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Forecast: Holiday Sales to Increase 3.6 Percent by Andrew Asch Retail Editor

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Forecast: Holiday Sales to Increase 3.6 Percent by Andrew Asch Retail Editor NEWSPAPER 2ND CLASS $2.99 VOLUME 72, NUMBER 43 OCTOBER 7–13, 2016 THE VOICE OF THE INDUSTRY FOR 71 YEARS Forecast: Holiday Sales to Increase 3.6 Percent By Andrew Asch Retail Editor The first forecasts for the upcoming 2016 holiday sea- son have been released, and they predict that retailers will enjoy solid sales during the crucial season, which can com- prise more than 20 percent of a retailer’s annual business, according to the National Retail Federation, the Washing- ton, D.C., retail trade organization. Retail sales during November and December—exclud- ing auto, gas and restaurant sales—will increase 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion, according to the NRF, which released its forecast on Oct. 4. Deloitte—the auditing, consulting and risk-management company—forecast that holiday retail sales will increase 3.6 percent to 4 percent, according to a statement released Sept. 21. Retail sales should exceed $1 trillion during the season, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Consumers have ramped up their spending this year on the back of a strong labor market. We also expect slightly higher growth in disposable personal income during the up- ➥ Holiday Forecast page 2 MANUFACTURING Troubled California Brands Figuring Out How to Survive in the New Apparel World By Deborah Belgum Senior Editor A rash of recent layoffs at big prestigious Los Angeles labels noted for their superb fabric, cutting-edge styles and trendsetting ways is a sign that traditional brands are facing tough competition from e-commerce sites and fast-fashion retailers and faced with the added challenge of a millennial mindset that shuns department-store merchandise in favor of fashion blogger recommendations. Particularly hard hit is the premium-denim category, where private-equity firms and investment groups in recent years bought out the founders of such well-regarded labels as True Religion, J Brand, 7 For All Mankind, Joe’s Jeans and Hudson Jeans. True Religion, acquired in 2013 by TowerBrook Capi- tal Partners for $824 million, is in high risk of going bank- rupt, according to a recent Fitch Ratings report. The com- ➥ California Brands page 4 INSIDE: Where fashion gets down to business SM LOS ANGELES FASHION WEEK 8 8 New Beginning New CEO at VF ... p. 2 This season, the lineup at Los Angeles Fashion Week New Lines ... p. 3 includes more than 100 collections showing at six events Lingerie ... p. 3 spread across a four-week span. For a look at the first Three Dots launches plus ... p. 8 week’s collections, see pages 6–7. Fashion Resources ... p. 9 Vicken Derderian JOHN ECKMIER www.apparelnews.net 01,2,4.cover.indd 1 10/6/16 6:42 PM NEWS VF Corp. Names a New CEO to FBI Sets Lineup for All Aboard Runway Take Over for Eric Wiseman Fund-raiser and MAFI Award Fashion Business Inc. will return to to announce a new MAFI winner and con- VF Corp.—the 118-year- More recently, Rendle Union Station in downtown Los Angeles tinue our recognition of dynamic and in- old company whose brands was vice president, VF on Oct. 18 for the sixth annual All Aboard novative brands while supporting Fashion include Vans, Wrangler, Lee Corp., and group president Runway Show and presentation of the Moss Business Inc.’s important work,” said Martin and, until recently, 7 For All for Outdoor & Action Sports Adams Fashion Innovator Award. Hughes, Moss Adams partner and national Mankind—has appointed Americas. The runway show will feature looks from apparel practice leader. Steve Rendle as its new chief Rendle received a bach- Rails, Godz and Goddezzes, Alexis Mon- Other sponsors include Capital Business executive, effective Jan. 1. elor’s of science degree in santo, Adam Mar, Punchline Apparel, Credit, Rosenthal & Rosenthal, Green- Rendle, who has been with kinesiology from the Uni- Angelino, Stellan & Wylde and Komo-Va. span Consult, Merchant Factors, HSBC, VF Corp. for 16 years and versity of Washington. He David Ono, coanchor for ABC7 Eyewit- Fineman West & Co., Wells Fargo Capi- currently serves as its presi- serves on the board of direc- ness News, will host the event alongside tal Finance, Rock Revival, UBS Financial dent and chief operating of- tors of Advanced Function- Erica Ash, star of “Survivor’s Remorse” Services, Michael Baum and Michelle Lee. ficer, will be replacing Eric al Fabrics of America Inc., and “Real Husbands of Hollywood.” Singer The event is scheduled to begin with red- Wiseman, who is stepping Steve Rendle which is working to enable David Longoria will perform his hot song carpet arrivals and a networking reception at down after nine years as chief a manufacturing-based ap- “We Are One.” 6 p.m., with