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BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 12 MAY 2016

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BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 12 MAY 2016 BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 12 MAY 2016 Vol RESEARCH INDICES Last Chg (%) YTD (%) (US$ m) RALSEconomy IJ: Improvement in Apr-16 SSSG ASEAN Another trade surplus in October (Jakarta Post) Indonesia (IDX) 4,799.96 0.77 4.51 286.97 Malaysia (KLCI) 1,644.58 0.53 (2.87) 231.49 - Apr-16 net sales (+4.7% YoY) Industry/Corporate Philippines (PCOMP) 7,396.52 3.09 6.39 213.22 -Indonesia Positive Pondasi SSSG inRaya all isregions Offering 303.mn Shares at IDR1,280-IDR1,920/Share Singapore (STI) 2,732.87 (0.30) (5.29) 589.48 -(Company, Reiterate BCA Hold Sekuritas) recommendation Thailand (SET) 1,382.41 (0.56) 7.33 1,211.59 Adhi Karya (ADHI.JK) has Secured Total Contract of IDR10.6 tn as of October 2015 REGIONAL & USA (Company) China (SHCOMP) 2,837.04 0.16 (20.60) 22,484.98 Ciputra Property (CTRP.JK) Relies on Recurring Income to Meet Revenues Target Hongkong (Hang Seng) 20,055.29 (0.93) (8.35) 2,277.31 (IFT) Astra International's (ASII.JK) Car Sales to be Flat Next Year (IFT) India (SENSEX) 25,597.02 (0.68) (1.40) 64.40 Japan (Nikkei) 16,579.01 0.08 (12.90) 11,863.34 Korea (KOSPI) 1,980.10 (0.12) 0.96 3,588.22 Taiwan (TWSE) 8,135.56 (0.25) (1.74) 2,184.57 USA (Dow Jones) 17,711.12 (1.21) 0.61 6,050.24 Source: Bloomberg CURRENCIES & RATES Last -1 Week -1 Month EoP 2015 IDR/USD 13,309 13,261 13,134 13,788 IDR/USD (1-month NDF) 13,330 13,440 13,135 13,918 TODAY'S HEADLINES BI Rate 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.50 JIBOR (ON / 1 yr) 4.95 / 7.80 5.00 / 7.81 4.89 / 7.87 8.26 / 9.07 CORPORATE/INDUSTRY FASBI ON / SBI 9 mth 4.75 / 6.60 4.75 / 6.60 4.75 / 6.60 5.50 / 7.10 Government to stop tendering process of Jawa 5 power plant project. Term Deposit ( 1 mth / 6 mth) 4.70 / 4.85 4.70 / 4.85 4.70 / 4.85 4.70 / 4.85 (Kontan) Base Lending Avg (IDR / USD) 13.77 / 5.23 13.76 / 4.88 14.11 / 5.23 14.52 / 5.05 Three SOE companies has signs to establish Gases power plant 50 MW. CDS - 5 year (bps) 185.17 192.97 207.16 229.56 (Bisnis Indonesia) Yield 10 Yr 7.81 7.76 7.54 8.76 Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ) issued IDR2tn of bond. (Kontan) Source: Bloomberg Train stations offer online shopping lockers. (Investor Daily) COMMODITIES Last Chg (%) MoM (%) YTD (%) Coal (USD/ton) 50.40 0.40 0.60 (0.98) Cocoa (USD/mt) 3,070.00 (1.00) 4.71 (4.66) Corn (USD/mt) 377.50 (0.92) 4.93 1.62 Brent Crude oil (USD/b) 47.60 4.57 10.83 18.29 Gold (USD/toz) 1,277.21 0.90 1.54 20.33 Nickel (USD/mt) 8,885.00 2.01 3.80 2.13 Palm oil (MYR/mt) 2,678.00 0.64 0.41 7.33 Pulp (USD/t) 795.85 - 0.78 (0.93) Sugar (USD/lb) 16.77 4.68 16.54 15.81 Tin (USD/mt) 17,225.00 0.38 2.99 17.58 RESEARCH Wheat (USD/bsh) 459.00 (0.49) 1.05 (5.07) Source: Bloomberg ETF & ADR Last Chg (%) MoM (%) YTD (%) EIDO US (USD) 22.86 1.02 (1.68) 8.86 Please see the overleaf for news details TLK US (USD) 56.05 0.77 8.79 25.98 Source: Bloomberg IDX - TOP MOVERS AND LAGGARDS Last Chg (%) INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD - GENERIC (IDR m) MOVERS Yield 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y % HMSP HM SAMPOERNA 98,500 1.55 70,243.2 10.0 ASII ASTRA INTERNATIONAL 6,650 1.92 212,912 9.5 BMRI BANK MANDIRI 9,625 1.85 147,370 9.0 UNVR UNILEVER