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November 26 – November 30, 2012

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November 26 – November 30, 2012 Market Round Up: November 26 – November 30, 2012 International News: Expecting good news from China, where confidence in the economy is the highest it has been in more than a year. Unfortunately, domestic investors do not seem to agree, as the Composite Shanghai index lost 4.3 per cent last month. Over the last three years, it has fallen 43 per cent. Company News: RIM was back in the news last week. Shares have rallied 90 per cent in the last two months, and are now at $12, a result of the BB10 launch set for January. It seams carriers are hoping to impact the Android/Apple duopoly, and putting some weight behind RIM’s offering. Analysts are even beginning to speak on “non-terrible” results in Q1 of 2013 - Goldman even updated the company to a “buy” rating. Whether this rally is based on something tangible or merely hope, has yet to be determined. Tiffany and Co (TIF) fell following the release of lower-than-expected quarterly sales, while Yum Brands (YUM) reported weak Chinese sales numbers, sending shares lower. Upcoming: We continue to look towards retailers to indicated economic health. Note that, pessimistically, most US department stores revealed falling sales in November despite a post thanksgiving boost. Technical analysts are looking for a rally in December, based on the September sell off. As per usual, watch for movement in the fiscal cliff talks. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada will take up the same position in the Bank of England. His job will include anchoring inflation, supervising the financial institutions (company regulators will come under the BoE mandate next year), and stabilizing the British economy. Canadian markets did not react particularly negative on the news, falling approximately 0.2 per cent, which was in line with other global markets. With further analysis, we find that “before taking dividends into account, the S&P/TSX composite index fell 8.7 per cent during Mr. Carney’s term, underperforming the S&P 500 by more than nine percentage points… While the central bank sets interest rates and can be held responsible for some degree of Canadian economic performance, the stock market is largely beyond its domain.”1 Perhaps Carney is leaving at just the right time. Growth numbers released last Friday showed that the Canadian economy grew just 0.6 per cent in Q3. The expectation was for a 1 per cent growth increase. Other analysts have been arguing the Canadian dollar is overvalued, especially given weak economic data, and that a “turn” may be upcoming.2 In terms of the Bank of Canada, top candidates for the governor position are: Glenn Stevens, Tiff Macklem, Jean Boivin, and Agathe Cote. Other News: “For the first time on record, the delinquency rate on student loans has jumped above the rate for credit cards, car loans, or any other kind of consumer loan. The tragedy? Many of those loans will default, with stunningly harsh consequences.”3 1 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/markets-shrugged-why-investors-are-unfazed-by-carneys-big- move/article5703141/ 2 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/as-canada-sputters-dollar-and-stocks-become- vulnerable/article5847759/ 3 http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-28/the-needless-tragedy-of-student-loan-defaults#r=most%20popular This information is not investment advice and should be used only in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Investment Advisor. This will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. RBC Dominion S®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. RBC Wealth Management is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. ©Copyright 2012. All rights reserved..
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