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Media Analysis of the US Election: August 2020 Insights from Pressrelations 2020 Introduction

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2020 Media Analysis of the US Election: August 2020 Insights from pressrelations 2020 Introduction In cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Communication, Information Processing and Ergonomics FKIE and NewsGuard, pressrelations is conducting am in-depth media analysis that sheds light on the role of disinformation in the 2020 US election. Time window of the qualitative analysis Link to the InfoBoard The basis for this quantitative, fully automated media analysis is formed by 426 online media sources from five countries. The data from 16 of those media sources was coded by pressrelations analysts, according to qualitative criteria. The selected media sources included eight US media sources and eight online media sources from Germany, Austria and Switzerland (D-A-CH), which were analyzed for the period from August 1 to August 31, 2020. In addition, TV coverage of CNN, FOX News and ARD was examined. 9/24/2020 PAGE 2 2020 Methodology This analysis includes the assessment and mapping of the media landscape from different perspectives and is based on extensive data collection from media reports made public on the Internet or on TV channels. The amount of news about the 2020 US election campaign is immense. The volume of articles therefore made it necessary to restrict the media set to a few select media sources. The selection of media was based on the potential reach and the volume of contributions of the respective sources. Despite this restriction, a total of 13,203 posts were coded in August alone. All articles that addressed at least one of the four candidates running for the American presidency and vice presidency were examined. In order to measure the degree of credibility and disinformation in the reporting on the candidates, the credibility and transparency of the source were defined as an essential analysis criterion in addition to the tonality of the reporting. For this purpose, pressrelations works with the NewsGuard Score - a rating system for online news sites. Media sources are analyzed by trained journalists based on nine criteria for credibility and transparency, and rated according to a point system, with the maximum being 100 points. If a media achieves a score lower than 60, it does not meet journalistic standards and is marked in red. Pages classified as credible are given a green icon. (For an explanation of the NewsGuard score, see 29 in the Appendix). In order to show potential differences in election campaign reporting from trustworthy and untrustworthy sources, four sources were selected from both US and D-A-CH media. (Media set see 32 ff. in the Appendix). The analysis - which was based on a media set (excluding TV) consisting equally of media with a Newsguard score above1 or below² 60 - also checked all articles for the presence of disinformation and coded them. The underlying definition can be found e.g. at bpb. In this regard, a distinction was made between two categories of disinformation: If the whole article contains misinformation or if it is an (in-)direct quote of a candidate with misinformation. Therefore, the code "Disinformation: yes" was divided into two subcodes: "Disinformation: whole article" or "Disinformation: statement by candidate". To assess whether it is disinformation, several websites specialized in detecting, checking and correcting misinformation were used Politifact, FactCheck.org, AP News, CNN. pressrelations and its project partners are politically independent and do not support any political parties, platforms, campaigns or candidates. If you have any questions, feel free to contact us. 1 Fox News (U.S), The New York Times (U.S), The Washington Post (U.S), USA Today (U.S), Der Spiegel (D), Welt (GER), Neue Zürcher Zeitung (CH) 9/24/2020 ² Breitbart News (U.S), Daily Wire (U.S), The Gateway Pundit (U.S), TMZ (U.S), RT Deutsch (GER), The Epoch Times Deutschland, Kronen Zeitung (CH), jouwatch (GER) PAGE 3 Coverage Over Time 2020 Highs and lows in the media coverage of the candidates Republican National Buzz Convention Kamala Harris nominated 700 for US vice presidency Trump campaign rally in Ohio Democratic 600 National Convention Kamala Harris announced 500 as Biden’s running mate 400 300 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 August 2020 9/24/2020 PAGE 4 Media Coverage 2020 High levels of exclusive coverage of Trump Articles Exclusive Focus Marginal Articles Exclusive Focus Marginal Mention 2359 4271 5015 974 2373 3037 152 Biden Trump trustworthy not trustworthy trustworthy not trustworthy Reach in billions Reach in billions 44,12 7,12 2,71 23,53 0,28 2,58 1,58 0,07 USA DACH USA DACH USA DACH USA DACH Articles and Ø Tonality Articles and Ø Tonality 7.469 1.048 2.267 422 4.176 413 1.090 65 - 0,19 - 0,23 - 0,06 - 0,13 - 0,04 - 0,11 - 0,25 - 