Download Download

Volume 11 – Issue 2 – May 2015 Global Development in the Twenty-first Century Predictive Analytics for Policy and Practice: Ross Garnaut 3 reflections from the criminal justice system with commentaries by Tim Hughes 37 Gary Hawke 15 Decentralisation: does the New Zealand Economic Policy, External and Internal, local government system measure up? and Public Policy Mike Reid 45 Grant M. Scobie 20 Growing Community Housing: challenges Commentary on ‘Global Development for government policy and community providers in the Twenty-first Century’ Richard Norman and Bernard Teahan 54 Geoff Bertram 23 Protecting the Rights of Future Generations: Garnaut versus Piketty: are constitutional mechanisms an answer? inequality in the coming century Jonathan Boston and Thomas Stuart 60 The Inequality Debate: the neglected role Governance of National Parks at the of residential sorting Crossroads: New Zealand’s silent reform Philip S. Morrison 72 Valentina Dinica 26 Editorial Note This issue of Policy Quarterly leads with a stimulating Second, despite the available scientific evidence, contribution by the distinguished Australian economist, political resistance to concerted mitigation efforts Professor Ross Garnaut. Professor Garnaut was remains strong in some countries. In the US, many Volume 11 – Issue 2 – May 2015 the 2015 Sir Frank Holmes Fellow in Public Policy, influential Republicans continue to live in denial, with Policy Quarterly (PQ) is targeted at readers hosted by the Institute for Governance and Policy the Chair of the Senate’s Committee on Environment in the public sector, including politicians and Studies in the School of Government at Victoria and Public Works, Jim Inhofe, maintaining that their staff, public servants and a wide variety of University of Wellington. The article in this issue is anthropogenic climate change is a ‘hoax’. Closer to professions, together with others interested in based on his Sir Frank Holmes Memorial Lecture on New Zealand, the Australian Prime Minister, Tony public issues. Its length and style are intended 25 February on ‘Global Development in the Twenty- Abbott, wants his country to be an ‘energy superpower’ to make the journal accessible to busy readers. First Century’. Given the nature and significance of – not a renewable energy superpower, but a fossil The journal welcomes contributions of Professor Garnaut’s lecture, it seemed fitting to invite fuel superpower. In his view, there are ‘few things about 4,000 words, written on any topic several leading New Zealand economists to offer their more damaging to our future than leaving coal in the relating to governance, public policy and management. Articles submitted will be reflections. Accordingly, I am delighted to publish ground’. At the opening of a new $4.2 billion Caval reviewed by members of the journal’s Editorial commentaries by Emeritus Professor Gary Hawke, Ridge coalmine in Queensland in mid-October 2014, he Board and/or by selected reviewers, depending Dr Grant Scobie and Dr Geoff Bertram. I have invited declared that ‘coal is good for humanity’, ‘vital for the on the topic. Although issues will not usually Professor Garnaut to respond to these commentaries, future energy needs of the world’ and should not be have single themes, special issues may be if he wishes, and any such response will be carried in demonized. The opening marked, he asserted, ‘a great published from time to time on specific or the August issue. day for the world’ … ‘The trajectory should be up and general themes, perhaps to mark significant Professor Garnaut has made an immense up and up in the years and decades to come’. No, he events. In such cases, and on other occasions, contribution to public life in Australia over many was not referring to global temperatures! Nor did he contributions may be invited from particular decades – as an academic, senior policy adviser, mention carbon capture and storage. people. diplomat and businessman. He has also been an Fortunately, Abbott’s vision of a coal-driven Subscriptions: The journal is available in PDF influential voice on a range of important international future for Australia looks increasingly untenable. For format on the Institute for Governance and Policy Studies (IGPS) website: http://igps. policy issues, not least trade liberalization and one thing, China is in the process of pursuing a new victoria.ac.nz/publications/publications/list/10. anthropogenic climate change. economic paradigm where low-carbon technologies Readers who wish to receive it by email should On the latter topic, his article in Policy Quarterly will ultimately be dominant. For another, a growing register as PQ subscribers [email protected]. highlights both the gravity of the problem, but also number of major international banks – such as This service