The rescheduling of Tokyo 2020 and ’s Foreign Policy Ryosuke Hanada

VOL 8 INDO-PACIFIC ANALYSIS BRIEFS 2020 INDO-PACIFIC ANALYSIS BRIEFS 2020 The Perth USAsia Centre’s Indo- Pacific Analysis Briefs seek to provide perceptive and contemporary insights from across the region. The series features leading analysts from Asia, Australia and the US to deliver up-to- the-minute assessments on issues of national and regional importance. This series will shine a light on the issues that remain critically important to Australia and the Indo-Pacific at a time when global events may otherwise dominate the news cycle.

AUTHOR Ryosuke Hanada Indo-Pacific Fellow, Perth USAsia Centre

Ryosuke Hanada is Indo-Pacific Fellow at the Perth USAsia Centre. He had been a Research Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs until March 2020, researching Japan’s foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region and secretariat of the Council of Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) Japan. Mr Hanada experienced fellowship programs, including Japan-US Partnership Program of the Research Institute of Peace and Security (RIPS), Young Strategist Forum of the German Marshall Fund (GMF) and Strategic Japan Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He is currently pursuing his PhD at the Crawford School of Public Policy, the Australian National University (ANU). He acquired Bachelor in Law, , Tokyo and Master of Arts in International Politics, the University of Warwick, the United Kingdom. 3 The rescheduling of Tokyo 2020 and Japan’s Foreign Policy

KEY POINTS

→ The 2020 Tokyo Olympics have been postponed due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

→ This has posed major challenges for Japan – both in terms of arranging alternative options, and its broader diplomacy efforts.

→ Given uncertainty surrounding how the pandemic will develop, the final outcome for a rescheduled Tokyo games remains unclear.

→ The rescheduling has dented Japanese public diplomacy, but it could also be an opportunity to signal Japan’s commitment to cooperation and multilateralism in the international order.

The 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games have been rescheduled to the summer of 2021 due to the global spread of COVID-19. This is the first postponement in the history of the Olympics. Although this decision – officially announced on 30 March 2020 – was necessary for preventing a further spread of the virus, Japan has to bear additional costs for the postponement. It will need to revise its political and diplomatic schedule, as well as economic outlook for this and next year. The momentum for global cooperation is unlikely to derive from great powers, especially the United States and , in the current situation. In order to host the Olympic, a symbol of harmonious and peaceful international society, Japan now faces a set of economic and diplomatic challenges to accommodate this complex challenge.

4 The complex process of postponement The Tokyo Olympics were originally scheduled to take place in July and August 2020. Tokyo won the hosting of the Summer Olympic Games at the 125th International Olympic Committee (IOC) on The rescheduling of Tokyo 2020 and Japan’s Foreign Policy 7 September 2013. It has therefore been almost six and a half years since preparations began. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government calculated almost 32 trillion yen (USD 320 billion) from 2013 to 2030 as benefits of hosting the Olympics1. Direct economic impacts, such as construction, were expected to be 5.2 trillion yen, with much of the construction having already commenced or been completed. However, the planned to use the Olympics not only as an economic stimulus, but also to promote Japan’s public image. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has made efforts to present Tokyo 2020 as a symbol of a peaceful world, partnerships in Northeast Asia, and Japan’s rebuilding following the 2011 earthquake and nuclear crisis2. It also promoted sports diplomacy, namely Sport for Tomorrow projects, and made efforts to assist local municipalities in becoming host towns for foreign athletes3. As the coronavirus swiftly and unexpectedly spread in early 2020, concerns over holding the Olympics increased, as such a huge international event would inevitably increase the risk of contagion. Yet as of mid-February, the IOC and Japanese Organizing Committee (JOC), denied the possibility of either cancellation or postponement. It was only by the end of February, when the coronavirus had spread globally, that the JOC and IOC gradually indicated that the Olympics should not go ahead as originally planned4. The government’s priorities were forced to shift, from ‘going ahead’ to ‘avoiding cancellation’. On the 13th March, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo called President to explain Japan’s current situation, as Trump had recently argued for a one-year postponement5. Although Japan did not officially support the idea of postponement at this stage, it was a positive response to Trump’s discussions on the issue. Abe started using the term a ‘complete’ (kanzen na katachi no) Olympics after G7 summit meeting on the 16th.6 This implied Japan’s desire to avoid an outright cancellation, or the hosting of a games to empty stadia. On 22 March, IOC President Thomas Bach denied that the Olympics would be cancelled. While Japan was relieved with this reaffirmation,7 JOC members and even the general public were still uncertain about IOC’s intention to “finalise these discussions within the next four weeks”. The Government of Japan set up a telephone meeting between Abe and Bach just two days later, and Abe suggested a year-long postponement, given the increasing number of coronavirus infections both in Japan and globally8. As neither the Japanese nor Tokyo Metropolitan Government had the authority to make the final decision, the IOC eventually announced the postponement on 30 March9. 5 The rescheduling of Tokyo 2020 and Japan’s Foreign Policy

