Well, we (Jason Katz and I) finally finished our first Mock Redraft of the year – 18K+ words of discussion, strategy, debate, philosophical clashes. In prior years, we’ve been fairly on the same page. This year, not so much…which is good because it’s a healthy discussion of the different ways you can go with a draft strategy. Two very different approaches taken, you can decide which way you like overall or just round- by-round.

I’m planning my next Mock Draft(umentary) soon – my solo ride, so I can show my game plan in action. In this joint mock redraft just completed, we had to debate and compromise on what we were doing. We did our best to explain our different views and reasonings, but my upcoming solo ride will give an example of where I’m at with full control over the decisions – my game plan, my concerns, my improvs, etc. You will see that soon (likely picking from the #10-11-12 spot, as most FFM subscribers are…I’ll do a picking #1-2-3/early one as well, planned for).

For now, here’s about 20%+ of a full American novel of reading material with two people prepping for and executing a 16-round mock redraft from the #7 spot (which we hated, and picked for that reason) in a 12-team mock vs. FantasyPros expert/consensus rankings from all their various sources blended together.

Obviously, ADPs and player situations will change week-to-week ahead…this is as of late June/early July. Using the parameters...

Basic PPR scoring

QB (4pts per pass TD)

2 RB, 3 WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K, 6 Bench

*Also note…we were email chatting back and forth conducting this draft. I’m sure there are some typos, etc., but I’m not going to fine tooth comb 18K+ words of this chat. We did the best we could keeping it proper, so forgive any typos/grammar.

RC: Before we even begin the draft, let's discuss our strategy(s) going in. My main question to you is the question that, to me, starts every draft planning session -- What are we doing at quarterback(s)?

With picks 7-18-31-42 out of the chute...do we want to pursue a plan that sets Patrick Mahomes as a game plan (and then changes our expected valuation of Kelce-Tyreek) or bypass Mahomes and go into Mayfield-Murray with the fears that they are harder to predict where they will go in the draft, so we will be taking them earlier than expected.

We're targeting a Mahomes-Murray plan or Mayfield-Murray plan, and would plan accordingly. I'd accept, in 4pts per pass TD, a Murray-Goff plan but I'd rather go with Mahomes or Mayfield with Murray and use Murray-Goff as my fail safe. Either way, we don't leave this draft without Kyler, which means we plan to take way ahead of everyone else...but we want an established passer in case the Murray thing goes sideways, and the other top QBs are undervalued anyway.

I don't plan anything else, in 2019 preseason, without first setting up how I'm getting two of those top QBs with Murray (in 4pts per pass TD) being one of them.

Do you agree or disagree that it's discussion #1 in setting up the 2019 plan?

Katz: I have zero interest in taking Mahomes at his current ADP. We likely would have to take him round 2 to secure him and the only way he can justify that position is if he provides as much of a weekly edge over the rest of the league as he did last season. No QB in NFL history has thrown for over 40 touchdowns in consecutive seasons and very few have done it more than once in their entire careers. I firmly believe Mahomes is an all-time great in the making and will have multiple 40 TD seasons in the future, but he is not throwing 50 again. Plus, given how highly we view Baker and Kyler (and to a lesser extent, Goff), plus the medley of viable QBs late in guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson, the opportunity cost of selecting a QB anywhere in the first few rounds is just too great.

I don't think we can accurately predict any QB to be as much of a difference maker as Mahomes was last year. I certainly won't gamble away an elite WR or RB trying to do so. But we think Baker and Kyler can be that guy and both of them cost a lot less than Mahomes. Add in the fact that Mahomes' odds of getting close to last year's performance are even lower with a Tyreek extended absence and I want no part of Mahomes at his cost.

There are so many good fantasy QBs. We can reach a round or two for Kyler and then grab Goff, Lamar, or someone like Ben, Trubisky, or Dak in the double-digit rounds as an insurance policy. No reason to spend a top 42 pick on a QB. Position scarcity plus our evaluation of Kyler makes it a negative value proposition.

RC: I want to first hit on the Mahomes point you made because I think it is incredibly important because you're incredibly wrong...and everyone is, and it's a mindset problem I'm trying to break in all of us. I am going to beat on you to make an example for the rest of the audience.

I do not want to hear a Mahomes knock of anything about what TD levels QBs have not thrown for (at the high levels) from the past as the reason to shy away from Mahomes. This is not 1977. Or 1987. Or even 2017. The NFL has changed, radically. AND these new age quarterbacks are like nothing the world has ever seen before, as passers. Already better than any historical QBs you can think of...Montana, Marino, Elway, Favre, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers. It's not because Mahomes, Mayfield and guys to come are some special DNA...they just have the advantage of being great talents brought up in the era where they were throwing more passes in grade school than the contemporaries did their entire college careers (I'm sure Marino, Favre, etc., would be great in output like them had they been brought up in this era with new era coaches). If you want to be against Mahomes for ADP, what he does vs. cheaper Mayfield, etc., or schedule, or Andy Reid, Tyreek out too long...I can dig any of those arguments. But this 'he CAN'T DO THAT AGAIN argument is going to lead people to destruction, and it's bad thinking (even if he throws for JUST 40 TDs this season. There's just as much chance he throws for 55+ TDs this season as he does throw for 40-45. The stars didn't all lineup perfectly for Mahomes to have his one shining season he'll never repeat -- this was just the first performance, the opening act. Imagine when he gets really comfortable in the NFL what will happen? When it comes to the numbers these new QBs are putting up...history is thrown out. Don't use history in this situation...it's comparing apples and hand-grenades.

It's like the argument -- who would win a world war pitting the WWII United States 'The Greatest Generation' and the skills/life they had vs. 2019 'The Millennials' United States? The Greatest Generation would be toast within a week or so. It's not because they weren't 'The Greatest'...it's that the landscape, the playing field, the training, the weapons, the technology has all changed.

With all that being said...I am with you more than not on moving away from Mahomes because of the fact that it is a 4pts per pass TD and not 6pts (and +bonuses) and the bargain costs of Mayfield/Murray. But before we think that is totally genius -- if you bypass Mahomes, and set your mind on Mayfield- Murray, just note...you have to overspend on their ADPs to get it done because if you get cute, as we are all want to do, and try to wait 'one more round', and then miss them because s secret Baker or Kyler lover emerges...you've blown it, you've ruined the whole plan...for what? So you could quench some ridiculous thirst for these damn running backs. Every freaking time people sit down and plan out a draft they start worrying about the running backs first, second, and third...and yet, by Week 3-4 half of the top guys are hurt, benched, under-performing...and guys are popping up off waivers as RB1s every other week. I'd be cautious getting cavalier about "I can get my QBs later" just so you can chase the running back delusion again. No waiver wire QB is going to throw for 40+ TDs thrown in as an emergency starter because the main QB got hurt for some NFL team, but 20+ backup RBs could lead the league in rushing/fantasy if they had to take over Week 1 for some established RB getting hurt.

Mahomes's value here, the logic of entertaining him as a 2nd-round guy or if he falls to the 3rd...you know he's going to be a sensational producer...Mayfield and Murray we think strongly, but we've not seen it. We have seen Mahomes. It's guaranteed money as a top five total points scorer in 4pts per pass/PPR...strong likely #1-2 in 6pts per pass TD. That shouldn't be sneezed at. Locking in a near guaranteed top scorer is somehow not sexy now (mostly because he's not a running back).

I get the prudent spend on the QB opportunity this year (that Mayfield/Murray, for the price, is super- smart), but please don't use 'getting a great RB' as part of the hopes...as if it's the greatest, most logical thing you could do. It's an emotional trap we're all still brainwashed on -- getting a top RB. Case in point, the one player is who is the farthest away from his peers in scoring potential, I'd argue, might be Travis Kelce -- and we haven't started talking about designing a plan with him in it (but I think we should). You mentioned 'not gambling away an elite RB or WR' to chase Mahomes. So Mahomes and Kelce aren't elite/worth chasing because they are not an RB or WR, but somehow totally replaceable RBs are a slam dunk/can't bypass opportunity? The most replaceable/fixable fantasy position is RB...but for some reason we're all scared to death if we don't have four RB1s on the roster at any given moment, but QB and TE...ahh, any old one will do...can't not get an elite RB. It's nonsense. If you want history...there's the history of the top NFL/fantasy RBs not likely to repeat their great season in the following season. Usually due to injury. And with that said...eyeing Mayfield/Murray vs. Mahomes, I like that plan to spend elsewhere at RB-WR- TE early rounds. I just don't want Mahomes's FF-greatness to be dismissed, or his value as 'the best' fantasy scorer to somehow be seen as an 'overspend' or 'reach'. I could totally be down for seeing Mahomes fall to the 3rd-round and taking him even if I/we hadn't planned (because we thought he'd be gone).

OK, I agreed with you...but threw nuclear bombs at you before doing so. Apologies, I just made you a martyr I was hoping you'd be my muse on...and you were. Your reaction...

Katz: I have tried the QB early strategy despite the immense amount of data proving that it is a bad idea. I do not have access to your historical draft guides any earlier than last season (the 2017 and 2016 versions are lost in the annals of history), so much of this is from memory. Please correct me if I am wrong. Last season, you had Aaron Rodgers ranked as worthy of a top 36 pick. He finished as the QB4, behind Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger (and obviously Mahomes), both late round QBs, and not ahead of a number of other QBs by any meaningful amount to justify the lofty selection. Meanwhile, you preached Mahomes and Goff, both perfectly in line with the late round QB strategy, and it was fantasy gold.

In 2017, you again had Rodgers along with Tom Brady as worthy of top 36 selections. Brady finished as the QB5, Rodgers only played seven games and wasn't all that great in them. Neither were anywhere near worthy of high selections.

In 2016, I believe you were in on Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. Rodgers was the QB1 that year, but by fewer than 2.0 ppg over the QB2 and plenty of late round QBs emerged into mid QB1s.

I can go back a decade giving you numbers on how frequently the top QBs fail to provide any meaningful weekly edge and how frequently late round QBs emerge as useful fantasy options.

The only way Mahomes would be worth a second-round pick is if he comes close to last year's numbers. I agree that the modern NFL passers are far more prolific and ready for the big stage than in previous eras. With that being said, you are asking me to gamble on something that has literally never happened before in the history of football. The outlier of all outliers. I am not willing to do that. If Mahomes throws for 45 TDs this year and I miss out on it, so be it. That will not cost me a league. If I spend a second-round pick on Mahomes and he's just another QB with 35-40 TDs outscoring the QB2 (even assuming he is the QB1) by fewer than 2.0 ppg, then I've wasted that pick.

4 pt vs 6 pt passing touchdowns doesn't really matter because the reason QBs are devalued in fantasy is because of the replaceability of production and the fact that you only need to start one. The only real difference in 4 pt vs 6 pt is that rushing QBs have more value in 4 pt.

I would challenge you to name a scenario in the last decade where taking a QB highly has paid off. I would love to be proven wrong here.

As for the RB argument, that is something I am becoming more and more in agreement with. I used to be of the mindset that I cannot come out of the first two rounds without a running back because, as we know, the single most decisive advantage you can have is an elite RB. However, unless I am certain that RB is going to be elite, I'm coming around to the idea of just taking two WRs that I feel are bust proof. I think this will be a very interesting discussion to have once we actually get on the clock as the consensus top 5 picks (Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara, and DJ) will likely be gone. The optimal strategy may very well be to build around elite and high end WR talent while figuring out RB later because, as you said, RBs pop up all season long for spot starts and what not.

