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The Money Market in October 1963

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The Money Market in October 1963 172 MONTHLY REVIEW, NOVEMBE1I 1963 change after seasonal adjustment, according to the Census rncnt. Moreover, the seasonally adjusted index of new Bureau's household survey, nor did the seasonallyadjusted home permits, after two months of decline, also ros unemployment rate, at 5.5 per cent, change significantly. sharply in September and reached a new high. In October, One encouraging dcvclopment in the unemployment pic- outlays on residential construction rose only slightly—a ture is the reduced rate of unemployment among married leveling-off in activity associated with low housing starts men. Unlike the aggregate unemployment rate, which has in August. shown little net change in the past year, the unemployment Total retail sales droppcd 1½ per cent in September. rate for this group has trended generally downward Although shortages of new cars were responsiblefor some throughout most of the current business expansion. At 2.9 of the weakness, there were declines in other groups as per cent in September and October, it was at its lowest well—in contrast to some growth, apart from auto sales, in level since August 1957. August. Preliminary data suggest that retail sales in Oc- Rccent gains in residential construction represent a tober may have substantially recovered these losses. marked improvement from the summer performance. Fol- Consumer spending on durables, which has remained lowing a substantial decline in August, the seasonally relatively sluggish so far in 1963, is receiving support adjusted annual rate of private nonfarm housing starts from a rising level of disposable income. The favorable advanced by 17 per cent in September to the highest outlook for such spending is supported by a study made level since the current series became available in January in August and early September by Michigan University's 1959. Large—and quickly reversed—movementsin hous- Survey Research Center, which indicates that consumer ing starts are, of course, not uncommon. Nevertheless, the plans to buy houses, household goods, and cars are strong. September gain was sufficient to pull the third-quarter Heavy sales of new cars in October suggest, moreover, average to within less than 2 per cent of the very high that the public's initial reaction to the new models was second-quarter average and is an encouraging develop- favorable. The Money Market in October The money market continued to exhibit in October ability of corporate money apparently also prompted the about the same degree of firmness as in August and Sep- major sales finance companies to reduce their rates during tember. Federal funds traded largely at the 3½ per cent the month by t/a to ¼ of a percentage point on various ceiling (equal to the Federal Reserve discount rate), with maturities of their directly placed paper, but rates were a sizable margin of demand for reserves being satisfied by increased again by about of a percentage point near member bank borrowings at this rate from the Federal the month end. Leading New York City banks increased Reserve Banks. Rates posted by the major New York City during the month their offering rates for new time cer- banks on call loans to Government securities dealers were tificates of deposit, while the range of rates at which such quoted in a 3% to 4 per cent range duringthe month,but certificates were offered in the secondary market rose dealers found financing from nonfinancial corporations from 10 to 15 basis points and from 10 to 20 basis points readily available at more attractive rates much of the time. on three- and six-month maturities, respectively. Over the first two thirds of October, rates on Treasury After the close of businesson October 23, the Treasury bills maturing in 1964 moved generally higher, as the announced that it would offer at par about $7.6 billion of market adjusted to enlarged supplies and as some un- eighteen-month 3% per cent notes dated November 15, easiness developed over the near-term outlook for interest 1963 and maturing on May 15, 1965, replacing a cor- rates, while rates on scarce shorter maturities declined. responding amount of certificates and notes maturing on Later in the month, bill rates generally declined on strong November 15. Subscription books for the refunding were corporate demand in a more confident atmosphere, open only on October 28, with payment in the form of although in the final days rates edged up again to close either cash or the two maturing securities due on Novem- not far from their earlier high points. The increased avail- ber 15. The new offering was well received with sub- FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 173 criptions totaling $20.1 billion. On October 31, thc a more cautious atmosphere developed