INDONESIA 44,300 0.85 22,822 8.5 BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA 4,680 2.63 203,091 LAGGARDS 8.0 LPPF MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE 18,500 (2.63) 30,728 7.5 BBRI BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA 10,000 (0.50) 319,769 7.0 MNCN MEDIA NUSANTARA CITRA 2,110 (2.76) 20,609 6.5 EMTK ELANG MAHKOTA TEKNOLOGI 8,950 (1.65) 2 1-Sep 14-Sep 27-Sep 10-Oct 23-Oct 5-Nov 18-Nov EXCL XL AXIATA 3,310 (2.36) 21,312 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg BCA Vista BCA Indonesia Morning Digest 12 MAY 2016 TODAY'S NEWS INDUSTRY / CORPORATE Government to stop tendering process of Jawa 5 power plant project State electricity company (PLN) plans to discontinue tendering process of Jawa 5 power plant project. PLN said that electricity transmission in Banten, West Java has exceeded its capacity and thus is unable to accommodate 2x1000 MW capacity of the project. WIKA as the one of tender participation is likely to lose potential IDR7tn from the project. However, WIKA’s FY16 new contract target of IDR52tn is excluded Jawa 5 project. (Kontan). Three SOE companies has signs to establish Gases power plant 50 MW The three SOE companies, namely Angkasa Pursa II (AP II), Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ) and Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ) has signs MoU to establish JV Company to build Gases power plant with capacity 50 MW in outer Soekarno Hatta airport. This power plant is meant to meets electricity needs which will increase significantlyafter the operation of the Ultimate terminal 3 as well as to prevent blackouts. (Bisnis Indonesia). Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ) issued IDR2tn of bond WSKT has recently issued IDR2tn of bond with coupon rate between 9%-10%/year. According to management, most of the bond (70%) will primary to fund WSKT’s ongoing projects such as building construction and EPC. The remaining 30% will be invested in WSKT’s subsidiaries (Waskita Toll Road and Waskita Realty). (Kontan). Train stations offer online shopping lockers PT KAI Commuter Jabodetabek (KCJ) collaborated with Popbox Asia to intall Popbox e-lockers at train stations. This e-lockers is aimed at shoppers or consumers who do not have a specific mail address and or by those who have an address but are not often available at home or work. According to information available on Popbox Asia’s website, e-lockers are designed to be accessible 24-7 and shoppers can elect to collect their purchased items at selected stations including Kota in West Jakarta, Tanah Abang, Gondangdia, Cikini and Juanda in Central Jakarta and also Pasar Minggu in South Jakarta . Consumers can also receive items thought lockers installed at several shopping malls including Plaza Semanggi in South Jakarta. Popbox Asia have collaborated with PT Jalur Nugraha Ekakurir (JNE) to provide e-lockers around Jakarta to facilitate online-shopping. (Jakarta Post). COMPANY UPDATE | RETAIL SECTOR RAMAYANA LESTARI SENTOSA RALS IJ / RALS.JK 11 MAY 2016 Improvement in Apr-16 SSSG HOLD Target Price: IDR695 | Current Price: IDR680 PREVIOUS: HOLD RALS registered 4M16 net sales of IDR2tn (+0.8% YoY) which is in line with our FY16 estimate and 6-years historical average of 25%. In the same period, RALS booked posi- Up/Downside : 2.2% tive SSSG at 1.5% despite still negative SSSG in Rest of Java region at 0.6%. Having said that, there is a positive catalyst