RC: My best argument for taking a QB highly paying off...is tell me where any non-QB highly has paid off and differently? How could you even tell what one player meant besides 'who scored the most points'? You are telling me that 2nd-round Mahomes is infinitely inferior to Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley in the top 5?

You can't even argue the players themselves head-to-head because it's more about what you took later or instead that mattered.

Weeks 1-16 scoring (4pts pass TD and PPR):

The top QB in 2018, Mahomes...72 pts ahead of #2, and Mahomes was a 5th-10th round pick last year depending upon when you drafted. 90pts ahead of #5 QB last year, 117pts ahead of #10.

The top RB in 2018, McCaffrey...8pts ahead of #2...CMC was a late-1st/2nd-round pick depending upon when you drafted. Gurley was #2...and abandoned teams the 2nd-half of the season. 51pts ahead of #5, 149pts ahead of #10.

The top WR in 2018, Davante Adams (late 2nd/3rd-round/sometimes 4th-round pick in 2018)...6pts ahead of #2. 30pts ahead of #5, 74pts ahead of #10.

The top TE in 2018, Travis Kelce (4th-7th-round pick in 2018)...8pts ahead of Ertz. 96pts ahead of #5, 167pts ahead of #10.

The top QB-RB-WR-TE last year were all not taken in the 1st-round last year...except sometimes CMC went late 1st. Why do I HAVE to get an elite top 5 player ONLY in the top 5-10 picks?

-- Rodgers last year...I was looking for the Mahomes, the QB who would single-handedly win weeks with their monster performances (especially in 6pts passing leagues). I also took Mahomes as my #2 QB before many in the league took their 1st-QB because I thought he could be the Mahomes. I also took Mahomes because Tyreek was the #1 strategy in my pre-draft prep. Combining them was a strategy that was more important to me than a 50-50 shot on who the next big RB would be.

Taking Rodgers higher and him not working out doesn't mean the idea wasn't a correct path...it was right logic, it was just Mahomes was the answer not Rodgers. it's why I almost always take my two QBs before most take their first...getting the IT nuclear bomb QB is huge (especially in 6pts per pass TD leagues or those with bonuses for things).

-- 4pts per pass TD vs. 6pts is HUGE!!!!!!!!

In 4pts/PPR, Mahomes was #1 in scoring over CMC by 19pts. In 6pts per pass TD leagues that number balloons to over 100+ pts spread...5-6-7+ pts per game with the high-end QB.

-- You look at the spreads above...Kelce is more important than any WR. You can find WR1 hopefuls up and down the first 100 picks. We're going round and round on QB v RB and then want to compromise by going 'then WR?' when we're completely ignoring the TE, which is my case for the QB...only now with the TE. There is no data to prove anything from the past. Patrick Mahomes didn't exist in 2016, so I really whether Aaron Rodgers was my call in the past and he finished #2 or #5 or got hurt. It's 2019, and Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray exist in a whole new world of offenses and pro-pass rules. With more rules on not hurting them too...how much is 'not hurt' worth in all the data? I think it matters...especially for RBs, it hurts their generic value.

Instead of arguing positions, we should really do an exercise I always do ahead of a draft -- what are the players we absolutely have to have, because of talent + spread in scoring away from the pack + valuation. Remember, last year? We started with a Tyreek Hill and then wanted to put Mahomes with him at some point, and thus we were free to take CMC (or Fournette or Jo Howard) if we had a late 1st or take David Johnson if we had a top pick. Then we wanted Evan Engram, but wanted George Kittle as the failsafe. Davante Adams was in the mix we were also hoping. Most of the players I named/that we all planned around were top fantasy scorers last year at their position. You can't win them all, but we were so right last year it led to the huge scoring totals, records and top records. The draft is for getting the most high-end talent possible and being ready to fix broken things (Rodgers' knee, Fournette's quad, etc.) from there.

Who are the 10 must-haves, regardless of ADP? Who are we looking at building this masterpiece upon? Then, from there, a path will start to emerge.

Katz: Obviously there is no "must have" in the first round because there are so many great talents and we are constricted by our draft slot. There are also many options in the second round and no one I feel like we must have - I like a lot of guys. So I will start with third round or later guys and, like you said, I will disregard ADP and whether based on ADP it should be realistic to get these guys. Here are my must haves. I don't have 10 right now so I will list as many as I have.

1. Kyler Murray

2. OJ Howard or Evan Engram

3. Jaylen Samuels

4. Tyler Lockett

5. Christian Kirk

6. Curtis Samuel

Unfortunately, I don't see a second/third round guy like Tyreek was last year to build around that we are certain will provide a huge positive return on investment. There are a lot of guys I like in the first few rounds, but I am okay with all of them; there's no singular player that is an absolute must like 2018 Tyreek. Perhaps one will emerge as the summer progresses, but this is where I'm at right now.

RC: My list would look like...(and I'm not saying we can get all of them, it's just the list I want to plan from) QB

1. Kyler Murray (because 4pts per pass TD)

2. Mahomes or Mayfield (because there is no reason to bet it all on Murray...and these guys are either starting, insurance, or a big trade chip in-season, and the biggest reason...keeping them away from others to use against us)

We should be able to walk away with Murray + ___ with Goff as the fallback #2 QB.

RB

Christian McCaffrey...the only PPR god I see. Everyone else I have a question or three about and would be fine scuffling for various bargains.

Leonard Fournette or Derrick Henry...to value 'elite' RBs that I see.

*Jaylen Samuels is on my list for later, but I can be OK without him. Not like James Connor I absolutely was not leaving last August drafts with.

WR

There's not a WR who I would want to plan around. I see so many great options outside the top 10 ranked by the masses.

The one guy who I would plan on of all...Allen Robinson. For the cost, he can be my WR1 that I can steal.

We got a lot of Robert Woods, etc., types to work with as we go.

I definitely want Curtis Samuel when it's time, so he's on the planning board. For the cost, he may be the best WR investment of 2019.

I'll have a hard time laying off Tyreek as he falls. If I knew he only gets a 1-2 game suspension, then he'd be on this list.

TE

Travis Kelce, to me, if can get McCaffrey-Kelce somehow to start in PPR, and then overspend on the QB plan -- I'm fine with everything else that happens.

Actually, if have Kelce and any top RB/WR with the first two picks, I'm good...knowing my QB plan to come.

If I have Kelce, I'd like to have a strong #2 TE like Engram, but if I have Kelce I'll chase my two QBs before Engram-Howard.

DST-PK

No DST that I have to have.

You know I want Tucker-Zuerlein, and I'm willing to spend early...ONLY if things are going my way at that point. When we get up to Round 10+...the next non-PK/DST guys we'll probably get in Round 11-12-13- 14-15, so in that case I'll pull the trigger on an early kicker. But I'm not set in stone on an early kicker, but I usually do it because I'm fine with what I want from Round 10-11 on. If that makes sense.

-- What do you think about Kelce as maybe the most key not-QB to plan on...before we comment on where/how/if to draft him at our #7 slot?

-- Do you buy my Allen Robinson push at all? I'm not saying go overboard, just hope he might fit just right into a plan...and be a WR1 hopeful at WR3 prices?

Katz: It's hard to imagine Kelce putting up better numbers than last year, but he is essentially a mid WR1. I am fine with Kelce round 2, but given my affinity for Howard/Engram, I would probably prefer a round 2 WR combined with one of them rather than Kelce and whatever WR we would get rounds 5/6.

You talk about getting Mayfield and Kyler as well as Kelce and Engram/Howard. That's just not feasible. Baker, Howard, and Engram all go within about a round of each other and Kyler's ADP has been on a rocketship for weeks now. I expect it to get as high as round 7. If our first seven picks are elite RB-Kelce- WR-Howard/Engram-WR/RB-Baker-Kyler, that's a losing proposition. Howard and Engram are great TE options, but they are terrible flex options. Kelce is a WR1. Howard and Engram are barely WR3s. We can't be taking WR3s in the fourth or fifth round. We have to start three WR and two RB. We would have a massive hole at either WR2 and WR3 or at RB2 and WR3. All for what? So we can take a bench player? It doesn't make sense.

I am a firm believer in drafting two QBs when I don't take a sure thing, which, in 2019, is literally just Mahomes. I would not back up Mahomes because I am never benching him, but without Mahomes, I want the game breaking upside QB in Baker or Kyler paired with a safe, reliable option like Goff, Ben, Lamar, Dak.

As for WR, I just don't see what you see with Allen Robinson. He had his moments last year and the playoff game definitely resonates as it was the last thing we saw of him, but the Bears have an abundance of weapons and I don't think Trubisky is good enough or will be allowed to throw enough to propel ARob to WR1 numbers. Sure, he will have WR1 weeks, but I expect ARob to be more of a low WR2/high WR3. He is not a must have at all for me. However, given his current cost, I think you can talk me into him in round 7.

RC: Don't look at taking two QBs as an operational log jam...look at it as -- if we're right, what would their trade value be? If Mayfield and Murray go bananas, we could trade one for whatever player you want to name in the 5th/6th-round. And we're not talking about 20015 when the #2-3 QB wasn't too far from the #7-10. We're talking nuclear bombs of scoring in Murray and Mayfield. The best RB/WR to take in round #6 is a nuclear bomb QB you can trade and name your price on what WR/RB you want (within reason).

ARob...a potential WR1, who is trading as a WR3, but worst case is a WR2 -- I'm just saying I like the value a la Robert Woods last year. I'm fine with a rotation of WR1.5s and no WR1s on my WR depth chart for FF. I like the value for the upside. One of the only WRs, if not the only one, trading #30+ among WRs that has a strong case, and has done it before, to be a top 5-10 WR in fantasy.

I love Engram, and Howard...but they're still the guy who was effectively benched last year for a spell by the numb-nut head coach and works with one of the five worst QBs in the NFL...risk. Howard works with Arians who always crushes TEs for fantasy...risk.

My Kelce risk is this religious belief that 'Mahomes can't do that again this year!'...now it's transferred to Kelce.

Can I ask this question -- is Mahomes going to throw less passes in 2019? Without any other parts of the argument...will Mahomes throw for +10%, -10%, or about the same amount of passes in 2019 that he did in 2018 (assuming healthy and he plays same amount of games)?

Do we believe Kelce is there 2nd-round, and if so would we take him?

Katz: A lot to unpack. First, I vehemently disagree with your notion that we can trade Baker or Kyler if we hit on both. No one trades for QBs because no one cares. I would rather just stream the position if I missed on my QBs than trade a relevant position player for one. And even going with purely fifth/sixth round guys, using 2018 as an example, the idea of trading Pat Mahomes for like Brandin Cooks, Kerryon Johnson, or even Julian Edelman doesn't seem like nearly enough for an elite QB. I never draft for the purpose of trading because it is way too speculative of a process, especially at QB. You would need to find a trade partner team that not only has a serious need at QB, but also has a player you need and has the depth to part with the position of the player you need. Way too many things need to break right for a QB trade to work out and if we hit on both Baker and Kyler and can't move one, the other one is literally a wasted spot. I am okay with taking a QB earlier than normal, but my second QB is not being taken until one of the last couple rounds.

At WR, I can get on board with your strategy of taking a bunch of WR2s that are relatively safe and have the upside to emerge into WR1s.

At TE, I could not possibly care less about Arians' history with TEs - Arians has never had a TE anywhere near as talented as Howard, who will essentially be his "WR3" and he will treat him as such.

