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Stay the Course 12M Price Target SGD 0.66 (+25%) Previous Price Target SGD 0.68

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Stay the Course 12M Price Target SGD 0.66 (+25%) Previous Price Target SGD 0.68 0.53 May 15, 2019 Health Management Int’l (HMI SP) BUY Share Price SGD 0.53 Stay the course 12m Price Target SGD 0.66 (+25%) Previous Price Target SGD 0.68 Company Description 9MFY19 missed street est. on gestation costs… HMI owns 2 tertiary care hospitals in Malaysia and an 9MFY19 core PATMI was at the lower end of our estimate, and missed ambulatory care centre in Singapore. consensus. Due to StarMed-related gestation costs, 3QFY19 core PATMI of SGD13.7m fell 14% YoY. However, we believe our thesis that HMI is a beneficiary of aging population, rising affluence and medical tourism remains intact, as excluding FX, exceptional items and StarMed gestation Statistics costs, PATMI grew 10% YoY. We trimmed FY19-21E EPS by 6-7% to factor in 52w high/low (SGD) 0.67/0.53 adjustments to interest and tax expense assumptions. Maintain BUY with 3m avg turnover (USDm) 0.1 3% lower DCF-based TP of SGD0.66 (WACC: 7.1%, LTG: 1.5%). Free float (%) 32.7 Issued shares (m) 839 … but revenue and operational drivers intact Market capitalisation SGD444.7M HealthCare 3QFY19 revenue rose 8% YoY, supported by a 1% rise in total patient load, USD325M and 5% uptick in both average inpatient and outpatient bill sizes across Major shareholders: Nam See Investment Pte Ltd. 35.5% both Malaysian hospitals. EBITDA fell 2.2% YoY due to gestation costs Maju Medik Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 18.4% from StarMed; Excluding that, EBITDA would have risen 5.6%. MMC will be Kabouter Management LLC 6.0% the first hospital south of KL to offer tomotherapy services. This should Price Performance extend the lead of MMC’s Cancer Centre, a key centre of excellence. At RSH, construction of the extension block has begun. Upon commissioning 0.740 135 0.720 130 in 2021E, RSH will be a 380-bed hospital from 218 presently. 0.700 125 0.680 120 Singapore Boosting StarMed awareness 0.660 115 0.640 110 At StarMed, there are now around 30 specialists, and HMI has started 0.620 105 various initiatives to boost awareness of StarMed to the community. HMI 0.600 100 emphasizes that with StarMed’s prices, which will be lower than that of 0.580 95 0.560 90 private hospitals it will be able to offer a stronger proposition for private 0.540 85 patients. The official launch is expected to take place in 2020. Through 0.520 80 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 9MFY19, total debt has increased nearly MYR200m. The StarMed property mortgage accounts for 64% of total debt. Net debt to trailing EBITDA HMI - (LHS, SGD) HMI / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %) stood at 2.3x (FY18: 1.2x), while net gearing was at 1x (FY18: 0.6x). -1M -3M -12M Key risks Absolute (%) (3) (8) (20) Relative to index (%) 0 (7) (12) Key risks include: i) underestimation of StarMed gestation costs; ii) Source: FactSet fluctuations in FX and foreign patients (which account for 20-23% of the total); iii) adverse regulatory changes; and iv) competition. FYE Jun (MYR m) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue 436 468 507 544 594 EBITDA 84 114 107 126 143 Core net profit 21 61 51 58 71 Core EPS (sen) 3.2 7.3 6.1 7.0 8.5 Core EPS growth (%) (7.4) 129.2 (16.9) 15.2 22.1 Net DPS (sen) 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Core P/E (x) 66.1 24.2 26.6 23.1 18.9 P/BV (x) 10.2 5.9 4.8 4.2 3.6 Net dividend yield (%) 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ROAE (%) 12.1 28.8 17.9 19.2 20.3 ROAA (%) 5.1 12.0 7.7 7.8 8.