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BLACKLINE INC. GREEN YELLOW RED LIGHT LIGHT LIGHT (TICKER: BL) LBIR Recommendation STOCK | 12/4/20 FRESH LOOK BLACKLINE INC. GREEN YELLOW RED LIGHT LIGHT LIGHT (TICKER: BL) LBIR Recommendation Stock Price: $224.17 (12/5/20) Company Size: $6.8B Author: Janice Quek Industry: Financial and Company Rank: 453 Sector: Technology Compliance ERP Software Blackline is a leading cloud-based financial operations and accounting software provider. IN THIS FRESH LOOK WE’LL COVER: ä u Summary of the Business Grab-and-Go Blackline’s range of financial operations solutions is THESIS offered on a subscription basis and applicable to a An investment in Blackline is a play wide range of companies across multiple industries. on demand for cloud-based u Recent Developments financial accounting and Positive Q3 performance indicate an improved management software. Blackline’s environment for Blackline and management is highly rated suite of solutions, optimistic of the outlook ahead. along with an underpenetrated market still operating on u Competitive Environment traditional, inefficient tools will The company is a leading vendor in a relatively drive growth for the company. benign competitive landscape. It has been Furthermore, its approach to acknowledged as one of the best available. pursuing high ROI partnerships to u Conclusions/Recommendations drive awareness and larger deals The company is leading provider in the industry will sustain the company on a and has an attractive and growing value strong growth trajectory in the proposition. It continues to be a steady performer medium term. for investors and we rate it a Green Light. SEEKING STOCKS THAT CAN DOUBLE IN 2-3 YEARS 1 LEFTBRAINIR.COM . 630-517-9300 0.94 STOCK: BL | 12/4/20 FRESH LOOK Data as of 12/5/20 unless specified Enterprise Revenue Fwd $348.0M 6.80B Market Cap: 6.91B Value: (TTM): ($336M) Fwd (TTM) 19.87x YTD Return: 134.21% RSI: 68.3 Price/Sales: (20.25x) Gross Margin Revenue Growth 80.70% 20.4% ROIC (TTM): -3.2% (TTM): (TTM, YoY): 200-day 52-Week High: 125.53 52-Week Low 38.32 79.07 Moving Avg. EBITDA 8.3M CFO 48.1M FCF 33.0M Insider Transactions (2020): Insiders sold 42,768 shares in the last three months 2% of its $28 billion total addressable market, SUMMARY OF BUSINESS û and the opportunity is large and untapped. Blackline is a leading provider of a cloud-based Broad portfolio, high ROI and ERP-agnostic platform that modernizes accounting and traits make Blackline a leading choice for financial operations for organizations. It companies specifically targets mid to large companies. Blackline earns its revenue through subscription Blackline’s software fit current market needs fees for use of its software. and industry trends. It is built and designed for the cloud, and offers the broadest suite of Financial Close is chaotic, time consuming and financial accounting and management solutions expensive for organizations using manual in the market, all integrated on a single platform. processes Most companies begin with Blackline’s core products before moving to its set of strategic Employees have relied on manual methods, products (e.g. Intercompany Hub, Smart Close legacy software and spreadsheets for a long time etc), and Blackline’s broad portfolio enables for financial operations, and because they work clients to gradually expand their subscription sufficiently for their purposes, many continue with the company. The software has a high with status quo, even as work is becoming more Return on Investment (ROI), an important part complex with greater regulation and compliance of the buying decision. Another important requirements, changing accounting standards competitive advantage is that the Blackline and operations across geographical regions. platform is Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Increased complexity and tighter timelines can agnostic. As many of the midsized to large often result in chaos and mistakes, and organizations that it targets already use an ERP companies will need to consider using vendor, the cost of using an independent technology to automate work if they want to financial close software vendor that does not become more efficient and save resources and work well with the organization’s ERP, or only time. Blackline estimates that it serves less than integrates with a few ERP brands is high. This is SEEKING STOCKS THAT CAN DOUBLE IN 2-3 YEARS 2 LEFTBRAINIR.COM . 