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Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150 KS/Buy)

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Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150 KS/Buy) Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150 KS/Buy) Jihwoo Choi +822-768-3262 [email protected] July 27, 2011 Wonjae Park +822-768-3372 [email protected] Company Report Young Ryu +822-768-4138 [email protected] Haedeun Kim +822-768-4180 haedeun.kim @dwsec.com Stuck in neutral amid uncertainties Lower TP to W108,000; Maintain Buy rating 2Q11 Review: Results missed lowered market consensus estimates 3Q11 Outlook murky, but downside risk may be limited Lower TP to W108,000; Maintain Buy rating We maintain our Buy rating on Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) but lower our 12-month target price to W108,000 (from W117,000). Our target price is based on a 2011F P/B of 2.1x, which is slightly below the companyÊs five-year historical average P/B (2.2x). SEMCOÊs book value reflects the book value of its Samsung LED stake (W109.4bn). 2Q11 Review: Results missed lowered market consensus estimates SEMCOÊs 2Q11 results were disappointing, coming in below depressed market expectations. Although 2Q is typically a stronger season than 1Q, the companyÊs operating profit fell QoQ from W92.1bn to W87.1bn. Furthermore, this operating profit was significantly shy of both the market consensus (W116.0bn) and our forecasts (W107.5bn). Revenues came in at W1.68tr (down 11.8% YoY; down 1.9% QoQ), which was below our forecast of W1.85tr and the consensus estimate of W1.83tr. Of note, before 2Q11, the company had last seen its second-quarter revenues fall QoQ in 2005. And the company had last seen its second-quarter operating profit decline QoQ in 2004. Table 1. 1Q11 results – actual vs. Daewoo estimates vs. consensus 2Q11 1Q11 QoQ 2Q10 YoY DW estimates 2Q11 Consensus 2Q11 Sales 1,681.70 1,714.00 -1.9 1,906.50 -11.8 1,669 1,692 Operating profit 87.1 92.1 -5.4 311.1 -72 122.6 113.0 Pre-tax profit 73.4 90.1 -18.5 302.7 -75.8 110.3 110.0 Net profit 54.1 85.6 -36.8 180.1 -70 124.0 86.0 Operating margin 5.2 5.4 11.2 7.3 6.7 Net profit margin 3.2 5 9.4 7.4 6.5 Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates § Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 12/09 5,551 465 8.4 279 3,589 842 89 12.3 30.0 3.3 10.7 12/10 6,969 778 11.2 555 7,148 1,254 -215 18.3 17.4 2.8 8.5 12/11F 6,909 377 5.5 256 3,292 959 -226 6.8 27.3 1.8 8.8 12/12F 7,967 672 8.4 422 5,443 1,352 -12 9.4 16.5 1.5 6.4 12/13F 9,239 791 8.6 485 6,254 1,566 -22 9.1 14.4 1.2 5.7 Note: All numbers are based on K-IFRS consolidated basis, NP refers to net profit to controlling interests Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Please read carefully important disclosures at the end of this report. July 27, 2011 Samsung Electro-Mechanics SEMCOÊs weak 2Q11 results are largely attributable to sluggish TV demand, which had a negative impact on the companyÊs CDS business (tuners and power). Also, SEMCOÊs packaging substrate revenues declined due to weak PC demand as well as a shortage of key raw materials (e.g., BT resin) in the wake of the Japanese earthquake. On the other hand, the companyÊs multi-layer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) business showed some resilience in 2Q11, as its revenues from handset (including smartphone) and PC components increased despite higher competition and a less favorable exchange rate. However, TV-related MLCC revenues were sluggish. In 2Q11, the advanced circuit integration (ACI) unit posted revenues of W376bn (vs. W351bn in 1Q11), making it the only division to beat our revenue forecast (W360bn). This solid performance was the result of increased high-end rigid flex substrate revenues. Table 2. SEMCOÊs quarterly earnings trends (Wbn, W, %, %p) 2010 2011F 2Q11P 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Annual 