(Jason Katz and I) Finally Finished Our First Mock Redraft of the Year – 18K+ Words of Discussion, Strategy, Debate, Philosophical Clashes
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Well, we (Jason Katz and I) finally finished our first Mock Redraft of the year – 18K+ words of discussion, strategy, debate, philosophical clashes. In prior years, we’ve been fairly on the same page. This year, not so much…which is good because it’s a healthy discussion of the different ways you can go with a draft strategy. Two very different approaches taken, you can decide which way you like overall or just round- by-round. I’m planning my next Mock Draft(umentary) soon – my solo ride, so I can show my game plan in action. In this joint mock redraft just completed, we had to debate and compromise on what we were doing. We did our best to explain our different views and reasonings, but my upcoming solo ride will give an example of where I’m at with full control over the decisions – my game plan, my concerns, my improvs, etc. You will see that soon (likely picking from the #10-11-12 spot, as most FFM subscribers are…I’ll do a picking #1-2-3/early one as well, planned for). For now, here’s about 20%+ of a full American novel of reading material with two people prepping for and executing a 16-round mock redraft from the #7 spot (which we hated, and picked for that reason) in a 12-team mock vs. FantasyPros expert/consensus rankings from all their various sources blended together. Obviously, ADPs and player situations will change week-to-week ahead…this is as of late June/early July. Using the parameters... Basic PPR scoring QB (4pts per pass TD) 2 RB, 3 WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K, 6 Bench *Also note…we were email chatting back and forth conducting this draft. I’m sure there are some typos, etc., but I’m not going to fine tooth comb 18K+ words of this chat. We did the best we could keeping it proper, so forgive any typos/grammar. RC: Before we even begin the draft, let's discuss our strategy(s) going in. My main question to you is the question that, to me, starts every draft planning session -- What are we doing at quarterback(s)? With picks 7-18-31-42 out of the chute...do we want to pursue a plan that sets Patrick Mahomes as a game plan (and then changes our expected valuation of Kelce-Tyreek) or bypass Mahomes and go into Mayfield-Murray with the fears that they are harder to predict where they will go in the draft, so we will be taking them earlier than expected. We're targeting a Mahomes-Murray plan or Mayfield-Murray plan, and would plan accordingly. I'd accept, in 4pts per pass TD, a Murray-Goff plan but I'd rather go with Mahomes or Mayfield with Murray and use Murray-Goff as my fail safe. Either way, we don't leave this draft without Kyler, which means we plan to take way ahead of everyone else...but we want an established passer in case the Murray thing goes sideways, and the other top QBs are undervalued anyway. I don't plan anything else, in 2019 preseason, without first setting up how I'm getting two of those top QBs with Murray (in 4pts per pass TD) being one of them. Do you agree or disagree that it's discussion #1 in setting up the 2019 plan? Katz: I have zero interest in taking Mahomes at his current ADP. We likely would have to take him round 2 to secure him and the only way he can justify that position is if he provides as much of a weekly edge over the rest of the league as he did last season. No QB in NFL history has thrown for over 40 touchdowns in consecutive seasons and very few have done it more than once in their entire careers. I firmly believe Mahomes is an all-time great in the making and will have multiple 40 TD seasons in the future, but he is not throwing 50 again. Plus, given how highly we view Baker and Kyler (and to a lesser extent, Goff), plus the medley of viable QBs late in guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson, the opportunity cost of selecting a QB anywhere in the first few rounds is just too great. I don't think we can accurately predict any QB to be as much of a difference maker as Mahomes was last year. I certainly won't gamble away an elite WR or RB trying to do so. But we think Baker and Kyler can be that guy and both of them cost a lot less than Mahomes. Add in the fact that Mahomes' odds of getting close to last year's performance are even lower with a Tyreek extended absence and I want no part of Mahomes at his cost. There are so many good fantasy QBs. We can reach a round or two for Kyler and then grab Goff, Lamar, or someone like Ben, Trubisky, or Dak in the double-digit rounds as an insurance policy. No reason to spend a top 42 pick on a QB. Position scarcity plus our evaluation of Kyler makes it a negative value proposition. RC: I want to first hit on the Mahomes point you made because I think it is incredibly important because you're incredibly wrong...and everyone is, and it's a mindset problem I'm trying to break in all of us. I am going to beat on you to make an example for the rest of the audience. I do not want to hear a Mahomes knock of anything about what TD levels QBs have not thrown for (at the high levels) from the past as the reason to shy away from Mahomes. This is not 1977. Or 1987. Or even 2017. The NFL has changed, radically. AND these new age quarterbacks are like nothing the world has ever seen before, as passers. Already better than any historical QBs you can think of...Montana, Marino, Elway, Favre, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers. It's not because Mahomes, Mayfield and guys to come are some special DNA...they just have the advantage of being great talents brought up in the era where they were throwing more passes in grade school than the contemporaries did their entire college careers (I'm sure Marino, Favre, etc., would be great in output like them had they been brought up in this era with new era coaches). If you want to be against Mahomes for ADP, what he does vs. cheaper Mayfield, etc., or schedule, or Andy Reid, Tyreek out too long...I can dig any of those arguments. But this 'he CAN'T DO THAT AGAIN argument is going to lead people to destruction, and it's bad thinking (even if he throws for JUST 40 TDs this season. There's just as much chance he throws for 55+ TDs this season as he does throw for 40-45. The stars didn't all lineup perfectly for Mahomes to have his one shining season he'll never repeat -- this was just the first performance, the opening act. Imagine when he gets really comfortable in the NFL what will happen? When it comes to the numbers these new QBs are putting up...history is thrown out. Don't use history in this situation...it's comparing apples and hand-grenades. It's like the argument -- who would win a world war pitting the WWII United States 'The Greatest Generation' and the skills/life they had vs. 2019 'The Millennials' United States? The Greatest Generation would be toast within a week or so. It's not because they weren't 'The Greatest'...it's that the landscape, the playing field, the training, the weapons, the technology has all changed. With all that being said...I am with you more than not on moving away from Mahomes because of the fact that it is a 4pts per pass TD and not 6pts (and +bonuses) and the bargain costs of Mayfield/Murray. But before we think that is totally genius -- if you bypass Mahomes, and set your mind on Mayfield- Murray, just note...you have to overspend on their ADPs to get it done because if you get cute, as we are all want to do, and try to wait 'one more round', and then miss them because s secret Baker or Kyler lover emerges...you've blown it, you've ruined the whole plan...for what? So you could quench some ridiculous thirst for these damn running backs. Every freaking time people sit down and plan out a draft they start worrying about the running backs first, second, and third...and yet, by Week 3-4 half of the top guys are hurt, benched, under-performing...and guys are popping up off waivers as RB1s every other week. I'd be cautious getting cavalier about "I can get my QBs later" just so you can chase the running back delusion again. No waiver wire QB is going to throw for 40+ TDs thrown in as an emergency starter because the main QB got hurt for some NFL team, but 20+ backup RBs could lead the league in rushing/fantasy if they had to take over Week 1 for some established RB getting hurt. Mahomes's value here, the logic of entertaining him as a 2nd-round guy or if he falls to the 3rd...you know he's going to be a sensational producer...Mayfield and Murray we think strongly, but we've not seen it.