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CRM Funds 3Q 2018 Newsletter.Indd

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CRM Funds 3Q 2018 Newsletter.Indd Third Quarter 2018 Fund Newsletter Cramer Rosenthal McGlynn, LLC is a leading value-oriented CRM Mutual Fund Trust investment firm with approximately $6 billion in assets under Cramer Rosenthal McGlynn, LLC management. Since the firm was founded in 1973, our 520 Madison Avenue, 20th Floor client list has grown to include corporate and public pension plans, endowments and foundations, hospitals, community New York, NY 10022 and religious organizations, Taft-Hartley and multi-employer T 212.326.5325 funds as well as individual and family trusts. The intellectual www.crmfunds.com coherence of our investment philosophy is a genuine strength. Companies we buy and hold are characterized by three attributes: change, neglect, and valuation. The hunt for these attributes provides a solid foundation for every stage of our investment process. Current News We have a long history of elevating top performing individuals into positions of increasing responsibility. You will recall we named Brian Harvey, CFA as Director of Research at the beginning of 2017. Brian joined CRM in 2005 and has done an outstanding job of leading our research team and ensuring the continued consistent adherence to our philosophy and process. He has Contents also worked with the team to improve certain workfl ows, evaluate Third Quarter 2018 Fund Newsletter new data and risk management tools, and generally improve our Current News 1 collective productivity. In recognition of these accomplishments Market Commentary 2 -- and his strong performance leading our Small Cap Value All Cap Value 4 strategy -- we are pleased to announce he is being promoted to Large Cap Opportunity 6 join Jay Abramson as co-CIO. Mid Cap Value 8 Small/Mid Cap Value 10 Collaboration is one of the hallmarks of our fi rm and for a number Small Cap Value 12 of years we have had a Management Committee overseeing all Fund Summary 14 facets of our business. In order to further streamline decision Investment Philosophy & Process 15 making and oversight, we are converting to an Executive Important Disclosures 17 Committee, which will be comprised of our CEO Jay Abramson, our President Chris Barnett, and Brian Harvey. Jay, who has been with CRM for more than 33 years, has been instrumental in the development of our investment approach and the overall leadership of the fi rm. Chris has been with the fi rm for more than 20 years and has been a key member of our leadership group for more than “I have seen a lot of markets. a decade. He has been our principal representative with clients I have seen a lot of fads and and consultants and an important contributor to our key strategic diff erent styles of investing. decisions over this time. An important element for successfully investing in stocks We have decided there is less opportunity for us to distinguish is not to follow the crowd, ourselves in a dedicated large cap strategy. Accordingly, we have but to follow the road less made the decision to wind down that discrete strategy. We therefore traveled.” invite our Large Cap clients to migrate to our All Cap Value strategy. Our approach to All Cap is true to the name…it includes ideas from Gerry Cramer our Small, Smid, and Mid strategies as well as select large cap Former Chairman Emeritus companies which demonstrate our core change/transformation and relative neglect characteristics. All Cap, in particular, is a return to our founding roots when it was our only investment product. Market Commentary The U.S. markets continued to climb the Wall of Worry. Despite concerns over trade talks with China, emerging market fl are ups, and pending mid-term elections here in the U.S., the market rallied due to strong earnings as the early benefi ts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act supported results. U.S. gross domestic product (“GDP”) is expected to grow 3-4% this quarter following the robust 4% growth in 2Q18, an acceleration from the approximate 2.5% average growth witnessed for most of the post-recession period. Credit spreads continued to narrow this quarter and consumer confi dence was healthy. We are monitoring capital expenditure announcements in the U.S. for a potential supply side lift to GDP and any resolution of the global trade agreements could be another boost to the U.S. economy. We did witness some changes in the market this quarter. Large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks, which was a reversal from the trend earlier this year. The S&P 500 (total return) index returned 8% in 3Q18, its best quarter in fi ve years, which topped the Russell 2000 by approximately 400 basis points. The U.S. dollar traded in a narrow band for most of the quarter compared to the rally experienced earlier this year. Larger cap stocks benefi tted from President Trump’s pivot on trade talks and the