January 6, 2020 Philippine Macro & Strategy 2020 Outlook Analysts Playing the domestic growth story A healthy macro backdrop in 2020, with forecast +6.3% real GDP growth Equity: and further easing of monetary policy amid moderate inflation outlook and stable Peso, underpins our positive equity market outlook. Continued Katherine Tan ramp-up in government and investment spending, and greater private (63) 2 8849 8843
[email protected] sector participation in a growing list of infra projects, provide upside to growth, while structural reforms re optimizing tax rates and investment Romel Libo-on STRATEGY incentives will have broadly positive impact on the PSEi. Base case is for (63) 2 8849 8844 high single digit market earnings growth to sustain in 2020, with higher-
[email protected] beta sectors (i.e. banks, property), construction and consumer favoured. Kayzer Llanda Macro: Robust momentum to continue (63) 2 8849 8839
[email protected] MACRO & MACRO GDP growth is expected to strengthen to +6.3% in 2020 (2019E: +6.0%) on additional monetary easing by BSP via another 25bps interest rate cut Fredrick De Guzman (2019: -75bps) and further -300bps RRR cut (2019: -400bps), and fiscal (63) 2 8849 8847 stimulus from a larger 2020 budget (+12% YoY) and spillover of unutilized
[email protected] 2019 spending allocation (valid to end-2020). Expansion in the number of Macro: public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects and implementation of Corporate Income Tax and Incentive Rationalisation Suhaimi Ilias Act (CITIRA), which reduces corporate tax from 30% to 20% by 2029, will (603) 2297 8682 broadly reinvigorate private (domestic and foreign) investment.