1Q 2Q(P) 3Q(F) 4Q(F) Annual YoY QoQ Est. Diff. Sales ACI 335.4 365.5 379.9 362.0 1,442.8 351.2 376.6 406.4 383.6 1,517.8 3.0 7.2 360.5 4.5 LCR 357.0 433.4 448.4 398.0 1,636.8 429.6 433.1 443.5 414.8 1,721.0 -0.1 0.8 473.7 -8.6 CDS 393.5 439.4 443.3 440.7 1,716.9 440.0 381.6 392.3 406.2 1,620.1 -13.2 -13.3 446.6 -14.6 OMS 537.7 668.2 573.9 392.6 2,172.4 492.9 490.4 537.1 530.1 2,050.5 -26.6 -0.5 572.3 -14.3 Total 1,623.6 1,906.5 1,845.5 1,593.3 6,968.9 1,713.7 1,681.7 1,779.3 1,734.6 6,909.3 -11.8 -1.9 1,853.0 -9.2 OP ACI 7.7 40.9 44.8 14.8 108.3 16.5 18.5 19.3 14.0 68.3 -54.9 11.8 14.4 28.3 LCR 54.3 101.0 103.1 59.3 317.7 64.0 58.5 61.9 59.8 244.1 -42.1 -8.7 76.5 -23.6 CDS 12.0 36.9 40.3 6.3 95.4 4.7 3.8 7.1 9.4 25.0 -89.7 -19.1 7.5 -49.3 OMS 45.2 132.3 75.8 4.3 257.5 6.9 6.4 10.6 15.9 39.8 -95.2 -7.6 9.1 -29.7 Total 119.1 311.1 264.0 84.8 779.0 92.1 87.1 98.9 99.1 377.2 -72.0 -5.4 107.5 -19.0 OP margin ACI 2.3 11.2 11.8 4.1 7.5 4.7 4.9 4.7 3.7 4.5 -6.3 0.2 4.0 0.9 LCR 15.2 23.3 23.0 14.9 19.4 14.9 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.2 -9.8 -1.4 16.2 -2.7 CDS 3.0 8.4 9.1 1.4 5.6 1.1 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.5 -7.4 -0.1 1.7 -0.7 OMS 8.4 19.8 13.2 1.1 11.9 1.4 1.3 2.0 3.0 1.9 -18.5 -0.1 1.6 -0.3 Total 7.3 16.3 14.3 5.3 11.2 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.5 -11.1 -0.2 5.8 -0.6 Pretax profit 196.1 302.7 247.0 84.8 830.6 90.1 73.5 83.6 75.4 322.6 -75.7 -18.4 92.1 -20.2 Net profit 123.4 180.1 159.1 92.1 554.7 85.6 54.1 61.6 55.5 256.7 -69.9 -36.7 65.1 -16.9 Pretax margin 12.1 15.9 13.4 5.3 11.9 5.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.7 -11.5 -0.9 5.0 -0.6 Net margin 7.6 9.4 8.6 5.8 8.0 5.0 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.7 -6.2 -1.8 3.5 -0.3 Note: Based on IFRS Source: Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Daewoo Securities Research 3Q11 Outlook murky, but downside risk may be limited While the worst seems to be over for SEMCO, the outlook for the telecom equipment/electronic components sector still appears cloudy. 3Q is typically a strong season for SEMCO, but the firmÊs 3Q10 results actually fell QoQ on weak end-consumer demand and inventory corrections. However, we think that the companyÊs 3Q11 results (operating profit of W98.9bn) will be better than its 2Q11 results (operating profit of W87.1bn), due to a low base effect. Still, our outlook for 3Q11 remains cautious. Indeed, there are concerns surrounding SEMCOÊs MLCC business, as there is a possibility that Apple may cut its orders after 3Q11. But, despite the operational risks facing SEMCO, its shares should have limited downside as we believe that companyÊs core parent operating value is around W4.1tr (implying 11.8x 2011F P/E) if we strip out Samsung LED and other investment assets from the current market cap of W6.8tr. The companyÊs investment assets mostly include listed Samsung affiliated companies (e.g., Samsung Heavy Industries, Samsung Fine Chemicals, and Samsung Card) as well as other smaller companies. Daewoo Securities Research 2 July 27, 2011 Samsung Electro-Mechanics Table 3. SEMCOÊs major investment assets % stake # of shares Book Value Market Value Samsung Heavy Industries 2.4 5.5 220 241 Samsung Fine Chemical 0.3 0.1 5 5 Samsung Life 0.6 1.2 124 120 Samsung Card 3.6 4.4 245 270 Others 96 90 Value of listed holdings 690 725 Samsung SDS 8.4 6.1 361 361 Samsung Everland 4 0.1 213 213 Samsung Total Chemical 10.5 5.2 176 176 Others 13 13 Value of unlisted Holdings 763 763 Note: book value as of 1Q11 for both listed and unlisted companies; share price as of July 26 for listed companies Source: Daewoo Securities Research Revisions to our 2011-13 earnings forecasts We revised down our 2011~13 sales, operating profit, and net profit estimates to reflect lower-than-expected 2Q11 results and cautious 3Q11 outlook.
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