removal of concerns over the passage of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) 2.0 and the European Union agreements. The sector leadership also rotated this quarter. Healthcare, Industrials, and Telecom were the strongest performers while Materials, Energy, and Real Estate lagged. Technology, the leadership sector for the 2 Cramer Rosenthal McGlynn, Third Quarter 2018 Fund Newsletter fi rst half of 2018, began to falter late in the quarter. Interestingly, some of the highfl ying FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netfl ix, Google) stocks were actually down during the month of September. The bloom may be coming off the rose for this group. The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) continued with its tightening program. The Fed Funds target rate increased 25 basis points following the September 26 meeting. The Fed has raised its target rate by 200 basis points during this campaign. The spread between the two year note rate and the 10-year bond rate declined from about 30 basis points at the beginning of July to the low 20 basis points range by the end of September. There has been increased rhetoric about what the fl attening of the yield curve is saying about the U.S. economy. However, a narrowing of this spread is not unusual during a Fed tightening cycle. We remain broadly constructive on banks stocks despite the fl attening of the curve as capital return actions remain robust, costs are well managed (through the use of technology and the closure of branches), and loan growth should benefi t from the resurgence of the U.S. economy despite increased competition from non-bank lenders. Merger and acquisition (“M&A”) activity slowed this quarter with overall announcements down low single digits year over year. This quarter tends to be a seasonally slow period for capital markets related activity. However, the fundamental building blocks for M&A still remain in place: CEO confi dence is high, credit markets are favorable, and valuations remain attractive. There also remains substantial dry powder at private equity fi rms to pursue M&A. Despite the positive capital markets environment and high level of consumer confi dence, we still need to be mindful of risk in the global market. China remains the one of the biggest wildcards for U.S. markets. China Shenzhen A shares declined 10% this quarter and are now down 24% year to date. Trade talks with China remain contentious and tariff actions on both sides have escalated. The U.S. imposed tariffs of about $200 billion of Chinese imports at a 10% rate in September but this will increase to 25% in January 2019. A protracted trade battle between U.S. and China will not be positive for either market. Emerging markets (EM) continue to be a challenge this year. The rally in the U.S. dollar, the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign, and the currency mismatch on sovereign and corporate debt has hampered EM. We witnessed dramatic declines in the Turkish lira and the Argentinian peso this quarter. Emerging markets are facing a debt hangover caused, in part, by the global quantitative easing actions post the Great Recession, which made debt so readily available. As this global liquidity is removed, borrowers and countries will have to wrestle with rising funding costs and, in some cases, currency mismatches. The U.S. mid-term elections are right around the corner. Historically, mid-term elections are negative for the stock market performance in the third quarter, but that has not been the case this cycle. Based on market polls, Democrats are expected to win the majority of seats in the House of Representatives while the Republicans are expected to hold the majority of seats in the Senate. A split government is generally not bad for the markets. But, as we have learned over the past few years, polls can be very misleading. All that being said, it comes down to the individual stock for us. The global macro events are going to be push/pull for the companies in which we invest but, ultimately, the valuation creation rests with management being able to manage their businesses to drive value through the change events we are investing alongside. There remain plenty of idiosyncratic investment opportunities that fi t our change, neglect, and valuation framework, and that remain undiscovered by the market. The level of corporate change remains robust (spin- offs, restructuring, new management, new products, divestitures, etc.) and valuations remain attractive for our holdings given the under earnings aspect of our investments. CRM Mutual Fund Trust Cramer Rosenthal McGlynn, LLC 520 Madison Avenue, 20th Floor New York, NY 10022 T 212.326.5325 www.crmfunds.com CRM All Cap Value Fund The All Cap Value Fund, under normal circumstances, invests at least Shares Institutional Investor 80% of its assets in a diversified portfolio of equity and equity related securities of U.S.
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