Finally, to Kelce. While I am not opposed to Kelce round 2, I would not go so far as to say I would want to target him. TE is still a onesie position and I really do like Howard and Engram rounds 5/6. If an elite WR is still there, that is not someone I want to pass up. However, I am fine with entertaining the idea of taking Kelce and it is a conversation worth having.

RC: Did you take Mahomes as your 2nd QB last year, by and large in your many leagues, I can't remember? Also, will Mahomes have 10% more or less, or about the same pass attempts in 2019 as 2018?

Katz: I unfortunately owned Mahomes in zero leagues because I went with Goff everywhere and my second QB was, for reasons I cannot remember, not Mahomes. In retrospect, given how late both Goff and Mahomes were going, I should've just taken them both back to back.

I think Mahomes' pass attempts will stay right around where they were. The 570-600 range looks about right.

RC: If Mahomes is going to have the same pass attempt levels in 2019 as 2018, likely a touch more (he was 7th in pass attempts in 2018)...and then you would agree he will likely have as many yards passing (maybe more)...then why is it a given for everyone to think he won't flirt with 50 TDs again?

If attempts, yards, his skillset, his offense isn't going to change...and, in theory, is going to get better in his 2nd-full season, why do we think his TD passes will drop 20-30%+ and make him a weaker top FF QB? What's going to cause everything else to stay the same or improve/increase but his TD passes fall through the floor?

I ask about Mahomes for your draft's in 2018 because you would have had to have taken Mahomes well before others took their first QB in some instances, but I felt it was that important, and that move, which you would consider crazy in theory (early 2nd QB), would have changed a fantasy season.

I say that to note...it wasn't just isolating out one example to now say 'see' about this theory -- it was critical because it was 'Mahomes', a thing we didn't fully know could happen (but now we do). I think Mayfield and Murray fall in that same 'set apart' category...reekers of mass fantasy destruction in scoring, especially in 6pts pass TD leagues. I can find my way through, in-season, a bad RB situation to start a season better than I will be able to find these three nuclear weapon QBs -- Mahomes, Mayfield, Murray. Possessing two of them for protection/insurance on each other, as a trade chip, just keeping them away from being used against me -- it all has value.

The Mahomes 'levels'...the two-QB concept... You responses will quickly be...'in the history of football...' and 'no one in my league trades for QBs'...

I want to be clear on this, for you and for the audience -- if you are going to play 2019 fantasy with a 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007, and even 2017 mentality...you're behind the times. You think 'what happened before is the key to everything. I'm telling you that fantasy axioms were already wrong before, but now everything is changing so fast in football people aren't changing wiht it...in the NFL (most teams/analysts/media) and in fantasy.

I don't care that 'people don't trade for QBs in leagues'. yes, that was probably true in 2017. Before Mahomes, Mayfield, Murray (3M) existed. In February, on CFM, I wrote imploring people that Kyler Murray was going to break all the Dynasty Rookie Draft rules because his skill set + Kingsbury = fantasy riches beyond our wildest dreams. I said people needed to trade to get the #1 pick or as close as possible to be sure not to miss this because people would wake up to it soon. EVERY comment I got back was that I was crazy, even the most long-time FFM/CFM audience member that knows I'm a Messiah -- they told me in no uncertain terms that they didn't need to trade up, no one takes QBs that highly in Dynasty Rookie Drafts in their league, EVER.

What happened?

Murray is now breaking all the rules. He's a #5-6-7 ADP in rookie drafts. As you mentioned, his ADP in redraft is flying...and this is before people go bananas in August for him when they see.

Mayfield went from Jan-Feb QB2 to top five redraft ADP QB in March. Murray from not top 20 to now top 10 in redraft ADP.

What Mahomes, Mayfield, Murray can/will do in the NFL/for fantasy is unprecedented. I believe you, and many people, are making the mistake of using your 2012, 2015, 2017 experiences/understandings and trying to apply it to 2019...and the entire landscape has changed. Football was stuck in a rut, a 'trading range' it would be called in the stock market, for a while...but now everything is turning upside down because of special QBs coming in from college.

Before you respond back, take some time to consider if you (and you reading this) are preparing and playing fantasy 2019 using all 2010-2017 concepts/experiences?

I can remember my Dad, 5+ years ago, going off on how stupid smartphones were and 'who needs to text anyway' -- a few years later I don't know what his face looks like anymore because it's buried in his phone.

I can remember when Amazon was really getting up to speed, me thinking 'why would I shop online for stuff I can go to the store for?'. A few years later, I'm trying never to go into a store again...it's inefficient, less-informed about the product/reviews and usually more expensive.

I give those two examples because my Dad, myself, looked at new ways...didn't 'get it', and then dismissed it because our understanding/life flow was working just fine, thank you very much, but we had this 'new way' within reach but missed it because we didn't see the future.

I see Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray changing everything we know about fantasy (and their related weapons), I don't want to get caught in 'I can settle for Goff' if I can help it. I'd rather have Mayfield- Murray in the 5th-6th-7th than any two players you could name going in that range and even if I didn't have my bingo card filled out of starters. In 2020, everyone will chasing 3M...in 2019, we have a one- year window to get them reasonably, two of them (three of them for many in dynasty/deeper rosters...you're all welcome!!).

May missed the next big thing in 2018 (Mahomes) because they had their axiom about QBs...I don't me or anyone in the FFM family to miss out on this great, under-priced way to play 2019.

Are all your hesitations on my QB ideas (Mahomes early and/or making sure to have two QBs of 3M) because you know the ideas are bad/flawed...or because your rebuttals are all 'things that were true/the way things have always been?' and you're trapped from considering...not 100% buying just because I said it...but from considering it strongly because all the things that pop to mind have to do with the past experiences/what you were taught/what you've learned that are hard to let go. Let that sit for a bit before you type your answer (I'm using you as representative of what I would tell/have told or posed to many clients, etc., recently and let's let a new audience reading this ponder it as well). You still may not agree after consideration, and I'm not saying your ideas are not worthy or winnable...but let me pick at your internal programming -- do you need a software update in 2019 because the NFL is changing so rapidly because of these new things that have emerged? And if so, are you blind to opportunity/alternatives because you're outdated on your reactions?

Katz: I would go so far as to say there is a 0% chance Mahomes throws for 50 touchdowns again. I would not be totally surprised if he threw for 40, but if I'm taking Mahomes in the second or third round, that does nothing for me - I'm paying cost. Mahomes worked last year because he was a late round QB. That is why Baker and Kyler can work this year - the cost. Even with both of their ADPs climbing, Baker in the sixth or Kyler in the seventh (projecting what I think will be the landscape come August), has the potential to make a difference if one of them has that outlier season.

I know you have railed against history, but I am not just talking about assuming things will be the way they were - I am talking about not making a draft pick assuming that I will be able to correctly predict when something will happen for the first time ever. I don't believe in chasing outliers with high draft capital. I certainly can't get behind chasing so incredible of an outlier that it is something that has never happened before. If Mahomes ends up being the greatest fantasy QB of all time, so be it. And maybe my opinion will be different in 2020 if Mahomes throws for 45 touchdowns in 2019. I have no concerns about Mahomes being a top fantasy QB. I just can't say with any certainty he will be #1. I believe Watson, Baker, Kyler, and Rodgers all have the same level of upside.

To your point about taking two QBs relatively early, I do understand where you are coming from because it is ingrained into your entire set of rankings. It is something I have noticed over the years. You rank guys based upon ceiling; based up on best case scenario. And I get why. Taking a low end WR2 that finishes as a low end WR2 giving you solid 5-60 weeks with the occasional touchdown is not winning you any leagues. Taking Allen Robinson in the sixth round and being correct about him turning into a low end WR1 is what wins you leagues. But what happens when you're wrong? You missed on plenty of guys last year. So did I. We all did. If we are reaching for multiple QBs and it turns out those QBs are just any old QB - returning par value - then we've wasted the picks. I am prioritizing ceiling much more this season, but the possibility of being wrong must be taken into account. If we are passing up on someone like Adam Thielen or Leonard Fournette to draft Mahomes and even if Mahomes finishes as the QB1, if it's not by a meaningful margin, that's a wasted pick on a very replaceable position.

Having Mahomes in 2018 was clearly a huge advantage. But not having Mahomes was only a detriment when facing Mahomes. There were still 10 other teams easily matched up against at the QB position.

I remember the great QB boom of 2011, leading to the largest group of top two round QBs selected in the history of fantasy football in 2012 drafts. That was an absolute disaster. None of the QBs were worth it. But fantasy landscape changes do happen. Do you really think that in a couple years, people will be talking about the value in taking early round QBs again? Like you said, the QB play is getting better and better every year. There are more fantasy viable QBs each year which only devalues the position more. I would go so far as to say that in single QB leagues, there will never again be a year where we see a bunch of QBs going early. And it's not because "the masses" are blind to the value of an elite QB - it's because the value just isn't there. Running backs and Wide Receivers are the most important positions in fantasy football and I want as many great ones as I can get. If there aren't any I like, I'm fine with taking a QB (or a TE), but I am not okay with foregoing value at WR or RB in favor of onesie position.

RC: Why did we all assume Christian McCaffrey was a great RB1 grab (in PPR) last preseason when he never had 'done that' before? Should I downgrade McCaffrey 2019 because there's not way he can set the record for the most catches by a running back again? I mean...no one did that before...but why did we all strongly assume it would work last year? Why do we think he repeats this year...he's a top RB prospect for you this year, I assume? Why can McCaffrey repeat...and Mahomes can't? Volume? We expect both guys to get 2018 volume in 2019. Should we target McCaffrey as a bad pick early/an outlier season in 2018?

I'm not ranking players on best case scenarios. I'm ranking players based on what I seriously think is going to happen with their touch count, the surroundings, their schedule -- What good is it for me to just sit back and accept Tyreek Hill can't produce like a #1 WR because 1,000 of 1,000 football/fantasy people said that was the case for three years? Why should I have gone with the crowd on 'waiting to see' on Mahomes/2018 and they'll do the same with Kyler/2019? I'm the master of finding the 'outliers'...you call them outliers, I call it 'my regular workday'. I strung Mahomes-McCaffrey-Hill together last year...none of which had a top 3 fantasy season in their lives before. Worked out well.

After scouting the talent and projecting the possible situations (of talent rising to the top), I'm then looking at valuing the position they play and their production vs. the other guys at other positions. I had Mahomes last year, I know what possessing a massive weapon does week-to-week (or McCaffrey, or early Gurley for those who had him)...it makes up for other random sins. There's only a few players like that -- the real 'wow' difference makers. McCaffrey (PPR) and maybe 1-2 other RBs, DeAndre Hopkins and like 1-2 of OBJ/Julio/Adams (used to be Antonio, and is Tyreek not-suspended) and Kelce and Ertz (maybe) and Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray (and Mahomes-Mayfield more potent in 6pts per pass TD leagues). There's like 10 difference making players we could identify (even if ultimately wrong) -- it just so happens we'll like miss out on all but one of them at RB-WR-TE probably drafting #7 then 18th...except the QBs. We could possess two of them and work from there.

But we won't agree on my 2-QB thing here, so I'm good going after one QB (in 4pts it HAS to be Murray) and then grabbing a Goff love later. I'll point out where I would have taken QBs as we go, but we won't really take 2-QBs early for this exercise.

Aide from that -- we still don't have a great initial plan yet, just a lot of Mahomes talk...who were not even taking because we agree, the better value is Murray (and/or Mayfield).

If we lose our top RB Week 1, we won't even blink...replacement opportunities would abound as the season unfolds. Lose the top WR-TE-QB it's a huge drop-off in ability to replace. Your scenario here is a 3-WR league...so WR has a little more premium there, even though it's the deepest position to find value in. So, where do we even start at #7? My two questions to start framing together this plan...

