Regional Water Availability Report
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Regional water availability report Weekly edition 20 July 2020 1 Contents 1. Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 3 2. System risks .......................................................................................................................................... 3 3. Climatic Conditions ............................................................................................................................. 4 4. Southern valley based operational activities ................................................................................... 6 4.1 Murray valley ............................................................................................................................................... 6 4.2 Lower Darling valley ................................................................................................................................... 8 4.3 Murrumbidgee valley ................................................................................................................................. 9 5. Central valley based operational activities .................................................................................... 12 5.1 Lachlan valley ........................................................................................................................................... 12 5.2 Macquarie valley ..................................................................................................................................... 15 6. Northern valley based operational activities ................................................................................. 17 6.1 Namoi valley ............................................................................................................................................. 17 6.2 Gwydir valley ............................................................................................................................................ 19 6.3 Border rivers ............................................................................................................................................... 20 6.4 Barwon-Darling River system ................................................................................................................... 20 7. Coastal valley based operational activities ................................................................................... 26 7.1 Bega river .................................................................................................................................................. 26 7.2 Hunter valley ............................................................................................................................................. 27 7.3 Toonumbar Dam ...................................................................................................................................... 28 8. Rural Dam Levels ............................................................................................................................... 29 Water availability weekly report 2 1. Overview WaterNSW manages and operates 42 dams and storages to deliver water for environmental, domestic, town water, stock, industrial and irrigation purposes across the state. WaterNSW storages provide supplies to all the major river systems in Western NSW, Greater Sydney, the Southern Highlands, Shoalhaven Bay as well as the Hunter, Bega, and Iron Pot valleys in coastal NSW. The total active storage percentage of rural water supplies on 20 July 2020 was 37.1 percent of the total active storage capacity. This was an increase of 0.8 percent since last week. The total storage level of urban water supplies on 20 July 2020 was 80.2 percent of the total storage capacity. A decrease of 0.2 percent since last week. 2. System risks The relatively small inflows to most Northern dams mean that drought measures and works are being reviewed, but most will likely remain in place, despite the larger flows downstream. This is particularly the case for Chaffey, Split Rock and Wyangala Dams, where the risks to critical needs remains high. Risks are also increasing in the Hunter Valley as inflows to Glenbawn and Glennies Creek Dams continue to track well below previous drought records. Water availability weekly report 3 3. Climatic Conditions Figure 1 - Weekly rainfall totals for New South Wales This week’s weather forecast A strong high-pressure system lies over the Bight, extending a ridge across New South Wales. This high will be the dominant feature as it gradually moves east over the coming days, reaching the Tasman Sea by Friday. Late on Friday, a trough is forecast to approach the far west of the state, and then continue to move east across inland districts during Saturday, accompanied by some unsettled conditions. For the first part of the week, NSW is forecast to remain dry apart from the far north coastal region which is expected to receive negligible rainfall. As the week progresses, most regions of NSW should receive 1 – 50 mm of rainfall with the higher falls of 25 – 50 mm being predicted across the eastern to coastal regions of the state. Figure 2a – First 4-day Forecast (21 – 24 July 2020) Figure 2b – Following 4-day forecast (25 - 28 July 2020) Water availability weekly report 4 Climate outlook overview Issued 16 July • A wetter fortnight likely for New South Wales and a wetter 3 months likely for most of NSW. Figure 3 – 3-month rainfall outlook Water availability weekly report 5 4. 4Southern valley based operational activities 4.1 Murray Valley Storage and release status • Hume Dam is currently at 46 percent of active capacity and at minimum releases of 600 ML/d. • Release downstream of Yarrawonga Weir is at approximately 8,200 ML/d and is likely to decrease to approximately 6,000 ML/d over the coming week. • Tributary inflows downstream of Hume have continued to recede over recent days. With no significant rainfall forecast for the coming week, tributary inflow will continue to recede and as a result unregulated flows will cease to be available in the River Murray from Hume to Barmah and in the Edward-Wakool River system from the Edward river offtake to Stevens Weir. NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE-Water) extended the period of unregulated flow for certain reaches of the River Murray System that started on the 27 June 2020 to 27 July 2020. • The Edward River offtake flow is currently at approximately 1,562 ML/d, which is in the regulated channel capacity. The offtake flow would be gradually reduced in line with Edward-Wakool system demands and River Murray water levels. • The Gulpa Creek offtake flow is at about 330 ML/d and likely to decrease to approximately 250 ML/d over the coming week. • Stevens Weir level is at approximately 4.44 m and is likely to fluctuate while the supplementary continues in the upstream sections and then start to gradually lower to about 3.9 m. Water level upstream of Wakool Canal offtake is at approximately 0.9 m. • Flow downstream of Stevens Weir is at approximately 550 ML/d and is forecast to vary between 500 and 600 ML/d. The flow would increase to approximately 2,000 ML/d when the supplementary access in the upstream sections cease later in the week. • Flows in the Colligen Creek (250 ML/d), Yallakool Creek (236 ML/d) and Wakool offtake (30 ML/d) are likely to marginally vary to manage the supplementary access demands in the system. The offtake flows into Wakool River may gradually reduce, eventually ceasing to flow when Stevens Weir is gradually lowered. • Flow in Niemur River at Mallan School is currently at approximately 200 ML/d and the flow is likely to remain relatively steady over the course of the week. • Merran Creek flows upstream of its confluence with Wakool is at approximately 106 ML/d and the flow is likely to fluctuate before it increases to about 140ML/d over the next week. • Flow in Wakool River at Stoney Crossing is currently at approximately 490 ML/d and is likely to increase gradually over the coming weeks. Water availability weekly report 6 • Flow at Balranald is currently at approximately 1,800 ML/d and will gradually decrease over the coming week to meet the end of system target for the July of 829ML/d. The target for August is 1,087 ML/d • Lake Victoria is currently holding approximately 630 GL or 92 percent of active capacity. The lake is effectively full under the Lake Victoria operating strategy that maintains airspace in the lake while there are unregulated flow conditions. The flow to South Australia is approximately 12,600 ML/d. Environmental water operations • eWater delivery has now ceased into Wakool-Yallakool system and into Colligen-Niemur system. Water availability • The Water Allocation Statement by DPIE (dated 15th July 2020) confirmed that in the NSW Murray Valley Local Water Utility (LWU) and Domestic and Stock (D&S) allocation are at 100 percent. High Security (HS) allocation is at 97 percent. regulated River (RR) (conveyance) category allocation is at 51 percent. General Security (GS) allocation is at two percent with carryover equivalent to 21 percent of total GS share components. The allocations for all temporary critical Conveyance licences are also at 100 percent. Drought operation measures • The NSW Murray regulated river water source remains at Stage two, meaning drought operational planning has commenced in preparation for extreme dry conditions that may continue through 2020-21. Water