the show beginning at 7:30 p.m. executive but will continue to serve as ex- proach to transform traditional fibers, yarns The evening will also feature the an- Tickets for the event will benefit FBI, the ecutive chairman of VF’s board of directors. and fabrics into highly sophisticated, inte- nouncement of this year’s winner of the nonprofit organization. Now celebrating its Wiseman will be working with Rendle to grated and networked devices and systems. Moss Adams Fashion Innovator Award 17th year, FBI helps emerging designers make sure the transition is smooth. VF Corp.’s other major brands include (MAFI) and the FBI Emerging Designer of and provides retraining for industry profes- Rendle, who will keep his title as presi- Timberland and Nautica. The Greensboro, the Year award. sionals. dent, has been overseeing all of VF’s busi- N.C., company had revenues in 2015 of “As we celebrate our sixth year as All Tickets can be purchased at www.fashion- ness coalitions worldwide, which include $12.4 billion.—Deborah Belgum Aboard’s Presenting Sponsor, we are thrilled bizinc.org.—Alison A. Nieder outdoor and action sports, jeanswear, image- wear, and sportswear. In his new job, Rendle will be respon- sible for VF’s strategic direction, its near- RETAIL SALES and long-term growth plans and day-to-day global operations. “We’ve been working since 2008 to identify and prepare the right person to succeed me when the time comes. Mixed Results for September Retail Sales That time is now,” Wiseman said. Rendle has more than 30 years of expe- Zumiez Inc. was one of the lucky retailers store sales, according to market-research firm division reported flat same-store sales, said rience in the outdoor and action-sports in- who beat pessimistic forecasts predicting that Retail Metrics. But instead the Seattle-area Amie Preston of L Brands. dustry with 16 of those working at VF Corp. the retailer would see a decline in its same- mall retailer catering to young adults posted a The Buckle Inc.’s stock declined 10 per- From 2004 to 2011, he served as president store sales results. 6.3 percent increase in its same-store results. cent to $21.24 per share on news of its poor of The North Face brand after having begun Analysts had predicted that Zumiez would Based on its sales increase, Zumiez an- performance during September, according his career with that label in 1999. see a 0.4 percent decline in its comparable- nounced Oct. 5 that it would raise its guid- to Yahoo Finance. The Nebraska-headquar- ance for its third- tered retailer’s same- quarter sales results. store sales declined Net sales for the September Retail Sales 15.5 percent. The last quarter will come in $Sales % Change Same-store time the mall-based at $216 million to (in millions) from yr. ago sales % change purveyor of jeans $217 million. Previ- The Buckle $82.90 -14.8% -15.5% and premium cloth- Gap Inc. $1,430.00 -2.0% -3.0% ous guidance for net L Brands Inc. $971.40 +6.0% +3.0% ing recorded positive sales had ranged from Zumiez Inc. $75.00 +11.5% +6.3% same-store sales was $209 million to $213 Information from company reports in May 2015, when it million. reported a 2.4 percent There was an increase in sales. uptick for L Brands Inc. stock after it an- Gap Inc. reported a 3 percent decline in nounced its September sales results. The same-store sales in September. Its Gap Glob- Columbus, Ohio–headquartered L Brands al division posted a 10 percent drop in comps, reported a same-store-sales increase of 3 per- its Banana Republic Global division posted cent. The company’s Bath & Body Works a 9 percent decline and its Old Navy Global division posted a 9 percent increase in comp reported a 4 percent increase in same-store sales for the month, but its Victoria’s Secret sales.—Andrew Asch Holiday Forecast Continued from page 1 coming holiday season compared with last higher unemployment. We’ve been adding year,” he said. jobs, we aren’t at a breakout speed, but I During a conference call, Jack Kleinhenz, don’t see where people are going to fall off the NRF’s chief economist, also noted that of the side of the world and stop spending,” economic indicators support predictions that he said. sales will increase during the holiday despite Last year, the NRF predicted that holi- gloom about the economy. “Certainly there day retail sales would increase 3.7 percent. will be some speed bumps that come along,” By the time the season’s last receipts were he said. counted, the NRF announced that 2015 holi- But with unemployment low—it is at 4.9 day sales had only increased 3 percent. Mat- percent, according to the Bureau of Labor thew Shay, the NRF’s president and chief Statistics—and consumer confidence in- executive officer, blamed the missed forecast creasing—it is at the highest level since the on warm weather during the holiday season, recession, according to a Sept.
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