(1) Your first thought at #7? That player likely dictates the #18 plan. Can I mention I hate this middle spot in the redraft? I really want to leave rounds 1-2 with Kelce in PPR (getting in on Mahomes action and arguably the biggest spread player in the game last year) but #7 is too early and #18 is likely too late.

(2) What round do we draft Murray, because if we don't get Kyler...I quit, I don't want to play this season anymore having missed on Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray. We ain't cutting it close...what round gets us Murray with the least amount of overspend? And do you agree...Murray is potentially going to out-do Mahomes/2018 (for fantasy) and maybe produce the single greatest fantasy season anyone has seen?

Katz: I don't like harping on a specific example because I know you are trying to make a point, but we've seen RBs catch 100 balls before and McCaffrey has now posted 110+ targets in back to back seasons. He has proven it's repeatable. Targets are also a lot more sticky and predictable year to year than touchdowns.

I hate #7 also, which is why I picked it. I really want to start out with one of those running backs so I put us in a spot where we can't. Starting with a WR is more challenging, but I think it is what we have to do. We have to assume the best RBs available will be Mixon, Le'Veon, Conner, and maybe Melvin. You and I agree that Conner is certainly not an option. So it's either Mixon, Le'Veon, or Melvin (if he's there) or we take one of DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams. While I have professed my desire to chase ceilings, I'm also fed up with drafting 2018 Leonard Fournettes and 2017 David Johnsons in the first round. I am absolutely certain about Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, CMC, and very close to it with DJ. I do not feel the same way about Melvin, Le'Veon, and Mixon. So my inclination, and what I've been doing in my Fantasypros and Rotoballer mocks, is to take the WR with the thought that we can always grab an RB in round 3 or 4 and go with a lesser version of the Single RB strategy and rotate our RB2 until we find one that inevitably pops up every year.

As for Kyler, this is tough because we're using fantasypros draft simulator and their rankings are terrible; Kyler is like QB15. I set the parameters to include the calculator ADPs, where Kyler is much higher. I am supremely confident we can get him round 7. There's a chance we can wait until rounds 8-10, but the decision to do that cannot be made now. We have to survey the draft board at the time and determine whether we believe Kyler will make it based up on the other QBs available while factoring in our own roster and whether there are WRs or RBs we like enough to even bother waiting.

We've written a novella together and the draft hasn't even started. I think it's long past time to do that. What say you?

RC: So to start, before we start...WR #1, Kelce if he's there #2, or go back-to-back WRs if Mike Evans is there (and Kelce gone)...again leaning on this is a 3-WR start league. Then look at Derrick Henry(?) in the 3rd?

So many WRs, though...I could see RB-TE/WR and then go from there.

Le'Veon and Mixon and Gordon are enticing, except I cannot be a part of drafting Gordon at fair value. If DJ falls to #7, I'll have a hard time not trying to make a new-Arizona offense case. Any interesting in really rolling dice on Todd Gurley?

I say, for this exercise, let's take Murray in the 6th...by the time we publish he may move up another 10 spots in ADP. I'm tracking 80-100 right now. I think the whole 4pts per pass TD draft is about him, and I can maneuver as I go from there -- all I really want is Kelce 2nd, and if he's not there it's just #7 pick blows and we'll let the draft speak to us because planning around it this year is not coming into sight.

Katz: I'm not opposed to Henry in the third. I prefer Fournette. If neither of them are there, it may just be WR again, which is why I hate starting WR because I love the WRs round 2 and I don't want to end up going Zero RB by accident.

I have no interest in rolling the dice on Todd Gurley. Based on where he is going, we can take a very good player in the same spot that doesn't have a malfunctioning knee.

I started the draft.

1.01 Saquon Barkley

1.02 Ezekiel Elliott

1.03 Christian McCaffrey

1.04 David Johnson

1.05 Alvin Kamara

1.06 DeAndre Hopkins

And here we are right where we expected to be. Is this Davante Adams?

RC: I absolutely hate the 1st-round from the #7 spot again. I'm going to love the rounds to come but I wish I could now trade this pick for an early 2nd and a move up some other round.

Do you go WR, hope for Kelce with Mike Evans as the backup pick or reach for Fournette 2nd as the #1-2 WR-RB?

Or go Le'Veon Bell (volume play...but 'Jets' and 'who cares about RBs?'), to lock in one real RB (in theory), and then go Kelce with the Evans backup?

If we go WR #1, which with a 3-WR league I'm fine with, can I propose thinking about Odell Beckham...vs. Adams and Thomas (all worthy)?

Katz: It looks like our choices are between Le'Veon Bell and Davante Adams/Odell Beckham. I believe in Beckham. I think he might be the most physically gifted WR in the league. And I think he's money with Baker. However, he is on a new team and we are projecting Mayfield to rise into the ranks of the elite. Rodgers is already there. Beckham has also struggled to stay on the field. Beckham is going to lead the Browns in targets, but Adams has no one else to compete with. He may lead the league in targets. We're talking about two of the elite of the elite so when splitting hairs, we have to go down the list of differences. Adams is less of a health risk, in an offense he knows, and tethered to one of the greatest QBs of all time with no target competition. Adams scored at least 16 ppr points in every game last season. I don't think either is the wrong pick, but I lean Adams because he has week winning upside and I know he won't fail me.

I'm not a fan of Michael Thomas this high (I think he's more of a lower WR1) because of his weekly volatility and his immense reliance on volume (seriously, if he does not see double digit targets, he is basically useless). I know the volume will be there, but I like guys with splash play upside and the ability to score points on limited targets when necessary. That is just not something Thomas can do so for that reason, I have him slightly lower than the elite guys at the top.

If we are going to go RB, I am fine with Bell. It gives us the flexibility to go WR the next two rounds (since we are almost certainly not going RB round 2) and even though he's on the Jets, he's going to touch the ball 350 times and catch a ton of passes. And who knows, maybe Darnold takes a step forward and Bell's touchdown upside is higher than we think.

I don't have a strong preference here. And hey, this is still just practice to see how our decisions play out. I am fine with with whatever you decide.

RC: We're nitpicking great options, but it is pick #1, so a little more 'what ifs'...

Adams is in a totally new offense...he's just used to Rodgers is the theoretical advantage, but lost is the advantage of 'like it's always been'. Adams has been clean/healthy, but Rodgers has not...a what if there.

OBJ I'm attracted to because I'm like you...best in the biz...but now working with maybe the best in the biz in Mayfield.

Rodgers? Hasn't averaged 300+ yards a game since 2011...the only time he's done it, shockingly. Did you know his 2nd-best yards per besides his 2011 is 281.8 yards per game (2013)? Now, word of the coach wanting him to stick to a script. No such thing will happen with Mayfield.

If Mayfield is going to throw for 25-50+ more yards per game and possibly 5-10 more TDs (I think Mayfield is going Mahomes of unbridled passing numbers)...advantage OBJ?

I like Adams, but look at his first 3 matchups out of the chute...could be a very slow start vs. CHI- MIN/Rhodes-DEN/Harris...DAL/Byron Week 5. I've been guiding people to skip Adams and look to see if he has a slow start then trade for him in-season, after we get a look at this new offense.

OBJ or Le'Veon? I defer to a WR over an RB, especially when I could see healthy/good OBJ with Mayfield leading WRs in scoring for FF, but I fear Le'Veon is about to get a little exposed in inferior NYJ...he could get a David Johnson 2018 experience.

I'm for OBJ dice rolling.

Katz: I support Odell Beckham here, but he has an even greater "new offense" concern than Adams does. I'm fine with Beckham because he's incredible and I believe in the Browns, but Beckham is undergoing far more changes than Adams.

RC: Agreed, but to compare them...

Adams new offense featuring the head coach potentially, and not Rodgers-Adams playing pitch and catch out of comfort/Rodgers doing what he wants. OBJ's new offense featuring Mayfield throwing 40+ times a game without coaching interference and wanting to set every record the NFL has ever had just to spit in everyone's face...and OBJ likely the WR the offense is built around. Nitpicking the two.

I like/love both guys but OBJ could be an off-the-charts #1 WR in fantasy this year...just this year, to prove the critics wrong along with Mayfield.

It's a weird emotion...I get excited drafting OBJ here, if we go Adams I'm kinda like thinking I'm already behind. No data/science there, just the emotion of it. I like the OBJ factor, and then the potential that many people don't really/fully believe in Adams (as a top guy) and he might be able to be had on the cheap(er) after Weeks 2-3 with that schedule.

Katz: I think you are speculating and placing too much weight on coach centric analysis. I'm quite confident that Adams will see more targets than Beckham. I am more confident in Adams to play football. We've seen both of them put up top 5 seasons. Adams feels a little safer and while I agree Beckham's ceiling is probably higher, I don't think it's enough to offset the concerns relative to Adams' safety. But it's time - make a call. I will go with whomever you choose on this one.

RC: Not sure if you mean on these two players or in general, but to speak to the general and just these two to cover it for the audience...

You're not taking the coaching into consideration enough. The coach, his philosophy matters. Jeff Fisher vs. Sean McVay. John Fox vs. Matt Nagy. Arians v. Wilks v. Kingsbury. Hue Jackson v. when Hue Jackson was gone. Those are the extremes but Fangio v. Joseph, Patricia vs. Caldwell shifted priorities. McAdoo v. Shurmur style. Gruden v. Del Rio. How does that not matter?

David Johnson is about to go through three phases of his career with extremes at coaching. Style of coaching matters for the talent/the fantasy production.

It's partially the coaching staff and partially the QBs they have to work with.

Odell is about to go into an offense where they want to push Mayfield, and Mayfield is great...so opportunity abounds.

Adams is about to go, potentially, into an offense that de-emphasizes Rodgers' improv skills...and the Adams-Rodgers improv is everything in making Adams 'the guy' lately. Not that he falls off into WR3- land...just quibbling about which of these guys has what barriers and opportunities. If I told you from the future one of these WRs (Adams v. OBJ) ended up a WR2-2.5 for 2019, both playing 16 games healthy -- you'd bet it all on Adams the one falling. That's the risk I'm speaking of...that 'feeling' (which leads to setting target levels, TD opps, etc. in projections) on the unsure nature of the coaching change in GB and whether it is a + or -- for the passing game. You know healthy OBJ won't fall because he's a force of nature. Adams might because he's a force of Aaron Rodgers...and how will this offense effect Rodgers' gifts/skills? It's not a slam dunk Rodgers is going to be given a long leash anymore.

Again, just picking at OBJ things v. Adams things.

Katz: I was referring specifically to these two coaches.

And if I had to pick one of these guys to end up a WR2-2.5, I would bet it all on Beckham if I had to choose one.

RC: I'm the opposite on that, but OBJ is in the barn...so, let's see if we have a Kelce debate to come or whether I'm just going to cry that he's gone.

Katz: Alright we've selected Odell Beckham and it's really immaterial for the purposes of strategy.

1.07 Odell Beckham

1.08 Davante Adams

1.09 Melvin Gordon

1.10 Todd Gurley

1.11 Michael Thomas

1.12 Julio Jones

2.01 Juju Smith-Schuster

2.02 Travis Kelce

2.03 Leonard Fournette

2.04 Joe Mixon

2.05 James Conner

We are now up at 2.06. Le'Veon Bell is still there. I don't see how it's not him. Does anyone else stick out to you?

