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Fostering Sustainable Economic Growth by Redefining Competitiveness and Industrial Brief for GSDR 2015 Fostering sustainable economic growth by redefining competitiveness and industrial policy: Towards a systemic policy approach aligned with beyond-GDP goals Policy Brief prepared for the UN Global Sustainable Development Report 2015 Karl Aiginger – Michael Böheim* Abstract research sectors, (iii) by greater public awareness Industrial policy is back on the agenda and the and (iv) if consumer preferences will call for consensus is that it must be different 'this time' socio-ecological transition. from the past. Following Aiginger et al. (2013) we redefine industrial policy for industrialised Ten Theses for a “new” industrial policy countries as a strategy to promote 'high-road fostering sustainable growth 1 competitiveness', understood as the ability of an economy to achieve 'Beyond-GDP' Goals. 'High- (1) Industrial policy is back on the political road strategies' are based on advanced skills, agenda , driven by fear (globalisation, innovation, supporting institutions, ecological deindustrialisation) and hope (increasing ambition and an activating social policy. This 'new employment, sustainability). Bubbles in non- industrial policy' is systemic, working in manufacturing sectors (finance, construction, alignment with other policy strands and housing) have fuelled the financial crisis, and supporting social and environmental goals; it recovery is especially difficult in countries with a affects the structure of the economy as the small manufacturing sector, particularly when it whole not only the manufacturing sector. Short- is combined with a current account deficit. term actions, such as protecting employment in (2) Academia suggests that a new industrial unviable companies, low prices for fossil fuels, or policy must be different from the past. It should reducing wages in high-income economies are promote competition and be a discovery process counterproductive. To pursue an industrial policy in a cooperative climate between government that targets society's ultimate goals without and companies. It should align industrial policy public micromanagement will be challenging. It with the long-term interests of the society. It has could be achieved (i) by setting incentives, to be systemic and driven by a wider vision, particularly those impacting on technical progress instead of a standalone policy in conflict with (e.g. to make it less labour-saving and more other strands of government policy. It should energy-saving), (ii) by the use of the important stop extending the life of non-viable industries or role governments have in the education and artificially creating national champions requiring shelter from global competitors. ________________________ (3) A new industrial policy requires three new *The views and opinions expressed are the authors’ and do not yardsticks leading to a redefinition of industrial represent those of the Secretariat of the United Nations. Online policy. publication or dissemination does not imply endorsement by the United Nations. Authors’ can be reached at [email protected]. 1 The 10 theses are essentially based on the work by Aiginger (2014, 2013, 2012). • First, economic performance should be promotes the inclusion of social and ecological measured by a broader set of goals or a goals into economic models and thinking. more comprehensive indicator, instead of (5) The European Commission puts sustainability GDP (or GDP growth). This could be the 'at the centre stage' of industrial policy 'beyond-GDP goals' or some overall (unfortunately jointly with a rather conventional indicator of wellbeing like life satisfaction, defined competitiveness). Its Energy Roadmap happiness or life expectation. 2050 sets the goal to reduce greenhouse gas • Second, it should downgrade or abandon emissions by as much as '80 to 95%'. Radical the concept of price competitiveness, innovation projects – e.g. on ultra-low carbon which emphasises low costs (or in its steel - have been started. Recently, the European enlightened version low unit labour Commission set a goal to increase costs). Competitiveness should be defined manufacturing's share of nominal value-added as 'ability to achieve beyond-GDP goals'. GDP to 20% by 2020 (from 16% currently) which • Third, in trying to increase welfare is realistic only if quality of production is (beyond-GDP goals) countries may significantly upgraded and service components pursue a low-road strategy (emphasising are added. low costs, taxes, social and ecological (6) The renewed interest in industrial policy in standards) or a high-road strategy based the U.S. was motivated by the current account on research, skills, ecological ambition, an deficit. Reducing energy imports and becoming a empowering employment policy and net exporter for energy seem to be the excellent institutions. While Industrialised overarching policy priorities. But a large share of countries have to pursue a high-road the U.S. deficit - 180 billion euro - stems from an strategy, if they want to maintain their U.S. trade deficit in technology-driven industries frontier position, developing countries (where energy costs are about 1% of total costs). can start with a low-road strategy taking Reducing energy prices will not boost the U.S.'s into account their current status of share of manufacturing in global trade, as development, but also keeping in mind keeping the median wage constant for 50 years that a sustainable growth path should be did not help. the long-term goal. (7) The new intentions of industrial policy are • Industrial policy for high-income still on trial. Europe's fear of losing cost countries should be defined as the sum competitiveness relative to the U.S. is reducing of policy measures to achieve 'high-road its determination to put sustainability at the competitiveness'. By targeting high-road 'centre stage'. On the positive side the share of competitiveness and achieving society's renewable energy has increased strongly, with wider aims (including social and ecological some countries producing 50% of electric energy goals), industrial policy thus merges into a from 'green' sources. But new energy sources systemic socio-economic strategy. need complementary fossil fuels and investment (4) Policy documents developed by international in the power-grid infrastructure. Coal use in organisations have already defined new goals Europe increased after the collapse of the for industrial policy that partially follow the ideas European emissions trading scheme. Increasing of academia. All proposals directly or indirectly U.S. coal exports made coal cheaper in Europe focus on the structure of the economies as a than gas. At the same time China is undertaking a whole, not only on a narrowly defined deep transformation, trying to increase resource manufacturing sector since the borders between and energy efficiency – albeit from a very low manufacturing and services are ever more initial level. It has set goals to increase R&D blurred. The OECD's 'New Perspectives Program' investment to 2% of GDP (the current EU share) and makes advances in electric vehicles and world no1 in manufacturing. Some academic alternative energies. papers develop ideas how Industrial policy, which (8) Europe has in principle two choices to cope had previously been of mixed success, should be with high energy prices: to go for lower energy different this time (see Aghion et al, 2011, Rodrik , prices itself (by exploiting shale gas or by 2004, Aiginger , 2012): the "new industrial policy" reducing taxes on energy) or to further its lead in should be forward looking, pro competitive, energy efficiency plus to increase investment in supporting long term societal needs. Above all, it innovation and top education. Given a vision of a should not be an isolated policy strand in conflict system encompassing social and ecological goals, with regional policy or energy policy, but it the only viable choice is to pursue an industrial should be an integrated or systemic policy. policy to encourage energy efficiency, social and The European Commission developed just such a ecological innovation. new industrial policy in "Communications" first (9) Going for a socio-ecological transition can calling for an "integrated industrial policy with make Europe a 'role model' for other countries, sustainability at centre stage" ( European even if different preferences and circumstances Commission, 2010), and then for a "stronger will always call for some heterogeneity. Industrial European Industry" setting the target to raise the policy should foster the long-run transition, not manufacturing share in GDP from 16% to 20% decelerate structural change. This is a demanding (European Commission , 2012). challenge, given vested interests and the traditional role of governments to preserve the The interface with climate policy status quo and national champions. The systemic character of industrial policy can be (10) Refocusing on the economy's industrial illustrated by the interface between industrial base makes sense, particularly after the policy and energy policy. Placing sustainability on experience of bubbles in financial and real-estate the centre stage suggests that environmental markets. New industrial policy should support the standards are no longer seen as an obstacle for a transition of traditional narrowly defined competitive manufacturing sector, but as manufacturing to a sector producing greater potential drivers of growth. And the European consumer value, supporting the economy's long- targets are ambitious: shifting away
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