630-517-9300 EQUITY 0.94 STOCK: BL | 12/4/20 FRESH LOOK a crucial point, because most ERP solutions Microsoft Dynamics. Blackline also has a special despite their maturity in the software market, agreement with SAP where its financial close have not evolved their platforms to handle software is listed as a Solution Extension – an financial accounting and close processes well, exclusive arrangement for which Blackline is the compared to other business functions. Blackline only recommended financial close solution to is compatible with 161 ERP vendors which SAP’s 9,000 customers globally. includes commonly used ERP vendors such as NetSuite, Oracle, Workday, Sage Intacct and Source: Blackline Investor Presentation Financial and Operational Metrics Blackline currently has 54% of the Fortune 50 as its customers, and 35% of the Fortune 500. Blackline has grown rapidly in the last five years, with revenue expanding at a CAGR of From a profitability standpoint, the business has 36.1% between FY15 and FY19. This has been high gross margin in the low 80+%. Blackline is primarily due to success in the enterprise as the gaining operating leverage as expenses as a average deal size has grown over time. Dollar- percentage of total revenue are declining. The based net revenue retention rates are high – well company has a positive non-GAAP operating above 100%, indicating that customers are margin and free cash flow margin, and both purchasing more of Blackline’s products over margin metrics are expanding gradually as the time, while renewal rates remain in the high company scales. Blackline is profitable today on 90+%, reflecting customers’ overall satisfaction an adjusted basis. with the product and their desire to continue with Blackline. Size of deals are also getting larger, often involving a strategic product. The company has more than 3,200 customers today. SEEKING STOCKS THAT CAN DOUBLE IN 2-3 YEARS 3 LEFTBRAINIR.COM . 630-517-9300 EQUITY 0.94 STOCK: BL | 12/4/20 FRESH LOOK RECENT DEVELOPMENTS û Blackline announced good results in Q3, LB•LOGIC We do not think that the CEO change will impact Blackline’s reporting continued improvement in the performance adversely. Huffman has been demand environment, and increasing business heavily involved with the company’s activity and momentum throughout the quarter. operations since 2018, managing its sales, Sales exceeded the company’s expectations, partnerships and marketing aspects of the firm. Additionally, Therese Tucker’s new reflecting the importance of Blackline’s software role will create stronger emphasis on R&D, in the enterprise, especially as companies potentially accelerating new product roll- consider migrating certain functions to a remote outs, which we see as important to strengthen their competitive position. arrangement permanently. Management Tucker’s experience is highly technical, commented that some of its customers have having served as Sungard’s previous CTO already shifted to a permanent remote close, and and graduating with a B.S. in Computer it expects more to have similar work Science. arrangements in the future. The company also saw solid large deal momentum, a number of them were deal expansions into strategic solutions, and a very healthy pipeline for the LB•LOGIC Blackline’s success in enabling future. Its mid-market segment was also robust, customers to transition and work seamless remotely will be a strong testament for its achieving record volumes of new logos. Win software capabilities as more companies rates were strong against competitors, and the consider moving the financial close to a combination of these results gives Blackline the permanently remote function. This is a selling point and catalyst for new logos. confidence that it will continue to performance and potentially accelerate its business post- pandemic. Management also highlighted that Financial and Operating Results Covid-related relief programs offered to customers when needed have not impacted Q3 Blackline announced total revenue of $90.5 results materially, and the company believed million in Q3, up 21% from Q3 of FY2019, driven that it is now “out of the woods” on these by strong sales and record revenue from its programs, reflecting the optimism of recovery services segment. Contribution from ahead. international continued to increase in proportion, reaching 25% of total sales in Q3, up Earlier in the quarter, Blackline also announced from 22% last year. Partners were also key to that its current CEO Therese Tucker will be securing deals, particularly its partnership with moving into another role, and Marc Huffman SAP, which made up 23% of sales in Q3, will be taking over as CEO from 1st January 2021. maintaining from FY19. More than half of its Marc Huffman is Blackline’s current president large deals (~60%) came from a partner. The and Chief Operating Officer. Following the company also reported strong renewal rates in change, Therese Tucker will provide strategic Q3 at 97%, while its dollar-based net revenue oversight and focusing on product innovation retention rate was at 107%, falling one and customer success, areas that she is percentage point due to the pandemic passionate about. environment. On the profitability front, margins SEEKING STOCKS THAT CAN DOUBLE IN 2-3 YEARS 4 LEFTBRAINIR.COM . 630-517-9300 EQUITY 0.94 STOCK: BL | 12/4/20 FRESH LOOK improved as expenses fell from lockdown based, primarily enterprise customers and high restrictions, which led to savings from rent, renewal rates. travel, operational costs and virtual marketing. As a result, the company reported non-GAAP operating income of $14.6 million, or a margin of Outlook and Estimates 16.2%, up from $4.6 million in Q3 FY19.
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