RC: Wow, how the mighty have fallen. In PPR, I don't see how it's not Le'Veon. Antonio Brown and Mike Evans are names here too, but with Bell falling...I don't think we look that gift horse in the mouth.

Katz: I agree. I'm in on AB and Evans in this spot, but we are much better off coming out of the first two rounds with one WR and one RB than two WRs.

2.06 Le'Veon Bell

2.07 George Kittle

2.08 Dalvin Cook

2.09 Nick Chubb

2.10 Antonio Brown

2.11 Mike Evans

2.12 Damien Williams

3.01 Zach Ertz

3.02 Adam Thielen

3.03 Stefon Diggs

3.04 AJ Green

3.05 Keenan Allen

3.06 Amari Cooper

We've got a few options here. We could grab Devonta Freeman or Derrick Henry. I, like you, am not a huge Freeman guy, though. If we look towards WR, we've got TY Hilton, Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman, and the Rams. We are also super high on Tyler Lockett and I think we can get him next round if we want. How does that factor in to what we do now?

RC: If I were solo drafting, and especially if it were 6pts per pass TD, I'd consider whether I wanted to lock in Mahomes here and not have to guess when I might take Mayfield instead, knowing I'm taking Kyler 6th-round. We're going a different route here. We might have Lockett, Woods, Cooks to play with next round and I'd like to discuss your Tyreek thoughts if he is available next, especially given this is a 3- WR, but especially given I'd like to take Derrick Henry here.

Not going QB. Plenty of WR1.5-2.0s with WR1 upside next round. The tight ends I really stick my neck out for are gone, and too soon for Engram-Howard. 'Strong conviction' RBs are about to run out and drift into specialty guys, split role guys, and 'hope they take over' guys. I hate Freeman, as you know. I could see Derrick Henry as the #1 RB scorer this season, even in PPR, because he can flirt with 15-20 TDs. I believe Tennessee builds there offense around him...and this would give us three guys...OBJ, Le'Veon, Henry who is their teams go-to guy and little-to-no chance a talented backup comes up and takes things away. They are three guys I wouldn't have planned on (except Henry), but I can get behind all of them because they are their team's 'guy'.

4th-round, I think brings on a Lockett-Woods-Tyreek-? WR conversation...and I'm assuming the TE discussion happens in the 5th, and then Kyler in the 6th or I quit fantasy.

Katz: The idea that you would take a backup QB before having a full starting six (3 WRs, 2 RBs, Flex) is baffling. There's just no logic behind it. And Mahomes is completely off my board in this spot because I have the same reaction every time I do something like take a QB early. I see round after round pass with no QBs going and there's Baker or Kyler sitting there in round 6-7-8-9 and I'm wondering why I passed up a potential RB1 or WR1 for a QB. If we're right about Baker and Kyler (and get one of them), then there is no way Mahomes round 3 is worth it.

I'm fine with Henry here. We can get into Tyreek next pick. That should be fun.

TE in the 5th or 6th is pretty much what I've been targeting in all my mocks.

Kyler round 6 is probably too high right now, but I do think that's where we will have to take him in August to be sure we get him.

But one step at a time. Henry here? Yes?

RC: Henry for sure, with excitement. I'm way into Henry getting 300+ carries this year and possibly 15+ TDs. Love the value here...a strong RB1 candidate grabbed in the 3rd-round.

I don't let filling position dictate my strategy. I was crazy for doing it last year with Mahomes, and it completely changed my fantasy seasons. I did it FOR Mahomes for the prospect he could be something special for FF scoring -- the Texas Tech system with a QB talent brought to the NFL. Never has really happened before...a young QB given that long leash, but also that kind of talent. 'Generational'...I want to shoot for that type of FF-weapon when I can get it in round 5-10. I don't care about what position I technically need to fill. Especially RB. I'll drop three guys I drafted by Week 2 for two other RB shots and like another WR as sure as I sit here. I won't be able to upgrade/maneuver in-season at elite/high-end QB like I can at RB, and to a lesser degree WR.

I think Mayfield-Murray round 7-8-9 available is probably right today but I know in a month or so people will read this and they'll be 5th-6th rounders. I also think, reiterate, that this entire 4pts per pass TD draft is about Kyler Murray being a fantasy weapon the likes of which we have never seen before. I am not cutting it close drafting him. I will pay 2+ rounds ahead if I feel I need to versus locking in a 3rd WR that I'll probably grab an equivalent producing starter in round 9 or 11 or in Week 2. I won't find anything close to Murray at the other positions in the 6+ round -- but I am also not so crazy as to have/consider a cheap/great hedge if the Kingsbury-Kyler flop happens (which I think is about 0%). I'd consider Mayfield-Murray ahead because I can use or trade Mayfield, I still maintain. Mayfield (or Murray) has some kind of value even if he doesn't start for me Weeks 1-2-3-4-5. I'd very much consider Mayfield-Murray 6-7 (me solo) already possessing OBJ too. I like the strategy of going all-in on Mahomes-Tyreek 2018...because they can tandem destroy opponents many weeks...and they did in 2018. Mayfield-OBJ may have some components of that. We'll be considering Murray- Kirk/Isabella for that reason too.

It's not a 'taking a backup QB before six starters' theory...it's a 'specifically taking Mahomes/Mayfield and Murray early because of what they are going/give in spread of scoring vs. other top guys at positions' theory. I'm not reaching for Goff or Brees or Luck...it's for the 3M QBs only. Bash the theory, but don't give it a misleading label to dismiss it by. I'm targeting specific players/QBs for this breach of the way things are supposed to go.

I almost hope Tyreek isn't available next, so I'm not pulled by emotions...but I hope he is there for this discussion...

Katz: I completely understand the logic behind making sure we get Baker or Kyler because of the difference we think they can make. I just completely disagree with the notion that one has value while on our bench. Those weeks 1-4 matter. No one is trading for Baker or Kyler that early in the season because they won't fully believe yet. So we're burning a quarter of the season, minimum, with what we believe to be an elite talent at QB scoring literally 0 points for us. That matters. And I still think the likelihood of being able to trade one for anything useful is very low. Teams are not trading for QBs unless they have a serious QB problem (like if you drafted Stafford and Wentz, for example, in 2018). If someone has Rodgers, Luck, Russ, Watson, they're not trading. Our potential trade partner pool is limited and there's the added caveat that we need the team that actually fits the bill to have something we need and also be able to part with that player. Way too much has to go right.

But we do have Derrick Henry.

3.07 Derrick Henry

3.08 Pat Mahomes

3.09 Andrew Luck

3.10 Kerryon Johnson

3.11 TY Hilton

3.12 Julian Edelman

4.01 Brandin Cooks

4.02 Tyreek Hill

4.03 Robert Woods

4.04 Kenny Golladay

4.05 Devonta Freeman

For what it's worth, I think the computer team got great value on Devonta Freeman, but that's neither here nor there. Tyreek did not make it to us. It would've been interesting. It wouldn't have taken much convincing on your part to get me to sign on board.

At the RB position, if we want a third one, Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones are still here. I like Mack more than Jones because I just don't buy that Jones will see the volume people expect. Mack will be the feature back in Indy, but he will never be a true three down workhorse with Nyheim Hines and Spencer Ware around.

If we're looking back at WR, Cooper Kupp is the lone remaining Ram. Coming off the midseason ACL tear gives me pause this early. The leader of the 2019 hype train, Chris Godwin, is near the top of the list of considerations. And, of course, Tyler Lockett. I really don't see anyone else we would consider at this point. It's too early for a TE as I'm confident we can get OJ Howard in the fifth or Evan Engram in the sixth.

RC: Is it better to take a 3rd RB...because those two guys have heat to use or trade? Or just lock in the WR/Lockett or any other WR to debate?

I'm flexible here in some senses because I see Allen Robinson and Christian Kirk sitting there a round or two away...but we have a plan for rounds 5-6.

I think we go Lockett as Seattle's #1 WR, a serious WR1 threat in the 4th round. We're then looking at securing Engram next, even as an overpay by a round because he's that important (OJH on my mind but splitting hairs, I fear Arians' trend on TEs and I know OJH is different...but Engram is different and two different coaches have underutilized him now...he should be the #1 TE in fantasy every year with what he can do...more built for FF than NFL). Then I'm forcing Murray in the 6th just so we see how we play our way out of a QB overspend, to show that it is totally fine.

With Lockett still here, and guys like ARob and Kirk available...I am fine, big picture, getting crazy rounds 1-4 because I could fill my WR roster rounds 4-5-6-7 with no WRs the first four rounds. If I entered the season with Lockett-ARob-Kirk, I would feel totally fine with the value of all WR1.5-2.0s with WR1 upside all #1 WRs for their team. It frees me up to get crazy round 1-2-3 and maybe 4 to go with an overspend on Kelce-Mahomes in there. I'm willing to spend on my 2nd QB (if a 3M) early knowing I can get such WRs values. I don't feel like I'm hurting myself with early overspends to get guys I think make a huge difference.

Many of the WRs people took 2nd-round, I think I can beat or match them with my Lockett-ARob-Kirk options with guys like Coutee, Sutton, Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell to consider a few rounds after that when they're chasing DeVante Parker again (using silly examples, but there's a Parker sucker out there). We run out of viable Week 1 RBs quickly in every draft, ditto the handful of TEs to consider. WRs have a lot of value throughout the first 10 rounds+.

Katz: See I disagree on the WRs. I must admit in the recent days I am starting to warm up to ARob and I'm already in love with Christian Kirk and huge on Tyler Lockett. I am fine with those guys as huge parts of my WR corps. With that being said, they are not Hopkins/Adams/Beckham/Julio/MT/AB/Evans or even Thielen/Diggs/TY. I believe all three of our guys will outperform their ADPs, but we're talking about low end WR2 values being high WR2s/low WR1s or WR3s/4s turning into WR2s/3s. That's great value, but it still doesn't measure up to the elite of the elite. If we deploy Lockett, Arob, and Kirk against WR corps with two of those top guys, we are dead at least in the WR battle. I am glad we already have Beckham. I feel really good about Beckham-Lockett as our 1-2, especially give our two bellcow RBs.

The Arians TE history means literally nothing. When I say nothing, I mean absolutely nothing. It has zero impact into my opinion on Howard. The players dictate the scheme, not the other way around - at least not for coaches that aren't complete garbage like Jeff Fisher or John Fox. Bruce Arians will use his weapons properly. Howard is going to be the third pass catcher in a high-volume offense. If he is there in the fifth and we want to go TE, he's the guy.

As for the fourth, I think we're good with Lockett, right?

RC: I'm good with Lockett.

Yes, a 2nd-rnd WR is more productive than a backup QB...straight up comparison. But you'd eventually have to take a QB later, and I a WR (in this scenario) and I'm saying I could be happy with an early Baker(4th-5th just for argument sake)-Allen Robinson (7-8th) Combo (knowing Kyler 6th), while someone else goes Lockett 4th and some RB hopeful in the 8th they'll probably dump.

Just because I take a 2nd QB early doesn't mean my 9th round WR won't beat someone’s 3rd or 5th, etc., round WR -- if I believe there is great depth at WR.

Using 3rd and 8th round examples. I'll take Mahomes + ARob vs. any 3rd-round pick + an 8th round QB (that isn't Kyler-Mayfield). I'm especially interested in a Mahomes early, for an example, if I already got Kelce and I'm eyeing if Tyreek might fall too far.