0,05 negative positive -1 1 9/24/2020 PAGE 5 Policy Areas & Topics 2020 Similar priorities for both candidates Policy Areas Topics Policy Areas Topics by mention & tonality by mention & tonality by mention & tonality by mention & tonality 0 500 1000 1500 0 4000 8000 0 200 400 600 800 0 2000 4000 Home Affairs / Home Affairs / Election Campaign Internal security Election Campaign Internal security Biden Trump Economic & Fiscal Coronavirus Economic & Fiscal Inequality/Racism Policy Policy Unspecific Topic Coronavirus Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Inequality/Racism Unspecific Topic Health Policy Health Policy Health / Mental Election Fraud Condition of the… Social Policy Environmental Policy Media & Communication Police Reform Defence Policy / Social Policy Military Corruption Election Fraud Immigration Policy Disasters / grave Immigration Policy Media & accidents / acts… Communication Defence Policy / Education Policy Police Reform Military Gun Ownership Environmental Education Policy Policy Gun Ownership Corruption Health / Mental Disasters / grave Agricultural Policy Condition of the… Agricultural Policy accidents / acts… 9/24/2020 PAGE 6 2020 Policy Areas & Topics Comments and remarks The ranking of the policy areas is identical for both candidates with regard to the first four positions. This is not surprising as Biden appears in only four percent of all posts without a mention of Trump. However, based on the relative distribution in the policy areas Home Affairs / Internal Security and Environmental Policy, the challenger was able to position himself stronger by 5.2 and 4.0 percentage points respectively. When it comes to Environmental Policy, Biden also benefits from Kamala Harris and her commitment to the “Green New Deal”. Trump, on the other hand, dominates the political areas of Social Policy and Foreign Policy. The reporting is mostly neutral for both. Reports tend to be negative in the areas of Health Policy (Trump) and Defense Policy (Biden). In Agricultural Policy, both have the highest proportion of positive reporting. For Trump, the topic “Corruption” (61%) harbors the greatest proportion of negative reporting. 41% also reported in a negative light about Trump regarding the subjects of "Inequality / Racism" and "Election Fraud". The main topic regarding Joe Biden is the election campaign - 58% of the articles refer to it. These are mostly neutral in sentiment. Most of the negative reports are related to his mental health (52%). On the other hand, Trump receives a huge amount of coverage in connection with the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic only comes third for Biden, after the topic of equality and racism. 9/24/2020 PAGE 7 2020 Media Sources & NewsGuard Score Fox News, Washington Post, and New York Times dominate in terms of coverage Buzz Sentiment Reach Buzz Sentiment Reach number of articles average in millions number of articles average in millions 0 1000 2000 0 1000 2000 FOX News -0,08 FOX News 69.5 11.912 69.5 -0,15 7.851 Washington Post -0,31 12.858 Breitbart 100 42 -0,15 1.153 Breitbart Washington Post -0,12 1.892 Biden 42 100 0,09 5.608 Trump NY Times -0,31 16.822 NY Times 0,18 8.748 100 100 USA Today -0,22 2.522 FOX News -0,28 n/a 100 TV Gateway Pundit -0,04 130 USA Today 0,07 1.326 37.5 100 Daily Wire -0,14 420 CNN USA 0,12 n/a 47 TV FOX News -0,03 n/a Gateway Pundit -0,36 74 TV 37.5 CNN USA -0,58 n/a Daily Wire -0,19 244 TV 47 TMZ.com -0,20 63 TMZ.com 0,12 22 44.5 Buzz: 44.5 Buzz: positive negative positive positive negative positive neutral neutral neutral neutral WELT negative WELT negative 100 -0,21 2.068 100 0,09 808 Spiegel Online Spiegel Online 100 -0,29 3.122 100 0,13 1.136 NZZ NZZ 100 -0,17 156 100 0,07 50 Kronen Zeitung Bild Zeitung 59.5 -0,20 242 69.5 0,20 601 The Epoch Times ARD 15 -0,01 19 TV 0,16 n/a Bild Zeitung Kronen Zeitung 69.5 -0,25 1.798 59.5 0,11 62 RT Deutsch The Epoch Times 32.5 -0,23 15 15 -0,07 4 ARD RT Deutsch TV -0,34 n/a 32.5 0,22 3 Journalistenwatch Journalistenwatch 20 0,00 2 20 -0,25 1 9/24/2020 For an explanation of the NewsGuard Score, see Appendix | trustworthy, not trustworthy PAGE 8 2020 Media Attention & Tonality negative neutral positive US and D-A-CH media in comparison Medium Medium NG-Score * NG-Score * Fox News 2.153 1.417 215 450 WELT 404 161 22 51 69.5 100 Washington Post 1.832 799 149 219 Spiegel Online 352 130 28 40 100 100 Breitbart 1.592 970 104 259 NZZ 183 59 10 15 42 100 NY Times 1.149 598 110 216 Kronen Zeitung 137 35 3 14 100 59.5 USA Today 742 390 65 138 Bild Zeitung 118 40 6 17 100 69.5 Gateway Pundit 521 294 19 73 Epoch Times (ger) 135 30 3 7 37.5 15 Daily Wire 485 281 17 71 RT Deutsch 101 18 2 2 47 32.5 9/24/2020 For an explanation of the NewsGuard Score, see Appendix PAGE 9 2020 Media Attention & Tonality Comments and remarks Fox News and The Washington Post most frequently report on the candidates involved in the 2020 US election campaign.
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