COVID-19 and Japan’s Foreign Policy Japan’s handling of the rescheduling debate avoided an outright cancellation of the 2020 games. However, while Japan and IOC have announced the rescheduled date as the summer of 2021, it is still uncertain whether they can hold the games in July as normally scheduled. This is because of several unknown issues, such as the spread of the virus in developing countries, the lack of consensus on criteria for reopening up borders, and the invention of an effective vaccine or other effective medical treatments. The fixed date of the postponement is also controversial. A Japanese public policy expert open- mindedly suggested the postponement of “more than a year” because of the uncertainty around COVID-19, or the option of holding the games in spring 2021 or 202210. In canvassing these options, Japan is presenting itself a responsible host of the first Olympics in the post-COVID world. While a fixed date would provide certainty and help reduce costs, flexibility allows Japan to present itself as a responsible leader that will consider all feasible options. Japan has also engaged in other forms of public diplomacy designed to support a successful Olympics. It has actively contributed to the fight against coronavirus, and led efforts to sustain international communication and cooperation. • Japan has held nine leaders-level meetings and fifteen foreign ministerial meetings (via phone) on COVID-19 responses since 1 April. • On 7 April – the same day Japan declared a state of emergency – MOFA announced that Japan will grant USD 100 million to assist countries heavily affected by the coronavirus11. • As one of the feature projects, Japan will grant Avigan – a medication used in Japan to treat influenza and is also believed to be an effective remedy for coronavirus – to countries through the United Nations Office for Project Services12. • Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi expressed that Japan will provide USD 340 million to Pacific Island countries for technological assistance and medical equipment via the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the International Red Cross13. As a response to protectionist movements, Japan and ASEAN released the “Joint Statement on Initiatives on Economic Resilience in Response to the COVID-19 outbreak”. This statement reiterated their commitment to economic integration, particularly by supporting digital technology and supply chain resilience14. Japan and Australia issued a similar joint ministerial statement which reaffirms their commitment to the multilateral trading system, efforts to build resilient supply chains, and the development of international trade rules for the digital economy15. These commitments will enhance Japan’s voice on issues of economic recovery and integration the post-COVID era. The Tokyo Olympics as a symbol of Japan in the global order The Olympics are a symbol of international commitment to promote peaceful society. In hosting the Olympics, Japan is signaling its commitment to international cooperation in harmonious ways, which means using multilateral organisations. By contrast, China has deployed “COVID aid” around the world on a bilateral basis; while the US has shown intentions to withdraw its support for many multilateral agencies, including the World Health Organisation. Despite these approaches by the world’s two super-powers, Japan 6 has argued that contributing to multilateralism is vital for sustaining a free, open and inclusive international order. In this way, hosting the Olympics is an important component in Japan’s foreign policy toolkit, far The rescheduling of Tokyo 2020 and Japan’s Foreign Policy beyond the direct impacts of the Games themselves. It remains unclear whether the Olympics will be held next year. Japan has to muddle through various challenges, including managing public fear regarding coronavirus, revising its plan of how to use the Olympics for its foreign policy, and mobilising funds to cover additional costs of the postponement. If a Tokyo Games does not go ahead, the next Olympics will be the Winter Games in Beijing in 2022. As the pandemic sees US-China confrontation exacerbated, holding the Olympic Games in Japan during in this historic time seems extremely important not just for Japan, but for the world.