I'm not saying these QBs are the only way and everything else is nothing/not worthy. I could win a fantasy league if you barred me from taking any of my 3M QBs. I'm just making the case that an alternative path is worthy of consideration and that there are layers to the plan, and you can play betting big on things we haven't seen before...like Kyler. You can win other ways, but you can win my way too...and get what you want in the draft without a lot of 'seeing what happens'. I'm trying to do the best in my draft but I know I can/will need to fix things in-season as well. I believe I've able to improvise at high-end RB and WR better than at QB-TE...when top-top dogs are gone at QB-TE, no one (rarely) is popping up just as great off waivers or available in trade as easy.

I had a masterful season in 2018...my Mahomes-Hill-McCaffrey like base was a war machine, in the regular season, and then it got beat in the playoffs by waiver wire/forgotten Derrick Henry and/or waiver wire C.J. Anderson and/or waiver wire Damien Williams.

All that said... Engram with the 5th pick or you'd rather go Howard? I'm an Engram guy, but Eli/Shurmur scares me. I'm an OJH guy, but Arians+TE scares me...but I know, in the OJH case you now are good with going against history and believing in a brave new world (which I think is worthy of believing in to a degree)...but Mahomes has 0% chance of 50 TDs because it's improbable because of history :). "Arians has never had a TE like this" = good/sound logic? Mahomes repeating what he just did because my assertion we've never seen a QB like this/could actually improve with experience = bad logic?

Just stoking the flames !!!

Gun to my head I go Engram but I realize the risk (Shurmur can't see it) and OJH upside if Arians changes his ways because he can see it. You pick it since I am insisting on Kyler in the 6th.

Katz: We've agreed on Tyler Lockett.

4.06 Tyler Lockett

4.07 Marlon Mack

4.08 Cooper Kupp

4.09 Aaron Jones

4.10 Chris Godwin

4.11 Josh Jacobs

4.12 Alshon Jeffery

5.01 Sammy Watkins

5.02 Calvin Ridley

5.03 Deshaun Watson

5.04 Jarvis Landry

5.05 DJ Moore

The next run of players didn't really see anyone we were eyeing get selected. I am quite confident that Evan Engram will be there round 6 if we want him. I just don't know how you can put Engram ahead of Howard. I love Engram as a talent, but his ceiling is just lower on the Giants than Howard's is on the Bucs. Say what you want about Jameis Winston as a talent, but he's way better for fantasy than the ghost of the ghost of Eli Manning.

I like your attempt at pointing out Arians' history with TEs, but it's not eve close to the same thing as Mahomes. A QB has never in the history of football thrown for 40 TDs back to back seasons. There is a 0% chance Mahomes throws 50 TDs this year. Now to be fair, Mahomes can lose a handful of TDs and a bunch of yards and still be the QB1, but the focus here is on history. Arians with TEs is an irrelevant history because I can point to how Arians uses his best pass catchers. The fact that Howard happens to play TE means very little to me, except for the part where we can use him in fantasy and he should give us an advantage at the position over 2/3 of the other TEs in our league. The reason the historical analysis on Mahomes works is we have seen many prolific QBs in the past and can draw conclusions about what this current elite QB will likely do. The reason the historical analysis doesn't work with Howard is the same reason it doesn't work with Beckham - Baker Mayfield has never had a receiver like Beckham and Beckham has never had a QB like Baker, but I see the talent in both of them and believe it will work spectacularly. That is not the same as you seeing the talent in Mahomes because that's not up for debate. We know Mahomes will produce. The historical argument is that he won't repeat his historic 2018 season. We have no reason to think that Arians will dial back Howard's usage simply because he didn't use replacement level TEs in the past. It's all about expectations. We don't need Howard to become Travis Kelce for him to be worth a fifth-round pick. We need Mahomes to be Mahomes to be worth a third-round pick.

That's too much on Mahomes vs Howard. Howard vs. Engram. I like Engram. I just like Howard more because he is in a better situation. Higher touchdown upside. Higher opportunity due to the better offense. If you want to take a WR or RB here and roll the dice on Engram round 6, we can do that. I vote for Howard.

RC: I'm good with your call on OJH over Engram, because it's Kyler in the 6th. You cannot veto it.

Bruce Arians and the tight end...I can go back to 2001 when he was the Browns' O-C...then the Steelers year's with Ben...the Colts 2012...and all five seasons with Arizona. He's never used the TE big in the passing game because he needs them in to block more in his 'system'. The teams he's built good offenses for never pursued athletic, pass catching TEs...there was a reason...not a big need/desire.

Pat Shurmur has never seen a tight end like Evan Engram...and he quickly reigned him in to block more in his system as well. He didn't wake up to Engram until late in the season because he had lost so many other options. In fact, Shurmur benched Engram mid-season...a mismatch nightmare, a TE weapon of mass destruction...on a team dying for offense at certain points...Engram was on the bench for a better blocking TE half the game.

I'm not saying Arians isn't going to change, but your fooling yourself if you don't think there is a 25-50% chance that an old-school head coach who thinks he is the smartest offensive mind in football, one who never has used the TE as a weapon nor has pursued high-end TEs for his passing game anywhere he's been the past 18 years -- he's now going to change his style because O.J. Howard made him do it? This is the guy who didn't think David Johnson was ready and thought he was a nice compliment to the great Andre Ellington (and then Chris Johnson as well)...only when Ellington-Johnson got hurt did Arians have to turn to David Johnson. Arians might discover OJH, even by accident, but I don't think it's a 100% given arrogant, old-school coach changes his ways. I mean, hell...he's going into 2019 with Winston making $19M and a history of Winston problems, and his big Plan B to Winston was signing Blaine Gabbert. I'm not betting 100% confidentially Bruce Arians finds religion because OJ Howard is too awesome for him to behold. I wish the NFL worked like that, I really do. The problem of this choice is, Engram is facing just a stupid an idiot move with the Giants insisting on Eli with the Daniel Jones Plan B.

I'm with you...I hope OJH breakthrough, he deserves it (as does Engram) but I don't want to bet on either, really, as much as I love them both as talents...I fear for their coach-QB combo leading them astray.

The risks with Engram-OJH 2019, makes me love/value Travis Kelce (and Kittle) more and more, way ahead of consensus. The point spread Kelce can bring is stunning compared to 'the field'. If Winston implodes again...get ready for Gabbert-to-Howard hopes and dreams!!

Katz: In reference to the Kelce point, I do think that in most real drafts come August, Kelce will be there at our second-round pick. As for Howard, of course there is a greater than 0% chance Arians messes it up. But those odds are no better or worse than Engram and I think Howard has the higher ceiling.

5.07 OJ Howard

5.08 Robby Anderson

5.09 Tyler Boyd

5.10 Desean Jackson

5.11 David Montgomery

5.12 Phillip Lindsay

6.01 Mark Ingram

6.02 Kenyan Drake

6.03 Aaron Rodgers

6.04 Mike Williams

6.05 Will Fuller

We still need a third receiver and a flex, but I'm feeling very good about our chances to nab Christian Kirk next round. Kyler Murray is who we were targeting the 6th and even though the fantasypros rankings are such that we know we can wait until the double-digit rounds on Kyler, we're trying to be realistic here; doing a literal fantasy fantasy draft doesn't help anyone. But Baker is also still here. I'm with you on the QB here because this is that exact spot I was talking about where I don't love anyone and there are a medley of guys of relatively equal value I think we can get in the next three or so rounds. We could reach a round for each one of them or we can just take the QB here. I think the QB is the right move. The question, I pose to you, is which QB?

RC: 4pts per pass TD has to be Kyler over Mayfield-Mahomes. The power of Mahomes-Mayfield is 10+ TD passes ahead of the field/20+ fantasy points ahead of the expect lead in 4pts per. What Murray might do as a runner alone is RB2 work, then hook on his passer skills in a pro-passing game offense/coaching staff...I wouldn't be shocked if Murray scored 450+ pts in 4pts per fantasy this season. Mahomes scored 417 last year, to lead everyone. Mayfield and Mahomes can fight for 400+/- in 4pts (and maybe hit 425-450 in 6pts as a high water mark). Worst case, I think, Murray is in the 375-425 range (4pts per pass TD) trying to best Mahomes-Mayfield.

Murray may (at best) beat Mahomes-Mayfield by 75-100+ (4-5 ppg) and then beat #4-10 QBs by 125- 150+ pts on the season (around 8-10pts a game) on avg.

Murray rushing for 1,000+ yards this season is not out of the question.

Katz: We know we can wait, but we're taking Kyler.

6.06 Kyler Murray

6.07 Sony Michel

6.08 Christian Kirk

6.09 Hunter Henry

6.10 Tarik Cohen

6.11 Dante Pettis

6.12 Matt Ryan

7.01 Corey Davis

7.02 Baker Mayfield

7.03 Marvin Jones

7.04 N'Keal Harry

7.05 Evan Engram

7.06 Sterling Shepard

We can go WR or RB here. I think one of these next two picks has to be Curtis Samuel, whose ADP is also on a rocket ship. I also like Tevin Coleman in this spot. There are other names to consider like Keke Coutee and Courtland Sutton, but these two are the top of my list.

RC: Now that we have QB-2RB-2WR-TE out of the gates, I'm wide open and leaning WR, since we're in a 3WR start scenario. I'm not against an RB, but at this stage we're getting into RBs with warts and they'll be guys we like the next few rounds, and we'll churn RBs starting Week 1 and every other week because RB gives us that opportunity, I'm not worried about RB depth at this stage because there's always RB depth all season, ever churning.

I lean WR, but if I thought I could get Coutee-CSam-Sutton in the 8th, I could see taking Tevin Coleman and if he is the starter people will go nuts and you can trade him or use him. However, if I'm not mistaken...is Allen Robinson still available? If so, I make a pitch for him because I think he's going to be a WR1.5 with WR1 hopes...Trubisky's go to and a former WR1 in crappy circumstances...now, a year along from hsi ACL rehab + another year with Mitch/Nagy offense + Trubisky should get another step better. Coutee-CSam-Sutton should be there next round if we want, but ARob is about to go.

Katz: I forgot about the second year removed from the ACL tear and that really resonated with me. It's probably the biggest selling point for me to believe ARob can bounce back. It certainly isn't Trubisky, who is certainly better than the masses expected, but nowhere near as good as you propped him up to be. But no, ARob was gone at 5.04.

RC: Man, that's early on the ARob pick...earlier than I expected.

You pick between Coleman or any WR you like...I could go either way. There's pros or cons to either.

I can't believe Trubisky has already peaked. I was hoping he'd get better each year in his early stages. I guess his career limits have been established and I didn't get the press release.

2.0 TD passes a game, 240 passing yards, 67% passer from Week 4 on when they started to change the offense...a 2018 with a new coach, and all new WRs (missing his #1 WR for 4 games) and TEs across the board in his 2nd year in the league...and he was playing hurt middle of that run. Yep, there's no hope of growth/increase here. If can get into a 2.0 TD passes per game + 67%+ Comp Pct pace for a season -- only six other NFL QBs hit those levels for the 2018 season.

You can take 'peaked'. I think he'll get better...especially considering he played one season as a college starter. Best tools/Five-tool QB prospect I've ever seen coming out of college. Whether he becomes a top 3 NFL great is in question, and I'm betting against it today because better talents with more reps as passers from college high-volume offenses are ahead of him already (Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray- Goff)...he has to improve quite a bit to be a top 3 QB and fight within a lower pass attempts offense (like what holds Russell Wilson's raw numbers down). But he can be a top 5-6 NFL QB + the #2-3 runner at QB in the NFL (assuming LJax will be a thing of the past in 2-3 yrs) and can translate that to a top 3 fantasy QB eventually because he's such a dangerous runner.