in the fInal days of Treasury announced that total allotments of about $8.0 the period and prices declined again. Prices of corporate billion would be made, including full allotments to official and tax-exempt bonds held steady in the first half of Octo- accounts and to subscriptions up to $100,000, and partial ber but moved down later in the month when the volume allotments of 21 per cent to all othcr subscribers but with of new issues increased. no subscriptions in excess of $100,000 allotted less than that amount. RANK RESERVES Hesitancy also pervaded the market for Treasury notes and bonds in the first two thirdsof the month. Distribution Market factorsabsorbed reserves on balance from the to investors of the longer term issues arising from the Sep- last statement period in September through the final state- tember advance refunding continued amid an atmosphere ment week in October. Reserve drains—primarily reflect- of caution, as some signs of strength in the economy gen- ing a seasonal contraction in float and an outflow of erated uncertainty over the outlook for long-term interest currency into circulation—more than absorbed reserves re- rates. The erosion in prices over the first two thirds of the leased by a decline in required reserves and by the effects month lcd to some subsequent increase in investor de- of movementsin other factors. Systemopen market opera- mand, and prices firmed. As in the bill market, however, tions during the month more than offset the net reserves drained by changes in market factors. System outright holdings of Government securitiesexpanded on average by $373 million from the last statement period in September CHANGES iN FACTORSTENDING TO INCREASE OR DECREASE the final statement week in while hold- MEMBER BA?.IK RESERVES, OCTOBER 1963 through October, under rose $61 million. In millions of dollars; (+) dcnote incrc-isc, ings repurchase agreements by (—) decrcac in cxccss rescivos Net System outright holdings of bankers' acceptances in- creased by $4 million, and such holdings under repurchase Oally uerages.—eekended agreements rose by $2 million. From Wednesday,Septem- Futor 'lit Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. cbanen ber 25, through Wednesday,October 30, System holdings 2 9 16 23 30 of Government securities maturing in less than one year W 0patla tr,nsactlonI increased by $570 million, while holdings maturing in Trroaury oscaUmz — 5) — ii — 24 + 14 + 12 — 60 Fe'leral R4se? 11)19.1 —$112 — Is + j ±343 —1111 —521 more than one year expanded by $102 million. (urranry In clrcujatlcoi — 5 — 206 — 174 •ll 0)0 — 216 — —+ + — Gold Ind CoreIgn account.... 14 ÷ 1 + 2 33 + 5 28 Other IIe11uaIxn, am. +15 —28 +S 4-53 + H — — THE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET Total — 450 — 33!) — 122 + 740 Dircet FederalRnorsn credit trnnac1lont The market for Treasury bills was the focal point of Uovernrnont aocnrlttoo: Dluuat m.uket er attention the as the auctioned bills piucbaora — — during month, Treasury a9.lee F + DO 31)2 + IS? + 33 fold Imdee rcpwaOaoe to raise $1.5 billion of new money alter having already agreemenla 4. 02 +227 — 152 —21)3 ÷ 01 ± 01 Loonu. dincounta. aisd added $2 billion to the supply of bills outstanding by two — Malnbar lAnk borrowingl.. — 45 + 4 8 + 02 — 162 — 180 earlier auctions of one-year bills in August and Septem- Othar — — — 4-1 —1 — B&ikeraPacrrplauore: ber. A hesitant tone prevailed in the market at the begin- — i 3 11aug01 o,iULght 2 .4- 1 4. + + 1 + 4 of that the of 11nj..r ,.10)C4)1lu' —0 ning October, reflectingexpectations supply aCreeLuSlllO -fl + 4-2 +2 -4-2 outstanding issues would soon be augmented by an offer- Total 4-425 -f-Ill —ala -4-. 53 +250 ing of March tax anticipation bills, by a possible "strip" Bomberbank resmv With Federal It. oer.w ltank. — -1—3 .455 — 34 ...307 ...439 issue, and by another in the series of monthly one-year — 12 Cnob allowed no reaerilOt.... —305 +248 4-107 + 40 bills. At the same time, an early-month contraction in the Total r1141r,es? — 31) 4— 1? —507 — — 200 — 4011 Cited et chance In roquired level of nation-wide reserve availability led to market dis- — 1)1 90 326 85 + I + 152 -4-. -4- cussion about the possibility of a further shift toward less ranoranef — lOS S — 3 45 — 101 — 133 (inane ± + ease in monetary policy. Rates edged generally higher 1)1117 arera,s 1,1)1)1 Ut uietol0r bit1: through October 7, although scarce shorter bill maturities JJurr',,1n,l7uw RcerroIlerdo 315 322 300 301 1110 3317 Excero rrtwn-vnif 552 4311 3113 434 327 3811: moved down in yield on good demand. Subsequently, 40 74 4)7 1.28 052 Fz,,e r,eur1)tOt 9 through midmonth, demand picked up at the higher rate levels rates shorter bills moved while NoOe: Boceww. o( rounding. fi0Irth dO 087 nercorUyadd tO (04.11... and on down, yields Incluekg thnrign, In Tr4o.ur7rnurntay and CR10.
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