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.2 14.1 14.8 12.7 11.2 Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 51.6 55.9 92.2 88.8 74.9 Consensus net profit - - 57 64 71 MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (16.1) (8.4) 0.6 Lai Gene Lih, CFA [email protected] (65) 6231 5832 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 SEE PAGE 8 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Health Management Int'l Fig 1: Revisions to forecasts FY19E FY20E FY21E New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%) Revenue (MYRm) 507.2 507.2 0.0 543.7 543.7 0.0 593.8 593.8 0.0 Gross profit (MYRm) 180.1 180.1 0.0 195.7 195.7 0.0 213.8 213.8 0.0 EBIT (MYRm) 79.2 73.5 7.6 97.1 93.5 3.8 112.3 112.9 -0.5 EBITDA (MYRm) 107.2 101.5 5.5 126.5 122.9 2.9 143.1 143.7 -0.4 Core net profit (MYRm) 50.8 54.6 -7.1 58.5 62.2 -6.0 71.4 73.1 -2.3 EPS (MYR) 0.06 0.07 -7.1 0.07 0.07 -6.0 0.09 0.09 -2.3 Chg (ppt) Chg (ppt) Chg (ppt) Gross margin 35.5% 35.5% 0.0 36.0% 36.0% 0.0 36.0% 36.0% 0.0 Admin and distribution cost as a 19.5% 21.0% -1.5 18.7% 18.8% -0.1 17.6% 17.5% 0.1 % of sales Source: Maybank Kim Eng We trim FY19-21E EPS by 2-7%, reflecting changes in: i) interest expense assumptions as a result of the increased debt undertaken by HMI; and ii) tweaks in effective tax rate. Our DCF-based TP is reduced by 3% to SGD0.66 (WACC: 7.1%, LTG: 1.5%). Fig 2: P&L summary 9MFY19 YoY FYE Dec 3QFY19 3QFY18 2QFY19 QoQ Chg FYE as % of Chg FYE (MYR m) (MYR m) (MYR m) (%) (%) MYRm Revenue 124.8 115.4 128.6 8.1 -3.0 507.2 75 COGS (82.7) (74.0) (82.4) 11.7 0.3 (327.2) 75 Gross profit 42.1 41.4 46.2 1.8 -8.8 180.1 74 Other gains - net 2.3 1.9 (1.7) 26.0 -239.8 0.0 nm Dist. & marketing costs (1.9) (1.3) (1.8) 37.7 3.9 (7.6) 71 Admin costs (21.9) (18.5) (24.3) 18.4 -9.9 (98.9) 67 EBIT 20.7 23.4 18.4 -11.5 12.4 73.5 81 EBITDA 28.0 28.6 25.6 -2.2 9.5 101.5 80 Interest inc 0.3 0.2 0.4 62.4 -18.8 1.0 115 Interest exp (3.1) (1.5) (2.5) 99.3 24.4 (11.1) 101 Associates income (0.1) 0.0 0.0 nm nm 0.0 nm Exceptionals (0.3) 0.0 (0.5) nm -42.4 (2.9) 109 Pretax profit 17.9 22.1 16.4 -19.0 9.2 63.5 78 Taxation (6.5) (6.2) (6.8) 5.1 -4.6 (17.8) 112 Net profit 11.4 15.9 9.5 -28.4 19.1 45.7 65 Minority interest 2.1 0.0 1.7 nm 19.7 6.0 nm PATMI 13.4 15.9 11.3 -15.4 19.2 51.7 68 Core PATMI 13.7 15.9 11.7 -13.8 16.8 54.6 70 Core EPS (MYR sen) 1.63 1.90 1.40 -14.0 16.8 6.52 70 Change (ppt) Gross margin 33.7% 35.9% 35.9% -2.1 -2.2 EBIT margin 16.6% 20.3% 14.3% -3.7 2.3 Core net margin 11.0% 13.8% 9.1% -2.8 1.9 Source: Company historical data, Maybank Kim Eng estimates May 15, 2019 2 Health Management Int'l Fig 3: Peer comparisons EV /EBI Div MKE TDA yield ROE Company BBG MKE TP Price FYE Mcap P/E (x) (x) (%) (%) Code Rec (LC) (LC) mm USDm Act FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY1 FY2 HMI HMI SP BUY 0.66 0.54 06 331 22.0 28.4 23.2 19.0 15.1 3.7 17.9 Singapore listed healthcare peers Raffles Med RFMD SP HOLD 1.05 1.02 12 1,340 25.6 29.4 29.5 25.5 19.5 1.9 - Q&M Dental QNM SP NR - 0.46 12 270 26.0 - - - - - - TKMED TalkMed SP NR - 0.53 12 509 24.1 - - - - - - ISEC Healthcare ISEC SP NR - 0.29 12 113 17.8 - - - - - - SMG SMG SP NR - 0.43 12 151 15.9 15.9 13.4 11.9 - - 9.3 Singapore O&G SOG SP NR - 0.38 12 131 19.5 - - - - - - IHH Healthcare IHH MK BUY 6.90 5.46 12 11,501 48.8 42.7 37.7 31.9 16.8 0.5 - Average 43.8 40.7 36.2 30.7 17.0 0.7 0.5 Average ex-IHH 23.9 28.1 27.0 23.2 18.6 2.2 15.2 Asia Pacific (ex- China) healthcare peers KPJ KPJ MK Hold 1.08 0.95 12 1,012 24.4 23.8 22.6 20.2 11.1 2.1 - BDMS BDMS TB Buy 30.00 24.60 12 12,176 41.7 35.7 30.0 26.2 21.7 1.4 - BCH BCH TB NR - 17.30 12 1,363 39.3 34.3 30.1 27.5 18.9 1.6 19.5 Bumrungrad Hosp BH TB Buy 230.00 166.50 12 3,835 29.2 - - - 17.7 - - Chularat Hosp CHG TB NR - 1.91 12 664 31.8 29.3 25.6 23.6 19.7 2.6 19.0 Fortis Healthcare FORH IN NR - 129.70 03 1,388 - - 61.3 32.5 42.6 0.0 -5.4 Apollo Hosp APHS IN NR - 1,173.90 03 2,316 139.1 58.7 39.2 29.8 18.5 0.6 7.8 Ramsay Health RHC AU NR - 64.93 06 9,126 23.2 22.7 20.8 19.4 11.2 2.3 22.4 PT Mitra Keluarga MIKA IJ NR - 2,090.00 12 2,109 49.6 45.0 40.5 35.8 28.4 0.9 9.4 PT Siloam Int'l SILO IJ NR - 4,500.00 12 507 276.7 161.5 137.0 69.3 7.7 0.0 0.7 Average 45.2 35.7 31.5 25.9 18.8 1.6 17.0 China healthcare peers China Resources Med 1515 HK NR - 5.46 12 902 13.7 15.1 14.0 13.2 7.1 1.2 6.8 Harmonicare Med 1509 HK NR - 2.04 12 197 - - 89.3 - 13.6 0.0 0.0 300015 Aier Eye Hosp.
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