is free. the potential for global greenhouse gas emissions to Barclays, Citi, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and BNP For all subscription and membership be reduced rapidly over the next few decades. One Paribus – are refusing to fund large new coal mines in enquiries please e-mail [email protected] or reason for such optimism is the decline in the short- Australia, including the related infrastructure for such post to Institute for Government and Policy to-medium term costs of climate change mitigation mines (e.g. railway networks and port facilities). Studies, P.O. Box 600, Wellington. – certainly relative to the costs projected by most Meanwhile, in New Zealand the National-led Electronic Access: The IGPS directs analysts only a few years ago. As Garnaut points out, government has an unconditional target to reduce interested individuals to its website: www.igps. ‘the costs of new, low-carbon technologies are falling greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050 compared victoria.ac.nz where details of the Institute’s publications and upcoming events can be faster than anticipated, especially with large-scale with 1990 levels. Unfortunately, it has no long-term found. production of capital goods in China and deployment in strategy to achieve this target – as Adrian Macey (our Permission: In the interest of promoting debate many countries’. The cost of solar power, in particular, former Climate Change Ambassador) pointed out in a and wider dissemination, the IGPS encourages has declined dramatically in recent years, and both previous issue of Policy Quarterly. Not merely has the use of all or part of the papers appearing in solar and wind power are now competitive with modern government rendered the emissions trading scheme PQ, where there is no element of commercial coal and gas-powered electricity plants in many largely ineffective, it continues to support various gain. Appropriate acknowledgement of both countries. Further substantial falls in the cost of some high-emissions initiatives, such as the expansion of author and source should be made in all cases. renewable energy sources are expected. Ultimately, dairying, increased tourism and deep-sea oil and gas The IGPS retains copyright. Please direct this will be highly important, not least politically, since exploration. At some point – and possibly soon – the requests for permission to reprint articles from it will undermine one of the core objections to swift conflict between the goals of a high carbon future this publication to [email protected]. decarbonisation of the energy and transport sectors. and a low-carbon future will become politically Co-Editors: Jonathan Boston and Bill Ryan Editorial Board: Guy Beatson, David Bromell, Against such optimism, two matters deserve unsustainable. Valentina Dinica, Don Gray, Gerald Minnee, note. First, with almost every passing week the news Aside from the stimulating contributions of Mike Reid and Andrea Schollmann. from scientists on the harmful impacts of climate Professor Garnaut and his commentators, this issue ISSN: 2324-1098 (Print) change gets grimmer. Recent findings suggest that of Policy Quarterly also includes important articles on ISSN: 2324-1101 (Online) parts of the East Antarctic and West Antarctic ice a range of other contemporary policy concerns. These Volume 11, Issue 2 – May 2015 sheets are melting more quickly than previously include the governance of our National Parks in an Copy Editor: Rachel Barrowman estimated. Several teams of scientists, for instance, era of increasing commercial imperatives, the use of Design & Layout: Aleck Yee have concluded that a collapse of the West Antarctic predictive analytics in policy-making, the nature and Cover design: Aleck Yee ice sheet has already commenced, and may well be implications of governmental decentralisation, the Production: Alltex Design unstoppable. A rise in the sea level from this source future of social housing, protecting the interests of Proof Reader: Vic Lipski alone could exceed three meters. Meanwhile, there are future generations, and the implications of residential currently droughts of historic proportions in California sorting for inequality. I trust that all readers find and Brazil, and projected El Niño conditions during something in this issue to stimulate their hearts, minds 2015 could well contribute to severe bleaching of many and imaginations! coral reefs with damaging implications for the marine environment globally. Jonathan Boston (Co-editor) Ross Garnaut Global Development in the Twenty- New Zealand in the 1980s through to the early years first Century of this century. I discussed Asia–Pacific cooperation with I am glad to be here at Victoria University of Wellington Frank on many occasions giving this lecture in honour

Load more