to RALS’ revenue and SSSG in coming month given Leba- ran and back-to-school season which usually contribute about 40% on average to RALS’ PRICE PERFORMANCE revenue. We reiterate our Hold recommendation and maintain our target price of IDR695/share. Apr-16 net sales (+4.7% YoY) The company booked Apr-16 net sales of IDR512.4bn (+4.7% YoY) given low base impact last year. This brought 4M16 net sales to IDR2tn (+0.8% YoY) which is in line with our FY16 expectation and 6-years historical average of 25%. Positive SSSG in all regions In Apr-16, RALS posted positive SSSG in all regions (Greater Jakarta, Rest of Java and Outer Islands of 7.6%, 3.8% and 4.3% respectively). This brought 4M16 SSSG at 1.5% with Rest of Java region still booked negative SSSG at 0.6%. Having said that, there is 52-week price range (IDR) 490 - 845 positive catalyst to RALS’ revenue and SSSG in coming months given Lebaran and back YTD change (IDR / %) 45 / 6.98 -to-school season which usually contribute about 40% on average to RALS’ revenue. YTD JCI return (%) 3.96 There is no new store expansion in Apr-16. Market cap (IDRbn) 4896.24 Free float (%) 40.46 Reiterate Hold recommendation We reiterate our Hold recommendation and maintain our TP of IDR695/share. Currently, the company trades at 13.4x 2016F PER. STOCK PERFORMANCE 1M 3M 12M Absolute -2.9% 10.6% -10.5% JCI Return -1.7% 0.6% -8.1% Relative -1.1% 9.9% -2.4% SHAREHOLDERS EXHIBIT 1. Financial Summary YE to Dec IDRbn 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F PT Ramayana Makmur Sentosa 55.88% Revenue 5,861 5,533 5,832 6,099 6,531 Paulus Tumewu 3.66% EBITDA 495 421 424 431 447 Public 40.46% Net Profit 356 336 358 398 448 EPS (IDR) 50.1 47.6 50.8 56.5 63.5 EPS Growth (%) (8.9) (4.9) 6.6 11.2 12.3 Johanes Prasetia DPS (IDR) 30.0 27.2 23.8 25.4 28.2 [email protected] PE (x) 13.6 14.3 13.4 12.0 10.7 PB (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.1 8.5 9.1 8.4 7.5 Dividend Yield (%) 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.7 4.2 Payout Ratio (%) 54.5 54.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 ROE (%) 10.9 10.1 10.9 11.4 12.2 Net Gearing (%) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas Please see disclosure and disclaimer at the back of this report BCA Vista BCA Indonesia Morning Digest 12 MAY 2016 STOCK'S VALUATION P/E EV/EBITDA EPS Growth TP (IDR) P/E EV/EBITDA EPS Growth TP (IDR) 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cons 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cons RETAIL CONSUMER ACES 25.3 22.4 17.8 15.9 4.9 12.9 929 AISA 12.2 9.3 7.4 6.3 (5.4) 30.7 1,418 AMRT 39.1 30.0 10.2 8.8 36.8 30.4 678 ASII 15.5 13.8 12.9 11.7 19.9 13.1 7,074 LPPF 24.9 21.3 18.0 15.6 21.8 16.9 19,924 GGRM 19.7 17.3 11.8 10.6 7.8 14.7 76,694 MAPI 30.8 17.2 8.0 6.7 483.9 78.6 5,066 ICBP 25.2 22.9 16.1 14.5 19.5 10.1 16,673 MPPA 26.7 20.7 9.7 7.5 36.6 48.5 2,147 INDF 16.2 14.3 9.0 8.1 30.7 13.6 8,387 RALS 14.0 12.8 6.6 6.0 3.9 9.3 802 KLBF 28.0 24.5 18.2 15.9 9.5 14.1 1,486 Simple Avg 26.8 20.7 11.7 10.1 98.0 32.8 ROTI 26.8 22.0 14.3 12.2 2.7 21.6 1,462 UNVR 52.8 47.2 37.3 33.4 9.5 11.8 40,349 CEMENT SIDO 16.3 14.5 10.3 9.0 6.1 12.7 600 INTP 14.8 13.8 9.0 8.2 #N/A N/A 7.3 19,848 Simple Avg 23.6 20.6 15.3 13.5 11.1 15.8 SMCB 29.1 20.5 7.9 7.1 59.4 41.4 1,031 SMGR 12.1 10.6 7.4 6.8 4.8 13.5 11,591 MINING Simple Avg 18.6 15.0 8.1 7.4 32.1 20.8 ADRO 12.9 12.9 5.5 5.6
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