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NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: QB Logan Thomas, Va Tech

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NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: QB Logan Thomas, Va Tech 2014 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT JANUARY 3, 2014 NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: QB Logan Thomas, Va Tech *Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. Logan Thomas is going to be the #1 rated QB for physical measurables in 2014. He is 6'6"+ and 240-250+ pounds and was a former high school all-state hurdler and discus thrower. We'll see how he runs at the 2014 NFL Combine, but I suspect something in the 4.5s isn't off the table. With his size, even if he is a 4.6+ runner he is going to be a LeGarrette Blount playing QB. There's only one problem with all the great physical accolades--he may actually play QB as well as LeGarrette Blount. The college data on Thomas is not promising at all. Three seasons as a starter, and three seasons under 60% completion percentage--59.8%, 51.3%, and 56.6% this year. He is not an accurate passer, and you can see it the second you watch him play. Thomas is a no-read/one-read QB with a decent arm strength, not a great arm (as some portray)...and not an accurate arm. Thomas doesn't really appear interested in throwing the ball all that much either. His snaps at QB seem to reflect an urgency to just take off and run...with occasional passes mixed in there. In 2013, Thomas ran the ball 162 times, and completed 228 passes. He had more rushing attempts than completed passes in three different games this season and ran the ball 15+ times in a game in six of 12 full games played. For his career (as a full starter, minus injury game vs. UCLA in bowl this year), Thomas ran the ball 12.2 times per game. He has completed 17.0 passes per game in that same span. Thomas's brand of QB does not really translate well to the NFL. He's Vince Young with less passing proficiency. Some scouts are saying, "possible next Cam Newton." That's not even close. Where Thomas is likely to be an undrafted QB prospect, he might be a 1st-round-like talent as a TE prospect. He may actually be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd-round by a crafty NFL team seeing the potential TE translation. He has the prototypical TE height and body frame--and is an overall much better TE prospect than last year's similar story in QB-Hback-TE MarQueis Gray (now of the Browns). Thomas has the pedigree of an above-average foot speed runner for a QB, and evidence of overall athleticism from his high school track days. When Thomas hits the NFL Combine, I will be very interested in his physical measurables--to see if he truly does translate as a top TE prospect physically. If Thomas is wise (or his agent is), he will just go directly to work out with the TEs...and bypass playing QB. If he snubs working out as a TE because "he wants to be an NFL QB," then I think it casts more negative judgment on his decision-making ability (which as a college passer has been mediocre-to-poor College Football Metrics| 1 2014 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT JANUARY 3, 2014 as it is), If he doesn't take a move to TE seriously, he'll be making the same mistake Tim Tebow and many others made. I hope not for his sake. Logan Thomas, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm: When you crack open the game log on Logan Thomas and look over his 2013--the very first thing you see is his opening day performance against Alabama. The Crimson Tide is always a great litmus test for any player. In that game, Thomas completed 5 of 26 passes for 59 yards. It's not a typo--he completed 5 of 26 passes. He ran five-times for two yards. At that point in my data study, I was ready to close the book. To end his college career, Thomas got hurt in a bowl game against UCLA. Before he left, he was 4-12 for 48 yards passing. It's hard finding evidence of Thomas being a capable NFL (or college) passer. Against Alabama, Duke, and UCLA (partial) this season (the three best record teams he faced) he was 30 of 66 (45.4%) with 0 TD/5 INT...and a 0-3 record. In the prior season, against Clemson, Florida State and Rutgers (bowl) he was 49 of 101 (48.5%) with 3 TD/6 INT. I'm not even going to bother trying to convince you, or me, any further that there is nothing here with Thomas as an NFL QB...because there is obviously nothing here for NFL translation at QB. He is a run- first college QB who is a 'challenged' passer at best. I will update his scouting report in February, post-NFL Combine to give an outlook with him as a TE. Hopefully, he works out exclusively as a TE prospect. The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Logan Thomas Most Compares Within Our System: Logan Thomas as projecting as a more mobile JaMarcus Russell is not a good thing. Thomas could also be called a less accurate passing version of Colin Klein but is a more punishing runner. Thomas is a bigger, less elusive, similarly poor passer version of Terrelle Pryor. None of these comparisons are good for Thomas's translation to the NFL in our system analysis. College Football Metrics| 2 2014 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT JANUARY 3, 2014 QB Name Yr College H W Adj. Adj. Adj. Pass Adj. Pass Grade Comp. Yds per TD per INT Pct. per Comp 4.151 Thomas, Logan 2014 Va. Tech 77.6 256 52.9% 13.0 29.6 30.0 5.102 Russell, JaMarcus 2007 LSU 77.5 256 60.6% 12.8 28.3 28.3 6.055 Klein, Collin 2013 Kansas St 76.5 220 63.3% 13.2 24.9 28.4 -0.096 Pryor, Terrelle 2011 Ohio State 76.4 240 56.2% 12.9 22.7 23.9 4.006 Freeman, Josh 2009 Kansas State 77.8 248 54.3% 13.7 22.1 25.7 6.023 Harris, Jacory 2012 Miami, Fla 75.2 200 63.0% 13.1 14.0 33.1 *“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent. **A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going onto become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys. NFL Outlook: I suspect there will be some scouts and analysts who will try to make a case for Thomas as a top-10 NFL QB prospect. The size, the arm (and that is wrong), the speed..."if he could just..." Thomas doesn't belong as a top-25 QB prospect. He will not be a successful NFL QB, if he is ever given a chance. I don't believe he will get the chance. However, I do think he is going to get drafted. He'll be drafted, but not as a QB, although they may list him that way initially. Some NFL team is going to take him with every intention, regardless of what Thomas professes, to move him to TE. If he goes to work out at TE at the NFL Combine--he might become a 2nd or 3rd-round pick. If he plays "hard to get," and works out at QB only for the NFL Combine (and likely gets embarrassed), then he will be a 6th or 7th-round pick of a team seeing the hidden TE possibilities. New England, I'm looking at you... As a QB, Thomas will be an NFL bust. As a TE, just from initial estimates--he could be a star...a superstar. His mother was a volleyball player, his father played basketball in college. If he measures with high-end athleticism (big vertical, and top speed-agility), he could fit a Jimmy Graham profile. How's that scouting analysis? He's either a bad Vince Young, or the next Jimmy Graham? Which path would you choose? Reports are that he did not want to be a QB in college coming out of High School but was pushed there by Virginia Tech's need. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. College Football Metrics| 3 2014 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT JANUARY 3, 2014 Copyright Statement Copyright at date and time signed below by R.C. Fischer All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law.
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