Endnotes

1 Tokyo Metropolitan Government (2020), 東京 2020 大会開催に伴う経済波及効果（試算結果のまとめ）(The Economic Impact of the Tokyo 2020 Games [Summary of Calculations]), https://www.2020games.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/9e1525ac4c454d171c82338c5a9b4c8a_1.pdf 2 Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Japan) (2020), 2020年東京オリンピック・パラリンピック競技大会に向けた外務省の取り組み (Activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Towards the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games), https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/p_pd/ep/ page24_000800.html 3 MOFA (2016), Sport for Tomorrow（SFT）プログラム (Sport for Tomorrow Program), https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/p_pd/ep/ page22_001221.html 4 Reuters (2020), ‘World health would have to be at stake to cancel Tokyo Games: Pound’, 27 February; Wall Street Journal (2020), ‘If Olympics Can’t Be Held This Summer, Best to Postpone 1-2 Years: Japan Organizing Official’, March 10. 5 Kyodo News (2020), ‘Abe tells Trump Japan prepping for Tokyo Olympics as planned’, 13 March, https://english.kyodonews.net/ news/2020/03/16b6bc6f39e0-breaking-news-abe-trump-to-hold-telephone-talks-on-coronavirus-outbreak.html 6 Reuters (2020), ‘Japan’s Abe says G7 supports ‘complete’ Games, polls back postponement’, 17 March. 7 IOC (2020), Health and safety paramount as IOC Executive Board agrees to step up scenario planning for the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020, 22 March, https://www.olympic.org/news/health-and-safety-paramount-as-ioc-executive-board-agrees-to-continue-scenario- planning-for-the-olympic-games-tokyo-2020 8 NHK (2020), 東京五輪・パラ １年延期の裏側 (The True Story of the 1 year postponement of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics), https://www.nhk.or.jp/politics/articles/feature/32725.html 9 IOC (2020), IOC, IPC, Tokyo 2020 Organising Committee and Tokyo Metropolitan Government announce new dates for the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020, 30 March, https://www.olympic.org/news/ioc-ipc-tokyo-2020-organising-committee-and-tokyo- metropolitan-government-announce-new-dates-for-the-olympic-and-paralympic-games-tokyo-2020 10 Hirotaka Watanabe (2020),【提言】東京五輪「3.11開催も」日本外交の「見識」を示せ (Recommendation: Show the ‘insight’ of Japanese diplomacy, Option for ‘3.11 event’ of the Tokyo Games), 11 April, https://www.fsight.jp/articles/-/46781 11 MOFA (2020), 茂木外務大臣会見記録（令和2年4月7日（火曜日）11時15分 (Foreign Minister Motegi’s Press Conference Record, 7 April 2020), https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/kaiken/kaiken4_000942.html 12 The medicine was provided to Lithuania on 8 May, and will expand to Luxemburg, Albania, Georgia, Hungary and more than 30 other countries under consultation. 13 MOFA (2020), 日・フィジー外相電話会談 (Japan-Fiji Foreign Ministers Telephone Meeting, 13 April 2020), https://www.mofa.go.jp/ mofaj/press/release/press4_008411.html 14 Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI) (2020), ‘ASEAN-Japan Economic Ministers’ Joint statement on Initiatives on Economic Resilience”, 22 April, https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2020/0422_001.html 15 METI (2020), 梶山経済産業大臣が豪州バーミンガム貿易・観光・投資大臣とTV会談を行いました, 2020年5月18日 (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Kajiyama held a videoconference with Australia’s Minister of Trade, Tourism and Investment Birmingham, 18 May 2020), https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2020/05/20200518003/20200518003.html About the Perth USAsia Centre The Perth USAsia Centre, located at The University of Western Australia, is a nonpartisan, not- for-profit institution strengthening relationships and strategic thinking between Australia, the Indo-Pacific and the USA. The Centre is a leading think tank focusing on geopolitical issues, policy development and building a strategic affairs community across government, business and academia. Since the Centre’s inception in 2013, the Centre has collaborated with over thirty 7 partners to convene more than four hundred events across sixteen cities in eight countries, engaging a world-class community of more than 10,000 strategic thinkers and leaders. The rescheduling of Tokyo 2020 and Japan’s Foreign Policy

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