Davos Introduction When world business and govern- Climate change—often referred to as “global warming”—is one of ment leaders gathered for the World the most significant emerging risks facing the world today, pre- Economic Forum in Davos, senting tremendous challenges to the environment, to the world Switzerland, in January 2006, climate change was high on the list of risk economy, and to individual businesses. It is also one of the most issues they discussed. difficult risks to mitigate. One of the cornerstone reports on risk released at the forum looked at Climate change is a clear example of a risk where long-term emerging global risks, the links planning is essential to mitigate some potentially irreversible between them, and their likely effect effects. This is a complex global issue at the intersection of on different markets and industries. science, risk, and public policy. Although some debate continues Global Risks 2006—produced by the about the extent to which human activity—specifically, the World Economic Forum in collabora- tion with MMC (Marsh's parent emission of “greenhouse gases” (GHGs) into the atmosphere—is company), Merrill Lynch and Swiss linked to climate change, very few experts now question whether Re—concluded that climate change is the climate is indeed changing. one of a set of emerging risks that are “moving to the centre of the policy debate and may offer the The business risks from climate change include: greatest challenges for global risk the strong threat of increasingly volatile weather conditions, mitigation in the future.” rising sea levels, and new health impacts; The report identified three core areas where such risks can be addressed resulting impacts on insurance markets, business resources, and risk mitigation improved: personnel, and corporate preparedness; 1. Enhance the quality of information on risk and improve its flow increasing legal and regulatory pressures; and among stakeholders. mounting public and shareholder activism. 2. Reassess risk priorities and reallo- cate resources and incentives to act. Climate risk also presents new opportunities for businesses, such 3. Strengthen the capacity and as participation in the emerging carbon-trading markets; use and resilience of all levels of business, development of new, cleaner energy resources; reputational political, and administrative institu- tions. boosts; and more. For example: Of climate change, the report said: General Electric Co. has undertaken an initiative it calls “Consensus on the nature of this “Ecomagination,” with plans to double its revenues from “green risk and its consequences for global society and for the global economy products”—including wind turbines and coal gasification has not yet been reached, though a technology—by 2010. growing body of scientific evidence points to the seriousness of the DuPont has committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 65 long-term challenge.” percent in 2010 compared to its 1990 levels. Copies of Global Risk 2006 can be Bank of America has outlined a set of actions aimed at reduc- obtained by visiting http://www.mow.com. ing GHG emissions in both its operations and its investment opportunities. This report provides background on the science behind climate change, discusses the business risks and opportunities associated Volume V, Issue 2, April 2006 | 1 with climate change, addresses development of risk management Physical Effects of strategies, outlines relevant insurance coverage issues, and looks Climate Change at the risks involved with the rapidly developing renewable and The following are among the possi- alternative energy. ble physical effects that could result from climate change: Sea level rise: Melting of the polar icecaps and a resulting rise in the sea level could be one of the most seri- Climate Change Science ous consequences of climate change. The potential for damage is enor- Climate change has been a contentious issue for more than two mous, especially as coastal areas become more developed. Companies decades. Underlying climate change is the greenhouse effect, the could be affected not only through basic premise of which is simple: Greenhouse gases in the upper direct loss of facilities and real estate, atmosphere let in short-wave radiation from the sun. But they but also through potential impacts on their workers, many of whom absorb the long-wave heat radiation that comes back from the could be forced to move if seawaters Earth’s surface, re-radiating it and keeping the planet’s overall rise significantly. Not only might temperature livable. As the concentration of these gases increases, some areas be submerged, but areas not previously at risk to storm surge so do the warming effects. could become so. Part of our understanding of this effect comes from climatology, Hurricanes and typhoons: Hurricane Katrina focused world the study of long-term weather patterns and conditions. Using attention on the damage a massive tree rings, seabed sediments, and ice cores bored from glaciers, hurricane causes when it strikes a climatologists piece together a record of the general weather con- populated area. As with a rising sea level, coastal areas could expect to ditions going back tens of thousands and even hundreds of thou- bear the brunt of the damage from sands of years. Although the underlying science encompasses increased storm activity; although many fields and can be exceedingly complex, there is broad tropical-storm damage from floods and wind can extend hundreds of agreement that the Earth’s surface—including the surface air and miles inland. Asian countries depend- the subsurface ocean—has recently entered another period of ent on monsoon season could be warming attributed to a buildup of carbon dioxide (CO ) and damaged by any change in the tim- 2 ing and intensity of storms. other GHGs. Drought: Some areas of the world Since temperature records using reliable instruments were first may become more prone to drought; already-dry areas may find the deli- kept in the 1860s, the warmest 10 years have all occurred since cate balance they now live under tilt- 1990. Indeed, NASA recently announced that 2005 was the ed to one of desertification. Among warmest year ever recorded. Much of the remaining debate about the potential losses are destroyed crops, loss or reduction of water climate change occurs over why the Earth is warming: specifically, resources, damage to ecosystems, over how much, if any, of the warming is related to human activi- and forced migration of people. ties—primarily the burning of fossil fuels, industrial activity, and Wildfires: Along with increased deforestation. The predominant GHG—and the one receiving the drought conditions comes the possi- most attention—is CO . bility of an increase in wildfires, both 2 in forests and grasslands. Wildfires could threaten business facilities; (continued on page 3) 2 | Risk Alert U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas, 2004 Physical Effects of Climate Change HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 (continued from page 2) 155.9 (2.2%) Energy-related tourism centers; timber, grazing, and Carbon Dioxide agricultural land; wildlife habitat; Nitrous Oxide 5868.0 private homes; and more. 353.7 (5.0%) (82.4%) Heat waves: The European heat wave of 2003—widely cited as being related to climate change—caused Methane the deaths of an estimated 22,000 639.5 (9.0%) people. Demand for air conditioning during periods of extreme heat could Other Carbon Dioxide lead to massive power outages. 105.0 (1.5%) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration In recent years, many respected groups have weighed in to say climate change is occurring, including: the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comprising 2,500 leading experts; the joint National Academies of Sciences from 11 countries— including the United States; the G8, which issued a joint communiqué at the G8 Gleneagles Summit in 2005 calling climate change a “serious and long-term challenge”; and six former leaders of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)—five Republicans and one Democrat. The reality is that governments, international bodies, shareholders, media, and members of the public are asking—and in some cases requiring—companies to take climate
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    0 A podcast interview with Robert Swan Robert Swan is a polar explorer, environmentalist and the first man ever to walk unsupported to both the North and South Poles. He is currently an advocate for the protection of Antarctica and renewable energy. Robert is also the founder of 2041, a company which is dedicated to the preservation of the Antarctic and the author with Gil Reavill of Antarctica ​ 2041: My Quest to Save the Earth's Last Wilderness. ​ So Rob, it's great to have you on the show. How did you become an explorer? Well, it began for me really watching a film. I think films are very powerful, art is a very powerful form to change people. And that film star John Mills is Captain Scott, and I was eleven and I watched that film on Christmas Day. That film sucked me in for lots of different reasons - the “That whole courage and bravery of Captain Scott and the fact that he'd been beaten to The South Pole by ​ idea of a the brilliant Amundsen, and that was such a tragic story. But also the place itself, Antarctica, fascinated me as a kid. Maybe I'm just lazy, Mark, but that dream never went away and it's still leader being with me now 50 years later. more of a Lots of us had dreams at the age of eleven or twelve, but very few of us actually did servant leader something with them, particularly with dreams of this nature. It was a really ambitious and when it's the bold dream that you had.
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