Katz: Oh come on, don't put words in my mouth! I never suggested Trubisky can't improve or become the QB you scouted out of college; I just don't believe it is going to happen. As you said, there's just a huge influx of talented players at the position that Trubisky can be a very good QB, but still technically be a below average QB relative to the rest of the league.

I want Tevin here because he is the last RB that I think comes with any sort of floor while also having a pretty high ceiling. He would be our third RB and we can still find those gems throughout the season.

As for WR, I have to believe we will be able to get one of Samuel, Coutee, or Sutton next pick (although I'm not as in on Sutton as you - I prefer DaeSean Hamilton at a lower price). Pulling the trigger on Tevin. Let's see if this works out.

7.07 Tevin Coleman

7.08 Eric Ebron

7.09 Chris Carson

7.10 Jared Cook

7.11 Geronimo Allison

7.12 Drew Brees

8.01 DK Metcalf

8.02 Carson Wentz

8.03 Keke Coutee

8.04 James White

8.05 Golden Tate

It looks like the Tevin pick was a good move. We can now take our WR3. Coutee is off the board, but we still have Sutton and Samuel. I am partial to Samuel here and I do think 8th round is the lowest we will be able to get him come August so this seems about right. Cam Newton has never supported two fantasy viable WRs and there's the Christian McCaffrey problem when it comes to targets, but I just believe in Samuel's talent and the fact that he and DJ Moore will both be mid to low WR2s rather than Moore ascend to this high WR2 and Samuel be significantly lower as a mid to low WR3. Do you want to sell me on someone else?

RC: Yeah, the more I thought about it...your Coleman call made much more sense because of his general value, and upside if JMK gets moved, and he's a running back. Yeah, we missed Coutee (who probably heard his name and popped his hamstring) but we still got Samuel-Sutton to work with.

I'm more of a Samuel guy...and I love Sutton so much, but I don't know what levels of passing are going to happen in that offense and if Drew Lock gets pushed in forget it. I'm so into Samuel because I really do believe, watching him play in detail, that he's a Pro Bowl talent technician as a WR...but that he could also be a legit NFL C.O.P. RB. He gets 1-2 carries a game to go along with his receiving abilities...he'll be better for FF than the NFL. There's Cam risk, I agree, but I also swear I saw Cam making Samuel his go-to as the season unfolded and then Cam got hurt and changed the game. I also think as Cam's running days end, he'll have more pass attempts (whether he completes them is a different story).

If you came from the future and told me one of Sutton or Samuel definitely was a fantasy WR1 in 2019...I'd bet 70-30 it was Samuel, so for that reason I'm voting for Samuel/

Katz: We're in agreement on Curtis Samuel.

8.06 Curtis Samuel

8.07 Russell Wilson

8.08 Cam Newton

8.09 Bears

8.10 DeDe Westbrook

8.11 Larry Fitzgerald

8.12 Courtland Sutton

9.01 Lamar Miller

9.02 Mecole Hardman

9.03 Anthony Miller

9.04 Marquez Valdes-Scantling

9.05 Derrius Guice

9.06 Latavius Murray

We now have our entire starting lineup set. In building our bench, the focus should be on pure upside here. Who can we take that can severely outperform his ADP? I see a couple guys at various positions to consider. We have Rashaad Penny and Royce Freeman at RB, both current backups, talented, and with significantly more draft capital than the starters ahead of them, with the potential to take over their respective jobs at some point. We have DaeSean Hamilton, my favorite Broncos WR. And we can even consider looking to TE. I know we already have OJ Howard, but David Njoku has upside as the potential third man in Baker Mayfield's target hierarchy. Njoku is definitely not my preferred option here, but in the interest of a true survey of the current draft board, I felt his name was at least worth mentioning. Which direction are you leaning?

RC: I love Penny, but I have a feeling that's a guy who frustrates behind Carson for weeks, gets dropped after 3-4 weeks of nothing and then he pops and everyone goes rushing back in trying to get him. I like Freeman, but not so much for PPR. Penny has the more PPR upside here. Jaylen Samuels is in my 'reach' option as well...my favorite of all three, personally.

There's some excellent upside talent at WR...Isabella (with Murray) and Parris Campbell.

I'm down with Njoku, in general, because of the Mayfield opportunity...but I am suddenly way into Darren Waller as a FF TE1...and the kicker being we get him anytime we want.

The guy who could be a homerun of homeruns here, that fits with our QB...and that this is a 3-WR league where we can use depth -- I think it's Isabella who could be Arizona's top producing PPR WR this year.

How do you feel about Isabella...and Waller as our last pick to take all the worry about 2nd TE (which I definitely want) away? Allows us to focus everywhere else prior.

Katz: I think our bench spots are best filled with RBs that could pop. I mentioned Njoku purely because he at least has the ceiling to produce like a WR2 if things break right in that offense. Even if Waller ends up being a viable TE option, his ceiling is comparable numbers to a low WR3, at best, probably more like a WR4 - that doesn't have much value. I don't see him as someone worth drafting unless he's our primary TE in a scenario where we passed on Howard and Engram and just waited on the position.

I will put this bluntly - Andy Isabella is an absurd pick right now. His ADP is the 14th round. I get reaching for our guy to make sure we get him, but it's round 9 - there's no reason to take Isabella now. He will be there rounds 12/13 if we want to reach. We can even reach round 11. Reaching to get your guy is fine, especially in the later rounds where ADP means even less, but reaching six rounds is just unnecessary.

I'm fine with targeting Isabella. I definitely want Jaylen Samuels on this team as well. I think it is safe to assume we can secure them both when we want. That gives us three more bench spots to play with. One of those spots will be a QB. I believe the other two should be another WR and another RB. If you don't want to take Penny or Freeman because of the ppr aspect, there really isn't another RB I have any strong desire to draft other than Samuels. My pitch is to go WR4 here and take DaeSean Hamilton. We come back with an RB next round. Given how late Isabell and Samuels are going, we can then reach for Justin Tucker, grab Samuels and then Isabella before taking a second QB and a defense in the last two rounds. What do you think of this plan for the remainder of the draft?

RC: I think Waller will be a surprise TE1 right out of the gates, and if I believed that I would love him at Round 15/16. His ceiling is top 5 fantasy tight end...if you believe Gruden believes like I believe Gruden believes. Slightly poor man's, taller Evan Engram. Njoku is a sounder bet, but taking into consideration ADP values...I like to bring Waller into the conversation.

I can go with your proposed plan. I had it my mind that Isabella was a 10-11 round ADP, but I see he is 14-15th, so no reason to push for him yet. I want in on Samuels for the off chance that he works independent of whatever Conner does and he gets some weird WR/RB TE/RB designation again because the Steelers get wacky in the way the use him as the weapon they should + the odds he just beats out Conner because he's a better RB than him, plus the high-end receiving capability.

I don’t want to leave a draft without Samuels or Isabella, because they are as good a late-round picks as there is in this draft.

I'm pro-DaeSean. Little worried Flacco won't make it hum like I want, but there's a 'but' with every player from here on in.

Playing the ADP game, we should go Samuels first though, right?

Katz: Right now, the problem we're running into has to do with fantasypros' software. In this simulated mock, we can wait 3-4 rounds on Jaylen Samuels and be guaranteed to get him. But that's not reality. In a real draft, we would need to pull the trigger now (and guys like Penny, Royce, Henderson, Sanders would be long gone). For the sake of realism, I say we go Jaylen here.

RC: That's what I thought too on Samuels. He's my guy, so I'm down. And to reiterate, I like Penny like most people...I just think the odds you have a painful/non-productive hold for 2-3-4-5 weeks are elevated. He's a guy I think I can squat on later off redraft waivers or trade for with some ease if he's stuffed behind Carson. However, I don't rule out he's such a force that he pulls into a split with Carson...but that's not 'awesome' for FF either. It's going to take a bit for Penny to shed Carson/Carroll love connection. Samuels can operate outside of Conner and has a similar chance to move into a quick split, and will eventually beat out Conner like Penny will Carson. Samuels has a quick route to it and more viability for PPR while in the split role...and Penny will never be a shock TE or WR designation.

Anyone who went Penny now and Samuels later is not crazy at all to do so. Royce Freeman is a non-PPR discussion and we're not in that format here.

Katz: We're in agreement on all fronts here.

9.07 Jaylen Samuels

9.08 Rashaad Penny

9.09 James Washington

9.10 Emmanuel Sanders

9.11 Darrell Henderson

9.12 Kareem Hunt 10.01 Miles Sanders

10.02 LeSean McCoy

10.03 Devin Funchess

10.04 DaeSean Hamilton

10.05 Jordan Howard

Well we missed out on DaeSean, who I seem to like more than you anyway. We currently have four RBs and three WRs with three more skill position players to select out of our six remaining picks given our plan of taking a second QB and the need to take a kicker and a defense. We're already planning to take Andy Isabella. There's really no WR I'm in love with right now. I think Tyrell Williams at least has a ceiling. Donte Moncrief if he wins the WR2 job in Pittsburgh is intriguing. Michael Gallup is the WR2 in Dallas for whatever that's worth. We could take a shot on another running back. I'm really open to ideas here.

Katz: We're in agreement on all fronts here.

9.07 Jaylen Samuels

9.08 Rashaad Penny

9.09 James Washington

9.10 Emmanuel Sanders

9.11 Darrell Henderson

9.12 Kareem Hunt

10.01 Miles Sanders

10.02 LeSean McCoy

10.03 Devin Funchess

10.04 DaeSean Hamilton

10.05 Jordan Howard

Well we missed out on DaeSean, who I seem to like more than you anyway. We currently have four RBs and three WRs with three more skill position players to select out of our six remaining picks given our plan of taking a second QB and the need to take a kicker and a defense. We're already planning to take Andy Isabella. There's really no WR I'm in love with right now. I think Tyrell Williams at least has a ceiling. Donte Moncrief if he wins the WR2 job in Pittsburgh is intriguing. Michael Gallup is the WR2 in Dallas for whatever that's worth. We could take a shot on another running back. I'm really open to ideas here.

RC: Can I propose that (we have what 6 picks left?) we focus on the following players...

2nd QB: Lamar Jackson...to give us the market on the running QBs, which I think is an obvious edge in 4pts per pass TD leagues. Murray and Jackson running totals could be 'wow' this year. I'm fine with going Goff for security.

2nd TE: since this is a bit of a flyer thing, a 2nd-TE...Darren Waller, because I really do think he might shock the world -- and if he doesn't, we fail fast and move on (also eyeballing Ian Thomas as an option that Greg Olsen cannot answer the bell).

PK: Zuerlein or Tucker to get 'best in class' since we can.

DST: Dallas or NE (because of schedule starts), and I lean NE but hate that they play PIT Week 1.

WR: Isabella...as a brilliant pick to go with Murray.

That's five players, and I'd guess the 6th should be a WR in this 3-WR format...unless something else screams out.

Do you agree, or what is your alternative names to consider? What would the mystery 6th guy to target be? Once we agree on the remaining players, then the question will become -- how best to draft them to get them all...but let's get an agreement/target on the player names from here.

Katz: I think we should take another RB because RBs have a better shot at popping out of nowhere. It is unlikely we find a WR that is going to do that. As for TE, I don't see any value in a TE that doesn't have top 5 upside. Burning two roster spots on backup QBs and TEs is bad process because it takes away an RB dart throw. I'm fine with backing up a QB or a TE, but not both unless it really makes sense (as an example - backing up George Kittle with OJ Howard last year). Having two TEs that are both better than WR3s is useful. Having a second TE that is a solid TE1, but no better than a WR4 is not useful. Do you really think Waller is that guy? Is there a better shot Waller becomes a useful asset/potential trade chip than a dart throw RB in the last couple rounds?

