Development and Calibration of a Hydrodynamic Model of the Tidal Rancocas Creek
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DEVELOPMENT AND CALIBRATION OF A HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL OF THE TIDAL RANCOCAS CREEK DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION MAY 2006 This report was prepared under Grant Agreement #GO-042-48508000047 issued by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. This report was prepared by the Delaware River Basin Commission staff: Carol R. Collier, Executive Director. John Yagecic, P.E., Geoffrey Smith, and Dr. Namsoo Suk were the principal authors. Mr. Yagecic and Dr. Suk are Water Resources Engineer/Modelers and Mr. Smith is a Field Technician in the Modeling & Monitoring Branch. Additional support was provided by Ms. Karen Reavy of the Information Services Branch and Mr. David Sayers of the Planning and Implementation Branch. Special acknowledgement is made to the Mt. Holly Municipal Utilities Authority, especially to Mr. William Dunn and Mr. David Reich, who provided continuous and unwavering technical and logistical support critical to the completion of this project. Special acknowledgement is also given to the members of Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) Post 4914 in Willingboro, NJ, who provided logistical support and site access. Acknowledgement is made to the following organizations for their support in development of the report and studies leading up to it: New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection U.S. Geological Survey National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Calibration of a Hydrodynamic Model of the Tidal Rancocas Creek Table of Contents 1 Introduction and Background.................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Objective ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Tidal Rancocas Creek Description.................................................................................. 1 1.3 Model Platform Selection................................................................................................ 5 1.4 Description of the DYNHYD5 Modeling Platform ........................................................ 7 2 Model Segmentation and Parameters...................................................................................... 8 2.1 Channel and Junction Parameters ................................................................................. 10 3 Boundaries and Forcing Functions........................................................................................ 12 3.1 Upstream Boundary North Branch Rancocas Creek..................................................... 12 3.2 Upstream Boundary South Branch Rancocas Creek..................................................... 13 3.3 Tidal Boundary at Delaware River................................................................................ 13 3.4 Tributary Flows............................................................................................................. 14 3.5 Point Discharge Flows .................................................................................................. 15 4 Data Collection...................................................................................................................... 17 5 Calibration and Confirmation................................................................................................ 18 5.1 Final Calibration Output and Results............................................................................19 5.2 Confirmation Output and Results..................................................................................25 6 Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 31 6.1 Next Steps Toward Development of a TMDL.............................................................. 31 7 Recommendations and Conclusion ....................................................................................... 32 Appendix A - Full Set of Model / Data Comparisons Appendix B - DYNHYD5 Pre and Post Processing Excel VBA Source Code Developed for Tidal Rancocas Creek Model Appendix C - Selected Flow Time Series for Tributaries and Point Discharges i List of Figures Figure 1. Location of Rancocas Creek Watershed....................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2. Daily Discharge Measurements from Three USGS Gages During Model Calibration and Confirmation Periods. ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3. Flow Duration Curve for the North Branch Rancocas Creek at Pemberton for the Period of Record from 1922 to 2002. ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Figure 4. Tidal Rancocas Creek Map and Model Segments. ....................................................................................... 9 Figure 5. Segmentation of the Tidal Rancocas Model ............................................................................................... 10 Figure 6. Interpolation of Tidal Data for Development of Tide Heights at Rancocas Creek..................................... 14 Figure 7. Estimated Daily Flows for Five Tributaries to the Tidal Rancocas Creek During the Model Calibration Period.......................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 8. Comparison of Interquartile Ranges of Daily Flow Values from Point Discharges and Upstream Boundaries. ................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 9. Rancocas Creek Time Series Calibration Plot. ........................................................................................... 20 Figure 10. Rancocas Creek Bivariate Calibration Plot............................................................................................... 21 Figure 11. Rancocas Creek CFD Calibration Plot. .................................................................................................... 21 Figure 12. North Branch Rancocas Time Series Calibration Plot.............................................................................. 22 Figure 13. North Branch Rancocas Bivariate Calibration Plot. ................................................................................. 22 Figure 14. North Branch Rancocas CFD Calibration Plot. ........................................................................................ 23 Figure 15. North Branch Rancocas Time Series Calibration Plot featuring High Flow Event. ................................. 23 Figure 16. South Branch Rancocas Time Series Calibration Plot.............................................................................. 24 Figure 17. South Branch Rancocas Bivariate Calibration Plot. ................................................................................. 24 Figure 18. Rancocas Creek Time Series Confirmation Plot....................................................................................... 26 Figure 19. Rancocas Creek Bivariate Confirmation Plot. .......................................................................................... 26 Figure 20. Rancocas Creek CFD Confirmation Plot.................................................................................................. 27 Figure 21. North Branch Rancocas Time Series Confirmation Plot. ......................................................................... 27 Figure 22. North Branch Rancocas Bivariate Confirmation Plot............................................................................... 28 Figure 23. North Branch Rancocas CFD Confirmation Plot...................................................................................... 28 Figure 24. South Branch Rancocas Time Series Confirmation Plot. ......................................................................... 29 Figure 25. South Branch Rancocas Bivariate Confirmation Plot............................................................................... 29 Figure 26. South Branch Rancocas CFD Confirmation Plot...................................................................................... 30 Figure 27. North Branch Rancocas Time Series Low Flow Confirmation Plot......................................................... 30 List of Tables Table 1. Model Platform Selection Matrix................................................................................................................... 6 Table 2. Final Calibrated Channel Parameters for Tidal Rancocas Creek Model...................................................... 11 Table 3. Final Calibrated Junction Values for Tidal Rancocas Creek Model. ........................................................... 12 Table 4. Specified Point Discharge Mean Daily Flows ............................................................................................. 16 Table 5. Model Calibration and Confirmation Periods .............................................................................................. 18 ii 1 Introduction and Background In December 2000, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) issued Grant Agreement #GO-042-48508000047 to the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) for the