I am fine with Lamar or Goff. And speaking of people named Lamar, what about taking a shot on D'Onte Foreman? He will have a role out of the gate and he's one Lamar Miller injury away from becoming a primary back in a good offense and he can also just take that job because he's better. Isabella and Waller can be had with our last two picks. A defense can be had with one of those picks as well. We can probably go Foreman now, Tucker or Zuerlein next round because it won't hurt us in our plan, then Lamar/Goff, Isabella, WR/RB dart (or Waller), Defense.

RC: I like the D'Onta Foreman concept among later RB gambles. Miller could be outright cut for $$$ savings purposes...especially if the Texans add a new GM (they may not until next year). I absolutely believe that Darren Waller can be a top 5 TE...if Jared Cook mattered, Waller can beat that. I believe Waller will trading as a back-end TE1 #10-15 TE by August 20th. If I'm wrong, I ditch Waller for whatever ahead. Likely 1/3rd of all the players you take in the draft will be churned by Week 4-5. Sometimes because a player flopped, sometimes a better option presents itself and we cant have eternal patience for backup RBs (like a Rashaad Penny) to make their move.

I think, in 4pts per pass TD leagues, Lamar Jackson can be a top 5 fantasy QB on his gaudy rushing totals. I like taking a 2nd QB as a hedge against banking everything on a rookie without taking an easy precaution. I get taking a flyer RB from here on in, but any RB from here on in is a likely just praying or an injury for them to matter...well, I want to have insurance against a Kyler injury or if everything goes down the drain with Kingsbury-Kyler. I get the value of the RB dart throw, I get the grab of a QB as protection against the dart throw going against our main guy. I may never use LJax. I may never use D'Onta, and cut him by Week 3-4.

I would have taken 2 QBs by now, so I'm good for this purpose of taking non-QBs just to explore non- QBs we're looking at.

Foreman, Isabella, Tucker, NE DST, Waller and who...and what order to take to get them all?

Names I'm also looking at...Parris Campbell. Who else you like?

Katz: I think the move is Foreman-Tucker-NE-Isabella-Waller. I'm confident we will get all five. I like Parris Campbell, but there's still a lot of uncertainty on that depth chart. He has to compete with Devin Funchess and Chester Rogers. I don't see much value in Campbell in redraft because it's not going to happen from week 1 and when a WR emerges, it's not like when an RB takes hold of a starting role. The RB instantly becomes extremely useful. The WR might be worth a flex play. As we saw with Courtland Sutton last year, it's not always wheels up when a WR gets a shot. Not like when an RB does. I know that odds are 90% of the RBs drafted after round 9 are dropped by week 3 anyway, but if the 10% hits, it is more valuable than anything else out there. If Darren Waller hits, it's not worth nearly as much and the odds are just as low. And your talk about Kyler "insurance" really doesn't matter. I agree we should have insurance for Kyler, but unless we hit on Kyler (or have Mahomes or hit on Baker), what's the difference? We might as well stream. I like Lamar and taking a backup QB in general because Kyler is a rookie and if we end up being way wrong, we will know right away and have a fix in place. But if we're taking a safety valve backup QB and we see after the first couple weeks that the air raid is legit, we no longer need a backup QB. I digress. Let's go Foreman.

RC: I'm good with that.

Parris Campbell...a little different than Sutton's situation, or most other rookies -- in that he's got the Tyreek Hill hope, in that he'll be taking jet sweeps, working the bubble screen game, etc. He's built for fantasy and doesn't need a high-end QB to turn him on, but he has one. Sutton and Hamilton suffered via Keenum (and fears of Flacco this year). Chester Rogers will be cut due to salary cap logic, and I love my odds on a Campbell v. Funchess for where Luck is going to be looking. It might take weeks, like any gamble backup, but Campbell could happen right out of the gates and because he's one of the fastest players in the league his FF hopes are higher in my book.

I'd covet a 2nd TE hopeful (like Waller, not just 'in general') more than a 2nd QB hopeful in our situation because I have almost no fear of a Murray stumble and if he does, I die with it and will swipe a QB from somewhere in season. TE, not as easy...and there's inherently more risk Howard is an FF letdown than Murray, for me, so I want the 2nd TE in case I need them fast...and if I'm right on Waller, he'll provide options. Use as a TE...use as a flex...trade hot if he starts hot. I'm in the camp of Waller might be about to shock everyone and I see him as a TE1 right now...I'm not just hoping/wishing/if everything goes right -- I'm now near convinced Waller is for-sure starting and is a weapon they want to use, not just exists as a random option who scores a TD once in a while with their 2-3-4 catches for 20-30-40 yards per game (a la Vance McDonald or Trey Burton types).

Katz: Alright let's survey the field.

10.06 D'Onta Foreman

10.07 Jerick McKinnon

10.08 Ronald Jones

10.09 Jared Goff

10.10 Michael Gallup

10.11 Vance McDonald

10.12 Robert Foster

11.01 Dion Lewis

11.02 Royce Freeman

11.03 David Njoku

11.04 Parris Campbell

11.05 Rams

11.06 Nyheim Hines

Well. Did not see Parris Campbell going. We need two more receivers in a format where you have to start three. We've got our eye on Andy Isabella. If you are dead set on Waller, then we can pencil him in for the last round. We'll take the defense second to last round. That means out of our next three picks, one must be Justin Tucker, the other Andy Isabella, and the third a receiver we haven't decided on yet.

RC: I think Isabella is such a steal and so important to hook with Kyler...I make this pick early just to lock it in. You know I like Tucker a touch early just to lock him in (when what I then want I can get late, like Waller.).

I say Isabella now, and then do we see a great option after that or just go Tucker and then take the best available after that?

Katz: I'm fine with Isabella.

11.07 Andy Isabella

11.08 Delanie Walker

11.09 Tyrell Williams

11.10 Damien Harris

11.11 Austin Ekeler

11.12 Donte Moncrief

12.01 Austin Hooper

12.02 Jaguars

12.03 Chris Herndon

12.04 Jack Doyle

12.05 Adam Humphries

Two more picks left other than kicker and defense. We need a fifth WR. We want Tucker, the Patriots defense, and Darren Waller. We've agreed on Waller last round and Patriots second to last round. Do we take the RB now or Tucker? There are way too many RBs available that I think could potentially be useful. Ito Smith, Matt Breida, Carlos Hyde, Peyton Barber, and Adrian Peterson, to name a few.

RC: I'm starting to think Peyton Barber is one of the most underappreciated RBs in the league. His ADP sinking, in part, because the Ronald Jones people are hearing the 'everyone looks great in the summer' dog whistle. The scouting community that got Jones all wrong will not rest until he flops again, and then they'll go silent and hope we forget. Barber is not a 'wow' guy, but he's going to be a main carry guy right away -- you can sell that hot Weeks 1-2 to the RB-panic crowd (a.k.a. 90% of fantasy players) when their current RBs don't all rush for 100+ yards and a TD every week right away.

I could get into Carlos Hyde as a shot that he unseats Damien Williams in an offense you want the RB on.

Which RB do you like among the available, and what WRs are there that you see worth considering?

Katz: Hyde is the only guy I see with a clear RB1 ceiling, but it requires an injury and for him to be given at least a 60% opportunity share. Barber could be an RB2 out of the gate, but he doesn't have a very high ceiling. I would probably lean Barber. At WR, I don't see anyone with a super high ceiling. I want to get into Albert Wilson, but the Dolphins offense is going to be a disaster. I could consider Trey Quinn. He costs nothing and his upside is PPR WR3. It's not super high, but it's useful. He fits what Haskins does quite well. If we go RB here, can we really go into a three WR format with only four WRs on the roster?

RC: We can go in with 4 WRs. Between grabbing something ahead of people on waivers Weeks 1-2-3 or using something that paid off (backup RB or Waller or whatever), we can find a #5 WR, if needed. It's easier to find RBs by a wide margin, so I'd rather take a WR, but if Barber is going to work/turn into a WR3 we can trade for...I'm comfortable with that.

To your point on Hyde...this late in the draft, this early in the process -- I'd probably take Hyde hoping for the 'pop'/the big payoff...or cut fast and get Wilson or whatever off waivers.

WR names to consider outside the box...Marquise Goodwin with Jimmy G. back? D.J. Chark on a flyer he becomes a #1 WR with the new Jags passing game? Wilson as the MIA #1? Enunwa as the NYJ #1? Zay Jones as the BUF #1?

Katz: I have reasons to like every name you mentioned. I vote for Albert Wilson, but it's by the slimmest of margins. I'm fine with anyone.

RC: Albert Wilson makes as much sense as anyone...considering how bad that Miami WR rotation is. Enunwa would be my other choice. Chark is my real gamble that I come up with a gem out of nowhere this year.

Katz: All three are similar in terms of floor and upside. For all three, the most likely scenario is we drop them by week 3 and each of their ceilings is low end WR2, at best. We're going Wilson.

12.06 Albert Wilson

12.07 John Brown

12.08 Hollywood Brown

12.09 Matt Breida

12.10 Ito Smith

12.11 Carlos Hyde 12.12 Dak Prescott

13.01 Duke Johnson

13.02 Adrian Peterson

13.03 Peyton Barber

13.04 Jalen Richard

13.05 Devin Singletary

13.06 Jameis Winston

Are we definitely taking Darren Waller? That's the decision that has to be made now because if we are, then we wait and do that last round and go Tucker now and defense next. If not, then we need to consider the alternative now.

RC: I want Waller, so I say Tucker-DST-Waller...unless there is a player case to be made otherwise.

Katz: I am in agreement.

13.07 Justin Tucker

13.08 Gus Edwards

13.09 Kalen Ballage

13.10 Kenneth Dixon

13.11 DeVante Parker

13.12 Alexander Mattison

14.01 Chargers

14.02 Philip Rivers

14.03 Ravens

14.04 Dolphins

14.05 Vikings

Texans, Saints, Patriots, Bills, Cowboys on the board. You pick.

RC: I think the Patriots are the way to go because their opening schedule is so strong, and consider a last second (Sunday am Week 1) DST for Week 1 (NE v. PIT) while holding the Pats. Belichick with months to prepare for Week 1 may be fine v. the new Steelers.

Katz: Patriots it is.

14.06 Patriots

14.07 Texans

14.08 TJ Hockenson

14.09 Greg Olsen

14.10 Browns

14.11 Cowboys

14.12 Saints

15.01 Greg Zuerlein

15.02 Harrison Butker

15.03 Stephen Gostkowski

15.04 Ka'imi Fairbairn

15.05 Wil Lutz

15.06 Mason Crosby

No reason to delay the conclusion of this draft anymore. Our plan all along was to draft Darren Waller and that is exactly what we will do.

15.07 Darren Waller

15.08 Adam Vinatieri

15.09 Greg Joseph

15.10 Matt Prater

15.11 Giorgio Tavecchio

15.12 Jake Elliott

Final Roster

QB: Kyler Murray

RB: Le'Veon Bell, Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman, D'Onta Foreman, Jaylen Samuels

WR: Odell Beckham, Tyler Lockett, Curtis Samuel, Albert Wilson, Andy Isabella

TE: OJ Howard, Darren Waller

DEF: Patriots

K: Justin Tucker

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RC: YES!!! Ranked the worst of the 12!!!